30/10/2011

Well, absolutely amazingly fantastic week this week with a smashing profit of €2.49, I've got this game by the bollocks! WHOS THE DADDY.

So, anyway, it was a week of winning and losing.. there was only three cricket games though and the liquidity on Prizefighter was terrible so I never bothered with that - having the draw live is really ruining it IMO, it probably makes sense from a non-betting point of view but not giving us the markets until 2 minutes before the off is a terrible idea.







And I got caught up in that England collapse on Tuesday, theres not much you can say about it really, a top team (someone that isnt Bangladesh or Windies for example) shouldnt go from 129/0 to 176AO. I had this book beforehand anyway..






Something along those lines would always be my book (when things go well) just because its the way I always do things by leaving all green on the team I fancy, whether its right or wrong is a matter of opinion but its the way I do things anyway and have always done apart from when I dont have such a strong opinion. So thats grand - and the plan from there then is if things start to go tits up I can go level at €150ish green at evens, and thats still a good day. The only reason I finished with nothing is because I topped up on England at 1.5s after they lost two wickets, but again no regrets there because it seemed a cracking price at the time, it didnt last long though..! Its just one of those things you know, anybody that seen an England collapsing coming like that is a better man than me. Certain things happen and theres not much you can do.

Other than that, what I won on Saffers v Aus was given back on the T20 yesterday. The better news is I have my arm back, success! And even managed to get two rounds in this week too and it felt OK, got 90 first go back at Bellewstown off scratch on Thursday, anything under 100 would have done I only got the cast thingy off Wednesday, and then today played 9 at Elm Hall, got back to normality a bit and was on 34 with the 18th to go, and well, lesson learned about the clocks going back..


















It was fun playing 16 and 17 blind though! Looking at the Sky schedule for next week I think I have a blank week, but surely something will pop up, hopefully. I know theres sport coming in the early morning from 'round the world but I'm desperately trying to stay on "normal time" for as long as possible, there will come a time I have to switch but hopefully it can be pushed back a few further weeks. I have ten times more fun being nocturnal but really my life goes to pot, theres only so much nighttime gambling and drinking/clubbing/casino-ing the body can take.. Just think about it when youve a blank day of trading, youre very limited in what options you have during the night, great fun though, in saying that I'm ten times more healthy, and win ten times more, in the summer when life is relatively normal, I say relatively because this house could never ever be deemed normal..

23/10/2011

Its been a good week. Mostly due to the weather over in South Africa, everyone was watching the clean up operation via an online stream with no comms so it was hard enough to see exactly what was going on, but I managed to clock they were turning the covers over (or something to that effect) while taking them off - which meant they had to go forwards then backwards, which looked like they were putting them back on, but they werent they were just turning them over. There were four covers, they did it with each one, and every time they looked as if they were going back on the market was swinging from 1.7ish one side to 1.6ish the other, it was great..!






Then the India v England games have been good for trading, its following the same pattern as the English summer really except India have turned into English England and England have turned into English India, India have started odds on, England have traded odds on - India have gone from 2.5 to 1.08 then back to 2.1, even when caught you get a chance to recover you know, theyve been fair markets.






The whip debate continues to rumble on. Ruby Walsh got banned for a fantastic ride yesterday - but I think its "good" that the A-listers are getting banned, and I use the word "good" in the sense that its only when they get banned that something might get done about it, example being the jockeys didnt want to go out for the following race and only did when the trainers were called to the stewards room (apparently, or something like that). You know, with the greatest respect, if a nobody gets banned no one really cares, but when you get the A-listers start getting banned you start to get a bit of support and more of the smaller jockeys look to them to lead the way, so hopefully it might get sorted out soon. Although I wouldnt be holding my breath with the BHA.

Couple of stories to note this week, one being Betfair might have plans to turn into fixed-odds bookmaker (aside to the exchange obviously), I dont really like the idea - as everyone knows with books its all highly likely to end up with closed accounts etc and going down that general road. I dont put any pass on the figures given by Bloomberg - but its the idea thats the worrying bit. We shall see sure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/betfair-may-boost-profit-with-fixed-odds-sports-bets-numis-says.html

Betfair Group Plc (BET), the world’s biggest person-to-person online betting exchange, could increase profit by more than 50 percent with a new fixed-odds sports betting plan, according to Numis Securities.

In April, Betfair is planning to offer fixed-odds betting alongside its exchange bets to increase choice, a step that could help increase its dominance in commercial sports betting, analyst Ivor Jones said in a note to investors.

The new system could let Betfair tap into the advantages offered by fixed-odds betting, such as greater selection, earlier bets and more multiple wagers, Jones said. Betfair’s betting exchanges allow customers to bet against each other, rather than against the house, as at traditional bookmakers such as William Hill Plc (WMH) and Ladbrokes Plc. (LAD)

“If Betfair came to dominate fixed odds sports betting, in the same way it currently dominates overall sports betting, then it has the potential to more than double group profits,” Jones wrote, adding that the calculations are “highly speculative.’ He has a “buy” recommendation on Betfair.

In June, Betfair said it’s developing an “integrated” sports betting product that will allow it to offer more bets during games and other wagers.

And another story about our good friend Mario Balotelli - he set his house on fire this week by letting off fireworks, wait for it, inside his bathroom.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/oct/22/mario-balotelli-house-fire-fireworks

Mario Balotelli's remarkable capacity for self-inflicted problems resurfaced on the eve of the Manchester derby when he had to escape from his burning house after a fire caused by letting off fireworks in the bathroom in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Two fire crews using breathing apparatus put out the flames after being called to Balotelli's house just before 1am on Saturday to deal with what has been described as "a substantial fire" on the first floor. The property, in Mottram St Andrew, Cheshire, sustained serious fire and smoke damage, and the police were also called – in part to ensure Balotelli did not go back into the house. The striker is said to have been reluctant to leave his belongings and, at one point, to have run back inside to recover a quantity of money and a suitcase.

Still didnt stop him scoring two today against United..!

I'm looking forward to next week, will be hopefully back to normal by the weekend in regards to the arm with a visit to the doctor this week - I miss golf and the gym terribly. Healthy body, healthy mind and all that - its important to have a big list of things to do away from gambling to relax and get away from it, that makes it far more easier to forget what happened yesterday, be it good or bad, and start every day blank, the best thing about gambling is theres always a tomorrow to look forward to, because sporting events and opportunities are never ending!

16/10/2011

Well, its been a good week considering the body pain from falling. The blog name obviously lends itself to the idea I was bound to fall and injure myself at some stage! I have to stop laughing at other people falling too, this is what happens when youve been brought up watching Youve Been Framed. Dont think I've ever mentioned this but I got the name for the blog from the Apres Match piss take of the Carlsberg Gaffer Falls ad, and I thought Gambler, dont take things seriously either, Gambler Falls..





Anyway, felt a bit robbed on the boxing last night to be honest, I had it very close, everybody on my Twitter timeline had it close, and Dave Parris comes up with a 5 round verdict, you can always nearly tell when you search and see even non-gamblers think it was a rubbish call..


















As I said last night, if it was 1 or 2 rounds you know you can understand as usual because it was close, but 117-112 is just a joke. What can you do though, the worst thing about it was the market knew too - how Bellew was staying between 5 and 6 while the rounds seemed so close I dont know. Generally I dont like leaving things on Betfair in the hands of other people, because youre always faced with total gobshitery - but what can you do with the odds.

The cricket has gone better, except for England going from 111/2 to 174AO, that was a near enough straight line killer.















Funny thing being away from home, if that happened in England - they would have just shrugged the first wicket off and kept going but instead collapse. I got out of it, but only because I had a handy position when it happened, I dont mind finishing with a tenner because I wasnt thinking about taking the €300ish green at the time anyway, if they went at 6.5 for 10 that left 137 off 20 with 8 wickets in hand which seemed very do-able, thats what I was working off in Excel at the time but sure things change quickly, as ever.







I want to say something about the new whip rule this week, but I dont know where to start.. its a shambles altogether. As a racing man, or ex-racing man probably better put now, I cant understand why the whip is deemed cruel - I'm of the opinion that every "racing man/woman" can look at a race and SEE for themselves if the jockey has been overly excessive in his/her use of the whip, when you watch enough races you easily spot these things, IMO Jamie Spencer in the last few hundred yards on Cape Blanco was overly harsh..



Now obviously there are different rules in the USA from the UK - but no one likes to see that, when the horse had already won, but the point is you very rarely see things like that happen in the UK anyway, the ironic thing is racehorses are probably the best looked after animals on the earth. I would argue too (just for nuisance sake) that if the whip is deemed cruel, well then surely making the horses jump fences and hurdles is cruel - I've never seen a horse have to be put down from the whip, but I have seen them put down from falling. Where do you stop? Making them run fast is cruel, and on, and on, and on..

The problem with trying to please "the man down in Tesco" (as Matt Chapman put it this week), is that the man down in Tesco hasnt got the first fucking clue about racing. Changing the rules to appease these people is nonsense IMO, but then again what do you expect from the BHA. It all started to go downhill when they watered down the midweek racing to make it so weak, the prizemoney doesnt help then because of such volume of racing at low levels, and then you have courses putting on bands after racing to try and get people in the gates - clearly missing the point and not attracting people for just the pure racing - but when theyre given five handicaps and two claimers what can they do? The days of horse racing being the only available betting vehicle are long gone so you wont attract the masses like say soccer does, its a minority sport - so cater for that and please the people who are interested in it, dont ruin the game to please a few outsiders, run the game to please the minority - the loyal core supporters.

When the man down in Tesco who does one bet a year on the Grand National says the whip is cruel, he should be looked square in the eyes and told he doesnt know anything about the sport and to go fuck himself. FACT. Now you could do it more politely but they need to be told to stay out of other peoples business.

I actually care about this a lot because I'm faced every day coming from Ireland with "cricket is so boring" .. "have you ever watched a game" .. "No.." .. "Well then WTF do you know about it." Same thing. Racing people can be the only ones to judge what is and what isnt deemed cruel, not outsiders. The man in Tesco can keep his bollocks opinions in Tesco thanks, we'll go racing.

Out Of Order

I'm bunched.


















Movement with the hand will be an issue for trading, but the gist of it is basically I was jogging yesterday morning on grass in the local park, as you do, went to cross a path walkway and somehow completely lost my left leg and went down on my head.. ended up in Hermitage hospital for a cat scan and hooked up to an IV for two odd hours and everything.









I'm house bound for five days with concussion and casted for two weeks plus, so I'm not sure how the betting/blogging will go. But its only when youre being lay down in the machine to see if youve done damage to your brain you realise money and everything all pales into insignificance really, when youre going to bed at night you cant replace the people around you, regardless of what you have.

It was probably the scariest moment of my life not being able to see after hitting my head, I had to walk back to the house somehow too because I had no phone with me, did it off memory because I cant remember getting home, I remember my vision was so bad when I stood in front of the mirror to see where the blood was coming from I couldnt see my reflection, at all, then couldnt see the numbers on the phone to ring for help, I've had better Sunday mornings to be honest now. But anyway, I'm still alive!

And, sitting waiting for the cat scan, to see if you need brain surgery, bleeding on the brain, your head is all fussy and you cant see properly, you feel weird from the IV and your hand/arm has already been X-rayed and wrapped, your loved one turns to you and she says "at least were getting some value out of our VHI plan now Stephen" Oh yeah, same time again next week yeah..! Oddly enough we both started laughing and then nurses rushed in because they thought we were crying. You have to pay on the day (can claim back obviously) but Hermitage is a top, top place. First class service.

Paris

I'll try keep this short, trying to get on with the painting - The Arc this weekend was a great excuse not to start! Hopefully the whole redecoration business is finished by the 13th when international cricket is back.

Anyway, Paris was fantastic yesterday in the sun, I've lost interest in racing this year to the point where I dont even check to see whos running these days but I think we'll always go to The Arc every year, great value for the racing and great course - I think we'll always go to Epsom too, but only because it always falls on my birthday weekend, my days at Cheltenham and Royal Ascot are over I reckon.

I thought St Nic ran an absolute blinder, my heart hasnt pumped like it did turning in for a while, I thought he was going to win for a while. Then at the end I was thinking just hold on for the place but they always finish fast in France and sure he just lost out finishing 5th, still a cracking run, and while not good enough to collect cant help but still be proud of him.

I'm going to defend Heffernan on So You Think - not because I think he did well, but because IMO he only did what he was told to do, if I was blaming someone I'd blame APOB miles before blaming Heffernan. Given the wide draw he had limited options though, bounce out fast, cut across and end up nearly making the running or come out and drop in behind. He was obviously told to drop in IMO, and sure once thats done you'll always need a dream run through and it didnt work out.

Its a real catch 22 situation when you think about it from the jockeys perspective, it must be intimidating having Coolmore dictate to you what to do - so you go out there and if you do something that isnt what they told you and lose, you know you'll get hung, drawn and quartered (Spencer didnt last long). Then on the other hand, you do what they tell you, and lose - like Ryan Moore at Royal Ascot on SYT, APOB takes the blame and the jockey was only "following orders." Its easy to think about it like a punter, but the jockey is only basically doing what hes told by his employer just like any other job. In an ideal world, you'd let the horse bounce out and then let the jock decide what pace and position to take, but thats never going to happen with APOB.

But anyway, thankfully my days of going over a race, analysing and studying it are long gone, huzzah! Its only when you leave it you realise how much guess work is involved compared to in-running trading on other sports.

I said last week, with the house up in a heap I'd keep things under €200ish - that lasted three days, I cracked Thursday..






I was in the process of laying off when a wicket went down, but instead topped up, things change quickly..

Very disappointed with the rain on Friday, I had my best book of the week, ironic thing being England where in the middle of a heatwave, and its raining in India..







I always like backing the chasing team at Bangalore, its one of the best chasing grounds in the world IMO - its where Ireland chased against England at the WC too, hitting sixes always looks so effortless.

Was a bit daft on the boxing but only lost 12 quid thankfully, forgot I wouldnt be able to access Betfair in France so left zero on Rees and red on the unknown guy (to me anyway), it finished a draw.. lucky it wasnt a couple of hundred. Very awkward result for Rees on his first defense.

Also a small word on X Factor, the live shows start Saturday, the market has clocked the fact no person should be 300s, like Wagner last year, but its hard to find an obvious act that will be this years Jedward/Wagner. Everyone will be looking for the winner but theres more money in getting the fellow who goes from 100+ to single figures, sadly the market knows this now and doesnt have anyone 100+.. I think if there is to be a cult following of someone not good at singing it'll come from Louis four, Louis is obviously very shrewd, but I think atm the person he picked for it (Goldie Cheung) has pulled out - maybe she knew! It could be Johnny Robinson, whos 70 on Betfair, but realistically how many weeks does he have to stay in to get a good trade from 70s, as I said the market has clocked on a fair bit.

Last year Betfair didnt have a bottom two or three market either every week (and when they did they voided it) which ruined things a fair bit, the funny shit one will be odds on in that so it was always a great lay for the first few weeks. Point to remember too - singers towards the front early on always do badly, and its not an actual singing contest until the last five or six, as Louis would say "youve got likability" its whoever people like, Wagner proved that last year and remember when Simon saved Jedward (against a favourite at the time too) but apparently he "hated" them, votes and newspaper headlines = $$$$.