29/11/2010

Just sort out The Ashes market now its settled, cant believe both teams only ended up with 11 wickets each, and the draw is already 11/10 for the next test - on what is a historically flat pitch. Horrible situation really, who in their right mind wants to back a draw at around evens before a test even starts.. but then again on what weve seen who'd lay it because it'll take a fair bit to move it. Not something I'd stay up all night for anyway, and judging by the ground empty last night its not something people want to go to either. A bit of excitement please? We shall see.

I'm heading down to buy a PS3 tomorrow. Selling out on my beliefs what! The hardest thing to do was fill the gap between 11 and 12 before the 1st session last week, playing games is gay IMO but jesus its something to do isnt it without feeling sleepy by lying on the couch. Its like today, nothing until El Clasico tonight, which is brilliant when it happens, but its the hanging around for it thats the hard part. The cold weather might have something to do with not wanting to leave the house, but you'd be a mug to leave though, house - warm, outside - cold. The Irish Times said were supposed to go to -10 at some stage this week, oh dear.

Finnish

Wagner is no more :(

Thats X Factor done with for another year then. Toyed with the idea of going €260 awe-green this morning but left it, ahhh. Got €100 off the elimination market as a back up because of the double elim but it was worth much more if he stayed in, gutted. (Well not really gutted its only X Factor, but anyway money is money so gutted for that).








The snows back too. Feck. I hate the way everyone bounces around as if theyve never seen it before, and youre sitting there going "Yeah, thats my sporting week buggered then." I was looking forward to Fairyhouse today.

At least with the bad weather, we can look back on events last winter..



Your man nearly became a national celebrity for falling over, it was funny to be fair though, ya cant walk that fast on ice FFS. Incidentally, the news bulletin was how the country had ran out of salt to grit the roads. This year we ran out of money. We'll do something mad again next year but sure arent we a great bunch of lads.

Its been a quiet betting week, hence no posts, I didnt have a bet until yesterday, fiddling around on the rugby and horses out of boredom more than anything, obviously low stakes. Lost €60 on the India game this morning, got a bit carried away laying them when NZ were 8 down (went from 1.01 to 1.3ish before losing), but got a decent enough book on The Ashes 1st test. Only been able to do the first session each day so its been a bit all over the place but I'm delighted to be green considering I had around €350 - €400 red on the draw at one stage, day two I think, the pitch just got flatter as we went on.

Aus attack looks a bit weak atm, especially Johnson, but Eng have only had one go and Aus got near 500 so while everyone is sort of focusing on how toothless Aus look, Eng didnt exactly knock them over easily either, I want another look before commenting. I'd be wary to having biggish red on a draw in any test at any stage given what I've seen so far, if I had to pick a winner I'd say Eng, but with no confidence. I'm not one for chopping and changing a team once one game goes bad, but I really would drop Johnson and bring in Bollinger.






Remember to follow @theashes on Twitter for all the latest updates.. (OK so if you havent clicked on that, its a teenage girl from America with the username TheAshes and she now has 2,500 followers tweeting to her about cricket which she hates, maybe its the late nights and different sleeping patterns but I must have chuckled away for about an hour last night at her SEETHING, tweeting the same message over and over seething is feckin' priceless).

And on a personal note the Governments four year plan was kind enough to me with the property tax being €100 per year until they can test the values, which wont be until 2013/2014, €100 is a hell of a lot better than near €1k, it was like winning €900. On a more overall view, with the interest rate at 5.8% on 85 billion, we are fooked. Fooked. That is all.

Remember the Father Ted episode when they were complaining about the nude film and had the signs.. "Down with this sort of thing, careful now." Some fellow had it at the protest at the GPO on Saturday, only in Ireland..!

21/11/2010

For some reason I have an odd feeling today is gonna be one of those "where were you when.." days, the day the IMF came to Ireland. The numbers theyre talking about are flat out scary IMO. The bright side is I'm young and can control my life from here on in - would be so different with a mortgage and kids. Given todays news I dont think I'll ever move house from here (which I didnt really want to anyway I think) and dont really want to have kids either, but sure you cant say that to a woman like. Going off the rough figures (obviously everyone is guessing) I make it around €300k per head to be paid back, scary. Interesting times for Ireland, I literally have no idea what happens next.

Bit ironic that if I do ever have kids they'll be there "Daddy where were you the day the IMF came to Ireland?" Daddy was gambling and drinking in Navan son, "isnt that what got us into the mess in the first place.." Errrr, go annoy your mother. I only found out too this evening a friend is moving to America, pretty shit that friends have to leave.

Anyway, no betting today to add, minus €157 on Betfair this week but plus €272 with VC, minus €29 with BlueSq, an OK week without anything happening. Thank god every week isnt as boring as this one.

Blessed!

That New Zealand try in the last minute was needed, 30secs to go FFS.

The -15 handicap at 10/11 looked appealing with the bookies, especially given it was -16 or 4/5 -15 with most others bar VC. Massive great big problem though - Ireland "scored" what looked a try with near 8mins to go, I lay -14.5 on Betfair (short enough), try not given - so NZ are winning by exactly 15.. and I lose twice then, paaanic. Thankfully someone scored though, it didnt really make much difference which team, just to get it off 15.

I was gonna do the boxing tonight but I've had enough stress for one day. Its been (what has felt like anyway) a really boring week without much happening. I suppose I'm doing what I said I'd do in staying out of trouble for the winter.. you really cant beat that little adrenaline rush when I needed a score though. Very few times I find myself in those situations shouting at the telly, but then I get buzz off it, thats probably a terrible thing..! I even had a thought of buying an Xbox or PS3 this week its been that boring, but games and shite like that arent really my style, wait until the new year and rejoin the gym I reckon, I wouldnt mind a few more things on during the evenings atm - there is still stuff on during the day but I'm busy those times now with college.

I am addicted to gambling really, not in a bad way, but can you picture JUST how boring life would be without betting? What do normal people do like? They must have seriously boring lifes (HA). I was never ever a big fan of drinking, I only do it to see people really, but I kind of understand now why its such a big thing to do the weekends.. theyve fook all else to do. If they took away drink and sport what would there be to do at all? Seriously. Obviously theres family and stuff but I'm talking about cool things to do!

And a note of the X Factor - laid €50 at around 40ish on Wagner during the week, so got 2k on him now and €50 the rest, cant bring myself to go €100 awe-green because if he actually won I would cry. Surely he cant win though, but I'm not brave enough to do it. This is the 9th elimination tomorrow now and imagine the cash cow he would have been with bottom two markets, 9 x €300 = €2,700.. siiigh! Minus €300 the week he goes then. (Judging by the week we did have one and it was voided with him odds on).

Ireland v Norway

Friendlies are the devil.. Norway arent that fantastic, and we dont even have our full team out (our full team isnt that great either anyway). I always tend to lean towards 0-0 with Ireland games anyway but tonight looks like it could be a dull affair on paper. I said that when we played Russia and we saw five goals however..

Anyway Bluesq are a stand out 8/1, sitting around about 8.2 on Betfair so it seems a good price, Bluesq are terrible but €29 is better than nothing. If I had to guess at a team scoring I would say Norway before Ireland.

I just got offered two tickets for €15 total and said no, thats how boring I can see it being.

God Loves A Trier.. Take Two

I now wish someone had told Pak that too FFS! 7.5 an over needed off 14 with only 3 wickets down, get 9 off the previous over including a six.. and then shake hands, why not even try at least a little longer even. The market rated Pak around 11 - 13 and Saffers were 100+, so you have say a 10/1 chance of winning v 100/1 chance of losing (I would normally say teams wouldnt see the market but sure its Pak they know odds..!), cant believe they didnt go for it, considering the score they had to get and how close they were, amazed that wouldnt appeal. Even if they didnt do it, obviously one in ten chance, but try for a few more overs after getting 9 off the last one and then give up when it looks impossible. Confused, but still Younis Khan is pure class, its not too much of a jump to say they probably would have finished all out without him.

That said, I was moaning not hanging on to Saffers Sunday, would have lost more if I did in the end. I havent seen anything in the India game but got €7 off that, 4AM is too much to ask, 5-00 is my limit I think.

Anyway, on the topic of being confused about stuff.. why is Ruud Van Nistlerooy now working for RTE news?

God Loves A Trier..

If only someone had told that to Audley Harrison! FFS he never even threw a punch, amazing scenes, I know we all knew we was a joker to begin with, but that takes the biscuit. Cant believe I went out for it and missed the X Factor (theres a sentence I thought I'd never say), the Pacquiao Margarito made up for it though but there was a few black holes in the memory by that time. The thing that amazes me about Pacman is, not his speed or power, but his chin is unreal, the fellows hes beating are much bigger than him and he just takes it and comes forward, amazing to watch. Obviously would love to see the Mayweather fight now but sure I'm wasting my time talking about it until they get it done themselves.

Been a long week but no gambling, taken up by assignments (minus craic), I know by now not to bet when I have other stuff going on in life as I tend to be shite. As seen again by my book on the Saffer Pak 1st test..






Backed Saffers at 1.6ish and then didnt have the bottle or the patience to stay, I didnt give it my 100% attention and sure what can I expect. That €64 on the draw at 2.32 is really embarrassing..! Redding out about ten minute after laying it, head in hands man.

But I've been here before, think about something else and gambling goes to pot. Next week should be back to a bit of normality, just the one market this week greening out on the PP bet to win €39.

Bit worried tonight for Wagner, and want to level up if he gets through, cant see him troubling the big six so he only has Paije and Katie to go now really. Fingers crossed he gets through but I wouldnt be surprised if he was bottom two, obviously Paije being on first gives Wagner a big advantage, and I think everyone hates Katie. His weeks are starting to be numbered from now on though.

I suppose I better say a word on Johnny leaving Ballydoyle too.. one word.. delighted! Er, I didnt like him after this. Why take the ride off Sam? Funnily enough he didnt ride out much after that, and there was rumors he was unhappy with Joey getting rides, if you dont ride out can hardly expect to get everything can you? Maybe he was told not to by AP, I dunno, its between them, but I'm glad hes gone anyway and maybe next year will be back to normal and I might even have a bet on a horse again, ya never know.. good things come to those who wait, except Audley Harrison.

Another thing too, the budget in Ireland is coming up and apparently we'll have some sort of property tax, €80 a month, and water rates, I'll wait before worrying because I'll be only wasting my time but I reckon we'll probably have to have an extra €1,500 between us from next year on. That changes me going from €7.5k to €8.25k, not an awful rise but still a rise like. ATM I'm up €9.2k for the blog with four months left in my year, cash betting is down around €700 but thats OK after losing €3k on St Nic, poker is up a fair bit with final tables and I havent played seriously in a while. I suppose I know one day betting will end so ideally I'd like to save that extra €1,500 a year because the future is uncertain in gambling, but sure what can you do.. we were talking about it and as I said we can either accept it, get over it, and pay it. Or we can get depressed about it, moan about it, and pay it. So for the sake of mental health it has to be the first option no doubt. In terms of gambling and life, its just about having as little overheads as possible, but I mean they have property tax in most countries so its not like you can avoid it, still thinking about emigrating, Iran? Iraq? Zimbabwe? Africa? Afghanistan? Pakistan? I think I'll stay, sure it has to stop raining at some stage..

X Factor

VOTE FOR WAGNER..!

Got rid of the red, I know he has little chance of actaully winning, but he might survive next week, I believe the last 8 go on tour, and theres 9 left, hes been getting a fair bit of press so they might give him a late slot on Saturday - later the better of votes.

Still Paije and Katie, and maybe Mary left to go, he wont trouble the big five (unless he has a massive vote we dont know about), obviously the minute hes bottom two hes toast, finnish. Maybe another two weeks and he'll be between 25 and anything up to 40, worth leaving it for the time being without worrying about losing anyway.

Pak v Saffer 3rd ODI

I'll not comment and let things speak for themselves..

Pakistan wicketkeeper Zulqarnain Haider is reported to be at Dubai airport and preparing to fly to the United Kingdom. Sources in the PCB confirmed his presence at the airport a couple of hours after saying he was missing from the team currently playing the deciding ODI against South Africa at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.

The PCB had begun an inquiry into the matter and informed the ICC's Anti-Corruption and Security Unit as well as local security officials of Haider's disappearance.

"He is missing and we found this out in the morning when getting ready to come to the stadium," Nadeem Sarwar, PCB's general manager of media, told ESPNcricinfo. "He did not say anything to the team management about this at all. We have initiated inquiries into the matter."

A cryptic message left as a status update on the player's Facebook page said: "leaving pakistan cricket because get bad msg fr 1 man fr lose the match in last game." The last match that his Facebook status seems to refer to is the fourth ODI of the series, another closely-fought thriller, in which Haider's unbeaten 19 took Pakistan to victory with one wicket and one ball to spare.

Raza Haider, Zulqarnain's brother, said the wicketkeeper had reportedly received threats. "I spoke to Zulqarnain after the fourth ODI and he told me he had received some kind of threats after that game, but he gave no details," Raza said.

A TV reporter for Geo, a leading Pakistani news channel, said that he had received a text message from Haider earlier on Monday in which the player asked for security for his family and indicated that he might fly to the UK. The channel reported one of its correspondents receiving a text message from Haider asking for security for his family in Lahore.

http://www.cricinfo.com/pakistan/content/current/story/486103.html

I'm actually friends with him on Facebook..










Whether its to do with winning the last game, or 'trying' to win this game, thats sort of not clear yet because this game is the "last game" the series, or its the last game they played. This game so far has been virtually a 1.01 train bar the two wickets, with Saffers 201/2 after 33 overs, and it has not looked like a series decider at all at 2-2. Maybe Pak will chase down a big score though, who knows..









I have money on Saffers from the time the story broke he was missing anyway, theres a fair chance I was backing a 1.01 shot at 1.5, if 2 + 2 = 4.












Uh oh! Saffers lose three wickets in 14 balls with a run out included.. I've greened, we'll have to wait until Pak bat to know I suppose, wont touch the book now, crossing between Books and Betfair not great for managing positions. Zero Pak (minus comm), €39 Saffers.





Pak 66/0 after 10 in responses to 318, happy to have gotten out now in terms in stress, I think theyre trying now, but still think Saffers will pull it out in the end, no change to the book for the day anyway.

---
GSM Saffers, win by 57 runs, but Pak played well, bowling (which is normally quite good) lost it for them. Happy enough to have greened out given Saffers hit 1.8 after laying the 1.3s.

07/11/2010

Got a college assignment going on atm so gambling is a bit thin on the ground, I did get up early this morning for the Aus match only to see they rolled Lanka for 116 and it was as good as over. I'm a disaster for hard work or effort, I lay on the couch all day yesterday thinking 'I'll start in 10mins' but kept extending that 10mins until it was suddenly 'too late' to start. Its currently 4/11 the same thing will happen today.

Some great sport on the TV yesterday though, why move..! I thought United were gubbing the 1.1s again until a Fergie time winner.. 94th minute was it? Unreal. And the Ireland v Saffer rugby was pretty good too, I like seeing sporting events supported normally but it was good to see all the empty seats yesterday.. the days of €100+ tickets are long gone and the sooner they cop on the better. And the Breeders Cup to top it off.. the Zenyatta race was baffling, horse? Jockey? I'm not sure. It looked as if she was pulling up going past the stands first time around and it reminded me of Istabraq at Cheltenham, then she almost takes off, I couldnt work it out at the time. My only blame towards the jockey would be turning in, he got too cocky and didnt give her a good run IMO, I dont really blame him for being so far behind early, he was niggling her IMO. However, I've only seen it twice, couldnt watch ATR for long last night had to switch off, two words - Matt Chapman.

I had a rough day in the markets on Friday, which was half the reason for Saturday off, the rain in the Lanka v Aus match confused me totally.. much like my bad book on the US Open final, chopping and changing, not having a definite opinion gets me into all sorts of bother, I thought Aus 1.2 was a pretty good lay but the danger was if it rained it was finnish no trading, so being scared of that led to a lot of awe-redding and then re-positioning to the previous position before awe-redding. Exactly like the US Open basically. Any doubt with me and I'm pants, but I knew that beforehand anyway, nothing new there. I also made it €80 worse after the screen shot.. awe-red, and I'm pants too and make it worse.. again, nothing new there! In hindsight I should have just walked away but once the red isnt my max that wont happen.






Normal Wallet..
Cricket: €13.94 | Horse Racing: €7.61 Total P&L: €21.55

Aussie Wallet..
Cricket: -€256.69 Total P&L: -€256.69

Another reason for the weekend off is I've been living off blind luck lately without feeling shrewed about things - the Razzaq knock got me from losing €90 (at 1.01) to winning €110, I was €230 awe-red Aus game and then 1.02 was gubbed to win €900, I'm winning off luck not skill, getting rescued.. the -€260 market was bound to hit sooner rather than later.

Also, I'm aware now the blog is nearly turning into a cricket blog at this stage, but I now rate giving up horse racing as a serious sport as one of the best decisions I've ever made. For the amount of time that went into it, it purely wasnt worth it, and the other sports have really taken off when the time has been passed over to them. I still like watching racing, just as a betting vehicle I'm at such a disadvantage compared to the on course backers, and if I'm being honest the English flat season has bored me this year so I havent been fully dedicated anyway in the studying form sense, I also look at the BHA and think the future doesnt look fantastic either. I would still do the Irish racing but obviously being on ATR that just isnt even worth thinking about.

Its been about two months since I gave up the horses seriously, was hit and miss for months before that, and Betfair is plus just over €3k on both wallets this month (well last month, last 30days) and money from bookies too, although not much maybe an extra €400.. long term readers (if there is anyone indeed mad enough to read that long without killing themselves!) will know I often spent the whole day playing in running for €20, and I'd class that as an achievement from home with the delay and the markets. Whereas now, I take the day off, sleep if I've been up early or go have a laugh, I'm coming into the other markets fresh and without frustration, and overall just in a better state of mind. I think the general opinion (at least on the forum anyway) is that the horse markets are the least "fair" out of everything so when I lose on the others I can live with it being my fault. The last screen shot is the month one, the first two are the normal week ones. I sometimes miss the racing, but I'm all about whats good for the money :)

PS. No opinion on X-Factor this weekend, but still got +11k (HA!) on Wagner, -€140 the field.

Pacquiao - Margarito 24/7

Episode two now and theyre still at it with the bad camp.. you'd almost think they were trying to get a better price at this stage! I think the last three or four 24/7s Pacman has supposedly at a bad camp, then won easily.

Amazing Scenes.. Take Two

Well, I set my alarm for 5AM this morning and then proceeded to make myself €230 awe-red, I find life is too easy sometimes and its very boring just winning all the time you know yourself I need a challenge. Ended up winning €900 though - still the daddy? Check. I'm only taking the piss by the way, except for the 5AM bit, and the €230 awe-red bit, and the €900 bit, basically everything apart from the being easy bit because I was shitting it!


















107/8 to getting 240, just phenomenal, very rare I get nervous, it was that good to watch. I laid Aus at 1.5ish, watched it go 1.01, awe-redded on the way, and then laid 1.05 for 1k, and was of the view I couldnt green at those odds (Aus too low at the time IMO until the flip flop), cant even describe the comeback.. cant even remember one like it. One thing I noticed this morning, the Betfair super-bot obviously isnt on Aussie markets, because we were getting something like 2.02 both sides at one stage and evens to lay and 1.8 to lay other side at another stage. MELTDOWN.






Market took an awful long time to react, if I remember right it was 1.4 when they only needed 16 (or one/two less/more), that was an amazing price, wickets in hand probably keeping it high but they had put on a record partnership by then. I suppose it really was one of those "they cant do it, can they?" moments.

I'm glad to win though because I made a right balls of yesterdays game, found myself €195 awe-green..






Only to muck it up and finish with a fiver, put all my green on Pak. Sigh, head in hands man, they finished two runs short.. and they only needed 22 off 18 at one stage, and 9 off 6.. Saffers went to 1.02 for big money but flipping back to Pak odds on, amazing game in itself too.






Also a note on the student march, I wasnt there (obviously!), but IMO embarrassing all the problems with clashing with the guards, what a bunch of numpties, obviously most would have been OK but the select few went for trouble and probably add a few more who had been drinking all day. Just embarrassing really, probably the right word to sum it up. Irish bonds hit 7.59% today too and finished at 7.45% I believe, pictures of riots in the capital going around the world hardly help our image as it is, and it must be long odds on we need the IMF next year with those bond rates.

There has to be cuts regardless of what happens though doesnt there, whos the power, etc etc, we cant spend more money than we take in each year, I believe its called "common sense" but its a concept lost on some people. I know I cant really comment because I've never had an actual job, so I have no taxpayer high horse to get on, but the "I pay for this" argument they seem to have doesnt really cut it IMO when we spend €5 for every €3 the taxpayers pay, try earning €300 a week and spending €500 and see how far you get basically. The numbers just dont add up, and everyone can play the blame game but that does fook all doesnt it, just have to cut things to get Irish debt under control, UK are cutting, America have massive debt too, were not the only ones, it wont last forever, and you can just leave the country if you dont like the rules. No wait scratch that lets not be sensible, THE WORLD IS ENDING. FINNISH.

Incidentally, I was watching Reeling In The Years Sunday night, it was 2002 I think, and we had an election and the biggest issue and complaint at the time they said was the economy. That was eight years ego. Then, in 2008 it was financial armageddon with everything crashing. Now, in 2010 we are FINNISH. I wonder what new thing we can come up with next year, because oddly enough it seems life goes on and the sky doesnt fall. Although were told by those nice Mayan fellows that the world ends in 2012, so thats our worries sorted for 2012, we just need to come up with worries for 2011 now. Global warming is out the window because its still freezing, Liverpool to win the Premiership? Dublin to win the All Ireland? Audley Harrison to become Heavyweight Champion of the world? The world will most definitely end then.