The 5th Test

Still an awful lot of trading left in this game, although England are the most likely winners. If someone said I could have €5,000 for predicting the result, I'd say England and cheers for the money but for the time being, I'm on the draw. The longer England bat the more likely the draw price is going to come, and also England runs are helping the draw come in more too so theres lots of scope for it to come in a bit. But its massively important for me to keep the liability under €100 because I'm playing with fire in a big way here, also important to keep feeding a bit back so a wicket doesnt kill you.

But for the next session I'm on the draw until it comes down a bit, hopefully England bat all day, which is a fantastic result for the draw. Then when Australia come out to bat, maybe (I stress maybe) looking to back them as the market loves them and you have to think at some stage they'll have a partnership. Even England fans are saying "we'll win but it is England after all" i.e. no confidence, and the market will reflect that. Its been treating fours like a 20/20. But if England play well the game could be over in an hour or so.

The pitch is bad but its not THAT bad, its far from unplayable. The draw bet all depends on what England post so its not a bet I'd want to just hang onto for as long as possible, will be feeding a bit back as it goes down if its reaches below 9.4, I think 7 is the absolute bottom for it to go, but got a nice little bounce out there during the lunch break for no real reason. Jeez I feel like Adam Heathcote here, that'll be €55 please! Only messing.

But on the draw for the next little while, always feeding a bit back. And then looking to get on Australia in double figures hopefully depending on what England set them, if its over 500, I'd give the draw more chance than a chase down. I reckon its highly unlikely they'll collapse twice in the one game, but we'll see. Playing with fire so its important not to build up a red on England, but theres a massive amount of scope for the draw price to come in and then the Australia price to come in, with maybe eventually England winning, but I dunno about GSM-ing it just yet!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update at 2.24PM

Draw finnish, kaput! All depends on what England post now whether or not Australia will chase it, under 450 I'd give them a chance.