Saturday, September 5, 2009

Leopardstown Saturday (Currently +16.99pts)

Terrible news this morning over in England, two apprentice jockeys have past away in a fire. One I believe is Jan Wilson, and I dont know who the other one is for sure yet so I dont want to say any names, I've a fair idea but its rude to say unless youre 100% you know. Ian Brennan, who I used to always see around The Curragh when he was starting out, is in hospital after jumping out the window I believe, I seriously hope hes OK because hes a really nice chap and a good jockey. Just puts todays big race into a bit of perspective, somebody is going to be gutted after losing but when you think about it theres far more important things in life than a race. Hopefully theres a minute silence or something for them at Leopardstown.

Feels a bit weird talking about form after whats happened. But this is what I'll be doing today..

I like You'll Be Mine in the first at 1-40. Shes not exactly a superstar but she did have a nice first run here over the same trip and was running on at the end, hopefully Johnny will ride her a bit closer to the pace this time. I cant have John Oxxes runner What A Charm for the life of me, she got beat by Mark Twain last time, she'll have to improve about 6 stone to win a race after getting beat by him, not really but you know what I mean. Welds runner might be the danger, Prendergast is in good form. I wouldnt be going mad but at 2/1 it might be a nice start to the day.

The 2-10 is an awful race for a Group 3. While Poet is in good form, hes had his chances at this level already. Although its a weak enough race and he comes here off the back of two wins thats still not enough for me to back him at 2/1 or so. I dont really like the English runner either so I'll chance a very small bet on Johann Zoffany, hopefully get around 10/1.

Given the ground is OK for Sea The Stars and Again in the 2-40 wants it soft, its hard to fancy her that much. But shes had a nice break since the last day and the trip today will suit. I'm gonna go for Rainbow View here to try and finally win a race this year, just think everything in this race will suit her and if she cant win here, they'll have to lower their sights a bit with the horse. Shes been expensive but I'll havent backed her yet this season so I'll give her a chance today, she certainly has the best form coming into the race anyway.

Betting in the handicap at 3-15 is for insane people.

The big one is next at 3-50, seriously hoping Fame And Glory can do it, I dont think we'll ever have a better chance of beating Sea The Stars. It should be a fantastic race. I read something this morning when someone was talking about Fame and Master they said: "Neither of these horses are good enough to beat Sea The Stars." God that type of thing really annoys me and makes you want to win even more doesnt it. It'll be very tough obviously but theres no need to write off an Irish Derby winner thank you very much. I feel sorry for the people who laid Sea The Stars at massive prices antepost because given what had happened before, Oxx has moved the goalposts a little here deciding to run, I'm still shocked. But its nice to see him take his chance and we'll find out whos the best horse by 4-00.

Not interested in the handicaps at 4-30 and 5-35, most likely I'll probably leave before the last. Might head to Shelbourne for the Derby semi-finals!

But I'll hang around after the big race to see Dynasty at 5-05, hes a really nice two year old. Evens with Paddy Power this morning was a great price, while I dont see him as in the top three of the Ballydoyle two year olds at the moment, hes certainly one of the better ones and could possibly end up being one of the best come next year. He'll want to be winning this race today pretty easily to back that up but I like him anyway. Apparently Bolgers is a nice two year old and they really fancy it, so it should be an OK test for Dynasty to see how good he is. If he cant win this though, forget about him.

Now, thats killed a half an hour, I'm a nervous wreck waiting for this race. Hope everyone has a winning day.

Fame And Glory 3-50 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 9/4 on Betfair.

Dynasty 5-05 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 1/1 with Paddy Power.

By the way, I won €3 on the cricket last night, woohoo! I'll try update everything later and will have todays P&L to go with it. I thought I was going to win €10,000 for a minute though after laying Australia at 1.01, never laid a successful 1.01 I dont think, greened out not to lose but the price never went back over 1.2 or thereabouts so didnt go level green. You know me anyway, I love a run chase, they needed a 6 off the last ball, alas it wasnt to be. How England failed to chase down 261 in the first place I'll never know.

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