Sunday, November 20, 2011


I'll try keep this a little short because I have a touch of the flu. Quiet enough week on the P&L because I've been concentrating on the Saffer v Aus 2nd test, and currently have this going into tomorrow..

Its been good..! All three outcomes have traded odds on, and all three have traded 9+ I think too. Erm, tomorrow is tough to price up - I think the draw is short but we have lost the last session a couple of times this week and if play is slow tomorrow and they need 10 overs after tea that would be a worry, I'd have Aus shorter and Saffers longer but theres not a huge difference there - I wouldnt disagree strongly with anyone for saying either are a bet tbh.

Aus are going at 3.8 per over atm which would lead you to think they need another 45(ish) overs to win, which is why the draw, albeit short, is understandable enough - bad light is going to be a huge factor so much depends on the time it arrives really, which is anyones guess, then lose an early wicket and they might slow down a little and need more overs to chase it.

I'd probably favour Aus if given a €500 free bet but obviously dont want an overnight position and waiting for conditions in the morning, I trust Ponting, Clarke and Hussey - wouldnt want Haddin walking in with them needing anything more than 50 though. An added factor with me too, with no real gambling logic, is I've traded it from bed yesterday and today feeling shite with man flu, I've got to +€2.6k and dont want to make a complete bollocks of it now, it would break my heart! Thats probably the main reason why I havent added €555 to the results and gone small red on the draw.

Anyway that'll be next weeks P&L - this week is just a very quiet €32.72.. I did have a max liability lay on Sri Lanka at 1.4, and the market flipped twice, but muggins here only made €30. My own fault solely rather than events being out of my hands, and the second game was during the test so that wasnt given any real focus.


  1. Superb trading as always Stephen.

    Do you mind if I ask what level of stakes do you use to take for your original position?



  2. I keep liability between €400 - €500 then go from there, then if I was €200 green off that trade my next bet would be €600 and if €500 green €900, depending on how confident I am and how the test is going. It does build up fast when it comes off, but then when England played Sri Lanka I was +€900 and ended up with €25 so it doesnt work every time! At least if it does go wrong though you have leverage to not lose because the green has built up so youre way ahead of the market at every trade.

  3. Hi Stephen,
    congratulations for the results and thanks for updating us regularly.

    Just 'd like to ask you, how do you keep your discipline. I know its gonna sound like a silly question...but, you know it's one of the things "easier said than done". I've seen guys who, despite having the edge over the market, cannot keep their feet to the ground and end up losing all. For example, do you have to have a "great" knowledge of the situation of the game(s) laying ahead, in order to get into the trading stuff? And by great, I mean like "close to perfect", nothing less to compromise.

    Also, I've noticed you are more focused now on Cricket rather than Football and other sports, this means you decided that Football would cost in the long run and you decided to leave that apart, even ignoring some "good" chances, let's say Man Utd being trailing vs. some other team, not jumping on their high price etc? (don't know if you have written an update on this at some time, must have missed it).

    Any tips/experience sharing on the management and discipline field would be very appreciated.

    Thanks again and best of success in your project.


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  5. I'll try keep this down to a minimum explaining as it could go on for ages but basically I just treat Betfair like a job, and clock on - clock off for games.

    Sunday night I normally go through the TV schedule and pick out the game I want to do, then will pencil them in for the times I have to be at my desk.. then if I have say a blank day I'll be no where near Betfair. I never log onto Betfair for entertainment, its basically treated as a job.

    As for the football/tennis/whatever good bets, because of my schedule being organised I'm never there when those games are on, so I dont know about the odds.. and whatever happens there is none of my business really.

    Does that sort of make sense? I can explain it a little more really but thats generally the jist of it, I've never really had a discipline problem though, think its just because of my personality I'm not the type to chase etc.