I've Seen Some Things Trading Cricket..

But I NEVER seen anything like what happened tonight.

Everyone was laughing at Zimbabwe at 0/3 after 3 overs, yes 0/3 after 3 overs of powerplay! Never seen that before. Struggle to 105 all out. Windies begin the chase with the market switching between 1.01 to lay, 1.01 to back. Cue a total and utter meltdown by Windies to end up getting beaten finishing on 79, 1.6 million matched at under 1.05, 200 matched on Zimbabwe.

I ended up winning €65, laid Windies 1.11, greened out too early for the jackpot, actually couldnt believe what I was seeing, didnt think it was possible or I would of ran it you know me. Just mental. I feel for the 1.01 backers, but they did have plenty of time to get out if they were nervous, the first wicket didnt go until they got to 21, market was at 1.03/1.04 for ages. As John Francome says, if it hasnt happened yet, it'll probably happen in the next two minutes. Never seen anything like that in cricket.














You know I was just thinking to myself at 5 bells, bugger I've to update the blog but I've nothing to say cause nothings happened today. That idea went out the window.

Cricket: €68.68 | Horse Racing: €5.54 Total P&L: €74.22

Anyway, that brings an end to February, thank god, its been an awful weird month. Finished level nigh on every week, or I'd win €40 one week and lose it the next, found it seriously difficult to make any money. But some moves, bets and trades have gone completely pear shaped at times and I'll never complain about finishing level. If I can finish level when things go pear shaped, I'll take that you know, it doesnt pay bills but its better than losing. Glad to see March come up on the calendar anyway!

This week probably sums up the month to perfection, made two bad moves in cricket games and lose. Win on every other sport, every other cricket game traded bar two and finish level. It could of been a different matter had I stuck to my rugby bets but I changed my mind for a reason at the time and c'est la vie. Again you know I cant stress enough how much I cant complain with being level. The idea is, finish level through the bad times and then its all profit through the good times, its a fact I wont win every week and its a fact I wont win every month so its just a case of not losing the head when I'm wrong or get stupid breaks of bad luck at times. February has been a disaster for the stuff thats happened me.

Looking forward to going down to Apple to sort out this betting computer tomorrow. And its also the blogs birthday on Tuesday, Tuesday last year was my first day betting under Gambler Falls. I'm no good at summing up things or stuff like that, I dont want a year summery to sound like a lecture of what to do you know because everyone has different ideas, I'll try think of something to mark it anyway, leave it with me. All cakes, cards and nude photos by text (if youre reading Ashley) sent to Maher towers will be accepted..

ARGH!

Well, today was very annoying. Have to stop early because if I try something else it'll go pear shaped, heads gone west.

Laid the Saffers this morning when Dhoni was getting in, I know the rate was high but hes in great form and Kohli was there on 50 odd, at 1.1 there was huge scope for panic you know..





Shall I tell you what happened the next over? The two wickets are gone, and the markets at 1.01, brilliant. I've had sex thats lasted longer than that bet FFS.

Then as I said yesterday, if Ireland couldnt beat England I'd never bother with our rugby team again. They made fierce hard work of it though, in an annoying way when youve money on it, stupid mistakes and the ref wasnt the greatest. I'd laid England after the Ireland good start, to keep the draw onside but could feel England coming out on top, so went for a hail Mary full of grace book as opposed to awe-red, the red wasnt overly high either, it was 13-13 at this stage.






England went 1.3ish I think after a drop goal, before Ireland scored a try in the last few minutes to win. I'm 100% sure it was the right call getting out of €300 red at the time. However, for something I fancied so much to win, not to get any money whatsoever out of it is fairly annoying now theyve won. At least I didnt lose though.

Cricket: -€65.01 | Rugby Union: €0.40 Total P&L: -€64.61

Also, huge respect to Wayne Bridge for not shaking JTs hand this morning, why should he sure. But forget about the non handshake, look at Bellamys face when he was shaking JTs hand and look at the linesman checking to see if Bridge did, certainty that he had a cheeky tenner on them not to shake hands at 5/1. Bellamys interview after was funny enough too.

26/02/2010

I wish they'd put on a Prizefighter every second week or so, 7 fights in 3 hours, what more could you ask for sure. Was hung, drawn and quartered by the knockdown in the final though, last round and I had Flournoy two ahead, well, not until he was sat on his arse. Only loss was that turn around, apart from that was fairly good, low liquidity in nearly every market so big swings, the downside is if youve big stakes and it goes arseways, theres little you can do to get out, setting the staking as to not to panic proves handy enough. Pity about the knockdown but still a good competition to bet on as it always has been.

Woke up this the morning thinking France were absolute certainties - bombproof. Max bet. Then watched RTEs buildup and laid it back. They all went with a France win but with a tight game, Les Bleus are a bit flowery at the best of times so backed out (then it was 20-0 at HT!), the boxing was on too so didnt want to be left worrying over two things at the same time. They went from 1.4 to 1.03, then back to 1.4, who knows what I would of done. Dont regret laying it back anyway. I'll cry if Ireland dont beat England tomorrow, if we cant beat that Johnson team we might as well pack it in sure. Not dead keen on backing at SP though, would rather watch the first 20 minutes, see what the story is and go from there. Think the market will be in love with England for most of the game, has been for the two England games previous.

Tomorrow we have a full racing schedule, Premiership schedule and all the footie lower league games that goes with it, two Six Nations games, the winter Olympics and a ODI Saffers v India.. I go 1.4 a crash! And ya wouldnt lay it would you! Hopefully we get through everything anyway, and if it does indeed crash hopefully its only for 10 minutes or so and not while I (or you!) have a bet on. I've no faith in them getting through but would like to be proved wrong.

25/02/2010

Darts: €10.09 | Horse Racing: -€30.00 Total P&L: -€19.91

Bit of a nothing day really for gambling. But spent most of the afternoon down in Apple Dublin sorting out a purposely built computer for me, really good bunch of lads down there and went through everything with me. Had to order in a few bits and pieces, and back down to put it all together on Monday, seriously looking forward to it, theyre going to go through it with me as they put everything together so it'll really be set to my needs and just be the ultimate gambling computer, I'll be able to put on a bet quicker than Paul Nicholls hands over a 20 pound note in a pie shop soon!

I dont necessarily 'need' it given I've always used the normal site, but just having been down the IFSC to use Gruss, and just seeing how easier life can be. Take away 3 clicks and turn it into one, its so handy, why wouldnt you use it you know, it can only improve things. Booked myself in for a Gruss trading seminar on the 7th of March too so I'll know absolutely everything about the software then. I like the way its called a 'trading' seminar, dont ya know I'll be the black sheep down the back of the room, "go on let it ride to fook, go on, go on." If he says green out after 5 ticks I'll be incan-bloomin-descent. I'll learn plenty though I presume.

Delighted to see Whitlock come back to a bit of form tonight, no bet on the match, but theres no end to the amount of time I have for him. Got really lucky in the first two matches, laid both winners, but managed to go awe-red pretty quickly after laying them and go from there, just pure luck split second change of mind, both never traded higher than the price I laid them at.

Small bet on kerb Appeal given he was such a high price at 17, in my opinion the only reason he was so high was because Rubs was on the stable mate, Rubs was 7ish and Kerb was 16ish, madness. Sure enough he finished in front of Ruby but could only manage a well beaten 3rd all the same. Drop him back to a quickly run 2M or 2M2F at the Punchestown or Fairyhouse big meetings and I think he'll skate in, like Dr Whizz he'll be a high enough price too I reckon. Just need the big jockeys to stay away from them.

And quickly went through the stats for Englands tour of Bangladesh starting on Sunday. One massive point, of the last 17 ODIs played there, theyve ALL been won by the side thats chasing. There must be a huge dew factor, but sure youre only guessing what conditions will be like until you see them you know. One thing though, if Capitan Cook wins the toss and decides to bat first given those stats it will be the biggest head in hands man moment ever! Hopefully they drop Denly and open with Kieswetter, have him play wicket keeper as well and then play an extra bowler, spinner if you bowl first because the pitches out there will suit spin, very hard to bowl with a wet ball if youre bowling second so again if Cook says "we'll have a bat mate" after the toss he'll go down as the biggest plonker going, 17 out of 17 FFS, surely someone in the England staff will know. If not, I'm available, I'm not English so I presume that gives me great marks already going for the interview..

Winter Olympics Tip

Spandex. Its not for everyone..

Meltdown..

Lalit Modi (IPL Chairman) seems like hes having a mental breakdown on twitter as we speak (I think!).

"If a few players play into the hands of the fica and not show up - no issues. We will allow replacement for those who decide not to show up. They risk being in future IPL. The call will be there's"

"Been told Ricky Ponting pressuring players not to come. Maybe its due to the fact he was dropped from KKR."

SERIOUSLY. Who the fook does he think he is having a go there!

Ponting is retired from 20/20. And Ponting went to India with Australia and I believe they whipped them in the ODIs, Ponting is one of the greatest players alive, what has Modi ever done?

Hes had about 30 tweets in 20 minutes, all having a go at someone or something. I think the word I'm looking for to describe him is.. SEETHING.

http://twitter.com/LalitKModi

Anyway, India currently playing Saffers at the moment, on 219-2 with Sachin there in the 120s, I'm not involved yet. Having seen the pitch, outfield, bowlers and batting lineups, any score is possible, this could be 400 plays 400. If there was ever a time not to lump on a short price with a high score this is it..

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EDIT at 1-00PM. What an absolute pleasure to see Sachin make 200, never been done before in a ODI, amazing to watch it happen live. As expected India get 400, ground is small, pitch is like a snooker table, outfield is lightning. I'm happy to lay a bit of 1.18 here, think the Saffers will make a fight of it. Ideally I'd like to be around 80-0 after 10 overs, or if one of the openers wants to try hit 50 off 20 balls then gets out thats fine by me too (Gibbs). Happy with taking on the Indian bowling (whats new!) on a flat pitch. If it goes straight to 1.01 I'll have no complaints either.





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Didnt see them sending in Van Der Merwe (a hit and hope bloke) so early, two wickets down, were still at 1.16/1.17 to back. Will see what happens now for a bit. Two key players there now. Funnily enough the RRR has come down since the start, just need to keep wickets without doing anything stupid.

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Amla gone. I'm gone out of the market. Theyre 14 runs ahead of where India where at this point. No idea why they think they need to slog every ball, pitch is still perfect just play normal and it goes for 4.






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Market is unreal jumpy to support the Saffers! RRR isnt a problem, its the batting attitude that is, if they start looking for singles and twos, I'd be on them again, not now though.

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Saffers shot to pieces here, Duminy plays down the wrong line, Petersen goes for a slog and misses straight through. Glad I got out for a near half loss when I did, theyve really gone about this the wrong way, 400 is a massive score though so I suppose they had reason. Booked the loss and off out for the Inter v Chelsea game.

23/02/2010

Nackered after a day in the exchange shop, went OK and no major scares. Dessie Scahill called the wrong faller in one race at Fairyhouse - matched at 1000, nearly chaos for someone (not the first time Des has done it either), went to a low of 1.6ish before getting chinned on the line. Yours truly backed it at 90, 60, 30 and 21 but did I go awe-green? Nope. Dont regret it in the slightest though, thats racing, I took my chances, I backed my opinion, I was wrong this time, thats no harm, I've no complaints.

That was the one major event, rest was run of the mill racing really, I do have a problem in the sense that when I'm at home my mind is programmed to be delighted with a €30 or €40 win, I generally "aim" for €20, being behind I know if I aim any higher theres a fair chance I'll get burned. When I go to the exchange shop, I start 40 quid behind, so my normal 'fantastic' day doesnt look so fantastic, making that leap from winning €40 mode to winning €100+ mode is fairly difficult when youve been doing the first one for a whole year, I cant just flick a switch you know. The best thing about the exchange shop is though, its very difficult to lose, bar I do something really stupid, I dont take that many chances and its hard to lose. Its still the same for winning, its hard to win, it isnt easy, its just finding the times to click. And also, if I move up a level in stakes aiming for the €100 rather than the €40, will I have the same thinking, different money levels makes you think different.

People can argue that point, look around at all the "practice" and "training" type blogs, but €10 liability is a lot different than €1,000 liability when youre looking at the screen. Would I have a tenner on something without thinking? Yes. Would I have €1,000 on something without thinking? No! I'd twitch at the grand, I couldnt care less about the tenner (I'd never bet €1,000 in running mind, just an example). Also, whats better for me, stay at home and win €20 from being behind, or go to the exchange shop and win €60 minus the €40 from being in front. Some races, its easy, its handy, its effortless. Some other races though, I find myself doing the exact same thing I'd be doing sat at home. It works both ways I suppose.

Dr Whizz was hugely disappointing today, hes a horse I really like, ground went against him and he didnt get an ideal ride off McCoy for the type of horse he is. Hes a Russell/Carbs type horse, sit there doing nothing and wait until after the last, Russell did that with him in Leopardstown and Patrick did it in his bumper. McCoy rushed him up to try and take the lead turning in today, it was never going to work. Winner was impressive though, but Dr Whizz in a handicap in Punchestown at the end of the season at 10/1 or so with a quietly does it type jockey on him, I shall be ready..

Horse Racing: €44.83 Total P&L: €44.83

Australia went the whole summer unbeaten this morning in the cricket. Warners innings was class, although you'd question the bowling. I said here ages ago Australia would win every game against the West Indies, they won the ODIs 4-0 and the T20 2-0. Now Stephen, why didnt you back them every game after you said it? Because Sir, I'm an awful eejit..

I did back them this morning though, better late than never.

21/02/2010

Hugely frustrating afternoon on the Saffers. India posted 298 (I'd small bet on over 300 too FFS), market was evens the pair, made it around par, so watched the first few overs to see what happened. Saffers go down to the 1.3s! Two wickets gone and back to evens, so I'm involved. I've a long list of complaints.. ABs shot - woeful for him, Petersen not running his bat in - SEETHING because I thought it wasnt out, could of controlled the book but was expecting "not out" on the big screen, up pops out and the market goes from 1.8ish Saffers to 1.6 India. Then Albie Morkel comes him, Kallis still there on 60 odd, so I support them and hold onto my position, Morkel plays across a straight ball missing and its LBW, its 1.25 India and its goodnight, thanks for coming Stephen.

Could of done plenty of things better, that grounded bat decision was a real kick in the balls, I was grand before that, it completely changed the game. Anyway, these things happen, more I think about it, the more I'll annoy myself. Was left with one of those hope and pray books..







And to annoy myself even more, Kallis stayed there, they needed 120/96 (which generally appeals to me more times than not), so I laid a bit of the 1.1s and lost an extra few quid. Kallis had a good knock, seriously pissed me off with his use of the Powerplay though, the RRR went up while they were in it FFS, then he got out, and they end up losing by just ONE run, one poxy run. Ahhhh. One of those games to forget.

I'm full sure Saffers should have won that game, full sure, but anyway. Whats even more annoying for me is that I spend all week winning €220 and then go and lose €250 on Sunday, more than annoying actually. You make ground, then BAM, back to square one.

Anyway, its not the first time gambling on something has annoyed me and certainly wont be the last.. onwards to next week. Highly recommend the song below..

Should We All Be Lumping On?

What if I told you the bet I'm about to name has run 130 times, and not lost once in those 130 runs, a 100% record, dating back to 2003. Would ya be interested?

His name - Jose Mourinho. And his home league record.

Forget cups, Champions League, friendlys and away games. Mourinho hasnt been beaten at home in the league since 2003, over 130 games.

I only found out this flicking between channels, Inter were down to 9 men at HT to Sampdoria, sitting 5th in Serie A, unbeaten in their last five games. And Inter made it look easy, defending out a 0-0, Samp had one shot on target the whole half.

Its a fact they'll lose the next game now I've cottoned on to it! But its definitely worth €100 of my money. Laying whoever plays Inter when theyre at home, in the league, for a set liability of €100. I did toy with the idea of an awe-in tactic, but theres always going to be that one day to kick you.

As with the rest of my previous failed football efforts, I'll keep it away from Betfair and on Betdaq, we'll see how long this one lasts, hopefully longer than the other goes.

Also, for anyone heading to Naas tomorrow, its lashing snow in Kildare at the moment and sticking pretty heavy, unless it stops soon I'd say the meeting is in serious doubt.

What Else Would You Be Doing..

Saturday afternoon 20/20 cricket. For me, I dont think theres anything better to do, win or lose. And Betfair didnt even crash, has this ever happened before?!

Abdul Razzaq, 46 off 18 balls. Immense, just absolutely immense. He was 25 off 9 at one stage! 25 off 9 FFS, if someone like Pollard, White or Taylor did that you'd never hear the end of it. He never even hit a 4, just kept hitting 6s, amazing scenes.

Obviously I'm incredibly bias having laid England at 1.15, and have got a full blown man crush now. The only reason I laid England was theyre on my list of teams/players to lay short, funnily enough Pakistan are on that list too, West Indies are in there also, the usual ones. But the market swung from 1.15 England to 1.15 Pakistan in two overs sure.

Before that, it was the hardest game I've traded in a while. Just, cant trust Pakistan, cant trust England, it was awkward. Englands bowling lineup is weak and Pakistans batting lineup is mental, theyre all nutters. Was level after spending the whole day trading it, then get €130 awe-green for less than two minutes. It'd be great if I could time it for that two minutes and then bugger off for the rest of the day, doesnt work like that though unfortunately.

Reckon England really have to get rid of Denly as opener. They cant have Trott there too, he ended on 39 off 51, for someone opening with the Powerplay thats brutal. Both seem to need time to "get in" and you need a hitter, cant have two slow starters, youre on the back foot from the word go almost. Trotts innings probably cost England 10 more runs, and probably the game then you could argue. Denly didnt score any, when has he sure? Get someone else to open with the go ahead to take on the bowling, they nearly have the longest batting lineup in international cricket.

Look at the others sure..
Australia have Watson.
India have Sehwag.
West Indies have Gayle.
Sri Lanka have Dilshan.
New Zealand have McCullum.
Saffers have Smith (and Gibbs before).
And Pakistan have bleedin' everyone to whack it!

Why cant England follow with an opener to have a whack. They open with Denly and Trott in 20/20 and Strauss and Denly in 50/50, all slowish starters. I know the hitter wont work every time, sure look at the others, Gayle often goes for less than 20, Sehwag first ball etc. When that happens in England straight away heads are called for and its back to square one, the other countries give them time. They need a hitter, and no it wont work every time, but its better than getting a duck off 5 or 10 off 20. Sometimes 15 off 8 is enough, gets things going, bit of panic in the field and a bit of shouting in the crowd. Swann was number 11 today, and has scored 50s in test cricket and ODIs, theres no reason why they need to "keep" wickets in every game, its 20/20, have a whack. Pakistan lost two wickets in the first over today and still finished with the same number of wickets lost as England did.

Anyway, KP went up around 10 times in my estimation for running out Trott, Trott roared no the minute he hit it, KP just ran, it was on purpose 100%, you had to see it to know what he did. Fair played to him. Its a shame all the shite that went on in the camp with the coaching staff when he was captain.

Excel shows it was pretty much a certainty that England were winning before Razzaq, it was rightfully in the 1.1s, I wasnt even laying the 1.15 as a winning bet, it was one of those "scope for panic" bets that I like. Sometimes costs me, sometimes works.

19/02/2010

Jaysus, stomach is a bit dodgey after watching the boxing, your man got one hell of a hiding, how the ref let him continue I'll never know. If that wasnt bad enough, the corner let him go back out FFS. At least I won a tenner from the poor bloke getting his head kicked in though. It could be worse. (Hes alright by the way!)

First half serious day back betting and it feels fantastic. I'll tell ya something though, I'm a serious fooking eejit, I spent the last three and a half days doing an assignment, then when finished, realised it was a group assignment and I would of only had to do 1/3rd of it and could of got a nerd to help too, all I had to do was read the first page, it was a heading and all, in bold "group assignment." I wouldnt mind, it was one of those were, youre not really serious about it, but you just think to yourself ah here fook this I'm jumping of a bridge. Head in hands man, if I'd a brain I'd be dangerous.

Anyway, did the England v Pakistan game today, sort of a perfect game for my style, low odds to chase par(ish) so no bet, early wickets for higher odds, then they look for singles and to build partnerships so I'm in the market and ticking it down as they go along, you have to trust the batsmen though, KP and Morgs, so no issues of trust there whatsoever. In my last post I said how I didnt know whether to go awe-green or let it run (without liability), I let it run the last time and finished with nothing, so was sort of kicking myself. Today I went awe-green, and it was a 1.01 train from the time I was on, so I was kicking myself again because after, I wanted to have rode it out. My thoughts are that, I cant win with the thinking behind it you know, I want to be perfect yet theres no such thing as perfection, no matter what I do after the game I'll think "well, I could of done this, this and this." I'm just gonna focus on getting rid of liabilities and then decide on letting green run on one side or go level, depending on the game, and if its wrong, its wrong, what can I do. Hopefully I'll be worrying about going awe-green as opposed to worrying about going awe-red!

Sky was about near 30secs behind. It was pap. Odds moved in.. "wicket?" odds move back to where they started.. "dropped!" bowler runs in, ball skied, ball dropped! It was impossible to trade it out and out because of the movements, wickets went 5 ticks, then it happened on Sky and it went another 10 ticks or so. Its scary given the IPL hasnt agreed a deal on the UK TV rights yet. In another words - were fooked, one ball behind through Sky, whats it gonna be behind on Youtube?!

Messed around a tiny bit on the darts last night, nothing major, and same on the horses. Screen shot from Monday sorts it all out. Have 10 days to do nothing but gamble now, I'm absolutely delighted and cant wait, havent had that since I was snowed in. Its no craic in the real world.

And the Tiger Woods interview - theres 20 minutes of my life I'll never get back. I was expecting something interesting, or at least when hes coming back. Instead, we get a load of shite we already knew really. And it looked a bit made up. He must be going through a lot though so good luck to him, the medias a bit of a hoor really, I mean who really cares what he does in his spare time. If Chelsea were 2/1 to beat Sunderland at home tomorrow, you wouldnt sit there and think "jaysus, I cant back them, JT and Cashley cheated on the wife didnt they."

Let them do what they like sure, its not as important as say, who killed Archie Mitchell is it, Ems backed Grant at 20/1 and he was only 10/1 before the show, I had to sit her down tonight and explain you cant eat value, that shes a mug, and that I am the daddy for gambling.. I'm sleeping on the couch tonight. Its not a bad thing though, while in New York, I got a wonderful education in how to "dress" the bed. Now I have 6 pillows and some throw over thing on the bed, all of which I have to remove before I get into it, missing valuable lying down time. Where did it all go wrong..

Running It Or Greening It?

Yet again this question pops up in my head after this morning, for the one millionth time!

Hadnt planned on trading this morning, but couldnt help watching the end of India v Saffers, 9 wickets down, 15 overs left, what test cricket is all about.

Surprised India were so short given Morkel had already seen off near 30 odds balls when I turned on the TV, easy trade when youve got the balls (one wicket is game over like), wasnt worried by the bowling in the slightest, then BAM, wicket goes, kaput.

So, I end with a 27c loss, instead of maybe a €50 each side win, but I was backing myself to be right (if I was nervous I would have greened), again - do you green without questioning or do you back yourself and let it run.

I give this loads of thought on a weekly basis, I still dont know which is right and which is wrong you know. You green, they draw, youre saying why didnt I let it run. You let it run, it loses, youre thinking why didnt I green.

I suppose the most important bit is getting rid of the liability and then worry about everything else later..

In McCoys Corner..

Look what happens FFS, I go away for a few days and the whole place is in utter chaos..!

Denman falling. I'm only guessing from what I've read that there was a huge meltdown on the Betfair forum. The RP have blogged about it giving them stick and one newspaper went as far as to call the Betfair community "a vat of bile bubbling away" today. Er, you know, its very harsh on some, but then its fair enough on others I suppose (the name callers etc).

Anyway, a couple of points on Denman..
1) Hes not a stranger to a couple of slaps down the neck going down the back straight, its happened before, it'll happen again. In all likelihood he would have ground out an unimpressive workmanlike win. Hes not a Dunguib, he doesnt do things slick. But sure youre guessing either way.
2) He finds a huge amount for pressure and responds until he has nothing left, I suppose thats one of the reasons hes had heart problems. You cant say he was beaten 100%. It was hugely disappointing that Niche Market was so close at the time of the mistake I know, and in fact making a little ground. Again youre just guessing, my honest answer is I dont know with leaning to a ground out win for the tank.
3) Hes fallen before. Aintree. In fact, it was the exact same guessy fall, takes off a mile too early, goes through the fence. No chance of staying up.

What did McCoy do wrong like?

If you watch every race for a whole week, you soon lose count of the amount of horses that put in a short stride when asked for a long one, that get booted into a fence but come up too soon. The jockey is there to organise them, to guide them, to direct them, but its up to the horse to get from A to B isnt it. Why didnt Carberry get Harchibald to find for pressure if it was just up to the jockey? Zaarito has fell with four (yes 4!) different jockeys on board, mainly due to the fact I think he trys to injure them and they cant ride the next time he runs! Its hard to blame a jock for a horse falling.

I'd also like to say that people forget the dangers jockeys put themselves through, this morning we lost an absolutely super bloke called Ronan Lawlor, he worked for Pat Fahy and David Wachman. The horse bolted with Ronan on, threw him off the side and he hit a timber stake after falling off. Everyone is gutted you know, he was a lovely bloke, rode winners. Jockeys weigh 7/8/9 stone depending, horses weigh a tonne, yet people expect the jockey to do everything, it doesnt work like that, you need the horse to do the work.

But people lose their money, you have to blame someone, youre horse lost, blame someone. And thats what happens. This gets highlighted because its big names in Denman and McCoy. The press reaction is a bit strong handed and theres still plenty of seethe on the forum over it, but you know on there every race is a fix, every jockey is cheating, every loss is the jockeys fault, every trainer is putting you away, every trainer is lying, every TV presenter is a muppet, every tipster is a loser and useless and everyone with an opinion that differs from yours is wrong. There the forum rules arent they.

The problem lies where, when someone does actually try to be nice, have an opinion, a view, whatever, he gets shot down. He gets called a muppet, a mug, they even go as far as call him a cunt. Having actually made the effort and getting a roasting, he doesnt go back, or he goes to their level. And it goes round and round in circles. Everyone moans of "non-triers," but the triers on the forum are hunted until killed. As I said to someone, if you put up the cure for cancer, someone will still shoot you down. Its a fact.

It wont change though, ever, because were all different, we all see different things, fancy different horses, do different bets, if we all agreed, everything would be 1.01 and no one would get matched. Having said that, if everyone was stood face to face there'd be no rowing either, people hide behind anonymity.

I cant see what McCoy did wrong. But the forum needs someone to blame because the horse lost, so McCoy cops it. If it was Ruby, he'd cop it. When Sam Thomas was unshipped in the exact same fashion in Aintree, he copped it. And when the flats back, Johnny Murtagh, 'Frank' Spencer and KF will cop it for something different every day. Thats just the way it is.

Why does everyone row though?

"I have often wondered how it is that every man loves himself more than all the rest of men, but yet sets less value on his own opinions of himself than on the opinions of others."

It shouldnt matter what anyone else thinks of you, it does not make you right backing a horse though, sure were all wrong no ones perfect, but you have your bet, you back yourself, and who gives a flying fook what anyone says, its your money. And likewise when someone disagrees and backs a different horse, thats equally his choice, and his money. And its all a birra craic sure..

As for my money.. have two assignments due on Friday and a presentation (bugger!) also on Friday, so no betting until Saturday, then have a total week for gambling though, will sort everything out with a week screen shot Saturday or Sunday sure.

Also, completely off topic but, someone post the head in hands man for Ashley Cole!

Premature Eclickalation

Feck me they really have it on the darts dont they! The market moves quicker than a Dublin fan leaving at half time in Croker, only when they play a team out of Leinster now (wink, wink). Anyway, having looked forward to it all day, it wasnt boring, but it wasnt interesting either..

Baxter v Jenkins - Draw. Had zero on the draw. Pants.

King v Lewis - Laid King at 3.3 for €25, then switched and laid Lewis at the break feeling that King would come out running, hes a fantastic front runner when he goes get going on a run, got away with a small win.

Barneveld v Wade - Jaysus they were brutal! Even the crowd started the Mexican wave, shag all else to do, Barney never hit a 180 or 140 for the first four legs yet found himself at 3-3 at the break. How? I've no idea. Had laid Wade, seen Barney, think balls, laid Wade at 2.2 went awe-red at 1.95, laid Barney at 3.6 went awe-red at 3.1, went to make a cup of tea and stand in the kitchen, peering in to see when it was over. I'm afraid of computers when the screen is red.

Whitlock v Taylor - Still to go, Taylor has man flu, but Whitty first time in front of such a crowd on PL debut, hard one to call, I'd lay Taylor with the man flu thing but you know I dont want to back against the daddy of darts.

Darts: -€11.90 Total P&L: -€11.90

Couple of points..
- The delay on Sky is massive. You know theyve hit or missed by the market before they throw. Nigh on happens in every sport I know but its just less than helpful isnt it. Especially in markets when theres little liquidity and such big gaps in the prices.
- The crowd was the most quiet I've heard at a PL, they said 10,000 were there.
- The brunette walkon girl has great jabs. Fantastic.
- Having used Gruss down in the IFSC, home is slow compared and for a sport that moves so quickly, its hard enough, I'm not a fan of the short format when theres not as much time for thought in the market.
- The short games dont exactly suit me you know, no real flow, no momentum, quick changes, quick moves. For someone who likes to run positions and gambles more so than trades, that doesnt help when things go tits up after going somewhat right. Be good if you were an out and out trader calling it right though.

Spent all week looking forward to its return, and its a good birra craic, but for gambling, I wont be going out of my way to stay in on Thursday nights. And wont go over €125 liability.

Anyway, I'm off for a few days tomorrow so no gambling. I want to gamble (obviously!) but its Valentines and you know if I did have a bet, it would probably be the last one I'll ever have. She might be small but even after five years she still scares the bollocks out of me when shes angry. Ah no, Betfair is banned apparently where were going. Back midweek. First winning week for five weeks by the way, BOOM! Everything in running, not much on, but I tried. Even though €40 is tiny compared to other people, I'm delighted you know, first winning week for a while, just to end the run more than anything. Won 20 odd quid on the Australian wallet there Tuesday too.

I cant remember the last time I had over €200 on something, its one of those periods in the year when I've no strong opinion on anything, meetings called off, cricket Australian hours, darts too fast, dont bet on footie or golf, not a big tennis fan. No point setting a daily target (I never have one by the way) when I cant reach it with whats on, people say making 1% a day is easy.. not when you dont wanna bet on Afghanistan v Kazakhstan U19s! Having said that, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are normally the main days of the week I suppose. I wonder if you took out the weekends, how big of a difference would it make to your betting? Ah fook it, I'm just delighted not to be losing!

Skys new darts tune below, song for the gym..

Me In Running..

Stephen Maher - § (Timeform squiggle) - Broke well, held up in touch, not fluent at times, mistake 7 out, €50 down 5 out, closed on outer entering straight, effort to lead approaching final furlong, pushed along and soon quickened clear, not extended, impressive.

May have got a bit over excited there with the impressive bit but anyway..












Day centered around three horses..

1) Whatuthink - ran no sort of race for me, never even traded in running, jumped poorly, last time I back him. Winner was impressive enough but would like to see him again.

2) Saddlers Storm - was given a superb ride by Rubs, was on at SP but also in running, had the second down as a short trader so always wanted to take him on with something. Traded under 1.4 four out of its last seven races, won two in between too. It wasnt that I was absolutely dead set on laying it, just if I had something strong running for me, its alright saying well lay short traders, but sometimes the race just presents itself to them, even Mick The Man won a race there last week sure. Takes a brave man to take on Rubs in full flight though, cracking ride, Tony Martin horses always seem to pick up when asked.. (being 30L behind when asked to do so is another matter altogether!) Small bit annoyed I had to lay off for the stewards, I had backed it in the shops too so liability was a bit high for trusting three blokes in a box, I know I didnt "have" to, but you know, no one goes skint going awe-green.

3) Shuil Dearg - pulled the arms out of Derek O'Connor, was pretty keen on him pre-off, it was only when he let the horse fly off in front that I switched to being against him, still finished 3rd and was involved at the death, will be ten times better once the horse learns how to settle I reckon. You'll never win pulling like that though.

Rest was bits and pieces in running filling in the time, dropped a clanger at Southwell laying a front runner, never saw another horse. That bend at Southwell is a fooker too because they kick off it and the market moves away from you so quickly. Apart from that was alright, Geraghtys last winner at Ludlow was impressive I thought, jumped awful at the start but still won well, doesnt look like one you'd want to lay at high prices in the future. And Bob Hall picked up really well to win today too, Foxhunters at Cheltenham a race for him maybe?

If I was to bet on the football, I'd think Arsenal are an awfully low price tonight, I know Liverpool are well, er, Liverpool, but Rafas unbeaten in the last seven, Arsenal are coming off tonkings against United and Chelsea, evens is short enough. No doubt they'll win 3-0 though, thats why I dont bet on football anymore.

Head in hands man Rafa..

09/02/2010

Todays gambling tip - Dont celebrate too early. Example - Jeff Stelling..



HA! Unlucky Jeff.

Anyway, er, today was a bit of a waste of a day really, spent most of it looking at a screen like this..













That was AFTER the 'upgrade.' Should of went to the driving range for the day and forgot about it really but I did the horses in running, only small, was a boring day really, nothing happening, would drive you to drink.. which is why I'm finishing early to do exactly that for the footie this evening.

Horse Racing: €12.15 Total P&L: €12.15

Site was down completely from 3-00AM until 11-00AM (I think). I'm 99% sure Australia will win every game against the West Indies, so had a small bet on them before going to bed, couldnt trade obviously because no market, as I said I'm pretty confident they'll win, and its easier to back them when you dont have to worry about which way the odds go to make you nervy on the button. Its like when they played England, SP was 1.55ish range every game, traded odds against every game, won every game (bar the last one when they couldnt give a monkeys and rested players). Next game is Friday but I'm away for Valentines.. dont ask.

Premier League darts is back Thursday night though.. BOOOMM!

Leopardstown..

Zaarito, why does he do it to me! I just saw he went down to only 1.52 in running but he was cruising going to the last, "would have" won in my opinion, but sure jumpings the game. Its awful though, I dont want to give up on the hoor, but he cant jump, like if he was your wife and you were only getting two rides a year, you wouldnt be happy.

Dunguib was impressive again, being picky he didnt jump very slick and made a few mistakes, would want to cut that out for Cheltenham but still cant see a novice to beat him. Machine. I wouldnt be dead keen on him being held up at Cheltenham making a few sticky mistakes like he did though, but if he jumps better sure his cruising speed is unreal. I suppose people will question what has he beat, then again what has he got to beat in Cheltenham, not that many good novices around this year for some reason, that I can see anyway.

Didnt have an online bet today, so just the week to tie up, "one step forward, one step back" would sum it up to perfection. Finding it very difficult to make money at the moment, but not losing (a lot) so I'll keep going, just a little poor patch. I dont really mind being level you know, no harm done. Obviously everyone wants to win but I cant win all the time anyway, whatever about everyone else.

Onwards and upwards to next week..

06/02/2010

England v Wales, theres two hours of my life I'll never get back. Brutal! Ireland v Italy wasnt much better mind. And a loss on both to boot. Thought Ireland -32.5pts was a fair enough bet at odds against at half time given the start, thought they'd kick on in the second half, they went into reverse. Then England v Wales - England are shite..! But Wales were worse (I think), so many knock ons, schoolboy stuff. Problem was the market was so bias in favour of England I laid them at nearly every moment down from 1.4 to 1.1, the 1.1 with 20 minutes to go, Wales with the ball and having scored the last try, that price was insane. But Wales couldnt make anything of it sure, scored a try but then let England straight back in. A big enough loss from what was a small enough bet at the start. I hate those type of markets were you always think the odds are low, fighting against the market vibe, theres never gonna be trading because I'll always feel the market was low, its either jackpot in the last ten minutes or its kaput.

Everything I do on the horses is summed up by "one step forward, one step back." Again, win a tenner, lose a tenner, win a fiver, lose a fiver, etc etc etc.. off away from the computer to Leopardstown tomorrow so hopefully it'll turn around. The good thing is I'm not losing, it does get a little frustrating not making any ground after a longish spell though. Have to keep pinching myself to remind me it could be worse than level.

Have felt a little unlucky the last two weeks but got a massive break last night on the boxing, laid Booth at all odds from 1.3 going to 1.7, then backed him at all odds from 4 going down to 2.5 when things looked to be changing, he went down to as low as 1.38 before the fight was stopped because of a cut to the other bloke. It was only after everyone found out the judges had Booth 3 and 2 rounds behind, so he couldnt of possibly won! Er, I'm not inclined to think I was just wrong, sure the whole market was moving with me, we cant all be wrong like. Those judges on a Friday night are consistently miles off with the market though, only thing is you cant change the way you see the fight, nigh on every week the markets at 1.2 one fighter and the judges call the other bloke the winner by 5 rounds or something, we cant all be that wrong! Then of course there is the draw.. lets not go there.

Boxing: €68.68 | Horse Racing: -€4.64 | Rugby Union: -€140.63 Total P&L: -€76.59

So, a loss for the last two days, back to -€30 for the week, deja vu with last week FFS, just cant get going lately but I accept it you know I wont push things, probably wont have an online bet tomorrow. Fancy Cross Appeal in Leopardstown, I know the stable like him, he went off at a mental pace the last day, him and Andy Macs horse really cut each others throats, might upset the favourite in the first tomorrow for me. Obviously Dunguib is the main reason for going, its a poor enough Gold Cup by recent standards, if I have a bet in it it'll only be 10, 20 quid at the most, Money Trix or Joncol.

The novice chase looks good, keen enough to take on Weapons Amnesty over this trip, although the ground will make it a test as favourite I'll take him on with something, Cousin Vinny didnt jump at all well the last day, that leaves Roberto Goldback and Zaarito. I think Zaarito is a serious horse, only problem is hes probably odds against to jump around. I'd love to see him complete tomorrow just to see how good he actually is, he has form with Captain Cee Bee and breezed a race here over Christmas, couldnt back him with confidence though because of his jumping. Nice to see two oul fellas Afistfullofdollars (remember him!) and Agus A Vic in the chase at 4-20 too, hopefully one of them wins.

A Day In The Real World..

I feel as if I havent given any insight whatsoever into a gamblers mind this week so here we go, a day dairy of my inner most thoughts..

6-00AM - Oh my days its dark in the morning! Won €40 yesterday, already regretting going back to human existence of college away from my blog. Four missed calls from blog fans and six texts sending their love and wishing me luck. Must chase up the restraining order with my solicitor.

7-30AM – Holy shit, the luas station is mobbed, was there an Australian match overnight or something that everyones up this early? Luckily I should only be in transport with the mugs for a few weeks. Once they realise I am a blogger, a chauffeur driven limo will be forthcoming. Managed to get a seat by pure luck. A pensioner dropped her specs and I managed to dive in there when she went to pick them up. She mumbles something before retreating to the standing masses. I can only laugh, she obviously doesnt know who I am, Gambler Falls love, Gambler Falls, Google me.

9-00AM – I Introduce myself to my new college allies as "The Daddy," I get some very strange looks. After a few minutes, the penny soon drops that I must go back to using my pre blogging name "Stephen." Fook sake, I havent had to respond to that for nearly a year now, this isnt gonna be easy.

10-00AM - On a break in between classes I see a homeless man sitting in the street, clearly must of done his brains on Federer v Murray, I point, laugh and call him a MUG. He yells obscenities at me but I come back with saying hes "SEETHING." That showed him.

11-00AM - A bunch of flowers arrives to my class with the following message: "Stephen, I love you. Missing you already on blogspot. Hope your day is OK. Yours forever Rob The Builder xxx." Give them to the best looking bird in the room, may take her home tonight if I’m not too tired, if JT and Tiger can..

12-00PM - Feck this college business, I’m off. Should be home for the first in Clonmel.

2-00PM - Click a few buttons, I'm a gambling genius afterall like.

Horse Racing: -€4.01 Total P&L: -€4.01

7-00PM - Do the head in hands man.

Repeat tomorrow..

03/02/2010

So far this week..
Horse Racing: €44.10 Total P&L: €44.10

Not losing..! Whos the daddy, boom!

Nice to get a couple of days without doing much wrong, just aiming for a steady few days in a row you know, nothing major. Have assignments in college up to the 19th so dont have as much time as I'd like.

Although havent been taking too many chances, walking through Dublin Monday morning I had a gypsy boy try to steal my breakfast roll, I pulled it back away from him, gave him my best Roy Keane seethe eyes look, then he muttered something loudly in Romanian and ran off, I stood there thinking well, I'm cursed for life now, I'll never back a winner. Maybe hes turned things around though, I couldnt even get Phil Taylor to win last week.

No idea why, but the mood struck me to move back to the place market yesterday. Was pleasantly surprised, theres a bit more money in the market since the last time I was there. I prefer it to the win market, more time, lower odds, sometimes have a better read of it. Gets annoying not getting matched at times but there was three columns of money on most horses off ATR today. Cant really ask for more.

Huge moves in the antepost market overnight, I know youre thinking Jan Vermeer but alas no, no story there sorry to break it to you Mr Power, I'm thinking John Terry to be Engerland captain. Allegedly cabbage man Capello sent the following message out to the Engerlish squad.. "JT has lost the Engerland armband.. Wayne Bridge, would you mind looking under your bed?" OI OI!

A spokesman for Paddy Power said on Tuesday evening: "We have laid good money on Jan Vermeer in the Derby. In fact he has been the subject of a number of bets in the last week. The max on my account is €68, I'm sure theyve laid millions. Any chance of knocking out Nic a point or two? I take it thats a no then.