Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Naas Wednesday (Currently +8.54pts)

Incredibly difficult card tonight, I was meant to be going but it doesnt look worth it to be honest, Weld and Bolger have a runner at the head of the market in most of the races and both stables are a just bit quite at the moment, Bolger especially (cue a treble tonight!) but you cant back any of his runners with any confidence. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I think all of Ireland knew how good a lay Lush lashes was in Royal Ascot. I knew it but I was in the bar at the time.

Weld is in OK form, but for the last two weeks I think hes had just three winners and four favourites beaten under 6/4, and one 8/13 shot beaten that got backed as if losing wasnt an option at Leopardstown I think. His horse Casual in the 8-00 looks like going off odds on but I cant back him at those prices. As for Bolgers horses, well he has a good few fancied tonight, Ceist Eile in the 8-30 already ran well this week so I'd be less worried about that one, and I've heard good things about OGraolaigh in the 7-00, but the stable just isnt firing like it was at the start of the season, and a few people are questioning whether the horses are over the top, we'll know more tonight.

As for my pick, really and truly I only had one race to choose from going through the card, the 6-30. It looks to be between two, Miracle Match and Bada Bling. Bada Bling isnt anything special but he'll be seen in better light over 6F rather than the 7F hes been running over. While Miracle Match ran a super race first time out finishing third to Emperor Claudius (a horse I've a lot of time for), he was slowly away that day and was the only one really to make any good ground from the back. He'll know more about his job today and if he runs to the same standard he should be good enough for Bada Bling. The main point is if they both run to their best Miracle Match looks to be the better one, people backing Bada Bling will be hoping he hasnt stayed at 7F and will be better over 6F, apart from that hes no world beater and there to be beaten if Miracle Match is good enough. I think most of the bookies know that and thats why hes a better price on Betfair!

Miracle Match 6-30 Naas, 2pts win @ 6/4 on Betfair.

1 comment:

  1. Hi mate,

    Great stuff with the irish bets, You obviously know your stuff on the irish racing and i'll be following you in on these.

    Nice winner tonight, did it pretty easily i thought.