Bit of news.. Mr Fallon shall be returning to a Coolmore saddle on Saturday! He takes the ride on Viscount, he had nothing else lined up and you know even though hes 100/1, the horse is no mug. I still have my tenner on him at 100s anyway from here, didnt think KF would end up on him but absolutely delighted obviously. Colm rides Fencing who would have a good E/W chance and obviously Johnny on St Nic.
All fit enough to win IMO, no real worries about the trip/ground/opposition for St Nic, just the small doubt is, its his first run of the season, you know yourself what its like. We'll see, I'll be happy for him to run a good race anyway regardless of where he finishes I still think he'll win the Derby, the funny thing about the situation now is if he wins he'll be branded a "superstar" and if he loses he'll be branded as "finnish." If he finishes second of third he'll probably be called a non trier too! I'll miss the forum meltdown on Saturday anyway, gutted. I think he'll win for what its worth, only Elusive Pimpernel to beat really, but not lumping on because I dont normally back first time out so you know, if it aint broke dont fix it. Hopefully he runs a nice race anyway and sure what people say about him after is of little importance. Hes working nicely, he seems fit to win, everything is grand, we'll see what happens, its a personal thing that I hate backing them first time out so I'm probably a bit more cautious than usual.
Anyway, sticking to the new plan, just RUK in running, gave the jumps card at Wincanton a miss too so had the day to myself, did Nottingham tonight. Its weird having the whole day to yourself not bothering with certain meetings but its a nice feeling all the same, even attempted cooking dinner before she got home, it burnt, she laughed, we ordered pizza, best stick to the horses..
Horse Racing: €33.71 Total P&L: €33.71
By the way, the new Hunky Dory ads are a bit of alright arent they, just saying like..
Free €40, makes life fairly easy, what else would you be doing on a Monday afternoon.
Havent decided yet whos more stupid, William Hill laying 5/2 when they could lay lower on the exchanges if they really wanted to (I dont understand bookmaking like that but anyway, to get business maybe?) or the punters who want to back 3.1 on Betfair when they can get 3.5 without commission elsewhere, ever heard of oddschecker!
Totaled up the marks for my exam this morning in my head and came to the grand sum of 36, bugger, touch and go whether I pass, reckon its around a 11/8 shot. Marketing and Management are around 1/3 a pass, computers 1/1000, business finance 4/5 and information systems 33/1 (and you wouldnt even get a trade on that one!), if only someone would lay me now I'd probably study more, it matters more when theres money on it..
Just sort out the weeks screen shot, have my accounting exam tomorrow, want the computer and TV off before the IPL starts, Pro40 is in the 1.1s already before the second innings start so thats no good to me (Worcestershire still shite), the things I have to do to make myself study! I'm shocked at how little I care, it gets less an less each semester..
Anyway, been a good week, the idea of just focusing on certain stuff and leaving the rest is the way forward I reckon. What I'm most happy about, isnt the fact its been a good week this one, its that when things went tits up and somewhat wrong I've managed to keep level and relaxed about it, so that now things have went somewhat right its all profit and not just making up for donk losses during the bad times.
I've three exams next week I think so it'll be fairly blank on the gambling front.
Boxing: €21.35 | Horse Racing: €400.63 Total P&L: €421.98
Well.. I've had worse days. Thats the last two days actually, but I've had this uncanny luck/timing of being in the right place at the right time..
Ruby called Hangover as not travelling on the ground when held up at the back, seemly still on the bridle I was following him around purely because Ruby had highlighted him, he came into odds on in the place market turning in when placed in around 10th - 12th, the odds on lay I wouldnt normally get on ATR either. Same thing happened with Hold The Pin in that race too, cant speak highly enough of Rubs this week, hes been nothing short of fantastic, called Denman as beaten passing the stands first time and called Twist Magic as not starting before they were even close to coming under orders.
Then I was following Dunguib around, christ he really pulled like a train, caught him for an odds on lay in the place market too. Er, you know, its hard to judge him because he was so free, I reckon I'll just forget about the run and come back to him next year and see, its very hard for a novice against the older horses too. I'm probably being harsh too when I say this but I'd put one of the top jocks on him now after Punchestown, I dont think the jockey did a single thing wrong at Cheltenham or Punchestown, but having said that, whens the last time you seen a horse pull himself from 4th last to 3rd place with Ruby/Paul/Davy/Barry. I cant remember it happening anyway, horses arent robots I know you cant switch them off but you know the top boys seem to do it better than the rest, maybe its time for a stronger jockey if hes going to pull like that. Its being harsh on O'Connell but sure it is what it is, only my opinion.
The race after I was following Dr Whizz around, only because I backed him E/W in the shops, near the back, he was jumping absolutely terrible, I'd wrote off my bet, yet he was still odds on in the place market too. I think I only got all these lays in because of RTE, not normally bets I get matched on ATR, 7sec late to see it too I suppose. Had word for Mullins in the last (like half the bleedin' country!) and he was so free with Paddy it was unreal, I remember the last time I got word like that was for Arvika Ligeonniere in Fairyhouse and he was beaten too but look how good hes turned out to be, probably one to keep an eye on that bumper horse, they dont get big reps down there for nothing and he pulled so hard he nigh on had no chance from the word go.
Then today theres been a fierce amount of stupid money knocking around in the place market, Sandown and Punchestown, horses in 7th/8th going backwards still freely available at 3ish/4ish to lay. Paul Nicholas had a horse called Martys Mission, he must of been in around no better than 8th at the time (4 to place) and someone wanted to back him at 1.2, Hardy Eustace got me a few quid too when I seen what the jockey was like!
All in all you know, just been in exactly the right place at the right time, normally I'd be watching the whole race almost looking for stuff to happen, just pure luck to be following a certain horse at a certain time. Plus the huge advantage of RTE pictures obviously, it does make a difference, going forward I've decided to give up ATR and focus on RUK, taking in ATR just purely for the Irish racing because I know horses so well from going racing you know, given up national hunt pre-off and English racing pre-off now, except when Ballydoyle horses run over there.
So far this has been my best week in ages and I've worked maybe a third of the hours I'd normally do, so maybe the 'less is more' approach in the way forward. Concentrate on Irish racing, RUK in running, boxing, cricket and GAA when it starts back, and forget the rest.
No craic at the cricket today though, Bangalore innings SP was 1.02! I've read all the storys about the match fixing and as always I'm skeptical about what the media says, but I dont think its fixed to be honest. Not sure if anyone remembers, its a couple of years ago now, but remember the ICL final? It was put into a best of three series, I cant exactly remember the teams, I think Lahore may have been one of them. Anyway, they won the first game to go 1-0 up, then funnily enough by pure coincidence they were posted the exact same total for the 2nd and 3rd game to chase. In the 2nd game (the match allegedly fixed), they were in the 1.8s to chase it, they lost. Then, in the 3rd game, the straight game, they were in the 1.2s to chase it (the proper price), they won. Watch this..!
That 1.8 game was the first "fixed" game I can remember being involved in betting, I remember it purely for all the fuss and bother of the price being so wrong. And as someone who bets on nigh on every IPL game, I cant remember a price being so far off that its fishy. Alright, its a bit off now and then, but nothing thats too mad. You know, we had a footie game from Italy and the 1-1 draw went off at evens, the Davydenko match when the odds went the wrong way to what was happening when Betfair voided. You can always nearly tell by the market when somethings up, and I cant remember an IPL market like that. I mean, theyre all mad, and shite, you know if were going to bring in every stupid shot or dropped catch sure we'd have thousands of players to question. I cant speak for Indian bookies but with 10 million going through Betfair every match you'd think it'd filter through somehow, it normally does when somethings up.
You have the blokes who set off the explosive in Bangalore last week and they had to move the finals, you had the terrorist threat last year and they had to move to Safferland, you have Modi whos brought huge sums of money into the game and India being center stage, youre bound to have a few haters and seethers. You have the age old saying of 'theres no smoke without fire' alright but, I think the "its a fix" angle is way overused in sport today, you know go onto the Betfair forum after every race and "its a fix, he wasnt trying." Go onto the football forum, United or Liverpool given a stone wall penalty and "its a fix, the refs want them to win." Phil Taylor loses a match and he isnt trying. Federer loses a match and he isnt trying. Tiger loses and hes thinking about sex. The list goes on and on, its laughable at this stage, you laugh at punters who scream fix because its like the boy who cried wolf now.
Anyway, Pro40 back tomorrow, boom! The exam went well this morning too, getting up early on a Saturday is minus craic though, looking forward to settling down for the night, still five to go for the next two weeks. Few Ballydoyle horses running tomorrow, but I'm not backing any, nothing really to get jiggy about, although its poor enough racing they might have a chance, the 2yo's havent worked on grass yet so if they win they'd be pretty smart, I'd be surprised if anything won but sure we'll see. (Cue a treble, listen Rishi..)
Small losing day today but a winning day yesterday to help things along, have to say having Ruby Walsh commenting in running on RTE is fantastic you know, just great to get his opinion of how a race is going compared to your own, I tend not to really listen to the normal comms but obviously a man of esteem like Ruby you know, you'd listen to him. I havent been investing money on what hes saying but its nice to see his angle to things.
Was very lucky on the cricket yesterday, supported Uthappa as I've been doing throughout and he got the market from the 1.2s to the 1.8s, got rid of the red at the end of an a over and then next over two wickets in two balls has the market back to the 1.1s, jammy getting out, had €300+ of green on Bangalore I could do nothing with but sure no complaints, couple of seconds later and it was goodnight. Chennai v Deccan today, stayed away on purpose because theyve been (in my opinion) the two most untrustworthy sides batting, I think Deccan were in the 1.3s range to chase 140ish, gubbed, that was after Chennai made a balls of their innings, a match of who could fook up the least! Bollinger has done wonders since hes arrived though, really changed Chennais bowling, I'd almost go as far to say that they wouldnt have even got into the semis if he wasnt there.
Delighted with Nobel Princes run today, hes one of my favourites, but he did look a bridle merchant, I reckon he is one now (Harchibald colours too!), had my doubts but today confirmed. And tomorrow will be the first time this season I'm not backing Dunguib when he runs, you know I mean he couldnt win in novice company at Cheltenham and rocks up here against proven Grade 1 winners, I wouldnt be doing it if I owned him but sure I dont. You only have to look at Sizing Europe at the start of the week to see how hard it is for a novice taking on the older horses. We'll see anyway, because Hurricane Fly hasnt ran since last year, Punjabis been disappointing this season and Solwhit, well like, if Charles Byrnes told me today was Thursday I'd still want to check the feckin' calender.
Well, things were going well until Zaarito ran, god knows what Condon was doing, I'm not one for jockey bashing but jaysus it looked very strange. You know, if somethings amiss or he isnt happy with how hes travelling just pull up, but to just hunt around at the back not touching him looks awful for the sport. I'm not saying he was a non trier, I dont think he was, I just think it was mad what he done, never seen anything like it.
Apart from that was alright, only doing Punchestown in running and a small few pre-off bets, not bothering with the other meetings.
Now, I've no wish to take the piss, it must be terrible having it, but surely they must be the most honest people in the world.
The bald lad is the best, after two minutes.. "If he could meet someone who could look beyond the tourettes, he could find someone to get on with and settle down with" .. pause .. "Another gay man!"
Cricket: -€21.86 | Horse Racing: -€26.69 Total P&L: -€48.55
Been struggling on the horses last two days, same as its been all week really, fiddling around with Gruss custom columns but at the same time doing some awful stupid stuff. No excuses, just me being a bellend basically.
Todays win on the cricket is below but yesterday I was hung, drawn and quartered on a "trade" that became a straight bet. I laid 1.2 as a "trade," then two wickets go fairly close together and my "trade" becomes a "bet" because the market goes to 1.03, trading is betting I suppose at the end of the day, still pretty annoyed to be caught like that with something I didnt want to end up with. I had planned to lay after wickets fell waiting for KP, Uthappa and Taylor to bat because I didnt want to support the openers, so I was laying into a mini crisis for the team alright, just have to take it on the chin but I didnt want to be left in that spot you know, it was poor enough.
Been a frustrating week because I've had a couple of near misses and a few 50/50 things I wasnt on the right side of. Boxing and cricket finish just above level because of that, but the horses were the real kick in the stones, I've been awful, no point calling it anything else, nothing else to it.
I have exams on and off for the next three weeks - finishing May 14th (FFS how long like), so I'll fiddle around with Gruss again in three weeks, I was thinking about packing in the "lesser" meetings during the week and just focusing on the meetings that interest me so I'm more on the ball with opinions, you know who wins at Exeter on a Wednesday afternoon is absolutely of no interest to me, but yet I bet in running on it. I was also looking at the Irish only angle too and just forgetting about English racing. I'll come back to it after the exams anyway.
I'll put up the weeks screen shot every Sunday still but bare with me for the next three weeks because it'll be fairly boring, I havent started studying yet so I wont have the time for betting or blogging like I normally do. I'm also well aware I'm a 'thinker' and when I dont give my gambling enough thought I'm terrible, not betting is probably the way to go but theres so much stuff on.. Punchestown, Mayweather fight, Guineas, they couldnt have picked a worse time FFS! I'm taking next year off though after two degrees so I suppose just get it out of the way and be done with it, I'll be happy when its finnish.
And I thought At First Sight, a horse I've banged on about in the past, ran a cracker today finishing second, was only beaten a head too, he had a few setbacks there at the end of last year thats why he never ran after winning but he stayed on really well today when he would of needed the run. I havent lumped on anything today either but Johnnys riding has left a lot to be desired at times, and thats putting it nicely.
What a hero. Those two sixes at the end were unreal!
Anyway, I've touched on IPL3 being much much harder this year than the past two years, I'm almost 100% certain when Punjab were 1.65 today, they would have been 1.3 - 1.4 the past two years. Before you could get a decent price for 'amazing scenes' and now its sort of expected nearly.
And also Lumpy has cottoned on to that fact too, he had two huge market blockers in place during todays game (screen shots, 200k at 1.42 and 200k at 1.35). Basically theres a hugely slim chance all of his money his matched before he can cancel because its so big. And also people panic and jump in front of him. That being case he can basically put the market wherever he wants given certain events, obviously he cant do terribly stupid things but he can make a 1.4 shot 1.6, a 1.2 shot 1.4 and vice versa, it throws you because you think 'well, thats not the right price' but then he holds it so you dont get a trade (when you should of), then a wicket goes and youre red. Its annoying at times.
Hes a clever enough fooker too, hes rarely wrong. When he is wrong though obviously its fantastic for everyone. Doesnt happen often though.
Another thing I find weird sometimes is the markets view on the rate, I'm of the opinion that it doesnt matter how high the rate is ONCE they are meeting it. Today, rate was over 10, yet they were banging in overs between 11 and 14 from 17 left (3rd over) through 12 before losing a wicket. Market is so low to react to it and then when it does it goes sharply from 1.6 one side to 1.8ish other side in a few balls. Suppose it does sometimes be waiting for a wicket, I dont know, its an odd one.
Glad to pick up the €65 anyway because I lost €80 yesterday.
I've lost count of the amount of mug things I've done today, but yet I've won. Theres days I do everything perfect yet lose, no sense to it this gambling lark. Some serious mug moves on the cricket, was a little unlucky with a LBW, clearly wasnt out, I dont mind so much when its close but the ball was actually going down already when it hit him, how the fook is that going on when its outside the line of the stumps already! I took on the bowler, that was in the middle of a 14 run over, seething would be an understatement. Had to dump 2/3s of my position but still ended up with a book like this..
Now, things I know.. 1) Deccan have been gubbed at 1.05 already this IPL. 2) Deccan failed to get 4 off 5 in a different match to the 1.05 gubbing. 3) Deccan are the collapse kings of IPL.
Its IPL, why didnt I go awe-green in the 1.1s? Greed. No other reason for it, mentally saying the games over too was a mistake, then of course things went tits up and I end up with a book like this..
Alright, its still being awe-green, a win and money. But, I could of been €55 green ten minutes before and didnt, was greedy, wanted more, and end up getting less. The annoying thing is, I know all this stuff already but yet I do it again. Havent traded the IPL for a few days, a sharp little reminder not to be so complacent and too sure of things. They cant be trusted like an international team.
Played in running on the horses like a total mug too, nothing else to it, was lucky to escape with just an €8 loss. Boxing was good as there was a few hours in between, that 1.3 at the end of the first fight was criminal, ended up winning though so lost green there. Second fight was much better though so no real loss.
Anyway, everyone feels like theyve done mug stuff at certain times, but at least youre not like this bloke..
I love how he stands there a bit sheepish after he says thinking 'what do I do now' so he says it again. Brilliant.
Frustrating enough last two days, the cricket innings SPs have been 1.12 and 1.03, nothing doing there like. Although I did manage to nick €8 off one, boom! Laid 1.12 and backed back at 1.2, was absolutely kicking myself I didnt do the same today.. it went from 1.03 to 1.5, they lost three wickets in the first two overs and then another two shortly after. You know, er, IPL, backing 1.02/1.03, it won in the end, but is it really worth the hassle and the stress? Plus the high chance of redding out when things go like today.
The horses have been the frustrating part. I spent most of yesterday going through results and making custom columns trying to pick which would work best, what price, what amount, back or lay, 'fill or kill' or leave it. I think I have it sorted (sort of), it needs more work. The annoying thing was I've been right more times than I've been wrong but I'm not making the times I'm right pay enough and then getting clobbered the times I'm wrong. Thats just in general, I did lose €75 on one race so I suppose take that out and the rest were OK(ish).
That one race was Emperor Hadrian at Tipperary, I had planned to back, I knew he wanted further so when I saw Johnny bounce out nicely and make the running I backed 2.7, he had the other joint favourite beaten, but when Stacks came to challenge, his head went up awfully and he was having none of it. He actually stopped rather than kept going at the one pace! I'll keep my mouth shut about 'never winning a race' this time (watch it and you'll see what I'm on about), but be interesting what price he goes off at next time out, I'd lay him. Wasnt expecting it at all from him, and its one of the worse I've seen from a Ballydoyle horse, had a few ungenuine ones alright, but he was a real obvious one to everyone today.
Dunno who was backing Full Of Hope at 1/3, looked a certainty on paper though. But ever get that sixth sense saying not to back something? No logic to it at all, just a little voice or feeling in your head saying dont do it, I had that with her this morning at 4/6. Wasnt overly impressed with her either, can only beat whats in front of you I know but theres a way of doing it like, she didnt really win like a 1/3 shot should, but they all count when youve backed them. I'll stick to the plan of not backing in Dundalk this season too.
Happy to see Coordinated Cut (10th of 11) winning yesterday. Elusive Pimpernel (2nd) winning the Craven, Dancing David (4th) finishing second to him. Jaysus, can you picture how good that winner of the RP Trophy is..
Hopefully tomorrow is a bit better anyway, but only minus €38 on the week so far, bit more work to do on Gruss before it starts clicking I think, theres not much other sport on either so I wont go looking for something that isnt there you know.
This ash cloud grounding flights has brought out all the doomsday people again FFS, apparently the world in ending in December 2012, so my advice would be to hold off booking your tickets for Leopardstown at Christmas, pay at the gate.. (What a load of tosh!)
Speaking of that, I was absolutely delighted to read this on irishracing the other day: Irish racing's latest experiment with reduced entry prices proved a big success at Limerick today, where an estimated 4,200 people attended the Students' Raceday. The decision to reduce entry costs to just €5 per person, combined with a complimentary 'road-map' styled race-card (of light paper), helped draw a large crowd, with racecourse manager Russell Ferris stating “I am delighted with today's crowd which we currently estimate to be 4,200 prople.”
I've been waffling on for months now that its the prices in that has attendances down, not bookmaker prices or racing quality. Leopardstown will have €15/€20 in for their evening meetings soon and the place will be like a ghost town, there'll be an echo talking to each other. Fairyhouses figures were down all three days for the national meeting and at €40 in for Punchestown each day its pretty much odds on they'll be down too. Limerick deserve every bit of success they get.
You know, in the gambling sense of it, would you rather win €5 a hundred times or €450 once off. People always turn up to stuff if the price is right. No good having family race days etc when its €20 in for an adult and €10 in for a child, family of five paying €70 just to get in, they havent done anything yet like have a bet/drink/food. They'll be put off going when the park/beach for the day is free, and if they do go they wont come back as its too expensive.
If I was in charge of Betdaq I'd go 1% commission on all World Cup markets this summer (I say that as someone who doesnt bet on football too), and they'd get plenty over from Betfair with that offer. Whats better like, 5% of a million or 1% of 8 million. There'll be 20 odd million on every game on Betfair, its worth a shot, 5% commission plus chance of 20% premium charge against 1% commission, punters always bang on about value. The football mobs money will spill over into other markets too, Betfair has an awful relationship with its customers, it wouldnt be hard if they advertise it. I want that idea copyrighted if they do it by the way! Lower prices doesnt always mean less money. At least try, the worse that can happen is it doesnt work, not the end of the world (until 2012 anyway).
Back to struggling in running midweek! Hopefully Newmarket will bring a bit of spark tomorrow, was well off the pace today, even though both my losers finished 3rd which is sort of unlucky but still its 3 places so not really unlucky but bad calling. I'd rather them win or finish second though, the way it is too I probably did well to finish level, normally these days its call one race wrong and its goodnight. Horse Racing: -€1.61 Total P&L: -€1.61
Level day for the blog, but a real kick in the stones elsewhere with Rocky Elsom getting beaten in Limerick. I've already labeled Encompassing a dog here ages ago, and so it looking a match on paper, I backed the other one. He had around 20L+ in hand on form lines through Bold Quest and Captainofthefleet too. Fantastic ride by Johnny though I thought, pretty much perfect. He even sweated up at the start, which confidently I would of said was a sure sign he was beaten.. then he won.
Unlucky start to the flat season though, Bold Quest 8/1 E/W Sunday done a short head for 3rd returning 9/4. And today getting 6/4 in a match only to finish second returning evens. I'm doing something right, just its not quite on the money.
Also just to say, the main reason I'm not backing for the blog when I do them is I'm having fierce trouble getting on with the accounts for here. The cricket goosed my Bet365 account, PP wont lay me more than a tonne or so, Go Native busted my Bluesq one, I've big antepost bets with Ladbrokes which have shortened so theyre a bit 50/50 depending where it is. I waited for PP to price up this morning, oddschecker says 6/4, get my keys, double check the price before I leave, (literally walk in and out of the room just to make sure), and its 11/10! VC went 6/4 too but the closest shop to me is around two hours away, William Hill laid me on the phone, fair played to them. Betfair is probably the worse of them though in the mornings.. there was €7 at 2.5 this morning, €7!
Was too busy to do the cricket today too. I've also a list of what AP, word for word himself, thinks of each horses target..
AGE OF AQUARIUS is well, he had a little hold up with a bruised foot but everything going well he might start back in the Boodles Ormonde Stakes at Chester.
ALFRED NOBEL will probably have his next run in the Weatherbys Greenlands stakes at the Curragh.
BEETHOVEN is working well, he will probably start in the stanjames.com 2000 guineas in Newmarket. He also holds an entry in the Kentucky Derby but is unlikely to travel there.
CAPE BLANCO is in good form, he is possible to start back in the totesport.com Dante Stakes at York.
FAME AND GLORY came out of his race well, he might go to the High Chaparral Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh next as the Prix Ganay might just come a little bit too soon for him.
FENCING MASTER is working nicely,we are looking at the stanjames.com 2000 guineas in Newmarket for him.
JAN VERMEER is well, he also had a little hold up but is back in work again now, he is a possible runner in either the French guineas or the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 guineas.
MIKHAIL GLINKA is in good form, he will probably have his first run in the P W McGrath Memorial Ballysax at Leopardstown.
RIP VAN WINKLE is well, he will either start in the Juddmonte Lockinge at Newbury or could go straight to the Prince of Wales Stakes or the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.
STARSPANGLEDBANNER did his first canter on the grass this morning and we were very happy with him. We are hoping to have him ready for a run in the Duke of York Blue Square Stakes at York.
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY is in good form, at the moment we are looking at the stanjames.com 2000 guineas.
STEINBECK is working really well, he will probably start off in the Abu Dhabi 2000 guineas at the Curragh.
VISCOUNT NELSON is also very well, he will possibly run next in the stanjames.com 2000 guineas in Newmarket.
CABARET is back cantering after a little break, she might start back in the Tattersalls Musidora stakes in York.
DEVOTED TO YOU is in good form and she will possibly run in the stanjames.com 1000 guineas in Newmarket.
FAMOUS is also well, she got a little bit tired at Leopardstown the last day but she could also run in the stanjames.com 1000 guineas at Newmarket.
LILLIE LANGTRY is well again after her injury in Santa Anita last year, she will hopefully be ready for the Etihad Airways 1000 guineas at the Curragh.
YOU'LL BE MINE is in good from, she is also possible to go to the stanjames.com 1000 guineas in Newmarket.
As they say on the Betfair forum.. hope this helps! I'm glad he likes Viscount Nelson at the moment though because I'm on him at 100s for the Guineas, also pretty interesting he says hes looking at the Guineas for St Nic too.
If I did learn one thing today its that I should really stop backing against them, can never get 'em right when I go against them, and it makes it ten times worse when they beat me then having backed the other. I'll get plenty of stick on Friday after saying Encompassing "will never win a race." I'm growing a beard to go unnoticed..
One of the main reasons I dont watch the news or read papers is because I like to live my own life, see things with my own eyes, not believe what people tell me (the press) and I dont give a monkeys what other people do in general you know, its their business, its nice to take the piss out of John Terry and stuff, but thats about it. Call me selfish, but myself and the people I know are number one, and nothing else matters. Jordan gets her baps out in a nightclub, I dont care - that sort of thing.
Unfortunately being a racing man I get suckered into reading the Racing Post and reading a few other things and notice all the nonsense over this 155% book.
Now, lets be realistic here for a minute and live in the real gambling world, not the made up one everyone has in their heads..
1) A bookmaker can price up whatever price they like - it is a free market. Like it or not, thats the way it is. Equally if they dont want to take a bet off you, they can say no. I agree - its fairly shite, but thats the rules. Take it or leave it.
2) It is down solely to the punter as to whether or not he/she places a bet with the bookmaker. Everyone bets to their own accord, it is never anyone elses fault, you hand the money over.
3) How many punters who would have placed a bet on the national have understood what an overround was? Very little. The once a year mob have trouble understanding the prices let alone an overround. They'll spend most of the day wondering is 7/4 bigger than 13/8, sounds stupid to people who gamble all the time, but thats one of the biggest problems to a novice in my experience.
4) I dont mean to offend anyone here - but people who bet at SP are dopes. Seriously, thats not taking gambling serious, thats not trying to win, thats not trying to find "value." How is it supposed to be "value" when you dont even know what price you'll get. The bookies have best price guaranteed these days, theres no reason to ever not take a price. And also, arent the people who bet at SP just purely doing it for that gambling rush, to back a winner, they dont care what price they get, they just want the rush, they dont care what overround it is (they probably dont even know either).
5) Coming back to the bookmakers being allowed to put whatever prices they like up, if someone puts up the wrong price on Betfair.. dont we all knock over the sandwich and spill the coffee trying to click the mouse fast enough to take it. We do, theres no doubt about it. So likewise, if bookmakers can take advantage of people who arent in the know, they will, and we'd all do it ourselves given the chance. People can take the moral high ground, but you know, the truth is we'd all click on Betfair.
6) Anyone with half a brain for punting would have wanted to take a price on the docket on Saturday morning, or they would have placed the bet on Betfair at 19 or whatever it was. Because in their mind, they are betting at what is a fair price to them. Gambling is fantastic like that - theres no ties to anything or anyone, you go to whoever has the best price. You go where it suits you, the bookmaker doesnt make you take the price, you take it because you want it.
7) The driving people away from the game issue, its arguable alright, but again coming back to the point about the once a year mob dont even know what an overround is, they would have never of even heard of it before they came to the track and after they leave. Its highly unlikely a person new to racing will leave remembering the overround, much higher on the list leaving the racecourse would be, the price in, the price of food/drink, did they back a winner, did they have a good time and was it good craic. Good craic tying in with the price of drink, I reckon, for most. Dont forget the once a year mob only bet in fivers also, most are there for the day out and to drink.
Most of those points are being incredibly harsh I know, but its the truth isnt it, everyone wants to fleece the unknowing, look at me, I'm honest enough to say I spent all day Saturday laying fallers in the national place market who people didnt know they had fallen because they werent watching the race closely enough. Thats their problem, not mine (being a tosser about it), but if you find a fiver on the street, you dont walk past it.
I take on board people think its a "disgrace" and "daylight robbery" betting to 155% BUT no one made them bet, no one made them hand their money over. They did it. And when someone bets, they should know what theyre doing. If you cant swim man, dont jump in the fooking river..
If racing wants to welcome new people into the sport, at least make more of an effort to educate them before throwing them into the lions den. Otherwise, its kill or be killed. You can call me a tosser, but everyone bets to their own accord, dont blame others if youve been shafted, because its 1.01 its youre own problem and not anyone elses.
Sun shining and flying up The Curragh on a Sunday afternoon, you'd think it couldnt get any better. Christ it was a long day.
I'm hugely aftertiming here but anyway a few reasons why the horses lost.. we had some nutter throw a stone at one of the horses in the car park as youre leaving there on the side of the walk up where the horseboxes park and we also had some drunken even bigger nutter abuse Johnny, called him every name under the sun, some of them I hadnt even heard before FFS!
You lose faith with punters though, like AP has said from the word go the horses will need the run, the horses will come on for the run, why cant people factor that into their betting you know? Or at least be a bit more philosophical when they lose? You know, I think I discovered today that you cant win, you tell 'em the truth and youre wrong youre slaughtered, you dont tell 'em anything for fear of being wrong and its why didnt you tell me.
Anyway, the first race was a complete shock. Even though I dont back the 2yo's first time out, I can honestly say that if I thought he was going to do that he wouldnt have gone off 9/1 on Betfair. I dont bet in hundreds of thousands like they do on the Betfair forum but he still wouldnt of gone off 9/1! He picked up really well though under hands and heels, was real impressive.
Alfred didnt run any sort of race, probably not a great fan of the ground, he got awful tired at the end I thought, he sort of made a little bit of ground and then just fell in a hole. No excuses there. Was giving them weight, he wasnt good enough.
Now, Fame And Glory, the one who caused all the trouble. Er, you know, he was just working with Dixie Music, who ran in the race as well, and beating him handy every morning, cruising past and looking a million dollars. I think they both sort of kidded us into thinking they were more forward than they actually were.. I'm not sure you know, only guessing. Surprised Fame got beaten to be honest, didnt see it coming, although wasnt a backer at odds on first time out but I still thought he'd win handy off his homework. In my opinion (and I've photographic evidence below! Fame in the red under Seamie and Dixie near side under Seany), I think the work between the two kidded us into thinking Fame was more fit than he actually was, and sure enough like, they finished exactly on the track as they do at home. Thats no good for people who backed him today though, I've no real words there you know, I was in the same boat, I thought he'd win just wasnt backing odds on.
Then in the last, I joined the fingers burnt seethers group with Bold Quest, the books priced him up at 8s this morning, unbelievable considering Joey rode him the last time and owned by Anne-Marie, of course Joey was going to ride him sure. They were more sort of equal rather than 1st string/2nd string. I got 8/1 E/W, 13/2 E/W, 6/1 E/W and 11/2 E/W. Sent him off 9/4, and he got absolutely chinned on the line for 3rd, and guess what, the stablemate we gave no chance to on the ground won. People are seething because they have to guess what were doing, were fooking guessing ourselves! That hurt anyway, the sick feeling in the stomach sort of bet. Same old story though, you can get whatever price you like, the horse still has to do the business at the end of the day.
But anyway, everyones entitled to a view, just wish they were a bit more understanding to what actually happens horses and jockeys in a race instead of just pure bashing them every time. It'll never change though really so I'm probably only annoying myself listening to them.
Hopefully Tiger can put in a monster round tonight, he'll need to, he played like an utter mug last night! Never seen him seethe like he did after the bogeys on the first nine. I'm prepared to be called a muppit if I'm wrong here but I cant have Westwood winning and would be amazed if he won. Need Mickelson to have a poor round too if Tigers winning, the way it is Tiger has to shoot low and then get help of the leaders falling behind as well. Should be a good nights viewing anyway, I'm glad my position is in cash, because I would have gone awe-red at 10 or 11 last night, thats why my position is in cash though I suppose, I'm a woeful golf trader. Its more in hope now then expectation Tiger winning.
To tie up the week, its been a good one, a winning one, only small compared to others but sure I'll tip along and keep going no worries. Cricket wasnt happening at all and had some horse losses, in running went well though with Aintree. Boxing chips in as it does every week, wish it was on every night. Its been a awfully long day today, looking forward to lying in bed or the back garden all day tomorrow.
I dont think any real racing man could begrudge McCoy winning the national, absolutely delighted for him, you know if ya werent going to back the winner, hes the one man you'd like to see win it having never done it before.
Sightly annoying they let King Johns Castle go under orders given he was having none of it for a long time before the tapes went up, harsh on punters.. especially me because I backed the hoor. Snowy ran a cracker though, happy with him to get around in one piece finishing in the top ten, that weight stat was blew out of the water too.
Lost €20 on each but there was huge amount of free money knocking around the place today, it was unreal! Vic Venturi and Madison Du Berlais two horses off the top of my head would were freely available to lay in the place market after they fell. I actually ran out of money with four fences to jump or so laying fallers, I wouldnt mind I was seething at Betfair "FFS the bet wont go through.. oh hang on, I'm skint!" That was easy anyway, and when you think I made €60 on the bank holiday just nicking €3 off every race with no risk, today I could lay fallers, I wish the general public would bet more. It'll be back to shark v shark during the week, but sure no one in the general public cares who wins Monday through Friday, and its not gonna change either.
Cricket today was like being in the twilight zone, two matches followed the exact same pattern to a tee, to a tee! Started the chase around 1.3ish after being set a low total, early wickets for a flip flop, run rate so much so in hand could still win handy enough. Lost on the first one because I dont trust Deccan, so when they lost wickets I thought the collapse was on, whereas had faith in RCBs batting line up to lump on them when wickets went down. Lost €100 on first, won €100 on second. I'm fantastic at doing it I have to say.. I cant possibly win on both games, has to be one loss one win! Could be worse though, could lose on both.
Level day, happy enough, was down €150 at one stage, even though the place market in the national settled at the same time as the win market, but I could of been down more.
Cricket: €1.84 | Horse Racing: €1.49 Total P&L: €3.33
Superb night of sport ahead, El Classico and Tiger prowling in The Masters, watching on the computer here before it comes on TV, the course is like watching a feckin' playstation it looks that neat. Still think Tiger overpriced and Mickelson the danger.
Well, Grand National day tomorrow and as everyone knows, anyone interested in horses will have every tosser they know on the phone tomorrow asking for tips, when its the hardest race of the year! Give them a faller "Oh youre not great at gambling are you" etc etc. Anyway, its worth noting that since 1984 to the present there have been 103 runners who carried 11st 2lb or more and they all lost. That stat rules out the top 15 on the card, some big names in the market too.. Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Dont Push It and Tricky Trickster all carry over it. I know they could still win obviously, stats are there to be broken after all, but I'm happy enough to look elsewhere.
I'm also keen on avoiding the two favourites, for starters being from big stables and top of the market, its most likely that they'll be massively over bet tomorrow by the once a year mob, backing 10/1 shots in national is no craic either anyway. Big Fella Thanks has a big shout but with two 'unseated rider' out of his last seven, I'll give him a miss. And The Package seems to jump well and stay, but hes a young horse and this is his first time running in national so I'm happy to miss him out at 12/1 too.
My two against field are King Johns Castle and Snowy Morning, two Irish horses surprise surprise! King Johns Castle has been laid out totally all year for this race, his trainer has made that clear and he ran an absolute cracker here when finishing second, so he ticks the experience box. Likewise Snowy Morning has been around the course twice and completed both times, this year hes carrying the least amount of weight though which gives him a much bigger chance than he had last year at 11st 8lb (remember the stat). Both have great men on their back too in Paul Carberry and David Casey, both should sit there quietly and hunt around, I think the reason McCoy has ever won is because aggressive doesnt seem the way to go jumping fences this big. Anyway, at 18 and 36 on Betfair, they'll be my guesses.
A winning day today too, did anyone just see that Harrison punch, fooking hell! Hes absolutely hilarious though the way he thinks hes going to be a World Champion, he was 5, 3 and 2 rounds behind on the judges cards. Dont really understand why people dont like him, hes a gas man with the stuff he comes out with. I'd love him to fight Haye, just purely for all the trash talk in the build up. Lucky to green up tonight, very unlucky for the 1.04 backers too, Sprott 5 rounds clear, winning the last round and then Harrison lands a wonder punch.
My local independent was going 3/1 on Tiger this morning, so I've topped up after backing at 6s already. Absolutely delighted, couldnt be happier with his position going into the weekend. Solid round today 2 under, leaving him 6 under overall, 2 behind the English lads Poulter and Westwood, neither has won a major and Westwood has bottle history, more worried about Mickelson on 5 under sitting behind (still playing). But sure the way it is, if Tiger plays well he'll win, its his to lose at the moment in my opinion.
Boxing: €25.11 | Horse Racing: €32.33 Total P&L: €57.44
Well, depressing scenes last night in Old Trafford. Out of the Champions League, small chance of winning the league, out of the FA Cup, lost the last 3 games in a row, press blaming poor manager decisions.. I've never felt more like a Liverpool fan in my whole life. Fook it anyway sure its only football, doesnt matter when theres no money on it.
Been a slow last two days for gambling, I normally take Mondays off to spend the day with my Grandad but with this Monday being a bank holiday, I took today to go see him. Nice to see Big Bucks to the business again though, what a horse.
Fiddled around on the cricket and horses but nothing too major. Yesterday, won on the first game, lost on the second, has it ever happened before FFS, cant get a 2/2 for anything, but all good games to watch so no real issue, win some lose some. I only had mobile broadband for 2/3, the one I had fast internet for was the one I lost on funnily enough.
We had a heart rate monitoring doctor down in Ballydoyle yesterday morning, the normal resting heart rate I'm told is between 60 - 80. Mine was 54, he said that was grand, just means I'm fit and more relaxed than most. Then he put me "under stress" running and a few other things to test certain situations, and my heart rate rose peaking at 89. He said that was almost unnaturally low for a person under stress, he asked me what I did, I explained I gambled and didnt have a 'proper' job. "Ah that explains you, no real stress of a working man then" .. "No Doc, I'm just used to absolutely shitting myself every day." Has he never seen an IPL game! Nice guy though, at least everyone knows they wont die now.
Fantastic excitement with Tiger coming back tonight as well. Went into Ladbrokes on the way home tonight and had €50 on him at 6/1, dont normally bet on golf but couldnt not do it, how long has it been since Tiger has started 6/1 sure.
Cricket: -€44.00 | Horse Racing: -€35.81 Total P&L: -€79.81
Anyone remember the 4th Ashes test last year? KP was injured, Freddie injured and pulls out that week, Prior injured in the warm up but plays anyway, Collingwood warms up with the gloves and Ambrose has been put on standby, England ask to delay the toss. Poor Struassy is running around the ground, which has around 300+ people on it with players not knowing whats happening. Cue England collapsing for 102 out all before tea, a record low for 10 years in the Ashes.
I was lying in bed this morning at 12 (as you do) and the alarm started going bonkers. It wasnt even set on FFS, the code doesnt knock it off, nothing would knock it off. I even pulled wires out, and that still didnt knock it off! To say I was SEETHING would be an understatement, had to wait around an hour for some bloke to come a fix it, grand, sorted, issues over.. I sit down at the computer having missed the first half of the racing in a bit of a fluster..
Anyone want to know why Dont Be Bitin was trading at 2.5 in the place market while in the lead going past the omitted 2nd last? Because I was clicking on him thinking I was clicking on Conem. "Jaysus 2.5, this is great.. oh wait wrong horse, BUGGER!" What a plonker. Theres no excuse for clicking the wrong thing, its hard enough pick a winning bet, its the least you can do is click the right button. Thankfully 1.51 was still there to back so I could red out for €35 loss. My horse punting was finnish for the day after that, finnish.
No excuses for the cricket loss anyway - it was a manipulated market and to be honest, it was much too good for me. Mumbai got to 46/0 after 6, the market resistance at 1.6ish was unreal, it was like an unbreakable barrier, money taken down on a boundary but then massive lumps put back up to push it out again. I took it on, thinking that if runs keep coming Lumpy has to back down and reverse soon, even get say a 10 tick trade or so. Never happened. Price never moved. A wicket came then and the way Lumpy is he kicks on, doesnt green out, and it soon got to evens and I bailed. I hate Lumpy though because he can hold the market for as long as possible basically, bottomless pit of money he has, he was right today though fair played to him.
Lost €20 off that trade, then supported Pollard with a lay of 1.22, one six and the market is moving I'm thinking, he got out two balls later going for it. Then supported Harbhajan with a lay of 1.02, he got around 40ish off 18 balls two weeks ago, hes worth a 1.02 lay, he got 33 off 23, cant complain but wasnt good enough in the end. Sachin retired hurt, they went from 62/1 to 89/7 before he came back. Interestingly enough he pretty much put on some sort of score in every game for them, take him away and the rest might crumble easy, probably a misleading team really.
Thought about having a cheeky tenner on any unquoted Barca v Arsenal tonight thinking at 7 or 8 it might be a good bet, looked and it was 4.5, bloody hell! 7/2 to score 4 goals, whos backing that.. (Cue 6!).
Amazing how when you nick a few quid off every market, it all builds up rapidly. Its completely underrated too.
Have to say too, nice to have the grass flat meetings back, bit more excitement than the jumping. And lovely that we had races today that had more than 12 runners. The 5, 6, 7 runner races normally during the week are no craic. My biggest problem is when theres 7 runners in a jumps race, 3 places (been a non runner), only money on the lay side for 2 horse in the place market in running, I drift off day dreaming during it. And in order to read the race properly you obviously have to watch it all! I dont, I zone out thinking what biscuit shall I have when I make a cuppa tea later. But the more runners, the more money in the market, the more focused and on the job I am. Its pretty much exactly what all my teachers said in school, I'm bright when I what to be but just a lazy fooker.
Amazing scenes in the cricket today. Think about this one now - have you ever seen a game won by a side who didnt trade under 1.5 for the whole game? Mental.
I often speak to my mate Dec, whos a big cricket trader too, about why it is I always seem to be on the wrong end of collapses. And the conclusion I came too is because generally when looking for a trade I back the chasing side (the batting team), why? Because I always have the market going with me for runs, and the only way it goes sharply the other way is a wicket, I can get out more times than not for run rate pressure. I only back in the second innings too so basically the market is governed by runs/rate/wickets.
Today I laid Deccan who were chasing (they ended up losing!) and bottled it because the market moved against me for every boundary, it was a mental game by the way, glad with a €35 loss at the end because it was one of those real bank busters, but anyway I'm brutal at laying the chasing team and holding out while runs are coming. But then, the pressure on you builds and builds, you lay 1.5 - it goes 1.4, then 1.3 then 1.2 and youre thinking train, money gone, game over, get out. Then a wicket goes and the market bounces back to 1.7, you'd be in clover if you held on. How in gods name do you not chase 74 off 60 anyway! That was the reason I redded out, thought it was GSM. But I said the other day: "Its a funny game in the sense that you probably back 1.6 thinking "they wont get them" then because of a good start, you panic and red, then eventually end up losing on something you were right with in the first place." Thats exactly what happened. Again.
Watched the Tiger press conference on the news there, no money on it, but christ I would love it Kevin Keegan style if he wins the weekend! "What are your expectations this week?" .. "Nothings changed, gonna go out and win this thing." Goosebumps, wouldnt it be epic if he won.
Then they followed a man of esteem like Tiger with a Geordie fan "What are you expectations for the Premier League next season?" .. "Wye aye man, Champions League place minimum innit.."
Is this the best moment in the history of Sky Sports..
Brilliant! Someone tell 'em Elvis is dead FFS..
Cricket: -€1.28 | Horse Racing: €41.73 Total P&L: €40.45
Happy with a winning day but could of been so much better. Won €100 on the first IPL match was so up €150+ at one stage, then lost €100 on the second game. KP and Kallis partnership 29 off 35 balls. I was fooking seething! Terrible, woeful, awful batting when youre chasing 184, the annoying thing was the rest of the team were OK, dont really blame Kallis, more so KP, but they threw away the game with those few overs and Lumpy really put the boot in, 1.6 to 1.36 without a wicket falling. First game was much better, KKR set a record total for the ground, sent them to 1.17, but Punjab came out whacking it and after 3 or 4 overs I just went with the momentum all the way to the finish.
Had the live feed ahead of SIS for the few races that were RTE from Fairyhouse so made that pay with €40, my god it would of been much more had Zaarito stood up, managed to lay back my stake thankfully but he breaks my heart.. why does he always have to fall when looking like hes pissing it! Exactly like Big Zeb though, he'll skate in at biggish odds at a big meeting, maybe off good ground too. I know they were only turning in today, but he was cruising, absolutely cruising. Remember Leopardstown he fell at the last too when about to take the lead, head in hands man.
Anyway, a winning week, boom! Crickets come good after a while, think I'm settling down more now into IPL, before I was almost too keen to make money on it trying to click every two minutes looking for swings. But the more I actually sit and wait, the better. Only time I was hung, drawn and quartered in the market was the second game today, apart from that been in good shape. Filled in bits and pieces with the horses and boxing, which is the aim really you know, no airs or graces winning thousands, just fill in the gaps.
Last week I won €100 Tuesday then lost every day for the rest of the week, this week I lost €50 Tuesday and then won every day for the rest of the week. Game for nutters this gambling lark, bank holiday tomorrow though so I'll work Monday for a change..
Ruiz = the real Rocky Balboa, how he managed to stand up taking all those shots I'll never know. Awkward fight to trade because Haye would land a heavy shot, go 1.14 then Ruiz would be bounce back so it'd drift to 1.22, plus Ruiz always had a punchers chance you know. No money in the undercard fights either.
Crickets below, lost €11 on the second game though. Fiddling around, I'd no opinion, should of just left it but decided small stakes.
And lost €3 on the boat race.. theres the degenerate addicted gambler coming out. Oxford looked to be closing and the others were 1.03, then they kicked on again and it was all over - SEETHING. It was 33/1 one of them to sink, if I had of known earlier I would of went over with a screwdriver, could you picture the Pakistan cricket team in a boat 33/1 to sink.. 1.01 before you could even see the screwdriver!
I've been gambling since 11 this morning until 12 tonight, nackered, I tell ya something though, I wouldnt have it any other way, I think I deserve a drink even so..
Feckin' carnage! Chennai have just posted 246, unreal, the highest score in all of 20/20 is 260.
Markets at 1.04/1.05 but theres a couple of reasons why it might be a good lay, even taking on board the score is massive.
- Morkel has batted half the innings and is nackered, hes an important bowler. - Waston opens for Raj. - THE BEAST plays for Raj. - The pitch is a road. - The boundaries are short enough. - The heat is immense so the ball is pinging through the air. - Chennai arent the most fantastic bowlers. - Chennai posted 188 at Centurion and failed to defend it against KKR.
Alright you know, the score it bleedin' massive, fairly unlikely Raj win, but theres very little places the price can go unless they fall in the heap and it goes straight to 1.01, theres a bit of scope for it to sneak out a bit. 500K at 1.04 and 400k at 1.05 has been traded so if Raj start well the market might panic. Absolutely NEED Watson and The Beast to play well though.
Hoping for around 1.2ish maybe with a good start, its likely a wicket goes early whacking it, but basically the way it is, the worse that can happen is I lose 3 ticks to 1.01 and theres still a whole innings to bat, unless they fall in a total heap.
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Miss read the tactics here not choosing to open with Watson, still 14 off the first Morkel over, hes goosed. These are all free runs until Watson or The Beast come out. Hopefully they dont piss about and let the chase go to impossible though..
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The Beast comes in hits 4 off the first ball. Cant believe how hes just got out FFS, went for a 6, your man catches it on the ropes, falls over the rope but throws it back in the air and comes back in to catch it. FFS like! A 6 there and the market was moving so much..
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After 11 overs Chennai were 97/2, Raj are now 114/2 for the same stage. So feckin' unlucky the way The Beast was caught, would have gone close, market still at 1.03/1.04, Watson there so still keeping my position.
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Out at 1.2ish.
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GSM Chennai. Raj finished on 223/5. Amazing to think, if Pathan stayed in they would have chased that. Morkel went for 56 runs off his 4 overs. Watson got 60 off 25 balls. Imagine what The Beast would have done, I'm 100% sure Raj would have won. Bollingers bowling has been class though, wouldnt take him on in the future, and hes the one who caught Pathan on the ropes, still cant believe he threw it back in and still caught it FFS, hes basically won them the game on his own though, he only went for 15 off his 4 overs and took two wickets.
Anyway, a Citi Moment Of Success for greening out.
By the way, just flicked on to Sky Sports News there to hear "Tiger to practice with Couples before returning for the Masters." Hopefully the missus wasnt watching..
I've sat here all day waiting for Robin Uthappa to bat (record 6 hitter in the IPL this year). Odds were a bit high when he came in though given I was laying after a wicket and the rate was 12, didnt go in too heavy. Hes an absolute monster though, bit like The Beast in the sense that sometimes he fires sometimes he doesnt but worth backing, hes a bit more trustworthy than The Beast too.
He took 25 runs off a Brett Lee over. Punjab are at home, the only way he'll get out alive is to put on a pretend beard, ponytail and claim to be Simon Whitlock. No one would be any wiser..
For starters, I'm well aware what date it is and even though I take the piss a lot, I'm NOT messing when I say this - just to make it clear. Ballydoyles 'number one' will come from St Nicholas Abbey, Fencing Master, Beethoven and Viscount Nelson. Its been released to the press anyway so it should be in the paps tomorrow morning. Only my opinion but I'd guess that if St Nic didnt run, Johnny would ride Fencing, but I suppose it depends how they work between now and then. I'd no antepost book at all for the Gunieas, but today I had a tenner on Viscount at 100s. Most likely, hes the only one that will have ran before it, so at least he'll be race fit. Hes always worked nice, just has to do it on the track now.
Obviously everyone knows how much I like St Nic, but I'd be sightly worried about the Gunieas, first run of the season being the main worry. From my point of view though I'm still long on him for the Derby and still think he'll win that easily no matter where he finishes at Newmarket (if he runs). Just the thing about the Gunieas is that, he wouldnt be the certainty that we can all lump on like he was last year. I didnt back him first time out last year either. I still think hes a machine and should win, but just not a mortgage job.
Anyway, steady day today with a profit of €25. Actually really enjoyed this afternoons game, best for a while, not in the profit sense but quality game. Was heavy on both teams at different stages so was happy with equal green because I thought Deccan would win in the end, they didnt. Lumpy took a right caning, he pushed Deccan from 1.8 to 1.6 during a break in the overs, next ball was a dot, next ball was a wicket, KKR were 1.6 then! Was tempted to lay the 1.6 Deccan but was basically too afraid because one big over would have had them in control and the market around 1.2, but if you took on lumpy today it would have been very profitable.
Funny how KKR were 1.6 innings SP, after they posted a record score for IPL (or all 20/20) at Eden Gardens, thought that was massive but waited for the start (learned not to take on Gilly!), Gibbs and Gilly came out smacked it around, suddenly it was 1.8 Deccan after a couple of overs. Takes a brave man not to red out having backed at 1.6 KKR at that moment in time when they were easily hitting 9 an over, then it all falls apart. Hard not to give in to pressure redding out though, very hard. Its a funny game in the sense that you probably back 1.6 thinking "they wont get them" then because of a good start, you panic and red, then eventually end up losing on something you were right with in the first place.
Only negative from today was me agreeing to something that I have no idea what it is, it could be anything FFS. Emma has the week off work, even though we havent lived together for all 6 years, you'd think she'd know by now shes completely invisible to me while theres cricket on. Just when you think you have them trained. She came into the room while Dada was batting (what an innings btw!) and I just said yeah to get rid of her.. the last time something like this happened we were on the phone while a race was on, I zoned out watching it, by the time it was over I heard on the phone "And you dont mind coming with me" .. "Oh yeah, of course," next weekend I found myself at High School Musical the live sing along show with 250 other women and two blokes - who definitely batted for the other side by the way.
Cricket: €26.29 Total P&L: €26.29
Tempted to lay Barney tonight against Taylor but 11.5 is a bit high for the stress of it. Barneys mind is shot to pieces against Taylor though. He'll probably start fast, it'll be 2-2, then Taylor will checkout over 100 and Barney will give up. Has it ever happened before..
I must have really low self esteem because I cant think of anything good or interesting to say about myself, I never even won a medal, got most improved footballer once but that just means ya were shite anyway. The blog was started to do the €100 to €100,000 Challenge, started on the 1st of March 2009 and still going, hopefully complete it some day but sure look I'll never run out of time. Hope you enjoy reading and feel free to comment etc, its all only a bit of craic at the end of the day anyway. Dont take anything I say too serious, even though I am the daddy..
