Friday, July 3, 2009

Bellewstown Friday (Currently +20.6pts)

Very poor racing today, had a quick look through Bellewstown yesterday evening and thought straight away "ah thank god I've Wexford to bet on," then looked at the Wexford card and it was worse.

One horse stands out for me by a mile over the two cards and thats Valain in the 8-50 at Bellewstown, hes not the type of horse you'd normally see on a day like today because he does have a bit of class about him. Hes ran at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown this year and hasnt run terribly at either of them, I'd forget the finishing position in Punchestown because he made an awful mistake at the most important part of the race. I'd kind of have the opinion that he hasnt been finishing his races this year, for whatever reason over 2M, it might be just the fact hes not good enough for the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree. Charlie Swan has booked Nina Carberry tonight so that shows their taking this race seriously and he should be good enough here, hes a class above the rest of these, however hes not a horse you could trust with your life. I suppose hes running here for a reason, because he cant win anywhere else and needs a confidence booster.

Its a very weak race, his main danger Charminamix has a few good runs to his name and a few bad ones, as you'd expect being trained by Tony Martin really, I gave up guessing what he was going to do a long time ago. All things said on form though, Valain should be much better than him. Valain is a very good horse whos just lost his way a little bit this year, hes miles better than this lot and he should win pretty easily if everything is OK with the horse and he wants to win, hes had a few bad things happen him this year. Without those doubts I'd be very comfortable having 4pts win or more on him in this race but just a small bit worried hes forgotten how to enjoy himself while racing so 2pts win seems about right. As for the rest of the card and the Wexford card, good luck!

Valain 8-50 Bellewstown, 2pts win @ 5/4 with Paddy Power.

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