Thursday, February 18, 2010

Running It Or Greening It?

Yet again this question pops up in my head after this morning, for the one millionth time!

Hadnt planned on trading this morning, but couldnt help watching the end of India v Saffers, 9 wickets down, 15 overs left, what test cricket is all about.

Surprised India were so short given Morkel had already seen off near 30 odds balls when I turned on the TV, easy trade when youve got the balls (one wicket is game over like), wasnt worried by the bowling in the slightest, then BAM, wicket goes, kaput.

So, I end with a 27c loss, instead of maybe a €50 each side win, but I was backing myself to be right (if I was nervous I would have greened), again - do you green without questioning or do you back yourself and let it run.

I give this loads of thought on a weekly basis, I still dont know which is right and which is wrong you know. You green, they draw, youre saying why didnt I let it run. You let it run, it loses, youre thinking why didnt I green.

I suppose the most important bit is getting rid of the liability and then worry about everything else later..


  1. Hi Stephen,

    Its an often posed question. Take a guaranteed profit but give some of it away or let it run with the risk of losing it all.

    We posed a quastion to another blogger. You may find his answers useful, even if just as an insight to how others play things.


  2. Green out only if the odds make it a value bet to do so OR if the amount is huge to you. For example, you back Palace with a few hundred quid to win the Cup at 500-1 pre-season, then go into a coma for 9 months. You awake on the eve of the final and Palace are about to play Accrington Stanley in the Final. You rate Palace at 1.5, put you can only lay them at 1.6. It would take a brave man to not accept the poor value 1.6...

  3. I suppose the only way to get a definitive answer would be to record the results of each bet over a period, detailing the outcome of the three options open to you. This would be fairly easy if you made the decision to take one of the three options at only one point in the game. But it may well be that you would cancel the liability first, and then look to go all green at a later point.

    Then you'd be too busy recording your results to get any bets on!

  4. Good to see that I'm not the only one who thinks's it's a hell of a tune.

  5. I actually dont think there'll ever be a right answer! Did the opposite today and was kicking myself.. just have to take it as it is every match, I dont know.

    Best tune in ages..!