Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Whats Hot And Whats Not

Had an spare hour this evening to myself and I've been looking at my P&L for each sport for the last two years, I do it every so often, for anyone that doesnt keep records it really points out the sports youre not good at and its very helpful. This is over every form of gambling now not just this blog, whatever is it - on course, online, bookies, Betfair, the challenge. After making new rules a few weeks ago, discipline was number one on the list (as always!) and something I really wanted the work on, its went well and I've cut out a lot of bets but the P&Ls have pointed out a few new things today and I want to stick to this.

Top 5 sports for me to bet on in order of profit..
1) Horse Racing
2) GAA
3) Boxing
4) Cricket
5) Rugby

Pretty shocked Boxing came in at 3rd, and Rugby in the top 5 too as I've never really given it any time whatsoever. I'd always expect the horses to be first, and was quite impressed with my GAA P&L considering its only on for the summer and disappointed with the cricket only in 4th as I probably give it the most of my time. I also have to say the loss of any real serious money coming from horses in running has hurt me a lot this year, but reading the Betfair forum that seems to be the general feeling. I always say I'll give it more time but then sit here for the day without getting anything over €3 matched and end up wanting to break the computer.

Cant explain how Boxing is 3rd, and looking at it month by month it seems I make profits nearly every month I bet on it, only had one loss in the last two years! I would have never thought that, same with Rugby very few losses. Starting to think with sports betting the ones with the least losses are the biggest winners, that sounds very simple and obvious but the yo-yo high win high loss effect doesnt seem as profitable as the slow, steady continued profit approach. If I could stick to these sports I'd be a million times better and a hell of a lot more in profit, thats going to be the main aim until I go back to college at the end of September. Have a few sports that are so-so, no loss no gain type of thing and will list them later on, not sports to avoid like these next few.

Top 4 sports for me not to bet on in order of profit..
1) Golf
2) Soccer
3) NFL
4) Snooker

I've only got 4 sports with over €1,000 loss showing on them over the last two years, thats fairly alright if I can cut them out, which I have to say I havent been able to do. Soccer seems to always lure in me all the time, while I spent last year betting on Soccer in bets of between €12,000 and €4,000 I'm disappointed its not a winner for me. But I can remember certain games that really hurt, Arsenal v Hull comes to mind and there was a run of three games where I lost €13,000 in a week! That hurt considering I dont have a job other than gambling and made me give up on it, I remember a Chelsea game being the last big bet, they drew. Over the last two years I've lost just over €4,000 on Soccer and since the new season starts in a month, I really have to work out a way not to get too involved in it. Even if I want to have a bet, which I do most of the time, I'll have to limit it to say €25 or €50 quid. I might enter that Paddy Power last man standing to stop me, and have a running €20 on a team each week, keep it rolling over until one loses and start again with €20. Stupid things like this always help, theres always a way of working around things.

While it doesnt top the list, I'm kind of surprised Golf is at the top, and its more of a collection of €500ish losses rather than one or two big losses effecting it, which really points out I'm woeful betting on it and should seriously stop. Problem being I love Golf and play it maybe three times a week or more, but with a loss of €5,500 over the two years it has to be cut out, and over that whole time I've had a grand total of three winning months on it. As of today, no more betting on Golf, again if I really have to, I'll have €20 on someone in the majors. Its clearly the worst thing for me to bet on.

While the NFL and snooker come in 3rd and 4th with losses of €1,500 on NFL (one market!) and €1,000 on snooker. Snooker again is a bit like the golf in that its a few rolling loses, where as the NFL was one night of madness after coming home from Leopardstown after winning plenty, open Betfair thinking I'm fantastic and I'm €1,500 all red, first bet into the market was €500 too. On a sport I know nothing about, cant tell you what I was thinking at the time. I still remember clearly the day it happened, a sunny Sunday evening at the end of summer. If I could stay away from these 4 sports it'd be absolutely fantastic and will have to make a special effort to do so.

Sports to add to the profitable ones, but not give them as much time..
1) Darts
2) Tennis
3) Motor Sport

Three sports I'm in profit on but nothing to change my life, with darts being the highest that has a lot to do with last years profits rather than this years, I dont know whats changed really but I'm trying to go back to the way I traded the Darts last year. While Wimbledon hasnt been too good for me this year, Tennis has been alright and its not a sport I should avoid. I dont normally bet on it too much, only the major events so that probably explains it. Motor Sport is quite profitable with a P&L of €1,000 over the last two years, backing someone to win the GP whenever I fancy them, no losses in two years and that again points out the yo-yo effect doesnt work. Mainly these sports are handy enough to have, while I shouldnt pick them over the top 5.

Anyway thats all my sports, after this evening I'd really highly recommend doing this to anyone that takes their gambling seriously, hopefully you've kept records. If not start now, it'll really point a few things out that will help, all this stuff can only help. For example, I never thought I was that bad at Golf, while I was proper full-time on Soccer betting and thats a loss too, two things I'd have never of guessed without this. Boxing in my top 5 was a shock too, and cricket only 4th with the amount of time I give it. This gambling lark really is all about discipline and having an edge, and its just little things like this that helps you point out what youre good at, or bad at! And you find your edge. I'd value knocking out the bad stuff rather than focusing on the good stuff but still carrying the bad stuff, these losses hurt youre P&L more than you'd think. Kick on with the good stuff and drop the bad stuff. A bad day wont feel as bad because you know deep down its a sport youre good at and you can bounce back, we all know no ones perfect and losses do happen. Its far from simple of course, but we can only try to be as good as Elliott Short.

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