Amazing Scenes!

You'd have to feel a little (I said a little) bit sorry for draw backers. Sri Lanka bowled out for 82, after getting 400 first knock and with all the rain, is just incredible.















I bottled it a bit trading after laying 1.03, when I laid 1.03 I was actually hoping to have the chance to green at 1.1 or so, not have Eng winning! Although when it started to go I should have held longer.














It begs the age old question, is it really 'worth it' backing 1.01 or laying 1000 (Eng got matched at 1000 too). Just leaving aside the actual thinking of odds for a moment, even if you make it a 1/1,000 chance - is it still 'worth it' backing 1/100? I mean, if you have the €1,000 why do you need the tenner?

Obviously this is easy said after the event, but any number of 1.01s have been turned over at the French Open this week - Sport Is Made For Betting has most of the screen shots and 1/100 was turned over in GAA yesterday.

The only argument for it is the "well would you back 1/100 day becomes night?" But again just leaving that aside, if you have the €5k do you need the €50? Personally I wouldnt go around laying every 1.01 but backing it is insane IMO.

When I was down in the IFSC trading room, a figure of four 1.01s out of every 100 on horse racing were turned over, that was by someone who has worked in Betfair - the main problem was getting matched - as every time a market was set up (or opened) by Betfair bets would be fired in by bots in seconds to be first in the queue, so those stats never applied to the average person sitting there with a laptop.

The worst thing about lumping on short odds (and not being a millionaire) is it only takes one bad day at the office, and you never know when its coming..

29/05/2011

Quiet enough week on the gambling front in terms of volume, for no real reason other than I havent had a really strong opinion on anything. I skipped the IPL final to head into town for the Champions League yesterday, that worked out great, didnt it. Ah no, full credit to Barca, the best team won and no complaints - it was nice to see a few of the United players say vaguely the same thing on Twitter too, no point lying and sure there comes a time in life when you just have to hold your hands up and say too good. Barca were indeed too good.

Easy know where I get from laid back personality from anyway - my Dad rang me straight after the Rooney goal "What ya think?" Were gettin' feckin' hammered I'd take 1-1 now. "Ah we'll win, I wasnt worried when they scored knew we'd comeback." Wasnt feckin' worried? And I was the one drinking.

I was hoping Rooney wouldnt score, so then I could say that this has been the best thing hes done all week:









Banter! She has since put her tweets on private. That'll teach her.

Very boring few days at Cardiff for the 1st Test - probably lucky in the sense that we lost 42 overs before play had even begun so got a feel that it was going to be one of those things, but yeah its just been no craic watching. I did have a green position of €200ish but buggered it away laying the draw at 1.35 after day 2, then woke up to rain day 3 and sure that was that back to square one. Mistake laying overnight really, I cant control the weather though. On what I've seen so far, the Sri Lanka attack wont bowl out Eng twice, Jimmy Anderson injured is a massive blow though.. It'll be interesting to see if they bother declaring tomorrow - personally I'd bat all day and run the SL bowlers into the ground, next game comes up quick on Friday.






The strongest opinion (and position) I've had this week was on the IPL, although that was gubbed at 1.1, CSK managed to get 53 off the last three, head in hands. Not as bad as Mayo drawing with London today - London havent won a GAA Championship game since 1977 (I believe, radio said it), and with a draw they turned over a 1/100 SP! Has that ever happened before on GAA, seriously? I cant remember one. Dublin and Cork have certainly lost from 1.01 in running but a 1.01/1.02 SP?















We went to see Hangover on Friday night, so unfortunately couldnt attend Wales v Northern Ireland at the Aviva, maybe everyone went to see Hangover 2 - because the full attendance? 529. Seriously, 529. You'd get more people in Coppers on a Monday never mind a Friday.











I had a fairly big accumulator bet settle on Friday too with Sachin finishing top Mumbai batsman, theres only one SJ shop in Dublin/Kildare and I wanted €500 on him but they would only give me €100, I had that on and then put the other €400 on through trebles and accumulators - possibly not the best way to approach things but through some miracle everything managed to win so I've decided to invest in a horse. It'll be my 3rd time involved in a horse, the last one had to be put down which was a bit sad so decided to lease one for two years this time around, leasing is grand and handy really theres no outlay just pay the training fees every month, I think theres 14 or so of us. Her name is Seesea and Henry De Bromhead is the trainer, last run was 5th in a listed bumper Navan so she'll be plenty of fun for two years and sure she might even win.

I'm 23 on Saturday so that'll bring me up to 25 and sure be near retirement age at that stage (not really!), as I said the last one I owned had to be put down early in his career (after finishing a nice 2nd in a bumper too) so the leasing seems a great option and hopefully I can have more luck with this one. Its all relative really, you have to have a hobby or something to do in life and some people spend their money on cars, some on holidays, some spend their whole life drinking and smoking, some spend all their money on children, whatever. Being a gambler naturally I want to spend my money on horses because thats what I get enjoyment out of, I'd never own a horse in England though with the prizemoney - although with syndicates its more the banter side of things thats the main thing really. Shame the TV is so far behind the on course boys for in-running these days but c'est la vie.

Hopefully Recital can win the Derby and give me a good present on Saturday!

23/05/2011

Well, a waste of a week with my Broadband going down on Wednesday night, needed to have a new box sent out so only arrived today, why do these things always happen to me over the weekend? I got 3+ years out of the old router so I suppose thats good going, and the new one was free anyway.

Gutted to miss the 2nd Test Windies v Pak, draw hit the 1.7s on day 1 - although I did think the pitch would be a bit flat - still missing out on a relatively very easy play compared with other avenues on Betfair, draw is 6 with two days left.















Anyway nothing I can do about that, with no internet we embraced the outside world, went to The Curragh on Saturday and then to Portlaoise for the Kildare game yesterday, won very handy and play Meath now in the Quarters of Leinster, my good friend Tomas is from Meath so obviously beating them is of VITAL importance! Then all things being equal we play Dublin in the Semis, it was a double header yesterday so caught the second half of Laois v Longford - Dublin should hammer Laois really. Kildare went the whole second half without even conceding a point until 3 minutes into stoppage time, I think we'll beat Meath and then not sure about Dublin it might be too soon, I'd say if it was the semi of the All Ireland they'd probably bottle it but semi of Leinster isnt as important. Last two seasons Kildare have lost the first game of the Championship so winning is improvement regardless, I actually think the back-door style of playing every weekend helps us so wont be overly bothered to lose in Leinster. Beating Dublin would be great though..!

Happy Times

I love test cricket..







Long time readers will know its one of my favourite (probably number one favourite) on the list of things to do - lay the draw low on day 1 of a test match. It should never be near evens IMO, although there are exceptions, in Sri Lanka because of mad weather (I rarely trade there if ever) and India because the better option is probably to wait until day 3. I do have reservations for the rest of this series though, if anyone recalls Windies won a test early on against England, then produced absolute roads for the rest and it ended up staying 1-0, theres basically no money matched on the next test but already theres €1k+ waiting to be matched at 2.6.

Thats the first time on the blog I've been +€1k both sides - normally would have a strong opinion and have all green on one side but too hard to call with these two. An up and down test if ever there was one, the draw starting so short helped a lot, and then I just went with the idea of supporting whichever was outsider at the time while bowling for the main tactic, I did miss Friday though when Pak went from high 1.3s to 2.5 as I was in the cinema holding hands, watching Water For Elephants (alright but not a must see) which brings me nicely to my next piece of advice:



















Yes. Very important. Write that down.

Saturday is normally the night for holding hands however the Eurovision was on, you know, the night we all turn into professional Eurovision punters? Thats the one. I actually pre-listened to all the songs, not because of gambling research or anything just because obviously I have no life, I managed to win 50 quid though! Bottled it a bit with a UK top5 lay, was medium red, but it clashed with Windies v Pak so just clicked level - at that stage I was -€60ish Windies and +1.5k Pak (only time I really supported the batting team) and a ball hit the stumps but the bails didnt come off (miracle!), if a wicket went at that stage my book wasnt even half of what it ended up so choose to manage that. I regret going even now but c'est la vie.










Having seen The Dante still of the opinion Recital will be my horse for The Derby, I struggle to see Seville turning around the form with Carlton House - Seville was seemingly going well the whole way around, had prime position, had the rail, and Carlton House came and went past him fairly handy, impressive. Will a faster pace change things? Maybe, its hard to see it though he won well. Pour Mois form was franked today in France too although I didnt see the race, it seems like it'll be between the three of them and they'll head the market, I'm happy enough to back Recital - I think far too much has been made out of his hanging and that should make him a bigger price than a leading trial winner from a top stable would normally be on the day, Carlton House deserves to be favourite but sure 7/4 three weeks away doesnt appeal as a starting point, but anyway its my birthday that day and I dont want to be walking around all depressed over a horse losing so I'll try not to get too involved..!

Soccer shows up on the P&L this week too with the league finishing, at the start of the season I had €333 on United at 3.35, then after a few hours thought "hold on, I dont bet on football why am I doing this" laid it back at 3.3, then they won. Although if I'd have left it, I'm full sure they'd have lost. They havent been fantastic this season and win really because Chelsea and Arsenal have been worse rather than United being outstandingly amazing. During the El Clasicos this season I had to sit through all the "anti-football" shite posted on Facebook status' while oppositely there was praise for Mourinho on Twitter - thinking about it, IMO the only way United can beat Barca CL final is anti-football.

El Clasico this season is the perfect example, Madrid try to play them like-for-like and get stuffed 5-0, then defend for 90mins and draw 1-1, defend for another 90mins and win in ET to lift the Spanish Cup. Then things were going grand in the CL Semi before the red card and sure that was that. Although you have to put up with all the "anti-football" nonsense at the time, you know the way Liverpool fans say "weve won it 5 times" and United fans say "weve won it 19 times" I've never heard any of them say "weve won it 5 times, but do you remember the time we played poorly and didnt deserve to win?" No, definitely not, no one says that.. the way the game is played will be forgotten in a week, the name on the trophy is always there. IMO United get hammered if they try to outplay Barca, while stopping them playing and trying to score on the break (a la Real Madrid) might not look good but its proven to be the best option, or the 'least worst' option when facing Barca anyway. Its probably not the United way of playing, but the last final Barca won 2-0 so that didnt work either..

08/05/2011

Well, very quiet week online what with Punchestown being on. Obviously over-joyed to see St Nic back to winning ways at Chester too, completely delighted, fair enough Harris Tweed is no world beater but if he lost you'd be writing him off for the future (if you hadnt already after The Curragh run), just love that turn of foot though, woosh! Winning at Chester is still a million miles away from winning the Arc, however all things being equal and well if he turns up on the day he'll be nowhere near 33/1 and I'll be in a good position, I cant control him winning/losing just put myself in the good position with figures, fingers crossed he stays sound now and has a clear run at the year. In hindsight the ground at The Curragh was obviously horrendous and it being first run of the season found him out, that turn of foot will likely be a big advantage the way they race in France, long way away but sure I can plan.

I remember writing here I wasnt really and truly expecting him to win the 2000G, although ended up backing him (love is blind) but not for much, so IMO anyway, the only run hes had that has been disappointing has been The Curragh and hes pretty much put that behind him now, so plenty to look forward to and hopefully this time around I get a run for big odds, couldnt go through another Derby episode anyway! Speaking of the Derby, I was in Leopardstown today to see Recital, I recorded it and watched it back when home - completely disagree with Matt Chapman on that he has "no chance." Alright he hung like a gate into the rail but only after he went past fairly handily and put 3L between him and the rest, then acted like a right monkey. Plenty of positives in the sense that he won easily and KF got some practice on him, negatives are obviously the camber at Epsom with his hanging but I think he'll benefit greatly from not being in front so soon.. I wouldnt be rushing to back 6/1 though, but until we see the Dante I dont think its fair to give him too much stick - it could be far worse, he looked a monkey when hanging but at least he went past them, won the race, and then hung.. it'd be worse if he didnt want to go past.

I havent done many IPL games this week but continue to not be as fluent as the first two weeks anyway, many of the weekend games had 1.0x one side by half way and I have a bit of a family issue going on at the moment, although nothing in this house (thankfully!) and no one is dying (thankfully!), just the phone rang during a game yesterday and I ended up talking for 40 odd minutes, that type of thing. Not complaining at all, but its the type of thing where you lose a day or you lose a game you know. Its by far the biggest advantage of gambling and "being your own boss" (for want of a better way of wording it) that you can drop everything and go help or do something else whenever you want to. I dont like leaving games/events mid-way through them though or having to share the room while the market is fast moving, I read some things about gambling/trading being lonely, but I'm the opposite - I like to be left on my own, then re-engage with the world when its finished. Twitter is a great help during games though, when The Ashes was on and I was up all hours, every single one of my friends were asleep but Twitter was buzzing with everyone interested.. maybe its not "real" interaction but it serves its purpose.

Also, away from gambling, and I hate to depress everyone (reading it will depress you), but IMO the Morgan Kelly article this week is an essential read for every Irish person. Whether you agree/disagree with him, the man has a serious track record of being right and is held in high esteem by more people than not. The picture he paints is no craic, minus craic, but I think its good to be aware of these things when people like him say them, like a tipster in profit, you listen to what he says, might not follow but you listen and take on board anyway. On another point, The Queen is coming to Ireland soon and we have a few gobshites who dont want her to visit, obviously still living in the past - whatever, I'd imagine more people in Ireland would hold more hatred of the UK than of the USA, well whats that old saying, you do find out who your friends really are when things goes tits up..

The IMF, which believes that lenders should pay for their stupidity before it has to reach into its pocket, presented the Irish with a plan to haircut €30 billion of unguaranteed bonds by two-thirds on average. Lenihan was overjoyed, according to a source who was there, telling the IMF team: “You are Ireland’s salvation.”

The deal was torpedoed from an unexpected direction. At a conference call with the G7 finance ministers, the haircut was vetoed by US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner who, as his payment of $13 billion from government-owned AIG to Goldman Sachs showed, believes that bankers take priority over taxpayers. The only one to speak up for the Irish was UK chancellor George Osborne, but Geithner, as always, got his way. An instructive, if painful, lesson in the extent of US soft power, and in who our friends really are.

I'm sure the same people who have a problem with The Queen coming will be going on holidays to America, cause America is great isnt it? No, not great at helping us avoid state bankruptcy, anyway.

(EDIT 09/05/2011. A few emails and a bit of Youtube research informs me the same people who are protesting against The Queen are protesting against Obama, too. My next three words after this paragraph were "anyway fuck it" because sure each to their own. I've opened pandoras box havent I!)

Anyway fuck it, we surely have at least two years left of going on the piss and having the craic before it all falls apart, sure "it'll be grand." By 2014, Ireland will owe a quarter of a trillion, my calculator doesnt even go up that far FFS.

In other news, Manchester United have now all but won the league and will overtake Liverpool for league titles. Liverpool are currently 16/1 to win a trophy next season, for those of you reading who dont fully understand betting - if you put on €10 at 16/1, you will lose €10.

01/05/2011

ITV decided to show touring cars again today instead of the IPL games so off to the golf course I went with the sun shining. Only when we got there noticed just how bad the wind was, and after an 8 (yes, eight) at the 1st I was stood there thinking "I wonder can you bet in-running on touring cars.." Stood on the 4th tee I managed to knock it straight over the 2nd green (dont ask) but somehow ended up on the 1st fairway with a perfect Tiger-esque view through trees straight to the green. Managed to finish +7, which is my worst round ever, the wind was ridiculous though (thats my excuse and I'm sticking to it!).

Anyway, much like the wind on the golf course - really struggling with the IPL pitches this week, theyve slowed down immensely and I'm finding it difficult to trade. Tuesday was the only ray of light +€250 which was won 7 down with 3 balls to go, I was in Fairyhouse on Monday and picked up €30ish there, so to be +€300 Tuesday evening with the whole week to go, kind of disappointed to "only" finish +€138 - but its better than losing, definitely.

I lost €70 on a match which looked "fixed" although it wasnt - horrible to think like that but some things being played out in front of you just leads to it. I tend to be of the opinion people screaming "fix" are sore losers, but obviously there are events which are indeed "fixed," maybe 1 out of 1,000 or whatever I dont know. I had backed the winning team, thought they werent trying (not a shot played in anger), switched, then they ended up eventually winning - so technically I was "right" in the first place but ended up losing money due to how they played it, what can you do though. And I lost €40 and €30 laying low odds - which seemed a good idea at the time but now I'm sat here thinking "Oh FFS why did you lay 1.08 for €500 why not €200 or something."

Happy enough in the main, its just with the pitches slowing down it tends to lead to lower odds for the defending side - which really doesnt work out for me, just a personal thing, obviously given the choice I always love to start the second innings with both teams around evens or within 20 ticks. 1.3s to defend a biggish score is never going to work for me because I'm never backing it (especially in IPL) and then will probably end up laying low odds after a wicket (like this week) and losing. I suppose thats one of the flaws of only betting second innings, but I think the past couple of days its just trying to get adjusted to the pitches and a rate thats acceptable to chase. And obviously the collapses, both innings, dont help.

Anyway, great week for horse racing with Nina winning the National over here, that got plenty of coverage, and how good was Frankel yesterday, wooosh! I kind of agree with Jim McGrath though, that style of running will hardly help him in the long run, basically he surely cant hare off like that if he runs in the Derby (although its looking unlikely, out to 16s on Betfair for Epsom as I type).. hes a very impressive horse and I dont want to say anything bad about him at all, I suppose theres no real negative about him if hes not going for the Derby, he can seemingly go as fast as he wants over a mile. And delighted to see Together finish 2nd today, I was raving about her last season and she made me look a mug many, many, many times but she turned out to be the best filly for the Guineas - which is what I was saying in the first place, sure whats running six times in between and not winning between friends anyway..!