Tuesday, June 28, 2011

New Betfair Premium Charge

Oh dear, oh dear, a possible high of 60% tax on winnings?

This is on the site:

From 18th July 2011 Betfair will be making some changes to the Premium Charge. The current Premium Charge mechanism will remain in place but higher rates may now apply to a small number of customers (less than 0.1% of annual active customers).

Full details of the changes can now be found on the Betfair Charges page under the About Us section of the website. However, the changes can be summarised as follows:

• Customers will only be subject to Premium Charges at higher rates if they satisfy all of the following conditions:

o Lifetime net profits* exceed £250,000
o Lifetime commission generated less than 40% of lifetime gross profits
o Bet in more than 1,000 markets

• Customers that satisfy all of the above conditions will be asked to pay Premium Charges at rates between 40% and 60% on all future exchange activity.

All customers that will be affected by these changes have already been contacted.

And many people have got this too:

The Premium Charge rate applied to each customer that satisfies these conditions is dependent on their lifetime commission generated to gross profits ratio. The exact rate will be determined by the following table:

Lifetime commission generated
to gross profits ratio Applicable Premium Charge rate
< 5% 60%
5% - 10% 50%
> 10% 40%


Because of my age, I've not reached €250k from Betfair yet - although one day I hope to, that'll probably be the same day I'll have to leave. I'm also sure (being realistic) that not many will have won €250k net profit, they do point out its less than 0.1% of annual users.

The main issues will be it is unbelievably bad PR, and the biggest issue is how will liquidity be effected because obviously the big players will be effected (the 100k lumps we love to see).

I'm not really sure how it will turn out myself. We shall see.

(Hello Betdaq, if youre reading this, can you please get off your fucking arse and create some competition, thanks!)

Monday, June 27, 2011


Was this really a free?

Fuck it anyway. I suppose theres no point me crowing and complaining about it because I'm obviously bias towards Kildare, everyone can see for themselves.

Lovely day in Croker yesterday, sun was shining, proper Championship football, two good sides, fair game.. and then the Ref has to go and do something like that. I felt awful sorry for the players because to be six points down at half time and comeback to level was an amazing performance, I know were a second half team but you have to think to yourself about winning 'are Kildare 7 points better than Dublin over 35 minutes of football' the answer is no more times than not, so to end up level with a minute to go - fantastic stuff. Unfortunately got a proper slap in the face from the Ref but my initial reaction was "what do you expect against Dublin?"

Draw or lose was irrelevant in gambling terms but gutted all the same - no one likes to lose like that. But anyway, another trip to Portlaoise on July 9th, its a nice little spot for an afternoon and weve been there already this year. As seen with Louth last year though when you get fecked over by refs its harder to bounce back and win in the Qualifiers than when you just lose from not being good enough, at least you can accept that.

I had plenty of bets over the weekend, London PPs +€420, Westmeath Betfair -€150, Mayo Betfair +€400 and Kildare Betfair -€270. I finish +€400 so that feels good, I'd swap that for a Kildare draw though. London winning was great because I had talked a few people into backing that. I had wanted to back Mayo with Ladbrokes..

However 80c is far too rich for me. I'd be sweating like Wayne Rooney in a bingo hall with a liability like that.

I ended up with an alright win on the Test match in the end, but not the one I wanted. The weather forecast improved, so the draw moved from 1.6 to 2.2 overnight, which left me with this:

And I thought I was collecting that. But England were dismal, very disappointing, and I finished tail firmly between legs with this:

That feels like years ago, Sri Lanka walloped them at T20 on Saturday, the ODIs should be fairly good and even - hopefully good for the market bouncing around.

Haye v Klitschko is on Saturday night which I'm looking forward to. No strong opinion on the winner, I like Haye because hes good banter but if someone was giving me €500 to pick the winner I'd pick Klitschko. The fight to go the distance is around 5/2, maybe if Haye takes the same approach as he did against Valuev that could look OK, probably the best time for Haye to win is rounds 1-6 and then the opposite for Klitschko 7-12 will be his time. Both have suspect chins but I'm not sure that it'll turn into an all out brawl, I think it'll be a bit cagey.

The buildup will be fantastic anyway, "Why dont you like Klitschko?" "Because hes clearly a dickhead" HA, class, Klitschko looks really wound up towards the end too.

(EDIT 8-12PM).. Just clocked William Hill have gone 7/2 Haye v Klitschko to go the distance. Big price if you can get it IMO. Even if you dont fancy it can lay at sub 3/1 on Betfair.

Sunday, June 19, 2011


Very quiet week this week.

Royal Ascot was a bit of a blow out from watching the first race, Betfair suspended about half a furlong from the line on BBC - credit to them for suspending so early however as we all know they dont do it on 'normal' days on ATR. Then obviously Ascot being an ATR track itself I was well behind there too, and you know youre fucked when betting off ATR is your best option, or the 'least worst' option anyway. I gave up after Tuesday €14 ahead and thought I might as well get out before damage is done.

I had an awkward time on the India v Windies games too, India collapsed in a heap on Monday, and Windies managed to chase 10+ an over for a fair while on Thursday. I think both times India were sub 1.2.

And then I've been doing the 3rd Test match since then, Sri Lanka are 90/2 in their second innings still 103 behind. Apparently theres bad weather tomorrow but I cant control that really, just be aware of it. I have minor red on the draw and €600ish green on England - it could bounce around tomorrow, either that or its a straight 1.01 train with rain, but I dont trust the Lankans so I'm happy enough to have whatever green I have all on England and if the weather says its a draw so be it.

No bet on the golf with Tiger missing (its not the same without him for me), but I really hope Rory wins, especially after what happened at The Masters and how he handled himself after it.

In other news, Wimbledon starts tomorrow..

Monday, June 13, 2011

Making Life Easier

Its not often Betfair gets a bit of praise but the new market navigation update is fantastic, feels 100 times smoother than the last one and makes it easier to move around the site, which is the way everything should be - easy!

Not that its important but it looks far cooler than the last one too.

A Betfair update that is actually an improvement, has this ever happened before..!? Amazing scenes.

Sunday, June 12, 2011


An odd week this week, Monday and Tuesday didnt go well but the rest of week was very good. I managed to royally feck up my book on the 2nd Test to "only" win €25 - having been just short of €900 green on the actual outcome on Sunday evening. I went for the draw lay after 8 wickets fell in one session, it did bounce to 1.35ish after I laid 1.2, but 9 balls later it was back to 1.2 and I thought that was pretty poor so let it run, unwisely in hindsight but at the time I was happy enough so no complaints.

After much, and I stress much, faffing about during the last session I finished like this:

Naturally a small bit disappointed not to win having been in a €800 awe-green position (without actually clicking to go green, Test cricket moving slowly meant I had oceans of time to do it if I wanted to). But sure the long and short of it is, I make decisions and rightly or wrongly I take responsibility for those decisions and back them, theres not much else to it really. Every bet I make, I make it because at the time I was happy so criticisms are only with hindsight, I'm experienced enough at this stage not to be a total gobshite, and to cop it when I've been one - but even if I make a mistake I'd much rather take the responsibility for it and accept it rather than go around blaming anyone and everyone in the world, IMO its a far more mentally strong position. Obviously I'm wrong plenty of times but its no ones fault bar my own, life goes on and the world doesnt end.

You know once I'm happy, who cares. Its the same with everyone else, once your happy with what youve done who gives a feck if anyone disagrees - thats why Betfair was invented in the first place. Anyway, the more people who disagree with you, the bigger the price you get (in theory).

Say over the year you get 20 days of advice, nice round number, so that leaves you with 345 days on your own. Of course you can put into practice the advice given - but its up to the individual with no one to hold your hand, so it all comes down to being happy yourself with what youre doing, people will obviously comment on your bets but picture during a 5F race when you have less than a second to decide Back/Lay, good odds or bad odds, that just has to come naturally 99% of the time to the person. And when youre even learning that, you have learn yourself, go through everything yourself.

I still cant come up with a sane (if that the right word to use) reason why people argue over what is "value." Everyone is quite obviously going to be different.

Anyway, a strong enough finish to the week with India trading odds against twice, market hated them 2nd ODI for some reason, Windies were matched at sub 1.2 3rd ODI but rightly so with India 6 down for 90ish, they ended up winning though so that was a great momentum trade match, next partnership put on 90 runs so the market was always edging out as we went along.

The Test match probably didnt work in my favour putting all my green on the outcome I favour but then it works for me so many other times. There are times when I think I should go equal but I think the main thing is always preservation of capital and not losing, once I'm in a position of not losing thats the main thing, no damage done. The funny thing is I go equal red faster than I go equal green..!

Lastly, very sad to hear about Brian Lenihan passing away on Friday. Normally the news headlines just wash over my head but he was my favourite politician and the only man in The Dáil I genuinely liked. I suppose he'll be remembered for being Minster for Finance during the worst recession Ireland has ever had but I always thought he spoke sense and I could always understand where he was coming from when he was trying (I say trying because normally everyone was heckling him) to explain things. I always had great time for him anyway and he made me more interested in politics (before realising its a mugs game and you cant win no matter what you say to people), and hes contributed €200 to the challenge when I backed him to get his seat back this year too. Cancer is a horrible thing, RIP.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Change Is Good

No surprises to see Mickael Barzalona get a bit of stick for his Derby celebrations, looking at them crossing the line I thought it was an amazing sight - something different and interesting - Usain Bolt like almost. Horse racing is a bit of an old mans game, anything thats different gets knocked, and you could argue its all about the horse and nothing else - but then I would argue why are bookmakers moving away from horse racing as their flagship number one earner? Why are attendances down without having concerts after racing? Why do you even need concerts after racing if its just about the horse? We need more Mickael Barzalonas and people like this, more amazing scenes please. Ask any normal person to name a jockey and Frankie Dettori will be odds on for your answer, not because hes the best jockey, but because he jumps off the horse and hes different, people remember different.

Anyway as for the race, no complaints with Recital. He had Pour Moi and Carlton House in or around him for a good bit of the race and both finished ahead so cant really complain. Obviously it was a massive blow not to have Fallon, that sort of thing would ONLY happen Fallon! Newspapers must love him. If you were to run the race again, I'd have him in the middle rather than towards the back, however the plan was to hold him up anyway thats just hindsight. The winner won well although I believe it was 3secs or something (only what someone has said to me, didnt check myself) slower than last years so it remains to be seen how good the form is. Delighted St Nic got up on Friday though, woooosh, hes still getting a bit of stick but I'm of the opinion that if he was trained by someone else he wouldnt get half the stick he does, I'm very happy anyway because people keep giving us odds against - although I suppose he has to bump into So You Think or Workforce soon. Really nice to see him put the head down and get the job done though, apparently hes a dog - hes a montjeu, hes relatively normal.

In hindsight, and even at the time, the Guineas over a mile on fast ground, first run of the season was never going to be his day. Obviously being favourite and losing seems to be where the "bad" reputation has come from, fair enough he was terrible at The Curragh first time this season but you can always forgive an APOB first time out. I think hes just going to be one of these horses now that no matter what he does he wont get much credit for it, he certainly deserves to be near top of the market in all the top 1M4F races this season anyway.

Anyway, my beloved Kildare won today, kicked 18 wides and still managed to win by 6 points - although I accept Meaths "goal" wasnt a square ball (but unless you use video technology these things will always happen) and the red card was harsh.. but we still controlled midfield and if the forwards didnt miss so much it would have been far more impressive. Dublin beat Laois too, so we meet them in the semis, Dubs are 1/2 to win Leinster so I'm assuming they'll be around that price to beat Kildare so, or under it even. Possibly a bit early in the season to be meeting, the more games Kildare play the better they get - I wouldnt be backing us - 18 wides with no wind or rain is an awful stat and it takes a lot to beat Dublin in Croker this early in the season. Wait until the semi final of the All Ireland, thats when we'll 'av 'em.

I have all my money on the draw going into day 4 of the 2nd Test tomorrow - theres a first time for everything..! My tactics at the start - if Sri Lanka batted back Eng and if Eng batted back the draw at around 3.3, then when Eng were 20/3 I was thinking what sort of a feckin' eejit am I, although as a long term play it would have worked out very well, it wasnt meant to work like that though, SL 200/0 wasnt factored into my thinking - I had dumped the position during the Eng innings anyway. By the time Lanka came out to bat Eng were 1.5 having recovered from 20/3 to get 480ish, 1.5 was a solid enough lay if you could trust SL after Cardiff, I waited a bit, they were near 40/0 and laid Eng at 1.58ish and just momentum traded the price all the way out, laying more so than backing. Tomorrow will be day 4 and were still in the 1st innings so unless one side collapse its hard to see a result, the pitch is pretty flat atm anyway, Eng need Anderson back badly, struggling to see how SL can blow Eng away with the ball in a hurry too - its just one of those things if it happens I'll hold my hands up and say well done, dont mind taking it on (cue Eng all out for 100 Tuesday).

Can we have a Test match every week please?