Sunday, November 27, 2011

Discipline

Its been a weird sort of day today even though I havent done anything on Betfair, started off brilliantly with our new horse, Kitty Dillon, having her first run in a p2p this morning and finishing third - everyone was delighted with that and she'll have learned loads being held up and coming through them and was given a relatively easy time of it, at least we know now we'll get a few decent days with her when she gets to the track, it'd have been terrible if she finished last this morning or something. Then an hour or so later you hear Gary Speed was found hanging in his own house, very sad news. Its nearly always said when things like this happen but it does put life into perspective, you think of all the daily things we give out or moan about it, when we dont appreciate what we have really. I complain when the weather is cold FFS, when the wind is blowing too much on the golf course, its daft really, all the nonsense we talk about pales into insignificance compared to what some have to deal with on a daily basis.

Anyway, going back to last Sunday, I ended up laying Misha B for bottom two - I wanted to on Saturday but the market took her out to odds against, then Sunday after posting she went back odds on so was happy enough laying after the sob story. Its hard to find an angle tonight, I actually dont like any of them, Misha and Janet are both odds on bottom two and I would lay them but the other three seem pretty strong - there must be a fair chance Janet will get the sympathy vote which Misha got last week, problem is they'll probably drag each other down, not confident enough to put money down anyway.







Then up bright eyed and brushy tailed for the finish of the test on Monday, it worked out well in the sense that Aus won in the end, not before going out to 12 though, and not before the draw hit 1.3s, Saffers traded odds on too, it was crazy..!







On my screen shot last week all three were sitting at 2.3+ so whatever you backed it could have worked out well. I've been doing Pak v Lanka too but having some troubles, erm, almost confusing - at the end of each game I've thought "I could have won more there" while at the same time thinking "lucky I didnt lose a fortune.." I did make exactly the same mistake as I did on Eng v India though in ruining a good book, going from this..






To this in under 10 minutes..






Its that top up again, exactly as Eng v India. Erm, I dont know how to fix it really or avoid it because sure if you think the odds are good youre gonna back it, at the same time the hard work has already been done for the most part at that stage and as I said the last time, if it goes go tits up without the top up, can go €100ish equal at around evens and its still a good days work, whereas with the top up its back to square one if it does go wrong with no cushion. The conclusion was I was probably being greedy, but its hard to actually 'fix' the idea that I shouldnt top up when I think a team are big in price - just it always goes wrong for me! The odd thing about it is as a first bet into a market, I would probably never go near the top up odds, most times the first move into the market is odds against or 1.6+ or something, you know I wouldnt be bothered backing a 1.3 shot first up.

I got a good comment last week on discipline, and basically how I managed to only bet/trade on certain sports compared to others. Its got to the stage where I know what I can do and I know what I cant - and I can accept what I cant do, example being I know I'm fairly shit at trading soccer, a shame because I love watching it but I just cant trade it. But what I normally do is, ever see those desk calendar thingys - Sunday night or Monday morning I'll look at the schedule (livesportontv.com is handy at times) and pencil in the games I want to do.. obviously last week I put in Saffers v Aus as a priority and then things like India v Windies as a 'maybe' and things like that.

So when I'm sitting at my desk, and on Betfair, I'm here for a reason - to work on whatever game - and when theres nothing on my schedule to do I wont go near Betfair, I never ever log into Betfair for entertainment, if I've a blank day (and there are a good few in the winter) I go off and find something else to do, wouldnt even think of Betfair.

You know people always tend to say its ignorant when you dont follow all the news or current affairs happening around you, but I cant follow and do everything on Betfair - so if something happens in the tennis, its blunt but I really dont care, its none of my business, I can only care about so much stuff that goes on. Its a running joke here that 'I live in a bubble' but I'm not an expert on all sports so I have to live in a little (sports I can do) bubble to make things work.

The only way I can compare it to something is watching the news - if something happens in say France, sure who cares I live in Ireland, I wouldnt have a feckin' clue what happened in a different country if it wasnt for the internet. Now thats probably ignorant, but same sort of thing with Betfair, if something happens on Snooker, sure who cares because I'm a cricket/boxing/GAA trader. Its impossible to do everything.

Obviously over time things change and I have to change with them or I get left behind, things get taken away from me, a lot more so than given, horse racing got taken away with the start of people going to the course - that was more so to do with the technology that allowed it really, so doing it from home became unworkable (for me anyway). The darts, someone started going to all the Premier League games and was miles in front of the Betfair clock, that made it equally very hard to trade - you make a mistake youre punished without getting a chance to cancel and you do something right youre not matched. Boxing, Prizefighter changed the rules this year so that the draw is made live on Sky before the fights, I can completely understand it from a non-betting viewers point of view, but not giving us the markets until two minutes before the off was such a killer for liquidity. But sure I just dont put them down on the desk calendar and maybe put down an extra cricket match or GAA match (in the summer) and then instead of being at the desk for Fontwell on a Monday I'm off playing golf, gym, visiting the Grandparents going odd jobs for them, having the usual date night, whatever, and I'm at my desk another time when theres something on thats fair to do (in the market sense of fair).

As for staking/chasing discipline, well I've never been a chaser - but clocking in and clocking out does help, because its like finishing work, I just go after the game is over without even thinking. Obviously its easier because there might be only one game I want to do most days, but when its over win or lose I clock off without thinking - IMO naturally horse racing is the most 'chasy' sport because theres a race every five minutes or so, even then I was never into chasing. Its just been imprinted into me that gambling never finishes because it just goes on and on and on, so being up/down at the end of a day is irrelevant - but I say irrelevant and then if given the chance to be level I always take it rather than risk losing, but I'm getting more risk averse as I get older, and try and pick positions that if things go wrong I can go level and if things go right I win - again, thats something thats changed with Betfair changing too, you can be risk averse on a test match no problem, you cant really be risk averse on a 5F sprint at The Curragh.

In terms of staking, I have always used the 'feel it yourself' idea that at the given time I'll pick the stake anywhere between €50 and €500 on how confident I am at the time, its just the way I've always done it. Most of betting/trading is down to what suits the person rather than whats viewed as "normal" anyway, you have people who are obsessed with the word 'value' and you have people like me who never use it (I HATE the word!), its all just down to what suits the individual.

13 comments:

  1. Absolutely brilliant post as usual. Couldn't agree more with most things mentioned especially as different sports suit different trading styles etc... Also must have a balance and enjoy things in life rather than being glued to the pc for hours on end.

    After all, we are doing this to be able to do that....So Enjoy

    James

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  2. Yeah got to be able to switch off from Betfair!

    Thanks, appreciate it :)

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  3. V good post.
    Thankyou for sharing the experiences stephen.

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  4. Stephen

    Superb post as usual and so true about having the discipline not to bet just for the sake of it. I really must learn how to trade the cricket like you do as watching games all day is my idea of heaven!

    Cheers

    Geoff
    Fulltimebettingblog.com

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  5. Thanks, just copped youre not on my blog roll for some reason, added you now..!

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  6. Hi Stephen, I had done the "original" comment on your last update, just wanted to thank you, I mean, wow, you mentioned nearly everything I had in mind when asking, in a quite detailed and understandable way and at the same time without flooding and such stuff. Very honest and straight response, that's why it's so good. Quite useful and food for thought for many (of us).

    And on a second note, I'd like to point something you said and it might go unnoticed (among the other useful things you wrote such as about different sports etc), but has the same importance, as discipline, staking etc have: you said, when things change you got to change your approach or habits too. That's something very critical, in my opinion. And it's like what you said with football trading, admitting something really will not work so good for them, but this one here is even toughter, as so many people end up on the wrong way, because they are too stubborn or egoists, I guess, to change what has worked fine for them up to that point. I don't know why they think like that, as I said might be stubborn or something, but seriously, the way things change force you to be flexible, and that's something to make you think you are one of the smart guys (for pulling out), rather than being a p**$$y or something. Now, I don't know much on horse racing and trading on it, but what you said reminded me of the things another successful BF trader had said in an interview, about how he pulled out of the game, once he realized that other, faster and better guys, had come into the game. We just don't realize sometimes the golden rule of the stock exhange trading "cutting down your initial losses is as good as winning"!

    Once again, thank you for the response and best of success!

    Jon

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  7. (note for Stephen: Hi, I sent a comment some minutes ago, but I think I had accidentally erased the first "introductory" paragraph just before sending, so I re wrote it - more or less what I have written in the first place! - and re sending now to you along with the whole comment. If first paragraph did come with the initial posting, then ok...and of course you can omit this small note, it's just to explain why I'm sending this thing twice :) - cheers)

    Hi Stephen, thanks for your response, I wrote the "original" comment about the discipline, well you mentioned nearly everything I had in mind when asking, in a detailed and understandable way, but at the same time without flooding. Really good points mentioned and your last post was very straight and honest, too, that's why it was so good! Food for thought of many guys (of us).

    And on a second note, I'd like to point something you said and it might go unnoticed (among the other useful things you wrote such as about different sports etc), but has the same importance, as discipline, staking etc have: you said, when things change you got to change your approach or habits too. That's something very critical, in my opinion. And it's like what you said with football trading, admitting something really will not work so good for them, but this one here is even toughter, as so many people end up on the wrong way, because they are too stubborn or egoists, I guess, to change what has worked fine for them up to that point. I don't know why they think like that, as I said might be stubborn or something, but seriously, the way things change force you to be flexible, and that's something to make you think you are one of the smart guys (for pulling out), rather than being a p**$$y or something. Now, I don't know much on horse racing and trading on it, but what you said reminded me of the things another successful BF trader had said in an interview, about how he pulled out of the game, once he realized that other, faster and better guys, had come into the game. We just don't realize sometimes the golden rule of the stock exhange trading "cutting down your initial losses is as good as winning"!

    Once again, many thanks and best of success.

    Jon

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  8. Thanks for the comment, appreciate it.

    I understand that 100%, having to wave goodbye to horse racing was very hard, especially as its an every day thing you get into a routine so easily, I've been to exchange shops for in running and everything. But its turned out to be the best decision I've made, I still miss it but just have to remember every day I dont do it I'm "winning" money long term.

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  9. hello mate, great post as always. just added your link to my blog, care toxchange? thanks

    http://talkingtennistrading.wordpress.com/

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