Saturday, July 18, 2009

England Bat - I'm confused

No matter what Sky Sports says it was the right decision to bat, no cloud cover, suns out, flat pitch and batting looks easy today. Their spinner has a broken finger and Johnson cant bowl a line and length to save his life. Now they have to set a score, a proper score 550+ by lunch tomorrow at the latest.

England are 1.6, Australia 14 and the draw 3.25.

Dont want to lay England because they could post a massive total here and then bat the Aussies out to the game, so its then a two runner market and you might as well be backing the draw as laying England, on the other side of that dont want to back them because they do have a history of giving away their wickets, then that brings in Australia winning. The collapse is always on, but I'd rather not bet on it.

The draw is a funny one, with the flat pitch and the market being so scared of weather forecasts it could be a brilliant trade, but as an outright bet at the moment I wouldnt say its a very good one with three days left and into the second innings already, England will score quickly and most likely declare. The draw bet will need England batting too long and then Australia playing for a draw, the odds are basically set fair until something happens. Sitting on my hands but will be looking to get on the session runs this afternoon, hopefully 100 or 110 will be over evens on Betfair, if 80 is 1/2 or something I'd back that too. Match odds very hard to call at the moment.

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