27/03/2011

Well, its been a steady week without much happening, the only amazing scenes (well, actually not amazing scenes, Saffers always choke dont they!) was Saffers collapsing and 1.07 being busted in the process..















I said last week they were prone to a choke but jesus that took the biscuit, the run out for ABdeV was really sheer rabbit in headlights stuff. Other than that I got the other three quarters right but didnt really make much money, India were short enough the whole time against Aus, Sri Lanka ended up a 1.01 train against England and Windies collapsed against Pakistan.

The good news for my outright bets is Misbah has beaten Collyingwood and Sangakkara is 120 runs ahead of any wicketkeeper left. And sightly bad news is India are 7 sixes behind New Zealand.. I didnt see New Zealand getting past the quarters (whoever they played) and possibly a little unlucky because they were involved in the Pakistan game were they got 100 odd or something crazy like that in the powerplay and hit 13 sixes alone in that game FFS, 11/4 was a fair price and I knew plenty of shrewd people backing it so no real complaints, cant see India catching them but it'd be a nice surprise if they did. Obviously Broad went home injured so thats busto, feel very unlucky there, he had 6 wickets when injured and Swann ended up with 12 having played four more games - that would have been mighty close IMO. And the Harby bet is down too, he has no chance of winning. They come out +€50 if all stays the same, if India can get up that changes to +€800 - so just a little swing there..! India have absolutely no chance whatsoever though (hopefully that jinx does it).

Its not been an enjoyable week gambling really, yesterday I hit the wall - was asleep like a baby on the couch at three in the afternoon (that was after having to walk away from the laptop during the game too FFS), 30+ days of 50 over cricket takes its toll, and I've been planning my life around the games, picking and choosing times to do other stuff and not interfere etc. I'll be glad now when its over, although we have more breaks now so its OK I suppose, in all likelihood such volume of 50 over cricket wont happen again (theyve changed the rules for the next WC havent they) so I dont need to change anything in my approach. Thank god today was a blank day and tomorrow is blank too before the semis on Tuesday, I'm nackered, I cant remember a time since starting the blog I've been this tired from trading. Time off is important!

But we'll all struggle on until next week.. "Youre never a loser until you quit trying." - Mike Ditka. The P&L while the WC has been on stands at +€1k, thats around the mark I had in mind at the start and am happy considering most of the games involved with minnows had SPs sub 1.1.

The Show Goes On

"Well, thats it finished for another year then.." Cheltenham is only four gambling days in the year, what about the other 361! And on we go.. its amazing to think we had a meeting at The Curragh today already.

Highlights from the week - without doubt my number one was the Gold Cup, just the race in general, Denman, Kauto and Long Run going for it jumping the second last - awesome. I thought Denman had it three out and for the first time in maybe 12 months or more I took my hand away from the mouse to shout at the TV, without having a bet, really wanted him to win but fair played to Long Run. Other highlights include Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Big Bucks, all brilliant champions.

I'm still happy with my decision not to go, and judging by my pre-off guesses without backing them, I reckon I saved around €3k (all things considered in going) in staying at home, and won €150 in-running too which gave me great pleasure seeing as how I am finnish at the horses game in general. Its not that I hate racing now, far from it, its just not worth watching in terms of the return, flicking over to Sedgefield and Huntington reminded me why I gave up, small fields, low liquidity nearing nothing (place market), a time disadvantage and low grade horses - give me Cheltenham however and I'm buzzing - but it all revolves around money doesnt it?

Well, it does. The pluses for Cheltenham (and other big meetings) are, every horse is trying, you have money queuing up on every horse, and you have outsiders involved who arent as sharp as our normal 24/7 crowd. I can watch a race, take a view, get matched and get realistic odds (I'm not gonna preach every bet I have is "value" more so I'd just be happy with what I do and everyone else can do as they please, just as I can). So I'm happy, big fields, money, horses trying, good horses, and liquidity. Now, compare that list to, say Lingfield, tomorrow. There would be absolutely no point in me watching, I wouldnt get fair odds offered to lay (place market), I'd get bored and I wouldnt get money. Money is king.

There are obvious reasons why Cheltenham is better than the normal Monday-Friday grind, but the question is, how can the BHA attract people to the Monday-Friday grind in its currently state?

Anyway moving on, my horse racing Monday-Friday ship has sailed, and we finally have the quarter-finals in the cricket WC:

Quarter-final 1 - March 23rd, Mirpur: Pakistan v West Indies
Quarter-final 2 - March 24th, Ahmedabad: India v Australia
Quarter-final 3 - March 25th, Mirpur: New Zealand v South Africa
Quarter-final 4 - March 26th, Colombo: Sri Lanka v England
Semi-final 1 - Winner of (Pakistan v West Indies) v Winner of (India v Australia)
Semi-final 2 - Winner of (New Zealand v South Africa) vs Winner of (Sri Lanka v England)

I have Pak beating Windies, although both teams blow hot and cold, Pak to edge it if they dont collapse, they have the better bowling. India beating Aus, because Aus have only beaten Kenya, Canada, Zimbabwe and New Zealand, Sri Lanka were odds on when their game was rained off and got beaten by Pak, I know India arent great but neither are Aus. Sri Lanka beating Eng, whoever bats first will have a massive edge because of the chasing stats but Eng have been fairly poor so far, expect to hear phrases like "theyre tired" and "the schedule is too much" etc etc etc if theyre beaten. And Saffers to easily beat New Zealand, bar a choke, they have history for choking but New Zealand shouldnt be good enough to beat them, you would think anyway. India v Pak and Sri Lanka v Saffers would be amazing semi-finals IMO.

Not the first time (maybe the 20,295th time by now) this has happened me! Sitting pretty chasing an easy score..







Green out fully? WTF? Why would I go equal green, theyre fooking cruising..







Yeah I should have greened out.

The same thing happened me with Pak v Aus too, sitting pretty at 1.09 (carrying red, 1.1 too high at the time IMO), two balls and two wickets later its 1.45, feck. You know, sure I mean you make these decisions and you go from there. Obviously I'm always thinking about greening out but theres no point just greening out for the sake of greening out, its easy to look back and say 'I should have done this etc' but at the time I knew what I was doing (everyone knows what theyre doing FFS), I made a decision (at the time, there and then) and it didnt work out. I dont regret the decision because I made it, no one ever makes a mistake in hindsight anyway, thats why we have so many experts commentating on games sitting in Sky saying "he should have done this, he should have done that" once something has gone wrong. I'm annoyed Windies didnt win, because it was fecking easy, I'm annoyed Pak lost two wickets in two balls, but I'm not annoyed at not greening, I did it, I accept it, I move on. (Its nice to still win on both games but I went from €164 and €97 awe-green to winning €21 and €30, but hindsight and all that jazz etc).

I look back now and can say 'should have greened' but at the time, I was happy, so just because I was wrong doesnt mean the world ends, the odds are the odds and you make decisions. There is no "should have" because AT THE TIME there is always the opportunity to "should have" but you didnt, you didnt for a reason. So when it goes tits up, you still have that reason, and your "should have" is armed with the result. And as I said, no one ever makes a mistake with hindsight. Windies at around 1.25 was far too high for the situation at the time, I made a decision, it was the wrong decision for the result, but the odds were wrong for greening too - that was my reason. My "should have" is perfect because I have the result. My reason is still the same, although not perfect, because I didnt have the result. And I can live with that, even though I want to be perfect.. :)

Who Said Footballers Are Stupid..?

I mean, really?

Useless

I'll save everyone the rant, sure you all know how bad the site has been this week. In fact, I think that statement is worse than actually having to explain how bad they are - everyone already knows.

Because of my style, the outages arent the end of the world, but someone whos trading off a stop loss rather than a max liability is completely fecked though. I'm sure everyone uses internet banking in some shape or form, I practically use it every day, and its been down once in all my time with an account, once! Betfair has been crashing once a day this weekend FFS. Unacceptable from such a big company with peoples money on the line.

Speaking of online banking, I now have exactly €4 in my laser account for this week. Finnish? No, transfered - its to stop me having any pre-off bets on Cheltenham. I have good discipline generally but I know theres gonna be one or two next week where I'll be going "well, its worth 20 quid.." No, no it isnt worth 20 quid. So that solves that. I havent studied any form whatsoever, I was looking at the markets on Betfair today, in the Arkle - I've only ever seen two horses race, Realt Dubh and Mikael Dhaguenet, never even heard of the rest of them. I'll probably get a good bit of stick this week, but I'm not a sap you know - my loyalty lies with money, not racing, and it has become unprofitable last year so thats it really. I'd be a mug to keep betting on something and lose just for the "love" of it, I'll have some sort of dash at in-running to see what the story is and that'll be it.

Anyway, onto my stressful Saturday, I was lucky in the sense that when we crashed, the market was exactly where I had laid at the time and I had Kallis and Amla there (if you could pick two cricketers they'd be high on the list to have in such events), so I wasnt *too* bothered initially..





Then, it comes back for two balls, settles at around 1.6 and I'm just thinking what to do, then goes again.. next ball? Wicket. The poor new desk got his first punch god love him (and I'm normally a very calm person!). Checked oddschecker to see India at 30/100 - 2/7 and thought FFS not depositing €500 into a bookies for 2/7 and decided to hold tight. The site never came back after that, but Saffers won, so I was happy-ish in the end, stressful but alright. If it was a bookies I'd be screaming "Feck you! Get in!" but its Betfair so theres no one to scream at. Horrible watching it though, especially when it went after the wicket, but I suppose the max liability style suits over a stop loss - green point.

I dont have any facts, just my feeling, but Betfair has always been bad in the run up to Cheltenham. Always seem to recall at least one crash the week or so before Cheltenham, I'd be of the opinion that it'll be fine for the big event, and theyve been fiddling around the servers lately to gear up for it (just my view no facts). They also moved offshore this week so that might have something to do with it - "Any further use of our site, or services relating to it, will constitute acceptance of the new Terms and Conditions by you. This change means that from the above time, you will be contracting with a licensed betting operator (TSE (Gibraltar) LP) within the Betfair group which is based in Gibraltar, and not Betfair Ltd, as was the case before. TSE (Gibraltar) LP’s activities will be governed by Gibraltar gambling regulations." Lucky they dont have to pay much tax anymore because they'll need the extra cash with all these crashes!

Looking forward to events next week anyway to see what happens, my money is on no crash but we'll see.

06/03/2011

Well, pretty boring week in the cricket, Ireland only beat England setting a world record chase for WC cricket, Kevin O'Brien set the world record for the fastest 100 in WC cricket and only €3.2M busto at 1.01, you know, nothin' major. Shhure were a great bunch of lads. Suddenly cricket is cool on Facebook! I cant wait now to see all the exciting status' when Lancashire play Hampshire in the Pro40 during the summer.

I know I've went on about this subject in the past but surely cricket is one of the worst sports around to back in the 1.0x's? Darts and tennis are probably up there too. I know theres an argument "well I'd back 1.07 if I made it 1.02" but the fact it bounces around makes it very unappealing (to me anyway). I'd probably back in the 1.1x's but never 1.0x unless thats where I started laying, I suppose everyone is different.. people often say they dont back odds on on the Betfair forum and I think theyre insane but each to their own. It comes down to return really doesnt it, putting €300 on at 1.01 isnt worth the stress IMO because I can make do without the €3 as I have the €300, putting €300 on at 1.5 returns €150 though which is fair enough if it wins and you make it 1.3 or so. Theres no right or wrong argument, just personal preference - if I had someone to my right saying "I dont back odds on" I'd look at him as if he was barking mad, and if I had someone on my left saying "I only back 1.02s" I'd look at him as if he was barking mad as well..

On the subject of 1.02, €1M+ was done on the Saffers today..















I'm sort of an in between person, if I thought something was short but would win, I wouldnt lay it (I'd rather have no bet), whereas other people would work purely on figures and numbers, I wouldnt like laying something I thought was gonna win anyway. Funnily enough I lost money in one of these situations on Thursday Canada v Pakistan, I thought Pak should have been easily 1.7+ but the market held them around 1.6 - knowing Pak would win in the end really, I had laid 1.3 and thought I'm not greening out at those odds FFS only to watch Pak then win (as was the most likely result anyway). The trouble about bias markets is when you lay 10 ticks shorter than it "should" be (I say should as in your opinion) you probably have to green out 10 ticks shorter too because the market bias wont have changed, your opinion on those 10 ticks wouldnt have changed either though, catch-22 isnt it? The market is "wrong" but at some stage you have to swallow your pride, bias markets are usually bias for a reason anyway as its a super-power v a minnow.

At least I have one good market this week, Ireland.. :)






I wouldnt mind I went for a jog and shower during our innings, they were getting hammered sure, and when I came back England were still 1.02, I wasnt even gonna watch but luckily enough now there wasnt anyone good looking on Sky Sports News at the time or it could have been all different. Its fair to say though I am blessed, Betfair went down on Thursday for a while and I had no position, the power went to the house on Saturday and I had no position - I know saying this means I'll probably have €200 odd exposure next time and lose. Having no electricity is no craic by the way, no TV, no internet, no computer, no cooker, no shower, FFS those African lads they show on the ads must be fierce bored on a Saturday afternoon.

I'm still losing on the lower odds markets, but again same as last week just the odd tenner on each game. I suppose theres ways of looking at it, the one time the minnow won I got €180 so losing a tenner when the favs win seems alright. Seriously though, how did Ireland not beat Bangladesh watching them against England and India? Threw it away FFS.

Into the future, and I'm not heading to Cheltenham this year. Ah, I havent the same buzz from racing this year as in past so not really pushed on going. The money is probably better off being spent on something I'd be really buzzing about going to rather than be 50/50 you know, or the way things are in Ireland probably the best option is saving it. To be honest, I couldnt name one horse in the Supreme this year, not one, whats happened to me!? Its a weird feeling because people still talk to me about racing and I feel so lost standing there, and before I'd know or at least heard about everything and be able to have confidence in what I'm saying but now not at all. I have to be careful too because obviously not everyone knows how much I've changed towards it, and as everyone who bets knows you have everyone youve ever known asking for tips Cheltenham week that dont normally bet, I remember two years ago I was there to anyone that would listen "back Go Native, back Go Native, back Go Native" whereas now, I'm afraid to say anything because sure I'm in no position to give a worthy opinion, they bet once a year, I bet everyday, so youre going to influence them in some way, and I'm in no position to.

I'm fairly happy with the decision not to go anyway, I'll miss the banter on the nights out etc, but for the amount of money I should be getting the buzz when theyre jumping the last and its not there. It'll be my first time not going since my Grandad first took me in 2002, end of an era, hes delighted though because he hasnt gone for the last few years and I said I'll go to his to watch all the races with him so that should be good.

I still cant any find any prices on the Government bar PPs, although they only signed the agreement today I believe so maybe we'll have more. I know I've probably been a bit harsh giving them stick before they even started, but I hope the Govern better than they drive anyway.. was it the five point plan or the five step plan?

AMAZING SCENES!

Can anyone remember a bigger gubbing?

That was awesome!