Friday, April 3, 2009

Aintree Friday Preview

Brilliant card again today in Liverpool, everything seems priced up well this morning and its not easy to guess what the Cheltenham winners will run like.

American Trilogy 2.00 Aintree.
Was so impressive at Cheltenham, still cant believe Ruby rode at 20/1 winner, that almost never happens! I actually think todays race looks harder than the one he won the last day, at 3/1 on Betfair at the moment I'll pass on backing him. He looks the most likely winner but I dont know much about the horses taking him on so its a no bet for me.

Herecomesthetruth 2.35 Aintree and Siegemaster 2.35 Aintree.
Their way out of line with the price of Herecomesthetruth, 9/4 seems at good price to me. He missed Cheltenham to come here and I like that idea, another thing too is that he didnt seem to like Cheltenham at all when he ran there, refusing at the last when upsides, he went back and put things right there but he jumped a little right the whole way around. It was the correct thing to do to miss the festival and come here instead, hes one of the best novices around and I think he'll take all the beating here.
I havent backed Herecomesthetruth yet, only one reason why, and thats Siegemaster. Massive fan of this fella and if he can get his jumping together 10/1 is a fantastic each way price. God hes a terrible jumper at times though, and he might not like the ground either, the trip will be fine but its just wether he has the pace to go with them jumping on this ground.

Scotsirish 3.10 Aintree 1pt e/w at 22/1 with William Hill.
Took 25/1 in the shops this morning, its not hard to see why people want to back him. He has everything right today, Ruby on board, the trip and the ground. He'll absolutely love this ground, go back to his race at Punchestown last year over 2m5f on good ground, came from the clouds only to win easily enough in the end by 4L, 22/1 is too big today. Take out the favourite Voy Por Ustedes and its a wide open race. He was staying on behind Master Minded at Cheltenham before meeting a bit of trouble when a horse fell in front of him, this is his trip and ground today. Hes been running over 2 miles on heavy ground all winter and still managed to win a race, he had Schindlers Hunt miles behind that day too. He has the right man on board, but I hope Ruby doesnt over do the waiting tactics and not leave it too late to challenge, if he gets into the position and going well enough to do so but I think he'll go close today. 5/1 to place on Betfair might be the way to go but I like the 22/1 with William Hill, nice to see hes being well backed too, always a good sign with the Mullins stable when theres moneys for one of his.

Karabak 4.20 Aintree and Weapons Amnesty 4.20 Aintree.
Karabak deserves to be favourite here, notice hes being backed too and 2/1 seems fair enough. The extra distance will help him here I think, but will the course suit him. He seemed to me to look a real battler at Cheltenham but with Aintree being such a flat track you have to wonder will speed come into it more here. I think hes the most likely winner but at 2/1 I'll sit and watch.
Weapons Amnesty is a fantastic horse, and I hope he wins this. Done me a real favour winning at Cheltenham, one thing to remember about him is he is a hard ride and does nothing in front, he has to perfect jockey to cope with that though. I'd be worried about the test of stamina today though, and he may just get out paced in the finish, I'm not sure. Will Pride Of Dulcote improve past them, cant answer that either. A race to watch for me.

Overall, a nice card but very hard to be 100% sure of backing a winner, Scotsirish might be my only bet. Not sure wether to back him to place on Betfair or each way at 22/1, I have a think about it. Should be a nice day for in running, one point for yesterday I noticed was horses arent making up a lot of ground from the back, might be something to keep in mind. Hopefully they all come back safely, yesterday was a terrible day with Denman falling when upsides and Exotic Dancer having a heart attack.
In the bumper got a little bit of a word for Liss Na Tintri 5.30 Aintree coming over from Ireland and it will be interesting to see how she goes, couldnt back her at 13/2 on form anyway!

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