Saturday, October 16, 2010

X Factor Betting

Just reading the rules here, theyve sort of ruined it as a betting vehicle with all the doubt, read this bit..

ITV and the producer reserve the right to introduce a wildcard vote at any time by which an act which has got through to the judges’ houses stage, but was not successful, can be voted by the public back into the competition. Specific terms may apply to the wildcard vote as announced on air.

Backing someone whos favourite now, and then Gamu turning up when shes got her visa (what a story there, a winning story FFS), doesnt strike me as being fair if youre betting now without that knowledge. But then again, last week everyone was betting without the knowledge there was no bottom two and just a straight elimination until the end of the show.

Then for 'bottom two' betting, theres none of that until all the shite acts have gone basically, which takes all the low odds getting gubbed out of the question nearly, two going for four weeks plus effectively a bottom three, meaning the likelihood of the likes of Wagner surviving is pretty slim. Betfair arent even offering the 'bottom three' market, going with just an elimination - 4.8 the field, its a bit of a lotto really.

The problem for the novelty acts this year is they wont actually be the bottom vote, (as seen when Jedward were bottom two last year but survived) but could get dragged into the judges vote by being third bottom - and then go, last year they'd get away with that, novelty acts are a gold mine because the market doesnt price them up correctly thinking they cant sing, but singing isnt the point sure until you get down to the last 5 or so.

Round 1 - Double Elimination - 14 left.
Round 2 - 12 left.
Round 3 - 10 left.
Round 4 - 8 left.
Round 5 - Single Elimination - 7 left.
Round 6 - 6 left.
Round 7 - 5 left.
Round 8 - 4 left.
Round 9 - 3 left.
Round 10 - 2 left.

PS. Tonight, Strictly Come Dancing finishes at 7-45 and X Factor starts at 7-30, whoever is first on has a massive chance of being bottom three, but theres no market for that anyway FFS, but I definitely wouldnt be laying the first on to go anyway, whoever it is. First on was also bottom three last week.

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