10-30PM, is it good night or is it good morning..?
The plus side of being snowed in, is you can sleep whenever and watch cricket all night, and no one annoys you and asks you to leave the house or do anything, its fantastic. The body and diet has gone to pot though, I was stood in the kitchen last night at four making myself grilled cheese on toast, with ice cream and maltesers - I'm 11 stone I'll be 13 by the time Strauss lifts The Urn, I havent bothered shaving either, but betting in the middle of the night is bringing me a weird sense of happiness. Maybe I'm going crazy, but I am genuinely happy watching it all night, you know that warm fuzzy feeling of happiness, yeah weird.
Anyway, I hedged on Eng runs last night (yesterday morning session) and laid the draw, I've lost around 30 ticks with the rain evening session, but I still think Eng will win and have got +€1,200 Eng and -€75 draw. Obviously you cant really call the weather to a tee, but we start half an hour early today and tomorrow, so theres 196 overs left without rain, say for arguments sake they lose 50, that leaves 146, Eng bat today for 16 just say, that leaves 130 overs to bowl Aus out. Even say another 10 overs lost thats still 120 overs to bowl them out. HOPEFULLY Eng have an above healthy run rate for the 16 overs they bat this morning (and theres no reason at all not to), and then they'll have around 375+ at least, maybe 400+ (Aus bowlers are gash).
Of course things change if Strauss bats *too* long (how long is *too* long?). I dunno, have to address those things as they happen. IMO 375 is a nice score to have, but I dont have big red the draw so probably more relaxed than a draw layer would be how long he bats. Declaring right away would be wrong IMO, and not because I'd lose €600 (HA!), but Aus arent gonna get bowled for 300, or at least theyre odds against to be bowled for 300, so say Eng have to chase 50-75 then, you might as well go get them this morning with no pressure quickly, talking about declaring straight off is T20-vision stuff IMO. Important to remember too Aus effectively have four 11s, thats being harsh on Harris, say three 11s, but say those four last 10 overs (only lasted 44 balls between them 1st innings), so you have another 120 overs, one wicket every 20, and then four in 10 for 130 - thats including overs lost for rain too. Probably WILL get rain but IMO the draw NEEDS rain.
Everything was going exactly to plan yesterday before the rain FFS, I was waffling away on Twitter "Plan for tonight, got to be bat all day, have the usual couple of overs at them before close, hopefully add another 300, 370ish lead and then Aus will have to bat for the guts of 2 days without a real chance of winning, even Eng chasing 50-75 in the last session will be fine." Probably now dont want to bat again, but there was turn and bounce yesterday so Swann should be a serious danger and sure if Aus bat out the draw good luck to them, cant complain. Am happy enough to leave it as is, especially at the odds. Even leaving aside money I'd be bitterly disappointed if Eng couldnt win from here, really have to be winning from these positions, the weather is an act of god but hopefully they have enough time even so.
Anyway the week, been buggered with the snow like everyone else..
I would have went out and built a snowman, but the back door was frozen shut! Some fellow on the news said we can get used to winters like these because of some wind coming from Russia now or whatever, not a fan of the cold. I was sort of unlucky in the Barca-Madrid game on Monday, laid red card at odds on, red card came in the 92nd minute, it was the last feckin' thing to happen before the ref blew up, bah. In hindsight happy to get rid of red though. Only other market was the India-NZ ODI, struggled for a loss of €14 without anything out of the ordinary happening. Then switched hours for the test but havent really missed anything with everything called off, hopefully Eng win or staying up will be for nothing but to be honest I dont mind and I'd rather lose the €75 than back the draw at these odds so far out with a team so far ahead, just bugger off rain.
Also, welcome back Tiger Woods while I was writing this, what a fooking shot on 18, epic. Then GMacs putt was special to make it a playoff, still going on but hope Tiger wins.. cracking finish whatever happens though.
3 hours ago