Sunday, October 23, 2011


Its been a good week. Mostly due to the weather over in South Africa, everyone was watching the clean up operation via an online stream with no comms so it was hard enough to see exactly what was going on, but I managed to clock they were turning the covers over (or something to that effect) while taking them off - which meant they had to go forwards then backwards, which looked like they were putting them back on, but they werent they were just turning them over. There were four covers, they did it with each one, and every time they looked as if they were going back on the market was swinging from 1.7ish one side to 1.6ish the other, it was great..!

Then the India v England games have been good for trading, its following the same pattern as the English summer really except India have turned into English England and England have turned into English India, India have started odds on, England have traded odds on - India have gone from 2.5 to 1.08 then back to 2.1, even when caught you get a chance to recover you know, theyve been fair markets.

The whip debate continues to rumble on. Ruby Walsh got banned for a fantastic ride yesterday - but I think its "good" that the A-listers are getting banned, and I use the word "good" in the sense that its only when they get banned that something might get done about it, example being the jockeys didnt want to go out for the following race and only did when the trainers were called to the stewards room (apparently, or something like that). You know, with the greatest respect, if a nobody gets banned no one really cares, but when you get the A-listers start getting banned you start to get a bit of support and more of the smaller jockeys look to them to lead the way, so hopefully it might get sorted out soon. Although I wouldnt be holding my breath with the BHA.

Couple of stories to note this week, one being Betfair might have plans to turn into fixed-odds bookmaker (aside to the exchange obviously), I dont really like the idea - as everyone knows with books its all highly likely to end up with closed accounts etc and going down that general road. I dont put any pass on the figures given by Bloomberg - but its the idea thats the worrying bit. We shall see sure.

Betfair Group Plc (BET), the world’s biggest person-to-person online betting exchange, could increase profit by more than 50 percent with a new fixed-odds sports betting plan, according to Numis Securities.

In April, Betfair is planning to offer fixed-odds betting alongside its exchange bets to increase choice, a step that could help increase its dominance in commercial sports betting, analyst Ivor Jones said in a note to investors.

The new system could let Betfair tap into the advantages offered by fixed-odds betting, such as greater selection, earlier bets and more multiple wagers, Jones said. Betfair’s betting exchanges allow customers to bet against each other, rather than against the house, as at traditional bookmakers such as William Hill Plc (WMH) and Ladbrokes Plc. (LAD)

“If Betfair came to dominate fixed odds sports betting, in the same way it currently dominates overall sports betting, then it has the potential to more than double group profits,” Jones wrote, adding that the calculations are “highly speculative.’ He has a “buy” recommendation on Betfair.

In June, Betfair said it’s developing an “integrated” sports betting product that will allow it to offer more bets during games and other wagers.

And another story about our good friend Mario Balotelli - he set his house on fire this week by letting off fireworks, wait for it, inside his bathroom.

Mario Balotelli's remarkable capacity for self-inflicted problems resurfaced on the eve of the Manchester derby when he had to escape from his burning house after a fire caused by letting off fireworks in the bathroom in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Two fire crews using breathing apparatus put out the flames after being called to Balotelli's house just before 1am on Saturday to deal with what has been described as "a substantial fire" on the first floor. The property, in Mottram St Andrew, Cheshire, sustained serious fire and smoke damage, and the police were also called – in part to ensure Balotelli did not go back into the house. The striker is said to have been reluctant to leave his belongings and, at one point, to have run back inside to recover a quantity of money and a suitcase.

Still didnt stop him scoring two today against United..!

I'm looking forward to next week, will be hopefully back to normal by the weekend in regards to the arm with a visit to the doctor this week - I miss golf and the gym terribly. Healthy body, healthy mind and all that - its important to have a big list of things to do away from gambling to relax and get away from it, that makes it far more easier to forget what happened yesterday, be it good or bad, and start every day blank, the best thing about gambling is theres always a tomorrow to look forward to, because sporting events and opportunities are never ending!


  1. Hi Stephen,

    Great performance trading the Cricket, You obviously have a very good understanding for the game and in running opportunities. Do you base your trading on a game on what you are seeing in front of you? Or use a mixture of that alongside for example som historical data on what prices may offer value at different times and situations throughout the game?

    Obviously every game is different and therefore there is no set rule on exactly whata price will be? It's just i've had some success on trading cricket by just feeling a price is too short or too big going off history of similar games, rather tan me watching a game and purely going off what I feel is likely to happen? Hope my question makes some sort of sense? (probably not lol)

    Anyway congratulations


  2. Hi. Excellent blog, well done with the profits. Please can I exchange links with you? My blog is: Thank You.

  3. It depends James - I always take on board the ground stats, whats been chased v defended and so on, whats the average score. But everything depends on what the pitch is like, IMO thats the most important thing - I think during the week the ground stats were something like 15 scores out of 19 (or 14 out of 17 cant remember exactly) had been defended, England scored nearly 300, but it was obvious the pitch was a belter and 300 was around par - and India could chase it if they played well, whereas looking at the ground stats you wouldnt have said that.

    So it all depends on the conditions at the time and what the teams are doing more so than expecting events to follow history, I respect the stats though as a guide but it really is all in the moment.

    I tend to make prices off what the run rate needed is, base that on own opinion of the pitch what is get-able, and then go off batters v bowlers. In general though youre right theres no real exact price its just everyones opinion at the end of the day - thats why I never say "value."

    Hope that makes some sort of sense, probably not either haha!


    And thanks Abu, no problem done!

  4. Yeah perfect sense haha, thanks for the advice.

    That was the match I was thinking about, I was keen to be with India pre match and the stat was always in the back of my mind, England batting first was a big advantage in my eyes and after they had posted 300 odd I bailed out as I thought they would defend that with the stat fresh in my mind.

    Now this is where the people that actually know what their doing come in and make their money on the back of a "know all" like me who can't read the game aswell as them and take my lay bets on India!! Now the major mistake here was being involved too early and not seeing how the wicket was acting, I would imagine if I hadn't got involved I would of jumped on India during the chase as it looked as if they could do this!! I suppose this comes with experience and watching lots of games, therefore getting a feel for what's attainable and at what price I may be willing to take.

    Was a pretty bad move in backing India from the start I feel, as if England got a good few runs their price was always going to baloon to maybe an artificial prie at the break?? All easy after the event I know, but still a mistake on my part none the less.

    Anyway keep up the great work and blogging, you are a Betfair legend (lol) and an inspiration to all of us struggling traders... Probably more than you realise actually, The way you blog and bet is so honest and the fact that you take life and all it's ups and downs in your stride whilst having the ability to laugh at yourself in tough times is just a breath of fresh air to be honest.

    One day I hope to make a good living out of Betfair trading and when I achieve this I know it will be bloggers like yourself that have given me the belief to keep going with it.

    Sorry for rattling on, I just thought I would share with you what an inspiration this blog is for me(and has been for some years) and i'm more than sure there are many others out there that feel exactly the same.

    Just thought you should know

    All the best


  5. Ah thanks! I appreciate it immensely, thats the best comment I've ever got!