Thursday, July 2, 2009

Bellewstown Thursday (Currently +17.6pts)

Half of Ireland are talking about our loudest thunder storm last night with the rain causing floods in a few places, this is all news to me as I slept through it but I suppose were back to looking for horses that like a bit of cut in the ground. The course isnt that far from Dublin so I presume it got most of the rain, say 25mm overnight. Its a nice enough card without it being too fantastic for betting, thinking about going this evening as theres not much else knocking around with the weather so bad.

Plenty of short favourites and as you would expect with a meeting like this theres a lot of dead wood running in most of the races, you can nearly narrow most races down to three or four horses, cue seven 25/1 winners now! The first race at 5-45 is probably one of the best maidens youre likely to see here, I buy into Sharp Steels form because it ties into the strong form line from yesterdays winner through Miracle Match, but beaten 4L by him and under 2/1 today in a fairly OK race is a bit short considering Miracle Match won so easy in Naas it was the type of race there was no second. I still think Sharp Steel is the most likely winner but I'll just pass on the price, hes a fantastic draw too.

Willie Mullins has the last two favourites and both look short enough for me, I've never been a fan of backing a horse to follow up a win when theyve had a couple of zeros in front of the one, I was at Punchestown when he finished 19th of 22, Paddy Power go 2/5, he went off at 14/1 unfancied the day he won, hes hardly a certainty today. All that said theres not much to beat him so you couldnt call him a good lay either. As for the bumper, the only possible reason Huckle Buck Shoe is favourite is because of who trains him, the horse is way below average. But again, the race is way below average as well and looking at the betting it looks a two horse race on paper. No surprises if both of Mullins won, its just their not ideally horses I'd be backing at short odds thats all.

My pick April runs at 6-15, now I'm well aware I'm backing the horse voted as Irelands favourite bookies horse of 2009! Beaten three times as favourite, odds on twice and beaten five times under the price of 7/2, most people are likely to see the string of twos beside her and say dog, but shes never dogged it to what I've seen, shes just been fairly beaten because shes not that great. Although, if she cant win todays race they should just give up and retire her to be honest, I think the 5F trip is a massive plus and hopefully Smullen will bounce out and make all. Her draw isnt ideal at Bellewstown but to go the lead and it shouldnt be a problem, shes already beaten her main danger Ajsaam by 3L when they finished 2nd and 3rd at Fairyhouse, I think the drop back in trip will suit April more and she also gets 5lbs off Ajsaam which is handy enough. Havent noticed Spring Horizon before todays race, shes no world beater but has some alright form, I've watched one or two of her races back this morning and shes found very little off the bridle. I'm really hoping Smullen bounces out April in front and asks the others to go by, because half of them dont look up for doing just that. Over the trip, its one last chance for her today in a weak race, she'll never have a better chance than this. Thought about having the minimum 1pt on her because its hard to be confident in a race like this, but all things considered I reckon shes worth the usual 2pts win.

Away from the Irish racing, I've been told that Cadley Road in the 6-50 at Epsom is a certainty by three different people now in the last half an hour, I hate backing horses first time out unless I know its a machine but theyve all given me good reasons and talked me into backing this horse so I'm off to back it in a few shops around Dublin, hopefully go unnoticed.

April 6-15 Bellewstown, 2pts win @ 6/4 on Betfair.

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