Sunday, April 3, 2011

CWC Finnish

Thank feck for that. And congratulations to India, probably an "obvious" pick before it started but many I'm sure lost some faith during the group stages, the bowling wasnt great but obviously they have possibly the best batting lineup in the world. Its hard to argue they werent the best team and deserving winners because they beat Sri Lanka - most deserving of a final place, Pakistan - one of the best bowling sides IMO and fantastic when theyre trying we know that, and Australia - not as good as they once were but still holders, the only other side you'd mention would be Saffers - but we all know theyre a big bunch of chokers when it comes down to knock out tournaments.

My outright bets stayed the same as last week, cant really complain. I do have one complaint though, both winning bets were placed with Betpack (they dont know I had bets elsewhere sure!) and I ended up with 2/2 with them, add my Ashes cover on the rain in the 2nd Test and I was thinking thats another account busto, one of the few I had left that wasnt really limited much, although see from the Misbah bet (€222.44) they were starting to. I didnt have to wait long to find out anyway, I tried to back St Nicholas Abbey for the Arc this morning..

Two quid, worse than Bluesq FFS! PP gave me €24 E/W and VC €50 E/W which was fine, only for the horse to go and run like a drain then. At least the positives are (OK so positives is a strong word, we'll say straws to clutch at..) first run of the season, historically APOBs need the run, ground very heavy (we had thunder and lightening with heavy showers most of yesterday) but he does like soft ground so cant really blame that but I suppose having had so long off its natural he would get tired in what was very sticky holding ground, and Fame And Glory finished a well below par 3rd in the same event last year and he had a alright season after didnt he. The Negatives are it looked shite. Ah feck it hes no chance doesnt he? I can hardly get my money back now anyway so by that assumption I make him a feckin' good thing. Love is blind.

Anyway, my trading this week has been hit and miss. Hit twice, missed once. I did learn from losing and used it effectively to win yesterday though, I should know this by now but whenever India play the market just loves them. I had plenty of chances to dump red on India v Pak but just didnt take it, always too high IMO but its very hard to fight the market all day (and get a "fair" price in doing so). I switched around on Saturday and when Sri Lanka went odds on just laid that knowing without losing a wicket the market would strongly support India for any amount of runs, which makes sense when youre on that trade but if its happening against you (as it did against Pak) I'm sitting here thinking FFS this is an incredibly shit price, 10 ticks for a single.

India winning is great though, it means thousands of Indians are most likely going to have a loaded Betfair account, and whats next week? The IPL! Boom! By far and away my favourite trading of the year, 20/20s not half as stressful as 50/50 and the afternoon games beat getting up early by miles. If I did learn one thing from the WC (and it was my first WC trading cricket) it would be to forget about the 1.0x games and just not bother, focus on more moving markets, but like I said we'll probably never have that volume of 50 over cricket again. The thing is when I see a boxing match like last night at 1/20 I just dont do it, so I should apply that rule to cricket too, even if its as big as the WC. I'm taking a full break from Betfair until Friday anyway and then should be raring to go for the IPL.

I havent done any research on it yet, but theres two more teams this year, which means were more than likely to have lesser quality Indians knocking about given youre only allowed four overseas players in each starting lineup. Some young Indian bowler bowling the last and a handy batsman there needing 14 runs, you might not want to be on the bowler as often as 14 runs would suggest. I found last year though that the market was almost expecting "amazing scenes" and you had situations where 1.3 now was 1.1 two years ago, its definitely getting harder and more competitive each year but with the two extra teams and more thinly spread out Indian players we might be back to the glory days. Sure we'll see.

(Btw, I took screen shots of my losing outright bets before they finished because it was easier to click on unsettled bets rather than do a date search when they finished, yeah that jinx didnt work either, I know).

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