You'd have to feel a little (I said a little) bit sorry for draw backers. Sri Lanka bowled out for 82, after getting 400 first knock and with all the rain, is just incredible.
I bottled it a bit trading after laying 1.03, when I laid 1.03 I was actually hoping to have the chance to green at 1.1 or so, not have Eng winning! Although when it started to go I should have held longer.
It begs the age old question, is it really 'worth it' backing 1.01 or laying 1000 (Eng got matched at 1000 too). Just leaving aside the actual thinking of odds for a moment, even if you make it a 1/1,000 chance - is it still 'worth it' backing 1/100? I mean, if you have the €1,000 why do you need the tenner?
Obviously this is easy said after the event, but any number of 1.01s have been turned over at the French Open this week - Sport Is Made For Betting has most of the screen shots and 1/100 was turned over in GAA yesterday.
The only argument for it is the "well would you back 1/100 day becomes night?" But again just leaving that aside, if you have the €5k do you need the €50? Personally I wouldnt go around laying every 1.01 but backing it is insane IMO.
When I was down in the IFSC trading room, a figure of four 1.01s out of every 100 on horse racing were turned over, that was by someone who has worked in Betfair - the main problem was getting matched - as every time a market was set up (or opened) by Betfair bets would be fired in by bots in seconds to be first in the queue, so those stats never applied to the average person sitting there with a laptop.
The worst thing about lumping on short odds (and not being a millionaire) is it only takes one bad day at the office, and you never know when its coming..
Roger Charlton's Website At HTD
3 hours ago