Monday, July 6, 2009

Roscommon Monday (Currently +32.6pts)

Good quality card tonight for a Monday evening, first thing this morning I was told that Prendergasts two year old Ejteyaaz in the first at 5-40 is an aeroplane. I wont be backing it though, I hate backing tips, I'm full sure if I backed every one I'd be skint and end up begging on Grafton Street. I'm seething here this morning as well, some Sky bloke woke me up at half 8 to say hes coming between 11 and 1 to fix the HD, now another bloke has just rang and said he'll be here between 3 and 5, bang goes my evening in Roscommon if hes not here early.

Anyway, I've gone for Von Jawlensky in the listed race at 6-40, this is a really good race for Roscommon standards, I'm quite impressed actually. This fella was so impressive at The Curragh on Derby weekend winning by 9L very, very easily, he stays all day so the step up in trip is an added plus. I would not want him held up to the last minute though, seamie! Even though it wasnt the strongest of maidens ever run at The Curragh the second has won since, and it was the type of performance that there was no second, the others didnt matter because he was so good. Massive danger is Alaivan, who was backed as if defeat was out of the question at The Curragh as well on Derby weekend, only to be chinned on the line by another Ballydoyle horse Grand Ducal, who wasnt at all fancied that day on his first run of the season. Alaivan has a lot of fans on The Curragh and around Kildare, more fans than Sea The Stars, and it all comes from his second run, when he won easily in Gowran Park over this trip, if he runs like that again he'll be very hard to beat. But from a value point of view, I'm more than happy with my 4/1 on Von Jawlensky, even though I could possibly see a good bit of support on course for Alaivan. Its a great race for a Monday evening!

Noticed this morning Sea The Stars has been rated the best horse in the world! First off, I dont know anything about ratings and never put any pass on them when looking at a race so my view isnt worth much. I do however think that its a tad excessive, I'm still slightly annoyed John Oxx didnt run at The Curragh, while the ground was the exact same as it was in Sandown. The rating of Rip Van Winkle as second best and best in ballydoyle, have they forgotten the Irish Derby winner is a few boxes up from him? Rip hasnt won a race this year and to be rated better than Fame And Glory confuses me an awful lot, anyway what do I know I suppose! I find it amazing though, that the same people who said Rip couldnt win are now saying how brilliant Sea The Stars is for being him. It doesnt make sense to me to see a horse who hasnt won a Group 1 yet rated so highly.

I always thought that 1M4F was the true test of a champion and I'd have wanted Sea The Stars to win the Irish Derby before being called the best since Nashwan, hes a fantastic horse dont get me wrong but while the press are falling over themselves to say how good he is, theres less of a feeling of greatness in Kildare about the horse, from people who are normally John Oxxes biggest fans because hes the local trainer. Its fairly easy to pick holes in his form, hes beaten Delegator over 1M who then got beaten out of sight at The Curragh, Fame And Glory over 1M4F when to be honest (massive aftertiming here) Ballydoyle got the tactics completely wrong there was words the next Tuesday morning after, anyone that says the form was franked at The Curragh is barking mad, and beaten Rip Van Winkle over 1M2F. Sea The Stars is the best this year currently, no doubt, fantastic horse, but is he the best for however many years. At the moment I wouldnt go that far.

Theres always going to be that question over 1M4F run like in was at The Curragh and did he dodge the Irish Derby, while personally I feel they did (although I thought it was the right call on Friday, the ground had dried out by Sunday a hell of a lot and they had no excuse then), I reckon the horse wont run over 1M4F again. He was good on Saturday, but while everyone was falling over themselves about him, I was quietly looking forward to the Irish Champion Stakes, I'm disappointed they wont take on Fame And Glory over 1M4F because theres no question in my mind who'd win, but we'll take our chances at 1M2F I suppose. Sea The Stars will win the International at York most likely, but I want to see him win at 1M4F again first and beat Fame And Glory in the Irish Champion before being put up there with the all time greats thats all, not too much to ask is it!

Anyway, back to today, been waiting ages to get €50 matched, wheres Elliott Short when you want him! Had to bring the odds down a tad to get the last few euro matched.

Von Jawlensky 6-40 Roscommon, 2pts win @ 7/2 on Betfair.

No comments:

Post a Comment