22/12/2011

Apologies for the lack of update this week but I've been stuck down in the prime of life with a chest infection, its negative craic, but I did plan for the week off anyway so I suppose its no real harm in that sense, and the main aim is to be at Leopardstown on the 26th without dying, fingers crossed..!

Anyway, not much to say because not much has happened, the Aus v NZ market settled on Monday night but that work was done last week really - Aus hit 1.02 Monday night before losing, and NZ went from 1.01 back to 3+ apparently before winning, long live test cricket for trading. I was in bed when all this happened but I'm sure it was good for anyone that stayed up.

Bit ironic I say I'll skip the overnight tests for "better life" reasons and then go and get sick, but even so I didnt miss much with Saffers v SL either - Saffers were 1.4ish after the toss, 1.15 by the end of day 1 and 1.1 by the end of day 2, it was never going to be a big test from those positions/odds you know.

Really appreciate having the darts on each evening to pass a bit of time, the Anderson match was brilliant, Barney going out was good viewing too, and Whitlock doing the business with a broken ankle last night, I havent been trading obviously, I havent even looked at the markets to see if someone is still well ahead of the clock like the Premier League, which makes quick trading virtually impossible (for me anyway). It seems more of a position takers market - I think its easier to be a position taker over the sets layout more so than the Premier League so I'll have a look at it after Christmas and see.

Anyway wont be around again this Sunday because its Christmas, so have a Happy Christmas everyone and back a few winners on Boxing/Stephens day.

11/12/2011

Well, its been an alright week at +€400, I say alright because at one stage it was +€900, but I wouldnt have changed either position over the weekend.

Eh, suppose I'll start with Khan.. where do you start with him. The interview after, why does he make it so hard to like him? I want to be a fan because he has tonnes of talent (IMO) and is exciting to watch, but you cant really say it was me v him + the ref straight after a fight. I think his SP was around about 1.11ish, but I had average odds of just under evens, I've no complaints with the scoring or the ref, for starters without the two docked points he would have won by unanimous decision and secondly the ref warned him about docking a point so obviously he has to avoid doing it again in a close fight, dont get docked the point in the last round (how annoying, last round FFS!) and he wins. Oodles of talent, no brain.

Then today, I was happy enough to be on Windies..






It did go to 1.8s afterwards, but I didnt think that was fair at the time, sadly there was a run out an over or two after that and then it was a case of typical Windies, reliably unreliable. I always find myself in trouble though when a team are covering the rate needed easily but losing wickets, frustrating, but I wouldnt take it back. And it'll happen again no doubt.

Naturally life is much easier when you have a more solid team chasing and Monday was far easier than today - still a bit dodgy and on the wrong team - but because there was so many bounces from 1.6 Windies to odds against, was able to create a fair bit of green on India, was only afterwards looking back I thought I could have been €700ish equal but I did think India would win, so no real complaints about that. Its just one of those things, because I was against India today I was getting around 10 ticks less for good things and 10 ticks more against me for bad things - Monday was the opposite so it was far easier in that sense you know, 1.6 would bounce to 1.9 for 5 runs after a wicket.







Anyway, so good to see Tiger back to winning ways last Sunday night! Delighted for him, and it was pretty exciting watching it, he was odds on when I posted last week and then eventually went back out to 4+ so it wasnt without a scare. I ended up backing him, probably more in silliness rather than shrewdness, he'll probably be too short for all the majors next year now wont he? Still, nice to see him back, his position in the market seems to be the only thing I have a proper understanding of in golf.

In the rush to watch him last week I forgot to mention, I've decided not to do the overnight tests this year - I'm glad I forgot to mention it because I actually have a book on this weeks, say one thing do another! It started at 11-30 which isnt so bad for an hour or two, doing the whole night though is really a 'life ruiner' its too hard on the system. From memory I didnt do all of The Ashes tests last year either, so I dont plan on doing the India series over there - although I would imagine they'll be good for trading, unless it snows and I'm stuck in all day I'd prefer to keep my hours (and life) as normal as possible. Its impossible to be normal doing this, but close enough will do..! I'll start putting up the Aussie wallet shots from now on too I suppose, I'd say the second test should finish up tonight anyway.







In terms of cricket going forward, as far as I can see we only have the Saffers v Lanka first test on Thursday and then thats it until Christmas, and then after Christmas it gets a bit hectic but I think I'll skip a fair bit of it, much rather head to Leopardstown for the four days thats in it, its only once a year and it wouldnt be Christmas without it really. Never mind the 25th, roll on the 26th and we can all have a bet!

Final of the X Factor tonight, so that has to settle but some markets have already (Amelia Lily to go last night), I have zero on them all so no point waiting - made a mistake this year (in hindsight) laying off Johnny far too early, he was 70-75 after the first show and after a few weeks traded as low as 16, I traded out far too soon. I should know by now, ignore the majority and stick with the idea that the 'fun' act does well, it was only the double elimination that caught him out, and that was randomly threw in somewhere in the middle this year by surprise, Wagner got caught by the double last year too. The funny thing is everyone sits at home and thinks 'smoke and mirrors' doesnt work on me, but the smoke and mirrors really does work.. IMO its been completely set up for the girl band to win tonight, I'd like to see the bloke win it, but sure theres no money on it so who cares.










And lastly, I noticed (theres no escaping it FFS!) that the Euro is having another "crisis" this week. I'm not sure what crisis this is by now, whether its the first one or a new one or number 691, whichever crisis it is anyway, William Hill are going 3/1 for the Euro to be gone by the end of 2012, so, if youre one of those "the world is doomed" "the Euro will be gone in five days.. three days.. no wait six days.. any moment now.. anyyyy moment now" people, get yourself down to William Hill and take 3/1 and let the rest of us live in piece and quiet, if only for a day, I hear were having Euro crisis number 692 next week, how exciting, its never happened before. Also, Greece are 11/8 to stop using the Euro by end of 2012 too if thats of interest.







I also have no comment to make on Manchester United exiting the Champions League, no comment at all, haha. Except to say if you, like me, love watching European football, the listings for watching your team in Europe in the new year are as follows:

Arsenal & Chelsea - ITV & Sky Sports.
Man City & Man Utd - Channel 5 & ITV 4.
Liverpool - ESPN Classic.

Budget 2012

Just to copy and paste the wording on the new online betting laws/rules in the Budget..

Betting Duty
The Betting (Amendment) Bill is now at an advanced stage of drafting with a final draft expected from the Attorney General’s Office early in the New Year. The Bill will, inter alia, facilitate the extension of the betting duty of 1% to remote betting and the introduction of a betting intermediaries’ duty (Gross Profits Tax of 15%) to cover betting exchanges. Following publication of the Bill there is a legal requirement to notify the EU Commission 3 months in advance of enactment of the Bill. It is intended that the new taxation regime will commence from the second quarter of 2012.

First reaction is I'm guessing when they say 15% gross profits, it means 15% of Betfairs profits and not 15% of our profits. I believe when there was a bit of furor over this a while back Betfair said they'd be happy enough to pay it (although I cant find a link now so dont trust me on that), because they have made a 'voluntary donation' (or something along those lines) to the HRI in the past.

Interesting if they say anything about it over the next few days anyway. It doesnt seem like theres anything to be overly worried about.

I'm actually interested to see how much the figure will be, I still meet people interested in betting in Ireland who have never used Betfair, or even know what its about (with regards laying etc etc). We'll see anyway.

04/12/2011

Following on from my post on discipline last week, this is another angle on doing things..



Whos the Daddy! I'm a huge Boardwalk Empire fan myself, great show. For anyone that watches, Chalky White is also the man.

Anyway, fairly quiet time on Betfair week only the two games/markets/days. I did actually get up to do both Bangs v Pak games but sure Bangs collapse so easy I shouldnt bother really, the market was dead quickly in the 1.0x's.

I thought the same was happening on the second India game this week but they drifted from 1.09 first innings to 1.6 at the break, I managed to start at 1.9 which was a nice starting point after an early wicket, it did bounce from 1.5 to 1.9s again afterwards but that wasnt too much of a worry because it was just back to where I started in the first place, and it was more or less a 1.01 train from there, with a few again stops of resistance - always works out well when the team you favour end up a 1.01 train though.







Was delighted to see Cotto really give Margarito a beating last night, IMO it proves Margarito used the illegal wraps last time they met, he only got caught with them in his next fight but anyone that watched 24/7 could see the photos after the first Cotto fight and judge for themselves, IMO he definitely used them, so a bit of boxing justice there! I ended up going out to watch that, and ended up at Fairyhouse today too so its been a busy weekend, really hoping Tiger can finish it off nicely tonight. No money on him because I thought 3/1 was a bit short at the start, hes slightly odds on as I type, but sure a Sunday night watching the golf from the couch with no hassle is always great when Tigers involved, although I have to say I dont really have a huge amount of faith in him getting it done, hopefully though, it'll be good for the game to have him back winning.










And lastly, I know it was around the place this week, I think it made the national news (Haha!), but I am a true romantic deep down really and you never know maybe Mark reads the blog. So Mark, if youre reading, I think youre a Daddy.. YAY!

Discipline

Its been a weird sort of day today even though I havent done anything on Betfair, started off brilliantly with our new horse, Kitty Dillon, having her first run in a p2p this morning and finishing third - everyone was delighted with that and she'll have learned loads being held up and coming through them and was given a relatively easy time of it, at least we know now we'll get a few decent days with her when she gets to the track, it'd have been terrible if she finished last this morning or something. Then an hour or so later you hear Gary Speed was found hanging in his own house, very sad news. Its nearly always said when things like this happen but it does put life into perspective, you think of all the daily things we give out or moan about it, when we dont appreciate what we have really. I complain when the weather is cold FFS, when the wind is blowing too much on the golf course, its daft really, all the nonsense we talk about pales into insignificance compared to what some have to deal with on a daily basis.

Anyway, going back to last Sunday, I ended up laying Misha B for bottom two - I wanted to on Saturday but the market took her out to odds against, then Sunday after posting she went back odds on so was happy enough laying after the sob story. Its hard to find an angle tonight, I actually dont like any of them, Misha and Janet are both odds on bottom two and I would lay them but the other three seem pretty strong - there must be a fair chance Janet will get the sympathy vote which Misha got last week, problem is they'll probably drag each other down, not confident enough to put money down anyway.







Then up bright eyed and brushy tailed for the finish of the test on Monday, it worked out well in the sense that Aus won in the end, not before going out to 12 though, and not before the draw hit 1.3s, Saffers traded odds on too, it was crazy..!







On my screen shot last week all three were sitting at 2.3+ so whatever you backed it could have worked out well. I've been doing Pak v Lanka too but having some troubles, erm, almost confusing - at the end of each game I've thought "I could have won more there" while at the same time thinking "lucky I didnt lose a fortune.." I did make exactly the same mistake as I did on Eng v India though in ruining a good book, going from this..






To this in under 10 minutes..






Its that top up again, exactly as Eng v India. Erm, I dont know how to fix it really or avoid it because sure if you think the odds are good youre gonna back it, at the same time the hard work has already been done for the most part at that stage and as I said the last time, if it goes go tits up without the top up, can go €100ish equal at around evens and its still a good days work, whereas with the top up its back to square one if it does go wrong with no cushion. The conclusion was I was probably being greedy, but its hard to actually 'fix' the idea that I shouldnt top up when I think a team are big in price - just it always goes wrong for me! The odd thing about it is as a first bet into a market, I would probably never go near the top up odds, most times the first move into the market is odds against or 1.6+ or something, you know I wouldnt be bothered backing a 1.3 shot first up.

I got a good comment last week on discipline, and basically how I managed to only bet/trade on certain sports compared to others. Its got to the stage where I know what I can do and I know what I cant - and I can accept what I cant do, example being I know I'm fairly shit at trading soccer, a shame because I love watching it but I just cant trade it. But what I normally do is, ever see those desk calendar thingys - Sunday night or Monday morning I'll look at the schedule (livesportontv.com is handy at times) and pencil in the games I want to do.. obviously last week I put in Saffers v Aus as a priority and then things like India v Windies as a 'maybe' and things like that.

So when I'm sitting at my desk, and on Betfair, I'm here for a reason - to work on whatever game - and when theres nothing on my schedule to do I wont go near Betfair, I never ever log into Betfair for entertainment, if I've a blank day (and there are a good few in the winter) I go off and find something else to do, wouldnt even think of Betfair.

You know people always tend to say its ignorant when you dont follow all the news or current affairs happening around you, but I cant follow and do everything on Betfair - so if something happens in the tennis, its blunt but I really dont care, its none of my business, I can only care about so much stuff that goes on. Its a running joke here that 'I live in a bubble' but I'm not an expert on all sports so I have to live in a little (sports I can do) bubble to make things work.

The only way I can compare it to something is watching the news - if something happens in say France, sure who cares I live in Ireland, I wouldnt have a feckin' clue what happened in a different country if it wasnt for the internet. Now thats probably ignorant, but same sort of thing with Betfair, if something happens on Snooker, sure who cares because I'm a cricket/boxing/GAA trader. Its impossible to do everything.

Obviously over time things change and I have to change with them or I get left behind, things get taken away from me, a lot more so than given, horse racing got taken away with the start of people going to the course - that was more so to do with the technology that allowed it really, so doing it from home became unworkable (for me anyway). The darts, someone started going to all the Premier League games and was miles in front of the Betfair clock, that made it equally very hard to trade - you make a mistake youre punished without getting a chance to cancel and you do something right youre not matched. Boxing, Prizefighter changed the rules this year so that the draw is made live on Sky before the fights, I can completely understand it from a non-betting viewers point of view, but not giving us the markets until two minutes before the off was such a killer for liquidity. But sure I just dont put them down on the desk calendar and maybe put down an extra cricket match or GAA match (in the summer) and then instead of being at the desk for Fontwell on a Monday I'm off playing golf, gym, visiting the Grandparents going odd jobs for them, having the usual date night, whatever, and I'm at my desk another time when theres something on thats fair to do (in the market sense of fair).

As for staking/chasing discipline, well I've never been a chaser - but clocking in and clocking out does help, because its like finishing work, I just go after the game is over without even thinking. Obviously its easier because there might be only one game I want to do most days, but when its over win or lose I clock off without thinking - IMO naturally horse racing is the most 'chasy' sport because theres a race every five minutes or so, even then I was never into chasing. Its just been imprinted into me that gambling never finishes because it just goes on and on and on, so being up/down at the end of a day is irrelevant - but I say irrelevant and then if given the chance to be level I always take it rather than risk losing, but I'm getting more risk averse as I get older, and try and pick positions that if things go wrong I can go level and if things go right I win - again, thats something thats changed with Betfair changing too, you can be risk averse on a test match no problem, you cant really be risk averse on a 5F sprint at The Curragh.

In terms of staking, I have always used the 'feel it yourself' idea that at the given time I'll pick the stake anywhere between €50 and €500 on how confident I am at the time, its just the way I've always done it. Most of betting/trading is down to what suits the person rather than whats viewed as "normal" anyway, you have people who are obsessed with the word 'value' and you have people like me who never use it (I HATE the word!), its all just down to what suits the individual.

20/11/2011

I'll try keep this a little short because I have a touch of the flu. Quiet enough week on the P&L because I've been concentrating on the Saffer v Aus 2nd test, and currently have this going into tomorrow..







Its been good..! All three outcomes have traded odds on, and all three have traded 9+ I think too. Erm, tomorrow is tough to price up - I think the draw is short but we have lost the last session a couple of times this week and if play is slow tomorrow and they need 10 overs after tea that would be a worry, I'd have Aus shorter and Saffers longer but theres not a huge difference there - I wouldnt disagree strongly with anyone for saying either are a bet tbh.

Aus are going at 3.8 per over atm which would lead you to think they need another 45(ish) overs to win, which is why the draw, albeit short, is understandable enough - bad light is going to be a huge factor so much depends on the time it arrives really, which is anyones guess, then lose an early wicket and they might slow down a little and need more overs to chase it.

I'd probably favour Aus if given a €500 free bet but obviously dont want an overnight position and waiting for conditions in the morning, I trust Ponting, Clarke and Hussey - wouldnt want Haddin walking in with them needing anything more than 50 though. An added factor with me too, with no real gambling logic, is I've traded it from bed yesterday and today feeling shite with man flu, I've got to +€2.6k and dont want to make a complete bollocks of it now, it would break my heart! Thats probably the main reason why I havent added €555 to the results and gone small red on the draw.

Anyway that'll be next weeks P&L - this week is just a very quiet €32.72.. I did have a max liability lay on Sri Lanka at 1.4, and the market flipped twice, but muggins here only made €30. My own fault solely rather than events being out of my hands, and the second game was during the test so that wasnt given any real focus.

Amazing Scenes

Crazy week on Betfair - the Saffer v Aus test match was mental, you thought it was bad Saffers getting rolled for 96, half an hour later Aus were getting rolled for 47, having been 21/9! The lowest score in the history of test cricket is 26 by the way, but anyway, obviously I didnt help my cause my sleeping in and missing the Saffer collapse - I'm not sure if this is true or not, but its great if it is..








On a more serious note about missing the collapse, I've fallen into a bit of a 'lazy' attitude towards Betfair since I got my cast off and I'm going to have to snap out of it starting tomorrow. Understandable really not being able to do anything for three weeks and then getting free rein to do whatever you want again, but next week I'm setting an alarm and no more swanning around. If I learned anything its I rarely win doing things half arsed.

So I ended up down €100 on cricket this week, but got that back on Tiger going low in Australia so it wasnt so bad - out of curiosity I went back through Excel, the last time I had a losing week on Betfair was the 3rd of July, but that was the weekend of Haye v Klitschko and I had won the 'Go The Distance' bet with William Hill, the last time I had an over all losing week was the 23rd of May - had to update records on the Monday because my Broadband went down on the Wednesday that week (must be crap at mobile betting, add it to the list!) Obviously with the England v India series being so easy (relatively easy compared to everything else) those records are fairly misrepresented, and theres been plenty of weeks with +€2, +€5, and +€7 P&Ls but if I was picking one thing this year I've got better at its not taking as much risks in the sense of leaving myself in positions where things can go very wrong very fast, I'm still making wrong moves (because obviously everyone does) but I'm getting away with level when I do. And sure if ya dont lose, ya can only win..! (Well, in theory..)

But anyway, Tiger wasnt on TV this week for a few holes so I could snipe with information from Twitter (you can that with cricket too, amazing tool Twitter), and had this:










But then, you know, 'new' Tiger is a bit of a mug compared to old Tiger so I squared, somewhat unhappily at the time, but it worked out with him finishing third, and my Aussie Wallet got a run out for the first time in months.










One more thing to highlight if you havent noticed, Amelia Lily has been brought back to X Factor after Frankie getting the boot, shes currently trading as favourite having traded at 1000. I know its easy to say now, and sure enough I wasnt thinking this at the time either, but laying 1000 on someone who wasnt kicked off through public vote is very chancy, there was always a slim chance (less than 1000/1 anyway) they could bring those four who didnt face the public vote back at whatever stage. Its not like a horse antepost market where you can pick up 'free money' sometimes, in a market where they can change the rules at any stage, laying 1000 is scary (to me anyway). There must be some huge green and red books out there.

My opinion on low odds has always been the same, if something is 1.01 and fair enough it might be a 1/500 chance, but if I have €1,000 I hardly need a fecking tenner do I, I'd rather have an even tenner on something random in the next market. Its always a much discussed topic with different opinions that one.

Finally A Big One

He finally did it..!



Last night was great in town, shame I wasnt there but having said that I had no intention of going. Delighted for the horse more so than anything else, even given the history with the youngest jockey angle and all the father/son combo stuff, hes been called a fair few names at this stage and sure (IMO anyway) the only thing he ever did wrong was get sent off a near odds on hyped up favourite for the 2000G (and that form even turned out alright in the end). Some turn of foot when things go well, been a good season all things considered winning the Coronation, good run in the Arc and now winning at the Breeders Cup, only small let down was the King George but that turned into a bit of a farce with the early pace and poor Rewilding breaking down. Ah, just delighted for him to win! Woooosh..!

Anyway, its been a quiet week as foreseen with the Sky schedule, I tried doing the Zim v NZ test but it wasnt on TV and I hate trading on links, but must have been one of the best day 5s ever though, I didnt do the whole test but I think Zimmers went from 55s into 1.8ish, NZ out to 12ish before winning, and I think the draw was 1.5 or thereabouts with an hour left too.






Small note on Betfair being pretty poor managing the market, I paid commission with it at 1.01 they left it open so long (so that was handy for me) but got to feel sorry for all those who left money from 1.5 to 1.01 when the last wicket went down. Shite service really, put it this way, imagine if it happened on a soccer market.. wait you dont even have to imagine that because it would never happen!








Nearly 10M matched its not like its a small market either, there will always be snipers but they left it for ages. Suppose its a perfect example of Betfair rules really, there are no rules, kill or be killed and everyone for themselves.

Hopefully next week will be more eventful, I get bored after a while with very little on. Sometimes I miss the racing because its always on every day but then I remember the time advantage other people have so just have to think staying away from it is actually making me money. Its not really a bad thing missing it as the BHA still seem intent on ruining it anyway, "I feel sorry for the owners and a little for the sport, too, because I used to think the racing in this country was the best place to be riding in the world and you worry about what every other county in the world now thinks of you." AP McCoy speaking today.

30/10/2011

Well, absolutely amazingly fantastic week this week with a smashing profit of €2.49, I've got this game by the bollocks! WHOS THE DADDY.

So, anyway, it was a week of winning and losing.. there was only three cricket games though and the liquidity on Prizefighter was terrible so I never bothered with that - having the draw live is really ruining it IMO, it probably makes sense from a non-betting point of view but not giving us the markets until 2 minutes before the off is a terrible idea.







And I got caught up in that England collapse on Tuesday, theres not much you can say about it really, a top team (someone that isnt Bangladesh or Windies for example) shouldnt go from 129/0 to 176AO. I had this book beforehand anyway..






Something along those lines would always be my book (when things go well) just because its the way I always do things by leaving all green on the team I fancy, whether its right or wrong is a matter of opinion but its the way I do things anyway and have always done apart from when I dont have such a strong opinion. So thats grand - and the plan from there then is if things start to go tits up I can go level at €150ish green at evens, and thats still a good day. The only reason I finished with nothing is because I topped up on England at 1.5s after they lost two wickets, but again no regrets there because it seemed a cracking price at the time, it didnt last long though..! Its just one of those things you know, anybody that seen an England collapsing coming like that is a better man than me. Certain things happen and theres not much you can do.

Other than that, what I won on Saffers v Aus was given back on the T20 yesterday. The better news is I have my arm back, success! And even managed to get two rounds in this week too and it felt OK, got 90 first go back at Bellewstown off scratch on Thursday, anything under 100 would have done I only got the cast thingy off Wednesday, and then today played 9 at Elm Hall, got back to normality a bit and was on 34 with the 18th to go, and well, lesson learned about the clocks going back..


















It was fun playing 16 and 17 blind though! Looking at the Sky schedule for next week I think I have a blank week, but surely something will pop up, hopefully. I know theres sport coming in the early morning from 'round the world but I'm desperately trying to stay on "normal time" for as long as possible, there will come a time I have to switch but hopefully it can be pushed back a few further weeks. I have ten times more fun being nocturnal but really my life goes to pot, theres only so much nighttime gambling and drinking/clubbing/casino-ing the body can take.. Just think about it when youve a blank day of trading, youre very limited in what options you have during the night, great fun though, in saying that I'm ten times more healthy, and win ten times more, in the summer when life is relatively normal, I say relatively because this house could never ever be deemed normal..

23/10/2011

Its been a good week. Mostly due to the weather over in South Africa, everyone was watching the clean up operation via an online stream with no comms so it was hard enough to see exactly what was going on, but I managed to clock they were turning the covers over (or something to that effect) while taking them off - which meant they had to go forwards then backwards, which looked like they were putting them back on, but they werent they were just turning them over. There were four covers, they did it with each one, and every time they looked as if they were going back on the market was swinging from 1.7ish one side to 1.6ish the other, it was great..!






Then the India v England games have been good for trading, its following the same pattern as the English summer really except India have turned into English England and England have turned into English India, India have started odds on, England have traded odds on - India have gone from 2.5 to 1.08 then back to 2.1, even when caught you get a chance to recover you know, theyve been fair markets.






The whip debate continues to rumble on. Ruby Walsh got banned for a fantastic ride yesterday - but I think its "good" that the A-listers are getting banned, and I use the word "good" in the sense that its only when they get banned that something might get done about it, example being the jockeys didnt want to go out for the following race and only did when the trainers were called to the stewards room (apparently, or something like that). You know, with the greatest respect, if a nobody gets banned no one really cares, but when you get the A-listers start getting banned you start to get a bit of support and more of the smaller jockeys look to them to lead the way, so hopefully it might get sorted out soon. Although I wouldnt be holding my breath with the BHA.

Couple of stories to note this week, one being Betfair might have plans to turn into fixed-odds bookmaker (aside to the exchange obviously), I dont really like the idea - as everyone knows with books its all highly likely to end up with closed accounts etc and going down that general road. I dont put any pass on the figures given by Bloomberg - but its the idea thats the worrying bit. We shall see sure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/betfair-may-boost-profit-with-fixed-odds-sports-bets-numis-says.html

Betfair Group Plc (BET), the world’s biggest person-to-person online betting exchange, could increase profit by more than 50 percent with a new fixed-odds sports betting plan, according to Numis Securities.

In April, Betfair is planning to offer fixed-odds betting alongside its exchange bets to increase choice, a step that could help increase its dominance in commercial sports betting, analyst Ivor Jones said in a note to investors.

The new system could let Betfair tap into the advantages offered by fixed-odds betting, such as greater selection, earlier bets and more multiple wagers, Jones said. Betfair’s betting exchanges allow customers to bet against each other, rather than against the house, as at traditional bookmakers such as William Hill Plc (WMH) and Ladbrokes Plc. (LAD)

“If Betfair came to dominate fixed odds sports betting, in the same way it currently dominates overall sports betting, then it has the potential to more than double group profits,” Jones wrote, adding that the calculations are “highly speculative.’ He has a “buy” recommendation on Betfair.

In June, Betfair said it’s developing an “integrated” sports betting product that will allow it to offer more bets during games and other wagers.

And another story about our good friend Mario Balotelli - he set his house on fire this week by letting off fireworks, wait for it, inside his bathroom.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/oct/22/mario-balotelli-house-fire-fireworks

Mario Balotelli's remarkable capacity for self-inflicted problems resurfaced on the eve of the Manchester derby when he had to escape from his burning house after a fire caused by letting off fireworks in the bathroom in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Two fire crews using breathing apparatus put out the flames after being called to Balotelli's house just before 1am on Saturday to deal with what has been described as "a substantial fire" on the first floor. The property, in Mottram St Andrew, Cheshire, sustained serious fire and smoke damage, and the police were also called – in part to ensure Balotelli did not go back into the house. The striker is said to have been reluctant to leave his belongings and, at one point, to have run back inside to recover a quantity of money and a suitcase.

Still didnt stop him scoring two today against United..!

I'm looking forward to next week, will be hopefully back to normal by the weekend in regards to the arm with a visit to the doctor this week - I miss golf and the gym terribly. Healthy body, healthy mind and all that - its important to have a big list of things to do away from gambling to relax and get away from it, that makes it far more easier to forget what happened yesterday, be it good or bad, and start every day blank, the best thing about gambling is theres always a tomorrow to look forward to, because sporting events and opportunities are never ending!

16/10/2011

Well, its been a good week considering the body pain from falling. The blog name obviously lends itself to the idea I was bound to fall and injure myself at some stage! I have to stop laughing at other people falling too, this is what happens when youve been brought up watching Youve Been Framed. Dont think I've ever mentioned this but I got the name for the blog from the Apres Match piss take of the Carlsberg Gaffer Falls ad, and I thought Gambler, dont take things seriously either, Gambler Falls..





Anyway, felt a bit robbed on the boxing last night to be honest, I had it very close, everybody on my Twitter timeline had it close, and Dave Parris comes up with a 5 round verdict, you can always nearly tell when you search and see even non-gamblers think it was a rubbish call..


















As I said last night, if it was 1 or 2 rounds you know you can understand as usual because it was close, but 117-112 is just a joke. What can you do though, the worst thing about it was the market knew too - how Bellew was staying between 5 and 6 while the rounds seemed so close I dont know. Generally I dont like leaving things on Betfair in the hands of other people, because youre always faced with total gobshitery - but what can you do with the odds.

The cricket has gone better, except for England going from 111/2 to 174AO, that was a near enough straight line killer.















Funny thing being away from home, if that happened in England - they would have just shrugged the first wicket off and kept going but instead collapse. I got out of it, but only because I had a handy position when it happened, I dont mind finishing with a tenner because I wasnt thinking about taking the €300ish green at the time anyway, if they went at 6.5 for 10 that left 137 off 20 with 8 wickets in hand which seemed very do-able, thats what I was working off in Excel at the time but sure things change quickly, as ever.







I want to say something about the new whip rule this week, but I dont know where to start.. its a shambles altogether. As a racing man, or ex-racing man probably better put now, I cant understand why the whip is deemed cruel - I'm of the opinion that every "racing man/woman" can look at a race and SEE for themselves if the jockey has been overly excessive in his/her use of the whip, when you watch enough races you easily spot these things, IMO Jamie Spencer in the last few hundred yards on Cape Blanco was overly harsh..



Now obviously there are different rules in the USA from the UK - but no one likes to see that, when the horse had already won, but the point is you very rarely see things like that happen in the UK anyway, the ironic thing is racehorses are probably the best looked after animals on the earth. I would argue too (just for nuisance sake) that if the whip is deemed cruel, well then surely making the horses jump fences and hurdles is cruel - I've never seen a horse have to be put down from the whip, but I have seen them put down from falling. Where do you stop? Making them run fast is cruel, and on, and on, and on..

The problem with trying to please "the man down in Tesco" (as Matt Chapman put it this week), is that the man down in Tesco hasnt got the first fucking clue about racing. Changing the rules to appease these people is nonsense IMO, but then again what do you expect from the BHA. It all started to go downhill when they watered down the midweek racing to make it so weak, the prizemoney doesnt help then because of such volume of racing at low levels, and then you have courses putting on bands after racing to try and get people in the gates - clearly missing the point and not attracting people for just the pure racing - but when theyre given five handicaps and two claimers what can they do? The days of horse racing being the only available betting vehicle are long gone so you wont attract the masses like say soccer does, its a minority sport - so cater for that and please the people who are interested in it, dont ruin the game to please a few outsiders, run the game to please the minority - the loyal core supporters.

When the man down in Tesco who does one bet a year on the Grand National says the whip is cruel, he should be looked square in the eyes and told he doesnt know anything about the sport and to go fuck himself. FACT. Now you could do it more politely but they need to be told to stay out of other peoples business.

I actually care about this a lot because I'm faced every day coming from Ireland with "cricket is so boring" .. "have you ever watched a game" .. "No.." .. "Well then WTF do you know about it." Same thing. Racing people can be the only ones to judge what is and what isnt deemed cruel, not outsiders. The man in Tesco can keep his bollocks opinions in Tesco thanks, we'll go racing.

Out Of Order

I'm bunched.


















Movement with the hand will be an issue for trading, but the gist of it is basically I was jogging yesterday morning on grass in the local park, as you do, went to cross a path walkway and somehow completely lost my left leg and went down on my head.. ended up in Hermitage hospital for a cat scan and hooked up to an IV for two odd hours and everything.









I'm house bound for five days with concussion and casted for two weeks plus, so I'm not sure how the betting/blogging will go. But its only when youre being lay down in the machine to see if youve done damage to your brain you realise money and everything all pales into insignificance really, when youre going to bed at night you cant replace the people around you, regardless of what you have.

It was probably the scariest moment of my life not being able to see after hitting my head, I had to walk back to the house somehow too because I had no phone with me, did it off memory because I cant remember getting home, I remember my vision was so bad when I stood in front of the mirror to see where the blood was coming from I couldnt see my reflection, at all, then couldnt see the numbers on the phone to ring for help, I've had better Sunday mornings to be honest now. But anyway, I'm still alive!

And, sitting waiting for the cat scan, to see if you need brain surgery, bleeding on the brain, your head is all fussy and you cant see properly, you feel weird from the IV and your hand/arm has already been X-rayed and wrapped, your loved one turns to you and she says "at least were getting some value out of our VHI plan now Stephen" Oh yeah, same time again next week yeah..! Oddly enough we both started laughing and then nurses rushed in because they thought we were crying. You have to pay on the day (can claim back obviously) but Hermitage is a top, top place. First class service.

Paris

I'll try keep this short, trying to get on with the painting - The Arc this weekend was a great excuse not to start! Hopefully the whole redecoration business is finished by the 13th when international cricket is back.

Anyway, Paris was fantastic yesterday in the sun, I've lost interest in racing this year to the point where I dont even check to see whos running these days but I think we'll always go to The Arc every year, great value for the racing and great course - I think we'll always go to Epsom too, but only because it always falls on my birthday weekend, my days at Cheltenham and Royal Ascot are over I reckon.

I thought St Nic ran an absolute blinder, my heart hasnt pumped like it did turning in for a while, I thought he was going to win for a while. Then at the end I was thinking just hold on for the place but they always finish fast in France and sure he just lost out finishing 5th, still a cracking run, and while not good enough to collect cant help but still be proud of him.

I'm going to defend Heffernan on So You Think - not because I think he did well, but because IMO he only did what he was told to do, if I was blaming someone I'd blame APOB miles before blaming Heffernan. Given the wide draw he had limited options though, bounce out fast, cut across and end up nearly making the running or come out and drop in behind. He was obviously told to drop in IMO, and sure once thats done you'll always need a dream run through and it didnt work out.

Its a real catch 22 situation when you think about it from the jockeys perspective, it must be intimidating having Coolmore dictate to you what to do - so you go out there and if you do something that isnt what they told you and lose, you know you'll get hung, drawn and quartered (Spencer didnt last long). Then on the other hand, you do what they tell you, and lose - like Ryan Moore at Royal Ascot on SYT, APOB takes the blame and the jockey was only "following orders." Its easy to think about it like a punter, but the jockey is only basically doing what hes told by his employer just like any other job. In an ideal world, you'd let the horse bounce out and then let the jock decide what pace and position to take, but thats never going to happen with APOB.

But anyway, thankfully my days of going over a race, analysing and studying it are long gone, huzzah! Its only when you leave it you realise how much guess work is involved compared to in-running trading on other sports.

I said last week, with the house up in a heap I'd keep things under €200ish - that lasted three days, I cracked Thursday..






I was in the process of laying off when a wicket went down, but instead topped up, things change quickly..

Very disappointed with the rain on Friday, I had my best book of the week, ironic thing being England where in the middle of a heatwave, and its raining in India..







I always like backing the chasing team at Bangalore, its one of the best chasing grounds in the world IMO - its where Ireland chased against England at the WC too, hitting sixes always looks so effortless.

Was a bit daft on the boxing but only lost 12 quid thankfully, forgot I wouldnt be able to access Betfair in France so left zero on Rees and red on the unknown guy (to me anyway), it finished a draw.. lucky it wasnt a couple of hundred. Very awkward result for Rees on his first defense.

Also a small word on X Factor, the live shows start Saturday, the market has clocked the fact no person should be 300s, like Wagner last year, but its hard to find an obvious act that will be this years Jedward/Wagner. Everyone will be looking for the winner but theres more money in getting the fellow who goes from 100+ to single figures, sadly the market knows this now and doesnt have anyone 100+.. I think if there is to be a cult following of someone not good at singing it'll come from Louis four, Louis is obviously very shrewd, but I think atm the person he picked for it (Goldie Cheung) has pulled out - maybe she knew! It could be Johnny Robinson, whos 70 on Betfair, but realistically how many weeks does he have to stay in to get a good trade from 70s, as I said the market has clocked on a fair bit.

Last year Betfair didnt have a bottom two or three market either every week (and when they did they voided it) which ruined things a fair bit, the funny shit one will be odds on in that so it was always a great lay for the first few weeks. Point to remember too - singers towards the front early on always do badly, and its not an actual singing contest until the last five or six, as Louis would say "youve got likability" its whoever people like, Wagner proved that last year and remember when Simon saved Jedward (against a favourite at the time too) but apparently he "hated" them, votes and newspaper headlines = $$$$.