Thursday, May 28, 2009


Still gutted from the result last night, United were pants, feeling a bit clever I went with a few correct score bets, didnt have 2-0 to Barca in mind though, 1-0 and 2-1 for Barca were their outcomes. Who would have thought Fergie would go with 4-4-2. Barca played well but United played into their hands being so open, what else could they do going behind so early though, but play an open game against Barca and its kaput. I'm glad the football season is over as regards to betting, lucky to break even over each month these days.

On to the horses, I'm not sure what other people think etc but for me the market has changed massively this year. Massively. I have in my records last summer (five months), while I was off college and doing in running every day, I made just over €5,500 in the place market off ATR and RUK - I've zero chance of even coming close to that this summer. I cant remember the last time I had an over €100 winning day from in running only. Theres less and less money on the screen each day nearly and its becoming so hard to get matched. I'm not complaining. Maybe I've changed, my edge has gone and these things happen but it just totally feels like a different market. I'll keep going and give it next week and see but its just not there for me at the minute, lose next week and I'd be nearly thinking of giving it up.

Noticed in the win market theres someone laying at 2.04 and backing at 1.3, their MILES ahead of what happens on my screen. Their not very clever either, they keep getting stung in Ireland and he (or she!) reads the angle terribly at Lingfield, its not someone whos being doing it for long and in my mind their betting off the live feed without question. Watch the market on SIS (ATR) tracks only, 1.3 and 2.04, you'll notice it quickly. I think its 5K laying and 15K backing. I dont mind these things, I'm behind and have to accept it, once youre aware of it thats half the battle. Not surprised theres less people betting in running though I suppose, there certainly was more €2 and €3s hanging around than before. Maybe its the credit crunch, premium charge or whatever, thats life, I havent taken their money anyway so if they could please come back they would be most welcome, I'll play nice!

Anyway to round off two losing days, the cricket was a mini disaster this evening. Fancied Essex from the start but five run outs from them (fat fookers!), went all red at half time, actually a bit happy because was genuinely thinking over going €600 red on Essex to get green on Sussex, thought it was an easy target to chase, nice test of discipline passed there I reckon. Some games I just cant pick a good trade at all, always get sporting events like that and its definitely not the last time it'll happen, I tend not to worry because I'm confident on cricket. I dont like even 20/20 games though I have to say, when teams are swinging from 1.8 every so often, I dont like those prices to get involved in, such a fine line between it going for or against you. Thats what basically happened tonight, backed essex at 1.9 and it all went kaput, hadnt got the bottle to ride it out fully but I was never planning to anyway, you just know the games going down to 15 off 10 balls and thats no good, thats leaving yourself open to anything happening. Thats one thing I learned from the IPL, its not all about looking at the hot cheerleaders, and 4 off 6 balls is not a certainty!

Cricket: -EUR238.71 | Horse Racing: -EUR27.13 | Soccer: -EUR180.01 Total P&L: -EUR445.85

Cricket is my biggest winner and I'm kind of gutted the horses and football have gotten in the way today, always fearful of making things worse, you do start to think no matter what you do it goes pear shaped, confidence is key. The last three months on Betfair, cricket is head and shoulders above everything else with horses second and rugby third. I should stop betting on golf too which is the only over -€500 sport, have the GAA back too now which is nice and looking forward to that. I dont mind losing a few quid once I learn something and I think I've learned more this month than I have in the last year, happy to see the back of it and June will be very different. Wrote out a few rules and things to do, and more importantly things to stay away from and not to do.

Few examples: no betting while the first innings is on unless laying at under 1.5, no betting with the bookies on cricket, no betting pre-race on English horse racing, €200 is the maximum liability on any market, no guessing on an evens market with only two outcomes, no golf betting before the last day, on test cricket no betting before the last day, no forcing things on the horses in running, think more about every bet, dont let the Betfair balance build up too much - but avoid taking too much out that youre thinking of it, less football bets, when all red accept it stop digging (most important!) the amount of times I've lost an extra €50 trying to get out laying at 1.2 etc. Theres a few more but those are the ones at the front of my head, I was going to do a little thing on the side if I can, tip a horse from Ireland every day, 2pts win or 1pt e/w every day theres an Irish meeting, wont back them necessarily every day but it'll make me look through the card. Which I like doing anyway, I'll see if theres a handy way of doing it, if not I'll leave it.

It hurts to get over €13,000 and then fall back under. Although I think I have the raw talent to complete the challenge, its just directing it in the right way and keep ticking over, moving forward, I fully understand I wont win everyday, and there'll be times I lose my head - but just keep losing to a minimum, the most important lesson I've learned this month is money management and this sounds weird but - its not about winning, its about not losing. You dont lose, you protect yourself and you can only move forward. Ask myself before every bet, "am I guessing," was I guessing on the football last night, yeah. Did I lose, yeah. I'm the normal punter and obviously every bet I do is gambling on things going my way, I dont have fast pictures, software, a system or anything like that. its just me, Betfair, the tv and the computer. And I love it!

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