08/11/2009

Just back from Navan, good day, good racing. Catch Me at the last though, sick! Started off poorly, down €350 after three races but then rattled off a string of wins.. €300 on Operation Houdini at 6/4, €300 on Made In Taipan W/O Big Zeb at 4/5, €300 on Osana at 8/11 and €250 on Morning Supreme in Limerick at 8/15. On a complete roll banging in the winners, books open up 4/6 on Catch Me, had to have all the profit for the day on, €600 and €200 for challenge too, takes it up coming to the last and the rest is history. Sick. Thats racing sure and jumpings the name of the game I know, but you know well, everyone knows what its like to have a last fence faller. He didnt jump all to well the whole way around actually but if he was going to fall I'd rather it not when leading at the last, happy he got up though thats the important thing. Could of been worse, could of lost on the day, but what could have been! Mirrored everything on course for the challenge only smaller.

Horse Racing: €15.65 Total P&L: €15.65

Catch Me falling at the last pretty much sums up my week you know. €300 loss on India to chase down 250 and they fall apart, next game I have €400 green on them and they lose five wickets in the last three overs to completely throw it away (traded 1.04) and Catch Me falling at the last. Probably been unlucky with all of them. The other horse losses, I've no excuse for you know I was just wrong, Rip Van Winkle etc, it happens and its no bother, this is life. Just needed a bit of luck elsewhere on the cricket that I didnt get, one of does weeks I felt cursed at times actually but still cant really blame luck you know its hard to describe. Few wins with the books have kept me going though so its not as bad as the Betfair P&L, although I rate that as the main one and want that to be in profit each week. Its felt like an awfully long hard week.

Havent watched the X-Factor this week either so wont bet on it tonight, Jedward are too high to lay bottom two anyway, really tempting to lay Lloyd at 1.4ish because I think he has a fair following, hes shite though and they never voted for him last week. I reckon he wont be in the bottom two but not betting on it, been gambling all weekend and neglecting Emma a bit so a night off is due. Best thing to happen this weekend was Man City drawing, if Liverpool win (touch wood) Monday, Last Man Standing will be down to the last 30ish and I'll still be there. Off college all next week too, so it'll be different and will have more time for Betfair, which is the way I like it.

This week though, basically just backed losers and been a tad unlucky when I needed to be lucky, but I havent chased once, and you know I can only keep going and keep doing what I'm normally doing. Actually not disappointed at all because I did everything "right" in my head, was just woeful at picking a few winners! Its odds on you'll be wrong more times than youre right gambling so gotta take it on the chin and keep the head calm.

07/11/2009

Absolutely gutted with Rip, no excuses either stopped quickly and was beaten before they turned in. Er, I dont know, only just watched it, hes not THAT bad. In hindsight, probably could of done with the lasix, although dont think it would have made that much of a difference. Winner was awesome.

Only two bets today, Rip and Haye. I had him winning but you know what the judges are like over there, cant be too sure, Valuev was shite though barely even landed one punch. That said Haye wasnt throwing a lot either. Backed pre-fight with Boyles and then did the in running on Betfair, probably should have won a little bit more but was a bit nervy with it being in Germany. Cant complain.

Gutted after Rip, but anyway on to Navan tomorrow and an early start to get it out of the system.

Boxing: €97.10 | Horse Racing: -€250.00 Total P&L: -€152.90

A €130 winning day overall but it doesnt half feel like a losing one seeing all our horses bomb over there. I'd say the Betfair P&L will look like a total disaster for the week tomorrow evening too, but it hasnt been that bad I suppose, few winners with the books saving me. Onwards to tomorrow..!

06/11/2009

Look, look, look. An AWE-GREEN screen, finally, after two weeks, BOOOOOOOMM! One of those odd markets really, was heavy on Pakistan (twice) thinking there'd be a flip flop, it never came, but the market in ODI utterly loves partnerships, and even though the rate was going up all the time, the odds were coming down. I've my score card here, the rate went from 6 to just under 8, the odds went from 3.4 to 2.2, why? Because they only lost one wicket. Unlike most of my bets, I was definitely squaring up rather than leaving all the green on the chasing team. If the rate was coming down, or at least staying the same, I'd have left the green on Pakistan, or not even traded out.


















Horses P&L was a small bit disappointing, had a winner in Down Royal, and a couple of successful lays (Ruby in the main race being the most important), and then gave all the profit back on Lillie in America, no excuse for her either. Absolutely delighted Man Of Iron won so I cant complain. The wife was beaten too (Go Native), obviously a shock to completely shake the racing world when the greatest horse of all time loses, couldnt pick up on the ground and giving weight, sure even I didnt back him and love is blind. Only a minor blip on the way to Champion Hurdle success in March!

Boxing - couldnt make up my mind. What a tear up between Rogan and Sexton. I switched about 4 or 5 times, ended up level on both, cant tell you how because I've no clue myself.

Boxing: -€0.24 | Cricket: €99.01 | Horse Racing: €13.78 Total P&L: €112.55

I have one request for tomorrow, Man City not to beat Burnley, oh what it'd do for Last Man Standing. I'm on Liverpool, brave or what, c'mon Rafa!

05/11/2009

Its official, I'm cursed until further notice it appears. Cant get anything to happen for me, and this one really, really, really hurt.






That game was absolutely made for me, massive total to chase, brilliant flat true pitch, weak bowlers, just kept laying Australia after a wicket fell. Leave €400 on India, few minutes later their trading 1.04 with three overs to go on 332/6 with Sachin there on 175, cue a total collapse after he gets out, maybe not collapse they just totally fell apart, ended up all out for 347 with two balls to go chasing 350. The Jadeja run out, complete mug.

Go all green at 1.05ish you say? Its the way I play to leave it. On a good or bad run its what I normally do, when you cant get anything right though, you cant get anything right. That was a right kick in the balls given this little run of form, that €400 would of made a huge difference. Happy I traded out not to lose obviously, but you know, still gutted. I'd mentally GSM'd it.

Top knock by Sachin, what a player. Thats me goosed for the evening anyway though, even though I havent lost I cant bet again until tomorrow.

No craic Smullen closing the gap in Leopardstown today on Johnny either. 88-84 now.

04/11/2009

Hello. My name is Stephen. And I am a loser.

Havent had a winner of any substance since the 25th of October. Only one being Mourilyan who finished 3rd at 20/1 E/W, whos the daddy. I'm not feeling in bad form either like, I dont know, just struggle on without losing the head. Anyway, backed Carbs in the first a Fairyhouse today, really fancied it to win to be honest, was full sure I had the second favourite (turned out to be favourite) beaten and thought it looked like a total two horse race on paper, that sort of head to head bet. Both ended up getting beaten in the end. My one just wasnt good enough, simple as that. It only dawned on me after the race that I probably should have laid the one I didnt fancy instead of looking for something to beat it, but thats not my natural style, and anyway why do these things only come to you after the race? I love hindsight, its fantastic!

I realise I'm not picking winners so wont go mad, just kicked back and lay on the couch for the rest of the afternoon watching countdown on mute while listening to Michael Jackson, I dont care what anyone says, I love life. Oh, and er, I only watch countdown purely because its great for maths..

Dont wanna put the Indian sign on any of the runners in the Breeders Cup so I'll keep my mouth shut rather than call them certainties. To be honest though, I'm not lumping on any of them, I know zilch about the opposition so I wouldnt know what I was getting into you know. Same craic as before with Rip though, if he runs theres nothing wrong with him, and if he loses the foot problem will be the excuse. Viscount Nelson is working well but thats always been the case. While the others all have solid chances too, its probably the best "team" AP has ever sent over actually. Please god we get a few winners (or winner at least) anyway.

In other news, I bumped into Lady Gaga on Grafton street Tuesday while on route to college, shes asked for my number and obviously shes loaded so I'd be a fool not to. Were going to the cinema tomorrow, I'll report back if shes really a man or its just a rumor, taking one for the team..!

02/11/2009

Well, er, India, er, I dont know what to say. How do you not chase down 251? When par on the pitch is probably 300ish (or more), wicket was flat, and only one wicket was out from the ball hitting the stumps. I'm still here scratching my head how they lost actually, never mind eh.

The only possible reason, when I was doing the bet, for them not to win was too not bat out the overs, get a collapse whatever, but that didnt even happen! Every batsman got in, got to 15/20/30 and got out. What a bunch of wasters. I dont have a reason for losing like even after all this happened.. the run outs were terrible (Jadeja, I'll remember that clown), Juvraj and Dhoni running too Ponting, Tendulkar given out when he wasnt and few stupid shots, at least one of these things normally happens in a game but when it happens with every batsman, I dont know, not even angry because I still cant believe they managed to lose from 40-0 chasing 251! Only player I put no blame on is Harbhajan, rest were shite. It was quite possibly the worst 50/50 run chase I've ever been a part of.

The only thing good to come out of it, is the fact that I've a max bet rule in place, if I had €5,000 in the account, it would have been on them at 1.47, no doubt. It was a straight bet, no trading, decided before I did it, I've learned in games like this when I fancy a team so much not to trade, because obviously I'd keep laying the Aussies as their odds got shorter and shorter. Its not a nice feeling losing on something you class as a certainty you know but it happens I suppose. Withdrew money to have the Betfair balance at €200 and I'll bet with that until Saturday, I can sort feel I'm getting a few things wrong lately, throw in today being unlucky, not unlucky but you make your own luck you know. Just one of those times to bet small for a few days.

Have a screen shot of the run chase, still dont know how they lost, the rate never went over 6.7, and they took the Powerplay then, baffled how they lost. Theyve a good few overs with just two runs off them, I wasnt even bothered by that at the time because all they had to do was not get out, bat the overs they win. And I still dont know how they didnt.

One of those bets that I'd do tomorrow again so no complaints, just bet small for a few days because obviously I'm doing something wrong that I dont know about. Here I am only two days into the month and already down to guts of €500 like, having done nothing wrong in my view, just lost. I have to laugh, I was asking for more cricket to bet on yesterday, I even took the day off college to bet on it. Should of went to college, should of went to specsavers.

Cricket: -€300.00 Total P&L: -€300.00

The Melbourne Cup 2009

Its the race that stops a nation so I might as well have a guess at it..

Mourilyan E/W at 20s with Ladbrokes.

He had solid form when he was with Oxx and won two good races in Dubai, was then sold and it took them ages to get him right. Finally came back to good form this year, finished 2nd over 2M, then 4th over 1M5F when there was zilch pace on for him and Frankie made all the running on the winner, then won a listed race over 1M6F fairly easy in Goodwood. The last time he won a race, he won four in a row and then got a shocker off Mickey Joe to finish 2nd to end it, so he seems like one of those that puts in a row of good runs together, Ryan Moore has been riding though, the horse is a bit mad like, but he has a good turn of foot for a 1M6F - 2M horse and he likes good fast ground.

Ideally I want to him to be held up off a fast pace and then come flying without the horse thinking about what hes doing, never heard of the jockey so dont know if he can ride him like that you know, you sort of have to put him asleep for the first half and then be very strong with him at the finish. Hopefully he runs a good race for me anyway.