22/12/2011

Apologies for the lack of update this week but I've been stuck down in the prime of life with a chest infection, its negative craic, but I did plan for the week off anyway so I suppose its no real harm in that sense, and the main aim is to be at Leopardstown on the 26th without dying, fingers crossed..!

Anyway, not much to say because not much has happened, the Aus v NZ market settled on Monday night but that work was done last week really - Aus hit 1.02 Monday night before losing, and NZ went from 1.01 back to 3+ apparently before winning, long live test cricket for trading. I was in bed when all this happened but I'm sure it was good for anyone that stayed up.

Bit ironic I say I'll skip the overnight tests for "better life" reasons and then go and get sick, but even so I didnt miss much with Saffers v SL either - Saffers were 1.4ish after the toss, 1.15 by the end of day 1 and 1.1 by the end of day 2, it was never going to be a big test from those positions/odds you know.

Really appreciate having the darts on each evening to pass a bit of time, the Anderson match was brilliant, Barney going out was good viewing too, and Whitlock doing the business with a broken ankle last night, I havent been trading obviously, I havent even looked at the markets to see if someone is still well ahead of the clock like the Premier League, which makes quick trading virtually impossible (for me anyway). It seems more of a position takers market - I think its easier to be a position taker over the sets layout more so than the Premier League so I'll have a look at it after Christmas and see.

Anyway wont be around again this Sunday because its Christmas, so have a Happy Christmas everyone and back a few winners on Boxing/Stephens day.

11/12/2011

Well, its been an alright week at +€400, I say alright because at one stage it was +€900, but I wouldnt have changed either position over the weekend.

Eh, suppose I'll start with Khan.. where do you start with him. The interview after, why does he make it so hard to like him? I want to be a fan because he has tonnes of talent (IMO) and is exciting to watch, but you cant really say it was me v him + the ref straight after a fight. I think his SP was around about 1.11ish, but I had average odds of just under evens, I've no complaints with the scoring or the ref, for starters without the two docked points he would have won by unanimous decision and secondly the ref warned him about docking a point so obviously he has to avoid doing it again in a close fight, dont get docked the point in the last round (how annoying, last round FFS!) and he wins. Oodles of talent, no brain.

Then today, I was happy enough to be on Windies..






It did go to 1.8s afterwards, but I didnt think that was fair at the time, sadly there was a run out an over or two after that and then it was a case of typical Windies, reliably unreliable. I always find myself in trouble though when a team are covering the rate needed easily but losing wickets, frustrating, but I wouldnt take it back. And it'll happen again no doubt.

Naturally life is much easier when you have a more solid team chasing and Monday was far easier than today - still a bit dodgy and on the wrong team - but because there was so many bounces from 1.6 Windies to odds against, was able to create a fair bit of green on India, was only afterwards looking back I thought I could have been €700ish equal but I did think India would win, so no real complaints about that. Its just one of those things, because I was against India today I was getting around 10 ticks less for good things and 10 ticks more against me for bad things - Monday was the opposite so it was far easier in that sense you know, 1.6 would bounce to 1.9 for 5 runs after a wicket.







Anyway, so good to see Tiger back to winning ways last Sunday night! Delighted for him, and it was pretty exciting watching it, he was odds on when I posted last week and then eventually went back out to 4+ so it wasnt without a scare. I ended up backing him, probably more in silliness rather than shrewdness, he'll probably be too short for all the majors next year now wont he? Still, nice to see him back, his position in the market seems to be the only thing I have a proper understanding of in golf.

In the rush to watch him last week I forgot to mention, I've decided not to do the overnight tests this year - I'm glad I forgot to mention it because I actually have a book on this weeks, say one thing do another! It started at 11-30 which isnt so bad for an hour or two, doing the whole night though is really a 'life ruiner' its too hard on the system. From memory I didnt do all of The Ashes tests last year either, so I dont plan on doing the India series over there - although I would imagine they'll be good for trading, unless it snows and I'm stuck in all day I'd prefer to keep my hours (and life) as normal as possible. Its impossible to be normal doing this, but close enough will do..! I'll start putting up the Aussie wallet shots from now on too I suppose, I'd say the second test should finish up tonight anyway.







In terms of cricket going forward, as far as I can see we only have the Saffers v Lanka first test on Thursday and then thats it until Christmas, and then after Christmas it gets a bit hectic but I think I'll skip a fair bit of it, much rather head to Leopardstown for the four days thats in it, its only once a year and it wouldnt be Christmas without it really. Never mind the 25th, roll on the 26th and we can all have a bet!

Final of the X Factor tonight, so that has to settle but some markets have already (Amelia Lily to go last night), I have zero on them all so no point waiting - made a mistake this year (in hindsight) laying off Johnny far too early, he was 70-75 after the first show and after a few weeks traded as low as 16, I traded out far too soon. I should know by now, ignore the majority and stick with the idea that the 'fun' act does well, it was only the double elimination that caught him out, and that was randomly threw in somewhere in the middle this year by surprise, Wagner got caught by the double last year too. The funny thing is everyone sits at home and thinks 'smoke and mirrors' doesnt work on me, but the smoke and mirrors really does work.. IMO its been completely set up for the girl band to win tonight, I'd like to see the bloke win it, but sure theres no money on it so who cares.










And lastly, I noticed (theres no escaping it FFS!) that the Euro is having another "crisis" this week. I'm not sure what crisis this is by now, whether its the first one or a new one or number 691, whichever crisis it is anyway, William Hill are going 3/1 for the Euro to be gone by the end of 2012, so, if youre one of those "the world is doomed" "the Euro will be gone in five days.. three days.. no wait six days.. any moment now.. anyyyy moment now" people, get yourself down to William Hill and take 3/1 and let the rest of us live in piece and quiet, if only for a day, I hear were having Euro crisis number 692 next week, how exciting, its never happened before. Also, Greece are 11/8 to stop using the Euro by end of 2012 too if thats of interest.







I also have no comment to make on Manchester United exiting the Champions League, no comment at all, haha. Except to say if you, like me, love watching European football, the listings for watching your team in Europe in the new year are as follows:

Arsenal & Chelsea - ITV & Sky Sports.
Man City & Man Utd - Channel 5 & ITV 4.
Liverpool - ESPN Classic.

Budget 2012

Just to copy and paste the wording on the new online betting laws/rules in the Budget..

Betting Duty
The Betting (Amendment) Bill is now at an advanced stage of drafting with a final draft expected from the Attorney General’s Office early in the New Year. The Bill will, inter alia, facilitate the extension of the betting duty of 1% to remote betting and the introduction of a betting intermediaries’ duty (Gross Profits Tax of 15%) to cover betting exchanges. Following publication of the Bill there is a legal requirement to notify the EU Commission 3 months in advance of enactment of the Bill. It is intended that the new taxation regime will commence from the second quarter of 2012.

First reaction is I'm guessing when they say 15% gross profits, it means 15% of Betfairs profits and not 15% of our profits. I believe when there was a bit of furor over this a while back Betfair said they'd be happy enough to pay it (although I cant find a link now so dont trust me on that), because they have made a 'voluntary donation' (or something along those lines) to the HRI in the past.

Interesting if they say anything about it over the next few days anyway. It doesnt seem like theres anything to be overly worried about.

I'm actually interested to see how much the figure will be, I still meet people interested in betting in Ireland who have never used Betfair, or even know what its about (with regards laying etc etc). We'll see anyway.

04/12/2011

Following on from my post on discipline last week, this is another angle on doing things..



Whos the Daddy! I'm a huge Boardwalk Empire fan myself, great show. For anyone that watches, Chalky White is also the man.

Anyway, fairly quiet time on Betfair week only the two games/markets/days. I did actually get up to do both Bangs v Pak games but sure Bangs collapse so easy I shouldnt bother really, the market was dead quickly in the 1.0x's.

I thought the same was happening on the second India game this week but they drifted from 1.09 first innings to 1.6 at the break, I managed to start at 1.9 which was a nice starting point after an early wicket, it did bounce from 1.5 to 1.9s again afterwards but that wasnt too much of a worry because it was just back to where I started in the first place, and it was more or less a 1.01 train from there, with a few again stops of resistance - always works out well when the team you favour end up a 1.01 train though.







Was delighted to see Cotto really give Margarito a beating last night, IMO it proves Margarito used the illegal wraps last time they met, he only got caught with them in his next fight but anyone that watched 24/7 could see the photos after the first Cotto fight and judge for themselves, IMO he definitely used them, so a bit of boxing justice there! I ended up going out to watch that, and ended up at Fairyhouse today too so its been a busy weekend, really hoping Tiger can finish it off nicely tonight. No money on him because I thought 3/1 was a bit short at the start, hes slightly odds on as I type, but sure a Sunday night watching the golf from the couch with no hassle is always great when Tigers involved, although I have to say I dont really have a huge amount of faith in him getting it done, hopefully though, it'll be good for the game to have him back winning.










And lastly, I know it was around the place this week, I think it made the national news (Haha!), but I am a true romantic deep down really and you never know maybe Mark reads the blog. So Mark, if youre reading, I think youre a Daddy.. YAY!