Sunday, June 12, 2011


An odd week this week, Monday and Tuesday didnt go well but the rest of week was very good. I managed to royally feck up my book on the 2nd Test to "only" win €25 - having been just short of €900 green on the actual outcome on Sunday evening. I went for the draw lay after 8 wickets fell in one session, it did bounce to 1.35ish after I laid 1.2, but 9 balls later it was back to 1.2 and I thought that was pretty poor so let it run, unwisely in hindsight but at the time I was happy enough so no complaints.

After much, and I stress much, faffing about during the last session I finished like this:

Naturally a small bit disappointed not to win having been in a €800 awe-green position (without actually clicking to go green, Test cricket moving slowly meant I had oceans of time to do it if I wanted to). But sure the long and short of it is, I make decisions and rightly or wrongly I take responsibility for those decisions and back them, theres not much else to it really. Every bet I make, I make it because at the time I was happy so criticisms are only with hindsight, I'm experienced enough at this stage not to be a total gobshite, and to cop it when I've been one - but even if I make a mistake I'd much rather take the responsibility for it and accept it rather than go around blaming anyone and everyone in the world, IMO its a far more mentally strong position. Obviously I'm wrong plenty of times but its no ones fault bar my own, life goes on and the world doesnt end.

You know once I'm happy, who cares. Its the same with everyone else, once your happy with what youve done who gives a feck if anyone disagrees - thats why Betfair was invented in the first place. Anyway, the more people who disagree with you, the bigger the price you get (in theory).

Say over the year you get 20 days of advice, nice round number, so that leaves you with 345 days on your own. Of course you can put into practice the advice given - but its up to the individual with no one to hold your hand, so it all comes down to being happy yourself with what youre doing, people will obviously comment on your bets but picture during a 5F race when you have less than a second to decide Back/Lay, good odds or bad odds, that just has to come naturally 99% of the time to the person. And when youre even learning that, you have learn yourself, go through everything yourself.

I still cant come up with a sane (if that the right word to use) reason why people argue over what is "value." Everyone is quite obviously going to be different.

Anyway, a strong enough finish to the week with India trading odds against twice, market hated them 2nd ODI for some reason, Windies were matched at sub 1.2 3rd ODI but rightly so with India 6 down for 90ish, they ended up winning though so that was a great momentum trade match, next partnership put on 90 runs so the market was always edging out as we went along.

The Test match probably didnt work in my favour putting all my green on the outcome I favour but then it works for me so many other times. There are times when I think I should go equal but I think the main thing is always preservation of capital and not losing, once I'm in a position of not losing thats the main thing, no damage done. The funny thing is I go equal red faster than I go equal green..!

Lastly, very sad to hear about Brian Lenihan passing away on Friday. Normally the news headlines just wash over my head but he was my favourite politician and the only man in The Dáil I genuinely liked. I suppose he'll be remembered for being Minster for Finance during the worst recession Ireland has ever had but I always thought he spoke sense and I could always understand where he was coming from when he was trying (I say trying because normally everyone was heckling him) to explain things. I always had great time for him anyway and he made me more interested in politics (before realising its a mugs game and you cant win no matter what you say to people), and hes contributed €200 to the challenge when I backed him to get his seat back this year too. Cancer is a horrible thing, RIP.

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