Eight..

Dublin scoring eight points in a game of GAA, Man United scoring eight goals in a game of soccer, the worlds gone mad..

I wont say much about the soccer, apart from the fact I feel awful sorry for the amount of abuse Arsene Wenger is getting, fair enough things arent going well but he deserves the utmost respect IMO, hes done a hell of a lot for Arsenal - all that good work doesnt just get threw away after three games. But sometimes too, you have to love Wayne Rooney..









Banter!

Anyway, Dublin conspired to feck up my HT/FT time bet, I'm not complaining too much as they didnt cover the handicap either. Not sure what to make of the performance, but a couple of good/bad points..
1) IMO, they were completely bottling it the first half, and would have got hammered by a stronger team.
2) They didnt score a point from play until the 59th minute. At any level, thats shite.
3) I thought they did well to comeback from three points down midway through the second half - I wouldnt have given them the backbone to do that before the game. Deserve a bit of credit there because that was very un-Dublin-like over the last few years.
4) Donegal only scored six points, that doesnt win games, so Dublin were lucky in that sense. Having said that Dublin only scored eight, that doesnt tend to win games either!
5) Donegal have a good defense yes, but Kildare scored 14 points against them in the Quarters, you'd expect Dublin could have done the same, at least, so it was pretty poor by anyones standards.
6) Obviously Kerry will be favourites for the final, and I reckon that will suit Dublin being underdogs. They definitely have the talent to win, whether or not they have the balls is another thing. Playing against anyone else today and we'd be sat here saying "classic Dublin bottling it again."
7) Looking forward to the Kerry v Dublin final!

So that was minus €90.50 with Paddy Power anyway, but the cricket has gone well this week. Someone commented last week "Bet you wish there was an England test every week" I really do! Life would be great if that was the case.







I said last Sunday I had a sneaky feeling for the draw and that was stopping me having all my green on England - very lucky I didnt because the draw went from 3.3 to 1.11 before India collapsed, could have easily ruined the book with that move.















The next Test series is between Sri Lanka and Australia, although I've clocked that its actually monsoon season, or as they call it, intermonsoonal season.. "The second season occurs in October and November, the intermonsoonal months. During this season, periodic squalls occur and sometimes tropical cyclones bring overcast skies and rains to the southwest, northeast, and eastern parts of the island." What sort of fecking eejit schedules a Test series in a monsoon season? FFS. No real surprise to see the market already like this days before the start..

EDIT: I copied and pasted the wrong season, doh! The first is from mid-May to October, when winds originate in the southwest, bringing moisture from the Indian Ocean. When these winds encounter the slopes of the Central Highlands, they unload heavy rains on the mountain slopes and the southwestern sector of the island.






Its at that stage of the year where laying the draw sub evens on the 1st day isnt such a good idea anymore, well not as much as the English summer anyway. It starts a 5-30 in the morning too, joy! Another small point about the possible pitch, the last Test match played at Galle saw Windies post a score of 580, you can be pretty sure the pitch is flat when Windies score 580..! That was the 15th of November 2010. If I was Sri Lanka I'd prepare a complete turner - Aus didnt play spin well in the T20s and ODIs, plus they havent got any real class spin bowling either.

Speaking of T20s, yesterday we had the English finals day - both semi finals finished ties, the first one didnt overly bother me, the second one did though, Somerset needed 6 off 8, then 2 off 4 FFS..






Head in hands.

Naturally lots of talk about covering the tie afterwards. Its all only a matter of opinion and whatever side of the fence you sit on really, I personally dont cover it, but 90%+ of the time I'd have all my green on one team anyway so it wouldnt make much sense. Statistically speaking, before yesterday there have been 39 ties in 2367 T20 matches, 39 goes into 2367 60.69 times, so in order to be getting "value" (I cant believe I just used that word, ugh!) you'd want to be getting matched on Betfair at 65. Now the actual chances of getting matched at 65 on a low liquidity market are pretty slim IMO, you'd almost have to back it before the game starts or during the first innings or something - you might not even be equal green match odds at that stage. After the three games, 41 goes into 2370 57.80 times, so you'd want 60 on Betfair, still the actual chances of getting fully matched are slim.

Plenty of people yesterday said "oh, you could have easily covered at 1.02 blah blah blah.." Well, youre backing a 65/1 shot at 50/1, and people always bang on about "value" thats not great is it, losing 15 points. My opinion on value is, everyones views of what is "value" will be different naturally so theres no point for all the arguing, just get on with it.

The only way you can learn to do something is by doing it anyway IMO, so after a while you learn what to do and what not to do, you cant just walk into a room and have someone tell you "thats value, that isnt.." because when theyre not there, and every single game is different, what do you do then? It just doesnt work like that because everyone thinks and sees the world differently, you can never have someone tell you what to think. And if you think about it, if everyone disagrees with you, you'll get a bigger price and win more money..

21/08/2011

Quiet enough week on the P&L this week at +€7.82! Waiting for the 4th Test finish up tomorrow, but I did have a biggish position on Australia going back to Tuesday - they ended up losing, and I managed to get out of it at 25c.. which felt like a win.






Other than that I've been focused on the Test, and going into tomorrow have this:







Its been good, but not without bumps, I didnt agree with England declaring on 591, I know the rain forced their hand somewhat, but I reckon it'll come down to runs (if Sachin doesnt go early) and it would have been easier to tag on 50+ in 8 overs or so when youre on 591/6 rather than go out and chase on a 5th day pitch against fresh bowlers with a new ball. It might not come down to that - but if India get ahead every run they score will become double because you'll need overs for an England chase then. We'll see, we could be saying an extra 50 could have come in very handy, or it'll make no difference at all. The odds seem pretty fair atm anyway, I have a sneaky feeling we just might get a draw but wouldnt back it. As the ball got older in Indias 1st innings, things did seem to get a little easier (although its a far more easy track) - thats whats stopping me from having all my green on England anyway, you couldnt trust India the way theyve been batting.

I only seen bits of the Kerry game today but the scoreline was impressive enough, they can be put under pressure - I'm leaning more towards Dublin all the time for some reason. I clocked PP are going 5/6 Dublin HT/FT next weekend, the Dubs tend to start fast so that appeals, they dont seem the most likely team to come from behind either so if theyre down by loads at HT it'll be a struggle for them to be winning the game anyway at 2/5. I have them in shorter than 2/5 personally so its nearly a domino effect for most of the side markets, I think they'll cover the -3pt handicap too but prefer HT/FT, if theyre 2pts down at HT they probably wont be winning by 4+. My online account is restricted but it being a semi final can get €90.50 on, it beats the €1.50 they offered on Kildare every week! At least if they bottle it I'll be able to laugh at them and say "same old Dublin.." Its highly unlikely they'll get a better chance of getting into an All Ireland final in years IMO.

New Number One

I cant decide whether England being number one in the world now instead of India is a good thing or a bad thing for the cricket markets. On the one hand, every England game is televised and it might bring in more interest now theyre the best in the world - on the other hand, India games tend to bring in a massive amount of money (especially for the draw). The Indian public will probably stay as keen as ever for cricket regardless because that seems to be the culture, and if we get more interest and money with England being number one, well then all the better. I dont think cricket markets are lacking any liquidity anyway - however India have been absolutely pap this tour, hopefully it isnt a sign for the future because keeping them as high profile as possible is great for the markets.

Anyway, skipped updating last night because the golf didnt finish until late. I backed Tiger (because its a major and I am obviously a major sucker), but was able to lay off when he was -3 through the first few holes before he had a complete meltdown - very sad to watch - if I could be any sportsman in the world I'd be him (in the sporting arena that is). So then, after going all green on him I proceeded to back McIlory, only for him to bugger up his wrist on the 3rd. Golf trading is fun isnt it! I ended up winning €7 - I wouldnt have picked the winner anyway, I hadnt even heard of him until last night. Not a clue.

The cricket has been much better, Australia traded at 1.07 Monday afternoon before collapsing to spin - I havent traded the ODIs but Ponting seems to be holding them together well since arriving.






That 5s to get 15 off the last with Cam White there was a great bet IMO, pity he got out the very next ball, but still it was worth it, market felt like it was one 6 away from a flip.

I dont like to use the word "easy" when it comes to Betfair but the Test this week, well it was easy. Back England, feet up, India are shite. I thought about not laying off, but you know regardless of any situation and odds theres never ever a mortgage job, and equally theres no point doing something different and unnatural from whats worked for so long, and sure nothing is ever certain in sport either. Just the attitude from the Indian players would lead you to believe they had given up, the price was extremely static around 1.2 - 1.25 for more than a day so that was my reason for not having red - I could see the lead coming but the market had already priced it in so basically the only way it could have gone was up and caused bother. India started their innings with England 1.2 anyway, which was a great price at the time (although I didnt back it), but it had been 1.2 long before we even got there.






No GAA bets this week, but I'm thinking of backing Dublin for the All Ireland at 15/8 (I cant believe I just said that, I know, I know). The thinking behind it is, I'm pretty confident they'll beat Donegal (and would have them shorter than 2/5 tbh), so then presuming if Kerry beat Mayo, I cant see Dublin being as high as 15/8 to lift the trophy in the final, and they'd be healthy odds on against Mayo too if Mayo did beat Kerry. It would also soften the idea of them actually winning it, it'll be worse than the English soccer team winning the World Cup, but if I won money off it who cares.

07/08/2011

Well, its been a fantastic week for trading this week. Massive swings in nearly every game, 1.4 matched both sides, 1.14 matched both sides some games, its just been a real trading week with loose opinions and quick positions.

Going back to Monday, England were fierce impressive rolling over India - it didnt help me to be honest, I thought India would at least put up a bit more of a fight and gave away €500ish of green towards the end. Cant really complain, India all out for 150 odd wont happen too often IMO (although theyre in seriously bad shape this tour) and its just one of those things, in hindsight I was probably playing with fire because Eng were dominating the game but The Wall and VVS both got out to cracking deliveries, what can you do.







After that the week has been great, although I've been a bit lucky at times, yesterday I found myself in a possible €160 all red position - decided feck it and let it run, and it turned out OK in the end to finish +€126. Its probably not the greatest attitude to have but its where having a max liability instead of a stop loss comes into its own, it was a shite position, but I support my position and if I lose, I lose - it doesnt really matter because its only one max bet gone. Now, if I was sitting there looking at a €5k red I might be panicking a little and it WOULD be different then! But sure once I'm comfortable with stakes - and losing those stakes more importantly - nothing is the end of the world regardless of what happens so therefore nothing can really bother me, and being calm and in your comfort zone on Betfair is fairly vital you know. It works out OK.






Anyway, Twitter informs me that our friend, Mario Balotelli (I know everyone loves him really), left Wembley today in a gold puffa jacket, knee-length denim shorts with a diamond hem and a glittering-gold suitcase. What a hero. Hes also become a hit in America during the Summer, no doubt they all love him too sure how could you not, he has nearly 10 million views on Youtube now, but I dont think the American comms like him that much..



You can tell this season is already going to be great banter, I cant wait to see how many people he pisses off. However I would not suggest putting any sort of monetary faith in him whatsoever, best keep him on your side while getting people to seethe compared to seething yourself.

And if you thought Balotelli was the biggest wanker ever? Well, you'd be wrong. Ireland currently has the biggest porn request from Google in the world, who would have thought that? For our size compared to other nations, The Irish - a great big bunch of wankers. Manchester is actually the highest city though.. maybe when Liverpool fans call the Mancs wankers they have a point.

Lastly, after a solid two months of Test cricket between Windies v India and Eng v India I have decided its time to get fit again. Started off a new gym program on Friday + a new lean diet to go with it, it'll only last for 28 days to get the six pack going sure I'm only 12 stone now, so if you see me giving you the Roy Keane Seethe Eyes its not because I hate you, its because I want to eat you. Going from watching Test cricket all day and eating Chinese to going to the gym and eating green beans is like going from a photograph to its negative FFS. Anyway I'm not a quitter so I'll follow through with it for another 26 days before undoing it all over a single weekend when its finished. Healthy living, its only a phase, it'll pass.

The worst thing is these gym people who tell you "you'll feel better" thats a whole load of bollocks, waking up early hungry, walking down the stairs sideways because your legs hurt, not being able to sit down or stand back up without pain because your abs hurt does not compare whatsoever with waking up at half 10 hungover, having two paracetamol and a bacon toastie, sticking on the cricket at 10-50 and away we go.. you might die of a heart attack at 50, but you'd die happy, you'd die happy..