Saturday, January 9, 2010

You Know Youre On A Good Run When..

You get away with books like this..

I've been here a million times before, the usual, switching and swapping positions every few minutes, it never works for me. The problem was, Chizzy was banging in high scores to beat the band, then got down to a double and it was kaput, needed nearly 9 darts to hit it FFS! Once he settles hes the man though. First position was €77 on him at evens, I was left asking myself why oh why didnt I just stick with it. Once I lose trust in a player or team though, the market tends to be a shocker for me, you know the feeling when you think he'll win but dont trust him not to fook it up. Even at the break, 3-2 to O'Shea I had -€210ish O'Shea €72ish Chizzy, and had the €72 on O'Shea at 1.7 because I was uncomfortable looking at over €200 red, thought about going awe-red but then I thought Chizzy would win so left it with a birra hope and green one side, just so frustrating on the doubles. Of course once he started hitting them he absolutely ran away with the game, to get me out thankfully.

Confidence was a bit low after the first game so kept stakes small for the second game and managed to eek out a tenner to end the day. Thought about doing the tennis and NFL tonight because I'm snowed in, nothing else knocking around, but sure would I be doing that on a normal Saturday night? Definitely not and would probably be odds on to lose given the amount of guessing I'd have to do, so packing it in for the evening.

Did the cricket yesterday, the dew still came down even though they started the game earlier, was a handy run chase again, every game played there so far this tournament the team batting second has won. Suppose it'll come to an end at some point but sure once the dew is still arriving it makes life so easy for the team batting and so difficult bowling with a bar of soap. Another game tomorrow with the big guns, India v Sri Lanka, be interesting what happens with the dew.

Last two days..
Cricket: €84.81 | Darts: €11.43 Total P&L: €96.24

Was just fumbling through the forum there and came across a thread asking for advice for a novice punter (I dare not comment, anything you type gets shot down), but some bloke wrote this "Deposit a certain amount in your account and treat it as if thats all the money you have in the world. Focus on keeping what youve got first and making a profit second." Makes a whole heap of sense to me you know, more days than not its a good result to finish level, if you think about it youre probably doing better than most finishing level. I'm always trying to cut out the guessing and the taking chances, obviously gambling is guessing and taking chances but theres always a right time to enter the market, just about finding it.

Yesterday and this week I've been finding the perfect time to enter the market on the cricket (bar the India game!) and profited well, today went in far too early on the darts match and mugged the book up before actually coming back to my first opinion. Suppose its a bit like football, theres times you have to defend your position and theres times you have to attack prices (in running now).

Its sounds awful weird, but I tend to set out each day trying not to lose rather than win, and try let things appear in front of the screen while watching a sporting event. Try having a blank opinion because it leads to being bias, which costs me sometimes when I favour the player thats shite, its odd how moments sort of just pop up when youre content and relaxed to wait. Might miss the odd bet yes, but not betting means you dont lose either. Life tends to become easy when youre relaxed about it I reckon.

Without sounding like a complete "look at me" tosser, the last losing day I had on Betfair feels like ages ago, the 26/12/2009 lost €27.50, why? I reckon because its Christmas/New year and just been taking it easy, in a good mood, relaxed, nothing to worry about sure. Things are tending to just happen by themselves, and obviously once you get on a good run its easy to wait and not 'need to bet' on anything you see. Keeping the head of course, I still started each day with €400 regardless, keeps the feet on the ground and dont push the boat out.

Now, finding this happy and relaxed feeling while on a losing run? Theres a question I dont have the answer to. I'm still learning new stuff I never knew as I go along each day though, and once one thing goes wrong, if I try change it that it wont happen again, its probably worth losing you know, once I learn from it.

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