Discipline

Its been a weird sort of day today even though I havent done anything on Betfair, started off brilliantly with our new horse, Kitty Dillon, having her first run in a p2p this morning and finishing third - everyone was delighted with that and she'll have learned loads being held up and coming through them and was given a relatively easy time of it, at least we know now we'll get a few decent days with her when she gets to the track, it'd have been terrible if she finished last this morning or something. Then an hour or so later you hear Gary Speed was found hanging in his own house, very sad news. Its nearly always said when things like this happen but it does put life into perspective, you think of all the daily things we give out or moan about it, when we dont appreciate what we have really. I complain when the weather is cold FFS, when the wind is blowing too much on the golf course, its daft really, all the nonsense we talk about pales into insignificance compared to what some have to deal with on a daily basis.

Anyway, going back to last Sunday, I ended up laying Misha B for bottom two - I wanted to on Saturday but the market took her out to odds against, then Sunday after posting she went back odds on so was happy enough laying after the sob story. Its hard to find an angle tonight, I actually dont like any of them, Misha and Janet are both odds on bottom two and I would lay them but the other three seem pretty strong - there must be a fair chance Janet will get the sympathy vote which Misha got last week, problem is they'll probably drag each other down, not confident enough to put money down anyway.







Then up bright eyed and brushy tailed for the finish of the test on Monday, it worked out well in the sense that Aus won in the end, not before going out to 12 though, and not before the draw hit 1.3s, Saffers traded odds on too, it was crazy..!







On my screen shot last week all three were sitting at 2.3+ so whatever you backed it could have worked out well. I've been doing Pak v Lanka too but having some troubles, erm, almost confusing - at the end of each game I've thought "I could have won more there" while at the same time thinking "lucky I didnt lose a fortune.." I did make exactly the same mistake as I did on Eng v India though in ruining a good book, going from this..






To this in under 10 minutes..






Its that top up again, exactly as Eng v India. Erm, I dont know how to fix it really or avoid it because sure if you think the odds are good youre gonna back it, at the same time the hard work has already been done for the most part at that stage and as I said the last time, if it goes go tits up without the top up, can go €100ish equal at around evens and its still a good days work, whereas with the top up its back to square one if it does go wrong with no cushion. The conclusion was I was probably being greedy, but its hard to actually 'fix' the idea that I shouldnt top up when I think a team are big in price - just it always goes wrong for me! The odd thing about it is as a first bet into a market, I would probably never go near the top up odds, most times the first move into the market is odds against or 1.6+ or something, you know I wouldnt be bothered backing a 1.3 shot first up.

I got a good comment last week on discipline, and basically how I managed to only bet/trade on certain sports compared to others. Its got to the stage where I know what I can do and I know what I cant - and I can accept what I cant do, example being I know I'm fairly shit at trading soccer, a shame because I love watching it but I just cant trade it. But what I normally do is, ever see those desk calendar thingys - Sunday night or Monday morning I'll look at the schedule (livesportontv.com is handy at times) and pencil in the games I want to do.. obviously last week I put in Saffers v Aus as a priority and then things like India v Windies as a 'maybe' and things like that.

So when I'm sitting at my desk, and on Betfair, I'm here for a reason - to work on whatever game - and when theres nothing on my schedule to do I wont go near Betfair, I never ever log into Betfair for entertainment, if I've a blank day (and there are a good few in the winter) I go off and find something else to do, wouldnt even think of Betfair.

You know people always tend to say its ignorant when you dont follow all the news or current affairs happening around you, but I cant follow and do everything on Betfair - so if something happens in the tennis, its blunt but I really dont care, its none of my business, I can only care about so much stuff that goes on. Its a running joke here that 'I live in a bubble' but I'm not an expert on all sports so I have to live in a little (sports I can do) bubble to make things work.

The only way I can compare it to something is watching the news - if something happens in say France, sure who cares I live in Ireland, I wouldnt have a feckin' clue what happened in a different country if it wasnt for the internet. Now thats probably ignorant, but same sort of thing with Betfair, if something happens on Snooker, sure who cares because I'm a cricket/boxing/GAA trader. Its impossible to do everything.

Obviously over time things change and I have to change with them or I get left behind, things get taken away from me, a lot more so than given, horse racing got taken away with the start of people going to the course - that was more so to do with the technology that allowed it really, so doing it from home became unworkable (for me anyway). The darts, someone started going to all the Premier League games and was miles in front of the Betfair clock, that made it equally very hard to trade - you make a mistake youre punished without getting a chance to cancel and you do something right youre not matched. Boxing, Prizefighter changed the rules this year so that the draw is made live on Sky before the fights, I can completely understand it from a non-betting viewers point of view, but not giving us the markets until two minutes before the off was such a killer for liquidity. But sure I just dont put them down on the desk calendar and maybe put down an extra cricket match or GAA match (in the summer) and then instead of being at the desk for Fontwell on a Monday I'm off playing golf, gym, visiting the Grandparents going odd jobs for them, having the usual date night, whatever, and I'm at my desk another time when theres something on thats fair to do (in the market sense of fair).

As for staking/chasing discipline, well I've never been a chaser - but clocking in and clocking out does help, because its like finishing work, I just go after the game is over without even thinking. Obviously its easier because there might be only one game I want to do most days, but when its over win or lose I clock off without thinking - IMO naturally horse racing is the most 'chasy' sport because theres a race every five minutes or so, even then I was never into chasing. Its just been imprinted into me that gambling never finishes because it just goes on and on and on, so being up/down at the end of a day is irrelevant - but I say irrelevant and then if given the chance to be level I always take it rather than risk losing, but I'm getting more risk averse as I get older, and try and pick positions that if things go wrong I can go level and if things go right I win - again, thats something thats changed with Betfair changing too, you can be risk averse on a test match no problem, you cant really be risk averse on a 5F sprint at The Curragh.

In terms of staking, I have always used the 'feel it yourself' idea that at the given time I'll pick the stake anywhere between €50 and €500 on how confident I am at the time, its just the way I've always done it. Most of betting/trading is down to what suits the person rather than whats viewed as "normal" anyway, you have people who are obsessed with the word 'value' and you have people like me who never use it (I HATE the word!), its all just down to what suits the individual.

20/11/2011

I'll try keep this a little short because I have a touch of the flu. Quiet enough week on the P&L because I've been concentrating on the Saffer v Aus 2nd test, and currently have this going into tomorrow..







Its been good..! All three outcomes have traded odds on, and all three have traded 9+ I think too. Erm, tomorrow is tough to price up - I think the draw is short but we have lost the last session a couple of times this week and if play is slow tomorrow and they need 10 overs after tea that would be a worry, I'd have Aus shorter and Saffers longer but theres not a huge difference there - I wouldnt disagree strongly with anyone for saying either are a bet tbh.

Aus are going at 3.8 per over atm which would lead you to think they need another 45(ish) overs to win, which is why the draw, albeit short, is understandable enough - bad light is going to be a huge factor so much depends on the time it arrives really, which is anyones guess, then lose an early wicket and they might slow down a little and need more overs to chase it.

I'd probably favour Aus if given a €500 free bet but obviously dont want an overnight position and waiting for conditions in the morning, I trust Ponting, Clarke and Hussey - wouldnt want Haddin walking in with them needing anything more than 50 though. An added factor with me too, with no real gambling logic, is I've traded it from bed yesterday and today feeling shite with man flu, I've got to +€2.6k and dont want to make a complete bollocks of it now, it would break my heart! Thats probably the main reason why I havent added €555 to the results and gone small red on the draw.

Anyway that'll be next weeks P&L - this week is just a very quiet €32.72.. I did have a max liability lay on Sri Lanka at 1.4, and the market flipped twice, but muggins here only made €30. My own fault solely rather than events being out of my hands, and the second game was during the test so that wasnt given any real focus.

Amazing Scenes

Crazy week on Betfair - the Saffer v Aus test match was mental, you thought it was bad Saffers getting rolled for 96, half an hour later Aus were getting rolled for 47, having been 21/9! The lowest score in the history of test cricket is 26 by the way, but anyway, obviously I didnt help my cause my sleeping in and missing the Saffer collapse - I'm not sure if this is true or not, but its great if it is..








On a more serious note about missing the collapse, I've fallen into a bit of a 'lazy' attitude towards Betfair since I got my cast off and I'm going to have to snap out of it starting tomorrow. Understandable really not being able to do anything for three weeks and then getting free rein to do whatever you want again, but next week I'm setting an alarm and no more swanning around. If I learned anything its I rarely win doing things half arsed.

So I ended up down €100 on cricket this week, but got that back on Tiger going low in Australia so it wasnt so bad - out of curiosity I went back through Excel, the last time I had a losing week on Betfair was the 3rd of July, but that was the weekend of Haye v Klitschko and I had won the 'Go The Distance' bet with William Hill, the last time I had an over all losing week was the 23rd of May - had to update records on the Monday because my Broadband went down on the Wednesday that week (must be crap at mobile betting, add it to the list!) Obviously with the England v India series being so easy (relatively easy compared to everything else) those records are fairly misrepresented, and theres been plenty of weeks with +€2, +€5, and +€7 P&Ls but if I was picking one thing this year I've got better at its not taking as much risks in the sense of leaving myself in positions where things can go very wrong very fast, I'm still making wrong moves (because obviously everyone does) but I'm getting away with level when I do. And sure if ya dont lose, ya can only win..! (Well, in theory..)

But anyway, Tiger wasnt on TV this week for a few holes so I could snipe with information from Twitter (you can that with cricket too, amazing tool Twitter), and had this:










But then, you know, 'new' Tiger is a bit of a mug compared to old Tiger so I squared, somewhat unhappily at the time, but it worked out with him finishing third, and my Aussie Wallet got a run out for the first time in months.










One more thing to highlight if you havent noticed, Amelia Lily has been brought back to X Factor after Frankie getting the boot, shes currently trading as favourite having traded at 1000. I know its easy to say now, and sure enough I wasnt thinking this at the time either, but laying 1000 on someone who wasnt kicked off through public vote is very chancy, there was always a slim chance (less than 1000/1 anyway) they could bring those four who didnt face the public vote back at whatever stage. Its not like a horse antepost market where you can pick up 'free money' sometimes, in a market where they can change the rules at any stage, laying 1000 is scary (to me anyway). There must be some huge green and red books out there.

My opinion on low odds has always been the same, if something is 1.01 and fair enough it might be a 1/500 chance, but if I have €1,000 I hardly need a fecking tenner do I, I'd rather have an even tenner on something random in the next market. Its always a much discussed topic with different opinions that one.

Finally A Big One

He finally did it..!



Last night was great in town, shame I wasnt there but having said that I had no intention of going. Delighted for the horse more so than anything else, even given the history with the youngest jockey angle and all the father/son combo stuff, hes been called a fair few names at this stage and sure (IMO anyway) the only thing he ever did wrong was get sent off a near odds on hyped up favourite for the 2000G (and that form even turned out alright in the end). Some turn of foot when things go well, been a good season all things considered winning the Coronation, good run in the Arc and now winning at the Breeders Cup, only small let down was the King George but that turned into a bit of a farce with the early pace and poor Rewilding breaking down. Ah, just delighted for him to win! Woooosh..!

Anyway, its been a quiet week as foreseen with the Sky schedule, I tried doing the Zim v NZ test but it wasnt on TV and I hate trading on links, but must have been one of the best day 5s ever though, I didnt do the whole test but I think Zimmers went from 55s into 1.8ish, NZ out to 12ish before winning, and I think the draw was 1.5 or thereabouts with an hour left too.






Small note on Betfair being pretty poor managing the market, I paid commission with it at 1.01 they left it open so long (so that was handy for me) but got to feel sorry for all those who left money from 1.5 to 1.01 when the last wicket went down. Shite service really, put it this way, imagine if it happened on a soccer market.. wait you dont even have to imagine that because it would never happen!








Nearly 10M matched its not like its a small market either, there will always be snipers but they left it for ages. Suppose its a perfect example of Betfair rules really, there are no rules, kill or be killed and everyone for themselves.

Hopefully next week will be more eventful, I get bored after a while with very little on. Sometimes I miss the racing because its always on every day but then I remember the time advantage other people have so just have to think staying away from it is actually making me money. Its not really a bad thing missing it as the BHA still seem intent on ruining it anyway, "I feel sorry for the owners and a little for the sport, too, because I used to think the racing in this country was the best place to be riding in the world and you worry about what every other county in the world now thinks of you." AP McCoy speaking today.