Shocking - Dublin. FFS what a terrible second half performance, I'm gutted because normally I'd be over the moon like the rest of the country with Dublin losing but I backed the hoors. Evens at HT was a good price IMO, Dublin are mostly a second half team, most games are close at HT anyway and I thought Dublin were the better team in the first half. Cue four goals from Meath, four FFS, its meltdown when a team gets two in a game ever mind five. Possession was 50/50, Dublin had 13 scores Meath had 14 scores, Dublin had 13 wides by the 50th minute. The problem? Meath 5-09 Dublin 0-13. The goals absolutely hammered me, I still thought The Dubs would win after the second Meath goal, there was only three points in it at that stage, but two quick goals later the market was in the 1.0x's from 1.8s.
Dublin hitting the post three times was a kick in the balls too, it just wouldnt go over, I dont mind teams scoring you know, GAA is suppose to ebb and flow, you score we score you score we score etc etc, but Dublin would miss and then Meath would score a goal never mind a point. Thats the first time in six years theyve lost in Leinster, I stand by the price and bet so you know no real issues there, just let down by a horrible performance and what I expected from them.
Too close - England beating the Aussies, what a feckin' sweat at the end, that 1.04 lay in the middle of the collapse was one of the best bets I've ever had, 185/4 to 203/9 chasing 212.
Cricket: €59.98 | Gaelic Games: -€163.00 Total P&L: -€103.02
Still a losing day of €100, but sure theres not much I could have done different much like yesterday so I'll just get on with it without thinking about it. The good thing is, I miscounted yesterday when I thought I was up €200, I was actually up €300 at the time, so the week finished €200 in profit.. after being €550 on Friday night. What an odd weekend, normally its level until Thursday then kick on, completely opposite.
Boxing, cricket, tennis all been excellent. GAA has really let me down, but its normally always a good winner each week, Kildare at 1.65 was a good bet IMO, three points up with minutes to go and to throw it away was head wrecking. Dublin at evens was also a good bet at the time, conceding five goals in a game is nearly "amazing scenes," so I was a bit hung, drawn and and quartered there. I'll been let down by performances more so than being a mug, in my head anyway. The horses from Betfair was just an arb, minus €500 with WH, I've done nothing else.
Weak finish but good week, annoying the way it ended up but if offered €200 at the start I would have taken it I suppose. I'm in London most of next week and exam results are out Wednesday (!) so next week might be a bit bare on the posting front. Will still definitely do the screen shot whether I bet or not on Sunday though because it keeps me disciplined.
Anyway, theres the little matter of a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 in todays Irish Derby to celebrate. Coolmore haters are SEETHING, I love it. It was a seriously weak renewal but its still a 1-2-3 and should keep the 'APOB finnish' mob quiet for at least a week or two. It doesnt take much to get them going again, however.
I also have to sort out my CV for tomorrow morning as I intend to apply for the soon to be vacant England managers job, I will take less wages than the other fella and settle for £3M a year, and only ask for my holidays when Royal Ascot, Cheltenham, Aintree, Irish Champion Stakes, The Arc and The Breeders Cup are on. I also sleep in until 12ish each day so wouldnt want to start training until 2 or so. Assistants apply within please.
We are fooking useless! First we cant beat Louth and then draw with Antrim after being three points ahead the whole game, two points ahead with minutes to go, the only game still going FFS. 17 (yes 17!) wides. Brutal. The worst part is I backed the mugs as well.
Climbed into Durham a bit too much earlier when Taylor was batting, then he went and another wicket too, I was in a bit of bother, happy enough with a loss of €50, it was a straight train to 1.01 after and I had €175ish red on Northants at the time, could of easily let ego get in the way or whatever and leave it, took my medicine. One of those markets where I lose, but I'm as happy as I can be with losing, even though no one likes losing, but it was a bad position got out of at the end of the day.
Remember When lost too adding €70. So its a losing day of €230, I'm not too bothered about the money, I got the horse at 11/4 and she was 7/4 no issues there, I got out of the cricket well with a loss of €50, its just Kildare being absolutely pap has me in a bad humor, useless bar-stewards, buggered if I'm going to Croke Park if they win, they can stick it! Leinster final last year, cant kick a ball this year.
I suppose another point is, I went to all the trouble at the beginning of the year when I was level from January to March to see what to change, and it was obvious I'm ten times better in running than pre-off, so I made an effort to quit pre-off, I've won nearly 3k since discovering that. Lost €180 today pre-off. The Kildare market wasnt going inplay so my hand was forced, but I really should just give up pre-off and make no exceptions.
Still a good week though, no complaints and no knocks in confidence or good feeling, just FFS kildare!
Minus €500 with William Hill on the horse arb, so its worse than Betfair looks. I'm still plus €200 this week so happy enough and where I want to be, ahead, probably just take it easy tomorrow and settle the ship as always after a losing day.
Essex needed 78 off the last 5 overs to win, needed 22 of the last over to win, Scotty Styris hit 106 off 50 balls, plus the ground was packed the atmosphere was amazing, it was unreal viewing, 1.01 busto obviously coming from that position.
Then in the boxing, McDermott v Fury was amazing again, Fury was 5-0 up (IMO), when he started to look completely shot for energy, odds went from 1.2 Fury to 1.5 McDermott in one round without a knockout or big punch, never seen it before. I was thinking if Fury could get to the bell, sure he nearly had the fight in the bag with the rounds in the bank he didnt have to do much, had a lay, then McDermott was goosed for energy and couldnt stand. Unreal viewing, Fury said after he hurt his hand in the 5th, maybe that was the blip, but what a market, swung down, swung up, swung down, that never happens in boxing.
Been some serious sport on this week, England beating the Aussies from 1.25, Isner v Mahut, Fedex looking finnish in the first round, I heard 1.01 got busted in some game today but not sure which, Scotty Styris innings, plus the World Cup and then what a fight that was. Its Irish Derby weekend too, I'd normally be well "up for it" but it looks a terrible renewal, but the sport going on this week, its just amazing.
Its not even the weekend yet, normally everything happens the weekend. You'd have to go a long way to top weekday sport this summer.
One small drawback is I'm nearly running on empty myself, cant see where to take a day off either, I've been sleeping in longer and longer as the week has been going on, Royal Ascot last week feels like a month ago and that was only last week. I'll go until I can go no more anyway, I'm back to London next week but thats for gambling reasons too so no rest for the wicked. I'll rest when were back to the jumping and its called off for snow!
I get my exam results next week too so I'll know what I'm doing with my life then (yeah bloody right!). "Where were you when that happened Stephen?" .. "I was on Betfair." Cant see that changing in the near future, but the thing niggling in the back of my head is what am I gonna do for the winter, there'll be no GAA, no cricket English hours, no flat racing and jump racing Mon-Fri last year bored the hell out of me, I wont be blessed with the sport thats on now, and I cant sit around the house you know, but I dont want to start a whole new commitment to a college course just because I've nothing better to do. As always the response to serious life questions is "I dont know."
Hills made a bit of a rick this morning at 2/1, I dont think she was ever going to be that big after that Oaks run.
Been able to lay a bit back on Betfair at 2.8, had €500 at 2/1 and obviously didnt want to have that much red on her when the stalls opened so was always hoping to lay off. I reckon she'll win, trip should be perfect, ground no problem and shes getting weight off Chinese White - who is the big danger as she loves The Curragh.
Anyway, laid €450 back at 2.8, so minus commission I should lose around €70 if shes beaten and get €190 if she wins. Got 11/4 by moving things around about a 7/4 shot, she still has to win though..
I remember saying the last time Australia were in England how toothless the English attack was and how their batting wasnt getting the high enough scores they could defend. Well, a few months later, its completely and utterly the opposite. I feel sorry for Ponting because he gets plenty of stick as the captain, when he just plainly hasnt got the bowling lineup to do what he needs to, and those no balls were absolutely criminal, 23 runs coming off no balls and free hits. Australia are gonna need to post 320+ to be confident of defending, and why arent Shaun Tait and Dirk Nannes in the team, must only see them as T20 bowlers is the only reason I can think of, but the likes of McKay, Hopes, Smith, Watson just arent good enough to trouble this English batting lineup.
Finally Isner v Mahut finished at 70-68 in the 5th set, FFS like! I know I was watching history and something that will never happen again, but I got awful bored watching it, seemed like it was never going to end.
Anyway no headache today which is good, same game time has Tuesday but had a banging headache after, happy no headache its important, and happy for England, happy for Morgan, happy faces all around.
McDermott v Fury rematch tomorrow and I'll be watching with interest because I was one of those who got fooked over by the terrible decision the last time (the graphs there too look at the straight line!). Naturally I think McDermott is a massive price at 9/4 - 2/1, but I would think that after last time, emotion might get in the way so its probably one to stay away from, but I would LUV IT (Kevin Keegan Style) if McDermott knocks Fury on his arse.
..Again, must be something in the water this week..
I'm still just under 20k from the chip leader though.
Still 2nd, down to 12, chip leader just won a 60k pot so hes got around 50k advantage.. just wanna sneak into the top 3/4 though at the moment. They all seem to be betting way more than me.
Down to the final table, guess whos first! Long, long, long way to go though..
2nd of 5, all I want is top three though. Leader has 100k+ more than me, but 4th and 5th are short stacked. Talk about nerves, Betfair is fooking easy to be calm compared to this..!
TOP TWO BOOOOOOOOOMM! 400k v 100k though, looks likes I'm 2nd.
12-30AM. Finally over, 2nd, small bit gutted not to get first in the end (what am I like!), got it to 300k v 200k and then busted with 9966 v ATT8, nothing hit on the flop/turn/river so he wins with tens, what an odd way to lose really (PLO you'd expect something bar just a pair). He kept trying to go awe-in preflop nearly every hand, it was a bugger.
What an amazing feeling though, bloody hell its nerve racking too! I had Ems watching on the couch beside me for the final table that was the worse thing ever for nerves. Like I said, Betfair is easy compared to that for being calm..!
Amazing though, I just searched the blog, I remember posting on the 3rd of March this year I went awe-in in a ring game without even knowing rules of PLO. Been playing/practicing since then though.
Ah, this is epic! Must be something in the water though clearly because my best position before this was 13th which was just on Monday a few posts below. Best get myself to WSOP before the weekend.. (wouldnt go that far).
I'm rabbiting on, I wont be able to sleep now anyway. I think if I move up to 40k GTD its 6k for first and 3.5k/2.5k-ish for 2nd/3rd, but sure this will probably never be topped. Amazing.
PS. Didnt have a bet on Betfair today, well actually did Inser v Mahut but its something like 50-50 in the last set going into tomorrow, I got fed up it went on that long FFS. Dont have a P&L until tomorrow with it anyway, or whenever they finish because it could go on and on and on for days the way they were playing.
I know its after the event now, and prices after the event take on a whole different complexion, its easy to look back and say this, this and this, when its difficult to react at the time. But anyway, Australia were matched in the 1.2s today and indeed traded in the 1.2s for maybe a good six overs going from around 32 to 26 left mark, the weird thing about it was the RRR only ONCE in the whole game went over 6, and then when it did, they got 10 off the next over to bring it back under again. I know the 1.2s was a reaction to a wicket going (Aus were 1.5ish before and the market feels it has to go somewhere), but like, its under a run a ball, how is it ever 1.2!?
If someone said to you now England won by 4 wickets with 4 overs to spare with their batting lineup (T20 Champions!) with the RRR a run a ball for the whole game, would you believe Australia were 1.2? I was actually on England before Australia hit the 1.2, I was pretty much in the shit at that stage if I was a "trader" with a stop loss etc etc, better for me to have a max bet rather than a stop loss, as always my best bet is to go with the flow and feeling at the time, I'd have rather lost the lot than red out at that price. Anyway, been staring at the computer screen since 2-00 so bit of a headache. Worth it though. Cricket: €183.16 | Tennis: €19.93 Total P&L: €203.09
The Bank Of Fedex today announced that it was staying on in the UK for the foreseeable future after rumors from the Betfair Seethers United Incorporation that it was seeking to relocate to Greece in search of a European bailout plan. Mr Federer commented "Finnish? I am Swiss, shut up!"
I wasnt actually at home today, was in my Grandads visiting on a Monday as usual, actually thought I was watching a replay or something when I saw the market at 1.4 when he was 2-0 down. I'm not a big tennis punter so my opinion isnt exactly shrewd but is that not a mad price..? I suppose he won in the end so you could argue the market knew, I wouldnt be too keen backing 1.4 shots 2-0 down though as a longterm plan. I lost a fiver on the womens matches too, feckin' women eh, ya never know what theyre up to.
Not much doing on the cricket tonight with an innings SP of 1.17, but nicked a tenner on wicket bounce outs.
Cricket: €11.39 | Tennis: €65.38 Total P&L: €76.77
On a bit of a deep run in PLO at the moment, were in and around the bubble now after the break but I'm sitting 9th, hoping for top three as it pays €1,000+, never been this far in a tournament, I am shitting it, seriously!
12-20AM. Busto, out in 13th, was in 4th when there was 32 left but wasnt to be. Best I've ever done though and a few quid into the tank anyway. I had JJA7 v QQK2, flop 666, they all went in.. time for bed.
Henry handball and making a general mug of himself in the World Cup.
Tiger and all his ridin' and now playing like a mug.
And now Federer 2-1 down (after being 2-0 down) and a break, against an unknown.
PS. Annoyed over Tiger last night, if he had only went around in par he won have nearly won it. Sunday at a major, everyone else dropping shots, the old Tiger would have eaten 'em for breakfast. The old Tiger would have never three putted on the first either. Had a right chuckle at the Johnson meltdown, never seen the likes of it.
Amazing how much of sport is in the head though, mental strength is obviously not there yet after all the stuff thats happened. On the positive side, at least I wont have to fly to London to collect. Negative side is I was going back next week anyway!
Market on the Fed game is fascinating, it doesnt *believe* that he can actually lose..
What a class weeks racing at Royal Ascot. I was the 'nearly man' all week until Starspangledbanner won easily, unreal speedster. As I said my main three were Samuel Morse - 4th, each way 1-2-3, always a bugger to finish 4th but he was the 4th best in the race, no complaints. Age Of Aquarius - 2nd beaten a neck, behind a hurdler might I add, happy it was an Irish horse though, and again 2nd best horse in the race, no complaints. Thank feck for Star though! For the blog, I had already backed him antepost here, absolutely delighted it was Bluesq, that tenner actually felt better than having €50 with another bookie.
Bluesq.. you can limit me but you still cant stop me winning, whos the daddy! Nearly all my punting was on course, no issues getting on, problems or anything like that, great week for everyone. I did also get €180 on Betfair off the horses, mostly off Star, it was level-ish before him. I did a fair bit of mug punting in fivers and tenners every race you know yourself, impossible not have a bet on a race when youre there, for me anyway.
Havent had the chance to do a Sky English domestic games but got a few bets that have been matched all week, about level-ish again when they all add up. But Ireland played Australia in Dublin on Thursday (I think), Aussies were SP 1.02 (1.02 FFS!), I dont care what two teams are playing, I'm laying an SP of 1.02, a grand for €20 red in limit overs cricket, is there any reason not to like! I think England were even worse at 1.01 to beat Holland the time they got turned over too, and didnt Ireland beat Pakistan at 1.01 a few years ago. Whatever about getting matched during the game, but it should never be SP in a sport like cricket (not including tests). Anyway, I had Cricinfo open on my phone and at one stage Ireland only needed RRR of 3.6 with 6 or 7 wickets left (cant remember exactly), really poor not winning from that position, most teams would bring that home, but sure anyway at least they gave me the chance to green out.
We actually have an OK-ish bowling lineup and are excellent at fielding, only have three solid batsmen though and the rest arent good enough. I'd say if we still had Morgan and Joyce in the middle order, we'd nearly be as good, if not better, than the likes of Bangladesh, Windies and Pakistan. Dont blame them for wanting to make a career for themselves though. Were still underrated IMO, the last time I did this we were against England, SP was 1.06, I laid that too, went awe-green, then it rained and got zilch, so I'm happy it was a result this time even though we lost.
I've tried doing the handicaps on the GAA today, not much money in the market though at 9.5pts and 16.5pts, cant blame people either, Kilkenny are the best team in the country and Cork SP was 1.02 against Limerick (lowest for GAA this year?). No action there for anyone really.
Havent looked forward to the golf tonight this much for a long time, say what you like about Tiger, but hes the man everyone wants to see. Tiger in contention in a major is just unreal viewing, only flew back at half four this morning but watched a bit of Johnson, he seems a complete luckbox, how the ball stayed where it was on 14 I dont know, and he keeps missing fairways but landing it safe, he landed it on the 10th teebox off the 18th teebox FFS, then made a birdie. The reason I stopped betting/trading on golf was because of these exact situations, Johnson no major wins, only two wins of any note on the tour - one was rained off last day so he had no pressure and the other one he fell over the line with a round of +2, he will have bottle issues IMO, but the bugger is he can play shite and still win. He has the two shot cushion and when youre laying him you need two things not just one, him to play poorly and the others to play well. He could easily play absolutely pap and still win by a shot. I put €50 on Tiger at 20s while in London by blind faith, totally cant have Johnson odds on and Tiger at 5ish is too big, I'll let my mug bet run. I say 'mug bet' because all my golf bets are mug bets so dont mind what I think..
Anyway, a good week, hopefully next week is fairly solid too. Last week I made some shocking plays but got out of it on Sunday, a kick in the balls though and I've looked after myself more this week. Maybe lost around €80ish in Ascot that could have been avoided but apart from that I've been OK in discipline terms and not taking too many chances. Back to being shrewd.. (that'll be the day!)
By the way, if anyone missed the Tiger 'life' programme on CH4 this week, you can watch it here, was very interesting to see how he was brought up, IMO he was brought up to be exactly like he is now to an absolute tee, including all the shagging etc, the only thing he did wrong, IMO, was get married. Thats all. Picture how many women the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo go through but you dont here anything about it because hes not married he can do what he likes, who cares sure. Amazing too what corporate America is like, they knew he was cheating in 2006 but the papers didnt run the story, he made 300Million between 2006 and when the story broke. Also goes to show though, theres no point ever getting bothered about what the press write, they write what they choose to, cant believe it all word for word. As always my opinion on any sportsman is, they can do what they like off the field it doesnt bother me in the slightest, only bothers me what they do on it that matters, also of the opinion that its very important not to hold grudges and hatred towards sportsmen because it gets in the way of your punting.
Speaking of which, Wayne Rooney, I dont see what he did wrong? Fans voice opinion. Rooney voices opinion. Its OK for the fans to do it but not Rooney? If they have such an issue with "spending money following them" and "paying their wages with jerseys" well then thats easily fixed. Dont bother going or supporting the team. I'm a United fan, but cringe every time I see the green and gold scarfs at Old Trafford. Think about it, youre "protesting" to the owners, yet you go to the game, pay for your ticket, pay for food, pay for the jersey, which is all going into the owners pockets, but dont worry youve got your scarf youre protesting! Brilliant idea lads.. PS. Norwich City scarf sellers were in clover this season.
Same with any team and sportsman as the England situation, support the team properly or just feck off and dont bother moaning when things go pear shaped. Booing a team to make them play better, who came up with that idea. Put yourself in another pair of shoes, if you go into work every morning and the bloke at the desk beside you turns and says right in your face "youre a cunt" at 9-05 every morning, would you like him? Odds on you wouldnt. But yet the fans still want the players to "play for them" after abusing them, human nature is to not care about them anymore, its no wonder players are so detached. Put yourself in another situation, your son finishes last in the school race, do you boo him? Do you tell him you wished you never rode his mother to have him? Your other half fails her driving test and comes home upset, do you boo her? "Oh thats different," its not different, the point is you dont boo your own..
The whole world revolves around the idea that, "its one rule for my situation, but another rule for everyone elses situation." Treat people how you expect to be treated yourself - no one does that with sportsmen.
Back to looking after myself and my position in the markets and no muggish positions taking chances in hope. I know gambling is 100% taking chances, but theres a shrewdness about it rather than a betting-in-hope-ness about it.
Like yesterday, when I backed Somerset I was hoping for a good start - didnt get it. When I backed England I was hoping for a goal and a good performance - didnt get it. Instead of just managing a position without hoping for something that might not come, can then have a read on things, obviously gonna be wrong loads of times but, you know, sitting on hands hoping for something rather than doing something about it, that sort of thing. I learned a lot yesterday though, it was shite discipline and will not (!) happen again, impossible to be 100% disciplined the whole time, just about sticking to my areas and not drifting off.
Another thing is too, obviously I bet everyday, but sometimes my betting style doesnt suit whats on, the market or whats happening. Fair enough then - I shouldnt bet. That is hard though, at times. That shouldnt even be an excuse though because the discipline and sticking to your markets should be just inbuilt into your gambling. To sum it up into one sentence, I was a mug yesterday. That does it nicely!
Anyway, today was good back to basics, the Dublin market was unreal in the last ten minutes, I was in the panic group too.. my book was Dublin €122, Wexford and the draw zero, so I was panicking trying to square up like everyone else.
Someone then made a huge mistake in extra time, Dubs had two players sent off, but the GAA have a rule saying they can come back to 15 players in extra time. Only caught €99 of evens though before he copped on, real price was around 1.4ish, laying back 1.1 was throwing away money though in hindsight. You know, I get called a Wayne-Keir for messing about with the GAA markets (after theyve finished even) etc, but betting in running, IMO, is all about catching people when they make mistakes. Thats basically my job, thats the thing to do, nick the wrong price. I'm not gonna ever apologise for doing it. I totally disagree with the "fast picture thieves" idea too, theyre basically doing their job well and better than most, its not their problem people put up wrong prices. Dont like it, dont put up prices, simple (IMO).
Much like the bookies, they can set up whatever overround they want, and if people bet into it, thats their problem. If we could lay it ourselves we would. Morals are low on the exchanges arent they! Put it this way though, you can a be shark or you can be a fish, no one is going to look after you anyway, youre on your own either way.
Anyway the week, pulled it back to levelish today. I'm annoyed the bad stuff cancels out the good stuff but sure it happens and happy to be level instead of losing. Delighted with the horses this week though, really good, profit of €175. About the horses in running - basically I know I'm not the greatest or indeed have the fastest pictures, so if I can eek out just say €20 a day, thats €7,300 a year, and €20 a day might seem like nothing to some, but €7k a year off whats now my 4th sport would be awesome. I dont start with the target of €20 each day though, targets lead to chasing IMO and its impossible to win everyday, so just take it as it comes and hopefully average the €20 a day. Say I meet that, thats €7k off the 4th sport out of four, then add cricket, boxing and GAA - it adds up quickly. Plus it gives cushion if I have bad times on the others.
I was an utter mug on the cricket this week, although I know what I did wrong and it wasnt where I'd normally be. Betting in the first innings is inexcusable, deserved to lose. Shite discipline. The football was worse..! I liked the odds yes, but its just not normally something I'd bet on, or do while betting on the cricket. Betting with no reason, mug betting, guessing, the lot.
Royal Ascot next week, cant wait, probably best three chances of a Coolmore winner for me anyway are Samuel Morse, Starspangledbanner and Age of Aquarius. Epic racing all week though to look forward to..
For the first time, in maybe over a month, I found myself in bother in a cricket market with looking at a €100+ loss..
I know exactly what I did wrong too. The only reason I havent found myself in bother lately is because I've been betting while the innings is ongoing rather than taking a view before the start. They lost, but 1.6ish at HT to chase 18 under par average score on that pitch was a cracking bet, no problems, but it does leave me open to things going arseways.. like they did. Two opening batsmen went in the first three overs. The annoying thing too was, I didnt go awe-red at 1.5 after I took the screen shot because I thought that was more of a lay than a back, then it flip flopped, but never got back to my price.
Its a weird one to explain, the 1.6ish was a good bet IMO, but it was a poor position to be in. Its like poker, you wanna get your chips in, in good position and as the favourite. It was just a poor position and left the door open to losing. Compare that to betting while the innings is going on, where you can get out of most positions for small red and start again. I did learn though, it wont happen again, have a little look at the innings before I back, rather than pre-judge events. Although it was pretty bad luck losing two wickets early (caught on the ropes too FFS), if I havent of backed at HT, I wouldnt have been open to that going wrong in the first place.
Like I said, its hard to explain, but if I'm betting while the innings is on, that leaves me less open to things going wrong and taking less chance. Good bet, but poor position for things going wrong.
Anyway, I was hung, drawn and quartered in the GAA with that goal in the last few minutes, laid Fermanagh, Cavan were finishing much the better, level game, Fermanagh looked finnish and tired, boom goal, good night Stephen. A fellow tried to catch it, it bounced off his head and went to another fellow, and he stuck it away. FFS. Wasnt that much money in the market though so only minus €22.
I dont normally bet on football, but opened the England market yesterday expecting to see around 1.35ish, saw they were 1.56! Amazing price (IMO anyway), no issues win or lose backing that. It would have to happen though, when I back them, what a fooking mistake by the keeper, Jesus Christ. Just capped off a really "unlucky" evening, amazing how one bad market effects the next ones, cricket was my fault.. then the GAA and soccer was completely unreal how unlucky I was. And FFS I hate football! Emile Heskey would not be able to score in a Thai brothel giving out free hand jobs on a Saturday night after pub closing hours.
Behind around €150 this week, been a touch unlucky today but have been a serious mug at times, dunno what the story is with me.. will take it a bit easy tomorrow now. Probably a case of you make your own luck, a few bad bets and then you get stupid mistakes like Rob Greens going against you rather than for you.
Its so easy to lose money when you play loose though. Yesterday finished €75 up but today undone that plus another €100. I suppose the only good thing is I know what I did wrong, still terrible though, discipline and 'good bet picking' went out the window at times.
The €55 betting in the first innings during the week. The €150 betting at HT today. The €150 on soccer. All absolutely terrible discipline in hindsight, I liked the price but not normally my style you know, and no one bar myself to point the finger at really. A kick up the arse indeed..
On the horses by the way, the minus €1,530 was an arb, it isnt as bad as the screen shot looks..! I got €1,600 from the books. (Below).
4/1 widely available with the books. People wanting to back 3/1 on Betfair. No problem.
I've no real opinion on the horse, hes not much good, but its a 'not much good' sort of race really.
€70 if he wins. €85ish if he loses.
On the subject of "filthy arbing," I'm not an arber at all, but you know if people are going to make it this easy, I mean its free money..
I think Betfair have a lot to do with it really and truly, remember the "20% better odds" campaign at the start, I think people just assume theyre better without looking, still taking 4 and under as I write when its 100/30 with William Hill, Coral and Independents.
It does "feel" like a bookies gamble though, the only money matched on the graph over €100 has been me.
Bit of a mare on the cricket last night for an awe-red screen..
I was a mug. Had a bit of a busy day, came home and had that mood of having a bet to relax (you know the one), gambled in the first innings - I have a rule not to trade/bet/do anything while the first innings is on, so I was breaking rules and just being an utter gobshite really. I deserved it.
In a weird way, sometimes I think to myself I'm improving a bit because when I'm having mares now in a market I'm losing less than I was before, but still turning over more. I think thats Gruss more than me though, it seemed to change/improve when I started using all my custom columns and stuff.
I've already touched on my opinion of having maximum respect for people who gamble part-time in a serious way when they come home from work. I dont even work, but when my daytime is in any way busy that isnt my normal routine and I gamble in the evening, I'm awful. Timing, focus, etc all goes out the window.
More settled with myself today and done in running, was up €60 at one stage but just dropped €40 over two straight races at Haydock, feeling a bit tilted so the computers going off and I'm out for a pint to forget about it.
You know, I probably rabbit on about this nonsense all the time, but on the subject of chasing, I'm 100% certain every gambler *knows* when theyre in chase mode, so why cant they just bugger off out of the house? Its always odds against you'll get back the money. Best thing about gambling? You can do it on 365 days of the year. So theres no need to be betting when the brain is gone slightly awry. That said I still do it, I did it just last night FFS! I'm a terrible example to all gamblers though in fairness.
The World Cup starting tomorrow, it will be awesome..
Youre watching cricket on a Welsh TV channel, with no English, with absolutely no idea whats going on, "Hampshire wedi galw'n gywir ac yn batio.." whatever the fook that means, I can tell you it does not help your betting either. All my effort putting certain words into google only for a €8 loss too, laid Glammy a touch when they went 1.12 after the first over (SP was 1.17), pitch was turning but Hamps dont have the spinners to make it any use to them really, went awe-red soon enough as the price went into the 1.0x's. I think all the Glammy home games are on that channel this season, Sky CH134, cant understand a word of it though.
Been an odd day, had a major urge for Eddie Rockets, came out onto O'Connell Street see a young boy crying and saying hes lost his mum, could he have €2 to get the bus home. I tell him not to worry and feeling sorry for him give him a fiver in coins, then he stops crying, steps back, waves his hand in front of his face and says "yo yo yo you just been punked nigga." And runs off. He was about 7 too the little bar-steward. SEETHING.
Anyway, yesterday was fairly frustrating on the GAA, backed Waterford at 1.5, they went six points behind playing against the wind, went awe-red at 1.7 for €22, then they won playing with the wind second half. Should have known, should have had the bottle to hold, should have had better timing. Poor bet in fairness at the time. The weird thing is too, when I then get an awe-red screen my judgement is effected for the rest of the game, the evens at HT was a great bet in hindsight when they had the wind with them second half, I let that go by in fear of making it worse. Having said that I'd rather air on the side of caution than try blast my way out of trouble I suppose.
Did in running yesterday and today on the horses and thats been the earner, yesterday finished minus €10 but won €80 this afternoon, dont know why but today felt fairly easy, have a great read of the angle at Redcar for some reason, think Carlisle is the opposite, thats a terrible one.
Really horrible news with the disappearance of Doug Fraser, a top class commentator and very accurate in his race reading, his voice wasnt for everyone and he didnt appeal to the "racing for change" crowd who prefer hype merchants like Tommo commentating, he mainly did the lesser meetings and hes been missing since Hexham on Saturday. Every story seems to read terrible and I seriously hope everything turns out OK because he seemed a decent bloke who did his job well. Its things like this that put everything into perspective, hopefully its a happy ending but every story each day just seems to sound worse and the longer stuff like this goes on the worse it is generally, you can only imagine what his family must be going through. Sad times.
Leaving out all the business with St Nic, I've been incredibly lucky this week, maybe someone up there is taking pity on me after the horse.
The boxing - backed Napa, if anyone remembers his last fight, he was trading at 1.01/1.02 at the bell, clearly won, and was completely robbed by the Friday Fight Night judges (nothing new there). Anyway, I priced him up as a winner last time, had €150 on. And because I was going away and couldnt watch, traded out. He was winning by four rounds when he retired on his stool, dont know what price he would have traded at, but I think viewers are sure not to let the price go too low after seeing whats happened before. €1 win instead of a €150 loss. Jammy.
The GAA - backed Kerry against Cork, Kerry at home, Cork havent won there for 15 years and Kerry were the second favourites, great price, €200 on. Again because I was away traded out, and it finished a draw. Kerry were always 3/4 points behind the whole game so it would of been a horrible in play position too if I was watching. 60 cent loss instead of a €200 loss. Jammy. I'm saying nothing on Kildare losing by the way - less said the better!
Didnt have the time to do the cricket really, and the only other bet I had was Fame And Glory, covered a small bit of the St Nic loss, but still a healthy losing week of €240. But sure I was minus €300 at the start of it so I'll take it, it could have been worse.
Nice to see Jan Vermeer improve though, by my estimates he came forward around nine pound from that race at The Curragh, but sticking with my opinion from straight after the race in that he'll be lucky if he ever wins another race given the history, I'll change my mind if (when) he wins. I still think Blanco won the Dante by default and in hindsight the bit breaking obviously had a lot to do with Workforces run, lot of stick after saying APOB should of ran Blanco in the Derby because the second won, I think where Coordinated Cut finished would be more of a fair reflection on the Dante, he only finished less than length behind Workforce too like, the bit breaking was obviously massive in hindsight. Midas Touch is a good horse but hasnt got the turn of foot like some of the others. And At First sight, what a hero! One of my favourites all year waffling on about him, for the life of me didnt see him finishing second though, fair played to him, hes so tough and honest, just a nice likable horse personality wise.
Fame And Glory won again, but you know as good as Sariska is, its still a colt v a filly at the end of the day, think the low Arc quotes might be a bit premature, there'll be harder tests ahead. And Remember When ran a cracker in the Oaks, bit of a trip doubt beforehand and Johnny set sail fairly early, thats just the way the race panned out though nothing wrong with what he did, she'll come froward from being held up a touch more and even maybe come back to 1M2F, she looks fairly decent, probably the best maiden in Europe at this stage.
Workforce was ultra impressive though, I have no idea whether St Nic would have won or even gone close, sure no matter what youre only guessing. No surprise to see the reserves lose lets be honest, cant read too much into that, I reckon they both would have been first and second, in what order who knows. They wont meet in The Curragh anyway, because theres only 22 days between the two Derbys and St Nic has a muscle injury, it would be very, very close to be fit enough but I think APOB is giving him more time. If I have learned anything over the week, its not about backing or laying antepost, its that punters perception is always far, far greater than the reality of a situation. No one believes APOB when he tells the truth, its funny, to me anyway.
Anyway its in the past now, its a bank holiday in Ireland today so theres nothing else to do bar head to Naas. Not lumping on anything, but Purple Glow must have a serious chance of winning the 3-10 on the Samuel Morse form, by far the best form in the book, its Looking Lovelys first run and I thought Eastern Light would be stepped up in trip after the last day not back to 5F, was expecting around 4/6 for Purple Glow but its 2.14 on Betfair at the moment, probably be bigger on course too. Then in the 4-10 Catherineofaragon has the beating of Radharcnafarraige on a form line through Eastern Light at Navan, that was Cathers first run too and Radharcnafarraige made hard work of beating Eastern Light in Naas on her third run. Was expecting them both to be shorter though, think Cather will win, but the only thing thats putting me off is she ran in Dundalk the last day, do Dundalk winners win Group races normally? Not in my opinion, but I suppose being a filly a win is important and it was an easy race in Dundalk, she won cant ask for more, I hate Dundalk though, so cant back her big after that but she'd be nearly a good thing on the Navan form.
Lots of things will be said but, I've been there every Tuesday and Friday since my exams as usual and Aidan O'Brien has been nothing but 100% honest with everyone.
Theres loads of things going on in my head thinking what might of happened, could of happened, I keep coming back to Johnny riding him Tuesday instead of Sam, clocking a seriously fast time, and that then reflects in the horses work the next time, and now hes stiff. Think I just want someone to blame though when there probably isnt.
Anyway, I'll get over it in a few days I suppose. Its my birthday Friday (what a present, head in hands) and myself and Ems had planned London for a few days including the Derby, so I'm just gonna go and forget about the horses, I'll keep doing other sports, I'm trying to get it changed to a different country but I think they still want me there for the Derby market, but I dont want to be.
I'll be back Monday with the weeks screen shot and hopefully cheered up. I actually backed him again yesterday in drips when he drifted because he wasnt stiff then, thats just come to light last night. Friday was maybe the start of it, I said it was a 'couldnt be bothered humor' and I think the Tuesday work before had an impact on Friday, only my opinion though what do I know. So anyway its minus €300 for the blog, lost plenty elsewhere. For not even getting to see him try win it, I dont know what I've learned because what could I do different you know, these things happen I suppose, I'll try not be gutted for long, until I go away I'll going to go see my Grandad, he'll sort me out. And the break will do me good too.
Two years planning, scheming and backing down the swanee eh.
Thanks to everyone for the best wishes and the hard lucks. I appreciate it. I'm also really sorry to all the people I told he was the best horse in the yard and he'd win. He was, and I still think he would have.
I must have really low self esteem because I cant think of anything good or interesting to say about myself, I never even won a medal, got most improved footballer once but that just means ya were shite anyway. The blog was started to do the €100 to €100,000 Challenge, started on the 1st of March 2009 and still going, hopefully complete it some day but sure look I'll never run out of time. Hope you enjoy reading and feel free to comment etc, its all only a bit of craic at the end of the day anyway. Dont take anything I say too serious, even though I am the daddy..