Gambler Falls

12/02/2012

2012-02-12T18:06:00.005Z

Well, I enjoyed the ten days or so off from Betfair, only thing is I am now dying sick..! Hopefully I'll feel better for the ODIs next week and get back into a routine again, reckon it was just something I ate so I'll keep this short - although I only had two markets for the full two weeks anyway.

Big kick in the balls to see the BPL (Bangladesh premier league) is 15 minutes behind live on English TV (Sky CH834), there are links around but trading off links is very hit and miss for me - I did try it on Friday and ended up -€40 so I think I may just pretend its not happening at all if the TV pics arent fixed. Its a shame but what can you do.

And I have a P&L from the Pak v Eng third test, although I was down the country for three out of the four days, its mostly from just messing around really, I got to watch it for the odd hour here and there. Obviously Eng were poor enough to lose from having Pak all out for 99 first go, but I think the ODIs might bring them closer together, its hard to know until first look tomorrow I wont be trusting Eng too quickly, but I dont think it'll be a complete stroll for Pak like some are suggesting.. cue 4-0 and four 1.01 trains..!

Looking forward to watching Tiger tonight, hopefully he does the business although no financial interest, I cant move from the couch anyway so what better to do than watch Tiger..

Hopefully things are back to normal next week, whether I be right or wrong on them, at least I'll have a few markets to think about.

Amazing

2012-01-29T16:28:00.004Z

There are times in life where you are stuck by the awe of a situation, and you just have sit back and think to yourself "thats fucking amazing," Hurricane Fly today was superb, Djokovic v Nadal was epic sport, but this, this is fucking amazing - Peter Casey live on Irelands national TV station RTE giving his reaction after winning his first Grade 1:

What. A. Legend. "You cant say that on television!" Hahaha!

Anyway, its been a great week on the test and it was good that it finished a day early yesterday so I could go see Hurricane Fly today, that and watch Tiger make a bit of a balls of it this morning but sure he cant win everything. Bit of a weird feeling with England collapsing chasing 144, really wasnt expecting it, but I was against the draw mainly and level both teams so I wasnt supporting anyone really, just was expecting it to be closer thats all.

Life is always far handier when the draw goes odds on so early, 10 minutes into play on day 1 this time, I'm skeptical about laying it in subcontinent conditions but England were bowling first so went with it. Only small thing I missed out on (well maybe), a lot of people on my Twitter timeline were laying Eng at 1.2 when they came out to chase, that was a top shout and I thought about doing it because Strauss was in such bad form, as it turned out he was still there when three or four others had already gone!

I ventured over to tennis this week too, only small stakes, mainly listening to other people, but when it goes five sets the market always swings a fair bit anyway doesnt it, the final this morning (although I missed half of it) was amazing, cant describe it.

I wont be around next Sunday so I'm doing a two weeker the following week.. I'll miss the first three days of the 3rd test too so hopefully it goes five days, shame about it not going 1-1 for a decider really but sure it doesnt matter who wins youre only trading it.

I could open a can of worms on Liverpool v United but I wont (well, not open fully), booing Evra was pretty harsh I thought "Booooo, youre a victim of racial abuse, boooo" I remember thinking with ten minutes to go hopefully someone scores so we dont have to go through a replay, Suarez would have been available for a replay too so you can only imagine what we'd have to go through with the media and all that. Thankfully its over anyway, I was wondering afterwards where all the hatred in football comes from? EVERYONE hates EVERYONE, its a load of nonsense really when you think about it, especially when you look at photos like this from yesterday, I dunno what age he is but he looks old enough that he "should have" some sense. I also realise its only one out of 50 odd thousand and theres no way to stop it, but hating another player so much to do something like that without evening knowing him, I dont see the point, I dont see what it achieves, its only a game..

22/01/2012

2012-01-22T19:23:00.005Z

Well, I'd be lying if I said this week wasnt a disappointment, I managed to get to €500 green on the England test, and end up getting -€21 in the end. Obviously given Englands rise to the top over the past year, you dont expect them to get under 200 both knocks, it was the second time around that did the damage, but sure c'est la vie.

I thought it was shaping up to be a really nice test early on and the market was just ticking away to get against Pak when Eng lost a crucial wicket..

It was never going to be a really massive test after that, but I was still happy enough with this..

Before ruining it by laying Pak when England came in to bat second time around - I'm not particularly bothered by it too much because I had planned to do it for a while during the game, Pak be 100-150 ahead, England get 400-450 and Pak chasing 250-300 would never be easy, added you'd probably get extra downward pressure on the draw price.. so I dont mind it too much, I was just wrong and sure theres nothing you can do about it just take it on the chin, the only thing is its disappointing to get up at that hour every morning for no return you know.

There is an argument I over-staked on the lay, it was mainly after Strauss had went (because he hasnt been scoring massive runs while England have been doing well anyway) but a little before that too, however, I've always done that - if I was €1.6k green the next number put in would probably be €2k - because youve got so much leverage and being ahead of the market, at one stage I could have had my book at -€2 Pak & Draw and €2,000 on England, getting 1000/1 when England are 5ish/6ish, even if that goes wrong theres still plenty of options. Obviously its annoying when it goes wrong but when it goes right I end up with €2k and €3k equal green books, just accept being wrong this time and sure life goes on.

I've watched all the Saffer games, done one of them and it ended well to at least make it a winning week and keep moving forward, didnt do todays game because Super Sunday was excellent viewing!

Kitty Dillon scoped wrong on Wednesday so never ended up running in Thurles on Thursday, I had planned to go on the Tuesday anyway and decided to skip a day on the test, so when I found that out I decided ah sure I'll just get up and do the test now, that was the day I turned +€500 into -€21.. that could have worked out slightly better..!

15/01/2012

2012-01-15T18:34:00.006Z

What a week for comebacks, Paul Scholes and Thierry Henry both scoring, but while everyone was fawning over Henry (although you couldnt have wrote a better script), they missed the most important thing to happen..

HA!

Anyway, quiet week on the trading front because we only had two international matches on during UK time, theres plenty on Aussie time but I dont regret ignoring most of it this year, India seem to be making a show of themselves in Aus anyway and the market was pretty much dead after day 1. So I'm stuck with Saffers v Sri Lanka, I dont really like SL for some reason, I remember last year I was €800 green on one of the England tests against them and still only manged €25 profit in the end, theyre very hard to form a solid opinion on.

The 1st ODI was more or less a waste of time with them on 13/6, FFS!

Before that, or during that, I was happy enough with my position, it was lucky to have the €75 leverage after the 2nd wicket went in the end to finish with zero, but sure I cant help teams being absolutely crap on a particular day you know, shit happens.

The 2nd ODI was a bit more like an Indian conditions match with the market sticking between the 1.05 and 1.3 range, and topping up after a wicket worked OK if you could trust the batsman coming in. I'm looking forward to Pakistan v England in Dubai on Tuesday for some proper action, just a shame its a 5-30AM start, I dont necessarily mind getting up, its just the psychological aspect of it that bothers me. Its difficult to get up at 5-30AM and not have a position because you (or I do anyway) tend to think 'I didnt get up at this hour to do fuck all' instead of waiting and picking a moment like you would normally during the day. Just have to get over that 'I'm up, I have to do something, I got up for this reason' idea and try not to just click for the sake of it - or to stay awake! Fingers crossed the market will be lively, no 1.01 trains and the pitch isnt a highway and were getting up to look at 600 v 600. From memory England v Pakistan a summer ago was pretty decent, so hopefully it'll be good to watch.

A personal thing that might get in the way is my horse Kitty Dillon is entered (and got in) to Thurles on Thursday, I'll miss a day if I go, its so hard to decide because its over 2M and that doesnt suit, I wont be backing her until she gets at least 2M4F but it'd be terrible to miss it if she actually did pull it out and win. That Mullins horse that won the first at Navan today comes out so thats a help, she wont be held up as much as last time we learned that, I'd still be happier with a longer trip but sure we'll learn something about her I suppose. An England and Kitty Dillon double next week will do sure, I dont ask for much..!

08/01/2012

2012-01-08T12:36:00.005Z

First week of January over and done, and no damage, success! The Saffer v Lanka test was a bit of a struggle really, but I missed day 2 and that turned out to be the most important day with the declaration, it hasnt been a good series, sometimes teams dont gel for trading for me, for whatever reason - I remember last year whatever I finished green on Aus v Eng I gave back a day later on Saffers v India. Happy enough to get €86 and not lose and get the series over and done with to be honest.

The darts has moved to the BDO now which is on BBC, anything on terrestrial TV is alright for speed, I reckon you'll still get sniped on the red button though - I think. Standard isnt as good as the PDC but its not terribly awful, its something that might keep things ticking over anyway because theres only two games of cricket next week.

For the most part as I said in the 2011 review, most of January and February I'll be trying to keep my head down, out of trouble and keeps things relatively simply - with lower stakes etc, hopefully it'll be an improvement on the last two years. It'd be nice to get off the a good start of the year on the blog, for once!

2011 Review

2012-01-06T19:06:00.005Z

Well, where to start..! I was doing the #2011Highs on Twitter the other day and completely forgot some massive moments which were great at the time, my brain has officially turned into a 'traders' one and I now forget what has happened ten minutes ago! But its been a good year in terms of life in general and the P&L, its hard to know what to put in down to really because there have been a good few changes which only really took effect fully this year, after last year being such a struggle going through the ordeal of losing horse racing off the portfolio which went from being number one to nothing at all.

At the start of January the blog was sat on €30,261.72 and now sits on €58,259.99, which is an increase of €27,998.27, so €28k give or take - which is well over my "target" of €7.5k each year.

I dislike using the word target, because its not really a "target" you could use goal or aim or whatever, its just the figure that if I were not to make it, or even come close to it say under €7k, I would consider stopping, so I dont really know what word to use to describe it because I dislike targets in general because it leads to the idea that you HAVE to do something every day, which isnt my style I like to pick and choose moments, but anyway. The house bills more or less come to €6k-ish or thereabouts (average 3 bedroom semi) so its linked in to that figure a bit.

So anyway the changes, as I said it was the first full year without horse racing, which was different to say the least, you get so used to the daily routine. But giving up has improved my life tonnes with loads more free time and obviously not having to deal with the on course boys being miles ahead every day which is the reason for stopping in the first place, I'd only be sitting here struggling and frustrated at some point each afternoon, which naturally impacts on other sports too, and that was probably the best decision I've ever made on Betfair.

It was also the first full calendar year that I wasnt in college, so that helps being around whenever the games are on etc and not having to miss either lectures or a day of a Test match or anything else that might be on. I remember sitting there in 2010, I might not remember sporting events now but I remember this conversation as if it happened yesterday, I was sitting beside one of my close friends Tomas in Business Finance after getting up at 5AM to trade India v Australia and then headed in to the lecture at 1ish, it was horrible and I knew I really didnt want to be there, I remember we were talking about it and not listening, I wanted to focus on my trading and he wanted to travel Australia, and here we are a year later and I've done everything I've wanted and he has flights booked.

If things were to ever go tits up I do have degrees/certs to fall back on obviously being there four odd years, and theres also courses I want to do too in the future, but it was just at the time and not what I wanted to be doing with my life. Realistically in Ireland at 23 it'd be tough for me to find a job to be on €28k a year, without the added travel expenses and everything, there is the argument that it does leave a hole in the CV if you like but I dont see a problem doing what I do, if some people want to take a view its up them and none of my business, if someone sits there in a job interview and says 'you didnt really do that' its probably more the fact that they cant do it and havent got the first clue about trading, you know if people want to have that perception thats fine, you cant change the way people think, but I'm happy with what I do and if someone has a problem to put it bluntly its not my issue.

I was down in the IFSC at the start of 2010, I'm not sure if the exchange shop is still open or not, but it was only down there I started using Gruss, reason being I have a Mac and had to get all the relevant stuff to run it so I never had the option to experience the trial. 2011 has been the first full calendar year with Gruss, although I had it for most of 2010, I have to say its been more use on sports betting rather than horse racing because of the delay, I did go on one of those course thingys to learn fully what it can do, even if I dont use half the things, at least knowing of them and more education can only help really. Its hard to gauge how helpful Gruss was or whether it was just me improving the cricket trading because I'm a year more wiser on it and so on, but being as quick as you can with positions naturally helps - especially for redding out, and since I've started using Gruss I genuinely think I'm ten times better at not losing and getting rid of poor positions quicker/better.

Bit of a daft change, but its the first year I've had a desk, sort of an office space if you like, and a event planner. Might think that 'ah sure its viewing at TV it doesnt matter' but I've found that it helps a lot, just makes the mind a bit sharper and a bit more reactive to situations sitting at a proper desk, as opposed to slumping on the couch or something. Having my own space helps too because it just makes life more handy and not having to move anything each evening is nice, especially when you have two computers which I now have too. I cant speak highly enough for having an event planner or a calendar - it might sound daft but penciling in events/games and having a schedule is pretty awesome IMO, I'm never at Betfair for no reason, I touched on this a fair bit in a post on discipline a few weeks ago, I think its helpful to always have a reason to sit down at the desk more so than just sitting down to kill time and see what happens, because more than likely you'll open a position on whatever is on at the time of sitting down, and obviously the number of people who can do all sports is fairly small I imagine, so its good to specialise and be organised.

Going forward, I dont think I'll reach €28k next year, I think that England v India series was ridiculously easy (in Betfair terms) and that bloats figures, winning €2k+ on an ODI wont happen a lot..! Test matches will remain the flagship and I dont see that changing, I dont see much changing really unless Betfair changes, but even last year when I had to swap horse racing for cricket I still managed to make €10.7k which was ahead of the "target" and I dont see any reason for changing the "target" each year.

I suppose theres an argument of liquidity dropping a small bit on my two side sports, boxing and GAA, Prizefighter which brought in four figures a year has gone by the wayside with them changing the layout to have the draw live before the fights, a nightmare for getting money into markets. And I suppose the early GAA markets could suffer because of economic issues in Ireland, its hard to know with that one really as its only a summer sport - its still really the only market where I could find myself hung, drawn and quartered in a position with no way of getting out because of liquidity, but thats something that I know before it starts, so at least I can go into it with that in mind and its never too bad when youre expecting it.

Other than that I'll just get on with it and sure it is what it is, good things and bad things will always happen. In the more immediate future I'll be trying to get through to March without any harm as thats been the most awkward time of the year for a while now, I dont know why, I spend a lot of time thinking about it during the time, I have no records of early 2009 because my Grandad was in hospital at that time so I wasnt involved in anything (he survived thank god!), then started the blog in March after starting back with €100 to get back into things really, I didnt really plan on still being here three years on but here we are.. I always kept a daily diary of things I did that worked, didnt work, things I wanted to work on, change, whatever, so blogging comes naturally rather than a chore you know. But anyway, I can waffle for Ireland too completely went off the point there, in 2010 I went into late January with €20k-ish or so (I lost exact records after dropping the laptop) and fell back to €19.3k-ish before March got things going up again, 2011 I started on €30.25k and the last week in February was sat on €30,156.31 so two months of faffing about really, I remember saying at the time 'ah fuck this I'm going on a two month holiday next year' but things are a bit different now so I'll give it a go and sure if I'm still here going into March with less or around the same figure I might see about just holidaying next year, thats probably something I'll always say that never happens.

Other than that, perfect time to say thanks to anyone who reads and comments, I appreciate it, as I said I always kept a diary anyway so the only difference is its online and sure people can read it if they want and ignore it if they want its up to them and each to their own. Its three years now and I havent any adverts or started selling something so at least thats something! I actually wanted to say this but didnt know where to put it without sounding twat-ish but I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in adverts or selling tips or anything like that at all, its just a personal trading blog for craic and thats the way its going to stay. Hopefully something (even one thing!) I've said as helped someone along the way and sure at least I've havent punched you in the face so it could far worse..

Happy New Year

2012-01-01T18:50:00.004Z

Well, hope everyone had a good Christmas and New Years. I managed to beat my chest infection and make it to Leopardstown so it was all good here, ventured down to Limerick on the 27th to see the new horse Kitty Dillon make her racecourse debut in the bumper, she finished 7th, but it wasnt so bad - her p2p and schooling races were over 3M and her breeding suggests she wants 2M6F+ too, wasnt really expecting a win you know yourself most bumpers are only 2M and sure we learned a bit about her anyway in that she wont be held up so much next time, she seemed to settle grand which was the reason for that anyway.

Being out in the real world on the 28th I missed all the amazing scenes taking place online, I was stood in the stands watching Voler La Vedette hose up unbeknown to the fact Betfair Towers were in complete meltdown! Obviously not being online at the time I have a more light hearted view of the situation, from what I have been told €25 million popped up at 29 (28/1) about 15 to 20 seconds into the race and stayed there until they reached the line, obviously everyone backed it at some stage, theres a video on YouTube of it..

You see there your man had €100,000+ green on her passing the post, so I assume a lot of people had big payouts. However, (again to say not being online at the time I have a more light hearted view so dont kill me) realistically every reasonable thinking and experienced person on Betfair would know it was a mistake and that there arent people sitting there with €600M+ sitting in an account, so even backing it (I would have lumped too) surely the thought process was theres a fair chance of a void market, and theres been an awful lot of fuss over, what in added hindsight, seems an obvious conclusion. Going back to the idea no one has €600M+ in their account, Voler absolutely hosed up by 4L+ and took the lead cruising before jumping the last, there was untold millions of "free money" available yet it wasnt all taken, simply because people dont have those sort of funds. And if everyone together hasnt got the funds to back it, no one person has the funds to lay it.

Anyway, being at the races I've been unable to take the two test matches on this week seriously, and both ended up being a small loss, trying to do something part-time always ends up arse ways, especially when its a test match and requires 6+ hours a day, but never mind thats something I already know..! I've been watching the darts too which have been great, unfortunately its the same craic as the Premier League and someone is miles ahead of the clock, which makes trading virtually impossible, but sure its good viewing anyway without a position, I presume I'll have to knock darts off the 2012 schedule completely but I'm going to do a 2011 review some time next week so I'll see then. ATM its looking like just cricket, GAA, boxing and a bit of 'specials' betting for 2012.

Hopefully anyway things will return to a bit normality next week and I'll be online more, but even then I'll miss the 2nd day of the Saffer test due to my Grandads birthday. It hasnt been a great series trading wise anyway so not much harm done and most of the next while will be waiting around for England v Pakistan I think!

22/12/2011

2011-12-22T12:33:00.005Z

Apologies for the lack of update this week but I've been stuck down in the prime of life with a chest infection, its negative craic, but I did plan for the week off anyway so I suppose its no real harm in that sense, and the main aim is to be at Leopardstown on the 26th without dying, fingers crossed..!

Anyway, not much to say because not much has happened, the Aus v NZ market settled on Monday night but that work was done last week really - Aus hit 1.02 Monday night before losing, and NZ went from 1.01 back to 3+ apparently before winning, long live test cricket for trading. I was in bed when all this happened but I'm sure it was good for anyone that stayed up.

Bit ironic I say I'll skip the overnight tests for "better life" reasons and then go and get sick, but even so I didnt miss much with Saffers v SL either - Saffers were 1.4ish after the toss, 1.15 by the end of day 1 and 1.1 by the end of day 2, it was never going to be a big test from those positions/odds you know.

Really appreciate having the darts on each evening to pass a bit of time, the Anderson match was brilliant, Barney going out was good viewing too, and Whitlock doing the business with a broken ankle last night, I havent been trading obviously, I havent even looked at the markets to see if someone is still well ahead of the clock like the Premier League, which makes quick trading virtually impossible (for me anyway). It seems more of a position takers market - I think its easier to be a position taker over the sets layout more so than the Premier League so I'll have a look at it after Christmas and see.

Anyway wont be around again this Sunday because its Christmas, so have a Happy Christmas everyone and back a few winners on Boxing/Stephens day.

11/12/2011

2011-12-11T18:01:00.013Z

Well, its been an alright week at +€400, I say alright because at one stage it was +€900, but I wouldnt have changed either position over the weekend.

Eh, suppose I'll start with Khan.. where do you start with him. The interview after, why does he make it so hard to like him? I want to be a fan because he has tonnes of talent (IMO) and is exciting to watch, but you cant really say it was me v him + the ref straight after a fight. I think his SP was around about 1.11ish, but I had average odds of just under evens, I've no complaints with the scoring or the ref, for starters without the two docked points he would have won by unanimous decision and secondly the ref warned him about docking a point so obviously he has to avoid doing it again in a close fight, dont get docked the point in the last round (how annoying, last round FFS!) and he wins. Oodles of talent, no brain.

Then today, I was happy enough to be on Windies..

It did go to 1.8s afterwards, but I didnt think that was fair at the time, sadly there was a run out an over or two after that and then it was a case of typical Windies, reliably unreliable. I always find myself in trouble though when a team are covering the rate needed easily but losing wickets, frustrating, but I wouldnt take it back. And it'll happen again no doubt.

Naturally life is much easier when you have a more solid team chasing and Monday was far easier than today - still a bit dodgy and on the wrong team - but because there was so many bounces from 1.6 Windies to odds against, was able to create a fair bit of green on India, was only afterwards looking back I thought I could have been €700ish equal but I did think India would win, so no real complaints about that. Its just one of those things, because I was against India today I was getting around 10 ticks less for good things and 10 ticks more against me for bad things - Monday was the opposite so it was far easier in that sense you know, 1.6 would bounce to 1.9 for 5 runs after a wicket.

Anyway, so good to see Tiger back to winning ways last Sunday night! Delighted for him, and it was pretty exciting watching it, he was odds on when I posted last week and then eventually went back out to 4+ so it wasnt without a scare. I ended up backing him, probably more in silliness rather than shrewdness, he'll probably be too short for all the majors next year now wont he? Still, nice to see him back, his position in the market seems to be the only thing I have a proper understanding of in golf.

In the rush to watch him last week I forgot to mention, I've decided not to do the overnight tests this year - I'm glad I forgot to mention it because I actually have a book on this weeks, say one thing do another! It started at 11-30 which isnt so bad for an hour or two, doing the whole night though is really a 'life ruiner' its too hard on the system. From memory I didnt do all of The Ashes tests last year either, so I dont plan on doing the India series over there - although I would imagine they'll be good for trading, unless it snows and I'm stuck in all day I'd prefer to keep my hours (and life) as normal as possible. Its impossible to be normal doing this, but close enough will do..! I'll start putting up the Aussie wallet shots from now on too I suppose, I'd say the second test should finish up tonight anyway.

In terms of cricket going forward, as far as I can see we only have the Saffers v Lanka first test on Thursday and then thats it until Christmas, and then after Christmas it gets a bit hectic but I think I'll skip a fair bit of it, much rather head to Leopardstown for the four days thats in it, its only once a year and it wouldnt be Christmas without it really. Never mind the 25th, roll on the 26th and we can all have a bet!

Final of the X Factor tonight, so that has to settle but some markets have already (Amelia Lily to go last night), I have zero on them all so no point waiting - made a mistake this year (in hindsight) laying off Johnny far too early, he was 70-75 after the first show and after a few weeks traded as low as 16, I traded out far too soon. I should know by now, ignore the majority and stick with the idea that the 'fun' act does well, it was only the double elimination that caught him out, and that was randomly threw in somewhere in the middle this year by surprise, Wagner got caught by the double last year too. The funny thing is everyone sits at home and thinks 'smoke and mirrors' doesnt work on me, but the smoke and mirrors really does work.. IMO its been completely set up for the girl band to win tonight, I'd like to see the bloke win it, but sure theres no money on it so who cares.

And lastly, I noticed (theres no escaping it FFS!) that the Euro is having another "crisis" this week. I'm not sure what crisis this is by now, whether its the first one or a new one or number 691, whichever crisis it is anyway, William Hill are going 3/1 for the Euro to be gone by the end of 2012, so, if youre one of those "the world is doomed" "the Euro will be gone in five days.. three days.. no wait six days.. any moment now.. anyyyy moment now" people, get yourself down to William Hill and take 3/1 and let the rest of us live in piece and quiet, if only for a day, I hear were having Euro crisis number 692 next week, how exciting, its never happened before. Also, Greece are 11/8 to stop using the Euro by end of 2012 too if thats of interest.

I also have no comment to make on Manchester United exiting the Champions League, no comment at all, haha. Except to say if you, like me, love watching European football, the listings for watching your team in Europe in the new year are as follows:

Arsenal & Chelsea - ITV & Sky Sports.
Man City & Man Utd - Channel 5 & ITV 4.
Liverpool - ESPN Classic.

Budget 2012

2011-12-06T18:09:00.003Z

Just to copy and paste the wording on the new online betting laws/rules in the Budget..

Betting Duty
The Betting (Amendment) Bill is now at an advanced stage of drafting with a final draft expected from the Attorney General’s Office early in the New Year. The Bill will, inter alia, facilitate the extension of the betting duty of 1% to remote betting and the introduction of a betting intermediaries’ duty (Gross Profits Tax of 15%) to cover betting exchanges. Following publication of the Bill there is a legal requirement to notify the EU Commission 3 months in advance of enactment of the Bill. It is intended that the new taxation regime will commence from the second quarter of 2012.

First reaction is I'm guessing when they say 15% gross profits, it means 15% of Betfairs profits and not 15% of our profits. I believe when there was a bit of furor over this a while back Betfair said they'd be happy enough to pay it (although I cant find a link now so dont trust me on that), because they have made a 'voluntary donation' (or something along those lines) to the HRI in the past.

Interesting if they say anything about it over the next few days anyway. It doesnt seem like theres anything to be overly worried about.

I'm actually interested to see how much the figure will be, I still meet people interested in betting in Ireland who have never used Betfair, or even know what its about (with regards laying etc etc). We'll see anyway.

04/12/2011

2011-12-04T18:45:00.006Z

Following on from my post on discipline last week, this is another angle on doing things..

Whos the Daddy! I'm a huge Boardwalk Empire fan myself, great show. For anyone that watches, Chalky White is also the man.

Anyway, fairly quiet time on Betfair week only the two games/markets/days. I did actually get up to do both Bangs v Pak games but sure Bangs collapse so easy I shouldnt bother really, the market was dead quickly in the 1.0x's.

I thought the same was happening on the second India game this week but they drifted from 1.09 first innings to 1.6 at the break, I managed to start at 1.9 which was a nice starting point after an early wicket, it did bounce from 1.5 to 1.9s again afterwards but that wasnt too much of a worry because it was just back to where I started in the first place, and it was more or less a 1.01 train from there, with a few again stops of resistance - always works out well when the team you favour end up a 1.01 train though.

Was delighted to see Cotto really give Margarito a beating last night, IMO it proves Margarito used the illegal wraps last time they met, he only got caught with them in his next fight but anyone that watched 24/7 could see the photos after the first Cotto fight and judge for themselves, IMO he definitely used them, so a bit of boxing justice there! I ended up going out to watch that, and ended up at Fairyhouse today too so its been a busy weekend, really hoping Tiger can finish it off nicely tonight. No money on him because I thought 3/1 was a bit short at the start, hes slightly odds on as I type, but sure a Sunday night watching the golf from the couch with no hassle is always great when Tigers involved, although I have to say I dont really have a huge amount of faith in him getting it done, hopefully though, it'll be good for the game to have him back winning.

And lastly, I know it was around the place this week, I think it made the national news (Haha!), but I am a true romantic deep down really and you never know maybe Mark reads the blog. So Mark, if youre reading, I think youre a Daddy.. YAY!

Discipline

2011-11-27T20:20:00.010Z

Its been a weird sort of day today even though I havent done anything on Betfair, started off brilliantly with our new horse, Kitty Dillon, having her first run in a p2p this morning and finishing third - everyone was delighted with that and she'll have learned loads being held up and coming through them and was given a relatively easy time of it, at least we know now we'll get a few decent days with her when she gets to the track, it'd have been terrible if she finished last this morning or something. Then an hour or so later you hear Gary Speed was found hanging in his own house, very sad news. Its nearly always said when things like this happen but it does put life into perspective, you think of all the daily things we give out or moan about it, when we dont appreciate what we have really. I complain when the weather is cold FFS, when the wind is blowing too much on the golf course, its daft really, all the nonsense we talk about pales into insignificance compared to what some have to deal with on a daily basis.

Anyway, going back to last Sunday, I ended up laying Misha B for bottom two - I wanted to on Saturday but the market took her out to odds against, then Sunday after posting she went back odds on so was happy enough laying after the sob story. Its hard to find an angle tonight, I actually dont like any of them, Misha and Janet are both odds on bottom two and I would lay them but the other three seem pretty strong - there must be a fair chance Janet will get the sympathy vote which Misha got last week, problem is they'll probably drag each other down, not confident enough to put money down anyway.

Then up bright eyed and brushy tailed for the finish of the test on Monday, it worked out well in the sense that Aus won in the end, not before going out to 12 though, and not before the draw hit 1.3s, Saffers traded odds on too, it was crazy..!

On my screen shot last week all three were sitting at 2.3+ so whatever you backed it could have worked out well. I've been doing Pak v Lanka too but having some troubles, erm, almost confusing - at the end of each game I've thought "I could have won more there" while at the same time thinking "lucky I didnt lose a fortune.." I did make exactly the same mistake as I did on Eng v India though in ruining a good book, going from this..

To this in under 10 minutes..

Its that top up again, exactly as Eng v India. Erm, I dont know how to fix it really or avoid it because sure if you think the odds are good youre gonna back it, at the same time the hard work has already been done for the most part at that stage and as I said the last time, if it goes go tits up without the top up, can go €100ish equal at around evens and its still a good days work, whereas with the top up its back to square one if it does go wrong with no cushion. The conclusion was I was probably being greedy, but its hard to actually 'fix' the idea that I shouldnt top up when I think a team are big in price - just it always goes wrong for me! The odd thing about it is as a first bet into a market, I would probably never go near the top up odds, most times the first move into the market is odds against or 1.6+ or something, you know I wouldnt be bothered backing a 1.3 shot first up.

I got a good comment last week on discipline, and basically how I managed to only bet/trade on certain sports compared to others. Its got to the stage where I know what I can do and I know what I cant - and I can accept what I cant do, example being I know I'm fairly shit at trading soccer, a shame because I love watching it but I just cant trade it. But what I normally do is, ever see those desk calendar thingys - Sunday night or Monday morning I'll look at the schedule (livesportontv.com is handy at times) and pencil in the games I want to do.. obviously last week I put in Saffers v Aus as a priority and then things like India v Windies as a 'maybe' and things like that.

So when I'm sitting at my desk, and on Betfair, I'm here for a reason - to work on whatever game - and when theres nothing on my schedule to do I wont go near Betfair, I never ever log into Betfair for entertainment, if I've a blank day (and there are a good few in the winter) I go off and find something else to do, wouldnt even think of Betfair.

You know people always tend to say its ignorant when you dont follow all the news or current affairs happening around you, but I cant follow and do everything on Betfair - so if something happens in the tennis, its blunt but I really dont care, its none of my business, I can only care about so much stuff that goes on. Its a running joke here that 'I live in a bubble' but I'm not an expert on all sports so I have to live in a little (sports I can do) bubble to make things work.

The only way I can compare it to something is watching the news - if something happens in say France, sure who cares I live in Ireland, I wouldnt have a feckin' clue what happened in a different country if it wasnt for the internet. Now thats probably ignorant, but same sort of thing with Betfair, if something happens on Snooker, sure who cares because I'm a cricket/boxing/GAA trader. Its impossible to do everything.

Obviously over time things change and I have to change with them or I get left behind, things get taken away from me, a lot more so than given, horse racing got taken away with the start of people going to the course - that was more so to do with the technology that allowed it really, so doing it from home became unworkable (for me anyway). The darts, someone started going to all the Premier League games and was miles in front of the Betfair clock, that made it equally very hard to trade - you make a mistake youre punished without getting a chance to cancel and you do something right youre not matched. Boxing, Prizefighter changed the rules this year so that the draw is made live on Sky before the fights, I can completely understand it from a non-betting viewers point of view, but not giving us the markets until two minutes before the off was such a killer for liquidity. But sure I just dont put them down on the desk calendar and maybe put down an extra cricket match or GAA match (in the summer) and then instead of being at the desk for Fontwell on a Monday I'm off playing golf, gym, visiting the Grandparents going odd jobs for them, having the usual date night, whatever, and I'm at my desk another time when theres something on thats fair to do (in the market sense of fair).

As for staking/chasing discipline, well I've never been a chaser - but clocking in and clocking out does help, because its like finishing work, I just go after the game is over without even thinking. Obviously its easier because there might be only one game I want to do most days, but when its over win or lose I clock off without thinking - IMO naturally horse racing is the most 'chasy' sport because theres a race every five minutes or so, even then I was never into chasing. Its just been imprinted into me that gambling never finishes because it just goes on and on and on, so being up/down at the end of a day is irrelevant - but I say irrelevant and then if given the chance to be level I always take it rather than risk losing, but I'm getting more risk averse as I get older, and try and pick positions that if things go wrong I can go level and if things go right I win - again, thats something thats changed with Betfair changing too, you can be risk averse on a test match no problem, you cant really be risk averse on a 5F sprint at The Curragh.

In terms of staking, I have always used the 'feel it yourself' idea that at the given time I'll pick the stake anywhere between €50 and €500 on how confident I am at the time, its just the way I've always done it. Most of betting/trading is down to what suits the person rather than whats viewed as "normal" anyway, you have people who are obsessed with the word 'value' and you have people like me who never use it (I HATE the word!), its all just down to what suits the individual.

20/11/2011

2011-11-20T19:25:00.006Z

I'll try keep this a little short because I have a touch of the flu. Quiet enough week on the P&L because I've been concentrating on the Saffer v Aus 2nd test, and currently have this going into tomorrow..

Its been good..! All three outcomes have traded odds on, and all three have traded 9+ I think too. Erm, tomorrow is tough to price up - I think the draw is short but we have lost the last session a couple of times this week and if play is slow tomorrow and they need 10 overs after tea that would be a worry, I'd have Aus shorter and Saffers longer but theres not a huge difference there - I wouldnt disagree strongly with anyone for saying either are a bet tbh.

Aus are going at 3.8 per over atm which would lead you to think they need another 45(ish) overs to win, which is why the draw, albeit short, is understandable enough - bad light is going to be a huge factor so much depends on the time it arrives really, which is anyones guess, then lose an early wicket and they might slow down a little and need more overs to chase it.

I'd probably favour Aus if given a €500 free bet but obviously dont want an overnight position and waiting for conditions in the morning, I trust Ponting, Clarke and Hussey - wouldnt want Haddin walking in with them needing anything more than 50 though. An added factor with me too, with no real gambling logic, is I've traded it from bed yesterday and today feeling shite with man flu, I've got to +€2.6k and dont want to make a complete bollocks of it now, it would break my heart! Thats probably the main reason why I havent added €555 to the results and gone small red on the draw.

Anyway that'll be next weeks P&L - this week is just a very quiet €32.72.. I did have a max liability lay on Sri Lanka at 1.4, and the market flipped twice, but muggins here only made €30. My own fault solely rather than events being out of my hands, and the second game was during the test so that wasnt given any real focus.

Amazing Scenes

2011-11-13T17:58:00.013Z

Crazy week on Betfair - the Saffer v Aus test match was mental, you thought it was bad Saffers getting rolled for 96, half an hour later Aus were getting rolled for 47, having been 21/9! The lowest score in the history of test cricket is 26 by the way, but anyway, obviously I didnt help my cause my sleeping in and missing the Saffer collapse - I'm not sure if this is true or not, but its great if it is..

On a more serious note about missing the collapse, I've fallen into a bit of a 'lazy' attitude towards Betfair since I got my cast off and I'm going to have to snap out of it starting tomorrow. Understandable really not being able to do anything for three weeks and then getting free rein to do whatever you want again, but next week I'm setting an alarm and no more swanning around. If I learned anything its I rarely win doing things half arsed.

So I ended up down €100 on cricket this week, but got that back on Tiger going low in Australia so it wasnt so bad - out of curiosity I went back through Excel, the last time I had a losing week on Betfair was the 3rd of July, but that was the weekend of Haye v Klitschko and I had won the 'Go The Distance' bet with William Hill, the last time I had an over all losing week was the 23rd of May - had to update records on the Monday because my Broadband went down on the Wednesday that week (must be crap at mobile betting, add it to the list!) Obviously with the England v India series being so easy (relatively easy compared to everything else) those records are fairly misrepresented, and theres been plenty of weeks with +€2, +€5, and +€7 P&Ls but if I was picking one thing this year I've got better at its not taking as much risks in the sense of leaving myself in positions where things can go very wrong very fast, I'm still making wrong moves (because obviously everyone does) but I'm getting away with level when I do. And sure if ya dont lose, ya can only win..! (Well, in theory..)

But anyway, Tiger wasnt on TV this week for a few holes so I could snipe with information from Twitter (you can that with cricket too, amazing tool Twitter), and had this:

But then, you know, 'new' Tiger is a bit of a mug compared to old Tiger so I squared, somewhat unhappily at the time, but it worked out with him finishing third, and my Aussie Wallet got a run out for the first time in months.

One more thing to highlight if you havent noticed, Amelia Lily has been brought back to X Factor after Frankie getting the boot, shes currently trading as favourite having traded at 1000. I know its easy to say now, and sure enough I wasnt thinking this at the time either, but laying 1000 on someone who wasnt kicked off through public vote is very chancy, there was always a slim chance (less than 1000/1 anyway) they could bring those four who didnt face the public vote back at whatever stage. Its not like a horse antepost market where you can pick up 'free money' sometimes, in a market where they can change the rules at any stage, laying 1000 is scary (to me anyway). There must be some huge green and red books out there.

My opinion on low odds has always been the same, if something is 1.01 and fair enough it might be a 1/500 chance, but if I have €1,000 I hardly need a fecking tenner do I, I'd rather have an even tenner on something random in the next market. Its always a much discussed topic with different opinions that one.

Finally A Big One

2011-11-06T18:56:00.008Z

He finally did it..!

Last night was great in town, shame I wasnt there but having said that I had no intention of going. Delighted for the horse more so than anything else, even given the history with the youngest jockey angle and all the father/son combo stuff, hes been called a fair few names at this stage and sure (IMO anyway) the only thing he ever did wrong was get sent off a near odds on hyped up favourite for the 2000G (and that form even turned out alright in the end). Some turn of foot when things go well, been a good season all things considered winning the Coronation, good run in the Arc and now winning at the Breeders Cup, only small let down was the King George but that turned into a bit of a farce with the early pace and poor Rewilding breaking down. Ah, just delighted for him to win! Woooosh..!

Anyway, its been a quiet week as foreseen with the Sky schedule, I tried doing the Zim v NZ test but it wasnt on TV and I hate trading on links, but must have been one of the best day 5s ever though, I didnt do the whole test but I think Zimmers went from 55s into 1.8ish, NZ out to 12ish before winning, and I think the draw was 1.5 or thereabouts with an hour left too.

Small note on Betfair being pretty poor managing the market, I paid commission with it at 1.01 they left it open so long (so that was handy for me) but got to feel sorry for all those who left money from 1.5 to 1.01 when the last wicket went down. Shite service really, put it this way, imagine if it happened on a soccer market.. wait you dont even have to imagine that because it would never happen!

Nearly 10M matched its not like its a small market either, there will always be snipers but they left it for ages. Suppose its a perfect example of Betfair rules really, there are no rules, kill or be killed and everyone for themselves.

Hopefully next week will be more eventful, I get bored after a while with very little on. Sometimes I miss the racing because its always on every day but then I remember the time advantage other people have so just have to think staying away from it is actually making me money. Its not really a bad thing missing it as the BHA still seem intent on ruining it anyway, "I feel sorry for the owners and a little for the sport, too, because I used to think the racing in this country was the best place to be riding in the world and you worry about what every other county in the world now thinks of you." AP McCoy speaking today.

30/10/2011

2011-10-30T18:57:00.012Z

Well, absolutely amazingly fantastic week this week with a smashing profit of €2.49, I've got this game by the bollocks! WHOS THE DADDY.

So, anyway, it was a week of winning and losing.. there was only three cricket games though and the liquidity on Prizefighter was terrible so I never bothered with that - having the draw live is really ruining it IMO, it probably makes sense from a non-betting point of view but not giving us the markets until 2 minutes before the off is a terrible idea.

And I got caught up in that England collapse on Tuesday, theres not much you can say about it really, a top team (someone that isnt Bangladesh or Windies for example) shouldnt go from 129/0 to 176AO. I had this book beforehand anyway..

Something along those lines would always be my book (when things go well) just because its the way I always do things by leaving all green on the team I fancy, whether its right or wrong is a matter of opinion but its the way I do things anyway and have always done apart from when I dont have such a strong opinion. So thats grand - and the plan from there then is if things start to go tits up I can go level at €150ish green at evens, and thats still a good day. The only reason I finished with nothing is because I topped up on England at 1.5s after they lost two wickets, but again no regrets there because it seemed a cracking price at the time, it didnt last long though..! Its just one of those things you know, anybody that seen an England collapsing coming like that is a better man than me. Certain things happen and theres not much you can do.

Other than that, what I won on Saffers v Aus was given back on the T20 yesterday. The better news is I have my arm back, success! And even managed to get two rounds in this week too and it felt OK, got 90 first go back at Bellewstown off scratch on Thursday, anything under 100 would have done I only got the cast thingy off Wednesday, and then today played 9 at Elm Hall, got back to normality a bit and was on 34 with the 18th to go, and well, lesson learned about the clocks going back..

It was fun playing 16 and 17 blind though! Looking at the Sky schedule for next week I think I have a blank week, but surely something will pop up, hopefully. I know theres sport coming in the early morning from 'round the world but I'm desperately trying to stay on "normal time" for as long as possible, there will come a time I have to switch but hopefully it can be pushed back a few further weeks. I have ten times more fun being nocturnal but really my life goes to pot, theres only so much nighttime gambling and drinking/clubbing/casino-ing the body can take.. Just think about it when youve a blank day of trading, youre very limited in what options you have during the night, great fun though, in saying that I'm ten times more healthy, and win ten times more, in the summer when life is relatively normal, I say relatively because this house could never ever be deemed normal..

23/10/2011

2011-10-23T19:50:00.004+01:00

Its been a good week. Mostly due to the weather over in South Africa, everyone was watching the clean up operation via an online stream with no comms so it was hard enough to see exactly what was going on, but I managed to clock they were turning the covers over (or something to that effect) while taking them off - which meant they had to go forwards then backwards, which looked like they were putting them back on, but they werent they were just turning them over. There were four covers, they did it with each one, and every time they looked as if they were going back on the market was swinging from 1.7ish one side to 1.6ish the other, it was great..!

Then the India v England games have been good for trading, its following the same pattern as the English summer really except India have turned into English England and England have turned into English India, India have started odds on, England have traded odds on - India have gone from 2.5 to 1.08 then back to 2.1, even when caught you get a chance to recover you know, theyve been fair markets.

The whip debate continues to rumble on. Ruby Walsh got banned for a fantastic ride yesterday - but I think its "good" that the A-listers are getting banned, and I use the word "good" in the sense that its only when they get banned that something might get done about it, example being the jockeys didnt want to go out for the following race and only did when the trainers were called to the stewards room (apparently, or something like that). You know, with the greatest respect, if a nobody gets banned no one really cares, but when you get the A-listers start getting banned you start to get a bit of support and more of the smaller jockeys look to them to lead the way, so hopefully it might get sorted out soon. Although I wouldnt be holding my breath with the BHA.

Couple of stories to note this week, one being Betfair might have plans to turn into fixed-odds bookmaker (aside to the exchange obviously), I dont really like the idea - as everyone knows with books its all highly likely to end up with closed accounts etc and going down that general road. I dont put any pass on the figures given by Bloomberg - but its the idea thats the worrying bit. We shall see sure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/betfair-may-boost-profit-with-fixed-odds-sports-bets-numis-says.html

Betfair Group Plc (BET), the world’s biggest person-to-person online betting exchange, could increase profit by more than 50 percent with a new fixed-odds sports betting plan, according to Numis Securities.

In April, Betfair is planning to offer fixed-odds betting alongside its exchange bets to increase choice, a step that could help increase its dominance in commercial sports betting, analyst Ivor Jones said in a note to investors.

The new system could let Betfair tap into the advantages offered by fixed-odds betting, such as greater selection, earlier bets and more multiple wagers, Jones said. Betfair’s betting exchanges allow customers to bet against each other, rather than against the house, as at traditional bookmakers such as William Hill Plc (WMH) and Ladbrokes Plc. (LAD)

“If Betfair came to dominate fixed odds sports betting, in the same way it currently dominates overall sports betting, then it has the potential to more than double group profits,” Jones wrote, adding that the calculations are “highly speculative.’ He has a “buy” recommendation on Betfair.

In June, Betfair said it’s developing an “integrated” sports betting product that will allow it to offer more bets during games and other wagers.

And another story about our good friend Mario Balotelli - he set his house on fire this week by letting off fireworks, wait for it, inside his bathroom.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/oct/22/mario-balotelli-house-fire-fireworks

Mario Balotelli's remarkable capacity for self-inflicted problems resurfaced on the eve of the Manchester derby when he had to escape from his burning house after a fire caused by letting off fireworks in the bathroom in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Two fire crews using breathing apparatus put out the flames after being called to Balotelli's house just before 1am on Saturday to deal with what has been described as "a substantial fire" on the first floor. The property, in Mottram St Andrew, Cheshire, sustained serious fire and smoke damage, and the police were also called – in part to ensure Balotelli did not go back into the house. The striker is said to have been reluctant to leave his belongings and, at one point, to have run back inside to recover a quantity of money and a suitcase.

Still didnt stop him scoring two today against United..!

I'm looking forward to next week, will be hopefully back to normal by the weekend in regards to the arm with a visit to the doctor this week - I miss golf and the gym terribly. Healthy body, healthy mind and all that - its important to have a big list of things to do away from gambling to relax and get away from it, that makes it far more easier to forget what happened yesterday, be it good or bad, and start every day blank, the best thing about gambling is theres always a tomorrow to look forward to, because sporting events and opportunities are never ending!

16/10/2011

2011-10-16T17:10:00.010+01:00

Well, its been a good week considering the body pain from falling. The blog name obviously lends itself to the idea I was bound to fall and injure myself at some stage! I have to stop laughing at other people falling too, this is what happens when youve been brought up watching Youve Been Framed. Dont think I've ever mentioned this but I got the name for the blog from the Apres Match piss take of the Carlsberg Gaffer Falls ad, and I thought Gambler, dont take things seriously either, Gambler Falls..

Anyway, felt a bit robbed on the boxing last night to be honest, I had it very close, everybody on my Twitter timeline had it close, and Dave Parris comes up with a 5 round verdict, you can always nearly tell when you search and see even non-gamblers think it was a rubbish call..

As I said last night, if it was 1 or 2 rounds you know you can understand as usual because it was close, but 117-112 is just a joke. What can you do though, the worst thing about it was the market knew too - how Bellew was staying between 5 and 6 while the rounds seemed so close I dont know. Generally I dont like leaving things on Betfair in the hands of other people, because youre always faced with total gobshitery - but what can you do with the odds.

The cricket has gone better, except for England going from 111/2 to 174AO, that was a near enough straight line killer.

Funny thing being away from home, if that happened in England - they would have just shrugged the first wicket off and kept going but instead collapse. I got out of it, but only because I had a handy position when it happened, I dont mind finishing with a tenner because I wasnt thinking about taking the €300ish green at the time anyway, if they went at 6.5 for 10 that left 137 off 20 with 8 wickets in hand which seemed very do-able, thats what I was working off in Excel at the time but sure things change quickly, as ever.

I want to say something about the new whip rule this week, but I dont know where to start.. its a shambles altogether. As a racing man, or ex-racing man probably better put now, I cant understand why the whip is deemed cruel - I'm of the opinion that every "racing man/woman" can look at a race and SEE for themselves if the jockey has been overly excessive in his/her use of the whip, when you watch enough races you easily spot these things, IMO Jamie Spencer in the last few hundred yards on Cape Blanco was overly harsh..

Now obviously there are different rules in the USA from the UK - but no one likes to see that, when the horse had already won, but the point is you very rarely see things like that happen in the UK anyway, the ironic thing is racehorses are probably the best looked after animals on the earth. I would argue too (just for nuisance sake) that if the whip is deemed cruel, well then surely making the horses jump fences and hurdles is cruel - I've never seen a horse have to be put down from the whip, but I have seen them put down from falling. Where do you stop? Making them run fast is cruel, and on, and on, and on..

The problem with trying to please "the man down in Tesco" (as Matt Chapman put it this week), is that the man down in Tesco hasnt got the first fucking clue about racing. Changing the rules to appease these people is nonsense IMO, but then again what do you expect from the BHA. It all started to go downhill when they watered down the midweek racing to make it so weak, the prizemoney doesnt help then because of such volume of racing at low levels, and then you have courses putting on bands after racing to try and get people in the gates - clearly missing the point and not attracting people for just the pure racing - but when theyre given five handicaps and two claimers what can they do? The days of horse racing being the only available betting vehicle are long gone so you wont attract the masses like say soccer does, its a minority sport - so cater for that and please the people who are interested in it, dont ruin the game to please a few outsiders, run the game to please the minority - the loyal core supporters.

When the man down in Tesco who does one bet a year on the Grand National says the whip is cruel, he should be looked square in the eyes and told he doesnt know anything about the sport and to go fuck himself. FACT. Now you could do it more politely but they need to be told to stay out of other peoples business.

I actually care about this a lot because I'm faced every day coming from Ireland with "cricket is so boring" .. "have you ever watched a game" .. "No.." .. "Well then WTF do you know about it." Same thing. Racing people can be the only ones to judge what is and what isnt deemed cruel, not outsiders. The man in Tesco can keep his bollocks opinions in Tesco thanks, we'll go racing.

Out Of Order

2011-10-10T11:25:00.010+01:00

I'm bunched.

Movement with the hand will be an issue for trading, but the gist of it is basically I was jogging yesterday morning on grass in the local park, as you do, went to cross a path walkway and somehow completely lost my left leg and went down on my head.. ended up in Hermitage hospital for a cat scan and hooked up to an IV for two odd hours and everything.

I'm house bound for five days with concussion and casted for two weeks plus, so I'm not sure how the betting/blogging will go. But its only when youre being lay down in the machine to see if youve done damage to your brain you realise money and everything all pales into insignificance really, when youre going to bed at night you cant replace the people around you, regardless of what you have.

It was probably the scariest moment of my life not being able to see after hitting my head, I had to walk back to the house somehow too because I had no phone with me, did it off memory because I cant remember getting home, I remember my vision was so bad when I stood in front of the mirror to see where the blood was coming from I couldnt see my reflection, at all, then couldnt see the numbers on the phone to ring for help, I've had better Sunday mornings to be honest now. But anyway, I'm still alive!

And, sitting waiting for the cat scan, to see if you need brain surgery, bleeding on the brain, your head is all fussy and you cant see properly, you feel weird from the IV and your hand/arm has already been X-rayed and wrapped, your loved one turns to you and she says "at least were getting some value out of our VHI plan now Stephen" Oh yeah, same time again next week yeah..! Oddly enough we both started laughing and then nurses rushed in because they thought we were crying. You have to pay on the day (can claim back obviously) but Hermitage is a top, top place. First class service.

Paris

2011-10-03T10:58:00.009+01:00

I'll try keep this short, trying to get on with the painting - The Arc this weekend was a great excuse not to start! Hopefully the whole redecoration business is finished by the 13th when international cricket is back.

Anyway, Paris was fantastic yesterday in the sun, I've lost interest in racing this year to the point where I dont even check to see whos running these days but I think we'll always go to The Arc every year, great value for the racing and great course - I think we'll always go to Epsom too, but only because it always falls on my birthday weekend, my days at Cheltenham and Royal Ascot are over I reckon.

I thought St Nic ran an absolute blinder, my heart hasnt pumped like it did turning in for a while, I thought he was going to win for a while. Then at the end I was thinking just hold on for the place but they always finish fast in France and sure he just lost out finishing 5th, still a cracking run, and while not good enough to collect cant help but still be proud of him.

I'm going to defend Heffernan on So You Think - not because I think he did well, but because IMO he only did what he was told to do, if I was blaming someone I'd blame APOB miles before blaming Heffernan. Given the wide draw he had limited options though, bounce out fast, cut across and end up nearly making the running or come out and drop in behind. He was obviously told to drop in IMO, and sure once thats done you'll always need a dream run through and it didnt work out.

Its a real catch 22 situation when you think about it from the jockeys perspective, it must be intimidating having Coolmore dictate to you what to do - so you go out there and if you do something that isnt what they told you and lose, you know you'll get hung, drawn and quartered (Spencer didnt last long). Then on the other hand, you do what they tell you, and lose - like Ryan Moore at Royal Ascot on SYT, APOB takes the blame and the jockey was only "following orders." Its easy to think about it like a punter, but the jockey is only basically doing what hes told by his employer just like any other job. In an ideal world, you'd let the horse bounce out and then let the jock decide what pace and position to take, but thats never going to happen with APOB.

But anyway, thankfully my days of going over a race, analysing and studying it are long gone, huzzah! Its only when you leave it you realise how much guess work is involved compared to in-running trading on other sports.

I said last week, with the house up in a heap I'd keep things under €200ish - that lasted three days, I cracked Thursday..

I was in the process of laying off when a wicket went down, but instead topped up, things change quickly..

Very disappointed with the rain on Friday, I had my best book of the week, ironic thing being England where in the middle of a heatwave, and its raining in India..

I always like backing the chasing team at Bangalore, its one of the best chasing grounds in the world IMO - its where Ireland chased against England at the WC too, hitting sixes always looks so effortless.

Was a bit daft on the boxing but only lost 12 quid thankfully, forgot I wouldnt be able to access Betfair in France so left zero on Rees and red on the unknown guy (to me anyway), it finished a draw.. lucky it wasnt a couple of hundred. Very awkward result for Rees on his first defense.

Also a small word on X Factor, the live shows start Saturday, the market has clocked the fact no person should be 300s, like Wagner last year, but its hard to find an obvious act that will be this years Jedward/Wagner. Everyone will be looking for the winner but theres more money in getting the fellow who goes from 100+ to single figures, sadly the market knows this now and doesnt have anyone 100+.. I think if there is to be a cult following of someone not good at singing it'll come from Louis four, Louis is obviously very shrewd, but I think atm the person he picked for it (Goldie Cheung) has pulled out - maybe she knew! It could be Johnny Robinson, whos 70 on Betfair, but realistically how many weeks does he have to stay in to get a good trade from 70s, as I said the market has clocked on a fair bit.

Last year Betfair didnt have a bottom two or three market either every week (and when they did they voided it) which ruined things a fair bit, the funny shit one will be odds on in that so it was always a great lay for the first few weeks. Point to remember too - singers towards the front early on always do badly, and its not an actual singing contest until the last five or six, as Louis would say "youve got likability" its whoever people like, Wagner proved that last year and remember when Simon saved Jedward (against a favourite at the time too) but apparently he "hated" them, votes and newspaper headlines = $$$$.

Back Down To Earth

2011-09-25T19:44:00.009+01:00

Well it was always going to be a struggle after England v India finished, but going straight from a summer of Tests and ODIs into the craziness of the Champions League T20 (basically spin off of the IPL really) has been fairly difficult to start with. Its starting to pick up now over the weekend but I was all over the place in the earlier games, I suppose its a bit like going from trading 3M chases to trading 5F sprints.

I've been stitched right up by the Sky planner for live cricket too, I've been getting nagged to paint the house since June, but managed to push it back to now(ish), asking for the England v India to finish which made sense all things considered. So, I look at the Sky planner, it says no cricket until the 13th of October, I think GREAT, I get to look good now devoting three weeks. Completely forgot about the Champions League on Eurosport, and now I'm committed to the redecorating theres no stopping it once in full flow, head in hands..

Hopefully its not too much of a distraction because theres games every day in the CL, head in hands again, what have I got myself into..

I think my desk and TV are being moved, added to the room painted, so I'm planning to keep trades under €200ish liability or thereabouts until were finished. I still recall the last time the house was all up in a heap when the cat was sick for the two weeks, I lost €800+ which was one of my worst runs ever - I'm keen not to do anything daft, its easy to lose once you take your eye off the ball, and instead of checking Betfair I'm checking wall colour charts.. (again with the head in hands there, yep).

Anyway, not much good press for Betfair this week, I know they dont get any good press really these days, but these two stories arent nice to hear, especially them taking £52k out from an account - and the second one, noting that their user base has dropped 19%.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8782921/Betfair-removed-52000-from-customers-account.html

Betfair 'removed £52,000 from customer's account'
A Betfair punter is threatening legal action against the betting exchange after a dispute over more than £52,000 that he claims has been removed from his account.

Sandip Sayaniya, who aired his grievance outside the company's annual meeting on Thursday, claimed he was not the only customer involved in a row over "premium charges".

Betfair initially deducted 20pc of gross profits from successful punters gambling in more than 250 betting markets. In July, such charges were raised to 40pc to 60pc for customers who have won more than £250,000.

Mr Sayaniya alleges he has bet in less than 250 markets and made a £24,000 profit. However, he claims that on September 5 his account was suspended "under investigation of Premium Charge avoidance". On September 20 he received an email from Betfair's "pricing team" stating his account shared a similar betting strategy with four others, all of which would be taken into consideration for the charges. Betfair deducted all £52,352.85 in his account.

Mr Sayaniya, who plans to start legal action by next Thursday if the money is not repaid, said: "I do not recognise any of the other four accounts named by Betfair, and have never operated any account other than my own."

A Betfair spokesman said: "We thoroughly investigated this matter and we determined that the customer was evading payment of the required fees." He added that Betfair's legal department was happy to "discuss it with him further".

..

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2040750/MARKET-REPORT-Betfair-shuffles-executives.html

The news that Betfair founder and chairman Edward Wray could be the next senior manager to leave the embattled online gambling firm, will be met with raised eyebrows among investors.

The FTSE 250 business, which allows gamblers to bet against each other rather than against a traditional bookmaker, is already looking for a new chief executive after David Yu said in June he would move on when a successor is found.

But at yesterday’s annual meeting Wray, a former JP Morgan trader who co-founded the business ten years ago, said the firm had ‘started the search for a deputy chairman. The intention is for this person to take over from me as chairman at an appropriate time in the future’. This follows a spate of other senior executives who have also left the business in recent months.

And while all this has gone on investors have seen Betfair’s stock almost halve since it floated last October at £13, with a value of £1.3billion. Betfair yesterday closed down 60p at 723p, valuing it at £839million. The business has faced a number of disappointments and delays as it has tried to push its services into a host of European countries, such as Germany, Denmark, Italy and Spain.

And in August the UK government revealed online gaming companies based offshore would need a domestic licence to take bets from British customers. Betfair moved its headquarters to Gibraltar in March to save around £20million a year.

These constraints on growth are beginning to affect the business, at the start of this month the firm turned in first-quarter core sales down 7pc to £80.8million, with the number of active customers down 19 per cent to 381,000.

For Betfair the wider economic climate is tough, and the regulatory issues it faces are protracted. Investors will want to see a settled management quickly in place, who can then set about getting the share price moving in the right direction again.

..

One small point I picked up on too - I was always under the impression there was more users than 381,000.. not because I had any facts to back it up or anything, just because it always feels "busy" and you cant make mistakes at all without being cut at the throat. Maybe the 381,000 are just addicted gamblers like me though..! Sure were a great bunch of lads.

Amazing Scenes

2011-09-18T19:09:00.008+01:00

Well, what a weekend.

I was up until the early hours last night to watch Mayweather, that didnt disappoint! I think the interview was almost better than the fight though.. "I wish I was 50 years younger and I'd kick your ass..!" Banter.

As for the KO, well you know 'defend yourself at all times,' thats boxing. I think it was a real 50/50 in terms of that Ortiz was looking at the ref, but you know youre in a fight why is he staring at the ref and not have at least half an eye on Mayweather. I can defend the KO punch Mayweather threw, but no one can defend the headbutt from Ortiz, that was a disgrace, awful stuff. I thought Ortiz came across as a bit daft last night really, for starters why didnt he at least try to bring his hands up after the first punch - Floyd hit him and he was still looking at the ref, and afterwards Mayweather said if he wants a rematch he can have one - why was he stood there in his interview grinning like an eejit (after getting knocked out!) and didnt mention a rematch once, he got paid 20 times more for this fight than his second biggest pay day. No idea why him, and more so his team, didnt jump on the rematch comment straight away. But anyway, lets be honest Mayweather was winning the fight (I dont usually back the 1.2s but backed 1.29 between the 2nd and the 3rd) and IMO he would have knocked him out in the later rounds anyway, same outcome different story really.

Anyway, thats not quite as amazing scenes as Dublin becoming All Ireland Champions today, how Kerry lost it from being 4pts up with less than 10 minutes to go is anyones guess but credit to Dublin. Extremely difficult market to trade with confidence towards the end, draw traded odds on for a moment too, I made a bit of a balls of it really having backed Dublin - but that tends to happen when you back something at 2.4ish and then have to watch them go out to 12, before coming back. I really dislike the bandwagon fans (there were plenty today) but that 15/8 bet before the semi final eases that. Thats it for another year then, I dont bet on the GAA leagues.

India finished their tour of England on Friday too. Really, really, REALLY sad to see them leave, what a great series in terms of winning and trading. I was crowing about not getting my biggest ever ODI win for the blog last week with the tie, its like buses, I got it this week.. and thankfully this time it wasnt a tie!

Its been almost weird - the absolute confidence in England winning, I've never had that before, especially over such a long period of time. Often times you know, strongly on something and its a max bet and very confident, but it almost goes beyond confidence its like "they'll win.." and even when India trade sub 1.3 (theyve nearly hit 1.3 every limited over game) youre still sitting there going "Well, England will win.." Obviously its all over now though and I have to find another way of making money, and go back to normal, being thousands green on every game is definitely not normal, whatever about a couple of hundred. England travel to India shortly for an ODI series, it'll be interesting to see how the market prices it up, obviously conditions will be completely different, England will probably be lucky to win two games or so out there.

And what about poor Fernando Torres..

Whats the difference between Fernando Torres and Wayne Bridge? John Terry appreciates Wayne Bridges missus.

Speaking of which, watched Fast Five this week, its alright, The Rock is in it, its on Sky Box Office atm, but theres a girl in it called Gal Gadot - never heard of her before, didnt think anyone could beat Irina Shayk, but shes an amazingly good looking woman.

Ouch!

2011-09-11T20:33:00.005+01:00

Well, just back from Milanos for dinner and about to watch Strike Back Project Dawn on the couch (both highly recommended!), I'm a bit happier now after the tie this evening, that was sore, very sore..

(That would have been the biggest ODI win on the blog too.)

BUT, anyway, no one died, I didnt lose and life goes on. What can you do sure, no point complaining about something I cant change. Missing out on upwards of €2k in the space of two weeks on ties isnt great craic, not at all, but its just one of those things really. Complaining about something I have no control over would be a form of insanity and more importantly a waste of time.

I might be a little bit more fed up if it wasnt such a good week.. the ODIs have presented awesome opportunities with India going odds on and then England winning. I've been backing England all summer so that series of events will always work out perfectly for me, and its good to have competitive games. India getting on the plane to go home will be a sad, sad day.

All my ODI books, Test books, have been exactly the same all summer really.

I see the Hunky Dory ads are back this time going for GAA instead of Rugby, it really is a seriously clever tactic in Ireland, huge amount of time for it given the money it makes effectively using negative people to give it coverage, apparently the ads have "sparked fury," but in actual fact the people complaining against them has given them nationwide coverage at a percentage of the advertising cost. I was reading that during the last campaign 300 odd people complained - and Hunky Dorys added 1.5 million in value to the company, very good for an Irish company not even number one in its own market. Its such great business. I'm full sure the people talking about it dont realise theyre just doing exactly what Hunky Dorys want them to do but anyway.

04/09/2011

2011-09-04T19:24:00.010+01:00

Fairly quiet week this week, we had the end of the T20 competition last weekend and today (even though I wasnt trading it because of the All Ireland) we had the semi finals of the 40 over competition, so that'll be that for having cricket on every day for the winter months.

Theres only one GAA game left this summer too with the hurling finishing up today, was delighted to see Kilkenny win, best team won dont think anyone could argue that. Luckily the boxing season started back on Sky on Saturday night, so that should somewhat replace GAA and at least hopefully chip in for the winter, liquidity wasnt great towards the start, but you can only make do with whats given, hopefully it'll pick up a bit over the next few weekends.

Speaking of boxing, if you love 24/7 as much as me you can watch the first one of Mayweather v Ortiz here. That Ortiz story is amazing when you think about it, the two boys raising themselves with nothing, but on the other hand, what sort of parents abandons children so young FFS..! And Mayweather is still, well, Mayweather. Although I do think the fight with the father at the end was a bit put on for the cameras, one thing that caught my eye was how many times Ortiz has been put on the floor in his last few fights, Mayweather by knockout is 9/4, no bookie has it that I can get on with and Betfair dont have that market up, but I thought it'd be shorter just from watching it.. I watched 24/7 before looking at the markets. No point having a bet before seeing the four 24/7s for more insight into the camps anyway.

The cricket was a bit lifeless this week, as I said just really have internationals now to go off, yesterdays ODI was voided because of rain, cant really make up my mind if I was happy or sad with it, but my book was like this at the time anyway:

And to follow on from the T20 ties last week, I said I'd want 60/1+ before thinking of covering it, the highest price matched was 55s on Eng v India. Its only a matter of opinion really but I'm happy to not cover it indefinitely, dont want to pass judgment because each to their own but those people backing 11 and 13 (a good bit out from the finish too) are just throwing money away long term. If you could lay 10/1 on a 60/1 shot every game you'd be laughing, the problem is finding someone to back 10/1 every game, as its a hit and miss low liquidity market all things considered.

I stayed in bed and missed all the low odds lays on the draw in Sri Lanka too, pure laziness, 5-30AM is a horrible time though in fairness. I'll have to snap out of that sharpish to keep things ticking for the winter, the worst thing about that is getting up I nearly feel obliged to take a position, which is a terrible way of thinking in test cricket.. theres no way of solving that problem though. Its not like an Eng Test where you'd be watching it even without a position, so can easily pick and choose moments, but getting up at 5-30 to "wait and see how things go" is pretty hard to do for five days in a row..!

Eight..

2011-08-28T19:22:00.010+01:00

Dublin scoring eight points in a game of GAA, Man United scoring eight goals in a game of soccer, the worlds gone mad..

I wont say much about the soccer, apart from the fact I feel awful sorry for the amount of abuse Arsene Wenger is getting, fair enough things arent going well but he deserves the utmost respect IMO, hes done a hell of a lot for Arsenal - all that good work doesnt just get threw away after three games. But sometimes too, you have to love Wayne Rooney..

Banter!

Anyway, Dublin conspired to feck up my HT/FT time bet, I'm not complaining too much as they didnt cover the handicap either. Not sure what to make of the performance, but a couple of good/bad points..
1) IMO, they were completely bottling it the first half, and would have got hammered by a stronger team.
2) They didnt score a point from play until the 59th minute. At any level, thats shite.
3) I thought they did well to comeback from three points down midway through the second half - I wouldnt have given them the backbone to do that before the game. Deserve a bit of credit there because that was very un-Dublin-like over the last few years.
4) Donegal only scored six points, that doesnt win games, so Dublin were lucky in that sense. Having said that Dublin only scored eight, that doesnt tend to win games either!
5) Donegal have a good defense yes, but Kildare scored 14 points against them in the Quarters, you'd expect Dublin could have done the same, at least, so it was pretty poor by anyones standards.
6) Obviously Kerry will be favourites for the final, and I reckon that will suit Dublin being underdogs. They definitely have the talent to win, whether or not they have the balls is another thing. Playing against anyone else today and we'd be sat here saying "classic Dublin bottling it again."
7) Looking forward to the Kerry v Dublin final!

So that was minus €90.50 with Paddy Power anyway, but the cricket has gone well this week. Someone commented last week "Bet you wish there was an England test every week" I really do! Life would be great if that was the case.

I said last Sunday I had a sneaky feeling for the draw and that was stopping me having all my green on England - very lucky I didnt because the draw went from 3.3 to 1.11 before India collapsed, could have easily ruined the book with that move.

The next Test series is between Sri Lanka and Australia, although I've clocked that its actually monsoon season, or as they call it, intermonsoonal season.. "The second season occurs in October and November, the intermonsoonal months. During this season, periodic squalls occur and sometimes tropical cyclones bring overcast skies and rains to the southwest, northeast, and eastern parts of the island." What sort of fecking eejit schedules a Test series in a monsoon season? FFS. No real surprise to see the market already like this days before the start..

EDIT: I copied and pasted the wrong season, doh! The first is from mid-May to October, when winds originate in the southwest, bringing moisture from the Indian Ocean. When these winds encounter the slopes of the Central Highlands, they unload heavy rains on the mountain slopes and the southwestern sector of the island.

Its at that stage of the year where laying the draw sub evens on the 1st day isnt such a good idea anymore, well not as much as the English summer anyway. It starts a 5-30 in the morning too, joy! Another small point about the possible pitch, the last Test match played at Galle saw Windies post a score of 580, you can be pretty sure the pitch is flat when Windies score 580..! That was the 15th of November 2010. If I was Sri Lanka I'd prepare a complete turner - Aus didnt play spin well in the T20s and ODIs, plus they havent got any real class spin bowling either.

Speaking of T20s, yesterday we had the English finals day - both semi finals finished ties, the first one didnt overly bother me, the second one did though, Somerset needed 6 off 8, then 2 off 4 FFS..

Head in hands.

Naturally lots of talk about covering the tie afterwards. Its all only a matter of opinion and whatever side of the fence you sit on really, I personally dont cover it, but 90%+ of the time I'd have all my green on one team anyway so it wouldnt make much sense. Statistically speaking, before yesterday there have been 39 ties in 2367 T20 matches, 39 goes into 2367 60.69 times, so in order to be getting "value" (I cant believe I just used that word, ugh!) you'd want to be getting matched on Betfair at 65. Now the actual chances of getting matched at 65 on a low liquidity market are pretty slim IMO, you'd almost have to back it before the game starts or during the first innings or something - you might not even be equal green match odds at that stage. After the three games, 41 goes into 2370 57.80 times, so you'd want 60 on Betfair, still the actual chances of getting fully matched are slim.

Plenty of people yesterday said "oh, you could have easily covered at 1.02 blah blah blah.." Well, youre backing a 65/1 shot at 50/1, and people always bang on about "value" thats not great is it, losing 15 points. My opinion on value is, everyones views of what is "value" will be different naturally so theres no point for all the arguing, just get on with it.

The only way you can learn to do something is by doing it anyway IMO, so after a while you learn what to do and what not to do, you cant just walk into a room and have someone tell you "thats value, that isnt.." because when theyre not there, and every single game is different, what do you do then? It just doesnt work like that because everyone thinks and sees the world differently, you can never have someone tell you what to think. And if you think about it, if everyone disagrees with you, you'll get a bigger price and win more money..

21/08/2011

2011-08-21T19:15:00.007+01:00

Quiet enough week on the P&L this week at +€7.82! Waiting for the 4th Test finish up tomorrow, but I did have a biggish position on Australia going back to Tuesday - they ended up losing, and I managed to get out of it at 25c.. which felt like a win.

Other than that I've been focused on the Test, and going into tomorrow have this:

Its been good, but not without bumps, I didnt agree with England declaring on 591, I know the rain forced their hand somewhat, but I reckon it'll come down to runs (if Sachin doesnt go early) and it would have been easier to tag on 50+ in 8 overs or so when youre on 591/6 rather than go out and chase on a 5th day pitch against fresh bowlers with a new ball. It might not come down to that - but if India get ahead every run they score will become double because you'll need overs for an England chase then. We'll see, we could be saying an extra 50 could have come in very handy, or it'll make no difference at all. The odds seem pretty fair atm anyway, I have a sneaky feeling we just might get a draw but wouldnt back it. As the ball got older in Indias 1st innings, things did seem to get a little easier (although its a far more easy track) - thats whats stopping me from having all my green on England anyway, you couldnt trust India the way theyve been batting.

I only seen bits of the Kerry game today but the scoreline was impressive enough, they can be put under pressure - I'm leaning more towards Dublin all the time for some reason. I clocked PP are going 5/6 Dublin HT/FT next weekend, the Dubs tend to start fast so that appeals, they dont seem the most likely team to come from behind either so if theyre down by loads at HT it'll be a struggle for them to be winning the game anyway at 2/5. I have them in shorter than 2/5 personally so its nearly a domino effect for most of the side markets, I think they'll cover the -3pt handicap too but prefer HT/FT, if theyre 2pts down at HT they probably wont be winning by 4+. My online account is restricted but it being a semi final can get €90.50 on, it beats the €1.50 they offered on Kildare every week! At least if they bottle it I'll be able to laugh at them and say "same old Dublin.." Its highly unlikely they'll get a better chance of getting into an All Ireland final in years IMO.

New Number One

2011-08-15T15:41:00.006+01:00

I cant decide whether England being number one in the world now instead of India is a good thing or a bad thing for the cricket markets. On the one hand, every England game is televised and it might bring in more interest now theyre the best in the world - on the other hand, India games tend to bring in a massive amount of money (especially for the draw). The Indian public will probably stay as keen as ever for cricket regardless because that seems to be the culture, and if we get more interest and money with England being number one, well then all the better. I dont think cricket markets are lacking any liquidity anyway - however India have been absolutely pap this tour, hopefully it isnt a sign for the future because keeping them as high profile as possible is great for the markets.

Anyway, skipped updating last night because the golf didnt finish until late. I backed Tiger (because its a major and I am obviously a major sucker), but was able to lay off when he was -3 through the first few holes before he had a complete meltdown - very sad to watch - if I could be any sportsman in the world I'd be him (in the sporting arena that is). So then, after going all green on him I proceeded to back McIlory, only for him to bugger up his wrist on the 3rd. Golf trading is fun isnt it! I ended up winning €7 - I wouldnt have picked the winner anyway, I hadnt even heard of him until last night. Not a clue.

The cricket has been much better, Australia traded at 1.07 Monday afternoon before collapsing to spin - I havent traded the ODIs but Ponting seems to be holding them together well since arriving.

That 5s to get 15 off the last with Cam White there was a great bet IMO, pity he got out the very next ball, but still it was worth it, market felt like it was one 6 away from a flip.

I dont like to use the word "easy" when it comes to Betfair but the Test this week, well it was easy. Back England, feet up, India are shite. I thought about not laying off, but you know regardless of any situation and odds theres never ever a mortgage job, and equally theres no point doing something different and unnatural from whats worked for so long, and sure nothing is ever certain in sport either. Just the attitude from the Indian players would lead you to believe they had given up, the price was extremely static around 1.2 - 1.25 for more than a day so that was my reason for not having red - I could see the lead coming but the market had already priced it in so basically the only way it could have gone was up and caused bother. India started their innings with England 1.2 anyway, which was a great price at the time (although I didnt back it), but it had been 1.2 long before we even got there.

No GAA bets this week, but I'm thinking of backing Dublin for the All Ireland at 15/8 (I cant believe I just said that, I know, I know). The thinking behind it is, I'm pretty confident they'll beat Donegal (and would have them shorter than 2/5 tbh), so then presuming if Kerry beat Mayo, I cant see Dublin being as high as 15/8 to lift the trophy in the final, and they'd be healthy odds on against Mayo too if Mayo did beat Kerry. It would also soften the idea of them actually winning it, it'll be worse than the English soccer team winning the World Cup, but if I won money off it who cares.

07/08/2011

2011-08-07T20:10:00.008+01:00

Well, its been a fantastic week for trading this week. Massive swings in nearly every game, 1.4 matched both sides, 1.14 matched both sides some games, its just been a real trading week with loose opinions and quick positions.

Going back to Monday, England were fierce impressive rolling over India - it didnt help me to be honest, I thought India would at least put up a bit more of a fight and gave away €500ish of green towards the end. Cant really complain, India all out for 150 odd wont happen too often IMO (although theyre in seriously bad shape this tour) and its just one of those things, in hindsight I was probably playing with fire because Eng were dominating the game but The Wall and VVS both got out to cracking deliveries, what can you do.

After that the week has been great, although I've been a bit lucky at times, yesterday I found myself in a possible €160 all red position - decided feck it and let it run, and it turned out OK in the end to finish +€126. Its probably not the greatest attitude to have but its where having a max liability instead of a stop loss comes into its own, it was a shite position, but I support my position and if I lose, I lose - it doesnt really matter because its only one max bet gone. Now, if I was sitting there looking at a €5k red I might be panicking a little and it WOULD be different then! But sure once I'm comfortable with stakes - and losing those stakes more importantly - nothing is the end of the world regardless of what happens so therefore nothing can really bother me, and being calm and in your comfort zone on Betfair is fairly vital you know. It works out OK.

Anyway, Twitter informs me that our friend, Mario Balotelli (I know everyone loves him really), left Wembley today in a gold puffa jacket, knee-length denim shorts with a diamond hem and a glittering-gold suitcase. What a hero. Hes also become a hit in America during the Summer, no doubt they all love him too sure how could you not, he has nearly 10 million views on Youtube now, but I dont think the American comms like him that much..

You can tell this season is already going to be great banter, I cant wait to see how many people he pisses off. However I would not suggest putting any sort of monetary faith in him whatsoever, best keep him on your side while getting people to seethe compared to seething yourself.

And if you thought Balotelli was the biggest wanker ever? Well, you'd be wrong. Ireland currently has the biggest porn request from Google in the world, who would have thought that? For our size compared to other nations, The Irish - a great big bunch of wankers. Manchester is actually the highest city though.. maybe when Liverpool fans call the Mancs wankers they have a point.

Lastly, after a solid two months of Test cricket between Windies v India and Eng v India I have decided its time to get fit again. Started off a new gym program on Friday + a new lean diet to go with it, it'll only last for 28 days to get the six pack going sure I'm only 12 stone now, so if you see me giving you the Roy Keane Seethe Eyes its not because I hate you, its because I want to eat you. Going from watching Test cricket all day and eating Chinese to going to the gym and eating green beans is like going from a photograph to its negative FFS. Anyway I'm not a quitter so I'll follow through with it for another 26 days before undoing it all over a single weekend when its finished. Healthy living, its only a phase, it'll pass.

The worst thing is these gym people who tell you "you'll feel better" thats a whole load of bollocks, waking up early hungry, walking down the stairs sideways because your legs hurt, not being able to sit down or stand back up without pain because your abs hurt does not compare whatsoever with waking up at half 10 hungover, having two paracetamol and a bacon toastie, sticking on the cricket at 10-50 and away we go.. you might die of a heart attack at 50, but you'd die happy, you'd die happy..

England v India

2011-07-31T18:40:00.008+01:00

This draw price is some head-scratcher in the 2nd Test, theres two days left..

Er, we had 417 runs today - Eng are only 374 ahead, in theory India could chase that in a day, in theory obviously because Eng wont be declaring. I suppose the most likely scenario is Eng ahead by 500ish (or close enough to it) by lunch tomorrow and then India have to bat five sessions to win or draw. They'll hardly spend the guts of two days blocking, and if Eng bat for 25 overs at RR5 (its 4.36 atm) tomorrow, that leaves 155 overs - 500/155 = 3.22 which is hardly shut up shop stuff. Its hard to know whats the right or wrong price until Eng finish their innings I suppose. I'd have the draw bigger but at the same time wouldnt fancy India to chase 500 so where do you put them in at. Just on the time scale of things, if they last 155 overs you'd have to think they'd be close enough to the target anyway, at least seeing 417 runs in a day would make you think that anyway. Realistically if India do decide to block, you could see Engs bowling attack crawling all over them, you cant just block for five sessions. Wait until Eng post the score and go from there I suppose, in the end it'll be an Eng win more likely than not, but not without India "looking like winning" at some stage? The draw price is barking anyway, win or lose, funny thing is it'll probably go lower in the morning.

Anyway, I'm glad I have a good book on that because yesterday wasnt enjoyable with Kildare crashing out. 1pt up in added time, in extra time, and lose, FFS. They were 3pts down with less than 10 minutes to go before we went to extra time so I suppose cant complain too much, I thought we had it won in extra time though. Maybe its Dublins year after all? They'll surely find some way to bottle it though, could you picture Dublin winning an All Ireland, it'd be like, erm, Liverpool winning the Premiership. I did well yesterday anyway to limit the damage to under a tenner after having €244 at 1.7 Kildare, got a sense it was coming apart so ducked out, thank god for the Eircom wi-fi in Croker.

The 1st Test feels like ages ago..

That was a tough five days, I'd have liked to have been more aggressive laying the draw but didnt have the bottle at the time, thats all really - that was the play, I knew it at the time too, but just didnt have the bottle. Its difficult (and its the same with this Test too), the odds are short but it just keeps coming and coming at you, draw backers are a relentless bunch. Even this match, surely backing 4.2 from this position cant leave you winning long term, and backing odds on on day one cant be a good idea either, just asking for trouble. But they keep coming at you non stop.

I had a few days off in between the Tests and its amazing how things change, I went for lunch and golf a couple of the days.. during Galway and Goodwood were all going for lunch and golf - that would have never happened a few years ago. Even the in-running edge with Galway being on RTE didnt attract me. Maybe were all just gettin' old. Or gettin' sense!

I didnt see any races live but Frankel was just awesome, what can you say about him.. he just has gears. And lots of them..

24/07/2011

2011-07-24T20:15:00.010+01:00

Its not been the greatest week in terms of enjoying sport but its been OK on Betfair.

The King George yesterday has got to be one of the most unsatisfactory races I've ever seen - between the false/slow early pace, poor Rewilding breaking down, Workforce hanging, St Nic letting the first two get first run (although wouldnt have changed the result), after looking forward to it so much it turned out to be a horrible race.

In terms of the J O'B ride on St Nic, now I'm not saying the result would have been different at all, but for the future - as seen at Chester and Epsom, a bit of hands and heels before pulling out the whip works much better for him. Yesterday coming round the bend Joseph was sat there looking cool and then when he went to say go the first thing he did was give him two cracks (and to be fair he responded) but at Chester and Epsom he was wound up gradually before hitting 5th gear and taking off. IMO he was rode yesterday as if he could go from 1st gear to 5th just by two cracks of the whip and a "lets go," he wont overtake Group 1 horses like that, you have to give him time. Anyway, it wouldnt have changed the result but if he heads to the Arc thats the way I'd like to see him rode - he took off towards the end of the race at Epsom having come under pressure a good bit out, he can make ground hands and heels, get into a rhythm, then whip him and he takes off. If ever there was a KF ride for the Arc its him.

I'm slightly secretly glad he didnt win though because when I was backing him for the Arc, he was 33/1 for the King George too. And I thought at the time (before he ran this season) that he would have all the 1M2F races open to him too, so would skip the KG. It only turned out after him running that you could see he was an out and out 1M4Fer.

And as if my heart wasnt broken enough by that race, Wexford a few hours later were 5pts ahead in the second half, 3pts ahead after one minute of added time and managed to somehow end up losing. I dont even know how, FFS. At least Kildare have got a good draw in the Quarter Finals against Donegal, then we could possibly meet Dublin in the semis, the other semi looks to be Kerry v Cork which should be a cracker, I'm probably a bit bias towards Kildare but if they turn out to be the semis IMO its the four best teams in the country at the moment and it'll be fantastic for the GAA. I'd love to see Tyrone beat Dublin though (presuming Tyrone beat Roscommon).

If the Wexford result wasnt a kick in the balls, this definitely was, handy green - only 20 balls to go for a result and get paid, oh wait look, its raining, void..

The same feckin' thing happened Monday as well! Both times I had CMM insurance but for only half of the green I had on the match odds, I hate the rain. I have no match odds results this week at all - only rain results.

Its been very hard work over on the 1st Eng v India Test too, the draw started day 1 at odds on and here we are after day 4, and its still odds on. Its bounced around a bit, today it looked like it was out with the washing but then came back in and gave me a bit of trouble. ATM my book is like this:

I'm happy to be equal green (because I havent got a feckin' clue whats going to happen tomorrow), but am a little bit disappointed even with that because a few hours earlier I had this:

I want that book back! Ah no, but that last two hours was a mare really I was all over the place. The draw coming back in has caused the main damage - I'm not sure if I'm giving the Eng attack too much respect, even though it'll be a day 5 pitch tomorrow it is Lords after all and a Lords day 5 pitch isnt a normal day 5 pitch. Not sure what will happen tomorrow - I know I dont want to be opposing The Wall and VVS though, will sit out of the market until one of them goes even if it means letting the draw reach 1.3 or something. It should be a good day whatever happens anyway.

I havent given much thought after passing the yearly goal last week either - I think I'll just go along steady and see what happens really, I'll re-assess that stance if things start going pear shaped. So far I havent done anything mad like buy a dancing monkey or invest in Irish banks so I'm not doing too bad.

Yearly Goal Reached

2011-07-17T18:25:00.003+01:00

I use the word 'goal' because probably having 'targets' isnt a great idea in the general scheme of things, but everyone knows you have to reach a certain figure (or average it over a few years) to stay gambling, so its nice to pass the magic €7.5k online so early in the year.

When I started the blog it was March, so I went from March to March as my year, but when I dropped the laptop and needed a new hard drive (never check your emails after Coppers, lesson learned) I lost all the early figures so now go as normal January to December. I'm not sure on the numbers but I recall January and February being losing months (or ones of considerable struggle) in 2010, and this year I was sat on €30.2k at the end of December and then first week in March I had reached the grand total of €30.3k - that works out at winning on average €12.50 per week - er, its a long way off but for some reason I think booking a holiday next January/February is probably not the worst idea. For whatever reason I cant seem to do anything right those months, nor can I explain why.

On the plus side of that winning €50 short of €9k in four months and a week is promising for the future (I always envisioned having to quit gambling if I had children etc, you know yourself) but maintaining those figures would mean I could continue gambling, but obviously thats 10 odd years away so its not really important but anyway.

In the more immediate future - I would like another 'goal' to work towards to keep me focused. Just to keep myself from going mad, getting lazy, I have good discipline in general but its nice to have a "reason" for having good discipline and a bit of structure or rules. For example, I lost €230ish on Roscommon today, Roscommon are hardly a strong GAA team are they! And gambled on the golf all weekend, even though I know I'm bad (lost €12ish after being €175 green) and had €350 on Kildare last night - even though the odds were incredible, at one stage Meath brought it back to level and it was looking dicey (and adding that to my cash bets wasnt really an enjoyable number!), I havent lost €300+ on a Betfair market since January either so would like to keep that for as long as possible and not start doing daft things 'just because I can and it makes no real difference.'

The plan is to not change anything anyway, as always it if aint broke dont fix it, go for dinner tonight (been waiting for the golf to settle to post and I'm bloody starving!) and take a few days off before the Eng v India 1st Test and then decide what to do or where to go for the rest of the year.

By the way, the boxing on the P&L is the same from last week so doesnt count, and its the big day tomorrow with the new PC charges coming.. be interesting to see what effect (if any) it has on the site.

10/07/2011

2011-07-10T10:34:00.008+01:00

I know I'm a day early but the Test match wont finish until around 11 tonight and I'll be nackered, so going to stick all todays action into next week. I wouldnt say that many people are sat there on a Saturday afternoon at four thinking "feck me, cant wait for Monday," Test cricket is hard going.

I have my book squared atm because I literally have no idea whats going to happen tonight.

I think the India price is fair enough at 1.38, I'd have them 1.4 to back though rather than to lay but thats not a major difference. Windies are 81 ahead with 4 wickets left, couple of questions - 1) How many will they get? and 2) Will India chase it? IMO India might shut up shop if Windies set them 170ish with one and a bit sessions left, but thats asking the last 4 wickets to put on nearly 100, which I wouldnt say will happen however Chanderpaul is still there on 73. Get him in the first 5 overs later and its probably GSM India, 1.4 is fair enough - you'd expect India to win, although there maybe a few bumps along the way without an early wicket. If I had a strong opinion I'd have all my green on it but cant call it.

Apart from that its been a quiet enough week, I've been doing the Test since Wednesday so only had Monday and Tuesday really, I had this book on Monday night.. and ended up winning €2.

I never learn. Thats one thing I want to improve on, it suits me to have all my green on the outcome I fancy, but I should be able to see when things are going tits up better and do something about it. I'm strongly against going all green just for the sake of it though (and that 1.75 hit 1.25 after), it should be when the odds suggest going equal rather than just because you have green one side and nothing the other. Getting rid of red remains the main goal anyway sure.

Kildare won yesterday too! So onwards and upwards, hopefully we avoid Cork in the next round, think the draw is tonight I'm not sure. That was the best moment of the week, the worst moment was this email..

Funnily enough Ems signed into my email on Wednesday night and immediately said "What have you done now?" I havent done anything! I've had no account with Stan James since they closed my last one about two years ago, I'm presuming that email means I'm barred from Betpack and not Stan James, SJ own them (or oversee them or something) if I'm not mistaken. Betpack are made up of Bamburys, Hacketts, John Mulhollands, Terry Rogers, Pat Toolans, Track Bookmakers and Tullys so effectively I'm barred from all of them, great! And the last time I had a bet of three figures with them (€200)? March. The account was limited after mind, but still I havent done anything of major seriousness.

I love the way they say "due to betting patterns on this account the decision has been made to close it," using the words "batting patterns" is like something you see on Sky Sports News when crooked jockeys are being investigated.

The disappointment of that email has been made up by this email from my friend..

Ah man I was doing some temporary office work in down syndrome ireland in bluebell there. I sent an email after to the manager to thank them for the chance to work there.

Did the worst typo ever signing off and instead of 'kind regards' I typed 'kind retards' by mistake and sent it. Dam spell checker didn't stop it either!
Never got a response back to the email, they must have thought I was completely taking the piss!!

An update on my horse SeeSea too - after her first workout its been decided that her legs arent strong enough to stand up to the training of a racehorse so she wont have a future and has been packed off to stud. Thank god we leased her, given it was her first workout we dont even lose a months training fees which is great, and now were back to looking at unraced and unnamed bumper horses for the National Hunt season. I almost feel a bit sorry already for the poor horse were going to pick, given our luck and track record the poor bugger will almost definitely end up in a can. Leasing is a massive advantage though, I mean if you bought a horse and in her first canter back something went wrong you'd be gutted, however with leasing you just move on pretty quickly, sounds harsh but its the way it goes really. We deserve a winner after all weve been through! So far weve had two horses, one race (2nd), one dead and one retired. As I said, god help the next one.

Moving On

2011-07-03T19:04:00.010+01:00

Well the dust seems to have settled now on the new PC changes, and while there are some noises coming from people about moving, the general thing seems to be nothing has changed.

I think you have to be very self centered when things like this happen - obviously taking 60% of someones winnings (without them cheating) is immoral, BUT if it doesnt effect you, well then theres not much to get hyped up about. Certainly from my point of view (and I'm sure many others) it makes no real sense to up sticks from Betfair and head to Betdaq where liquidity is low and its now highly possible that whatever market is there could be a shark tank.

I took two screen shots at the same time Saturday on the cricket, I know everyone knows this already, but theres not much competition is there:

It doesnt kick in until the 18th, so we'll only see what really happens after that I suppose, if anything.

Interestingly enough Betfair released their profits for the year this week too, and in the comments read: "But it said revenues, which increased 15.4 per cent to £393.3million, 'could have been stronger' after they were hit by declining bets on horse racing and poker and 'outages' due to technical problems on its websites." I wrote here towards the end of last year, at the time I'd had enough, was giving up the horses in a serious way and settling for a less than part-time interest, that my generation (the next generation) wont have the same interest in horse racing as the last one, and that it will only continue to go down. I didnt think it'd start happening now, the new breed of gamblers are being brought up on football, tennis, cricket, sports like that - you have less options in the market (so its easier to grasp) and less smoke and mirrors.

On another note, do you think Betfair might apply the 60% PC to the poker site? Will they fuck. The place would be empty in a matter of hours, imagine Pokerstars doing that - it'd never happen. Monopolies are no craic.

Anyway, delighted with the boxing going the distance last night, I said Monday I was happy enough taking 5/2 and then WH went 7/2, it was only 3/1 on Betfair. I see Sky Sports News are talking about a rematch, oh dear. ALTHOUGH, if you were Wladimir Klitschko and someone offered you a whole heap of cash to beat a guy youve beaten already, why wouldnt you take it? He won easily. As for toegate, erm, when I first heard him open his mouth and say it I thought "Oh no, dont say that" it sounds so bad and makes him look terrible - even if its true. You cant act like Billy Big Bollocks before a fight and then say "oh my baby toe" after youve been beaten 11-1. TOETAL FAILURE.

Small bit gutted this week with the rain in the Test match. Fancied India strongly and had worked myself into a good position:

Then the heavens opened and we lost time on all four days after (only got 25 overs on day 2), Windies finished 7 down at the end, and would have gone close themselves if it wasnt for Chanderpauls 12 off 87 balls, a SR of 13.79 (I wanted to die watching him bat), I finished with this:

Feckin' rain. Its hurricane season out there ATM so I wouldnt be overly keen being heavy against the draw for the last Test, although the carrot dangles in front of your eyes because Windies dont hang around for long batting, theyve very rarely made it past 80 overs this summer. I still end up losing on cricket this week because I've had a mare on England v Sri Lanka, lost €70 1st ODI and €300 2nd ODI - a few overs away from a flip flop with Morgan there and sure he went and it was 1.1 and goodnight.

On GAA matters, Kerry hit 1.05 (I was on Cork, oh dear) today before bouncing back to odds against - it worked out OK in the end. Hope to God Kildare dont get Cork in the qualifiers, thats if we beat Laois in Portlaoise on Saturday though, which isnt a given. Nothing really sticks out next weekend, London (11/10) v Waterford (5/4) could be of interest, I think thats maybe a slight overreaction to London winning the last game, however Waterford are no great shakes and having to travel to London means its probably beat left alone. I thought Meath (4/7) might be worth an interest to beat Galway (Galway were woeful against Mayo) but historically those games are close enough so in-running is probably the way forward in life there.

New Betfair Premium Charge

2011-06-28T13:33:00.003+01:00

Oh dear, oh dear, a possible high of 60% tax on winnings?

This is on the site:

From 18th July 2011 Betfair will be making some changes to the Premium Charge. The current Premium Charge mechanism will remain in place but higher rates may now apply to a small number of customers (less than 0.1% of annual active customers).

Full details of the changes can now be found on the Betfair Charges page under the About Us section of the website. However, the changes can be summarised as follows:

• Customers will only be subject to Premium Charges at higher rates if they satisfy all of the following conditions:

o Lifetime net profits* exceed £250,000
o Lifetime commission generated less than 40% of lifetime gross profits
o Bet in more than 1,000 markets

• Customers that satisfy all of the above conditions will be asked to pay Premium Charges at rates between 40% and 60% on all future exchange activity.

All customers that will be affected by these changes have already been contacted.

And many people have got this too:

The Premium Charge rate applied to each customer that satisfies these conditions is dependent on their lifetime commission generated to gross profits ratio. The exact rate will be determined by the following table:

Lifetime commission generated
to gross profits ratio Applicable Premium Charge rate
< 5% 60%
5% - 10% 50%
> 10% 40%

-----

Because of my age, I've not reached €250k from Betfair yet - although one day I hope to, that'll probably be the same day I'll have to leave. I'm also sure (being realistic) that not many will have won €250k net profit, they do point out its less than 0.1% of annual users.

The main issues will be it is unbelievably bad PR, and the biggest issue is how will liquidity be effected because obviously the big players will be effected (the 100k lumps we love to see).

I'm not really sure how it will turn out myself. We shall see.

(Hello Betdaq, if youre reading this, can you please get off your fucking arse and create some competition, thanks!)

WE WOZ ROBBED

2011-06-27T16:21:00.011+01:00

Was this really a free?

Fuck it anyway. I suppose theres no point me crowing and complaining about it because I'm obviously bias towards Kildare, everyone can see for themselves.

Lovely day in Croker yesterday, sun was shining, proper Championship football, two good sides, fair game.. and then the Ref has to go and do something like that. I felt awful sorry for the players because to be six points down at half time and comeback to level was an amazing performance, I know were a second half team but you have to think to yourself about winning 'are Kildare 7 points better than Dublin over 35 minutes of football' the answer is no more times than not, so to end up level with a minute to go - fantastic stuff. Unfortunately got a proper slap in the face from the Ref but my initial reaction was "what do you expect against Dublin?"

Draw or lose was irrelevant in gambling terms but gutted all the same - no one likes to lose like that. But anyway, another trip to Portlaoise on July 9th, its a nice little spot for an afternoon and weve been there already this year. As seen with Louth last year though when you get fecked over by refs its harder to bounce back and win in the Qualifiers than when you just lose from not being good enough, at least you can accept that.

I had plenty of bets over the weekend, London PPs +€420, Westmeath Betfair -€150, Mayo Betfair +€400 and Kildare Betfair -€270. I finish +€400 so that feels good, I'd swap that for a Kildare draw though. London winning was great because I had talked a few people into backing that. I had wanted to back Mayo with Ladbrokes..

However 80c is far too rich for me. I'd be sweating like Wayne Rooney in a bingo hall with a liability like that.

I ended up with an alright win on the Test match in the end, but not the one I wanted. The weather forecast improved, so the draw moved from 1.6 to 2.2 overnight, which left me with this:

And I thought I was collecting that. But England were dismal, very disappointing, and I finished tail firmly between legs with this:

That feels like years ago, Sri Lanka walloped them at T20 on Saturday, the ODIs should be fairly good and even - hopefully good for the market bouncing around.

Haye v Klitschko is on Saturday night which I'm looking forward to. No strong opinion on the winner, I like Haye because hes good banter but if someone was giving me €500 to pick the winner I'd pick Klitschko. The fight to go the distance is around 5/2, maybe if Haye takes the same approach as he did against Valuev that could look OK, probably the best time for Haye to win is rounds 1-6 and then the opposite for Klitschko 7-12 will be his time. Both have suspect chins but I'm not sure that it'll turn into an all out brawl, I think it'll be a bit cagey.

The buildup will be fantastic anyway, "Why dont you like Klitschko?" "Because hes clearly a dickhead" HA, class, Klitschko looks really wound up towards the end too.

(EDIT 8-12PM).. Just clocked William Hill have gone 7/2 Haye v Klitschko to go the distance. Big price if you can get it IMO. Even if you dont fancy it can lay at sub 3/1 on Betfair.

19/06/2011

2011-06-19T18:12:00.004+01:00

Very quiet week this week.

Royal Ascot was a bit of a blow out from watching the first race, Betfair suspended about half a furlong from the line on BBC - credit to them for suspending so early however as we all know they dont do it on 'normal' days on ATR. Then obviously Ascot being an ATR track itself I was well behind there too, and you know youre fucked when betting off ATR is your best option, or the 'least worst' option anyway. I gave up after Tuesday €14 ahead and thought I might as well get out before damage is done.

I had an awkward time on the India v Windies games too, India collapsed in a heap on Monday, and Windies managed to chase 10+ an over for a fair while on Thursday. I think both times India were sub 1.2.

And then I've been doing the 3rd Test match since then, Sri Lanka are 90/2 in their second innings still 103 behind. Apparently theres bad weather tomorrow but I cant control that really, just be aware of it. I have minor red on the draw and €600ish green on England - it could bounce around tomorrow, either that or its a straight 1.01 train with rain, but I dont trust the Lankans so I'm happy enough to have whatever green I have all on England and if the weather says its a draw so be it.

No bet on the golf with Tiger missing (its not the same without him for me), but I really hope Rory wins, especially after what happened at The Masters and how he handled himself after it.

In other news, Wimbledon starts tomorrow..

Making Life Easier

2011-06-13T13:27:00.003+01:00

Its not often Betfair gets a bit of praise but the new market navigation update is fantastic, feels 100 times smoother than the last one and makes it easier to move around the site, which is the way everything should be - easy!

Not that its important but it looks far cooler than the last one too.

A Betfair update that is actually an improvement, has this ever happened before..!? Amazing scenes.

12/06/2011

2011-06-12T19:17:00.007+01:00

An odd week this week, Monday and Tuesday didnt go well but the rest of week was very good. I managed to royally feck up my book on the 2nd Test to "only" win €25 - having been just short of €900 green on the actual outcome on Sunday evening. I went for the draw lay after 8 wickets fell in one session, it did bounce to 1.35ish after I laid 1.2, but 9 balls later it was back to 1.2 and I thought that was pretty poor so let it run, unwisely in hindsight but at the time I was happy enough so no complaints.

After much, and I stress much, faffing about during the last session I finished like this:

Naturally a small bit disappointed not to win having been in a €800 awe-green position (without actually clicking to go green, Test cricket moving slowly meant I had oceans of time to do it if I wanted to). But sure the long and short of it is, I make decisions and rightly or wrongly I take responsibility for those decisions and back them, theres not much else to it really. Every bet I make, I make it because at the time I was happy so criticisms are only with hindsight, I'm experienced enough at this stage not to be a total gobshite, and to cop it when I've been one - but even if I make a mistake I'd much rather take the responsibility for it and accept it rather than go around blaming anyone and everyone in the world, IMO its a far more mentally strong position. Obviously I'm wrong plenty of times but its no ones fault bar my own, life goes on and the world doesnt end.

You know once I'm happy, who cares. Its the same with everyone else, once your happy with what youve done who gives a feck if anyone disagrees - thats why Betfair was invented in the first place. Anyway, the more people who disagree with you, the bigger the price you get (in theory).

Say over the year you get 20 days of advice, nice round number, so that leaves you with 345 days on your own. Of course you can put into practice the advice given - but its up to the individual with no one to hold your hand, so it all comes down to being happy yourself with what youre doing, people will obviously comment on your bets but picture during a 5F race when you have less than a second to decide Back/Lay, good odds or bad odds, that just has to come naturally 99% of the time to the person. And when youre even learning that, you have learn yourself, go through everything yourself.

I still cant come up with a sane (if that the right word to use) reason why people argue over what is "value." Everyone is quite obviously going to be different.

Anyway, a strong enough finish to the week with India trading odds against twice, market hated them 2nd ODI for some reason, Windies were matched at sub 1.2 3rd ODI but rightly so with India 6 down for 90ish, they ended up winning though so that was a great momentum trade match, next partnership put on 90 runs so the market was always edging out as we went along.

The Test match probably didnt work in my favour putting all my green on the outcome I favour but then it works for me so many other times. There are times when I think I should go equal but I think the main thing is always preservation of capital and not losing, once I'm in a position of not losing thats the main thing, no damage done. The funny thing is I go equal red faster than I go equal green..!

Lastly, very sad to hear about Brian Lenihan passing away on Friday. Normally the news headlines just wash over my head but he was my favourite politician and the only man in The Dáil I genuinely liked. I suppose he'll be remembered for being Minster for Finance during the worst recession Ireland has ever had but I always thought he spoke sense and I could always understand where he was coming from when he was trying (I say trying because normally everyone was heckling him) to explain things. I always had great time for him anyway and he made me more interested in politics (before realising its a mugs game and you cant win no matter what you say to people), and hes contributed €200 to the challenge when I backed him to get his seat back this year too. Cancer is a horrible thing, RIP.

Change Is Good

2011-06-05T18:12:00.007+01:00

No surprises to see Mickael Barzalona get a bit of stick for his Derby celebrations, looking at them crossing the line I thought it was an amazing sight - something different and interesting - Usain Bolt like almost. Horse racing is a bit of an old mans game, anything thats different gets knocked, and you could argue its all about the horse and nothing else - but then I would argue why are bookmakers moving away from horse racing as their flagship number one earner? Why are attendances down without having concerts after racing? Why do you even need concerts after racing if its just about the horse? We need more Mickael Barzalonas and people like this, more amazing scenes please. Ask any normal person to name a jockey and Frankie Dettori will be odds on for your answer, not because hes the best jockey, but because he jumps off the horse and hes different, people remember different.

Anyway as for the race, no complaints with Recital. He had Pour Moi and Carlton House in or around him for a good bit of the race and both finished ahead so cant really complain. Obviously it was a massive blow not to have Fallon, that sort of thing would ONLY happen Fallon! Newspapers must love him. If you were to run the race again, I'd have him in the middle rather than towards the back, however the plan was to hold him up anyway thats just hindsight. The winner won well although I believe it was 3secs or something (only what someone has said to me, didnt check myself) slower than last years so it remains to be seen how good the form is. Delighted St Nic got up on Friday though, woooosh, hes still getting a bit of stick but I'm of the opinion that if he was trained by someone else he wouldnt get half the stick he does, I'm very happy anyway because people keep giving us odds against - although I suppose he has to bump into So You Think or Workforce soon. Really nice to see him put the head down and get the job done though, apparently hes a dog - hes a montjeu, hes relatively normal.

In hindsight, and even at the time, the Guineas over a mile on fast ground, first run of the season was never going to be his day. Obviously being favourite and losing seems to be where the "bad" reputation has come from, fair enough he was terrible at The Curragh first time this season but you can always forgive an APOB first time out. I think hes just going to be one of these horses now that no matter what he does he wont get much credit for it, he certainly deserves to be near top of the market in all the top 1M4F races this season anyway.

Anyway, my beloved Kildare won today, kicked 18 wides and still managed to win by 6 points - although I accept Meaths "goal" wasnt a square ball (but unless you use video technology these things will always happen) and the red card was harsh.. but we still controlled midfield and if the forwards didnt miss so much it would have been far more impressive. Dublin beat Laois too, so we meet them in the semis, Dubs are 1/2 to win Leinster so I'm assuming they'll be around that price to beat Kildare so, or under it even. Possibly a bit early in the season to be meeting, the more games Kildare play the better they get - I wouldnt be backing us - 18 wides with no wind or rain is an awful stat and it takes a lot to beat Dublin in Croker this early in the season. Wait until the semi final of the All Ireland, thats when we'll 'av 'em.

I have all my money on the draw going into day 4 of the 2nd Test tomorrow - theres a first time for everything..! My tactics at the start - if Sri Lanka batted back Eng and if Eng batted back the draw at around 3.3, then when Eng were 20/3 I was thinking what sort of a feckin' eejit am I, although as a long term play it would have worked out very well, it wasnt meant to work like that though, SL 200/0 wasnt factored into my thinking - I had dumped the position during the Eng innings anyway. By the time Lanka came out to bat Eng were 1.5 having recovered from 20/3 to get 480ish, 1.5 was a solid enough lay if you could trust SL after Cardiff, I waited a bit, they were near 40/0 and laid Eng at 1.58ish and just momentum traded the price all the way out, laying more so than backing. Tomorrow will be day 4 and were still in the 1st innings so unless one side collapse its hard to see a result, the pitch is pretty flat atm anyway, Eng need Anderson back badly, struggling to see how SL can blow Eng away with the ball in a hurry too - its just one of those things if it happens I'll hold my hands up and say well done, dont mind taking it on (cue Eng all out for 100 Tuesday).

Can we have a Test match every week please?

Amazing Scenes!

2011-05-30T17:40:00.012+01:00

You'd have to feel a little (I said a little) bit sorry for draw backers. Sri Lanka bowled out for 82, after getting 400 first knock and with all the rain, is just incredible.

I bottled it a bit trading after laying 1.03, when I laid 1.03 I was actually hoping to have the chance to green at 1.1 or so, not have Eng winning! Although when it started to go I should have held longer.

It begs the age old question, is it really 'worth it' backing 1.01 or laying 1000 (Eng got matched at 1000 too). Just leaving aside the actual thinking of odds for a moment, even if you make it a 1/1,000 chance - is it still 'worth it' backing 1/100? I mean, if you have the €1,000 why do you need the tenner?

Obviously this is easy said after the event, but any number of 1.01s have been turned over at the French Open this week - Sport Is Made For Betting has most of the screen shots and 1/100 was turned over in GAA yesterday.

The only argument for it is the "well would you back 1/100 day becomes night?" But again just leaving that aside, if you have the €5k do you need the €50? Personally I wouldnt go around laying every 1.01 but backing it is insane IMO.

When I was down in the IFSC trading room, a figure of four 1.01s out of every 100 on horse racing were turned over, that was by someone who has worked in Betfair - the main problem was getting matched - as every time a market was set up (or opened) by Betfair bets would be fired in by bots in seconds to be first in the queue, so those stats never applied to the average person sitting there with a laptop.

The worst thing about lumping on short odds (and not being a millionaire) is it only takes one bad day at the office, and you never know when its coming..

29/05/2011

2011-05-29T19:48:00.009+01:00

Quiet enough week on the gambling front in terms of volume, for no real reason other than I havent had a really strong opinion on anything. I skipped the IPL final to head into town for the Champions League yesterday, that worked out great, didnt it. Ah no, full credit to Barca, the best team won and no complaints - it was nice to see a few of the United players say vaguely the same thing on Twitter too, no point lying and sure there comes a time in life when you just have to hold your hands up and say too good. Barca were indeed too good.

Easy know where I get from laid back personality from anyway - my Dad rang me straight after the Rooney goal "What ya think?" Were gettin' feckin' hammered I'd take 1-1 now. "Ah we'll win, I wasnt worried when they scored knew we'd comeback." Wasnt feckin' worried? And I was the one drinking.

I was hoping Rooney wouldnt score, so then I could say that this has been the best thing hes done all week:

Banter! She has since put her tweets on private. That'll teach her.

Very boring few days at Cardiff for the 1st Test - probably lucky in the sense that we lost 42 overs before play had even begun so got a feel that it was going to be one of those things, but yeah its just been no craic watching. I did have a green position of €200ish but buggered it away laying the draw at 1.35 after day 2, then woke up to rain day 3 and sure that was that back to square one. Mistake laying overnight really, I cant control the weather though. On what I've seen so far, the Sri Lanka attack wont bowl out Eng twice, Jimmy Anderson injured is a massive blow though.. It'll be interesting to see if they bother declaring tomorrow - personally I'd bat all day and run the SL bowlers into the ground, next game comes up quick on Friday.

The strongest opinion (and position) I've had this week was on the IPL, although that was gubbed at 1.1, CSK managed to get 53 off the last three, head in hands. Not as bad as Mayo drawing with London today - London havent won a GAA Championship game since 1977 (I believe, radio said it), and with a draw they turned over a 1/100 SP! Has that ever happened before on GAA, seriously? I cant remember one. Dublin and Cork have certainly lost from 1.01 in running but a 1.01/1.02 SP?

We went to see Hangover on Friday night, so unfortunately couldnt attend Wales v Northern Ireland at the Aviva, maybe everyone went to see Hangover 2 - because the full attendance? 529. Seriously, 529. You'd get more people in Coppers on a Monday never mind a Friday.

I had a fairly big accumulator bet settle on Friday too with Sachin finishing top Mumbai batsman, theres only one SJ shop in Dublin/Kildare and I wanted €500 on him but they would only give me €100, I had that on and then put the other €400 on through trebles and accumulators - possibly not the best way to approach things but through some miracle everything managed to win so I've decided to invest in a horse. It'll be my 3rd time involved in a horse, the last one had to be put down which was a bit sad so decided to lease one for two years this time around, leasing is grand and handy really theres no outlay just pay the training fees every month, I think theres 14 or so of us. Her name is Seesea and Henry De Bromhead is the trainer, last run was 5th in a listed bumper Navan so she'll be plenty of fun for two years and sure she might even win.

I'm 23 on Saturday so that'll bring me up to 25 and sure be near retirement age at that stage (not really!), as I said the last one I owned had to be put down early in his career (after finishing a nice 2nd in a bumper too) so the leasing seems a great option and hopefully I can have more luck with this one. Its all relative really, you have to have a hobby or something to do in life and some people spend their money on cars, some on holidays, some spend their whole life drinking and smoking, some spend all their money on children, whatever. Being a gambler naturally I want to spend my money on horses because thats what I get enjoyment out of, I'd never own a horse in England though with the prizemoney - although with syndicates its more the banter side of things thats the main thing really. Shame the TV is so far behind the on course boys for in-running these days but c'est la vie.

Hopefully Recital can win the Derby and give me a good present on Saturday!

23/05/2011

2011-05-23T11:10:00.005+01:00

Well, a waste of a week with my Broadband going down on Wednesday night, needed to have a new box sent out so only arrived today, why do these things always happen to me over the weekend? I got 3+ years out of the old router so I suppose thats good going, and the new one was free anyway.

Gutted to miss the 2nd Test Windies v Pak, draw hit the 1.7s on day 1 - although I did think the pitch would be a bit flat - still missing out on a relatively very easy play compared with other avenues on Betfair, draw is 6 with two days left.

Anyway nothing I can do about that, with no internet we embraced the outside world, went to The Curragh on Saturday and then to Portlaoise for the Kildare game yesterday, won very handy and play Meath now in the Quarters of Leinster, my good friend Tomas is from Meath so obviously beating them is of VITAL importance! Then all things being equal we play Dublin in the Semis, it was a double header yesterday so caught the second half of Laois v Longford - Dublin should hammer Laois really. Kildare went the whole second half without even conceding a point until 3 minutes into stoppage time, I think we'll beat Meath and then not sure about Dublin it might be too soon, I'd say if it was the semi of the All Ireland they'd probably bottle it but semi of Leinster isnt as important. Last two seasons Kildare have lost the first game of the Championship so winning is improvement regardless, I actually think the back-door style of playing every weekend helps us so wont be overly bothered to lose in Leinster. Beating Dublin would be great though..!

Happy Times

2011-05-15T20:57:00.006+01:00

I love test cricket..

Long time readers will know its one of my favourite (probably number one favourite) on the list of things to do - lay the draw low on day 1 of a test match. It should never be near evens IMO, although there are exceptions, in Sri Lanka because of mad weather (I rarely trade there if ever) and India because the better option is probably to wait until day 3. I do have reservations for the rest of this series though, if anyone recalls Windies won a test early on against England, then produced absolute roads for the rest and it ended up staying 1-0, theres basically no money matched on the next test but already theres €1k+ waiting to be matched at 2.6.

Thats the first time on the blog I've been +€1k both sides - normally would have a strong opinion and have all green on one side but too hard to call with these two. An up and down test if ever there was one, the draw starting so short helped a lot, and then I just went with the idea of supporting whichever was outsider at the time while bowling for the main tactic, I did miss Friday though when Pak went from high 1.3s to 2.5 as I was in the cinema holding hands, watching Water For Elephants (alright but not a must see) which brings me nicely to my next piece of advice:

Yes. Very important. Write that down.

Saturday is normally the night for holding hands however the Eurovision was on, you know, the night we all turn into professional Eurovision punters? Thats the one. I actually pre-listened to all the songs, not because of gambling research or anything just because obviously I have no life, I managed to win 50 quid though! Bottled it a bit with a UK top5 lay, was medium red, but it clashed with Windies v Pak so just clicked level - at that stage I was -€60ish Windies and +1.5k Pak (only time I really supported the batting team) and a ball hit the stumps but the bails didnt come off (miracle!), if a wicket went at that stage my book wasnt even half of what it ended up so choose to manage that. I regret going even now but c'est la vie.

Having seen The Dante still of the opinion Recital will be my horse for The Derby, I struggle to see Seville turning around the form with Carlton House - Seville was seemingly going well the whole way around, had prime position, had the rail, and Carlton House came and went past him fairly handy, impressive. Will a faster pace change things? Maybe, its hard to see it though he won well. Pour Mois form was franked today in France too although I didnt see the race, it seems like it'll be between the three of them and they'll head the market, I'm happy enough to back Recital - I think far too much has been made out of his hanging and that should make him a bigger price than a leading trial winner from a top stable would normally be on the day, Carlton House deserves to be favourite but sure 7/4 three weeks away doesnt appeal as a starting point, but anyway its my birthday that day and I dont want to be walking around all depressed over a horse losing so I'll try not to get too involved..!

Soccer shows up on the P&L this week too with the league finishing, at the start of the season I had €333 on United at 3.35, then after a few hours thought "hold on, I dont bet on football why am I doing this" laid it back at 3.3, then they won. Although if I'd have left it, I'm full sure they'd have lost. They havent been fantastic this season and win really because Chelsea and Arsenal have been worse rather than United being outstandingly amazing. During the El Clasicos this season I had to sit through all the "anti-football" shite posted on Facebook status' while oppositely there was praise for Mourinho on Twitter - thinking about it, IMO the only way United can beat Barca CL final is anti-football.

El Clasico this season is the perfect example, Madrid try to play them like-for-like and get stuffed 5-0, then defend for 90mins and draw 1-1, defend for another 90mins and win in ET to lift the Spanish Cup. Then things were going grand in the CL Semi before the red card and sure that was that. Although you have to put up with all the "anti-football" nonsense at the time, you know the way Liverpool fans say "weve won it 5 times" and United fans say "weve won it 19 times" I've never heard any of them say "weve won it 5 times, but do you remember the time we played poorly and didnt deserve to win?" No, definitely not, no one says that.. the way the game is played will be forgotten in a week, the name on the trophy is always there. IMO United get hammered if they try to outplay Barca, while stopping them playing and trying to score on the break (a la Real Madrid) might not look good but its proven to be the best option, or the 'least worst' option when facing Barca anyway. Its probably not the United way of playing, but the last final Barca won 2-0 so that didnt work either..

08/05/2011

2011-05-08T18:31:00.005+01:00

Well, very quiet week online what with Punchestown being on. Obviously over-joyed to see St Nic back to winning ways at Chester too, completely delighted, fair enough Harris Tweed is no world beater but if he lost you'd be writing him off for the future (if you hadnt already after The Curragh run), just love that turn of foot though, woosh! Winning at Chester is still a million miles away from winning the Arc, however all things being equal and well if he turns up on the day he'll be nowhere near 33/1 and I'll be in a good position, I cant control him winning/losing just put myself in the good position with figures, fingers crossed he stays sound now and has a clear run at the year. In hindsight the ground at The Curragh was obviously horrendous and it being first run of the season found him out, that turn of foot will likely be a big advantage the way they race in France, long way away but sure I can plan.

I remember writing here I wasnt really and truly expecting him to win the 2000G, although ended up backing him (love is blind) but not for much, so IMO anyway, the only run hes had that has been disappointing has been The Curragh and hes pretty much put that behind him now, so plenty to look forward to and hopefully this time around I get a run for big odds, couldnt go through another Derby episode anyway! Speaking of the Derby, I was in Leopardstown today to see Recital, I recorded it and watched it back when home - completely disagree with Matt Chapman on that he has "no chance." Alright he hung like a gate into the rail but only after he went past fairly handily and put 3L between him and the rest, then acted like a right monkey. Plenty of positives in the sense that he won easily and KF got some practice on him, negatives are obviously the camber at Epsom with his hanging but I think he'll benefit greatly from not being in front so soon.. I wouldnt be rushing to back 6/1 though, but until we see the Dante I dont think its fair to give him too much stick - it could be far worse, he looked a monkey when hanging but at least he went past them, won the race, and then hung.. it'd be worse if he didnt want to go past.

I havent done many IPL games this week but continue to not be as fluent as the first two weeks anyway, many of the weekend games had 1.0x one side by half way and I have a bit of a family issue going on at the moment, although nothing in this house (thankfully!) and no one is dying (thankfully!), just the phone rang during a game yesterday and I ended up talking for 40 odd minutes, that type of thing. Not complaining at all, but its the type of thing where you lose a day or you lose a game you know. Its by far the biggest advantage of gambling and "being your own boss" (for want of a better way of wording it) that you can drop everything and go help or do something else whenever you want to. I dont like leaving games/events mid-way through them though or having to share the room while the market is fast moving, I read some things about gambling/trading being lonely, but I'm the opposite - I like to be left on my own, then re-engage with the world when its finished. Twitter is a great help during games though, when The Ashes was on and I was up all hours, every single one of my friends were asleep but Twitter was buzzing with everyone interested.. maybe its not "real" interaction but it serves its purpose.

Also, away from gambling, and I hate to depress everyone (reading it will depress you), but IMO the Morgan Kelly article this week is an essential read for every Irish person. Whether you agree/disagree with him, the man has a serious track record of being right and is held in high esteem by more people than not. The picture he paints is no craic, minus craic, but I think its good to be aware of these things when people like him say them, like a tipster in profit, you listen to what he says, might not follow but you listen and take on board anyway. On another point, The Queen is coming to Ireland soon and we have a few gobshites who dont want her to visit, obviously still living in the past - whatever, I'd imagine more people in Ireland would hold more hatred of the UK than of the USA, well whats that old saying, you do find out who your friends really are when things goes tits up..

The IMF, which believes that lenders should pay for their stupidity before it has to reach into its pocket, presented the Irish with a plan to haircut €30 billion of unguaranteed bonds by two-thirds on average. Lenihan was overjoyed, according to a source who was there, telling the IMF team: “You are Ireland’s salvation.”

The deal was torpedoed from an unexpected direction. At a conference call with the G7 finance ministers, the haircut was vetoed by US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner who, as his payment of $13 billion from government-owned AIG to Goldman Sachs showed, believes that bankers take priority over taxpayers. The only one to speak up for the Irish was UK chancellor George Osborne, but Geithner, as always, got his way. An instructive, if painful, lesson in the extent of US soft power, and in who our friends really are.

I'm sure the same people who have a problem with The Queen coming will be going on holidays to America, cause America is great isnt it? No, not great at helping us avoid state bankruptcy, anyway.

(EDIT 09/05/2011. A few emails and a bit of Youtube research informs me the same people who are protesting against The Queen are protesting against Obama, too. My next three words after this paragraph were "anyway fuck it" because sure each to their own. I've opened pandoras box havent I!)

Anyway fuck it, we surely have at least two years left of going on the piss and having the craic before it all falls apart, sure "it'll be grand." By 2014, Ireland will owe a quarter of a trillion, my calculator doesnt even go up that far FFS.

In other news, Manchester United have now all but won the league and will overtake Liverpool for league titles. Liverpool are currently 16/1 to win a trophy next season, for those of you reading who dont fully understand betting - if you put on €10 at 16/1, you will lose €10.

01/05/2011

2011-05-01T17:39:00.006+01:00

ITV decided to show touring cars again today instead of the IPL games so off to the golf course I went with the sun shining. Only when we got there noticed just how bad the wind was, and after an 8 (yes, eight) at the 1st I was stood there thinking "I wonder can you bet in-running on touring cars.." Stood on the 4th tee I managed to knock it straight over the 2nd green (dont ask) but somehow ended up on the 1st fairway with a perfect Tiger-esque view through trees straight to the green. Managed to finish +7, which is my worst round ever, the wind was ridiculous though (thats my excuse and I'm sticking to it!).

Anyway, much like the wind on the golf course - really struggling with the IPL pitches this week, theyve slowed down immensely and I'm finding it difficult to trade. Tuesday was the only ray of light +€250 which was won 7 down with 3 balls to go, I was in Fairyhouse on Monday and picked up €30ish there, so to be +€300 Tuesday evening with the whole week to go, kind of disappointed to "only" finish +€138 - but its better than losing, definitely.

I lost €70 on a match which looked "fixed" although it wasnt - horrible to think like that but some things being played out in front of you just leads to it. I tend to be of the opinion people screaming "fix" are sore losers, but obviously there are events which are indeed "fixed," maybe 1 out of 1,000 or whatever I dont know. I had backed the winning team, thought they werent trying (not a shot played in anger), switched, then they ended up eventually winning - so technically I was "right" in the first place but ended up losing money due to how they played it, what can you do though. And I lost €40 and €30 laying low odds - which seemed a good idea at the time but now I'm sat here thinking "Oh FFS why did you lay 1.08 for €500 why not €200 or something."

Happy enough in the main, its just with the pitches slowing down it tends to lead to lower odds for the defending side - which really doesnt work out for me, just a personal thing, obviously given the choice I always love to start the second innings with both teams around evens or within 20 ticks. 1.3s to defend a biggish score is never going to work for me because I'm never backing it (especially in IPL) and then will probably end up laying low odds after a wicket (like this week) and losing. I suppose thats one of the flaws of only betting second innings, but I think the past couple of days its just trying to get adjusted to the pitches and a rate thats acceptable to chase. And obviously the collapses, both innings, dont help.

Anyway, great week for horse racing with Nina winning the National over here, that got plenty of coverage, and how good was Frankel yesterday, wooosh! I kind of agree with Jim McGrath though, that style of running will hardly help him in the long run, basically he surely cant hare off like that if he runs in the Derby (although its looking unlikely, out to 16s on Betfair for Epsom as I type).. hes a very impressive horse and I dont want to say anything bad about him at all, I suppose theres no real negative about him if hes not going for the Derby, he can seemingly go as fast as he wants over a mile. And delighted to see Together finish 2nd today, I was raving about her last season and she made me look a mug many, many, many times but she turned out to be the best filly for the Guineas - which is what I was saying in the first place, sure whats running six times in between and not winning between friends anyway..!

24/04/2011

2011-04-24T20:38:00.006+01:00

Pretty low-key week on the gambling front, Mondays game was rain affected and Tuesdays was completely rained off, Wednesday the first game was 1.06 SP so I got off to a slowish start with little opportunities and had this horrible feeling of "wanting to win," its hard to explain, obviously I want to win all the time - but not in the sense of going looking for something as opposed to being relaxed, having patience and letting things come naturally. Its the mindset really, I had a good WC and a good start to the IPL, probably a hungry greedy feeling is the best way of explaining it?

The last losing week was the 23rd of January (although there have been one or two level weeks), I was probably just itchy to keep winning - I could just feel it you know wanting to bet bigger or something. Sure enough it was a struggle to be like 'normal' and had a relatively small losing week -€90, I made an effort to curb the "bet and win" feeling and become more relaxed Friday and the weekend but just didnt have the touch. Its so easy to let the markets run away with you, incredibly fast moving and you forget that you have nearly 3 hours to trade and the idea is to watch most of it and bet on a small amount, pick spots and wait, I tended to dive in most of this week.

But anyway the show rolls on. Nando Torres has scored for Chelsea and the world hasnt ended? Dublin were 8 points ahead in the league final today and bottled it (har har har har!), some things never change.. were not long from the Championship now, although I was reading Kildare only scored 4 or 5 points in a whole game, we'll wait and see, we could be shite. Life could always be worse though I could be an Arsenal fan.

Speaking of kickball, I came across this story during the week, IMO it is immense..

Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli shocked diners at a posh city centre restaurant by taunting Wayne Rooney hooker Jenny Thompson, it has been claimed.

The bib-averse Italian is said to have shouted "Rooney, Rooney" across the floor at exclusive San Carlo - then blown a raspberry in the face of her companion when he complained.

Property developer Sam Birch says Balotelli then asked him to come outside.

He said: "He tied to grab my arm before squaring up. Our foreheads were touching and I wasn't going to back down. Then he swore at me in Italian.

"I think he is unhinged."

Imagine the face on her, "Rooney, Rooney!" HA! I know hes a bit of a tosser but he clearly doesnt give a fuck so whats the point even moaning about him. I found this bit on him from Google too..

When he wrote off his sports car in Manchester shortly after arriving in the city last year, attendant police officers searched him and discovered £5,000 in cash hanging out of his back pocket. Asked why he was carrying such a sum, Balotelli shrugged and said: "Because I am rich."

What a legend, I found this picture too, theres about six people around him shouting, he just looks so calm..

Obviously if you want him to do something on a football pitch with money on it hes highly annoying, but he doesnt give a fuck.

I threw out the idea of going to Hamburg for the Haye-Klitschko for a brief while this week but jesus it looks expensive enough for staying in Europe - I thought it'd be a bit cheaper considering Germany own Ireland now you know. €200 per person for flights, it only comes down a tenner if you go four days so might as well go seven, add tickets and hotels all seem to be €100+ a night. I didnt think it'd be that much, I'll stay at home and shout at the TV.

Towcester

2011-04-22T10:55:00.003+01:00

Whether you agree/disagree with banning the whip - whatever side you lie on - it still seems a joke to me why one track can change the rules from all the other tracks.

There cannot really be one rule for one track and another rule for a different track. But anyway, anyone with any bit of sense knows the world has gone mad already, every day I read the news my faith in humanity having common sense dies a little a bit more..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/8467512/Towcester-racecourse-to-ban-jockeys-from-using-the-whip-in-races-at-the-track.html

Towcester racecourse to ban jockeys from using the whip in races at the track

Towcester, the small rural racecourse set in some of Northamptonshire’s most picturesque countryside, is set make racing history in October when it becomes the first of Britain’s 60 tracks to outlaw the use of the whip by jockeys in any of its races.

From the track’s meeting on Oct 5 and at all fixtures afterwards, every race staged at the course will be run under rules currently in place for the successful 'hands and heels’ series of races.

This series, run in conjunction with the British and Northern racing schools, is staged at a number of tracks both Flat and jumping, and is ostensibly to teach inexperienced jockeys and amateur riders how to get the best out of a horse without recourse to the whip.

One of the rules of that series is that jockeys must carry a whip. They can pull it through from one hand to the other as often as they like and hit a horse down the shoulder with it in a backhand position. However, they cannot smack a horse down the neck in the forehand position, behind the saddle or encourage it by waving the whip parallel to its head. Failure to obey the rules in this series results in automatic disqualification. After Oct 5th, any winner at Towcester whose jockey is found by the stewards to be in breach of these rules will be disqualified.

The debate about the use of the whip, nearly 20 years after officials introduced rules to curb overuse by riders, has become racing’s hottest potato in the couple of weeks since Jason Maguire was banned for five days for 'excessive use’ on the Grand National winner Ballabriggs. Donald McCain’s giant gelding subsequently had to be dismounted and given oxygen at the end of the four and a half mile race and the spectacle was watched by millions on television.

In the week after the National the British Horseracing Authority, ironically, had more negative feedback from the public about Maguire’s use of the whip than it did about the two horses which died as a result of falls in the race.

Since then, a number of big names, many of them retired trainers and jockeys – very few active participants in the sport want changes to the Rules or the whip banned – such as Ian Balding, John Francome, Clare Balding and Sir Peter O’Sullevan, have leant their weight to a campaign to get the current whip rules altered or improved.

Towcester’s board of directors, chaired by Lord Hesketh, took the decision to stick their head above the parapet in the debate earlier this week. The racecourse’s general manager Kevin Ackerman has sent a letter to Stuart Middleton at the BHA’s Race Planning Department informing him of their plans and requesting advice on the correct procedure for implementing the Rules.

It is the board’s view that the public who attend Towcester, many of them occasional racegoers who get in free under another of the course’s innovative policies, “do not enjoy watching horses getting whipped after they have raced up our steep hill”. The letter also stressed the board’s strong reservations about the present Rules, which allow the connections of a horse to be victorious in spite of their jockey having breached the regulations.

The letter continued, however, to make it clear that they did not consider the current whip rules to represent cruelty to horses. “We wish,” it added, “to address the perception and fairness of racing at Towcester.”

The BHA has issued strict guidelines for jockeys to follow regarding the number of times the whip can be used and the manner in which it can be administered. If they are found to be in breach of these Rules, jockeys are banned for a number of days depending on the severity of the offence. Repeat offenders face even more lengthy bans.

Lord Hesketh, who retained the racecourse when he sold off the family home of Eaton Neston in 2006 having invested £7.5 million in the facilities after selling off the old racecourse stables nearer the town for housing, said: “Towcester has always been an innovative racecourse. We believe this is the way forward for the industry, as we did when we pioneered free entry in 2002.”

The topography of the racecourse, which used to be part of the parkland around Eaton Neston House, is unique in boasting the stiffest uphill finish in the country, the ground rising steeply over the last half a mile. In heavy ground even the most dour stayers find it hard work to negotiate the climb to the winning post.
The course, first used for racing in 1928, is scheduled to hold 19 meetings this year.

Clare Balding; BBC presenter
"I’m in favour of no whip or no whip after the last fence, which is what I’ve suggested to the BHA and to the jockeys – it would be better coming from them. The better riders will always come out on top. From the television perspective of wanting to make racing look beautiful it is very hard with super slow-motion, it looks worse. Ruby Walsh winning on Big Buck’s at Cheltenham, when he dropped his stick, changed my mind about it – it was the best finish of the meeting."

Paul Nicholls; Champion Jumping Trainer
"I haven’t got a strong view, but it needs a lot of quiet reflection from a few good brains rather than a lot of hot air. A lot of the suggestions would be hard to police but the day they take a high profile race off someone because he’s broken the whip rules then it will become a deterrent and virtually self-policing."

Sir Peter O’Sullevan; former BBC commentator
"I’m definitely for its use for encouragement and correction, but not chastisement. On the richter scale of cruelty it doesn’t even register but it registers most regrettably cosmetically. It is often as unnecessary as it is unappealing. To say that because a horse is spoilt that we can lay into now and again is out of order. I once congratulated Willie Shoemaker on a fine winning ride in which he didn’t use his whip. He replied: ‘I guess more horses are whipped out of the winner’s enclosure than whipped in it."

David Muir; Equine consultant to the RSPCA
"We have not been behind this campaign, it’s been media driven, and are not against the whip itself. But racing needs a good system to deal with persistent offenders. With half a hundred weight of power and temperament a jockey needs a whip for safety and correction, but when it comes to encouragement it begins to get a bit fuzzy. We are not seeking an outright ban but we can’t have some jockeys behaving the way they do."

17/04/2011

2011-04-17T19:09:00.009+01:00

Youre in the running for the Premiership, you score a goal in the 98th minute to put yourself ahead, the stadium goes wild with uncontrollable joy, but then, in an unexpected twist, you give away a penalty in the 101st minute to draw, at home. Yes, thats right, it would only happen to Arsenal..

They have less bottle than Rory McIlory, although I did feel sorry for him last weekend, he was three shots ahead at some stage this weekend and ended up finishing third (in a far easier field), dont really want to call him a bottler but you surely have to give him the timeform squiggle, as soon as hes put under pressure his putting is nearly as bad as my good friend Mr Doyle.

I missed the Khan fiasco last night, but after reading the in-running thread on Betfair decided to watch it this morning. What a mountain made out of a molehill! Now, obviously the fight shouldnt have been stopped, but Khan won the six rounds (and on all three judges scorecards too) and was bossing the fight. The cries of dodgy ref are a bit over the top to say the least - its not like he was getting hammered and they thought 'oh quick lets get him out of there' he was clearly going to win anyway. McCloskeys corner had every right to be seething I suppose but in the grand scheme of things Khan was winning easily and I assume he was in the 1.0x's when it happened. Khan being a bit of a twat will always make things worse than they seem, but if McCloskey gets a rematch from his moaning and crowing he'll be doing VERY well for himself. It'll be a pointless rematch too.

Anyway, I found my bogey team for the IPL4 in the shape of RCB, minus €350 on their games this week, no real excuses apart from them being a big bunch of useless gobshites really. Ah no, I laid and they lost wickets - unluckily (for me) I like AB de Villiers and Virat Kohli, so I'll support them more times than not so didnt red out when I should have done, the rest of the team leave a lot to be desired though, I should know better. In hindsight, on their second game the correct move was to red out and save €70 but I'm strongly against backing sub 1.2 in IPL so I decided to just leave it and roll the dice, didnt work, but IMO you'd be a serious loser (probably be dead by this stage from heart attacks!) to back sub 1.2 over the past four years so I'll just get on with it.

Apart from RCB games, the markets have been OK, at one stage I was plus €450 for the week but finish with €337, I'm still sticking with the 'pick the winner' tactic rather than going equal green, its won me money this week and its the way I like doing things anyway so I'll continue - getting rid of red remains the main priority though. I missed todays games because ITV decided to show some crap touring car race instead FFS. I know there is some ill-feeling towards Sky (for whatever reason) but they really are absolutely top notch for covering sporting events and when theyre in charge and not relying on picking up the feed you never miss a moment and the time delay is minimal, theyre worth every cent IMO, life would be boring without sport anyway and without them we'd see an awful lot less.

Its Weird, In America..

2011-04-16T10:52:00.003+01:00

I havent been following this story at all, apparently its been going on since 2006, however, the Americans crusade against online gambling strikes me as, well, a bit mad:

Three largest online poker sites indicted and shut down by FBI

The founders of the three largest online poker sites were indicted on Friday in what could serve as a death blow to a thriving industry.

Eleven executives at PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker, Absolute Poker and a number of their affiliates were charged with bank fraud and money laundering in an indictment unsealed in a Manhattan court. Two of the defendants were arrested on Friday morning in Utah and Nevada. Federal agents are searching for the others.

Prosecutors are seeking to immediately shut down the sites and to eventually send the executives to jail and to recover $3 billion from the companies. By Friday afternoon Full Tilt Poker’s site displayed a message explaining that “this domain name has been seized by the F.B.I. pursuant to an Arrest Warrant.”

The online gambling industry has taken off over the last decade, drawing an estimated 15 million Americans to bet online.

In 2006 Congress passed a law curtailing online gambling. Most of the leading sites found ways to work around the law, but prosecutors allege that in doing so they broke the law.

“These defendants concocted an elaborate criminal fraud scheme, alternately tricking some U.S. banks and effectively bribing others to assure the continued flow of billions in illegal gambling profits,” Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said in a statement.

Poker fans took to Twitter in droves, worried about the money in their online gaming accounts, fretting that online poker's days were at an end.

"Well the good news is I think I only had about $300 left on the online poker sites overall," tweeted Jimi Schindler of Madison, Wis. "Maybe I'll see that money?!!?"

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/04/three-largest-online-poker-sites-indicted-and-shut-down-by-fbi.html

I suppose now is as good a time as any to appreciate that we live in a fairly "normal" part of the world towards gambling, the Australians dont let you bet in running, the French block Betfair, and now the Americans are going all FBI on poker. Cant wait for the movie to come out, Denzel Washington gonna play head FBI agent IMO, except in an unexpected twist Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan are gonna team together and run over the FBI and bring poker back.. well has anyone got a better idea..!?

10/04/2011

2011-04-10T19:00:00.010+01:00

Have to say I enjoyed Monday-Thursday off this week as planned and am raring to go for the IPL, hard to believe it doesnt finish until the 28th of May, thats literally miles away - imagine if Cheltenham went on that long. I was thinking of a 'goal' (sort of goal) to average a certain amount over the matches, €10 a match is €700, €50 a match is €3.5k etc, but I bloody hate targets and stuff like that, so I'll just get on with each game and play it as it is - days like today would present massive problems for having 'goals' because first game innings SP was 1.02 and second game was 1.06 (I think, went to Leopardstown instead). Some days its just impossible to win so having 'goals' will only lead to going hunting for something that isnt there, its probably going to be my biggest test of discipline in ages to sit through 70 odd games without getting involved in the first innings and waiting for the second - especially when the game might be effectively over be then like todays collapses.

Bit of a culture shock on Friday anyway going to the crazy moving T20 markets from the steady ODIs, still working out how to play it as I go along, green out equally or play to back the winner?

I had two books exactly the same but with different outcomes, I was late on the screen shot but they hit 1.16, without me greening out, ended up being wrong..

Then Saturday, it bounced around a few times from 1.4 to 1.9ish, held my nerve and they ended up winning..

I dont think theres any "right" way of doing things, its just personal preference. Its always annoying (after the event) to not win being in a good position but then when I'm right I win more by not going equal, so I'd back myself to be right more times than I'm wrong and sure go from there. The primary aim will always be to get rid of red anyway (if the odds allow). Friday, they needed 9 off 8, so maybe I'm over-thinking a greening tactic when in fact its just the teams being gobshites, 9 off 8 FFS. Its like this anyway - get rid of red and worry about the rest later. Theres so many games theres gonna be so many opportunities, coming back to the average if you were to win €30 every game thats €2.1k - one game in the grand scheme of things isnt going to make a difference if you keep the head.

Anybody brave enough to follow me on Twitter will know I've been backing Tiger this week, even though I've said numerous times he may never win again (howzzzaat for logic eh!), I've dumped after yesterdays round, I did have big green on him after Friday but cant see him winning now. I've had the remaining green on McIlroy - small bit afraid of the choke but he has a cushion now and the ones behind didnt really inspire yesterday so I think he can get it done. Hopefully he does anyway, because I had €100 cash on Tiger at 12s too which I never bothered laying off so Rory winning will at least get 70% of that back. I dont normally trade golf - was a serial loser first year on the blog on golf - so I'm not overly pushed what happens really, not losing €300 odd is an achievement I reckon..!

CWC Finnish

2011-04-03T19:39:00.011+01:00

Thank feck for that. And congratulations to India, probably an "obvious" pick before it started but many I'm sure lost some faith during the group stages, the bowling wasnt great but obviously they have possibly the best batting lineup in the world. Its hard to argue they werent the best team and deserving winners because they beat Sri Lanka - most deserving of a final place, Pakistan - one of the best bowling sides IMO and fantastic when theyre trying we know that, and Australia - not as good as they once were but still holders, the only other side you'd mention would be Saffers - but we all know theyre a big bunch of chokers when it comes down to knock out tournaments.

My outright bets stayed the same as last week, cant really complain. I do have one complaint though, both winning bets were placed with Betpack (they dont know I had bets elsewhere sure!) and I ended up with 2/2 with them, add my Ashes cover on the rain in the 2nd Test and I was thinking thats another account busto, one of the few I had left that wasnt really limited much, although see from the Misbah bet (€222.44) they were starting to. I didnt have to wait long to find out anyway, I tried to back St Nicholas Abbey for the Arc this morning..

Two quid, worse than Bluesq FFS! PP gave me €24 E/W and VC €50 E/W which was fine, only for the horse to go and run like a drain then. At least the positives are (OK so positives is a strong word, we'll say straws to clutch at..) first run of the season, historically APOBs need the run, ground very heavy (we had thunder and lightening with heavy showers most of yesterday) but he does like soft ground so cant really blame that but I suppose having had so long off its natural he would get tired in what was very sticky holding ground, and Fame And Glory finished a well below par 3rd in the same event last year and he had a alright season after didnt he. The Negatives are it looked shite. Ah feck it hes no chance doesnt he? I can hardly get my money back now anyway so by that assumption I make him a feckin' good thing. Love is blind.

Anyway, my trading this week has been hit and miss. Hit twice, missed once. I did learn from losing and used it effectively to win yesterday though, I should know this by now but whenever India play the market just loves them. I had plenty of chances to dump red on India v Pak but just didnt take it, always too high IMO but its very hard to fight the market all day (and get a "fair" price in doing so). I switched around on Saturday and when Sri Lanka went odds on just laid that knowing without losing a wicket the market would strongly support India for any amount of runs, which makes sense when youre on that trade but if its happening against you (as it did against Pak) I'm sitting here thinking FFS this is an incredibly shit price, 10 ticks for a single.

India winning is great though, it means thousands of Indians are most likely going to have a loaded Betfair account, and whats next week? The IPL! Boom! By far and away my favourite trading of the year, 20/20s not half as stressful as 50/50 and the afternoon games beat getting up early by miles. If I did learn one thing from the WC (and it was my first WC trading cricket) it would be to forget about the 1.0x games and just not bother, focus on more moving markets, but like I said we'll probably never have that volume of 50 over cricket again. The thing is when I see a boxing match like last night at 1/20 I just dont do it, so I should apply that rule to cricket too, even if its as big as the WC. I'm taking a full break from Betfair until Friday anyway and then should be raring to go for the IPL.

I havent done any research on it yet, but theres two more teams this year, which means were more than likely to have lesser quality Indians knocking about given youre only allowed four overseas players in each starting lineup. Some young Indian bowler bowling the last and a handy batsman there needing 14 runs, you might not want to be on the bowler as often as 14 runs would suggest. I found last year though that the market was almost expecting "amazing scenes" and you had situations where 1.3 now was 1.1 two years ago, its definitely getting harder and more competitive each year but with the two extra teams and more thinly spread out Indian players we might be back to the glory days. Sure we'll see.

(Btw, I took screen shots of my losing outright bets before they finished because it was easier to click on unsettled bets rather than do a date search when they finished, yeah that jinx didnt work either, I know).

27/03/2011

2011-03-27T20:05:00.009+01:00

Well, its been a steady week without much happening, the only amazing scenes (well, actually not amazing scenes, Saffers always choke dont they!) was Saffers collapsing and 1.07 being busted in the process..

I said last week they were prone to a choke but jesus that took the biscuit, the run out for ABdeV was really sheer rabbit in headlights stuff. Other than that I got the other three quarters right but didnt really make much money, India were short enough the whole time against Aus, Sri Lanka ended up a 1.01 train against England and Windies collapsed against Pakistan.

The good news for my outright bets is Misbah has beaten Collyingwood and Sangakkara is 120 runs ahead of any wicketkeeper left. And sightly bad news is India are 7 sixes behind New Zealand.. I didnt see New Zealand getting past the quarters (whoever they played) and possibly a little unlucky because they were involved in the Pakistan game were they got 100 odd or something crazy like that in the powerplay and hit 13 sixes alone in that game FFS, 11/4 was a fair price and I knew plenty of shrewd people backing it so no real complaints, cant see India catching them but it'd be a nice surprise if they did. Obviously Broad went home injured so thats busto, feel very unlucky there, he had 6 wickets when injured and Swann ended up with 12 having played four more games - that would have been mighty close IMO. And the Harby bet is down too, he has no chance of winning. They come out +€50 if all stays the same, if India can get up that changes to +€800 - so just a little swing there..! India have absolutely no chance whatsoever though (hopefully that jinx does it).

Its not been an enjoyable week gambling really, yesterday I hit the wall - was asleep like a baby on the couch at three in the afternoon (that was after having to walk away from the laptop during the game too FFS), 30+ days of 50 over cricket takes its toll, and I've been planning my life around the games, picking and choosing times to do other stuff and not interfere etc. I'll be glad now when its over, although we have more breaks now so its OK I suppose, in all likelihood such volume of 50 over cricket wont happen again (theyve changed the rules for the next WC havent they) so I dont need to change anything in my approach. Thank god today was a blank day and tomorrow is blank too before the semis on Tuesday, I'm nackered, I cant remember a time since starting the blog I've been this tired from trading. Time off is important!

But we'll all struggle on until next week.. "Youre never a loser until you quit trying." - Mike Ditka. The P&L while the WC has been on stands at +€1k, thats around the mark I had in mind at the start and am happy considering most of the games involved with minnows had SPs sub 1.1.

The Show Goes On

2011-03-20T19:32:00.007Z

"Well, thats it finished for another year then.." Cheltenham is only four gambling days in the year, what about the other 361! And on we go.. its amazing to think we had a meeting at The Curragh today already.

Highlights from the week - without doubt my number one was the Gold Cup, just the race in general, Denman, Kauto and Long Run going for it jumping the second last - awesome. I thought Denman had it three out and for the first time in maybe 12 months or more I took my hand away from the mouse to shout at the TV, without having a bet, really wanted him to win but fair played to Long Run. Other highlights include Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Big Bucks, all brilliant champions.

I'm still happy with my decision not to go, and judging by my pre-off guesses without backing them, I reckon I saved around €3k (all things considered in going) in staying at home, and won €150 in-running too which gave me great pleasure seeing as how I am finnish at the horses game in general. Its not that I hate racing now, far from it, its just not worth watching in terms of the return, flicking over to Sedgefield and Huntington reminded me why I gave up, small fields, low liquidity nearing nothing (place market), a time disadvantage and low grade horses - give me Cheltenham however and I'm buzzing - but it all revolves around money doesnt it?

Well, it does. The pluses for Cheltenham (and other big meetings) are, every horse is trying, you have money queuing up on every horse, and you have outsiders involved who arent as sharp as our normal 24/7 crowd. I can watch a race, take a view, get matched and get realistic odds (I'm not gonna preach every bet I have is "value" more so I'd just be happy with what I do and everyone else can do as they please, just as I can). So I'm happy, big fields, money, horses trying, good horses, and liquidity. Now, compare that list to, say Lingfield, tomorrow. There would be absolutely no point in me watching, I wouldnt get fair odds offered to lay (place market), I'd get bored and I wouldnt get money. Money is king.

There are obvious reasons why Cheltenham is better than the normal Monday-Friday grind, but the question is, how can the BHA attract people to the Monday-Friday grind in its currently state?

Anyway moving on, my horse racing Monday-Friday ship has sailed, and we finally have the quarter-finals in the cricket WC:

Quarter-final 1 - March 23rd, Mirpur: Pakistan v West Indies
Quarter-final 2 - March 24th, Ahmedabad: India v Australia
Quarter-final 3 - March 25th, Mirpur: New Zealand v South Africa
Quarter-final 4 - March 26th, Colombo: Sri Lanka v England
Semi-final 1 - Winner of (Pakistan v West Indies) v Winner of (India v Australia)
Semi-final 2 - Winner of (New Zealand v South Africa) vs Winner of (Sri Lanka v England)

I have Pak beating Windies, although both teams blow hot and cold, Pak to edge it if they dont collapse, they have the better bowling. India beating Aus, because Aus have only beaten Kenya, Canada, Zimbabwe and New Zealand, Sri Lanka were odds on when their game was rained off and got beaten by Pak, I know India arent great but neither are Aus. Sri Lanka beating Eng, whoever bats first will have a massive edge because of the chasing stats but Eng have been fairly poor so far, expect to hear phrases like "theyre tired" and "the schedule is too much" etc etc etc if theyre beaten. And Saffers to easily beat New Zealand, bar a choke, they have history for choking but New Zealand shouldnt be good enough to beat them, you would think anyway. India v Pak and Sri Lanka v Saffers would be amazing semi-finals IMO.

Not the first time (maybe the 20,295th time by now) this has happened me! Sitting pretty chasing an easy score..

Green out fully? WTF? Why would I go equal green, theyre fooking cruising..

Yeah I should have greened out.

The same thing happened me with Pak v Aus too, sitting pretty at 1.09 (carrying red, 1.1 too high at the time IMO), two balls and two wickets later its 1.45, feck. You know, sure I mean you make these decisions and you go from there. Obviously I'm always thinking about greening out but theres no point just greening out for the sake of greening out, its easy to look back and say 'I should have done this etc' but at the time I knew what I was doing (everyone knows what theyre doing FFS), I made a decision (at the time, there and then) and it didnt work out. I dont regret the decision because I made it, no one ever makes a mistake in hindsight anyway, thats why we have so many experts commentating on games sitting in Sky saying "he should have done this, he should have done that" once something has gone wrong. I'm annoyed Windies didnt win, because it was fecking easy, I'm annoyed Pak lost two wickets in two balls, but I'm not annoyed at not greening, I did it, I accept it, I move on. (Its nice to still win on both games but I went from €164 and €97 awe-green to winning €21 and €30, but hindsight and all that jazz etc).

I look back now and can say 'should have greened' but at the time, I was happy, so just because I was wrong doesnt mean the world ends, the odds are the odds and you make decisions. There is no "should have" because AT THE TIME there is always the opportunity to "should have" but you didnt, you didnt for a reason. So when it goes tits up, you still have that reason, and your "should have" is armed with the result. And as I said, no one ever makes a mistake with hindsight. Windies at around 1.25 was far too high for the situation at the time, I made a decision, it was the wrong decision for the result, but the odds were wrong for greening too - that was my reason. My "should have" is perfect because I have the result. My reason is still the same, although not perfect, because I didnt have the result. And I can live with that, even though I want to be perfect.. :)

Who Said Footballers Are Stupid..?

2011-03-18T11:50:00.001Z

I mean, really?

Useless

2011-03-13T16:18:00.007Z

I'll save everyone the rant, sure you all know how bad the site has been this week. In fact, I think that statement is worse than actually having to explain how bad they are - everyone already knows.

Because of my style, the outages arent the end of the world, but someone whos trading off a stop loss rather than a max liability is completely fecked though. I'm sure everyone uses internet banking in some shape or form, I practically use it every day, and its been down once in all my time with an account, once! Betfair has been crashing once a day this weekend FFS. Unacceptable from such a big company with peoples money on the line.

Speaking of online banking, I now have exactly €4 in my laser account for this week. Finnish? No, transfered - its to stop me having any pre-off bets on Cheltenham. I have good discipline generally but I know theres gonna be one or two next week where I'll be going "well, its worth 20 quid.." No, no it isnt worth 20 quid. So that solves that. I havent studied any form whatsoever, I was looking at the markets on Betfair today, in the Arkle - I've only ever seen two horses race, Realt Dubh and Mikael Dhaguenet, never even heard of the rest of them. I'll probably get a good bit of stick this week, but I'm not a sap you know - my loyalty lies with money, not racing, and it has become unprofitable last year so thats it really. I'd be a mug to keep betting on something and lose just for the "love" of it, I'll have some sort of dash at in-running to see what the story is and that'll be it.

Anyway, onto my stressful Saturday, I was lucky in the sense that when we crashed, the market was exactly where I had laid at the time and I had Kallis and Amla there (if you could pick two cricketers they'd be high on the list to have in such events), so I wasnt *too* bothered initially..

Then, it comes back for two balls, settles at around 1.6 and I'm just thinking what to do, then goes again.. next ball? Wicket. The poor new desk got his first punch god love him (and I'm normally a very calm person!). Checked oddschecker to see India at 30/100 - 2/7 and thought FFS not depositing €500 into a bookies for 2/7 and decided to hold tight. The site never came back after that, but Saffers won, so I was happy-ish in the end, stressful but alright. If it was a bookies I'd be screaming "Feck you! Get in!" but its Betfair so theres no one to scream at. Horrible watching it though, especially when it went after the wicket, but I suppose the max liability style suits over a stop loss - green point.

I dont have any facts, just my feeling, but Betfair has always been bad in the run up to Cheltenham. Always seem to recall at least one crash the week or so before Cheltenham, I'd be of the opinion that it'll be fine for the big event, and theyve been fiddling around the servers lately to gear up for it (just my view no facts). They also moved offshore this week so that might have something to do with it - "Any further use of our site, or services relating to it, will constitute acceptance of the new Terms and Conditions by you. This change means that from the above time, you will be contracting with a licensed betting operator (TSE (Gibraltar) LP) within the Betfair group which is based in Gibraltar, and not Betfair Ltd, as was the case before. TSE (Gibraltar) LP’s activities will be governed by Gibraltar gambling regulations." Lucky they dont have to pay much tax anymore because they'll need the extra cash with all these crashes!

Looking forward to events next week anyway to see what happens, my money is on no crash but we'll see.

06/03/2011

2011-03-06T17:59:00.007Z

Well, pretty boring week in the cricket, Ireland only beat England setting a world record chase for WC cricket, Kevin O'Brien set the world record for the fastest 100 in WC cricket and only €3.2M busto at 1.01, you know, nothin' major. Shhure were a great bunch of lads. Suddenly cricket is cool on Facebook! I cant wait now to see all the exciting status' when Lancashire play Hampshire in the Pro40 during the summer.

I know I've went on about this subject in the past but surely cricket is one of the worst sports around to back in the 1.0x's? Darts and tennis are probably up there too. I know theres an argument "well I'd back 1.07 if I made it 1.02" but the fact it bounces around makes it very unappealing (to me anyway). I'd probably back in the 1.1x's but never 1.0x unless thats where I started laying, I suppose everyone is different.. people often say they dont back odds on on the Betfair forum and I think theyre insane but each to their own. It comes down to return really doesnt it, putting €300 on at 1.01 isnt worth the stress IMO because I can make do without the €3 as I have the €300, putting €300 on at 1.5 returns €150 though which is fair enough if it wins and you make it 1.3 or so. Theres no right or wrong argument, just personal preference - if I had someone to my right saying "I dont back odds on" I'd look at him as if he was barking mad, and if I had someone on my left saying "I only back 1.02s" I'd look at him as if he was barking mad as well..

On the subject of 1.02, €1M+ was done on the Saffers today..

I'm sort of an in between person, if I thought something was short but would win, I wouldnt lay it (I'd rather have no bet), whereas other people would work purely on figures and numbers, I wouldnt like laying something I thought was gonna win anyway. Funnily enough I lost money in one of these situations on Thursday Canada v Pakistan, I thought Pak should have been easily 1.7+ but the market held them around 1.6 - knowing Pak would win in the end really, I had laid 1.3 and thought I'm not greening out at those odds FFS only to watch Pak then win (as was the most likely result anyway). The trouble about bias markets is when you lay 10 ticks shorter than it "should" be (I say should as in your opinion) you probably have to green out 10 ticks shorter too because the market bias wont have changed, your opinion on those 10 ticks wouldnt have changed either though, catch-22 isnt it? The market is "wrong" but at some stage you have to swallow your pride, bias markets are usually bias for a reason anyway as its a super-power v a minnow.

At least I have one good market this week, Ireland.. :)

I wouldnt mind I went for a jog and shower during our innings, they were getting hammered sure, and when I came back England were still 1.02, I wasnt even gonna watch but luckily enough now there wasnt anyone good looking on Sky Sports News at the time or it could have been all different. Its fair to say though I am blessed, Betfair went down on Thursday for a while and I had no position, the power went to the house on Saturday and I had no position - I know saying this means I'll probably have €200 odd exposure next time and lose. Having no electricity is no craic by the way, no TV, no internet, no computer, no cooker, no shower, FFS those African lads they show on the ads must be fierce bored on a Saturday afternoon.

I'm still losing on the lower odds markets, but again same as last week just the odd tenner on each game. I suppose theres ways of looking at it, the one time the minnow won I got €180 so losing a tenner when the favs win seems alright. Seriously though, how did Ireland not beat Bangladesh watching them against England and India? Threw it away FFS.

Into the future, and I'm not heading to Cheltenham this year. Ah, I havent the same buzz from racing this year as in past so not really pushed on going. The money is probably better off being spent on something I'd be really buzzing about going to rather than be 50/50 you know, or the way things are in Ireland probably the best option is saving it. To be honest, I couldnt name one horse in the Supreme this year, not one, whats happened to me!? Its a weird feeling because people still talk to me about racing and I feel so lost standing there, and before I'd know or at least heard about everything and be able to have confidence in what I'm saying but now not at all. I have to be careful too because obviously not everyone knows how much I've changed towards it, and as everyone who bets knows you have everyone youve ever known asking for tips Cheltenham week that dont normally bet, I remember two years ago I was there to anyone that would listen "back Go Native, back Go Native, back Go Native" whereas now, I'm afraid to say anything because sure I'm in no position to give a worthy opinion, they bet once a year, I bet everyday, so youre going to influence them in some way, and I'm in no position to.

I'm fairly happy with the decision not to go anyway, I'll miss the banter on the nights out etc, but for the amount of money I should be getting the buzz when theyre jumping the last and its not there. It'll be my first time not going since my Grandad first took me in 2002, end of an era, hes delighted though because he hasnt gone for the last few years and I said I'll go to his to watch all the races with him so that should be good.

I still cant any find any prices on the Government bar PPs, although they only signed the agreement today I believe so maybe we'll have more. I know I've probably been a bit harsh giving them stick before they even started, but I hope the Govern better than they drive anyway.. was it the five point plan or the five step plan?

AMAZING SCENES!

2011-03-02T17:04:00.001Z

Can anyone remember a bigger gubbing?

That was awesome!

27/02/2011

2011-02-27T17:54:00.009Z

Sad times :( I went and had dinner before writing but still gutted really, nothing worse than an awe-green void market for the tie. First bet into the market was laying €400 in the 1.2s and then with the flip was sitting pretty, only for Eng to cock it up - somehow getting from needing 67 off 10 to 52 off 5 (I think it was 52 anyway). I wouldnt mind but I tweeted before even having a bet "This is just the type of chase where you'd love to have Morgan in the line up IMO" and jesus they missed him IMO. Hard to place blame but - Yardy gets 13/10, Bresnan 14/9, Swann 15/9 and Shahzad hits a 6 facing just two balls.. how come Collingwood and Prior manage 5 runs off 13 balls between them, theyre the batsmen it should have been there job to bring them home. (And I know my outright bets are against both but still..!)

Anyway life goes on, annoying for me because I was sat here with €230 green on Eng thinking fantastic, then it starts to look buggered so go equal green for €96 thinking thats handy, then get nothing thinking oh FFS. Some people must be delighted though because look at all the millions matched on India at the innings break, only for Eng to trade the same price a few hours later..

I took that screen shot because I was full sure I'd be talking about a gubbing, sigh.

At least the good news is Brian Lenihan retained his seat in Dublin West, my sports betting has been a bit poor/unlucky (today!) this week so thankful for my political betting skills, HA! Early odds on how long FG will last are..

11/4 next year is very short but understandable given the circumstances were in, next Government (whether its FG-independents or FG-Lab) will have to take some seriously unpopular decisions and the problems we have arent been given near enough time to solve them without the public becoming unhappy, so they'll be under pressure from day 1. Its gonna take something massive to collapse completely though so 11/4 is short, how long Enda will last - now theres the market! Still waiting for that one though.

Coming back to sports betting, I was gutted again on Friday night after Ireland failed to chase down 206, they only needed 38 off the last 10 overs FFS, admittedly with only three wickets. Winning would have given cricket here a massive boost, and when you think about it, how many times are we going to have the chance to chase 206? Very little you'd assume. I had every chance to green out too, and never took the full green option - that made watching them feck it up far worse! As for the games in the low odds, I havent been great, but really and truly havent had a strong opinion and ended up losing the odd tenner nearly every game - could be worse, could be better.

Anyway, plus €50 ending the week, losing €150 on Betfair but Lenihan winning me €200.. in an ideal world today wouldnt have been a tie and then Betfair figures would look much better and I'd be €150 up.. then in an ideal world Ireland would have lost either etc etc etc sure I'd never back a loser..

Theres an Irish freeroll being run by the Racing Post starting at 8-00, I think first five get some sort of prize and theres only 40 odd entered so far, should be good craic, with a freeroll I expect to be doubled in 10 minutes or busto, thats my plan anyway.

24/02/2011

2011-02-24T19:42:00.004Z

Six days into the cricket WC and so far weve yet to have a second innings SP at 1.3+, and weve yet to have any team trade 1.4+ second innings either. Slow going with the minnows really but it should pick up the weekend.

Cricket: -€34.02 Total P&L: -€34.02

So far theyve all played at least one game bar Ireland, and India lead the way with most 6s with 7, Windies second with 5, and Aus, Pak, Bangs and Holland follow with 3.

Seething with Broad taking a wicket and England not having the correct amount of players in circle, FFS it was schoolboy, hes joint top Eng bowler with Swann on two. I forgot to say Sunday too, I had a small cover bet on Colly at 66/1.

Anyway, General Election tomorrow! Whats that old saying.. "Out of the frying pan, into the fire.." Obviously FG will win thats a given, but if theyre going into Government with Labour then we have no idea what we'll end up with because both of them differ so much, there'll have to be some middle ground which wont have been what people actually voted for with either party. But anyway, the blind leading the blind whaaa!

I'm waiting to see if any bookies make on a book on how long they'll last, or more importantly, how long Enda will last. Very keen to back under two years, and I reckon even FG will want to get rid of him as leader at some stage. He'll be the next Brian Cowan for public negative opinion, he was never really liked in the first place anyway and hes becoming Taoiseach by default really. Goes without saying I hope he makes things better, but as a betting man I'd back he makes things worse.

Bar the obvious selections, Paddy Power went 10/11 Brian Lenihan today to win a seat in Dublin West, that looks huge, PP must have a strong opinion or know something I dont but I'd have him around 4/11, hes been all sorts of prices during the campaign and matched at 2/5 on Betfair, with four seats you'd think he'd get in and it'll be big news if he doesnt. Obviously everywhere there will be the Anyone-But-FF element but he should still have a core vote, IMO Brian Cowan was far more hated than Lenihan and he sort of took him down with him, Lenihan is far more likable.

And from the horses mouth, even Betfair think its a big price sure.. :)

Self Improvements

2011-02-20T18:00:00.003Z

I'm happy out this weekend, its the simple things:

I bought an office desk and chair, I've been wanting a proper gambling place for bloody ages but decided to wait until the sales after Christmas to get a good comfortable executive type chair - never understood people spending lots of money on a TV setup and then spending very little on a couch - comfort is everything. Anyway, I was reading a thread on the forum there before The Ashes about what people do while theyre gambling, all sorts of weird and wonderful ways, some stand up, some lie down, one listened to the TV in the sitting room and bet on the kitchen table (theres always one eh!), some had offices and some, myself included, were couch people. We have a fireplace in the middle of the sitting room here, like most Irish houses, so the TV has to be placed to one side and rules out it being on the wall, I used to lean over to my left so I'd have the laptop and TV in the same line of sight, were here three years now (I think) and only recently I've been starting to get real pains in my shoulder after a longish session. So the desk and chair solves that problem.

I also bought a netbook while away, I was thinking - every time I want to check something, say the run chase in Excel, I have to minimize the market, especially when on a Mac because youve to switch from Gruss on windows back to Excel on Mac (VMware Fusion is amazing btw, lets you run both parallel, highly recommend), anyway I cant check Excel/Cricinfo/etc without leaving the market screen - I know the market wont move an awful lot most times but I'd say 2 or 3 ticks could build up over time, without me even knowing about it. Netbooks are cheap enough anyway and I brought it down to the lads in Dublin to change it from 1GB to 2GB so its able to cope with more things faster, it should compliment the Mac well you know. And I read a lot about the two-screen trading and it seems to work well for their needs, I'd have different needs because of so many applications open rather than just Betfair but it'll definitely help. And I know its around two years ago now but putting a TV at the end of the bed the same size as the one downstairs has proved an ultra shrewd decision with WC games starting at half 8 - watch the first innings in bed, gamble at my desk for the second innings, life is wonderful!

I have no reason to lose now anyway bar myself being a gobshite. I didnt think it before I actually sat down but it is nice to have your own space purely for gambling and can leave everything as is untouched. Far better than using a space which has to be used for something else too. Its the simple things in life.

Alas, I havent won any money yet (you were waiting for me to say that werent you). I actually won €5.74 in the last two weeks, I am in clover. Cricket WC isnt much fun for the first few weeks with the minnows involved, Kenya only managed 69 runs today, Canada were brutal but at least got to treble figures with 122. Tomorrow, Australia are 1.03, Tuesday England are 1.04, and Wednesday Pakistan are 1.06. Oh joy. I'm not a massive runs player so just have to wait around for some action in the win market, obviously not backing in the 1.0x's.

I do have outright bets though..
India most tournament 6s at 11/4.
Stuart Broad top England wicket taker at 4/1.
Kumar Sangakkara top wicket-keeper run scorer at 3/1.
Harbhajan Singh top bowler out of the spinners at 7/2 (field of 8 with Lads, think its called 'turn and burn' if I remember correctly).
Misbah Ul-Haq 4/6 to out score Paul Collingwood (11/10).

Not big on anything but fairly sweet on India, Broad and Sangakkara after today. Harby only took one wicket first game but Murali didnt bowl well today IMO - although he did take two wickets, I dont fancy Swann coming back from injury and could miss some games, I really think Broad should be no more than 9/4ish top England bowler. No innings 400+ at 10/11 looked alright too but the minnows have scared me away from that bet, dont think anyone will get 400 but over the whole tournament worrying about 10/11 isnt worth it really, India went close enough first game that you'd have been slightly nervy at some points, thing about that bet is you can easily trade because 400 at the start of any innings should be a fairly juicy price, but the problem is *when* to cover, think 400+ hit 3 on Betfair first game, 375 was gubbed at 1.03 too.

I'm cricket mad this weather anyway, WC goes until the 2nd April and then the IPL starts and goes to the 28th May. I look forward to leaving the house again on the 29th of May. Its actually my birthday then first week in June and the kind folks at Epsom are always nice enough to put on the Derby that weekend so everyone can celebrate. If anyone rings for lunch now "Yeah, er, I'm free.. hows August for you?"

In other fantastic news, The Rock is back! What a champ. What a hero. The crowd when his music comes on is unreal (pity JR wasnt commentating). Childhood = RELIVED! They'll never ever replace the Attitude Era, just another thing the PC Brigade has ruined saying you cant do this, you cant say that. FFS I used to get up every single Saturday and Sunday morning and watch it when I was a kid, and sure I turned out alright didnt I? I havent handed someone a beer and then gave them a Stone Cold Stunner in weeks.. (Steve Austin, theres another champ, what a man).

06/02/2011

2011-02-06T18:11:00.008Z

Seems so long ago since the transfer window closed on Monday, Torres 50M, Carroll 35M, apparently bidding 14M for that Blackpool fellow Adams, footballs gone mad. I was just thinking though, good business deals - like say Van Der Vaart for 8M - are becoming a rarity these days, youre better of putting no pass on it almost because none of it makes sense at this stage, Carrol for 35M is obviously insane but its their money I suppose. In fairness we were all glued to Liverpool-Chelsea this evening, cant complain we all still watch it, Liverpool done United and Arsenal a massive favour there though (I was gonna say done the big clubs a massive favour just to wind them up but sure thats too easy, too easy).

The biggest football news this week however is Gary Neville retiring, I think someone said he wants the job at Sky? Lets face facts here, hes a small, angry at the world, self-obsessed, bias United fan. Pundit? Surely he'd be much more suited to refereeing. Myself and the lads done an accumulator, like every weekend, normally get a few wrong - this week one team let us down. You know who it is, I dont even have to say it. Arsenal. FFS. At half time "Sure City are 3-0 up and Arsenal 4-0 so those games are in anyway.." Thats what I get for laughing at Newcastle fans all those times they said they were gonna finish top 4.

Anyway, January has finally ended and I've managed to win! Yes win, amazing scenes! Plus €150 this week and felt a million dollars on Tuesday ending up €100+ awe-green, for the first time in weeks, forgot the buzz of winning. The thing I'm most happy about is I went four weeks not doing a thing correctly and only managed to lose €275ish and then can win more than 50% of that back in just one week, happy I didnt do anything daft while things were bad you know. Tuesday anyway, Aus-Eng bounced around the whole game nearly and thankfully was right a few times instead of being wrong, always favoured Aus because of Engs bowling though, so that helped. 6-1 seems like a proper beating but they'll be a completely different side in the WC, Swann will be back anyway and hes obviously the best bowler. I was trying to think this morning who'll open, Bell instead of Prior? I dont want to drop Colly for his bowling so have to pick between Bell and Prior to open really, Morgan now has a broken finger though, HUGE loss if hes not fit, IMO he'll win you at least one game by himself, but if hes not fit I was thinking of bringing back Cook, so he could open and that solves that problem - I know hes not even in the squad, but he was basically 'the man' on the tour of Bangladesh and is coming off a fantastic Ashes series - this is only if Morgan is injured now, I'd really favour not dropping Colly because they'll need him if Anderson or Bresnan start to go around the park. And its obvious from the series against Aus the second string bowlers arent much good.

I'd have, Strauss, Bell, Trott, KP, Morgan, Colly, Prior, Swann, Bresnan (if Broad is fit I'd rather him), Yardy and Anderson. Problem with that is, Anderson and Bresnan are open to go for runs on subcontinent wickets, Strauss and Bell arent *really* explosive openers (compared to Sehwag, Watson, Gayle, etc), KP and Colly need runs and Morgan has a broken finger, so its all starting to look dodgy. But sure feck it, Ireland are certainties to win the whole thing anyway.

I've been incredibly lucky to miss the site crashes this week too, I was busy early Saturday afternoon and the weather (how bad has it been this week FFS!) meant I was late getting back and missed the first half Ireland-Italy when it first went down. And then was all ready to do the boxing last night, and was persuaded to lie down on the couch and watch a film instead, and it crashed again. The whole site was down Sunday night to Monday afternoon for an upgrade - these upgrades are great arent they..! Reading the forum, the 1.2 shot in the boxing traded odds against on Betdaq, and Ireland were 1.18ish I think and traded 4+ too. These things happen, but I cant remember the last crash before the "upgrade?" Then twice on the first busy day AFTER they do it. I have also discovered the most annoying screen on the internet ever.. unbelievably annoying, you have to sign out and sign back in when it happens too FFS, seething.

Six Nations looks wide open this year though, I thought England were crap(ish), but Wales were more crap. And Ireland were absolutely terrible. France fairly impressive scoring but not great defending, plus theyre fairly flaky and have to play Ireland and England away this year, they should beat us though really, not sure about England. Hard to have a strong opinion but I suppose the fact England have France in Twickenham might just give it to them. England could be going for the Grand Slam against us at The Aviva last weekend.

I've traded the games pretty OK, Ireland game was a bit lucky because I only backed them small when Italy scored the try, I'd have been in bother had I got home sooner. One regret was not going equal green on Wales-England, split second decision to let it go and sure Wales were 60s-100s less than a minute later. They never looked like winning and when I backed them it was for a trade not a straight bet so why I didnt go equal I've no idea, stupid (easy to say in hindsight mind).

And sad to see Leopardstown lose their Gold Cup meeting today, add that to losing Stephens Day and the day after that, must have a serious impact on their finances this year. You never get the same crowds turning up when its rescheduled, and both biggest days of the year gone south. Gives a betting day next week though because looking at www.livesportontv.com/ theres not that much on all week (that I'd be betting on anyway). I wont be around next weekend either, if anyone decides to check in no need to bother, Valentines weekend so one must build up credits so I can watch cricket at all sorts of wonderful hours during the year. I was actually joking the other night when Sky Atlantic was lunched saying that we may never leave the house again, they have 24, Prison Break, and now started watching Boardwalk Empire, they have everything.. but looking at the fixture list for the WC its a serious possibility I actually indeed may never leave the house again, and the IPL starts a few days after that - at least that starts at 12ish though, WC - 4AM and second game at 9AM, head in hands man, I was just thinking after this morning that was the end of the Aus wallet and early mornings, not so..

Back blogging on the 20th.

Improvement!

2011-01-30T20:13:00.008Z

A win of €14.40 this week, hurrah! It beats losing anyway. Its nice to get January over and steady the ship. Most things have still been a struggle but better than the previous three weeks, Eng were useless this morning, 145/9 - just terrible, if that happened last week I'd have lost plenty but having seen how bad theyve been this series I'm sort of almost expecting it by now and got away with a €13 loss, play properly and they win IMO, but I've said that at least three games so far and theyve lost them all. Funny how the team who lose The Ashes always do well in the ODI series after, personally I wouldnt read too much into this for the WC.

To follow on from the last post, Jimmy Michie has announced his retirement from snooker..! What an odd set of circumstances FFS. Marcus Campbell then made it to the semi finals in the end. Hopefully the investigation is done properly anyway, I have another screen shot from all the matches on Saturday afternoon, shows how strange the 1.5 was, even the big names were only 8/11, in fairness to the bookies they did open at 5/6 and sure how were they supposed to know what was coming.

That game aside, it has been a fantastic tournament for snooker, and can only help the game IMO. Alright, once/twice a year is enough, but Mark King said when interviewed "its a much better buzz to play in front of 1,000 shouting people than the normal quiet 20 or so on tour." Obviously when you change things you 'offend' (I use offend loosely) people who like the old game, but I'd rather offend the 20 people and have the new 1,000 people than stick with the people who hate change. For betting, it is the new crack cocaine, and Friday night/Saturday morning it was free money, market has somewhat copped on this evening and its been harder, although maybe that was just me losing.. dont know much about all the players so aimed to win a fiver/tenner off each game and sure Friday night, because it was new and no one knew what to do, you couldnt really lose just trading on numbers.

Speaking of offending people, Andy Gray and Richard Keys, what are we gonna do with them. Obviously they were wrong, and obviously sacking them was the way to go given the videos that came out after the offside one. However, a bit of realism, far FAR worse things happen in the world, like this fellow for example, who locked his wife in a cellar for 16 years, hes not on every news channel/news paper going. The whole sexism issue seems very clouded to me though, and theres an awful lot of double standards, I dont read much on the issue but I've never heard of a man complaining of sexism - and theres a lot of bad things said about men in womens TV shows, magazines and shows like Sex In The City/Desperate Housewives, then it all kicks off when a man says something bad, I dont know, obviously its wrong but the furore over it is unbelievable. Anyway, isnt it great to see Sky Sports tackle sexism, yep, its fantastic. Now, whos this weeks soccerette again? Er, yeah.

On a personal note, and living in my gambling bubble, I'm a bit annoyed they got sacked because they were good at the job and watchable. Like I said countless times before, what sportsmen and other people do in their own time is their own business and none of mine, and I thought they were quite good on the TV while I was watching/gambling. My opinion would be, one woman should be 'offended,' the lines-lady, and it is no one elses business because it does not involve them, simple as that. But having said that, 99.9999999% of the stuff reported on the news has absolutely nothing to do with most people but that doesnt stop them getting all worked up over it. Its like the current situation in Egypt, of course its bad, but unless you live there it makes fook all difference to our life here what happens there. So Andy Gray is a bit sexist, Tiger Woods likes a ride, John Terrys a twat, Wayne Rooney rides grannies, Ashely Cole is daft for cheating on Cheryl, Katie Price is a bit of a slapper and Andy Murray is Scottish again after losing, does any of it change my life, no. Celebrities eh..

Anyway, Tiger came back this week, always adds to watching the golf doesnt he, I'm still of the opinion he cant be backed until he actually wins again. But, he REALLY has to stop seething after hitting a bad shot, I think he dropped three in five holes Friday night and he was effing and blinding, throwing clubs, whacking them off the ground, shouting fuck at the top of his voice (which was very funny at the time!), its a fact he cannot be operating 100% if hes seething, like anything. He wont come near to winning until he stops, I'd love to actually sit down and tell him hes a fooking eejit and just calm down, we all know the chances of that happening..! But seething will get him no where in life, and he still has major mental questions to answer IMO. Alright I'll say it, dont hold me to it, but the great man, unless he stops the seething, is FINNISH. That comment should at least give him the grand slam of majors in 2011 anyway, 80/1! Being serious I'd rather back 10/11 he gets none (I havent though).

Has This Ever Happened Before?

2011-01-29T11:27:00.005Z

A dodgy snooker match? Add it to the list..

http://bettingzone.co.uk/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=snooker/11/01/29/manual_102546.html

WPBSA TO PROBE BETTING PATTERNS

The WPBSA are to investigate the Caesarscasino.com Snooker Shoot-Out match between Jimmy Michie and Marcus Campbell because of suspicious betting patterns.

The governing body were contacted by bookmakers who were concerned about the amount of bets placed on Campbell to win the one-frame shoot-out, which ended in a 32-21 victory to the Scot.

The matter has been passed on to David Douglas, head of the WPBSA's integrity unit, for a thorough and immediate investigation.

WPBSA chairman Jason Ferguson said: "We take the threat of corrupt activity very seriously and we are treating this matter with the utmost urgency.

"Having set up the integrity unit last year, we have the mechanisms in place to make a full investigation."

-----

I actually picked this up live, each match is one frame - so most (not all obviously) have been 1.9 - 2.1 or thereabouts, Ronnie O'Sullivan started at 1.69 for example. This lesser known fellow rocks up starts at 1.5! And for the amounts matched on each game there was a fair amount placed in relative terms, most bookies pulled the market after Campbell was backed from 5/6 to 2/5. Obviously people would have to watch the match themselves to form an opinion, but Michie missed some seriously, seriously, seriously easy shots IMO.

Like I said, I copped this live so have the screen shot of the graph, he goes from the "normal" price of evens-ish to under 1.5 pre-match, people take on the price just before it starts because every game has been priced closely - so 1.5ish seemed a fantastic lay, price goes to 1.6 but then crashes to 1.5 again as the players are walking out, which also claim the biggest spike in volume. The price spikes are when Michie "got in" but then proceeded to miss badly.

In relative terms to the markets (and you can watch them this afternoon too), €109k out of €118k, even discounting the bookie gamble, is a massive amount, with basically nothing traded on Michie.

To compare, and I know this is pre-off and without in running money obviously, Shaun Murphys game today €1,467 has been matched, and he is 1.72 and a previous World Champion. In the winner market for the whole tournament, there has been €16,361 matched. Neil Robertson (1.67), another World Champion, has a game starting in 15 minutes and €3,458 has been matched. I didnt think Campbell v Michie would be the star attraction of the week..!

23/01/2011

2011-01-23T18:29:00.006Z

Well, still January, still losing, whats feckin' new..

Not too bad this week at -€73.78, in the grand scheme of things that arb with Ladbrokes on Thursday was massive, but I suppose without it you'd take away -€150 from Betfair and those figures would look better to the eye, but it was plus €100 for nothing and needed. The positive thing is I havent done anything daft and stuck to the number one P&L sport, even that was a struggle but I'd imagine the other sports would be even worse.

Bit ironic really that when I stop betting on the Saffer games because I'm losing on them and winning on Eng, I begin to lose on the Eng games then. Eng were absolutely terrible though in the 2nd ODI, very un-current-England-like and going back to the old ODI team were you could rely on them to cock things up. These things happen though, during a good spell I'd shrug my shoulders and say so what, but during a poor enough spell were I'm not winning automatically think why me FFS. Aus tried their level best to cock up their chase this morning too, I backed them at 1.5 - to see Eng go 1.8 after, I was lying there at half seven debating whether or not to bother and just roll over, decided no I'll get up (dedication) - by jaysus I walked into hard work. Managed to finish Aus +€2 Eng -€110ish, stress. The Aus season will soon be coming to an end though and it was a really good one, +1.5k on Betfair and €500 from Betpack on the 2nd test, obviously things are difficult now but I hope one day to back a winner again.. eventually..

Hurricane Fly was fairly good again today, but you know its hard to get too excited because he just keeps beating Solwhit. You'd have to worry about going to Cheltenham because nigh on his whole form book revolves around beating Solwhit, and if you were to rate Hurricane highly, then you'd have to rate Solwhit too - and hes not even running in the CH. You'd have to go back to April 09 for a race where they werent first/second favourites, bar Dunguib who blew out against them - and hasnt ran yet this season. The Irish Champion hurdle scene has been a bit same old-same old, weve no real line into how good Hurricane is, Solwhit was well beaten last year but did have an interrupted prep I suppose. I hope Hurricane wins for an Irish winner but I'd have no interest whatsoever in backing him at 5/1 now.. (that'll probably be gone by tomorrow too, only 5/1 with PP, 4/1 the general price). I suppose we'll find out how good he is on the day, shaping up to be the race of the meeting at the moment.

And obviously in light of what Paul Nicholas said about Kauto "Blood test results shows signs of inflammation and low grade infection. Weeks antibiotics and easy few days," I take back what I said about retiring him, I still think hes not as good as he once was though and give him no real chance in the Gold Cup. But if he did have something amiss then obviously theres no real reason to retire him, weird thing to say about a Gold Cup winner but I'm not convinced the horse likes Cheltenham, if theres a seriously fast/strong gallop I think he comes up short.

I said last week too it was heavy odds on Cowan passes the motion of confidence, he did, but hes still FINNISH. As is the whole Government now with the Greens walking out today, FINNISH. Ireland, FINNISH. FINNISH. Kaput. The end is nigh. I've no idea why but I've found watching the news the last few days fascinating, they all talk complete shite but the hysteria around the place is amazing! No real interest in politics but I have a huge amount of time for Brian Lenihan for some reason, and find it odd how quickly the opposition want an election, obviously they know they'll win, I find it mad that everyone will automatically vote for them without hearing their reasoning/solutions/policies/etc, it kind of smacks of reaction voting (but I know nothing about this in fairness). Thats probably why I like Brian Lenihan he seems to live in the real world and keeps saying "we are where we are and we move forward," its like being €100 awe-red in the market, you move on to get green instead of crying over why you ended up red in the first place.

Maybe a new Government and we can move on, its frightening how stuck living in the past the media and everyone has become, would you believe theres some fellow who wants to pay €5k to crush Seanie Fitzpatricks old BMW, what a fooking waste of €5k, as if bashing a car will change a thing, what a fooking eejit! "You cant put a price on happiness" he says, what a mug, this idea of getting back at people (in stupid ways it has to be said) worries me because theres a fair chance we might actually end up worse off next year than we are now, because people are acting off bitter reactions rather than thinking clearly - but seriously what a fooking eejit your man is, head in hands man. You could have two months holiday for that, instead hes going to baseball bat a car for half in hour, in the cold in Ireland. Mug. Obviously not saying I'd vote for Fianna Fail now, actually no idea who to vote for, I'd go for the ones who seem to have the best ideas for the future rather than just acting on the past because the past is the past sure it wont change, sometimes I wish I was an economic and political expert like everyone else though..

Another thing, I said too I was thinking about moving to Thailand (was only an idea when I saw how cool the houses were), no one thought to tell me gambling is illegal there FFS, I did feel a tad stupid, not the first time anyway. And I have been inundated with ladyboy jokes, yep, and have such withdrawn my idea (you want to see the villa though), and obviously having an other half that doesnt have a great big cock is an advantage in life you know, so we'll leave that there, not voting for Thailand..

Irish Betting Tax Online

2011-01-21T17:13:00.003Z

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0121/breaking49.html?via=rel

Betting tax extended to online operators

CHARLIE TAYLOR

A plan to apply betting tax to online bookmakers is among the provisions included in the Finance Bill, which has been published today.

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan announced in the Budget last December that the Government intended to extend the existing 1 per cent levy on betting turnover in bookmakers to online operators such as Irish-owned Paddy Power and Boylesports, who have previously been exempt from the charge.

The measure is expected to raise about €20 million extra in a full year.

Betting exchanges such as Betfair, which allow people to make bets with other customers online, are to be made liable to a "betting intermediary duty" at the rate of 15 per cent of the commission they receive from punters in Ireland.

A number of commercial lawyers had previously warned that the move to apply betting tax to online operators could force bookmakers to move offshore if they did not also apply to those who offer online betting but are based outside of Ireland.

Mr Lenihan has indicated that he is considering a licensing system for such operators.

The regulatory changes outlined in the Finance Bill are to be provided for through separate legislation amending the Betting Act 1931.

-----

Seems like were grand from a tax on Betfair trades point of view (which was the ultimate feared disaster), and me spending time looking for a villa in Thailand was time wasted (although the places are amazing for €300 per two and a half months, unreal!).

I'm guessing Betfair will agree (unless they havent already) but given our that Government and HRI (who will be spending the money I presume) are a shower of useless twats who cant be relied upon, we shall see.

Youve got to be happy enough theyve had the cop on not to tax every bet on the exchanges though.

Ladbrokes Now..

2011-01-21T15:26:00.003Z

Going 5/6 over 250, can lay it on Betfair at 1.5, thats nice of them :)

Saffers end on 265, fairly big rick by them that, normally they all just follow Betfair sure. Happy they covered the line for €100 though because I lost €150 on Eng making a meal of their innings this morning.

Still A Struggle

2011-01-16T18:50:00.007Z

However, at least I didnt lose..! Profit this week reads €2.12, now, I know I'd earn more if I was a small Indian boy making shoes in a Mumbai sweatshop, BUT, I have decided to press on with the gambling, and come forward, and do whats best for me.. *insert any oul Brian Cowen rambling point here* and so forth on. Cant believe I wasted half an hour of my life watching that press conference, nothing happened FFS. Heavily odds on he passes the motion of confidence on Tuesday too IMO.

Anyway, what the feck is it about Saffers v India I cant get right..!?

Last five games have gone..
-€85 (tests)
-€290
-€2 (only T20)
-€126 (ODIs)
-€142

I give up. Undoubtedly the worst series I've ever had, and theres three games left! Giving them a miss? Check. I've no idea what I'm doing wrong, it must be something you know, but I just cant get a read on them at all. Yesterdays game was fairly amazing scenes alright with India winning by one run, and Saffers trading 1.01 and beaten, but even so I was awe-red before that, and indeed had more red on India.. one run, head in hands man..

Compare that with Aus v Eng which has been going great, and produces a healthy win of €250. Eng threw away the second T20 in fairness though, I had -€50 Aus +€150 Eng, only for them to lose by 4 runs and after getting the rate down so low it was a real kick in the teeth. Thought about getting out when Aus hit 1.3 or so but Morgan was still there and thought it was actually a good lay at the time so ended up just leaving it, really lost it in the middle overs though.

On the ODI front, its obvious from the first game this morning (and the T20s too I suppose) the teams are far more evenly matched over limited overs compared to the tests. All games from here are a coin toss IMO and should be priced 2 v 2 or Aus slight favs you could argue because home advantage, and history says the losing team normally wins the ODI series. Engs bowling looks a bit weak though bar Swann, Tremlett doesnt look an ODI bowler, who'd have thought the day I'd say they miss Broad. But Aus are much the same really and it looks like the batters should be well on top every game (unless pitches are very bowler friendly obviously) and every game will be close IMO bar total collapses.

I had thoughts of taking next week off just to forget about gambling and refresh, just take a break you know yourself, but then I thought well if it wasnt for Saffers v India I'd be winning last week, and nearly €300 in profit this week. So I'm not in terrible touch and in need of a break, just seems I cant do anything with those two teams against each other. The thing that drains confidence away is theyre really bad markets too, healthy awe-reds €150ish and no good trading moves, me being fairly risk adverse I have to be really bad to lose those amounts consistently, I go for the accumulation of money rather than the out-and-out attack version, so to keep losing there must be something amiss with what I'm doing. And I dont know what it is either, so I cant correct it you know.

Apart from that though, everything has been A-1, avoid Saf v Ind and I'll be grand. (I hope!) Its not a hard thing to change though (avoid three games) and it is blatantly obvious, not like the time I had to go running though P&Ls for hours with the horse in-running/pre-off thing.

Sad to see Kauto Star finish third yesterday when going for his 5th KG, ah I think at this stage age has caught up with him looking at him having to be helped along so far out. The days of cruising along are behind him it seems, and its bitterly disappointing given what he was against. Taking nothing away from Long Run, beforehand you'd have said Kauto was miles better, and indeed was miles clear on ratings - I think Kauto of last year would have beaten him (and easily). Erm, dont wanna be overreacting, but I'd retire him now after that, my view is what actual chance does he have of winning at Cheltenham? Very little I would say after being beaten so well, and with the falls hes had there in past I'd look after him and not run, the KG is normally "his" race and to run so poor, I think hes served us enough and he should be looked after now. Kempton was his gaf more so than Cheltenham was, so I'd read far more into a poor run there than the Gold Cup last year.

I read on Twitter from Paul Nicholas that hes going straight to the Gold Cup and he bleed a little after the race, he thinks it was maybe the second last that did it, but even so he was beaten turning in really and 8+ on Betfair by that stage. He didnt jump or travel like he normally does, I have no real problem with them running him again sure he is a racehorse after all, I'd just be of the opinion that hes done so much for them already and to run so poorly in his favourite race, I'd call it a day. We shall see.

09/01/2011

2011-01-09T20:37:00.004Z

A €200+ losing week (just over, €211) this week, first one in a good while.

The Saffer v India test was just a disaster, just couldnt call the market moves right at all..

At one stage the draw went from around 3.4 to 2.5 in less than five minutes, and it wasnt even the 5th day, I was sitting here wondering what the fook was going on! Having said that, it did finish a draw in the end, and I spent most of the test laying it, so having +€300 both results and -€300 the draw would have made little difference really, it was just one of those really bad markets though. You know I dont even have anything to take from it for the future, just couldnt call a thing right. Real confidence drainer. I lost €85 on the last test too, glad the series is over.

The Aus T20 Big Bash was the exact same although I was saved - was €250ish awe-red (terrible for a T20 FFS), the markets at 1.03, in comes Pollard.. BOOM its 1.5 the other side and I'm €40 awe-green. I went from "Fook sake. Fooking hate January. Fook Betfair at this time of the year." to "YEEEHAA, whos the daddy!" in about 20 minutes, mood swings eh, I've never felt more like a woman. Dont get me wrong its nice when those things happen, but it doesnt feel too great afterwards - I'm saved rather than doing something right, I'll take it though.

The Ashes finished zero, absolutely delighted Eng won though, brilliant. The Pak test finished +€75 which was the only thing I've done right this week, another T20 finished -€45 and today I went from €60ish green to losing €2. Its been a difficult week, I havent ventured away from cricket apart from the BDO darts final, just want a market to go 'right' for a bit of confidence you know, not even that pushed to have a winner like just a few right calls and I'll be away in a hack again.

I did my usual after the Saffer test mind, withdrew to leave around €300/400 in the account (normally have around 1k or so), and just rebuild with that, thats been alright, and since then the Pak test I was level green and the darts I was level green too, others have been jittery - I literally spent the whole five days having a mare on the Saffer market so that bit of doubting what I'm doing comes in - no worse thing for me.

Having said that, take out the Saffer market and I'd be +€80, which would be grand for winter considering all I want to do is get through to summer. Winning/Losing doesnt really tend to bother me in general, its the way it happens that bothers me, being saved by Pollard meant it wasnt minus near €600 for the week so its *felt* worse than losing just over €200 - which isnt really bad anyway.

Anyway, thy lord giveth the luck and thy lord taketh away.. I was sitting on one of a ray of fantastic Dublin Buses in our capital minding my own business on the way home on Tuesday, when on gets a 50-something wino woman (get a good image of a homeless smelly wino woman there) and sits herself down beside me, it being the most handy seat. The bus is packed at peak time, shes having a can and singing to herself, and I'm looking out the window trying to avoid eye-contact. Shes completely locked now, and loud. After 10 minutes, she turns to me, totally unaware the whole bus is quiet and can hear, and inquiries "Are you an escort, only ya look familiar?" "No, I am not, sorry" "Only ya have that escort randy glint in your eyes, I've seen you before" and turns to the people across the other side "doesnt he, doesnt he have the randy glint" before proceeding to slap me on the leg and roar out "ahh-haa I'd riiide ya for a fiver" and laughing hysterically to herself. Head in hands man, I get that bus every week FFS.

02/01/2011

2011-01-02T23:15:00.004Z

Ah, Mark Webster, had three darts at tops to hold his throw and try take it to a decider, missed and I get €9 instead of €340. Head in hands man. Cant complain even though highly annoying, he had three clean shots, its not as if he didnt get the chances.

Thats basically been my week, hit and miss, I've had some serious rides on the darts markets, I must have aged about 6 years this week! A €7.50 loss is alright considering some of the games, Whitlock, Nicholson and Taylor losing, Jenkins winning, the King market where he lost.. they were all impossible to call at times. I think Anderson will win the final, but he has a history of bottling it, I really dont fancy Lewis though, and really thought Webby would do him there, cant miss that many doubles though.

Leopardstown was excellent for the three days, in terms of craic not money, I wasnt really betting on Betfair, did have a few bets but ended up level. I didnt back him at 1/4 but really disappointed Zaidpour was beaten because he looked a serious horse from Fairyhouse - maybe it came too quickly for him after, we had snow both sides of Fairyhouse too, and Golden Sliver and Mikael D'haguenet were beaten as well, both ran the same day as Zaidpour. Hurricane Fly won but he looks a machine in fairness, although the Cheltenham hill does worry me slightly - considering what price he'll be, the decision today not to run Solwhit (well thats what Charles said anyway, if you believe him like!) is baffling really IMO, Go Native is out, Dunguib has questions, Hurricane Fly has the hill question, Binoculars had a bad run this year. A horse of Solwhits quality should surely be running in the CH, but as I said on Twitter, maybe Charles wants 1000 for a trade.

Not much trading on last weeks Ashes test, won €40, lost €80 on the Saffer-India test then on the last day, it was a swinger and I was on the wrong end of a few trades.. one of those turn off the laptop days at the time, -€80 wasnt the worst result for how bad it was really.

5th test is about to start as a type and its a horrible one IMO because obviously the draw is a series win for Eng, I hate these situations.. apparently its a bowl first pitch, then Aus won the toss and batted, so I have no idea atm, sneaky feeling for a draw but clearly not backing at the odds. So far the team batting on the first day has been bowled out day one in every test, so we'll see..