31/08/2009

Absolutely heartbroken. Warwickshire only need 1 run off 2 balls at the end and it finishes a tie, gutted. Gave up the horses half way through the day to play the cricket and all, it was an up and down day in running, so many meetings it was hard to get going. I'm just gutted they couldnt get 1 run off 2 balls at the end jesus, off to the gym to try and forget about it, the heads gone after that so no more betting today.

Horse Racing: EUR17.68 Total P&L: EUR17.68

30/08/2009

Just back from The Curragh, got absolutely pissed on for the whole day and didnt back a winner, not in the best of moods after Lillie Langtry couldnt pick up in the mud, but the winner won easy so well done to her. Amazed Fame And Glory hasnt moved that much in the Champion Stakes market on Betfair after todays rain, it lashed down, and was a bog out in The Curragh, steady rain all the time in Dublin too. Leopardstown said this: "The latest going report from the Dublin track which describes course conditions as good, good to firm in places." Nearly had a heart attack laughing, who are they kidding, I wouldnt laugh if they said it was good, almost believe them before todays rain, but "good to firm in places" is taking the piss surely, maybe in the stands its a bit firm cause its concrete! Welcome to Ireland, it rains a lot, the ground is soft.

Theres a lad covering the weather at Leopardstown for Betfair too and hes been following all the showers each day, even he thinks it will be soft already. Whatever the ground is like now or indeed ends up like, Leopardstown are lying at the moment. Everyone saw the rain at The Curragh today, that went all the way back into Dublin. Read it for yourself..
http://betting.betfair.ie/horse-racing/leopardstown-races/leopardstown-going-guide-irish-champion-stakes-going-updates-240809.html

Anyway, seething at the Leopardstown officials aside, it was an alright day apart from the horses, less said about them the better. Man City won to take the football bank over €100 for the first time, at the 3rd attempt! Got the last 20 minutes of the GAA and won a few quid, and traded the completed match market on the cricket. I know I said betting on the weather was stupid the other night but someone was trying to manipulate the market into flip flops every two minutes, I'm too clever for that business (would have felt like a sap if I lost though), jumping the market from 1.4 to 2.2 in seconds while the covers are still on isnt the smartest move but I'm sure he probably fooled a few people into it, once you could see what the person was doing it was handy enough to make money off and I was equal green both sides.

Cricket: EUR61.63 | Gaelic Games: EUR24.45 | Horse Racing: -EUR70.00 Total P&L: EUR16.08

Been a steady week on Betfair without anything amazing happening, made a few costly mistakes but was aiming for around €30 a day, fell short of that but won on Betdaq too so it was fairly close. Nice to just have a handy week and move forward, enjoyed myself this week doing the horses in running again which is really nice. Cut out the mistakes and it will only get better, losing €70 today at The curragh on Betfair mobile didnt help mind.

29/08/2009

Solid day today, although Betfair was a bit slow putting in bets so had to stop doing in running half way through the day. Yesterday was fantastic, was down €70 at one stage but managed to get back to level by the end of the day. Bit disappointed with the cricket yesterday but today was better, I went equal green so I could watch the United match, maybe should have let my position run a bit more because the team I laid at 1.2 ended up losing, but I was delighted with €40 either way at the time and watched the match happily. Fantastic United won too!

Really got away with one backing Spurs today, 95th minute, have the football bank on Real at the moment 2-1 up but heading off out when that finishes. Its been a good day, although really hard to focus on one thing at a time when theres so much going on. I'd have probably done better if I stuck to one sport today but rather win a small amount on each and enjoy everything at the same time.

27/08/2009

Blessed. Without question probably should have lost my whole betfair balance (€300ish at the moment) twice today. How in the blue hell Ireland didnt chase down 116 in 20 overs against England today I'll never know, we are pants, I couldnt believe Ireland were odds against to chase it down to begin with though. Lumped on them only to bottle it when a wicket fell early enough in the chase, but they were odds on at that point so still had a big green on Ireland, nothing on England. England won by two runs but this happened with on the second last ball "19.5 Shah to T Johnston, 2 runs. Towards the long-on boundary and Morgan, on the field, throws it back into play, stops the six." An Irish bloke stopping us beating England at cricket, fantastic! That said I'd play for England too for the money but anyway.

Second game was a fair bit of a joke to be honest, the wind was too strong so they had to take down the lights, which was fair enough because I dont like people getting killed by falling lights you know, but they knew this before the game yet play 27 overs one side and then let it finish on D/L after 12ish overs (the guess at the toss). Why they didnt go with 18 overs a side I'll never know, stupid really. I got myself into a horrible position backing Surrey at around 1.6 after 2 overs chasing the total, they only needed to be at 41 after 10 overs to win, but they started losing wickets and got behind the rate very quickly. So I was looking at -€154 Surrey with Kent trading at 1.24, laid that for €100 to bring my book back to as if I'd backed Surrey at evens in the hope of a flip flop.

It doesnt work all the time and makes it worse when it doesnt come off but on certain sports when flip flops happen a fair bit its well worth the extra few euro red at the time, it only would have made it €25ish worse anyway and it was giving me the chance to get out. Sure enough the flip flop came, for what reason I'm not too sure because Surrey were never ahead of the rate (closest was 3 or 4 away), and I was able to get rid of my red at evens. As I said you know, sometimes it'll make things worse but laying low price doesnt do much harm, and it gives you more options for getting out, like today there was no chance of Surrey going back to my 1.6 to get out.

Got the football bank going again backing City, they look fairly good to me, will back them the weekend too. Thinking of backing Chelsea in the early kick off before, and thought Arsenal looked a massive price against United, I'm a United fan so its nearly impossible to back against them cause it'd be just stupid hoping for two things and ruin the game. But Arsenal are playing well and thought the odds should be a bit closer. Didnt have the time to play the horses today, but dont think I missed much with two all weather meetings on out of the three meetings, its a shame theres so much all weather cause its not the greatest. We had a good shower in Leopardstown this evening I'm told so its looking good for my 7/4 on Fame And Glory, at the moment I'm hoping Sea The Stars doesnt turn up, but even if he does I'd still be fairly confident of beating him (as confident as you could be against a horse like him anyway), 7/4 on Fame And Glory was massive at the time with the weather were having regardless of what happens.

26/08/2009

Ever have that feeling that youre an absolute mug? Well, I've got that feeling right now! Its horrible, sitting here thinking what kind of tosser am I. Betting on the weather, what a bad idea, on the cricket completed match market tonight, covers coming off so lay "No" then as there just about to come off it starts to rain again, ten minutes later the match is called off. Felt like I was doing the right thing at the time but god it feels awful now, you only get that feeling after youve lost money though like you never feel like this during the bet. Anyway, seriously not a happy man so off to the gym.

Horses went well again today and it was a good day ruined by one silly bet on the weather, what a mug! By the way, racing on RUK is a million times more fair with their picture speeds than ATR, if I had of played better today could have easily won €100 plus, just was a bit slow and got buttons wrong a couple of times, putting €1 in instead of €11, doesnt accept €1 then, that happened maybe 3 or 4 times and missed out on €40, and missed a few races due to internet going down because the weather was pants again here today.

25/08/2009

Steady day again. In running on the horses was hard enough with just Southwell and Sedgefield on this afternoon, didnt help that I got behind early but did well to pull it back in the last 3 or 4 races of the day, seriously wanted to keep going at the time but there was no races left. Starting to look forward more and more to playing in running each day after my holiday and love having that feeling coming back, I think understanding the limits of what I can do in the markets was very important, bit of discipline and patience with so little liquidity on offer is important too, very easy to chase the market when theres no money on the lay side and I have to accept that.

The cricket went well too, although it was a hard game to trade. Basically it was GSM after Gloucestershire posted such a low total first innings, Hampshire were going to stay between 1.08 and 1.25 the whole innings so it was important to pick trades and NOT lay after a wicket, which is the worse thing you can do in this situation. The price bounces out but then it'll bounce straight back in because the total was so small, massively important to have a good set of balls too, there was 29 runs scored in 9 overs I think, but laying with such a low total to chase is like catching a falling knife, one four or six and the price flys against you no matter how many dot balls went before. Obviously every game is different and you have to judge the pitch, the bowling attack and the total before trading like this, but tonight was fairly handy.

Cricket: EUR35.67 | Horse Racing: EUR17.72 Total P&L: EUR53.39

Football Bank Kaput Again

Surprisingly not that gutted its gone, because it was Liverpool! Have to say I did have a little laugh at them this evening, I shouldnt really back them but seriously thought they would have won tonight. At least if the bank goes, its gone with Liverpool and not United, last time I was seething.

Have to say absolutely everything pointed to a Liverpool win tonight before the game and it goes to show how random football is, I cant call it anymore, if you went totally against the obvious and general consensus you'd win a fortune. Its not worth having the likes of €2,000 plus on any game these days. Liverpool were all over them for most of the first half, so much so the price came into 1.39, then Villa score from a set peice.

I'm delighted with the Betdaq football bank idea, its saved me thousands already and were only two weeks into the season. Back in the day it would have been a massive loss on United against Burnley and again tonight with Liverpool, dont think I'll ever make football pay again but this small rolling €25 bank gives you all the fun of it. Best idea I've ever had.

Annoyed to lose obviously though, wont back Liverpool again for a while, didnt like what I saw tonight. I take picking the bets seriously even though I'm not bothered with losing you know, I accept I'll end up losing a good few times with it during the season, hopefully less then 10 - 15 times. Only a bit of craic to help with discipline and money management, which has so far worked wonders, would recommend it to anyone on a sport you enjoy but cant really make money off.

Anyway, round 3 here we go!

24/08/2009

Quiet day. I never seem to read Kempton well, then Windsor is on ATR so its a good bit behind so that left me with only Hamilton to be confident on really. But it was a good day none the less, a proper day for discipline and patience. Have to say the delay on ATR today was scary, I dont normally have a moan over it and just accept it, but it was about 6-7 secs behind today, going in play miles ahead of the stalls opening and suspending miles ahead of the finish on my screen. I dont mind there being a delay once they stop going on as if everythings normal, quoting in running prices etc really annoys me!

Aside from there being a delay, dont have much to talk about today so have time for a screen shot here to show what the markets like in running, it really is poor. This was taken less than 2F from the line, but they havent gone past the furlong marker yet, so between 2F and 1F to go:














I take on board that its a Monday afternoon and things are fairly quiet anyway with people at work, but even so it just looks so bad on the lay side. I understand you know, people dont want to have a bet, this race was on RUK too (some races on ATR are worse), but the lay side really is pathetic at the most important part of the race. I suppose people are sick of having their money grabbed off them by the fast picture boys, I dont really know the reason. I'm not having a go at people for not betting either I think theyre right, just want to show how hard it is to make good money in running from home these days. I look at markets like this every day, and as for the Irish markets, lets not go there.

But anyway no need to get depressed about it, just try and get the best out of what youre given. Happy with my days P&L for what was on offer, and got my Betdaq football bank on Liverpool to beat Aston Villa tonight.

Horse Racing: EUR22.95 Total P&L: EUR22.95

Last Wednesday night after the cricket loss, I said I just left €200 in the account, have it up to just above €300 now since Thursday without betting Sunday so thats going good. For anyone thats interested too, it lashed rain all day again today in Dublin and with nearly all our meetings being called off to waterlogging this week its looking less and less likely we'll see Sea The Stars turn up at Leopardstown. Still a while to go though so you never know, but Oxx wont want to take on Fame And Glory if the grounds not perfect for Sea The Stars I reckon, I've backed Fame And Glory already anyway.

23/08/2009

Didnt think the test would finish that quick! Well played England, thought Ricky Ponting was pure class there at the end, top bloke. Have a lot of time for him and Michael Clarke after this summer. I was blessed with greening out, everything explained in the last post.

Been a good enough week although a losing one, mainly down to the Pro40 being a disaster two games in a row but did well after on the horses to pull it back a bit, and got exactly what I wanted with €20 - €30 winning days. Hopefully continue with that next week.

Come On Australia

My book at the moment is OK, having backed them at 15ish and kept reducing liability as I went along.

I think they'll do it, but thats the problem, I 'think' and I dont believe. Still not 100% sure because its really hard to get a start on the pitch, once youre in though its fine. So backing Australia after a wicket is a good idea if you think the batsman can play himself in without giving it away. Of the batsmen to come, I'd say Clarke and North can do that, I'd trust them, dont really fancy the others that much to do it though. Probably need a 100 from Ponting just to get things going. I'd absolutely love them to do it with Ponting and Clarke at the crease, be fantastic.

Would be happy enough to back Australia again if Hussey goes, starting after the breaks each time looks really hard but after it gets easier so hopefully they can see off the first half an hour without a wicket. A world record chase though, their still miles and miles away from getting there, and it could finish fast. Really would love them to do it now and right up for this chase, but just not confident enough to have a proper cut on them with €300 plus on, keeping my liability under €100. Will keep reducing liability as I go along too, this game is a like a hot potato now, who ever has their money down when a wicket goes loses it, while I'd much rather be backing after a wicket than laying, but all depends how the game is going at the time.

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Update at 3.56PM

Ponting run out, top up. Clarke 0, top up. North 10, bollocks! Need a miracle now. Technically its still on but looks impossible from here, needed scores from Clarke and North to win, but still lots of scope of a bit of market panic while Haddin is there. Wouldnt be backing at 20, but not much I can do can but hope for a chance to be able to reduce the loss.






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Update at 5.05PM

And I'm out! Fantastic, my nerves are gone watching this. Really hope Australia do it, but still totally unsure of them getting there, not touching my book now, I've gotten away with a few things today so happy to let it run on the Aussies, Haddin and Hussey have to get them to within a 100 to win I suppose, not much after Johnson. One wicket soon and you'd say that will be that, so I'd be playing with fire if I stayed in the market with an hour until the close of play. Havent had a bet today bar this so will update everything tomorrow when its over.

22/08/2009

Totally confused whats going to happen in the test at the moment. Was wrong about the draw back, but funnily enough it came back it after I redded out, no idea why! But was right about wanting to back Australia in double figures and got a good trade out of that, so my book is currently like this:






I'm happy with that for the time being. I seriously, seriously want to back the Aussies to chase this down, but theres just something telling me not too, dont know what it is. The highest ever run chase? Still an awfully long way to go, and at 5.2 one wicket and it shoots out a fair bit, I might look to back them after a wicket, but then Ponting is a nervous starter. I reckon they'll need a 100 from Ponting and Clarke to get the runs. The draw is totally kaput now unless it rains, if the Aussies bat the time, they win.

The pitch is after getting a hell of a lot easier to bat on judging by today, nearly 400 runs for 5 wickets I think. That makes me want to back Australia even more but will wait and see what happens in the morning, its miles closer than the odds suggest, but at the same time too close to know what to do, I think Australia do it, but a world record chase to win the Ashes, I dont know. Tomorrows morning session will tell a lot about where the games going.

Aside from the cricket, backed Cape Blanco in Fairyhouse, he didnt win as well as I hoped for but I suppose a wins a win on that ground. Arsenal won too to get the football bank going again.

Horse Racing: EUR30.50 Total P&L: EUR30.50

The 5th Test

Still an awful lot of trading left in this game, although England are the most likely winners. If someone said I could have €5,000 for predicting the result, I'd say England and cheers for the money but for the time being, I'm on the draw. The longer England bat the more likely the draw price is going to come, and also England runs are helping the draw come in more too so theres lots of scope for it to come in a bit. But its massively important for me to keep the liability under €100 because I'm playing with fire in a big way here, also important to keep feeding a bit back so a wicket doesnt kill you.

But for the next session I'm on the draw until it comes down a bit, hopefully England bat all day, which is a fantastic result for the draw. Then when Australia come out to bat, maybe (I stress maybe) looking to back them as the market loves them and you have to think at some stage they'll have a partnership. Even England fans are saying "we'll win but it is England after all" i.e. no confidence, and the market will reflect that. Its been treating fours like a 20/20. But if England play well the game could be over in an hour or so.

The pitch is bad but its not THAT bad, its far from unplayable. The draw bet all depends on what England post so its not a bet I'd want to just hang onto for as long as possible, will be feeding a bit back as it goes down if its reaches below 9.4, I think 7 is the absolute bottom for it to go, but got a nice little bounce out there during the lunch break for no real reason. Jeez I feel like Adam Heathcote here, that'll be €55 please! Only messing.

But on the draw for the next little while, always feeding a bit back. And then looking to get on Australia in double figures hopefully depending on what England set them, if its over 500, I'd give the draw more chance than a chase down. I reckon its highly unlikely they'll collapse twice in the one game, but we'll see. Playing with fire so its important not to build up a red on England, but theres a massive amount of scope for the draw price to come in and then the Australia price to come in, with maybe eventually England winning, but I dunno about GSM-ing it just yet!

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Update at 2.24PM

Draw finnish, kaput! All depends on what England post now whether or not Australia will chase it, under 450 I'd give them a chance.

21/08/2009

Today was a good result in regards to be P&L line but I did some awful things in running, it was near impossible to focus when I was flicking in between each race over to the cricket, and that was so good it was impossible not to flick. It was very hard to go straight into in running, I was turning over as the race went off, terrible idea. The only two things that saved me today was Banyan Tree winning in Killarney and someone getting their colours wrong with Dandy Man in running, no idea what they were watching but I was delighted laying it anyway! Apart from those two results, the rest were pants. You really have to be 100% committed and focused for the whole day in running or its kaput, its amazing how easy it is to lay a winner, when its insanely difficult to pick one.

Still a winning day to keep moving forward even though I wasnt at my best, just kept calm all day and had a bit of patience. Seriously looking forward to seeing Cape Blanco again tomorrow, although wont find out how good he is in this race, he should win handy enough without being asked a question.

Over in the 5th test, Australia are the new England! With a total mid-innings collapse, the pitch is a minefield. I still dont think its over, no point doing anything now until England are all out and set a target, then I might have a bet. I cant see Australia failing twice in one game, but they arent going to chase down 400 on this pitch, its a tough one to call. Glad I havent had a bet so far really.

Horse Racing: EUR27.30 Total P&L: EUR27.30

20/08/2009

Usain Bolt is amazing, absolutely amazing! Thats 0.11 secs off the 100M world record AND 200M world record in the space of a few days, unreal. Anyway, solid day today to get back to winning ways after the cricket disaster yesterday. Didnt really do anything out of the ordinary, just played simple and let things happen, was a few quid behind at one stage but didnt force things and just kept calm and eventually got back in front. Happy to finish up early with the P&L line near €20, only had a bank of €200 today so thats a proper good result.

By the way, did anyone see the Frank Spencer interview today on CH4 with Derek Thompson after the Yorkshire Oaks. I'm sorry but Spencer would want to cop himself on and grow up, I've never liked him after what happened in Ballydoyle, but isnt it great when everythings going fantastic you can wave at the other jockeys and make them look silly, but when it goes wrong and you finish second you cant even give a proper interview. If he wants to show off and give it the whole 'I'm the big man look at me' when he wins, at least have the courtesy to be nice when you lose. He didnt even do anything wrong, he was just beaten by the better horse on the day, and thats racing. I do be seething after losing some races and it hurts when its important, I know it does, but you still say well done to the winner, I'm sure if Mastercraftsman had of won on Tuesday the first person to say well done to AP would have been John Oxx. Lost all respect and time for Spencer, even if I didnt have much beforehand.

In the 5th test, havent had a bet but I fear for England. Its just seems like its another one of those, England get 350 then the Aussies get something insane like 650 and then England are all out before Australia have to even bat again. Hopefully that doesnt happen, but as I said, no bet for the time being.

Athletics: EUR4.10 | Horse Racing: EUR15.48 Total P&L: EUR19.58

Man Or Woman

Paddy Power go 1/2 woman, 7/4 man. I've never seen a more manly woman anyway! He/She just does everything like a man, and looks like a man! Fiddling around at the start just screams man, and after the race walking around screams man. I've no idea how they do the gender test, but surely if he/she was born with both bits (Lady Gaga style) then he/she shouldnt be allowed to run in the womens race?

Could you picture if she was actually all woman, the poor girl is 18 and the whole world are going "are you a fella love?" Anyway, Usain Bolt runs tonight, he is the daddy!

19/08/2009

Awful evening, probably the worst one I've had for ages, I'm depressed. I'm normally depressed when United lose but to watch my football bank go sailing down the river too at the same time makes it ten times worse, not even going to talk about it. I knew I was going to come unstuck at some point, that was a given, but for it to happen when I've backed my team hurts, against Burnley too, oh dear.

Anyway, if I thought the football was bad, the cricket was worse! Weve had two seriously hard games to call and trade the last two days and I've been on the wrong end of them both, last nights game was the worst one for a long while talking to a few people, but you do get them games. Tonights was hard enough but it was all me I think, couldnt do a thing right. These two will stick in my head for a while and I reckon the best thing to do is to take a break from cricket for a couple of days, it shouldnt be a problem with the 5th test starting, I can watch that without having a bet.

Its a weird feeling when youve no confidence in anything youre doing at the time. Its like you feel in your head youre totally jinxed and cant do a thing right, thats nonsense really, but you still feel like it. Its the worse feeling when youre having a bet, and straight away in the back of your head you get the thought "its going to go wrong." Its just stupid little stuff that builds up when youre trading, like laying a team, then a wicket goes next ball or vice versa. Best thing to do is stop for a while.

Horse racings going well and I'll stick with that for the rest of the week. Whats it like banging your head off a wall? Trying to beat Sea The Stars! Hes a fantastic horse. I cant complain, everything happened in the race that I wanted too and he still won, hes a weird horse in the sense that while youre watching the race its not impressive but then you look back and think jesus. Is he the best I've ever seen? No idea! I dont know why people always come up with "the best horse ever etc etc" its all nonsense to me, take each group year by year, because we'll never know whos better, its a silly way of looking at things to me, obviously people like to compare horses though. Fame And Glory for the Champion Stakes, our last hope! I actually think he has a great chance, and in all likelihood Sea The Stars might not run with all the rain we get over here.

So a little break from cricket after today. I've been saying about taking things easy and not too much risk taking, well I havent really its just everythings went against me. It wasnt one big trade that went wrong, it was nearly all of them going wrong one after the other. It hurts and sticks in your head, you think about it for days, but what can I do. Only thing I can do is avoid the sport for a small while, its a massive blow. And coupled with the football, today hurt a lot.

Again, withdrew a few quid, back to €200 in the account, thats all. Tomorrow will feel like a fresh start when I look at a nice round number, but more so it'll stop me doing anything silly because the heads wrecked after this evening. No bets with the bookies at all either this week, and just put another €25 in Betdaq for the next football round!

No matter what happens, I'm just going to try a build from this €200, no bets outside of Betfair bar obviously the Betdaq football, go back to thinking small until I forget about the cricket. Awful day. I've had worse days P&L wise but certain days just hurt more than others.

Mastercraftsman v Sea The Stars

Tomorrow sees the big clash! Few people were writing off Mastercraftsman while I was in the gym this morning, was more than annoying. I know Sea The Stars is good but its not a walkover, at least give Master a bit of respect because it could be quite close tomorrow.

From a betting point of view I thought 1/3 was a bit short on Sea The Stars, I know hes won everything this season but at the same time Mastercraftsman won the Irish 2000G by nearly 5L and battled well in Royal Ascot, showing that the trip poses no problem, to me anyway. Having said that I wouldnt exactly be lumping on Master either at 4.2, but hes still worth a bet to me, purely because people are under estimating him and he looks a bit of value at this stage. Its hard to be confident, but I would really love to see him win, love it!

Regardless of who wins I want to see this happen, Mastercraftsman to get first run on Sea The Stars and ask him to go past. In the Derby Sea The Stars got first run on Fame And Glory, and in the Eclipse he got first run on Rip Van Winkle. So Sea The Stars has had it fairly handy in his last two races, in the sense of everythings went right for him and fallen into place, we couldnt beat him that way so obviously youve to come up with another way of beating him. One thing is certain, Master will give 100%, he'll battle and he wont give up if hes headed. Which is why I think the 1/3 about the favourite is very poor value.

A few people are questioning why Ballydoyle have the two pacemakers, thats pretty much to set it up for Master, the idea that going fast "sets it up" for Sea The Stars is nonsense. Go slow and Sea The Stars will fly by, have to make it a war. Master will like a war and Sea The Stars might not, there must be a reason why John Oxx is keen to avoid running again over 1M4F. Theres lot of angles into the race but it has to be a test and Master has to have first run to win, and if Sea The Stars flys by well hes the best horse in the race and you say well done.

Now, another idea might be to go incredibly slow and make MJ make the running, but if you asked me who had the best turn of foot between the two, I'd say Sea The Stars so that doesnt appeal to me, but I'm sure AP will do what he thinks is best. I dont think I've ever seen him say go slow, its normally always go fast. I'm seriously hoping Master wins, more hopeful than confident though, but I still think he'll win. I fly over in the morning, cant sleep!

See this picture below, thats MJ staring right at Johnnys arse, hope the same thing is happening tomorrow at half three! Frank "I stand in the stalls while they open and the horse runs off without me" Spencer is in the back ground waving and blowing kisses at Seany Levey as he goes past him to finish 8th.

17/08/2009

Athletics: EUR3.79 | Cricket: EUR0.80 | Horse Racing: EUR1.08 Total P&L: EUR5.67

I know I said I'd relax a bit but not that much, its better than losing though! I wasnt actually sitting here betting in €2s all day, I was €20 down at one stage on the horses and when I got back to level gave up. While the cricket was a bit annoying, traded it very well but always had all my green on Sussex and nothing on Somerset. I was dealing with prices in the 1.1s for most of the time I was trading, had green both sides at this stages though from the swing at the start of the second innings, but kept laying Somerset at short prices and then feeding a bit back to get rid of the liability, but never going fully green.

Probably should have got money out of it, but I always thought it was a close enough game and I was doing the right thing. I had €5,200 green on Sussex though! I could have had at least €20 green on Somerset looking back, it was a fair bit annoying every time things got going and you'd get a bit of market panic a wicket would fall. I was probably being greedy not having say €1,000 of the Sussex green on Somerset at 1.05, but I always thought the odds were poor for the match position. I've said before it doesnt bother me certain times when I lose because in my head I'm doing the right thing, but maybe sometimes too I should get some money out of matches, its like that time I had €1,800ish green on Australia and refused to go all green, even though I could for €500.

Pretty much happy overall though because it looked a hard day to win money but I've done everything right, kept my patience and didnt lose. But at the same time were in the results business and when I put myself in good positions I should cash out. Even though I trade cricket, I'm still a gambler at heart and I quite fancied the run chase this evening. Also, how an opener can be left on 90 odd with no support whatsoever through the whole card is a joke! Well played Ed Joyce, the rest were pants.

New Attitude

Days like today are the worst, you wake up and see Wolverhampton and Kempton are the only two afternoon meetings on, two all weather meetings, its doesnt exactly make you want to jump out of bed looking forward to it. What makes it worse for me is Wolverhampton is nearly impossible to trade in running, with the hotel boys on course and it being on ATR, which is more than a couple of seconds behind. Kempton offers more hope being on RUK, but its the type of track they always turn it into a sprint off the final bend and I never read it well for in running, but thats OK because thats my issue. Not like Wolverhampton, which is ATRs issue for being behind.

I said I'd come back after my break a new man and I reckon I have done. Have a few plans that I'm putting in place to help with discipline and they can only improve my gambling, things like the small football bank bets, no betting on golf and no betting while the first innings is on in cricket. Stuff like that helps me from not losing. Discipline really is the most important thing, I dont think I've got on tilt since I started the blog, maybe once on the darts but not too bad, but its still important to not bet on things you shouldnt.

But theres a couple more things I want to work on, my staking and 'not forcing things' are at the front of my head this morning. This day is a perfect example, you get given little hope with the horse racing cards but its important not to try and do things that arent possible with them. It natural to want to win €100 or so every day but on days like today I'm starting to think thats impossible. I just want to win €20 today and move on, wait until theres better things to get involved with, which means being more relaxed and accepting I cant work wonders every single day, even though I want to.

Theres a cricket game this evening too and that offers my best chance of doing something good today, but if I start pushing the boat out while the racing is on from 2 - 5, not get matched or get caught out being behind, I'm mentally shot by the time the cricket does come around, not thinking straight.

While the golf was on last night I was doing a bit of research into Michael Clarkes Arabic tattoo, hes fast becoming my favourite cricketer and I think his tattoo on his arm looks savage, did out a design for my own but with a different meaning. But anyway I found out what his meant:

"The pain of discipline is nothing like the pain of disappointment."

I know he probably means it in a cricketing sense, but it rings true more in the gambling sense of things. From his point of view I suppose its about, let the good balls go past not playing at them and wait for the bad ball to put away. That makes a whole lot of sense. Now put it into a gambling perspective, theres so many sports on its so easy to have a bet on anything, but you have to wait until its a good moment. From my point of view the afternoons racing is woeful but I have to let it go past without doing any damage, and wait for the cricket tonight.

Try pick a winner at kempton today, I cant, but I want to win every day, but I cant. Its difficult to put into words what makes sense in my head, mainly because I dont understand half the things going on up there but anyway, its like I'm trying to win €100 or more, trying to do my best, get good results every day, but I just have to calm it down a bit some days. The more relaxed you are the most successful you are. But its just about lowering expectations and lowering bets.

Its only human to want to do good, everyone wants to be a winner at the end of each day, look at the P&L and say "yeah I'm the daddy!" But some days your best effort is when you dont do anything. I'm going a have a little go at in running today because its the first real day back on the challenge, but I'm not going to expect anything, just going to play it as it comes, have patience, relax and let things happen to me rather than go looking for something that might not be there.

It'll probably take a good while to get into this mindset but for the time being I'm just going to focus on trying not to lose, rather than trying to win. Less things go wrong and you can only go forward. Its amazing if you inch forward for a certain amount of time, things just gradually pick up as you go along. Rather than sitting down and trying to work wonders in two hours, Rome wasnt build in a day, and neither will your bank.

The Curragh Sunday (Currently +15.31pts)

Just a couple of small thoughts before I go, I think it rained overnight although I'm not 100% sure.

2-15 The Curragh
How in gods name Black Eyed Susan is 7.2 on Betfair is scary. Its almost putting me off backing her, I had her in at around 5/2 - 9/4 in this, she was well fancied first time out but couldnt get through the heavy going, Johnny came back and said she lost her action a couple of furlongs out and wasnt hard on her after. Theres a bit of talk about Bolgers, Gile Na Greine, apparently shes a good one but I dont back two year olds first time out so happy to take her on. And I dont understand how Jade Jewel is favourite, that was a woeful race at Leopardstown, it was only between the first two in the betting and even then their below average, its just not form to make her a favourite in a race at The Curragh. You have Weld and Oxx newcomers too, the odds look so wrong to me this morning it makes me think I'm wrong! If it rains before the race I'd fancy Black Eyed Susan a lot less, but shes a massive price on the face of things, might even get bigger nearer the off.

2-45 The Curragh
Hard to pick between the front pair. Casual Conquest was well below par at Leopardstown the last day, even if he needed the run, he must have needed it massively for that to be an excuse, but hes a fantastic horse. Curtain Call always saves his best for here so hes a hard horse to catch right, its between the two of them, I thought about backing the both of them on Betfair but its such a little return for a big outlay. If there was a slightly bigger return I'd do it.







3-15 The Curragh
No bet.

3-45 The Curragh
No bet. Although it does look between Miss Chaparral, Redera and Via Con Dios. You could have those three on your side and take on the field, but at the same time I wouldnt be that confident of the winner coming from those three to put up a certain amount of money. You could back the three of them coupled at evens on Betfair at the prices now.

4-15 The Curragh
The most open Group race to be ever run here. EVER! Every one of them could win.

4-45 The Curragh
My only confident bet today, Famous Name, I know theres nothing original about backing or tipping odds on shots but he looks to have a fantastic chance today, and is likely to go off shorter than the 2/5 he is now. I've never liked Three Rocks and happy to take him on, hes probably ran more than any other horse this year! And Poet has had his chances. DK has placed Famous Name to perfection on his last two runs and hes found another good race for him today, its hard to see him being beaten and I'm happy to back him at 2/5.


5-15 The Curragh
Whole race centers around St Nicholas Abbey, and hes very much a wow horse at home. If he ran like he works, he'd win this on the bridle, seriously. I'm not a fan of backing two year olds first time out so I dont mind letting him go off at 4/6 without backing him, he'll come on for the run too obviously coming from AP's. But its just a race to watch and see how good he actually is, I think he might be a superstar but we'll see. No idea how he'll handle the ground though. Definitely a no bet but a serious horse to watch today.

Anyway, only bet for the day..
Famous Name 4-45 The Curragh, 2pts win @ 2/5 with Paddy Power.

Hopefully United do the business for my football bank too!

15/08/2009

Good day first day back. 20/20 finals day went well both games, after watching the first innings in the final decided not to have a bet because Trescothick was basically the game but had no idea what he'd do, he ended up getting 30 odd and out, it was game over after that and as I type Sussex are 1.02, no value there.

The two games I did bet on were fairly handy, low totals posted in the first innings and just backed the team chasing at half time, not having a bet while the first innings is going on comes into its own here. The football went really well too, will back United tomorrow as the 4th bet.

Apart from that, not much else happening today. Really hard not to back Tiger but sticking to the not betting on golf rule, even though he looks an absolute certainty. Going to The Curragh tomorrow so wont be around!

Back Home With A Bang

I'm glad I only started the football bets with €25, bit too much sweating for a 1.19 winner! Its nice to get a little reminder how hard it is to call football on the first day of the season, Chelsea by miles the better team today but you have to wait until injury time to take the lead. Watching the first half too, Chelsea all over them but Hull go one up. It really is the most random sport, I suppose thats why we all love it! Delighted it was only €25 and not €2,000 or more like before, anyway next bet is Man City to beat Blackburn on the side, I thought the price was a bit high. I know they were poor away from home last year but the new signings this summer are brilliant for these type of trips, the likes of Barry, Bridge, Tevez, Ireland and Bellamy will be alright on away days. And then you have Robinho and Adebayor who might turn it on.

Nice to have the football season back, I'll be doing all the bets on Betdaq and wont bet on anything else over there, having whole bank bets all the time its handier to keep track of that way. Still thinking about what to do when I get to a certain amount, whether to stop and go back to €25 again, but after watching the Chelsea game I dont think I'll worry about that until it happens! This is probably the best idea I've ever had too for betting on football. Back betting on Betfair today for the challenge too, will update how it goes later.

Weekend GAA

I said before I left I'd love a chance to trade the GAA and I got it today off it internet. Not going to have a bet at all next week, but I couldnt turn down the GAA today, a sport I always do well on. Bit disappointed I lost on the cricket but cant have it all ways I suppose. Off out for dinner! Wont post until I get home next week.

The Great England Collapse

Oh dear. I've been saying it might happen at some stage this summer and the time it happens is the one time I've no money on the test match! Havent got pictures this morning so I've no idea how their getting on right now, but the match was over last night, well it was actually over in the first morning but anyway. I only read one paper over here, but I dont agree with making lots of changes, I seriously believe thats why England are the way they are, one batsman fails and all of a sudden its get rid of him quickly. Too much pressure. Its got to Bopara, shame to see really. What do you say, everyones calling for massive changes and its only 1-1. BUT, I do have an issue with Ian Bell being in the side, that should have never happened. All the stick KP gets when he gets out for under 20, when hes not there they look weak, basically the long and the short of it is theres too much pressure put on the players by the press and the fans, and too much criticism. Alright if someones crap, but talk of being dropped after one poor game is total nonsense, did the Aussies drop Johnson even though we were all laughing at him? Nope.

Anyway, backed two horses, going off what I was told but havent gone it too heavy. One has already won and one runs later today, wont get the result until tonight though. Part of the break was to control my staking and my discipline, even though I've another week to go I really think its helped already. More relaxed. Its easy to get fed up with the day in day out horse routine, but a break always does you good, and more times than not it fixes a poor run of form, I'm going to come back with a new attitude. I think I was trying too hard before, like trying to win €150+ each day or whatever, €20 profit a day is fine, its brilliant sure. You win more when youre relaxed, when theres no pressure, when youre happy and when comfortable with youre staking. Why do England win against The West Indies, because their relaxed, no pressure, happy and comfortable with their game. Simple.

Havent had a bet on Betfair and that will continue. Shouldnt really have a bet over the next few days either unless one of APs is fancied. I did have a cricket bet with Bet365 on the Australia runs line, they put it a bit low purely because England scored so low. And got a call today, theres free money on the United v Chelsea game but I havent done it. To win on penaltys was 8/1 each of two with Blue Square, then lay the draw obviously. I havent done it but if I was at home I would, just cant be bothered over here and only have a small few quid in Betfair to stop me betting!

I'm gonna start my €25 rolling fotball bets on the first day of the season, will put it up somewhere on the side there, its only a bit of fun to stop me betting too big on it but I'll take it seriously because its whole bank every bet! See how long I can last anyway, starting with €25 its grand even if it goes wrong ten times during the season. I'll keep it to Betdaq only, be easier to keep track that way.

Holiday

Well yesterday turned out to be a non runner, Norths were 25-5 and Lancs were 1.06 during the first innings! I dont think I've ever seen such a short price, but there was nothing I could do, sticking to my rule of not betting while the first innings is on and well, basically the game was over anyway so I went out instead.

Its been on my mind lately that I've been avoiding Betfair, I'm picking everything and anything over sticking to a full days trading. I cant really put my finger on it, but its just a feeling of not looking forward to the days racing, I wake up and see theres Newton Abbot, Chepstow, Catterick and a poor Irish meeting on, it doesnt really get the juices flowing does it, theres no buzz to go through the form. And in running is so poor I struggle to win €20 each day, at the start of the challenge horse racing was in my P&L nearly every single day while I was in college, now I'm off and have all day yet it doesnt appear too often. I cant get matched in the place market anymore and I know if I make one mistake, lose €40, I cant make it back in a day. Whereas before I could be down €100 and confident of getting it back should I do the right things.

Obviously the markets have changed over time and you have to adjust to them, but avoiding Betfair whenever possible is hardly a good sign. I went to a charity dinner last night out in Kildare and they had a 10 day holiday for two up for bidding, I put in two cheeky bids more than anything, and ended up winning! So were off tomorrow for the next while and I think I'll take a complete break from gambling and come back hopefully refreshed and more interested in the day in day out Betfair routine.

I've taken out most of the funds and have just left €250 in the account, I've no idea what the story is with interent and pictures over there but at least with that much in the account it'll stop me having €300 on something I half fancy on Betfair mobile. I'm not planning on having a bet but given the chance I'm jump at being able to play the weekends GAA obviously. I'm sure I can post up a screen shot if I do manage to have a bet.

Hopefully the break away will get back a bit of hunger into doing well, last week in Goodwood my discipline went to pot. Came back and €300 on England wasnt the smartest bet, it may have been a good bet but €300 was too high in the circumstances. Just want to put things in a bit of perspective and appreciate how good my life is to be able to rely on Betfair and be my own boss, but just doing the same thing day in day out has me not enjoying it anymore. But a holiday will change that feeling I reckon, and a bit of thinking time to reflect on how lucky I am.

Apart from that, want to control my staking a bit more and maybe a break will help that too. Waking up to poor racing each day, I've just lost a bit of will-power to fully focus on my discipline, a €100 bet has become €200, a €200 has become €300 for no reason whatsoever. Maybe just need a bit of time not to think about gambling, but I love it, I just want to be more interested in whats on offer each day. Its hard to get a buzz from getting ready for sellers on the all weather etc, I'm better off having a staring contest with the cat some days.

I'll be home in time for the football season to start, and go back to college some time in September (not sure what date), and the Champion Stakes is on at the start of September too, thats the most important day of the year to some people, this year will be even more important if Sea The Stars takes on Fame And Glory. So this week is nearly the only time I can take a holiday, I've been gambling straight through the year and think I'm nearing a bit of a burnout, either that or its a midlife crisis!

Be back in 10 days a new man!

03/08/2009

Wont say too much, I posted up my position in the test yesterday and its ended up a draw in the end, no complaints I knew what I was taking on. Glad I was in Naas and didnt have to watch it though, would have died a slow death this afternoon. I was delighted Kerry beat Dublin though, made my day, even though it was too close to call for money on it, its so good to see Dublin get a thumping when they rough up all the little teams in Leinster then say they'll win the All Ireland, and then go and lose at the first hurdle after Leinster, it happens every year yet its still funny!

I took it easy all last week, played golf yesterday and went racing again today, so I'll have to have a serious days trading tomorrow no messing about, theres a Pro40 game on at half four and I'll do that. Maybe the horses for a while but maybe not, their a hard business these days, in running is terrible lately.

Cricket: -EUR318.64 | Gaelic Games: EUR21.96 Total P&L: -EUR296.68

02/08/2009

Didnt do too much today after flying back from Goodwood this morning, lumped on Tyrone to beat my beloved Kildare thinking we were going to get a hammering, we didnt, it was close! Thank god I was on the golf course at the time really I'd say I would have been pretty nervous when Kildare were four points up, Alex Ferguson knows the score going out golfing when something important is happening. I had €300 on them with Paddy Power and €100 on Betfair, but a far bigger bet away from the challenge on them too! I'm just thankful I didnt see what was happening, but I always thought Tyrone would win, but four points down I might have been thinking of going all red.

The cricket didnt go well yesterday and I was stuck with a 1.10 train. While I've just backed England in the third test, Australia two down already and I just reckon there'll be a bit of trading in the price tomorrow, if theres not I'll accept that and wont be too gutted. But the mornings have generally gone well for taking wickets for both teams so there might be a bit of panic tomorrow at some stage, I wont be going all red either. I've already said a few times I struggle with the time scale of test cricket and maybe its a bad bet but I think its worth the chance tomorrow, I was all red already so I'm a bit behind the market but England could trade odds on at some point tomorrow. Get an early wicket and get Clarke early (very important!) and I think England will win, but its getting those two wickets in time that might be the problem, and as well England dont have to win for me to win, they just have to make everyone think their gonna win! Ah sure we'll see tomorrow.







P&L last two days..
Cricket: -EUR232.18 | Gaelic Games: EUR40.08 Total P&L: -EUR192.10

Theres not too much I can say about this week, mainly because I havent been on Betfair too much but have kept in touch. Basically every day has been win on one sport and lose the same amount on another sport, a few silly bets and thats to be pretty much expected when youre not putting the resreach and timing into in it like I have this week. But for a week away I cant complain and I'm pretty much happy to be level!

Sky Sports Fantasy Football

Free to join on the Sky Sports website, I've set up a league called GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS, the pin is 13888. Youve 55 million to spend on 11 players, then put in the pin to join the league, you wont beat me though! The more join the better..

31/07/2009

Good day yesterday. Cricket went well but felt a bit of a mug looking at the results when I saw the ground in Galway was soft to heavy and I'd had €250 on Universal Truth. No way I would have had that much on if I had known it was soft, still in Goodwood and guessing what the ground was like. Easy after the race to say but just felt a bit of fool having the bet without knowing what the ground was like, this only occurred to me after he lost though.

In the third test, got rid of my Australia back quickly yesterday morning, quite lucky because it was the only session I could watch. Laid the draw at 1.45 and watched it go out but was too stubborn on go all green (level after Australia trade) looking at how short the draw still was, obviously theres weather factored in and I ended up having to go all red for €60ish for the time being. Fly back on Sunday!

Cricket: EUR266.01 | Horse Racing: -EUR250.00 Total P&L: EUR16.01