Boxing Day Blank

Well, I hope everyone had a nice Christmas, all went well here without a hitch. It must be ten years since I had Boxing/Stephens Day without a bet, it'll probably be another ten years before it happens again (or more hopefully!), but I think I'm in the same boat as many others this year. No racing at all made no real difference to me once Leopardstown was called off, but its been a weird day without it, I'm gutted because I normally see people at Leop that I wouldnt see for the rest of the year, old friends from school and college you know, theyre not there for betting but just for the craic like usual, a shame because its not often I get to combine gambling and friends who arent interested in gambling in the same place.

Anyway, The Ashes is getting the majority through I assume, the darts starts tomorrow. Premier League fixtures have probably been made ages ago but in hindsight it would have made sense to play Arsenal v Chelsea today rather than tomorrow, it would have been great, not that I dont think Fulham v West Ham is "Super Sunday," errr..

As for the week, its pretty blank, Saffers v India settled on Monday and I had a few quid on Leopardstown to be called off looking out the window when the snow came. Next week is sure to be more eventful, it'd be hard to be more boring sure! Aus have returned to being shite, even more shite than I expected to be honest, was against Eng for short times but managed to cop on and get out of that quickly, Eng will have to feck things up for a bit of market movement and unless that happens I think this'll be my final book..






Dont really fancy staying up, but when theres nothing on during the day it makes sense to stay up. WTF were Aus doing though, some of the "shots" were ridiculous.

Some good news though, The Rubberbandits Horse Outside got Irish Christmas number 1, BOOM! I cant be bothered to post on the Irish forum on Betfair anymore because its full of trash these days but reading it there it seems theyre giving them a hard time. Everything on the forum is always generally negative anyway, but I think shouting "fuck your Honda Civic I've a horse outside" when drunk is funny. As does the country when its Christmas number 1 I suppose, Irish forum is best ignored - the cricket, boxing and darts are quite good though. Well done to them anyway sure its a laugh and what the country needs because every time you stick on the news or read a paper you'd want to kill yourself with the doom and gloom.

Merry Christmas

National Hunt Season Finnish

LAST year's Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle winner Go Native will not contest the Stan James Champion Hurdle in March, having been ruled out of action for the entire season by trainer Noel Meade.

The seven-year-old, who was as short as 14-1 with Coral for the Champion Hurdle - for which the sponsor quotes 25-1 - was injured when making a mistake at the second hurdle in last season's renewal and has not run since.

Meade had not intended to train him for the first half of the season, with a return in January at Leopardstown for the BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle suggested, and reported his vets "100 per cent happy with him" in October.

Meade told the Racing Post: "He came back into work, but we weren't happy with him and decided not to continue. He will hopefully be back next year when the plan will be the Champion Hurdle again."

Thats it, finnish, might as well pack up if the best horse in the world wont run. Forget it, season over. What time is the Guineas at..?

Snow Ruins Everything..

Not only is there nothing to bet on, theres been so much called off theres not even anything to watch, never mind gamble. Premiership games called off is a shocker in this day and age, all this safety stuff, but the rugby league games went ahead not a bother, and Ipswich played on a full pitch of snow without underground heating.

Not much craic this week, Eng collapsing twice cost me money, not too bad at -€134, I can forgive one collapse but not two in the same game - thats Pakistan stuff FFS. Even India today, scored 130ish first go and get 450 second, will still lose but even so its putting up a fight isnt it, under 200 twice is just gash, good bowling, but Eng batting is stronger than that, obviously. But one of those things really, no point dwelling on it because its so random.

I wanted to do the darts last night but then watched the first game and wanted to kill myself. Anyone that saw it will understand. Worst. Game. Ever. Smith had a higher average at just 80, missed 26 darts at doubles, Hamilton won 3-0, it was terrible viewing.

-€106 on the week but got +€36 from Saffers v India (missed the first day and wasnt here to see the draw go 1.4s, head in hands man) which should settle tomorrow so it wasnt that bad a week, and always going to lose given Eng batting, I still reckon supporting Eng more so than Aus will end up being profitable over the whole series so no complaints.

Hopefully the snow buggers off soon. Glad we got the Fairyhouse card in on Wednesday, was a cracking days racing probably the best we'll have here all year, lost Navan today and Punchestown tomorrow, and starting to get a little nervous over Leopardstown at Christmas - that'll be the ultimate disaster, I cant even remember a Christmas without Leop! Was my first meeting to be ever brought to too, backed no winners all day, think I was fivers only back then, but had a chase bet of 20 pounds old money on a 9/1 outsider of four in the bumper and he lead all the way. My Grandad counted it out in the old red 20 notes, and I felt RICH that day, asked him to bring me with him every weekend from there on in. If that horse lost I probably would have grown up hating gambling, funny old world.. I saw Istabraq win that day too.

13/12/2010

Well, I came home Thursday night drunk and dropped the laptop, FINNISH, only just got it back this afternoon. Life would be easy you know if I wasnt such a gobshite, but alas.

The X Factor market settled anyway, but had the €50 green on One Direction, didnt see them finishing third behind Rebecca. I'm not a fan of Matt but he was the best in fairness, Wagner is still the winner in my eyes.

Got €44 off the India game Tuesday before I started watching The Budget and thats been it bar The Ashes. You'd be lost without a computer, jesus its unreal, I was here Saturday thinking I'll buy a netbook, how much and where? Internet. I'll go down to the local PP to have a bet, study form? Internet. Whats on? Internet. Best odds? Internet. So I went out instead to embrace life with friends, you know the people you wouldnt normally talk to if you had internet. Yeah talking to people gives me a warm fuzzy feeling in my heart, but I prefer Betfair.

Anyway its been a good week +€1,200, last two weeks were a bit quiet but just a case of sitting in the pocket waiting, IMO its virtually impossible to win a set amount each week so I'm happy being level for a few weeks and then having a burst, that pattern seems to be here for the last few months, I nearly say at the end of every week "and hopefully next week will be back to normal.." but then something happens, again, again, and again.. I hope one day to indeed have a normal week. But things are fairly settled in the main so I have lot of patience lately, loud children in public still annoy me but thats about it atm, betting is entirely in the mind so sitting down at the computer happy and relaxed is always good and goes a long way, just for thinking clearly because sure everyone sees the same match so its just how you process it. Being annoyed thinking "I fooking hate him.." gets in the way of thinking just pure odds. However I think I was lucky this week though, this was the ground around two hours after Eng won..

What Happens Now?

Online betting tax confirmed. Exchanges confirmed. Dust settling.

Leaving aside the bookmakers, because to be honest I (personally) dont care, most of my betting is through Betfair. And in all likelihood logic says the bookmakers will absorb it, although it remains to be seen.

What about Betfair though. Tax turnover? Tax winnings? Tax every bet? Tax every lay (as in people acting like bookmakers), hows that fair towards backers though? When you go on holiday and bet, are you still subject to tax because youre not in Ireland at the time the bet is stuck? Increase commission? What happens when youre obviously betting with people who arent from Ireland, that bet will fall under the tax marked bets, but only for one person and not for the other?

On the face of it, it seems totally unworkable. But here we are with it in the Budget anyway.

My biggest issue, and plenty will disagree but thats fine, is not the actual tax itself, its the tax going to the HRI when you bet on soccer, GAA, boxing, cricket, snooker, the list goes on. Incredibly annoying. It will help Irish racing I'm told, but what about the people who bet on soccer and dont give a flying fook about racing, and are being taxed. I like racing, but hows that fair?! This is coming from the 25th of July when RTE news said "all online betting will be taxed in Ireland to fund horse racing."

As I said, I like racing, but when I bet on say GAA and am taxed, I think its only fair the tax should go to the GAA, why should horse racing be entitled to revenue generated from something that has nothing to do with them. Simple really.

But we have to wait and see what Betfair say/do. Tax turnover/every bet stuck I know I have to move, tax winnings will be fairly alright if only annoying. The annoying thing being sit on a plane for 30mins, land in England, and not get taxed.

Anyway the show goes on until we know. Picture every bet or turnover, being €100 green and paying €200 in tax, dont think that will happen though. Obviously the natural reaction is to want to leave purely because youre subject to something that is fixable by moving. Thats more something to say rather than something to do isnt it. IMO I think it'll be commission on winnings going up, but we shall see.

Either way the situation with tax on Betfair is just a farce really and leaves everything up in the air. Hopefully we dont end up like France..

(All IMO of course, as is everything written here anyway).

Online Betting Tax

Anyone that doesnt want to skip through all the pages..

Annex I

Applying Betting Duty to Offshore Betting


Betting Duty has to date only applied to bets placed in betting shops with bets placed by Irish punters either online or over the phone, essentially with offshore entities, falling outside the tax. The Minister signalled some time ago that this situation needed to be addressed. In addition, work underway by the Department of Justice has been progressing on a proper licensing regime which will serve to protect vulnerable people.

The Government intends to include provisions in the Finance Bill and revise the Betting Act 1931 to ensure that all bookmakers taking bets from Ireland will pay 1% betting duty on those bets in the same way that betting shops currently do. Betting Exchanges will also be subject to tax under the new arrangements but the calculation of the tax will differ from that applying to bookmakers.

The Minister is hopeful that by including the high-growth area of the betting sector, particularly given the increasing prevalence of smart phones, the tax base from betting will be boosted significantly. In a full year it is expected that the tax yield could grow up to €20 million depending on the prevailing market conditions.

Just as important is the positive signal this measure will convey to international betting operations that have expressed an interest in or have already invested in Ireland. A location with an appropriate licensing framework coupled with relatively low taxes provides real investment and employment opportunities in this sector. The details will be contained in the Finance Bill and the proposed amendments to the Betting Act.

How Betfair will manage it, I dunno. It says 1% there, but I believe he said 2% in the speech. Which would be 7% commission, I think, but I dunno how they'll work it.

EDIT: Its confirmed 1% now, I believe.

http://www.moneyguideireland.com/budget-2011-main-points.html

07/12/2010

Well, that went quite well I thought.

Ashes 2nd Test

10-30PM, is it good night or is it good morning..?

The plus side of being snowed in, is you can sleep whenever and watch cricket all night, and no one annoys you and asks you to leave the house or do anything, its fantastic. The body and diet has gone to pot though, I was stood in the kitchen last night at four making myself grilled cheese on toast, with ice cream and maltesers - I'm 11 stone I'll be 13 by the time Strauss lifts The Urn, I havent bothered shaving either, but betting in the middle of the night is bringing me a weird sense of happiness. Maybe I'm going crazy, but I am genuinely happy watching it all night, you know that warm fuzzy feeling of happiness, yeah weird.

Anyway, I hedged on Eng runs last night (yesterday morning session) and laid the draw, I've lost around 30 ticks with the rain evening session, but I still think Eng will win and have got +€1,200 Eng and -€75 draw. Obviously you cant really call the weather to a tee, but we start half an hour early today and tomorrow, so theres 196 overs left without rain, say for arguments sake they lose 50, that leaves 146, Eng bat today for 16 just say, that leaves 130 overs to bowl Aus out. Even say another 10 overs lost thats still 120 overs to bowl them out. HOPEFULLY Eng have an above healthy run rate for the 16 overs they bat this morning (and theres no reason at all not to), and then they'll have around 375+ at least, maybe 400+ (Aus bowlers are gash).

Of course things change if Strauss bats *too* long (how long is *too* long?). I dunno, have to address those things as they happen. IMO 375 is a nice score to have, but I dont have big red the draw so probably more relaxed than a draw layer would be how long he bats. Declaring right away would be wrong IMO, and not because I'd lose €600 (HA!), but Aus arent gonna get bowled for 300, or at least theyre odds against to be bowled for 300, so say Eng have to chase 50-75 then, you might as well go get them this morning with no pressure quickly, talking about declaring straight off is T20-vision stuff IMO. Important to remember too Aus effectively have four 11s, thats being harsh on Harris, say three 11s, but say those four last 10 overs (only lasted 44 balls between them 1st innings), so you have another 120 overs, one wicket every 20, and then four in 10 for 130 - thats including overs lost for rain too. Probably WILL get rain but IMO the draw NEEDS rain.


















Everything was going exactly to plan yesterday before the rain FFS, I was waffling away on Twitter "Plan for tonight, got to be bat all day, have the usual couple of overs at them before close, hopefully add another 300, 370ish lead and then Aus will have to bat for the guts of 2 days without a real chance of winning, even Eng chasing 50-75 in the last session will be fine." Probably now dont want to bat again, but there was turn and bounce yesterday so Swann should be a serious danger and sure if Aus bat out the draw good luck to them, cant complain. Am happy enough to leave it as is, especially at the odds. Even leaving aside money I'd be bitterly disappointed if Eng couldnt win from here, really have to be winning from these positions, the weather is an act of god but hopefully they have enough time even so.

Anyway the week, been buggered with the snow like everyone else..














I would have went out and built a snowman, but the back door was frozen shut! Some fellow on the news said we can get used to winters like these because of some wind coming from Russia now or whatever, not a fan of the cold. I was sort of unlucky in the Barca-Madrid game on Monday, laid red card at odds on, red card came in the 92nd minute, it was the last feckin' thing to happen before the ref blew up, bah. In hindsight happy to get rid of red though. Only other market was the India-NZ ODI, struggled for a loss of €14 without anything out of the ordinary happening. Then switched hours for the test but havent really missed anything with everything called off, hopefully Eng win or staying up will be for nothing but to be honest I dont mind and I'd rather lose the €75 than back the draw at these odds so far out with a team so far ahead, just bugger off rain.

Also, welcome back Tiger Woods while I was writing this, what a fooking shot on 18, epic. Then GMacs putt was special to make it a playoff, still going on but hope Tiger wins.. cracking finish whatever happens though.

29/11/2010

Just sort out The Ashes market now its settled, cant believe both teams only ended up with 11 wickets each, and the draw is already 11/10 for the next test - on what is a historically flat pitch. Horrible situation really, who in their right mind wants to back a draw at around evens before a test even starts.. but then again on what weve seen who'd lay it because it'll take a fair bit to move it. Not something I'd stay up all night for anyway, and judging by the ground empty last night its not something people want to go to either. A bit of excitement please? We shall see.

I'm heading down to buy a PS3 tomorrow. Selling out on my beliefs what! The hardest thing to do was fill the gap between 11 and 12 before the 1st session last week, playing games is gay IMO but jesus its something to do isnt it without feeling sleepy by lying on the couch. Its like today, nothing until El Clasico tonight, which is brilliant when it happens, but its the hanging around for it thats the hard part. The cold weather might have something to do with not wanting to leave the house, but you'd be a mug to leave though, house - warm, outside - cold. The Irish Times said were supposed to go to -10 at some stage this week, oh dear.

Finnish

Wagner is no more :(

Thats X Factor done with for another year then. Toyed with the idea of going €260 awe-green this morning but left it, ahhh. Got €100 off the elimination market as a back up because of the double elim but it was worth much more if he stayed in, gutted. (Well not really gutted its only X Factor, but anyway money is money so gutted for that).








The snows back too. Feck. I hate the way everyone bounces around as if theyve never seen it before, and youre sitting there going "Yeah, thats my sporting week buggered then." I was looking forward to Fairyhouse today.

At least with the bad weather, we can look back on events last winter..



Your man nearly became a national celebrity for falling over, it was funny to be fair though, ya cant walk that fast on ice FFS. Incidentally, the news bulletin was how the country had ran out of salt to grit the roads. This year we ran out of money. We'll do something mad again next year but sure arent we a great bunch of lads.

Its been a quiet betting week, hence no posts, I didnt have a bet until yesterday, fiddling around on the rugby and horses out of boredom more than anything, obviously low stakes. Lost €60 on the India game this morning, got a bit carried away laying them when NZ were 8 down (went from 1.01 to 1.3ish before losing), but got a decent enough book on The Ashes 1st test. Only been able to do the first session each day so its been a bit all over the place but I'm delighted to be green considering I had around €350 - €400 red on the draw at one stage, day two I think, the pitch just got flatter as we went on.

Aus attack looks a bit weak atm, especially Johnson, but Eng have only had one go and Aus got near 500 so while everyone is sort of focusing on how toothless Aus look, Eng didnt exactly knock them over easily either, I want another look before commenting. I'd be wary to having biggish red on a draw in any test at any stage given what I've seen so far, if I had to pick a winner I'd say Eng, but with no confidence. I'm not one for chopping and changing a team once one game goes bad, but I really would drop Johnson and bring in Bollinger.






Remember to follow @theashes on Twitter for all the latest updates.. (OK so if you havent clicked on that, its a teenage girl from America with the username TheAshes and she now has 2,500 followers tweeting to her about cricket which she hates, maybe its the late nights and different sleeping patterns but I must have chuckled away for about an hour last night at her SEETHING, tweeting the same message over and over seething is feckin' priceless).

And on a personal note the Governments four year plan was kind enough to me with the property tax being €100 per year until they can test the values, which wont be until 2013/2014, €100 is a hell of a lot better than near €1k, it was like winning €900. On a more overall view, with the interest rate at 5.8% on 85 billion, we are fooked. Fooked. That is all.

Remember the Father Ted episode when they were complaining about the nude film and had the signs.. "Down with this sort of thing, careful now." Some fellow had it at the protest at the GPO on Saturday, only in Ireland..!

21/11/2010

For some reason I have an odd feeling today is gonna be one of those "where were you when.." days, the day the IMF came to Ireland. The numbers theyre talking about are flat out scary IMO. The bright side is I'm young and can control my life from here on in - would be so different with a mortgage and kids. Given todays news I dont think I'll ever move house from here (which I didnt really want to anyway I think) and dont really want to have kids either, but sure you cant say that to a woman like. Going off the rough figures (obviously everyone is guessing) I make it around €300k per head to be paid back, scary. Interesting times for Ireland, I literally have no idea what happens next.

Bit ironic that if I do ever have kids they'll be there "Daddy where were you the day the IMF came to Ireland?" Daddy was gambling and drinking in Navan son, "isnt that what got us into the mess in the first place.." Errrr, go annoy your mother. I only found out too this evening a friend is moving to America, pretty shit that friends have to leave.

Anyway, no betting today to add, minus €157 on Betfair this week but plus €272 with VC, minus €29 with BlueSq, an OK week without anything happening. Thank god every week isnt as boring as this one.

Blessed!

That New Zealand try in the last minute was needed, 30secs to go FFS.

The -15 handicap at 10/11 looked appealing with the bookies, especially given it was -16 or 4/5 -15 with most others bar VC. Massive great big problem though - Ireland "scored" what looked a try with near 8mins to go, I lay -14.5 on Betfair (short enough), try not given - so NZ are winning by exactly 15.. and I lose twice then, paaanic. Thankfully someone scored though, it didnt really make much difference which team, just to get it off 15.

I was gonna do the boxing tonight but I've had enough stress for one day. Its been (what has felt like anyway) a really boring week without much happening. I suppose I'm doing what I said I'd do in staying out of trouble for the winter.. you really cant beat that little adrenaline rush when I needed a score though. Very few times I find myself in those situations shouting at the telly, but then I get buzz off it, thats probably a terrible thing..! I even had a thought of buying an Xbox or PS3 this week its been that boring, but games and shite like that arent really my style, wait until the new year and rejoin the gym I reckon, I wouldnt mind a few more things on during the evenings atm - there is still stuff on during the day but I'm busy those times now with college.

I am addicted to gambling really, not in a bad way, but can you picture JUST how boring life would be without betting? What do normal people do like? They must have seriously boring lifes (HA). I was never ever a big fan of drinking, I only do it to see people really, but I kind of understand now why its such a big thing to do the weekends.. theyve fook all else to do. If they took away drink and sport what would there be to do at all? Seriously. Obviously theres family and stuff but I'm talking about cool things to do!

And a note of the X Factor - laid €50 at around 40ish on Wagner during the week, so got 2k on him now and €50 the rest, cant bring myself to go €100 awe-green because if he actually won I would cry. Surely he cant win though, but I'm not brave enough to do it. This is the 9th elimination tomorrow now and imagine the cash cow he would have been with bottom two markets, 9 x €300 = €2,700.. siiigh! Minus €300 the week he goes then. (Judging by the week we did have one and it was voided with him odds on).

Ireland v Norway

Friendlies are the devil.. Norway arent that fantastic, and we dont even have our full team out (our full team isnt that great either anyway). I always tend to lean towards 0-0 with Ireland games anyway but tonight looks like it could be a dull affair on paper. I said that when we played Russia and we saw five goals however..

Anyway Bluesq are a stand out 8/1, sitting around about 8.2 on Betfair so it seems a good price, Bluesq are terrible but €29 is better than nothing. If I had to guess at a team scoring I would say Norway before Ireland.

I just got offered two tickets for €15 total and said no, thats how boring I can see it being.

God Loves A Trier.. Take Two

I now wish someone had told Pak that too FFS! 7.5 an over needed off 14 with only 3 wickets down, get 9 off the previous over including a six.. and then shake hands, why not even try at least a little longer even. The market rated Pak around 11 - 13 and Saffers were 100+, so you have say a 10/1 chance of winning v 100/1 chance of losing (I would normally say teams wouldnt see the market but sure its Pak they know odds..!), cant believe they didnt go for it, considering the score they had to get and how close they were, amazed that wouldnt appeal. Even if they didnt do it, obviously one in ten chance, but try for a few more overs after getting 9 off the last one and then give up when it looks impossible. Confused, but still Younis Khan is pure class, its not too much of a jump to say they probably would have finished all out without him.

That said, I was moaning not hanging on to Saffers Sunday, would have lost more if I did in the end. I havent seen anything in the India game but got €7 off that, 4AM is too much to ask, 5-00 is my limit I think.

Anyway, on the topic of being confused about stuff.. why is Ruud Van Nistlerooy now working for RTE news?

God Loves A Trier..

If only someone had told that to Audley Harrison! FFS he never even threw a punch, amazing scenes, I know we all knew we was a joker to begin with, but that takes the biscuit. Cant believe I went out for it and missed the X Factor (theres a sentence I thought I'd never say), the Pacquiao Margarito made up for it though but there was a few black holes in the memory by that time. The thing that amazes me about Pacman is, not his speed or power, but his chin is unreal, the fellows hes beating are much bigger than him and he just takes it and comes forward, amazing to watch. Obviously would love to see the Mayweather fight now but sure I'm wasting my time talking about it until they get it done themselves.

Been a long week but no gambling, taken up by assignments (minus craic), I know by now not to bet when I have other stuff going on in life as I tend to be shite. As seen again by my book on the Saffer Pak 1st test..






Backed Saffers at 1.6ish and then didnt have the bottle or the patience to stay, I didnt give it my 100% attention and sure what can I expect. That €64 on the draw at 2.32 is really embarrassing..! Redding out about ten minute after laying it, head in hands man.

But I've been here before, think about something else and gambling goes to pot. Next week should be back to a bit of normality, just the one market this week greening out on the PP bet to win €39.

Bit worried tonight for Wagner, and want to level up if he gets through, cant see him troubling the big six so he only has Paije and Katie to go now really. Fingers crossed he gets through but I wouldnt be surprised if he was bottom two, obviously Paije being on first gives Wagner a big advantage, and I think everyone hates Katie. His weeks are starting to be numbered from now on though.

I suppose I better say a word on Johnny leaving Ballydoyle too.. one word.. delighted! Er, I didnt like him after this. Why take the ride off Sam? Funnily enough he didnt ride out much after that, and there was rumors he was unhappy with Joey getting rides, if you dont ride out can hardly expect to get everything can you? Maybe he was told not to by AP, I dunno, its between them, but I'm glad hes gone anyway and maybe next year will be back to normal and I might even have a bet on a horse again, ya never know.. good things come to those who wait, except Audley Harrison.

Another thing too, the budget in Ireland is coming up and apparently we'll have some sort of property tax, €80 a month, and water rates, I'll wait before worrying because I'll be only wasting my time but I reckon we'll probably have to have an extra €1,500 between us from next year on. That changes me going from €7.5k to €8.25k, not an awful rise but still a rise like. ATM I'm up €9.2k for the blog with four months left in my year, cash betting is down around €700 but thats OK after losing €3k on St Nic, poker is up a fair bit with final tables and I havent played seriously in a while. I suppose I know one day betting will end so ideally I'd like to save that extra €1,500 a year because the future is uncertain in gambling, but sure what can you do.. we were talking about it and as I said we can either accept it, get over it, and pay it. Or we can get depressed about it, moan about it, and pay it. So for the sake of mental health it has to be the first option no doubt. In terms of gambling and life, its just about having as little overheads as possible, but I mean they have property tax in most countries so its not like you can avoid it, still thinking about emigrating, Iran? Iraq? Zimbabwe? Africa? Afghanistan? Pakistan? I think I'll stay, sure it has to stop raining at some stage..

X Factor

VOTE FOR WAGNER..!

Got rid of the red, I know he has little chance of actaully winning, but he might survive next week, I believe the last 8 go on tour, and theres 9 left, hes been getting a fair bit of press so they might give him a late slot on Saturday - later the better of votes.

Still Paije and Katie, and maybe Mary left to go, he wont trouble the big five (unless he has a massive vote we dont know about), obviously the minute hes bottom two hes toast, finnish. Maybe another two weeks and he'll be between 25 and anything up to 40, worth leaving it for the time being without worrying about losing anyway.

Pak v Saffer 3rd ODI

I'll not comment and let things speak for themselves..

Pakistan wicketkeeper Zulqarnain Haider is reported to be at Dubai airport and preparing to fly to the United Kingdom. Sources in the PCB confirmed his presence at the airport a couple of hours after saying he was missing from the team currently playing the deciding ODI against South Africa at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.

The PCB had begun an inquiry into the matter and informed the ICC's Anti-Corruption and Security Unit as well as local security officials of Haider's disappearance.

"He is missing and we found this out in the morning when getting ready to come to the stadium," Nadeem Sarwar, PCB's general manager of media, told ESPNcricinfo. "He did not say anything to the team management about this at all. We have initiated inquiries into the matter."

A cryptic message left as a status update on the player's Facebook page said: "leaving pakistan cricket because get bad msg fr 1 man fr lose the match in last game." The last match that his Facebook status seems to refer to is the fourth ODI of the series, another closely-fought thriller, in which Haider's unbeaten 19 took Pakistan to victory with one wicket and one ball to spare.

Raza Haider, Zulqarnain's brother, said the wicketkeeper had reportedly received threats. "I spoke to Zulqarnain after the fourth ODI and he told me he had received some kind of threats after that game, but he gave no details," Raza said.

A TV reporter for Geo, a leading Pakistani news channel, said that he had received a text message from Haider earlier on Monday in which the player asked for security for his family and indicated that he might fly to the UK. The channel reported one of its correspondents receiving a text message from Haider asking for security for his family in Lahore.

http://www.cricinfo.com/pakistan/content/current/story/486103.html

I'm actually friends with him on Facebook..










Whether its to do with winning the last game, or 'trying' to win this game, thats sort of not clear yet because this game is the "last game" the series, or its the last game they played. This game so far has been virtually a 1.01 train bar the two wickets, with Saffers 201/2 after 33 overs, and it has not looked like a series decider at all at 2-2. Maybe Pak will chase down a big score though, who knows..









I have money on Saffers from the time the story broke he was missing anyway, theres a fair chance I was backing a 1.01 shot at 1.5, if 2 + 2 = 4.












Uh oh! Saffers lose three wickets in 14 balls with a run out included.. I've greened, we'll have to wait until Pak bat to know I suppose, wont touch the book now, crossing between Books and Betfair not great for managing positions. Zero Pak (minus comm), €39 Saffers.





Pak 66/0 after 10 in responses to 318, happy to have gotten out now in terms in stress, I think theyre trying now, but still think Saffers will pull it out in the end, no change to the book for the day anyway.

---
GSM Saffers, win by 57 runs, but Pak played well, bowling (which is normally quite good) lost it for them. Happy enough to have greened out given Saffers hit 1.8 after laying the 1.3s.

07/11/2010

Got a college assignment going on atm so gambling is a bit thin on the ground, I did get up early this morning for the Aus match only to see they rolled Lanka for 116 and it was as good as over. I'm a disaster for hard work or effort, I lay on the couch all day yesterday thinking 'I'll start in 10mins' but kept extending that 10mins until it was suddenly 'too late' to start. Its currently 4/11 the same thing will happen today.

Some great sport on the TV yesterday though, why move..! I thought United were gubbing the 1.1s again until a Fergie time winner.. 94th minute was it? Unreal. And the Ireland v Saffer rugby was pretty good too, I like seeing sporting events supported normally but it was good to see all the empty seats yesterday.. the days of €100+ tickets are long gone and the sooner they cop on the better. And the Breeders Cup to top it off.. the Zenyatta race was baffling, horse? Jockey? I'm not sure. It looked as if she was pulling up going past the stands first time around and it reminded me of Istabraq at Cheltenham, then she almost takes off, I couldnt work it out at the time. My only blame towards the jockey would be turning in, he got too cocky and didnt give her a good run IMO, I dont really blame him for being so far behind early, he was niggling her IMO. However, I've only seen it twice, couldnt watch ATR for long last night had to switch off, two words - Matt Chapman.

I had a rough day in the markets on Friday, which was half the reason for Saturday off, the rain in the Lanka v Aus match confused me totally.. much like my bad book on the US Open final, chopping and changing, not having a definite opinion gets me into all sorts of bother, I thought Aus 1.2 was a pretty good lay but the danger was if it rained it was finnish no trading, so being scared of that led to a lot of awe-redding and then re-positioning to the previous position before awe-redding. Exactly like the US Open basically. Any doubt with me and I'm pants, but I knew that beforehand anyway, nothing new there. I also made it €80 worse after the screen shot.. awe-red, and I'm pants too and make it worse.. again, nothing new there! In hindsight I should have just walked away but once the red isnt my max that wont happen.






Normal Wallet..
Cricket: €13.94 | Horse Racing: €7.61 Total P&L: €21.55

Aussie Wallet..
Cricket: -€256.69 Total P&L: -€256.69

Another reason for the weekend off is I've been living off blind luck lately without feeling shrewed about things - the Razzaq knock got me from losing €90 (at 1.01) to winning €110, I was €230 awe-red Aus game and then 1.02 was gubbed to win €900, I'm winning off luck not skill, getting rescued.. the -€260 market was bound to hit sooner rather than later.

Also, I'm aware now the blog is nearly turning into a cricket blog at this stage, but I now rate giving up horse racing as a serious sport as one of the best decisions I've ever made. For the amount of time that went into it, it purely wasnt worth it, and the other sports have really taken off when the time has been passed over to them. I still like watching racing, just as a betting vehicle I'm at such a disadvantage compared to the on course backers, and if I'm being honest the English flat season has bored me this year so I havent been fully dedicated anyway in the studying form sense, I also look at the BHA and think the future doesnt look fantastic either. I would still do the Irish racing but obviously being on ATR that just isnt even worth thinking about.

Its been about two months since I gave up the horses seriously, was hit and miss for months before that, and Betfair is plus just over €3k on both wallets this month (well last month, last 30days) and money from bookies too, although not much maybe an extra €400.. long term readers (if there is anyone indeed mad enough to read that long without killing themselves!) will know I often spent the whole day playing in running for €20, and I'd class that as an achievement from home with the delay and the markets. Whereas now, I take the day off, sleep if I've been up early or go have a laugh, I'm coming into the other markets fresh and without frustration, and overall just in a better state of mind. I think the general opinion (at least on the forum anyway) is that the horse markets are the least "fair" out of everything so when I lose on the others I can live with it being my fault. The last screen shot is the month one, the first two are the normal week ones. I sometimes miss the racing, but I'm all about whats good for the money :)

PS. No opinion on X-Factor this weekend, but still got +11k (HA!) on Wagner, -€140 the field.

Pacquiao - Margarito 24/7

Episode two now and theyre still at it with the bad camp.. you'd almost think they were trying to get a better price at this stage! I think the last three or four 24/7s Pacman has supposedly at a bad camp, then won easily.

Amazing Scenes.. Take Two

Well, I set my alarm for 5AM this morning and then proceeded to make myself €230 awe-red, I find life is too easy sometimes and its very boring just winning all the time you know yourself I need a challenge. Ended up winning €900 though - still the daddy? Check. I'm only taking the piss by the way, except for the 5AM bit, and the €230 awe-red bit, and the €900 bit, basically everything apart from the being easy bit because I was shitting it!


















107/8 to getting 240, just phenomenal, very rare I get nervous, it was that good to watch. I laid Aus at 1.5ish, watched it go 1.01, awe-redded on the way, and then laid 1.05 for 1k, and was of the view I couldnt green at those odds (Aus too low at the time IMO until the flip flop), cant even describe the comeback.. cant even remember one like it. One thing I noticed this morning, the Betfair super-bot obviously isnt on Aussie markets, because we were getting something like 2.02 both sides at one stage and evens to lay and 1.8 to lay other side at another stage. MELTDOWN.






Market took an awful long time to react, if I remember right it was 1.4 when they only needed 16 (or one/two less/more), that was an amazing price, wickets in hand probably keeping it high but they had put on a record partnership by then. I suppose it really was one of those "they cant do it, can they?" moments.

I'm glad to win though because I made a right balls of yesterdays game, found myself €195 awe-green..






Only to muck it up and finish with a fiver, put all my green on Pak. Sigh, head in hands man, they finished two runs short.. and they only needed 22 off 18 at one stage, and 9 off 6.. Saffers went to 1.02 for big money but flipping back to Pak odds on, amazing game in itself too.






Also a note on the student march, I wasnt there (obviously!), but IMO embarrassing all the problems with clashing with the guards, what a bunch of numpties, obviously most would have been OK but the select few went for trouble and probably add a few more who had been drinking all day. Just embarrassing really, probably the right word to sum it up. Irish bonds hit 7.59% today too and finished at 7.45% I believe, pictures of riots in the capital going around the world hardly help our image as it is, and it must be long odds on we need the IMF next year with those bond rates.

There has to be cuts regardless of what happens though doesnt there, whos the power, etc etc, we cant spend more money than we take in each year, I believe its called "common sense" but its a concept lost on some people. I know I cant really comment because I've never had an actual job, so I have no taxpayer high horse to get on, but the "I pay for this" argument they seem to have doesnt really cut it IMO when we spend €5 for every €3 the taxpayers pay, try earning €300 a week and spending €500 and see how far you get basically. The numbers just dont add up, and everyone can play the blame game but that does fook all doesnt it, just have to cut things to get Irish debt under control, UK are cutting, America have massive debt too, were not the only ones, it wont last forever, and you can just leave the country if you dont like the rules. No wait scratch that lets not be sensible, THE WORLD IS ENDING. FINNISH.

Incidentally, I was watching Reeling In The Years Sunday night, it was 2002 I think, and we had an election and the biggest issue and complaint at the time they said was the economy. That was eight years ego. Then, in 2008 it was financial armageddon with everything crashing. Now, in 2010 we are FINNISH. I wonder what new thing we can come up with next year, because oddly enough it seems life goes on and the sky doesnt fall. Although were told by those nice Mayan fellows that the world ends in 2012, so thats our worries sorted for 2012, we just need to come up with worries for 2011 now. Global warming is out the window because its still freezing, Liverpool to win the Premiership? Dublin to win the All Ireland? Audley Harrison to become Heavyweight Champion of the world? The world will most definitely end then.

Amazing Scenes

Words cannot even describe that Razzaq knock tonight, *literally* took them home all on his own from 11 overs to go (I think), turning down singles and just hitting 6s! Among my bets - a 1k lay of Saffers at 1.12 and a 1k lay at 1.15 (innings SP), I'd given up though and had a horrible book when Saffers hit 1.01.. I had +€140 Pak -€90 Saffers thinking game over. But just what a knock, I wrote it off, I love when stuff happens when you mentally book a loss, its like a double win. But having money on it doesnt change the fact it was just amazing, amazing, amazing scenes.



Didnt really fancy Sri Lanka on the bouncy pitch this morning, but they knocked the runs off comfortably in the end, was never in danger of losing too much but I was never in a good position either. I just noticed the ODIs will be starting at 3AM, I think I'll pass..! And the filly was pretty certain Belle Amie were going tonight so backed that, shes fairly shrewd on this stuff so I trust her. It does little for my win market trade on Wagner though as them going wont have much impact on the price so he'll have to last another week.

Normal Wallet..
Cricket: €115.40 | Special Bets: €123.63 Total P&L: €239.03

Aussie Wallet..
Cricket: -€21.46 Total P&L: -€21.46

Its been a good week, maybe try to improve or lower staking (probably that option!) on the football, the crickets been good - with a bit of luck today that helps. I do hate Halloween cant wait for it to be over, never liked it as a kid but its even worse now with animals the poor buggers.

29/10/2010

Cricket: €226.27 | Soccer: -€67.01 Total P&L: €159.26

D'ya ever wonder where the penny comes from? It says a round figure on the screen and then when it settles it adds a penny.. and they never take it away either, its never 99c its always added. I remember reading the forum years ago and a few people said it was the currency swap over, one of life mysteries eh. My football betting still leaves a lot to be desired anyway, thank fook for that Chelsea goal or it would have been much worse.

Pakistan went from 140/1 to 203 awe-out yesterday, I'd be shocked if it hasnt happened before, it actually feels quite normal now actually. They just cannot be trusted while batting at all, ever, under ANY circumstances. I was trying to do the sums to see what they could get, then a one wicket goes and bam theyre all out. Saffers at evens in and around the first breakthrough was ok I thought, but I think the 1.47 (SP) around the time BoomBoom was there/gone was even better.. cant remember too much, was at lady Gaga at the o2 last night, which was very good by the way didnt think I'd enjoy it that much. Went to the Purity Kitchen afterwards, which I hate, not sure whether theres four levels or three, but the heat on the top level is unreal.






Wagner is 5.5ish to go tonight so no point laying there, hes singing Meatloaf Bat Out Of Hell.. which could be interesting (funny!), so I'm on him at 48ish for a trade hopefully he might hit the teens should he survive this week and go into next, maybe even get a few good comments, doesnt take much to get big prices moving anyway. Only four bookies have priced up the International Rules tonight which is a bit disappointing to say the least, Aus odds on, Ire 11/8 which seems OK but Aus were all over us bar 10mins last Saturday. I'm leaving it anyway because Aus can "lose" the game by 6 points and still win over the two games.. those situations are terrible for match odds. By the way, how hot is Ronaldos girlfriend, my god..