27/02/2011

Sad times :( I went and had dinner before writing but still gutted really, nothing worse than an awe-green void market for the tie. First bet into the market was laying €400 in the 1.2s and then with the flip was sitting pretty, only for Eng to cock it up - somehow getting from needing 67 off 10 to 52 off 5 (I think it was 52 anyway). I wouldnt mind but I tweeted before even having a bet "This is just the type of chase where you'd love to have Morgan in the line up IMO" and jesus they missed him IMO. Hard to place blame but - Yardy gets 13/10, Bresnan 14/9, Swann 15/9 and Shahzad hits a 6 facing just two balls.. how come Collingwood and Prior manage 5 runs off 13 balls between them, theyre the batsmen it should have been there job to bring them home. (And I know my outright bets are against both but still..!)

Anyway life goes on, annoying for me because I was sat here with €230 green on Eng thinking fantastic, then it starts to look buggered so go equal green for €96 thinking thats handy, then get nothing thinking oh FFS. Some people must be delighted though because look at all the millions matched on India at the innings break, only for Eng to trade the same price a few hours later..















I took that screen shot because I was full sure I'd be talking about a gubbing, sigh.

At least the good news is Brian Lenihan retained his seat in Dublin West, my sports betting has been a bit poor/unlucky (today!) this week so thankful for my political betting skills, HA! Early odds on how long FG will last are..









11/4 next year is very short but understandable given the circumstances were in, next Government (whether its FG-independents or FG-Lab) will have to take some seriously unpopular decisions and the problems we have arent been given near enough time to solve them without the public becoming unhappy, so they'll be under pressure from day 1. Its gonna take something massive to collapse completely though so 11/4 is short, how long Enda will last - now theres the market! Still waiting for that one though.

Coming back to sports betting, I was gutted again on Friday night after Ireland failed to chase down 206, they only needed 38 off the last 10 overs FFS, admittedly with only three wickets. Winning would have given cricket here a massive boost, and when you think about it, how many times are we going to have the chance to chase 206? Very little you'd assume. I had every chance to green out too, and never took the full green option - that made watching them feck it up far worse! As for the games in the low odds, I havent been great, but really and truly havent had a strong opinion and ended up losing the odd tenner nearly every game - could be worse, could be better.

Anyway, plus €50 ending the week, losing €150 on Betfair but Lenihan winning me €200.. in an ideal world today wouldnt have been a tie and then Betfair figures would look much better and I'd be €150 up.. then in an ideal world Ireland would have lost either etc etc etc sure I'd never back a loser..

Theres an Irish freeroll being run by the Racing Post starting at 8-00, I think first five get some sort of prize and theres only 40 odd entered so far, should be good craic, with a freeroll I expect to be doubled in 10 minutes or busto, thats my plan anyway.

24/02/2011

Six days into the cricket WC and so far weve yet to have a second innings SP at 1.3+, and weve yet to have any team trade 1.4+ second innings either. Slow going with the minnows really but it should pick up the weekend.

Cricket: -€34.02 Total P&L: -€34.02

So far theyve all played at least one game bar Ireland, and India lead the way with most 6s with 7, Windies second with 5, and Aus, Pak, Bangs and Holland follow with 3.

Seething with Broad taking a wicket and England not having the correct amount of players in circle, FFS it was schoolboy, hes joint top Eng bowler with Swann on two. I forgot to say Sunday too, I had a small cover bet on Colly at 66/1.

Anyway, General Election tomorrow! Whats that old saying.. "Out of the frying pan, into the fire.." Obviously FG will win thats a given, but if theyre going into Government with Labour then we have no idea what we'll end up with because both of them differ so much, there'll have to be some middle ground which wont have been what people actually voted for with either party. But anyway, the blind leading the blind whaaa!

I'm waiting to see if any bookies make on a book on how long they'll last, or more importantly, how long Enda will last. Very keen to back under two years, and I reckon even FG will want to get rid of him as leader at some stage. He'll be the next Brian Cowan for public negative opinion, he was never really liked in the first place anyway and hes becoming Taoiseach by default really. Goes without saying I hope he makes things better, but as a betting man I'd back he makes things worse.

Bar the obvious selections, Paddy Power went 10/11 Brian Lenihan today to win a seat in Dublin West, that looks huge, PP must have a strong opinion or know something I dont but I'd have him around 4/11, hes been all sorts of prices during the campaign and matched at 2/5 on Betfair, with four seats you'd think he'd get in and it'll be big news if he doesnt. Obviously everywhere there will be the Anyone-But-FF element but he should still have a core vote, IMO Brian Cowan was far more hated than Lenihan and he sort of took him down with him, Lenihan is far more likable.

And from the horses mouth, even Betfair think its a big price sure.. :)

Self Improvements

I'm happy out this weekend, its the simple things:

I bought an office desk and chair, I've been wanting a proper gambling place for bloody ages but decided to wait until the sales after Christmas to get a good comfortable executive type chair - never understood people spending lots of money on a TV setup and then spending very little on a couch - comfort is everything. Anyway, I was reading a thread on the forum there before The Ashes about what people do while theyre gambling, all sorts of weird and wonderful ways, some stand up, some lie down, one listened to the TV in the sitting room and bet on the kitchen table (theres always one eh!), some had offices and some, myself included, were couch people. We have a fireplace in the middle of the sitting room here, like most Irish houses, so the TV has to be placed to one side and rules out it being on the wall, I used to lean over to my left so I'd have the laptop and TV in the same line of sight, were here three years now (I think) and only recently I've been starting to get real pains in my shoulder after a longish session. So the desk and chair solves that problem.

I also bought a netbook while away, I was thinking - every time I want to check something, say the run chase in Excel, I have to minimize the market, especially when on a Mac because youve to switch from Gruss on windows back to Excel on Mac (VMware Fusion is amazing btw, lets you run both parallel, highly recommend), anyway I cant check Excel/Cricinfo/etc without leaving the market screen - I know the market wont move an awful lot most times but I'd say 2 or 3 ticks could build up over time, without me even knowing about it. Netbooks are cheap enough anyway and I brought it down to the lads in Dublin to change it from 1GB to 2GB so its able to cope with more things faster, it should compliment the Mac well you know. And I read a lot about the two-screen trading and it seems to work well for their needs, I'd have different needs because of so many applications open rather than just Betfair but it'll definitely help. And I know its around two years ago now but putting a TV at the end of the bed the same size as the one downstairs has proved an ultra shrewd decision with WC games starting at half 8 - watch the first innings in bed, gamble at my desk for the second innings, life is wonderful!

I have no reason to lose now anyway bar myself being a gobshite. I didnt think it before I actually sat down but it is nice to have your own space purely for gambling and can leave everything as is untouched. Far better than using a space which has to be used for something else too. Its the simple things in life.

Alas, I havent won any money yet (you were waiting for me to say that werent you). I actually won €5.74 in the last two weeks, I am in clover. Cricket WC isnt much fun for the first few weeks with the minnows involved, Kenya only managed 69 runs today, Canada were brutal but at least got to treble figures with 122. Tomorrow, Australia are 1.03, Tuesday England are 1.04, and Wednesday Pakistan are 1.06. Oh joy. I'm not a massive runs player so just have to wait around for some action in the win market, obviously not backing in the 1.0x's.

I do have outright bets though..
India most tournament 6s at 11/4.
Stuart Broad top England wicket taker at 4/1.
Kumar Sangakkara top wicket-keeper run scorer at 3/1.
Harbhajan Singh top bowler out of the spinners at 7/2 (field of 8 with Lads, think its called 'turn and burn' if I remember correctly).
Misbah Ul-Haq 4/6 to out score Paul Collingwood (11/10).

Not big on anything but fairly sweet on India, Broad and Sangakkara after today. Harby only took one wicket first game but Murali didnt bowl well today IMO - although he did take two wickets, I dont fancy Swann coming back from injury and could miss some games, I really think Broad should be no more than 9/4ish top England bowler. No innings 400+ at 10/11 looked alright too but the minnows have scared me away from that bet, dont think anyone will get 400 but over the whole tournament worrying about 10/11 isnt worth it really, India went close enough first game that you'd have been slightly nervy at some points, thing about that bet is you can easily trade because 400 at the start of any innings should be a fairly juicy price, but the problem is *when* to cover, think 400+ hit 3 on Betfair first game, 375 was gubbed at 1.03 too.

I'm cricket mad this weather anyway, WC goes until the 2nd April and then the IPL starts and goes to the 28th May. I look forward to leaving the house again on the 29th of May. Its actually my birthday then first week in June and the kind folks at Epsom are always nice enough to put on the Derby that weekend so everyone can celebrate. If anyone rings for lunch now "Yeah, er, I'm free.. hows August for you?"

In other fantastic news, The Rock is back! What a champ. What a hero. The crowd when his music comes on is unreal (pity JR wasnt commentating). Childhood = RELIVED! They'll never ever replace the Attitude Era, just another thing the PC Brigade has ruined saying you cant do this, you cant say that. FFS I used to get up every single Saturday and Sunday morning and watch it when I was a kid, and sure I turned out alright didnt I? I havent handed someone a beer and then gave them a Stone Cold Stunner in weeks.. (Steve Austin, theres another champ, what a man).

06/02/2011

Seems so long ago since the transfer window closed on Monday, Torres 50M, Carroll 35M, apparently bidding 14M for that Blackpool fellow Adams, footballs gone mad. I was just thinking though, good business deals - like say Van Der Vaart for 8M - are becoming a rarity these days, youre better of putting no pass on it almost because none of it makes sense at this stage, Carrol for 35M is obviously insane but its their money I suppose. In fairness we were all glued to Liverpool-Chelsea this evening, cant complain we all still watch it, Liverpool done United and Arsenal a massive favour there though (I was gonna say done the big clubs a massive favour just to wind them up but sure thats too easy, too easy).



The biggest football news this week however is Gary Neville retiring, I think someone said he wants the job at Sky? Lets face facts here, hes a small, angry at the world, self-obsessed, bias United fan. Pundit? Surely he'd be much more suited to refereeing. Myself and the lads done an accumulator, like every weekend, normally get a few wrong - this week one team let us down. You know who it is, I dont even have to say it. Arsenal. FFS. At half time "Sure City are 3-0 up and Arsenal 4-0 so those games are in anyway.." Thats what I get for laughing at Newcastle fans all those times they said they were gonna finish top 4.

Anyway, January has finally ended and I've managed to win! Yes win, amazing scenes! Plus €150 this week and felt a million dollars on Tuesday ending up €100+ awe-green, for the first time in weeks, forgot the buzz of winning. The thing I'm most happy about is I went four weeks not doing a thing correctly and only managed to lose €275ish and then can win more than 50% of that back in just one week, happy I didnt do anything daft while things were bad you know. Tuesday anyway, Aus-Eng bounced around the whole game nearly and thankfully was right a few times instead of being wrong, always favoured Aus because of Engs bowling though, so that helped. 6-1 seems like a proper beating but they'll be a completely different side in the WC, Swann will be back anyway and hes obviously the best bowler. I was trying to think this morning who'll open, Bell instead of Prior? I dont want to drop Colly for his bowling so have to pick between Bell and Prior to open really, Morgan now has a broken finger though, HUGE loss if hes not fit, IMO he'll win you at least one game by himself, but if hes not fit I was thinking of bringing back Cook, so he could open and that solves that problem - I know hes not even in the squad, but he was basically 'the man' on the tour of Bangladesh and is coming off a fantastic Ashes series - this is only if Morgan is injured now, I'd really favour not dropping Colly because they'll need him if Anderson or Bresnan start to go around the park. And its obvious from the series against Aus the second string bowlers arent much good.

I'd have, Strauss, Bell, Trott, KP, Morgan, Colly, Prior, Swann, Bresnan (if Broad is fit I'd rather him), Yardy and Anderson. Problem with that is, Anderson and Bresnan are open to go for runs on subcontinent wickets, Strauss and Bell arent *really* explosive openers (compared to Sehwag, Watson, Gayle, etc), KP and Colly need runs and Morgan has a broken finger, so its all starting to look dodgy. But sure feck it, Ireland are certainties to win the whole thing anyway.

I've been incredibly lucky to miss the site crashes this week too, I was busy early Saturday afternoon and the weather (how bad has it been this week FFS!) meant I was late getting back and missed the first half Ireland-Italy when it first went down. And then was all ready to do the boxing last night, and was persuaded to lie down on the couch and watch a film instead, and it crashed again. The whole site was down Sunday night to Monday afternoon for an upgrade - these upgrades are great arent they..! Reading the forum, the 1.2 shot in the boxing traded odds against on Betdaq, and Ireland were 1.18ish I think and traded 4+ too. These things happen, but I cant remember the last crash before the "upgrade?" Then twice on the first busy day AFTER they do it. I have also discovered the most annoying screen on the internet ever.. unbelievably annoying, you have to sign out and sign back in when it happens too FFS, seething.













Six Nations looks wide open this year though, I thought England were crap(ish), but Wales were more crap. And Ireland were absolutely terrible. France fairly impressive scoring but not great defending, plus theyre fairly flaky and have to play Ireland and England away this year, they should beat us though really, not sure about England. Hard to have a strong opinion but I suppose the fact England have France in Twickenham might just give it to them. England could be going for the Grand Slam against us at The Aviva last weekend.

I've traded the games pretty OK, Ireland game was a bit lucky because I only backed them small when Italy scored the try, I'd have been in bother had I got home sooner. One regret was not going equal green on Wales-England, split second decision to let it go and sure Wales were 60s-100s less than a minute later. They never looked like winning and when I backed them it was for a trade not a straight bet so why I didnt go equal I've no idea, stupid (easy to say in hindsight mind).







And sad to see Leopardstown lose their Gold Cup meeting today, add that to losing Stephens Day and the day after that, must have a serious impact on their finances this year. You never get the same crowds turning up when its rescheduled, and both biggest days of the year gone south. Gives a betting day next week though because looking at www.livesportontv.com/ theres not that much on all week (that I'd be betting on anyway). I wont be around next weekend either, if anyone decides to check in no need to bother, Valentines weekend so one must build up credits so I can watch cricket at all sorts of wonderful hours during the year. I was actually joking the other night when Sky Atlantic was lunched saying that we may never leave the house again, they have 24, Prison Break, and now started watching Boardwalk Empire, they have everything.. but looking at the fixture list for the WC its a serious possibility I actually indeed may never leave the house again, and the IPL starts a few days after that - at least that starts at 12ish though, WC - 4AM and second game at 9AM, head in hands man, I was just thinking after this morning that was the end of the Aus wallet and early mornings, not so..

Back blogging on the 20th.