Friday, April 9, 2010

Grand National

Well, Grand National day tomorrow and as everyone knows, anyone interested in horses will have every tosser they know on the phone tomorrow asking for tips, when its the hardest race of the year! Give them a faller "Oh youre not great at gambling are you" etc etc. Anyway, its worth noting that since 1984 to the present there have been 103 runners who carried 11st 2lb or more and they all lost. That stat rules out the top 15 on the card, some big names in the market too.. Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Dont Push It and Tricky Trickster all carry over it. I know they could still win obviously, stats are there to be broken after all, but I'm happy enough to look elsewhere.

I'm also keen on avoiding the two favourites, for starters being from big stables and top of the market, its most likely that they'll be massively over bet tomorrow by the once a year mob, backing 10/1 shots in national is no craic either anyway. Big Fella Thanks has a big shout but with two 'unseated rider' out of his last seven, I'll give him a miss. And The Package seems to jump well and stay, but hes a young horse and this is his first time running in national so I'm happy to miss him out at 12/1 too.

My two against field are King Johns Castle and Snowy Morning, two Irish horses surprise surprise! King Johns Castle has been laid out totally all year for this race, his trainer has made that clear and he ran an absolute cracker here when finishing second, so he ticks the experience box. Likewise Snowy Morning has been around the course twice and completed both times, this year hes carrying the least amount of weight though which gives him a much bigger chance than he had last year at 11st 8lb (remember the stat). Both have great men on their back too in Paul Carberry and David Casey, both should sit there quietly and hunt around, I think the reason McCoy has ever won is because aggressive doesnt seem the way to go jumping fences this big. Anyway, at 18 and 36 on Betfair, they'll be my guesses.

A winning day today too, did anyone just see that Harrison punch, fooking hell! Hes absolutely hilarious though the way he thinks hes going to be a World Champion, he was 5, 3 and 2 rounds behind on the judges cards. Dont really understand why people dont like him, hes a gas man with the stuff he comes out with. I'd love him to fight Haye, just purely for all the trash talk in the build up. Lucky to green up tonight, very unlucky for the 1.04 backers too, Sprott 5 rounds clear, winning the last round and then Harrison lands a wonder punch.

My local independent was going 3/1 on Tiger this morning, so I've topped up after backing at 6s already. Absolutely delighted, couldnt be happier with his position going into the weekend. Solid round today 2 under, leaving him 6 under overall, 2 behind the English lads Poulter and Westwood, neither has won a major and Westwood has bottle history, more worried about Mickelson on 5 under sitting behind (still playing). But sure the way it is, if Tiger plays well he'll win, its his to lose at the moment in my opinion.

Boxing: €25.11 | Horse Racing: €32.33 Total P&L: €57.44

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