Sunday, December 26, 2010

Boxing Day Blank

Well, I hope everyone had a nice Christmas, all went well here without a hitch. It must be ten years since I had Boxing/Stephens Day without a bet, it'll probably be another ten years before it happens again (or more hopefully!), but I think I'm in the same boat as many others this year. No racing at all made no real difference to me once Leopardstown was called off, but its been a weird day without it, I'm gutted because I normally see people at Leop that I wouldnt see for the rest of the year, old friends from school and college you know, theyre not there for betting but just for the craic like usual, a shame because its not often I get to combine gambling and friends who arent interested in gambling in the same place.

Anyway, The Ashes is getting the majority through I assume, the darts starts tomorrow. Premier League fixtures have probably been made ages ago but in hindsight it would have made sense to play Arsenal v Chelsea today rather than tomorrow, it would have been great, not that I dont think Fulham v West Ham is "Super Sunday," errr..

As for the week, its pretty blank, Saffers v India settled on Monday and I had a few quid on Leopardstown to be called off looking out the window when the snow came. Next week is sure to be more eventful, it'd be hard to be more boring sure! Aus have returned to being shite, even more shite than I expected to be honest, was against Eng for short times but managed to cop on and get out of that quickly, Eng will have to feck things up for a bit of market movement and unless that happens I think this'll be my final book..

Dont really fancy staying up, but when theres nothing on during the day it makes sense to stay up. WTF were Aus doing though, some of the "shots" were ridiculous.

Some good news though, The Rubberbandits Horse Outside got Irish Christmas number 1, BOOM! I cant be bothered to post on the Irish forum on Betfair anymore because its full of trash these days but reading it there it seems theyre giving them a hard time. Everything on the forum is always generally negative anyway, but I think shouting "fuck your Honda Civic I've a horse outside" when drunk is funny. As does the country when its Christmas number 1 I suppose, Irish forum is best ignored - the cricket, boxing and darts are quite good though. Well done to them anyway sure its a laugh and what the country needs because every time you stick on the news or read a paper you'd want to kill yourself with the doom and gloom.

Monday, December 20, 2010

National Hunt Season Finnish

LAST year's Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle winner Go Native will not contest the Stan James Champion Hurdle in March, having been ruled out of action for the entire season by trainer Noel Meade.

The seven-year-old, who was as short as 14-1 with Coral for the Champion Hurdle - for which the sponsor quotes 25-1 - was injured when making a mistake at the second hurdle in last season's renewal and has not run since.

Meade had not intended to train him for the first half of the season, with a return in January at Leopardstown for the BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle suggested, and reported his vets "100 per cent happy with him" in October.

Meade told the Racing Post: "He came back into work, but we weren't happy with him and decided not to continue. He will hopefully be back next year when the plan will be the Champion Hurdle again."

Thats it, finnish, might as well pack up if the best horse in the world wont run. Forget it, season over. What time is the Guineas at..?

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Snow Ruins Everything..

Not only is there nothing to bet on, theres been so much called off theres not even anything to watch, never mind gamble. Premiership games called off is a shocker in this day and age, all this safety stuff, but the rugby league games went ahead not a bother, and Ipswich played on a full pitch of snow without underground heating.

Not much craic this week, Eng collapsing twice cost me money, not too bad at -€134, I can forgive one collapse but not two in the same game - thats Pakistan stuff FFS. Even India today, scored 130ish first go and get 450 second, will still lose but even so its putting up a fight isnt it, under 200 twice is just gash, good bowling, but Eng batting is stronger than that, obviously. But one of those things really, no point dwelling on it because its so random.

I wanted to do the darts last night but then watched the first game and wanted to kill myself. Anyone that saw it will understand. Worst. Game. Ever. Smith had a higher average at just 80, missed 26 darts at doubles, Hamilton won 3-0, it was terrible viewing.

-€106 on the week but got +€36 from Saffers v India (missed the first day and wasnt here to see the draw go 1.4s, head in hands man) which should settle tomorrow so it wasnt that bad a week, and always going to lose given Eng batting, I still reckon supporting Eng more so than Aus will end up being profitable over the whole series so no complaints.

Hopefully the snow buggers off soon. Glad we got the Fairyhouse card in on Wednesday, was a cracking days racing probably the best we'll have here all year, lost Navan today and Punchestown tomorrow, and starting to get a little nervous over Leopardstown at Christmas - that'll be the ultimate disaster, I cant even remember a Christmas without Leop! Was my first meeting to be ever brought to too, backed no winners all day, think I was fivers only back then, but had a chase bet of 20 pounds old money on a 9/1 outsider of four in the bumper and he lead all the way. My Grandad counted it out in the old red 20 notes, and I felt RICH that day, asked him to bring me with him every weekend from there on in. If that horse lost I probably would have grown up hating gambling, funny old world.. I saw Istabraq win that day too.

Monday, December 13, 2010


Well, I came home Thursday night drunk and dropped the laptop, FINNISH, only just got it back this afternoon. Life would be easy you know if I wasnt such a gobshite, but alas.

The X Factor market settled anyway, but had the €50 green on One Direction, didnt see them finishing third behind Rebecca. I'm not a fan of Matt but he was the best in fairness, Wagner is still the winner in my eyes.

Got €44 off the India game Tuesday before I started watching The Budget and thats been it bar The Ashes. You'd be lost without a computer, jesus its unreal, I was here Saturday thinking I'll buy a netbook, how much and where? Internet. I'll go down to the local PP to have a bet, study form? Internet. Whats on? Internet. Best odds? Internet. So I went out instead to embrace life with friends, you know the people you wouldnt normally talk to if you had internet. Yeah talking to people gives me a warm fuzzy feeling in my heart, but I prefer Betfair.

Anyway its been a good week +€1,200, last two weeks were a bit quiet but just a case of sitting in the pocket waiting, IMO its virtually impossible to win a set amount each week so I'm happy being level for a few weeks and then having a burst, that pattern seems to be here for the last few months, I nearly say at the end of every week "and hopefully next week will be back to normal.." but then something happens, again, again, and again.. I hope one day to indeed have a normal week. But things are fairly settled in the main so I have lot of patience lately, loud children in public still annoy me but thats about it atm, betting is entirely in the mind so sitting down at the computer happy and relaxed is always good and goes a long way, just for thinking clearly because sure everyone sees the same match so its just how you process it. Being annoyed thinking "I fooking hate him.." gets in the way of thinking just pure odds. However I think I was lucky this week though, this was the ground around two hours after Eng won..

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

What Happens Now?

Online betting tax confirmed. Exchanges confirmed. Dust settling.

Leaving aside the bookmakers, because to be honest I (personally) dont care, most of my betting is through Betfair. And in all likelihood logic says the bookmakers will absorb it, although it remains to be seen.

What about Betfair though. Tax turnover? Tax winnings? Tax every bet? Tax every lay (as in people acting like bookmakers), hows that fair towards backers though? When you go on holiday and bet, are you still subject to tax because youre not in Ireland at the time the bet is stuck? Increase commission? What happens when youre obviously betting with people who arent from Ireland, that bet will fall under the tax marked bets, but only for one person and not for the other?

On the face of it, it seems totally unworkable. But here we are with it in the Budget anyway.

My biggest issue, and plenty will disagree but thats fine, is not the actual tax itself, its the tax going to the HRI when you bet on soccer, GAA, boxing, cricket, snooker, the list goes on. Incredibly annoying. It will help Irish racing I'm told, but what about the people who bet on soccer and dont give a flying fook about racing, and are being taxed. I like racing, but hows that fair?! This is coming from the 25th of July when RTE news said "all online betting will be taxed in Ireland to fund horse racing."

As I said, I like racing, but when I bet on say GAA and am taxed, I think its only fair the tax should go to the GAA, why should horse racing be entitled to revenue generated from something that has nothing to do with them. Simple really.

But we have to wait and see what Betfair say/do. Tax turnover/every bet stuck I know I have to move, tax winnings will be fairly alright if only annoying. The annoying thing being sit on a plane for 30mins, land in England, and not get taxed.

Anyway the show goes on until we know. Picture every bet or turnover, being €100 green and paying €200 in tax, dont think that will happen though. Obviously the natural reaction is to want to leave purely because youre subject to something that is fixable by moving. Thats more something to say rather than something to do isnt it. IMO I think it'll be commission on winnings going up, but we shall see.

Either way the situation with tax on Betfair is just a farce really and leaves everything up in the air. Hopefully we dont end up like France..

(All IMO of course, as is everything written here anyway).

Online Betting Tax

Anyone that doesnt want to skip through all the pages..

Annex I

Applying Betting Duty to Offshore Betting

Betting Duty has to date only applied to bets placed in betting shops with bets placed by Irish punters either online or over the phone, essentially with offshore entities, falling outside the tax. The Minister signalled some time ago that this situation needed to be addressed. In addition, work underway by the Department of Justice has been progressing on a proper licensing regime which will serve to protect vulnerable people.

The Government intends to include provisions in the Finance Bill and revise the Betting Act 1931 to ensure that all bookmakers taking bets from Ireland will pay 1% betting duty on those bets in the same way that betting shops currently do. Betting Exchanges will also be subject to tax under the new arrangements but the calculation of the tax will differ from that applying to bookmakers.

The Minister is hopeful that by including the high-growth area of the betting sector, particularly given the increasing prevalence of smart phones, the tax base from betting will be boosted significantly. In a full year it is expected that the tax yield could grow up to €20 million depending on the prevailing market conditions.

Just as important is the positive signal this measure will convey to international betting operations that have expressed an interest in or have already invested in Ireland. A location with an appropriate licensing framework coupled with relatively low taxes provides real investment and employment opportunities in this sector. The details will be contained in the Finance Bill and the proposed amendments to the Betting Act.

How Betfair will manage it, I dunno. It says 1% there, but I believe he said 2% in the speech. Which would be 7% commission, I think, but I dunno how they'll work it.

EDIT: Its confirmed 1% now, I believe.


Well, that went quite well I thought.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Ashes 2nd Test

10-30PM, is it good night or is it good morning..?

The plus side of being snowed in, is you can sleep whenever and watch cricket all night, and no one annoys you and asks you to leave the house or do anything, its fantastic. The body and diet has gone to pot though, I was stood in the kitchen last night at four making myself grilled cheese on toast, with ice cream and maltesers - I'm 11 stone I'll be 13 by the time Strauss lifts The Urn, I havent bothered shaving either, but betting in the middle of the night is bringing me a weird sense of happiness. Maybe I'm going crazy, but I am genuinely happy watching it all night, you know that warm fuzzy feeling of happiness, yeah weird.

Anyway, I hedged on Eng runs last night (yesterday morning session) and laid the draw, I've lost around 30 ticks with the rain evening session, but I still think Eng will win and have got +€1,200 Eng and -€75 draw. Obviously you cant really call the weather to a tee, but we start half an hour early today and tomorrow, so theres 196 overs left without rain, say for arguments sake they lose 50, that leaves 146, Eng bat today for 16 just say, that leaves 130 overs to bowl Aus out. Even say another 10 overs lost thats still 120 overs to bowl them out. HOPEFULLY Eng have an above healthy run rate for the 16 overs they bat this morning (and theres no reason at all not to), and then they'll have around 375+ at least, maybe 400+ (Aus bowlers are gash).

Of course things change if Strauss bats *too* long (how long is *too* long?). I dunno, have to address those things as they happen. IMO 375 is a nice score to have, but I dont have big red the draw so probably more relaxed than a draw layer would be how long he bats. Declaring right away would be wrong IMO, and not because I'd lose €600 (HA!), but Aus arent gonna get bowled for 300, or at least theyre odds against to be bowled for 300, so say Eng have to chase 50-75 then, you might as well go get them this morning with no pressure quickly, talking about declaring straight off is T20-vision stuff IMO. Important to remember too Aus effectively have four 11s, thats being harsh on Harris, say three 11s, but say those four last 10 overs (only lasted 44 balls between them 1st innings), so you have another 120 overs, one wicket every 20, and then four in 10 for 130 - thats including overs lost for rain too. Probably WILL get rain but IMO the draw NEEDS rain.

Everything was going exactly to plan yesterday before the rain FFS, I was waffling away on Twitter "Plan for tonight, got to be bat all day, have the usual couple of overs at them before close, hopefully add another 300, 370ish lead and then Aus will have to bat for the guts of 2 days without a real chance of winning, even Eng chasing 50-75 in the last session will be fine." Probably now dont want to bat again, but there was turn and bounce yesterday so Swann should be a serious danger and sure if Aus bat out the draw good luck to them, cant complain. Am happy enough to leave it as is, especially at the odds. Even leaving aside money I'd be bitterly disappointed if Eng couldnt win from here, really have to be winning from these positions, the weather is an act of god but hopefully they have enough time even so.

Anyway the week, been buggered with the snow like everyone else..

I would have went out and built a snowman, but the back door was frozen shut! Some fellow on the news said we can get used to winters like these because of some wind coming from Russia now or whatever, not a fan of the cold. I was sort of unlucky in the Barca-Madrid game on Monday, laid red card at odds on, red card came in the 92nd minute, it was the last feckin' thing to happen before the ref blew up, bah. In hindsight happy to get rid of red though. Only other market was the India-NZ ODI, struggled for a loss of €14 without anything out of the ordinary happening. Then switched hours for the test but havent really missed anything with everything called off, hopefully Eng win or staying up will be for nothing but to be honest I dont mind and I'd rather lose the €75 than back the draw at these odds so far out with a team so far ahead, just bugger off rain.

Also, welcome back Tiger Woods while I was writing this, what a fooking shot on 18, epic. Then GMacs putt was special to make it a playoff, still going on but hope Tiger wins.. cracking finish whatever happens though.