28/09/2010

Ireland playing today was news to me this morning. Liquidity was terrible but so much swinging about works when it takes so little to do.. it reminded of me of a GAA market in the sense that its not what youre betting on but who youre betting against, much like poker betting, there were no sharks today on such a small market.

Looking at the screen shot I laugh because no one could ever follow my opinion even if I was sat beside them, I chop and change so much its unreal, I havent changed the bank from losing last Monday (added €100 to it to back 1.01 at the end, people could back 1000 other side but no they decided to lay 1.01 instead), I just recycle money so much, I had €300 in but have managed to filter around €3.5k into the market. Probably explains why I have a huge disliking to upping stakes, am happy switching around with €300/400, rather than switch around with €1,000, that'd probably need more skill - which I may not have, certain levels of thinking isnt it, thinking changes with staking.

ANYWAY, thats it for the week, and definitely this time, I am really an addict. "I wont even turn on Betfair this week," I lasted one whole day before checking. They'll think I'm a heroin addict with the staking coming home off the plane from France, what a gay law no Betfair though. Nonsense. People should be allowed to do whatever they choose.

Quiet Times

Not much happening this week, both semi-finals didnt really suit (first innings was a winning score, price too low to back, no real scope for a bounce out trade either), and the final was down to 1.14 by the innings break. Sky put on two fights this weekend.. SPs? 1.08 and 1.06, bah! The GAA finished for the year last weekend.

The biggest challenge of winter already appears to be sitting on my hands while nothing appeals. I'm 9 cent richer than I was on Wednesday though, boom.

Away from the challenge though we had some craic today backing a 20/1 - 18/1 winner. The horse is trained just on the outskirts of Kildare in Kilcock, but actually headbutted my mate right slap bang in the face the other week, naturally hilarious when it happens to someone else bar yourself to laugh at them (it wasnt hard), hasnt lost a race since the headbutt! I had a tenner on as a joke more than anything to humor her, bolts in in Ascot of all places.. cant wait until the next horse headbutts her now we'll be able to lump on. The holy grail whaaa? Wait until a horse headbutts your woman then back it. 100% strike rate here anyway, studying form is overrated.












Betting tax was back in the paps yesterday, I have no real worries with them taxing shops, ways around that sure. The last paragraph bothers me slightly though:

It is understood that the Government is also considering wider reform of taxation on the gambling industry by extending the existing 1% tax rate on turnover to internet operators.

Apparently the books will absorb in the shops, because if it exists just in the shops and not online sure you'd be a fool to bet in shops then, so everyone would end up online. Who knows what will happen online though and through Betfair if they target that, that last line just leaves it hanging out there. But you know, talking about it is silly at this stage because youve no idea what will happen until December so we might as well just wait until it comes in and we read the rules, were guessing until then sure.

They tax shops - we end up online.
They tax online books and not Betfair - we end up on Betfair.
Some bookies absorb it - we end up with them.
Some bookies bet through offshore rules - we end up with them.
They tax everything - the serious ones will end up out of the country.

Its a bit of a muggish desperate money grab to me and will drive more people away than good it will do IMO, the clever idea might be to look at how horse racing can make up its 30 million levy shortfall, but sure expecting the HRI to be clever would be asking far too much, so we'll go cap in hand to the government, who cant really afford anything at the moment either.

Anyway, this week has been OK, even though I've lost it actually felt better than last week and the week before that winning. Monday was a shocker alright but nothing else has been bad, lack of opportunities maybe but not losing on muggish bets through boredom is the achievement there.

Looking at the Sky schedule for next month its pretty depressing on the cricket front, nothing at all next week, perfect chance for a total week off with no Betfair. Were off on our yearly jaunt to Paris the weekend for the Arc anyway and theres no Betfair in France with the law there - but there'll be nothing to bet on midweek either. I know I say this every year but its cheaper to fly to Paris and go to the Arc than it is to drive 20 minutes to The Curragh for a days racing. Really hoping for a good day anyway, maybe get the spark back for the horses, hopefully APOB will have a winner.

Also, highly recommend watching An Idiot Abroad, first episode is on Sky Anytime at the moment, dont normally watch too much TV, mostly movies, but its brilliant. If you like laughing at people hatin' everything its very good. Funniest bloke without trying to be I've seen in ages.

On Betfair..

"You cut out the middle man."



Unless the fellow betting is a big rich mug, then we'll keep his 7 million for ourselves, ta..

http://corporate.betfair.com/investors/fy-2010-financial-results/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/pdf/results-announcement.pdf

During the first quarter of the year, Betfair ran a trial service with a small number of ‘‘High Roller’’ customers. The size and scale of the betting patterns of these customers is too large to be fully hedged through the Betting Exchange and so Betfair has necessarily accepted proprietary risk on these bets.

The trial with High Roller customers proved to be profitable, but the volatility of returns from such customers is such that Betfair has now decided not to proceed with this product offering for the foreseeable future.

Revenue from the High Roller segment during the first quarter was approximately £25 million and EBITDA(2) was approximately £7 million. The results will be reported as a separate segment in FY11 and have been excluded from the Core Betfair revenue for the quarter stated above.

Hmmmm, it would easily answer some peoples liquidity questions. Ya never know who youre betting against eh?

Also in this evenings live chat:

Documents associated with your float give the impression that Betfair is increasingly standing certain client bets rather than feeding these through to be taken by the majority of Betfair's customer on the exchange:

"During the first quarter of the year, Betfair ran a trial service with a small number of ''High Roller'' customers. The size and scale of the betting patterns of these customers is too large to be fully hedged through the Betting Exchange and so Betfair has necessarily accepted proprietary risk on these bets.

The trial with High Roller customers proved to be profitable, but the volatility of returns from such customers is such that Betfair has now decided not to proceed with this product offering for the foreseeable future.

[Net profit] from this segment in the first quarter [was] approximately £7 million."

My question is, why can't these bets (in whatever size) be passed through to your smaller customers? Since you charge a commission on winning bets, submitting the high-roller bets to the exchange mechanism would not result in any volatility of returns for Betfair (or would at least not threaten Betfair with losses).

The impression, unfortunately, is that you are cherry-picking high-staking losing clients, while allowing skilled players (who perhaps cannot get on at conventional bookmakers) to fight it out between themselves on your P2P exchange. Some might think that this formula would yield greater profits that allowing skilled players to bet against high-rollers on your main site.

Thank you.


Over the years, we’ve been approached by a number of high roller clients who were looking for a telephone based service that would guarantee their bets were on no matter what the size or timing. These customers would often want to bet on markets at times where there was insufficient liquidity to absorb the full bet or on markets which were nascent. Given the size of bets made at agreed prices in many cases it was not be practical to offer theme on the exchange and the only way we could set up the service involved taking risk. We trialled it and, while were doing so, hedged bets on the exchange to the extent practical. That made them available to the rest of our customer base. Overall, whilst we made money during the trial, the revenue was too volatile and we discontinued the trial as a consequence. As an innovative business, we should be continuously trying new things and we should also be prepared to stop them if they don’t work.

What happened to the person to person exchange..? Interesting.

Betfair Suspending MILES Too Early..

Just been reading the live forum chat this evening and a question was asked that I've noticed myself too in the past, and wrote about it on here. Betfairs response is, well, a bit mad..

I have noticed when watching a flat horse race on ATR the betting is suspended and turned in running well before the stalls open.
This means the race has started well before the ATR pictures show it has. Yet at the end of the race the betting is closed as the winner crosses the line on ATR i.e. well after the race has actually ended.
Are Betfair allowing people to bet on something that has already finished?
Regards
Rollo

The manner in which we operate our horseracing markets is of paramount importance to us, and they are managed accordingly. Voiding bets can be part of this process. But the undeniable fact is that all in running pictures, on any live televised sport, are subject to a time delay, so we advise our customers accordingly. We do this more than any other bookmaker, across all sports.
As a side issue, it is worth noting that the official end of a race is the weighed-in signal, and not the “winner” crossing the line.

I wonder why they suspend it so early then? If the race is going on until theyve weighed in.. oh dear, head in hands man.

Thats a shocker of a response FFS, really, could they have not thought of anything better than "it doesnt finish until they weigh in." Completely dodged the turn in-play six seconds before the start but only suspend on the line part of the question.

Understanding

With the Betfair float news coming out it raises a few questions, many of them the same old questions as always. I dont know quite what to make of the actual float, what I do know however is that everything Betfair do is done to suit themselves and no one else, so as regards improvement for the customer - I'd be odds against. No change is the best we can hope for IMO.

I read a really good piece on the BHA statement of the float by Mark Davies here, expressing the opinion that the BHA have absolutely no idea what theyre doing, an opinion I hold too. But this bit is the most interesting because of the figures:

Yes: back in 2002, Racing was a significant part of a bookmaker’s business. I am revealing very little, and in any case drawing on residual and previously-published knowledge, when I say that eight years ago, it constituted about 80% of Betfair’s revenues. So, too, am I divulging no secrets if I state that now, it accounts for less than 35%. Indeed, I remember it getting as low as 21% of Betfair’s weekly revenues, although admittedly that was in a seven-day period when the football calendar was strong.

How exact or up-to-date the figures are is academic. The fact is that today, Betfair (like most bookmakers) runs a global business, to which the relevance of British horseracing is, unfortunately, falling by the day. This sad and simple truth is clearly lost on Racing’s leaders, who continue to play their cards as if they hold every trump when in reality they hold almost nothing. Indeed, most people have moved on to a different game.

Theres many reasons why its falling. But IMO, 1) Were changing generation, 2) People are giving up due to the quality, and 3) BHA are living in the past.

Changing generation could be a massive factor in the long run for horse racing. When I say 'horse racing has become boring,' my opinion is rubbished by the old lovers of the game - something I completely understand sure its their sport. But they dont understand (or even listen in fact) to where I coming from: the 20 something generation have all been raised in an era of instantness. Instant coffee, microwave dinners, 1000 TV channels in each home, high speed broadband, an iPhone because you cant wait to read the internet until you get home, an iPad because its too far to leave the couch, Full Tilt Poker have invented 'rush poker' - a game where thousands of people play one game at numerous tables and as soon as you fold a hand youre dealt another so theres no wait, the high stakes players multi-table because just one table is boring, Betfair have the casino and arcade (as much as I hate them), everything in life is instant. Instant, instant, instant. So, we as a generation, have a short attention span and seek action as quickly as possible - for the buzz.

Put this into effect with my day. I wake up at 11, breakfast, jog, gym, back at 2, flick on the TV - theres the cricket - check the teams, check the weather forecast and check the pitch, in two minutes I have everything I need, I'm ready. Football is similar, lots of sports are similar. Now, compare that to how long it takes to get ready for horse racing, how many hours studying form before it even starts? Two? One at least to go through everything? Theres a VERY select few people who have the will power, patience and time to do that - every day. Other sports have (or are) changing to meet this instantness: cricket/T20, snooker/shorter game coming in (on BBC this week actually), darts/the premier league. Those sports are changing to keep up with the giants football and tennis by changing. What has horse racing even tried in terms of re-branding? Stick a singer on after racing, hows that improve racing?!

The next generation havent been brought up on horse racing, and seek excitement without spending time or knowledge, and the old generation are dying off - the figures back it up, 80% back in 2002, and now that were swapping generations its down to 30%, or even as low as 20%. And thats where it is - one in five people (roughly as guide off the figures) coming into the betting world seek horse racing as their sport, whereas before, there was no choice. It was into the bookies, theres the horses - bet, but now you have every sport. Easier to understand ones, quick ones, and FOBTS, online poker, instantness.

Horse racing, IMO, will never return to 80% levels, and as the last generation completely die off it'll only continue to creep lower and lower because my generation havent been rared on it and see it as a sport of lesser appeal. Right, thats fine, accept it for what it is. Oh wait, the BHA are still living in 2002. Christ.

You know when youre in a pub, and you see a great big fat girl swanning around like she owns the place, shes 30 stone but thinks shes Cheryl Cole. Not only does she lose out on the looks department, but also the personality as she has a terrible attitude. Well, the BHA are that fat girl. Just like the fat girl in a bar, she thinks shes amazing, but shes far from it, the BHA go to the bookies/Betfair wanting to call the shots, act like the big dog, when the bookies/Betfair are sitting there going 'hold on, youre only 20%, youre no where near in charge here.' And rightfully so. Also, something I'd really love to see would be the percentage of traders in the Betfair market too - no doubt that accounts for near 50% (or more?), so if Betfair are settling at around 30%, the bookies figures must be lower when you think about it.

Theyre like that old arrogant set in his ways man who just cannot except anyone elses opinion but his own. Thinking what youre selling is worth €100 isnt going to MAKE people pay €100. So, as soon as the BHA understand their position and come join us in the real world, we shall be able to move forward then. But until they do, its the classic case of two nutters arguing over "value" on the Betfair forum in the middle of the night, one thinks its a "value" back, one thinks its a "value" lay, except with this argument theres no race to say 'I told you so' after, so its just keeps going on and on and on. Quite obviously here though, the BHA are the mug punter and the bookies/Betfair are the shewed one. I am genuinely surprised the BHA cant just look at the figures and accept theyre at best 30% of the sporting market now and thats here to stay, thats the problem with old men I suppose though, they can never see past what they think.

Anyway, I'm in the 'lost the will power' boat on horse racing at the moment, hopefully it'll come back, Coolmore have having a quiet year but mainly my spirit has been broken by the daily gash were served up. The amount of time for the reward just isnt worth it IMO, but fair played to the people who do. Got back on the road after Monday nights loss this evening anyway, am DELIGHTED that Eng won the series, with all the stuff happening (dont mind them winning a game but) didnt want Pak winning. (NOTE: its not over yet but Eng are 1.02, theres a decent film starting on TV, Pak 6 down anyway and not scored a boundary for 22 overs).

HOWWZZAAAT

For the past ten days or so I've been saying I've been on the wrong swingers, which is always the case after a good run it tends to swing around, but anyway try this..

I lay 1.8 - it goes down to 1.1 (head in hands man) - I obviously red out on the way down, then in flips (so I'd be originally right, sigh), then I change my mind when Bell and Morgan are there to have more red on Pak (the original selection), and then Pak win. Great! Isnt gambling fun.






Had a shocker basically but what can you do, no point complaining. What I have done however is withdraw to only leave €250 in the account for the rest of the week, or at least until I feel in better touch, no point forcing it and it'll come back in a few days. Bank size has very little, if any, impact on my betting anyway - the only reason for withdrawing means I cant lose it, which is naturally a good thing during a poor run. I did have 3k in, purely because I havent withdrawn no other reason, the only difference for me between 3k and 300 is looking and thinking "Oh look, theres 3k" and "Oh look, theres 300" its not like I'm gonna put a grand on something mad anyway sure.

I tend to never go over €400, obviously it changes depending on sports, I'd go €400 on cricket, wouldnt go €400 on say darts. I dont have a stop loss either because of that, if things go tits up I can only lose €400 at worse (seriously rarely), instead of having €800 and then a stop loss of €400 awe-red - which the market could fly through anyway, and I might not fancy the odds at that stage too. I dont bet percentage of bank either, which seems a popular topic, never appealed to me really, I just set the stakes on how confident I am about the selection at the time, but obviously with the limit there. I'll never be able to have one big loss that changes things - thats the theory anyway.

Also, I greatly appreciate the feedback on the college decision, I cannot wait to get it over and done with to be honest, get it out of the way and stop thinking. When I said not go back, I meant for this year and not like I would never go back. But I am inching towards heading back in some sort of part-time basis, I've been looking at other courses and theres a diploma in the stock market, which would interest me, they describe it just like gambling/trading anyway, and a diploma in sports journalism, dont really want to be a journo but anything sports related would obviously suit - both are one year part-time courses and so I could take a gap year from my current degree (which needs a thesis, I dont think I'm mentally there really) and come back to it then.

I also remember writing some time ago during the summer that I didnt want to end up missing out on life, sitting here on a Monday afternoon when theres nothing to bet on while everyone else is in college/work - there is that aspect of it which is pretty big, you dont have that problem for the summer.

I'm fully aware that gambling wont last forever you know and thats why I wanna look ahead to what to do, it'd be silly to think I could just win, win, win for the rest of my life. When I get asked then at a job interview in ten years time what have I been doing for the past ten years I can hand them a rake load of degrees (I already have one) and say look, I'm a smart boy, obviously I'll wear a bow tie too, a comb over and have glasses. Yep, thats the future! But I could do the gambling and amass the college courses, then I'd have it both ways - hoping that gambling would be profitable and I'd also be "bettering" myself in life with education (ya cant teach common sense though!), that would be the plan at the moment, but I'd like a challenge (in college) and not just learn this blah blah, something thats interesting - the masters course in business is boring (3% attendance last year, didnt miss one game of the IPL though, ha).

Theres no financial pressure at this stage anyway, if I was to make (and I wont meet this every week) say €100 per week while in college I'd still be miles ahead of where I need to be. It goes without saying my gambling naturally improves when I'm away from college though, I think maybe after 4 years I'd like a part-time year and then go back to normal five days a week next year, just for a change.

As you can probably tell, I've been thinking about this way more than my gambling for the past few days, no wonder I'm losing FFS.

Easy Weekend

Take a bowwww son, what a hit!

Anyway, nice relaxing weekend of sorts at Maher towers, havent had a liability over €100 in any market with the sketchy form at times during the week, so just took it easy.

Boxing: -€11.26 | Cricket: €12.84 | Gaelic Games: €12.14 | Soccer: €4.39 Total P&L: €18.11

Was €40 up at a stage yesterday before losing it on one market, and was €50 awe-green on the GAA today only to finish with €13, that sort of week really.. was also €60 awe-green on the cricket yesterday evening only for it to finish a tie, market void, boo, hiss.

Anyway, minus a tenner on the week which is OK, probably know to stay away from tennis in the future and apart from that everything else has been fine.. cricket has been hit and miss, I won €300ish off one market and end the week +€140 - done as much bad as good you know. But I shall struggle on into next week, I had basically a golden six week period there where I could do no wrong, included the biggest test win of the summer at €1,400.. gotta expect to flatten out with decisions and thats what has happened with the market swinging the opposite directions.

College starts not next week but the week after and I still have to make a decision on whether or not to go back, positives and negatives to each side of what to do - I literally have no idea. I'm leaning towards not going back because I believe people only go to college to get a good job and a good mortgage in turn, but I'm different from the "normal" because I already have the house paid - and I think in future I dont want the big money big stress job because I have no need for it. Its that JP McManus saying again, "You bet to your means." Looking at half the country up the swanee because theyve spent too much on cars/holidays/things, IMO I'm probably best kept away from the "normal." The only thing about that is people look at you weird when you tell them, but I have good people who understand around me, not many - and not including parents, but still.

In March (which would be my start of year technically) I was on 19.5k-ish for the blog, few months before that all my bookie accounts got limited which were set up for here, but this year I'm up nearly 6k solely on the blog - my living expenses amount to 7.5k a year, half and half with the filly, who has a job - so I'm nearly there for the year on the blog alone in six months, keeping poker and other stuff for myself and the blog paying yearly bills would be amazing, and if I took a literal reading of the blog I've been doing it for 18 months and would have nearly four years living expenses (2.5k away from it). My estimate on living as a bachelor would be maybe 9k/10k, but I think I could live off 5.5k a year if I really had to, and I mean really had to. Included in that 15k between us theres loads I could do without if need be you know, and if I hit the wall her wages would cover the 15k too, but thats not really the point of things.

My biggest worry for the future is will I ever need 20k per year - because I'm no where near good enough to meet that solely through Betfair, but the only scenarios I see that being the case is getting a bigger house (which is highly unlikely) and with kids (I kind of know shes the type to want 5 or 6 (foooook!) and I dont want to let her down like in years down the road and I want her to be happy), so then, when going for a job in 10 years time, I sit there: "What have you done for the past 10 years?" "Errrrrrr.. quick look whats that outside the window!" I've never even had a proper job outside gambling. I'm qualified enough to work in a bookies I suppose, I dont really 'want' to work though.. who does I suppose. I'm also in a lucky position at this stage to not "HAVE" to win to pay bills, I can go level for months without pressure, like the start of the year, I wouldnt like the idea of having to win to make ends meet.

But having the need to win will only happen if expenses increase and they'll only increase with events, which I can avoid probably, theres also the elephant in the room with the online gambling tax being talked about here, 1% on winnings wouldnt bother me really, any form of tax on turnover and I'm finnish though - 5% on winnings would also be difficult in the long run. Theres an easy counteract there though and thats to move country, just try and swap for similar house prices, cost of living would probably go down too, its either that or give up basically when you think about it.

Thinking of the future is a bugger though, ya never know if a decision now will only start to effect you in five years time etc. Thats the stuff I lie in bed at night thinking about anyway. I never have to think about gambling, I almost always know what to do (that I'm happy with myself and suits me, whatever about what someone else thinks), decision making is easy, its peaceful. Life, life is harder.

Never Learning A Lesson.

I think the title is very apt for this time, how long ago was the test match, a couple of weeks?

http://www.sportinglife.com/cricket/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=cricket/10/09/18/CRICKET_ICC.html

The International Cricket Council has launched an investigation into Friday's third One-Day International between England and Pakistan at The Oval.

ICC chief executive Haroon Lorgat has revealed the match, which Pakistan won by 23 runs, featured "a certain scoring pattern" that warranted further investigation.

The ICC probe has been triggered in response to a report by The Sun newspaper, which claimed on Saturday it has evidence that shows bookmakers knew details of the Pakistan innings before the match had begun.

"Following information received by the ICC from a British newspaper and its source, the ICC now believes a full investigation is warranted," an ICC statement read.

Lorgat added: "A source informed The Sun newspaper that a certain scoring pattern would emerge during certain stages of the match and, broadly speaking, that information appeared to be correct.

"We therefore feel it is incumbent upon us to launch a full enquiry into this particular game although it is worth pointing out at this stage that we are not stating as fact that anything untoward has occurred. Only in the fullness of the investigation can that be established.

"We thank The Sun newspaper for its information and cooperation in this regard and we will work with its staff and sources to ensure the full truth surrounding this match is ascertained.

"The ICC maintains a zero-tolerance approach to corruption in cricket and, as a matter of course, follows up on all credible information that is received, whatever the source. Any player or official found guilty of an offence will face the full rigour of our robust Anti-Corruption Code so that we can ensure the integrity of the sport is maintained."

The investigation is yet more bad news for the beleaguered Pakistan team, who have been under the spotlight this summer amid allegations of 'spot-fixing' against members of the touring party.

Salman Butt, Mohammad Aamer and Mohammad Asif have all been questioned by police over an alleged plot to purposefully ball no-balls during last month's Test series while a fourth player - seamer Wahab Riaz - was also interviewed by the authorities on Tuesday.

All deny any wrongdoing.

Its clearing an embedded thing in the team. It'll never change, because it seems they dont know anything else. I mean FFS if youve been caught two weeks ago I would have thought that you'd learn. Obviously not - and IMO if theyre doing it so close to that, it'll just never stop.

At least its not match fixing, but it makes you wonder are they even thinking of winning the match or winning the money during certain overs.

Its also worth remembering during the NOTW story, they said that they had already agreed for two games during the ODI series. I wouldnt say the illegal bookies do refunds or money back specials..!

17/09/2010

Been struggling to get things to click for the past few days, without losing too much but not doing anything great. Probably always gonna lose when Pak win a game so no complaints there, traded it muggish whole game too - but when on the wrong team things are always difficult I suppose. Eng done a Pak, 17 for the last 5!






Am happy for Pak to win a game though, I like them, besides all the madness and trouble, theyre interesting to watch anyway.

Still, only €30 behind on the week to here and thats probably an achievement because I've been poor enough, the markets I've won on have been handed to me basically with wrong odds with Indian teams involved, everything else has been well short of the mark. Backing 1.6 shots that go to 1.5 the other side, backing 1.4 that goes 1.6 other side, that sort of stuff, have gotten out of most of them the best I can though so thats a plus. Just struggling to find the opposite swingers this week.

An Taoiseach

Isnt it funny the way the world works.. newspapers (who have been known to write anything and everything) say hes drunk while being interviewed - and everyone believes them, then the man himself says he isnt, right from the horses mouth, the inside line, Brian Cowen himself - and no one believes him. Its all barking mad. Thats the final nail in the coffin for me running anyway, cant go for a round of golf on a day off and now cant even have a pint either. What a shite job, best stick to the gambling.

I'd actually make a pretty poor Taoiseach to be honest, if someone started complaining to me about what I do on time off I'd actually plainly tell them to go fook off, thats why I vote for this fellow every year..



SEEEEEEEEETHING.

Anyway, its all politics. You'd be hard pressed to find a large amount of people on Betfair who havent at least dabbled on tennis, I'm always told how its "great for trading" and people often ask why I dont do it. Well, I'll show you..






Its cos I is a mug innit! My average odds on the lay say 1.26 but in reality most of the damage was done laying 1.5ish and then Nadal hitting 1.2ish, lost €90 on that trade, and then proceeded to lay 1.22 red at 1.19, lay 1.24 red at 1.2, lay 1.27 red at 1.21 - as you do like. Problem was, and I only discover after these events, is that I wasnt clicking with conviction or having a strong opinion, so the slightest thing going against me means a change of view. One of those where, would I be clicking if I wasnt already involved or awe-red, probably not. I'm just no good is probably the biggest reason anyway sure.

Tennis is a funny sport in terms of momentum, I'm far from an expert but from an outsider looking in point of view, a player could win a massive game you'd think and would be great for confidence, match momentum etc - but then the other fellow serves and its 40-0 because serving is such an advantage. It doesnt seem to have much of a natural flow to it like most of my other sports - for example boxing, the ring doesnt change, the gloves, the time, just stand and swing basically but no one has an advantage in one round compared to another round - that tennis serving has. Thats where I got all my laying 1.22 redding at 1.19 from anyway. Maybe I should just do everything the opposite of what I think and then I'd be in clover?

I said best stick to the gambling instead of running for Taoiseach, I should probably best stick to the cricket and stuff I know inside out instead of jumping over to tennis anyway. It wasnt poor discipline however though, thats a crap excuse, I made the conscience decision to trade it and fecked up - no poor discipline there just me being a bellend while trading it after making up my mind.

Anyway the cricket, these Champion League markets are REALLY favouring the Indian teams, shockingly so, the prices were so far wrong today it was unreal. Unreal. Cant even begin to explain. How is 94/54 on a flat pitch with 10 wickets left ever under 1.3? Totally not taking on board how much 10 wickets mean in terms of swinging from the hip towards the end. Competition is made up of all the best teams from the countries too, thats just one example but it was so far wrong the whole game. Whatever about the odds, still need events to go your way and luckily that happened today, the weekend and yesterday Lumpy and his Indian friends got away with it. Thought they were getting away with it for a bit today too, three catches on the ropes, two off full tosses FFS, each catch was going for a six too, how lucky can you be. Pet hate in cricket got to be wickets off full tosses, and shite wide short balls - that would probably explain my dislike for Stuart Broad I suppose.

Happy to come out winning anyway given the tennis, no complaints about losing on it either.

Argh!

One of my main approaches to betting is to never let anything from the 'outside world' bother me, press, opinions, people, etc, and just get on with what I'm doing myself without prejudice, grudges or bitterness (be happy and fook it in other words), so its just me, the odds and the event - with nothing clouding the issue.

HOWEVER, how fooking annoying is that new Betfair ad! Sky keep playing it too during the cricket its doing my head in, "On Betfair you cut out the middle man, which means you could win bigger" - errr, except for when you win too much and then Mr Milky man comes and robs you every Wednesday morning for the PC, or commission. Besides, theres no middle man when you bet with the books either FFS. What a shite ad. (I dont pay the PC by the way my average is grand because I have losses as much as wins). Head in hands man anyway FFS, get a real ad.



The new Heineken ad, now theres an ad..



Anyway, spent yesterday wondering what to do and where to be, the four cricket matches all overlapped each other at some stage, United v Everton, both St Legers, Greyhound Derby final at Shelbourne, the Klitschko fight and the US Opens semi finals. People always say stuff like "What a great weekend of sport," not if its all happening at the same time! Cant be everywhere at once and I ended up getting nowhere, the slightly annoying thing is from Monday to Friday we only had one England T20 game on Tuesday at 6-00, which overlapped with England playing footie too, genius planning.

Today was better because I focused on the one event, the ODI, Englands batting was poor at the end though, cant help but feel I gave away €100 going equal green during it, they made me do it though losing wickets and letting the rate go up. In an ideal world I would have stayed with all the green on Eng but doubt crept in.. I was lucky too because Pak dropped catches again and Strauss was caught behind but not given, from the break though I always thought the odds were the wrong way around so was always sitting handy.






An odd week would be an understatement. The Villa manager market settling adds so I suppose that makes it look better than it felt - I had nothing at all to do Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, lost Tuesday but kept it small, scratched around Friday and Saturday managing to finish level-ish while doing things poorly, and then I hit one good market Sunday and I'm in clover in appears. You cannot teach it! I always battle to finish level when things arent great though, I think maybe sometimes theres an obsession with winning and people actually lose from trying to win, if that makes sense, (no it doesnt), sometimes you just cant win, and trying for the win when you cant leads to losing.. I try to accept those days more and more.

Same with last week too, less and less horse racing has improved the other sports no end, so much work with the in running delays for little return. More time on the other sports seems to be more worth it.

Welcome Gerard

Welcome :)

Ladbrokes still havent settled but I have €50 on him at 4/1 there also.. minus the €190 to green on Sven over them and VC too, an extra tenner from the books to the cause. Everything from the last few weeks here and here anyway.

Interesting to see how he gets on, hes pretty old, theres a rumor in Ireland today he wants Steve Staunton as his number two - my only guess there is he wants to see what Stan The Man thinks about tactics and then do the complete opposite to be successful..!

07/09/2010

About one minute in.. "Ah I cant sign Rangers gear, no chance" haha!



Alright, so I promise to never back Pakistan again.

You'd think T20 would be their best chance and bring the two teams closer together, SPs of 1/2 England 2/1 Pakistan arent right IMO but well, Pakistan are shite. Obviously the match fixing stories make life worse atm - I wouldnt normally be involved in scenarios like this because I dont bet first innings but like I said the SPs.. not again this summer though, wouldnt back Pak at 1000/1 for the ODIs. Ended up this evening with -€20 Eng and -€240 Pak, never great craic positions like that.















Cricket: -€20.80 | Soccer: €7.61 Total P&L: -€13.19

Thankfully the Champions league kicks off Friday in Safferland so there'll be plenty of games, theres only two games left from the English domestic on TV, I still dunno about turning nocturnal for the winter, whatever about the money aspect of it, I actually really want to watch the Ashes anyway.

The worst thing about the winter tends to be you have nothing to do Monday through Thursday and then tonnes of stuff happens Friday through Sunday. I wouldnt mind sleeping from 10 - 6 each day and betting all night - just have to do it properly, if theres anything I learned from last year it was having a normal day and then attempting to stay up all hours and be alert is impossible. If I did get up at 6 in the evening it wouldnt change much, it'd just mean my mornings are everyone elses evenings.. pints for breakfast? I'll have an orange juice please, ta. Obviously though it has to be planned out around what games I wanna do and normal life, it'd be weird alright.

In case you havent seen the Mayweather video with all the fuss its below, I'm a big fan, but hes a bit of a coont to be fair here. I cant understand half of what hes saying but some of it is fair bad. Reebok gave him a million for three weeks though, I'm clearly in the wrong business..

05/09/2010

Not a great day in terms of the P&L, but little else I could do.

Tipperary were just awesome, to keep up that rate of effort for the full 70mins, just too good. I will say one thing though, last weekend and this weekend I'll been betting in hope a touch, letting things go for longer, Kildare obviously was a bit personal rather than just gambling, and I thought Kilkenny would turn it around today with 20mins to go. Hoping for something is a shite way of gambling though, much prefer going with the flow on events rather than thinking "Oh they'll do this differently now in a minute," or something like that. Should have probably squared up awe-red at a stage on both games but left them, I havent done that for ages and ages though - I think it was more so the teams involved rather than me losing the plot. The really annoying thing too was I knew I was doing it both times.

I would talk about the cricket but Pakistan are just so, er, well, Pakistan. Shoaibs drop FFS, catches that and the market flips, such an easy chance too like, ahh! Its pretty obvious the market is gonna be in love with England for the next T20 and all the ODIs, so if I'm in a position of laying them at false odds, I should green out a false odds also - instead of getting caught up in real odds they shouldnt be this price etc etc, the market seems like it will always be short on England. I dont blame Lumpy either - Pak cant catch so no wickets there, fielding is gash so no chance of a run out, and Akmal is behind the stumps so no chance of a stumping either there. And the fellow bowling has genital warts (cured now apparently!). I love watching them play, its never boring, they dont half put themselves in such positions to blow it though, had England 62/5, then Shoaib drops Morgan two balls later.



Cricket: -€2.12 | Gaelic Games: -€261.72 Total P&L: -€263.84

Its been an OK week nevertheless, I wouldnt change the Kilkenny bet even though they were beaten, take it on the chin and move on sure. Everything else has been OK without being fantastic. Houllier is down to 1.3 on Betfair for the Villa job now so hopefully he gets it and I collect €560 - Aston Villa will have a new fan!

Welcome Back Boxing

One fellow is 1.4 to lay at the bell, the other fellow is 6ish.. and then wins by 4 rounds, some things in life never change! Obviously you know I say it all the time, if it was one round well you'd say fair enough, but its always some mad distance. Close fight, I thought Simpson won. The second fight was an absolute cracker though - both just knocked the shite out of each other, great to watch, hard to have a bet because it always looked one punch away from being over either way.







Cracking day at Leopardstown today - backed the winner of the Champion Stakes too, covered him and Twice Over, was totally against Rip, but what I won on the market today I lost back on the antepost market backing Fame ages ago. Await The Dawn and Lillie Langtry were pretty good to watch, think it was maybe proof the ground was on the slow side, Johnny came back and said it was on the slow side of good after the first anyway.

Engerland v Pakistan tomorrow the first T20, and the All Ireland final.. wish I had more eyes and hands. Both go off at exactly 3-30 too FFS!

Just heard the Rooney story in tomorrows paps too, been cheating allegedly..! NOTW run it too, here. I think it would be unfair to be too harsh on him, he surely just wanted to fit in with his Chelsea teammates in the England squad.. what a feckin' numpty though, as if this stuff isnt gonna come out eventually, prostitutes obviously arent the best secret keepers.. even Peter Crouch knows that. Head in hands man Wayne.

Villa Manager Market

Was really expecting more of a crash on Houllier given all the stories knocking about..

http://www.irishtimes.com/sports/soccer/2010/0903/1224278152343.html

Houllier interviewed for Villa job
Soccer: Former Liverpool boss Gerard Houllier has emerged as a leading candidate to replace Martin O’Neill as Aston Villa manager. The Frenchman has been interviewed by Villa owner Randy Lerner and created a favourable impression with the American multi-millionaire.

Houllier, who is 63 today, left Anfield six years ago and has been employed as technical director at the French Football Federation since parting company with Lyon in 2007.

If Lerner decides Houllier is the right man to succeed O’Neill, then Villa hope to make an appointment early next week — certainly before their next match at Stoke on September 13th.

Houllier enjoyed considerable success with the Reds and led them to a Uefa Cup, FA Cup and League Cup treble in 2001. Villa sources believe he has the reputation and CV to keep Villa on an upward curve after three successive top six finishes in the Premier League.

Before he moved to Liverpool, he also enjoyed title success with Paris St Germain and spent a decade overseeing the development of French football. Former West Ham boss Alan Curbishley and care-taker boss Kevin MacDonald have also been interviewed for the post by Lerner and Villa chief executive Paul Faulkner.

Considering the crash on Sven for absolutely nothing but a rumor I'd have thought he'd crash this morning, I suppose people a fed up crashing so many have been odds on already.

Anyway, have had €50 on him with Ladbrokes at 4s, hes shorter on Betfair. That brings the book to..

+€560 Houllier
+€10 Sven (Anyone but Sven campaign is going well)
+€310 the rest (bar Mark Hughes whos +€150 - but he wont get it anyway)

Another angle is to give Houllier a director of football type role and make MacDonald manager, which makes sense, but these situations have never worked well in the past and Houllier has experience of that at Liverpool. MacDonald a bit short at 7/4 anyway so I'll take my chances on Houllier at 4s, no real harm if I'm wrong either. ANYONE BUT SVEN!

Hindsight Is A Wonderful Thing

Really should have greened more at 1.5 - 1.6ish considering I laid 1.2 for €700, its weird because when I laid 1.2 I was thinking maybe get rid of red/go equal at 1.45ish but when it got there I was letting it run, they were belting along though before it all going tits up.

I love bounce out trades but can never quite perfect when to jump off for the green, I like letting things run to an extent, some people trade, some people bet - I cross between pure gambling and trading whenever I feel like it.













Last nights match went better but a serious lack of money in the market, half said it wasnt on in India, half said it was the US Open, I dont know, either way the market was a bit bare - someone took it to 1.01 for 7k when it was 1.08 with an auto back - amazing how some could care less about odds and just click, suppose when youre ahead it doesnt matter, it bounced back to 1.05 after, but that sort of thing would never happen in a liquid market.






I wasnt around today for the Am I Blue race at Hereford, the horse got backed from 33/1 into 5/1, Dean Coleman, a 5lb claimer, was replaced by Dickie Johnson (wink wink nudge nudge) and then goes and wins by 19L making all, changing tactics in doing so too. People can think/say/do what they like but from my point of view I'm just delighted I dont bother with the daily gash each day anymore - and for the last 6 weeks my other sports have improved for the extra time/extra relaxing. I bought the Herald for my Grandad this evening visiting and was flicking through the cards for tomorrow (normally dont even bother looking anymore such is the standard), but theres plenty of races at Redcar and Wolverhampton worth under 2k to the winner - its probably worth more to lose than win these days if you know what youre doing, if youre gonna have countless races worth under 2k you cant complain when stuff like this happens. The trainer said the form turned around because of injury (the horse only ran two weeks ago finishing last!) - in a world of clean betting these things should be out in the open (if true), and without going on like a broken record its easy to see why the next generation prefer football betting etc to horse racing because theres less deception and more information out in the open.

HOWEVER, being involved in a stable, without being involved in the day-to-day stuff, I know myself you cant win when you tell punters stuff because they moan regardless - if you give a bad report and it wins they'll say you put me off, if you give a good report and it loses they'll say youre shite. Horses are not machines, there are days where you just cant tell what theyre going to do. So I understand the lack of information in the open when I think about it - its one of those situations where you cant win with punters and they bring it on themselves - that doesnt make it right to lie though equally. It does seem the higher grade of racing you go to the more information is available to punters - these races worth under 2k are basically built for non triers, whereas everyone tries at Cheltenham! (Except when you back something and it loses and you post on the Betfair forum obviously, ha!).

Funnily enough I was actually having a chat about how poor horse racing has become today with my Grandad before I heard about this. I have no idea how to fix it - I dont know, maybe its just us, but a couple of years ago it seemed fairly exciting and you could have a decent bet each day and now its of little interest. Maybe I'm just getting older and drifting off to other sports and racing has lost its appeal, none of my friends my age outside of Ballydoyle are interested in racing, maybe I'm going with the times. No body knows the future but prize money seems to be only going one way, and it seems its taking the quality of racing down with it. Hopefully something happens to swing it around soon, that hope is equal to the hope of me winning the lotto though - and I dont even buy a ticket..!

Anyway, the world isnt going to end, how cool are these runners.. Floyd Mayweather Nike Airs, not really a fan of Nike Airs but Mayweather runners seem awesome - I'm waiting until Go Native wins the Champion Hurdle before they naturally bring out a pair for him, I'd buy 'em..