30/09/2009

Again a quiet day today, not much knocking around. Missed all the fuss in the Australia game while they were trading at 1.01, bounced out to 2.2 and there was all sorts happening, they needed 20 odd runs with 8 wickets already gone, with Pakistan flying. As I missed the 1.01 cruising version, I actually thought over evens was a cracking bet at the time with Lee there, wasnt without its worrying moments even then and was able to trade out fairly quickly, even after that there were dodgy moments so threw away a bit of green on Australia to get green on Pakistan. I think I caught the most exciting part of the game anyway! India v West Indies was a walkover so no betting there and again nothing doing on the horses, but delighted with a 25 quid profit for no more than 5 minutes work, I'd have liked longer so hopefully the semis are more even games.

Cricket: €24.75 Total P&L: €24.75

No football bank bets either tonight, thought Chelsea and United were a bit low given that United were playing a good team and Chelsea were away. Both won, rather be safe than sorry if I'm not 100% though, hard to get a read on Real Madrid in Europe too because they cant defend but are brilliant going forward. Anyway forget about the Champions League, if youve got a spare 5 minutes watch this bloke, hes unreal..

The Calm Before The Storm

I think I speak for not only myself but for anyone who follows international cricket when I say welcome back Engerland! All out inside the 50 overs for 146, all is back to normal in the world of cricket trading, I have to say I wasnt around for their innings so cant comment too much, sure they were already through anyway dont blame them for probably not being 100%, but its nice to have them back, it was weird watching them win games. Couldnt resist having 20 quid on them at 300/1 having been on the wrong end of a New Zealand collapse last week, one or two wickets fell and I laid my stake back at 100/1. Nothing lost, nothing gained. But with the Australia match being called off yesterday due to rain and me being in college while the horses are on, I've pretty much nothing to bet on. I'm starting to twitch. Well not really, but its all too calm, as the P&L shows down there, absolutely nothing happening.

So onto the storm, the weekend. Arc day at Longchamp Sunday. Fame And Glory is a certainty. Oh wait, Sea The Stars is running, bollocks. After much thoughtful horseman insight, a lot of shrewd brainpower and many cups of tea we have come up with the following plans today to win the arc..

PLAN A - Hope it rains.
PLAN B - Hope the course over water.
PLAN C - Hope John Oxx withdraws.
PLAN D - Hope the driver of Sea The Stars horsebox gets lost on the way over and hes late.
PLAN E - Hope to finish 2nd in the hope the french stewards dont like John Oxx.
PLAN F - Kidnap sea the stars (give him back on Monday).
PLAN G - Run 7 'pacemakers' and box him in. Obvious dangers with that, Lydia Hislop would be incandescent with rage.
PLAN H - Pray.

If that all fails, I think we'll go for the running as fast as you can for as long as possible idea and hope that Fame outstays him. Sure look, thats our only hope I reckon. Sea The Stars' followers will say hes the best and has no more questions to answer but if theres a tiny question still there its does he really strongly stay 1M4F with a gun at his head all the way, or is he 'as good' over 1M4F as he is at 1M2F. I've basically given up, sick of the sight of seeing his arse fly past all year, but we can only live in hope sure. Fame And Glory will run a massive race, but its just will that be good enough. I have to say fair play to AP anyway, we wont die wondering.

Weve also come up with a list of things to say to the BBC when asked. They are as follows..

PLAN A - "Ah sure listen Risshiee were more hopeful than confident." Translated - Rishi you silly tosser we only came over for the shopping and the French birds.
PLAN B - No plan B, who d'ya think we are, the GAA!

Even though AP tends to say "were more hopeful than confident" nearly every race, it pretty much sums up perfectly the weekend. As I said, he'll run a big race, its just whether it'll be good enough or not. I'm not having a bet anyway, just going to enjoy it, I'll still be the loudest person in the stands if Johnny hits the front. Which he will do at some stage, its just what MJ will be doing behind that'll be the problem. I have to say from a punting point of view, I'd wouldnt be backing Sea The Stars at 4/6 or shorter, Jesus like its an Arc after all. And people wont like the wording but I'm going to say it anyway because its true, they dodged the Irish Derby because of the trip. So there has to be some doubt. Straw clutching Stephen, I know. But they said "the ground" then ran on worse ground at Leopardstown, but again, pissed all over us and well done, but you know this is different.

It should be a fantastic weekend anyway, no pressure of expecting to win or the likes. Little amazing point for you, we knew the Arc date months ago so booked the flights for €1, I know they add on taxes but anyway, tickets into the track are around €6 - €8 but we got them for free. So if you think about it, its cheaper for us to fly all the way to Paris and go to the Arc, one of the best racing days all year, than it is to drive 20 minutes down the road to our local track, The Curragh, for Irish Derby day which is €40 in. Bit mental isnt it. I know hotels cost money but sure we havent booked that yet, hoping something comes up, B&B or something.

Speaking of money, €130 to go see Ireland play football in Croker, seriously? Thats a joke. I know you get two games, Italy and Montenegro. Bloody hell, who wants to see Montenegro anyway, so its €65 each game. €65 to see Italy beat us and €65 to see 0-0 against Montenegro, Jesus Christ. If four lads want to go out for the night thats over €500, we were planning on doing it but not now like. Thats an awful lot of money to see soccerkickhoofball.

Anyway back to betting, I won €3.32 backing Barca tonight to get the football bank going again. Only another €126.68 to go before I can afford to go to an Ireland game. Hopefully have a chance to win a few quid on some sport this week if theres any on at the times I'm in, leave for Paris on Friday afternoon, back Sunday night. By the way, anyone thinking of going back to college as a mature student, dont, its not worth it, only back two days and already have five assignments. This early morning and hard work craic isnt for me. I dont like the real world, I prefer to stay at home, where its warm and you can watch tv.

27/09/2009

Only just discovered if you put in your own dates to Betfairs P&L it pulls them up, learn something new every day man! Thats the last three days. Anyway, Rip Van Winkle and St Nicholas Abbey were really good results this weekend, for the challenge but more so personally. They were brilliant. St Nicholas Abbey has some amount of gears.

Not much else happened apart from that, lost a small few quid on cricket messing around while waiting to leave for the track etc, and got a bit lucky on the boxing too with Dunne getting beaten, didnt really have a strong view all this week but was just trying to guess the market, but the first move was €200 on Dunne. Same story on Friday night too but picked the winner that time, so it swings both ways.

Got a new college timetable this week, really like it, it'll most likely change again but I love this one. Have to be in 9 to 5 on a Monday but because I do so many hours that day, that basically leaves me with loads of time off the other days, meaning I should get home each day around 3ish. Fantastic. Means I can sort of carry on like normal, take Monday off and a couple of hours each day, sure it'd be just like going to the gym and playing golf during the summer. Except not fun.

I've only noticed last night that Paddy Power dont seem to like me anymore, I dont know what I've done either! All my accounts are limited now to €150 - €200ish range. Er, I think it was the Fame And Glory antepost Champion Stakes bet, but that lost? I've been limited with the Fallon bet, Rip and St Nic again today, dont really understand why if the horse lost but anyway. Cant have a proper moan because it wont affect me at all, most or if not all of my bets are around the €100 range, just when I want to have a real cut on one like this weekend, Powers isnt the place to go anymore.

Just watching the Saffers against Engerland here, its impossible to call, hence the early post, try to avoid getting involved but without betting I'm gonna say Saffers chase this down! I've also lost a good few quid on innings runs this week (New Zealand collapse), think I should avoid betting on it from now on in, its really hard you know I dont bet on the match odds while the first innings is on, and I have to kind of watch the game to see what the pitch/bowling is like, sometimes I get drawn in to betting on something. Which is a bad thing for discipline I know, lost €250 this week on innings runs markets while the overall loss in only €160ish, so I'd be in profit without it. Little stupid things always come back to me at the end of the week where I could have done better, probably being harsh at times but always looking to save a few quid.

24/09/2009

If I thought I was a "tad unlucky" yesterday, I was cursed today, New Zealand needed another 22 for my 225 line from 4 and a half overs or so with 5 wickets left, and in a powerplay. Cue a total and utter collapse getting 11/5 and not even finishing the overs. I wasnt even angry, I actually couldnt believe what I was watching, having a John McDermott moment of "whats wrong with me, what do I have to do win" wasnt near to having a cry like him though, but ah, I understand these things always happen, but why is it they always seem to happen in a row? Why it all comes in row and "the world is against me" moments creep in, no idea. Cant explain.

Anyway no worries, off into town to celebrate Arthurs Day, even though I dont drink Guinness, I do drink free drink, which is especially appreciated after the last two days I've had. Flying to London tomorrow, probably comes at a great time I suppose, just get away from the computer screen if I am getting a touch of "bad luck." Proper worried now I'm going to put the Indian sign on Rip Van Winkle but the flights booked so cant say no now. You'll Be Mines form didnt really stand up in Fairyhouse during the week but she was a good winner that day so she should still go into her race favourite. St Nicholas Abbey on Sunday is a "certainty," dont care what turns up against him, on what he does at home, hes unbeatable, for me. My favourite two year old, will be devastated if hes beaten.

Cricket: -€166.48 | Horse Racing: €1.05 Total P&L: -€165.43

Just been looking at the football bank and the rounds have gone so far like this:

Round 1, €81.18
Round 2, €29.75
Round 3, €291.89

All before coming unstuck, I've won plenty yet down €75. The awe-in each time doesnt really work, because at the end day I WILL lose at some point. So starting Round 4 with €25, and going to manage it now this time, as in not go all in each time, maybe €50 odd each game, if I can even get it over €50. At least that way one match doesnt break you. You start off with "only" €25 and its a bit of fun sure, but when you actually creep up over €200 and so on, its annoying to lose at the time. Then you think, well I only started with €25, but once youve won money it becomes yours, therefore it doesnt matter what you started with, its what you have after that matters. Anyway, a thumbs down to awe-in tactic, unless when betting at Old Trafford..

Football Bank Down The Swanee

Of all the teams to pick tonight, why did I hve to pick Man City. I'll tell you why, because Fulham had their reserves out and Man City were basically at full strength. 1-1. Disaster. There were no pictures of it, hence it not being in play, so had to listen to it on radio, City sounded shite anyway. I'm over the moon United didnt waste 25M on Tevez, he needs around 6 chances to score 1. One word for City tonight, toothless. One word for me tonight, seething. Their playing extra time at the moment, but I hope they lose now anyway, not bitter at all eh! I knew Round 3 was going to end some time and it was a good run, but at home to fulham reserves, fook sake.

Anyway, was a tad unlucky with my Darren Sammy bet today. He outscored the whole top order only to be beaten himself by the bloke batting at 9, he was at 7. Not really unlucky because you know he had every chance himself, he was got out to an absolute peach so no blame to him from me anyway. Just to do better than the top order and then for a number 9 to beat you was a bit gutting, that was the highest score that bloke has got ever too. And he had the powerplay and a bit free swinging because there was so little wickets left. He had 9 more runs to make after Sammy went, they were batting together for a good while. No complaints just gutted, very near to collecting €1,200.

I felt absolutely gutted at the time seriously. Went for a run this evening and was thinking, you know Harry Findlays idea of confidence and the backing 2.1s, 5 win 5 lose but that bloke has more confidence than the bloke who backs 10/1 shots, both win the same amount but the bloke who backs the favourites has more confidence and is happier overall. I reckon hes totally right. From my point of view, I'd hate to have that feeling I had today 11 times out of 12, and even though you havent lost any money over the period of time, it would be terrible for your mental side of things to have to stick through the 11 losers. As is always the way you know, €100 at 12/1 and your eyes light up, you think its on, it was evens each of two when they were batting together which one would go furthest, and I had one at 12/1, what value, you cant buy food from value though can you.

I know backing "value only bets" appeals to most, but honestly I'd rather back a winner at 1/3 than a "good" loser at 20/1. I dont know how you explain it, values important yeah, but the overall idea is to win, you dont get paid unless it wins. So winning must come before value mustnt it? Interesting one. I lay an awful lot of low prices on cricket, backing 100/1 plus at times, is that value to me at the time I do it? Honest answer, I dont know, I do it because I think the odds will drop and I can trade. Is that value? Or is that knowing what to do in a certain situation? Sometimes I look at the odds and shake my head thinking "everyones gone mad" but like, if my view is wrong and I lose, well then wasnt I wrong and everyone else right? I lost money and they won, simple.

Like you know, if someone said to you they'd give you 1000/1 on Sea The Stars against Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next week, would you back it? Is it value - two horse race, almost certainly yes. Will it win - no chance, unless John Oxx has been schooling him secretly over fences! So, youre getting fantastic value but at the same time youre gonna lose, whats the right thing to do then? You dont wanna lose money. But you wanna back the value.

Really and truly, is there such thing as "value." Not really, someones opinion of "great value" might be a great lay to someone else. Heres one, if everyone agreed on something there would be no markets for anything because we'd all back the same thing. So whats value? Value, to me, is a fancy word someone came up with for people to use when they think something is a good bet, you say it to sound smart and to seem like you know what youre talking about, we all do it lets be honest I do it too. Value is something we say to ourselves, in our heads, that were "happy" with our bet, win or lose sometimes, and everyones different. RUK for €20 a month is value to me, whereas some people wont pay it. I see all the races, they dont but are €20 better off, whos right? I spend €50 on a shirt that I think looks sexy, I'm a sexy bastard anyway, but the bloke across the road thinks I look like a queer wearing it, whos right? I'm happy in my shirt, so that makes it value to me, but not him, so theres never a full 100% definition of value on anything. You bet on something because you think its going to win, end of story. And trading, you back/lay because you think the odds will move your way, end of story.

Somehow anyway, without doing much at all, without spending even an hour at a computer today, I've gone and lost €400, biggest loss in weeks. C'est la vie. Football bank back to €25 and start again Round 4. And will try not let today affect confidence and thinking plans going into tomorrow. Be hard enough mind. What bet was the football bank, bet number 13, ooooh! I thought all that stuff was nonsense when I was typing it out, why is it whenever you think something is jinxed/cursed it turns out to be? Positive mental thinking man. Or your bets doomed! By the way, won a fiver on Betfair today.

Cricket: €4.76 Total P&L: €4.76

Darren Sammy - Top West Indies Batsman

Match Odds: Pakistan 1.12 v West Indies 8.8, bit of a shocker.

West Indies (probable) 1 Dale Richards, 2 Andre Fletcher, 3 Devon Smith, 4 Travis Dowlin, 5 Floyd Reifer (capt), 6 Kieran Powerll, 7 David Bernard, 8 Chadwick Walton (wk), 9 Darren Sammy, 10 Kemar Roach, 11 Nikita Miller.

Without sounding a bit mean to The West Indies, they are shite. Most people know I love them really and as much as they annoy me, they are my favourite team, no idea why because they couldnt seem to give a toss half the time. But anyway, this team isnt even the 2nd team, its the 3rd team they have been sent over. And they are pants.

I've watched them play a little bit against Bangladesh and came to the view that, their bowling will go around the park and their batting will be all out fairly quickly, might get to 200 or so but that'll be tops. I will not under any circumstances have a liability of over €50 on them at any point in the whole tournament. This is fact!

Anyway, not much doing in the match odds as theres only one winner bar a massive collapse from Pakistan, one bet really caught my eye this evening flicking through the lesser markets. Darren Sammy to be top West Indies Batsman at 12/1. Thats massive surely? Hes the only one that can really play a bit in that team, hes down at 9 in the way the team are named there but surely he'll bat higher. Hes by far the best player in the team, hes probably the only one can will come out of this with a bit of pride.

The one worry I have for the bet is, the Pakistan seamers arent too great so its highly likely the opening batsmen could get quick runs. Having said that they arent good enough to score a 100 really, so would be looking at around 50. From what I saw of Fletcher he doesnt seem the type to bat long. Dale Richards is the one that scares me a bit having read this: "He is naturally aggressive and is pretty good against pace bowling, but still faces the criticism that he fails to convert his starts. This tournament presents a great opportunity to showcase his talent."

He might get the easiest runs against the Pakistan openers but even still the failing to convert part gives me hope of him being like the rest of them. Sure look, its a bit of a mugs bet when all is said and done, but Darren Sammy 12/1, hes the best player in the team for gods sake. Well worth €100, and a little more in the shops in the morning, bookies dont really like these type of bets, the max allowed was €150, which suits me grand and handy.

Without putting the Indian sign on him, go on I'll say it, hes a fooking certainty!

Joking aside, he should be well up there, he'll definitely bat anyway even if they have him at 11 (they wont) because this shower wont even last the 50 overs so he should get a good crack at getting a 50. I reckon he'll bat at 5/6/7, he scores quickly and got a 50 in the warm up game the weekend so hes in good touch. Hopefully they might even take the 2nd batting powerplay when hes in, might be around that time, who knows with this lot. Hes there best player by a country mile though, as I said well worth €100 at 12/1.

For anyone thats a bit insane and thinking of following, my er, advice, hes 14/1 with Totesport, they wont let me bet, but if you were to take money off them it would feel as good as a winner to me you know. Now, cue him being out first ball.

And Then It Rained

This match feels like hours ago but it only just happened. The runs to balls gap was around 30 - 40 at the time, Van Der Merwe and Morkel came together in a powerplay with 13 overs to go and that was my book! Now, I dont think the Saffers would have won, maybe, I dont know, but I'm fairly sure I would have seen 1.15 - 1.25 again (it was 1.05ish) with those two there. Then it lashed rain and I had to lay 290 to get a few quid out of it for all my green. Happy to win but would have loved the game to finish without D/L, who knows what might of been with those two knocking it around. Won a few quid on the innings runs to go along with the match market. Aside from today, I've never looked forward to a cricket match as such as I'm looking forward to Sri Lanka playing England on Friday, Sri Lanka bat first, they'll set a world record score against Englands bowling attack if Dilshan gets going.

Backed Barca with the football bank too, delighted to win as much as I did when I had college today and all, it can be done! Bought the new Jay-Z album, The Blueprint 3, on the way home, its unreal. Best album I've bought in ages actually, only listened to each song once but Empire State Of Mind (feat. Alicia Keys) is already by far my favourite, worth a listen on youtube.

Cricket: €108.95 Total P&L: €108.95

Lisbon Treaty Ireland

Now, before reading any further, let me say this - I know very little about politics. Thats probably an understatement too! This is all gambling logic.

A no vote Lisbon is massive at 9/2, I cant sit here and not back it. We voted no last time and this time it really is honestly 50-50, the general feeling is its too close to call, everyone you talk to will have an idea of what there voting, but none of them can actually properly explain what were voting on. Theres too much clouding of the issue, which leads to confusion, which leads to doubt, which leads to people saying no. Its like when you ask a woman to marry you, if shes not 100% sure youre rich shes always that little less likely to say yes. Only joking. Women are great.

Sure look it could be yes, it could be no, I dont know. But 9/2 is massive for something which is near enough a nailed on 50-50 chance. In all the latest local polls its showing the results at 55-45 for either side swinging around, not counting the undecided votes. The latest poll today carried out showed the no side ahead 59% to 41% (over 200 posts on politics.ie about it), these things change every day like I suppose, but surely for something that changes so often and people are unsure of should be a little closer to 1/8 yes and 9/2 no.

Theres also a huge possibility that this could turn into a vote on the government, which no one seems to like at the moment as everyones having a moan, obviously the government have very little if anything to do with the vote, nothing actually, but with them pushing a yes vote so much, it could end up the people saying no just to go against them. You know theres a lot of things that could happen but it'll surely be close come Friday week.

Anyway, not that I'd ever try to manipulate a person in to voting no to Lisbon, but if we all back 9/2 with our friends at Paddy Power and then vote no, sure we'd make a few quid out of it wouldnt we? We could all have a few drinks afterwards with the winnings, sure it'd be great craic. I'm off to recruit in the morning!

One last point, you know the way were having another vote "in case we meant yes" because we voted no the last time, if yes does indeed pass this time, can we have another vote in case we really meant no?

Last Day Of Freedom

And its a losing one! It wasnt the worst day I've ever had now, just one mistake (-€130) at Kempton cost me, well I actually wouldnt call it a mistake like I just laid the winner, and its only a mistake cause the horse won. Cant say I'm that annoyed, these things are always going to happen when you play in running. I reckon I had my angles mixed up, and hence laid it at too big a price than I should of, cant say I like Kempton really, every race seems to turn into a sprint from the home bend and everything happens quickly. No complaints with the bet though, I have to say after it happened I was pleased with how I came back, I basically said to myself theres zero chance of winning back €130 in running on a Monday, in Ballinrobe the pictures were flicking on and off, Leicester was on ATR, Hamilton clashed with Ballinrobe if it was a 3 miler and Kempton had already scared me off. I just played normally as if the loss never happened, no idea why or how I got into that mental state, suppose it just depends on what mood youre in at the time. Accepting things ("shit happens") tends to help me an awful lot. Cant win 'em all.

Mr Murtagh returns tomorrow to ride in Fairyhouse, while I return to the humble surroundings of college at 12 bells, at least its not 9-00! I'd have liked for there to be more sport on today for my last hurrah if you like but I suppose you can only work with what youre given, shame theres no cricket tonight though. Cant say I know much about Johnnys rides tomorrow, couldnt even tell you if hes 100% race fit, I dont know, but hes been riding work anyway. I'm really looking forward to seeing a Prendergast horse tomorrow, Hedaaya in the 3-25, she finished 2nd to You'll Be Mine at Leopardstown last time so be interesting to see how the form works out, be disappointed if she couldnt win that race.

And Rip Van Winkle is going really well, he'll take an awful lot of beating on Saturday, trying to get on a flight that has me coming back that night because the Goffs Million is on Sunday, its turning out to be a fair bit of hassle though. Hes a bit of a hooer in that hes always been amazing at home so that doesnt make him a certainty, I've learned this through the wallet, but I reckon Johnnys worked out how to ride him probably now since Goodwood, the only small worry would be does that set up the race for Delegator to swoop past late on if Rip goes early. Thats the only question, but sure look I've ever rated Delegator and would be majorly gutted if Rip wasnt good enough to beat him, not worried about anything else either.

Horse Racing: -€87.72 Total P&L: -€87.72

Dont know if anyones a fan of Danehill Dancer or not but you should like this if you are, got sent a photo of him from Coolmore Australia yesterday, he looks fantastic, its as if he thinks he owns the place and hes guarding whats going on in the photo. Its Coolmore Australias most busy time of the year around this time. In the pictures, theres one of the landscape from the office, the place is looking in great nick, who wouldnt want to be a horse. I actually only just remembered from looking at the photo that the whole place flooded and was under water this time in 2007, managed to dig out a couple of photos of it too, the last two.

It happened so fast that the horses were stuck out in it too, the lads had to paddle out in a boat and somehow attach the bridles to the boat to lead them to dry ground. The 3rd photo is them coming out of the water, but if you look in the right background you'll see the white roof, thats the roof on the barn! Anyone thats been in a barn will know how high they actually are from the stable doors etc, so you can picture how much the water level was over the horses heads out in the paddocks and how well everyone did to save them. Its nice everyone was alright in the end and we can joke about it you know, not only did AP teach them how to win a Group 1 but he also had them Champion swimmers too, what a man. I'll tell ya something though, its a far cry from being helped around a pool by two blokes in Tipperary to trying not to sink for your life in the middle of Australia!

20/09/2009

Boxing: €71.40 | Cricket: €53.34 | Gaelic Games: -€11.98 Total P&L: €112.76

Really delighted with today, cant say I did much at all, didnt get to bed this morning until around half 6 with the Mayweather fight, then laughing at the interview after for a good half an hour. Mayweather is the daddy though, absolutely unreal. Well worth staying up and hes just amazing to look at, not everyones cut of tea but I like him, the way he goes on adds a bit of interest to it, I think hes funny. Afterwards, the bloke who interviewed him was a tosser, fact! And the commentator continuously saying "lovely jabs there" was also a highlight, 5 o'clock in the morning, these are the things that keep you going.

Didnt resurface until around 2-15ish so missed what happened to Australia, England were certainties to chase down 177 but I didnt have the bottle to back them, they are England after all like, got a good trade out of backing Australia at 100/1+ knowing that England never win without making it a little difficult and losing a few wickets, was happily €50ish all green. No other team in the world would be still available to back at 1.01 when they needed 10 runs from over 60 balls. Anyway, 1-6 to the Engerland.

Mickey Owen scoring in Fergie time, er I mean injury time, at Old Trafford was fantastic as well. I knew he had it in him. I'd like to think I played my part in todays victory, it was only last week I took Owen and Fletcher out of my fantasy team. Awful lot of nonsense waffled on about the "extra time" sure look a team still has to score, defend until the whistle or its your own fault. Two goals and a sub, I could see where they got the extra bit of time from. Anyway, "4mins ET" means play until United score, I thought everyone knew that? I loved when they showed Fergie laughing with the 4th official after the goal, with Sparky in the background seething.

Couldnt get a handle on the All Ireland final at all today, pretty happy to only lose an odd tenner as I had liabilities of over €100 on both teams at some stage during the match. Couldnt really make my mind up. I thought Cork were the "better" side, i.e. had more chances and more of the ball. But they missed an awful lot of easy chances, and exactly the way the hurling was, when Kerry got a chance they put it over. It was hard to trade you know, Cork would be all over them for 10 minutes, have 5 chances and not score, Kerry would have one chance and then score. Thats the class I suppose. Its amazing how much experience counts in a final. The best team won in the end sure.

Again like last week, absolutely delighted with how this week went, been a great week and enjoyed every day. Only one sizable loss, €250 on the Aussies runs market, apart from that no complaints and an easy week. Confidence was up and as I said had a really good time, thats all that matters really I reckon, if you enjoy something youre far more likely to do well at it. The one thing I didnt like was the football bet on Betfair, that was disappointing, thats what the Betdaq bank is for, wont happen again though. Betdaq football bank is up to €222.22 now with Real and Barca winning. College starts on Tuesday so I suppose things will change massively but at least I'm in good form so hopefully can keep it going with the limited time on offer.

19/09/2009

Pretty much a nothing day today, won €60 on innings runs and lost it on the match market. The most annoying thing was a wicket fell the very next ball I backed the team batting, the minute it came up as matched I looked up from the screen and bam kaput, no way back, price never even got close to where I laid it. It happens.

Yesterday I wasnt good enough on the horses. Happy to win as always but a tad disappointed it wasnt more to be honest. I was given every chance, the 3 meetings were on RUK and we had a live feed on the Irish channel from Listowel, so in terms of what I was given I did poorly, that Friday afternoon feeling basically the whole day, never got out of 1st gear. If all the meetings were on ATR I'd be delighted with €18, and it could of been worse I could have lost, but I was given absolutely every chance of winning more than I did and I didnt use it well, its not often you get a whole day of fast pictures.

Arsenal won to get the football bank up to €155.08, so delighted with that up to bet number 10 next, it'll go kaput at some stage but its nice to get a good run going. Waiting to see the Barca team sheet, might back them tonight, that donkey Ibrahimovic will probably have me seething if I do though, I've been trying to avoid Barca so far this year, he was the worse transfer of all time, €40M plus Eto'o, terrible. They should win at home though, will more than likely back them if Messi starts.

And have €300 on Mayweather tonight, that'll be the only bet on Betfair for the rest of the day. Looking forward to tomorrow already, the Aussies should go 7-0 and that will be the first time its ever been done. And we have the All Ireland final in Croker, I'm going for Cork but no money on it until it goes in running, cant really write off Kerry but I'd question their form, you know they only beat Dublin while looking good, and the only reason Coca Cola set up in Dublin is because they watched the GAA Championships and saw how good Dublin people were at bottling things, d'ya like it, yeah ya do!

Cork are a good side, their young though so probably have a few nerves and Kerry will start fast I reckon, but if the Cork turn up that have been playing the way they have all year then I'd say they'll win handy. But as the odds basically suggest, too close to call until we see the first few minutes.

Gutted

Australia finish on 296. As you can see from the prices I was going against the general feeling but bloody hell I had them getting around 330+ at one stage. I'm absolutely seething. Tim Paine slowing down when he was in the 90s cost me massively, and cost Australia from getting a big total, he faced 17 balls between 90 and 100, what a tosser. While Hussey is hitting 4s freely at the time down the other end, Paine put him under pressure that wasnt needed and slowed down everything for 3 or 4 overs, Hussey got out due to the pressure of looking for runs, and then Paine after taking so long got out himself. White and Hopes were brilliant at the end, I was expecting that really with the powerplay though, if they'd be still there at the end they would have easily got past 300, no blame on them though they were doing their job with only 3 or so overs left trying to whack it.

Seriously disappointed with that result. Will England chase it down? Possibly so but going on them being England you'd say no. I had Australia around 30 runs short so if it was any other team in the world I'd probably lay Australia at 1.28 for my max bet, which is fairly short, but its England here. They cant be trusted with anything. Under lights I'd say 300 is about par on this pitch, Englands massive problem now is they have to start fast without losing wickets and score at the rate in the middle overs, which they never do. Cue a slow start letting the rate get up, lose one or two wickets, score at 4 runs an over when the rate is 6.5ish and going up, thats what normally happens anyway.

All things considered, no bet from here, cant even get the opening powerplay bounce out laying Australia at 1.28 because you know England will start slowish and Lee will be bowling too. Think England should get near the total but obviously dont trust them in the slightest, if England had posted 296 and Australia were chasing it'd be max bet on Australia wouldnt it. England keep up with the rate they have every chance, just they cant seem to do it, remember theyve traded odds on in every ODI so far at some stage without winning one.

This was the overs to go, Paine slowing down the scoring with 13, 12, 11, 10, 9 to go. I am seething.

16/09/2009

Havent seen any football tonight only the highlights, went to cinema instead, so much for exciting Champions League football eh! Liverpool only 1-0 against a poor team, looking at the highlights here on sky, its all I can go off, but they were shite. Liverpool seriously annoy me in the sense that they make awful hard work of games they should win yet when they come up against good teams, you'll look at the odds and say nah not backing them, yet they'll sneak a 1-0 or a 2-1 playing well, or maybe get a late penalty off a 7.8 rated drama dive off Stevie G. If they were a horse they would definitely have the timeform squiggle. I think I should just draw a line through them for the football bank bets, I dont know, as I said they make easy games hard yet win the hard games no one thinks they will, which is terrible in the gambling sense of things.

I'm also really, really, really gutted I had bets on overs and unders on a few games today before going out. I'm seriously annoyed like, no discipline. I said I wouldnt bet on football, I cant make it pay, and here I am again. I'm happy it was "only" €65 and not maybe €200, I suppose its a cheap lesson and a kick in the stomach to remind me not to bet on football. I know I cant make it pay yet bet on it, thats why I'm so annoyed. And more so because the rolling football Betdaq bank was supposed to stop this, thats most frustrating thing you know, because I know shouldnt be doing it. The soccerhoofkickball is a mugs game. Anyway, the football bank round 3 is still going with Liverpool winning so its not all bad.

Chose not to head down to Listowel today, instead decided to spend the day watching it with my grandad, he thought me basically everything I know about gambling. Jesus Christ though hes never bet in running, doesnt really know anything about Betfair, yet we were sitting there watching it and he just about called the winner of every race about 5F out. I was sitting there in shock. At listowel he called a favourite as "beaten" while still trading at 1.7ish, another Ruby horse as "going nowhere" when he was a good second, the mans a genius. Anyone can call a race I know, but these were proper against the general market feeling type of thing. Always nice to spend a birra time with him and watch the racing now hes too old to go and walk around for the whole day, always try to spend one afternoon with him a week at the very least. Missed out on going to Listowel though and watched the lads get stuck into Von Jawlensky and missed a winner, say it was some craic down there too on national day. But anyway I know I have my priorities right sitting where I was.

Mr Carberry told my grandad this morning to have a few quid on him in the national and he was nearly right, at 16/1 and all. I reckon if he hadnt of hit the last he'd have won, or at least pushed it to a photo. The horse was always going all the way to the line anyway. Me like a sap backed him just to win when he said each way. And why I had more on him than Von Jawlensky I've no idea, maybe got a bit over keen because it was the big race or something, I dont know, very nearly collecting €3,000 anyway! The cricket was just going red for a few ticks at the time of leaving for the cinema, nothing major, the team I was against at the time won in the end so probably saved me money, whether they traded at a higher price or not I dont know.

It was a pretty average betting day basically, but important for me to get a kick up the arse to stay away from football. Speaking of sore arses, Mr Murtaghs pain in the arse is improving all the time he says and he should be back riding fairly soonish, no rush anyway I said. How in gods name he was able to ride at the weekend I've no idea, we were in different places each day but he could barely walk yesterday. If he gave a horse a bad ride that explains it for you anyway, as I said hes a pain in the arse for everyone else some days so to experience himself is only fair. I'm not taking the piss with a "pain in the arse" either by the way, thats being serious. He says it was the fall in Dundalk, I say the wife should stop spanking him.

Cricket: -€15.30 | Horse Racing: €30.56 | Soccer: -€65.00 Total P&L: -€49.74

I'll sort out a screen shot from Betdaq for the football bank the weekend, only been scratching around with low prices lately so theres no real need for one every day to show you I won another €3, whos the daddy! Heard this song in Eddie Rockets in Dundrum tonight, you'll probably hate it, but I'm hooked anyway..

15/09/2009

Simple day. Got up at 12-30. Admired ones self in the mirror. Had breakfast. Seen England won the toss and decided to bat. Made a mental note to back Australia to chase down the total. Went to the gym. Admired ones self in the mirror again. Had a shower. Backed Australia. Listened to is this the way to amarillo while laughing at Englands fielding. Collected. This gambling lark is easy innit man! All this done and my horoscope on facebook this morning said I'd have an awful day and be unfortunate with my career. Fooking have it Mystic Meg!

Joking aside, why in the blue hell were Australia 2.5 to chase down 300 on a flat pitch? Why was there so much resistance to the flip flop when Ponting and Clarke were going so well? And why were England pushed down to under 1.55 when Australia lost their openers, did people not know what was coming behind? Amazing.

I know logic tends to fly out the window when the mighty Engerland are playing, BUT a little bit of research goes a long way, Worcestershire chased down 283 on this very pitch over 40 overs only a number of days ago, add a few runs for an extra 10 overs and take away a few because its international cricket and bam you have a par score. Australia started the game at around 1.6, yet 2.5 to chase par. Its amazing, people are too busy having orgasms over England making 299 to remember a stupid little Pro40 game. I'm not allowed post on the Betfair forum but I can read it, one post mentioned this fact in over 2,300. Why? Lots of bias towards England obviously I understand that but the comments like "300 is massive" and "300s not chased down under lights." I dont blame people for thinking England would win like, because 300 was a fair target everything said you know takes a bit of getting, but the market was miles off where it should have been, I've actually never seen the odds so wrong in all my days on Betfair.

All that said if Ponting had gone early it would have been kaput I reckon, or at least close to it. He was fantastic, he is the daddy! But Englands bowlers are pants, none of them are scary to face, none of them look like taking a wicket. Add to this fact that the Australians batting lineup is class looking all the way down basically, massive difference in their bowling without Lee though it has to be said. No idea why the market was so in favour of England tonight, I was happy with my chart going along in the chase at almost every point. But then again you know, I do see things differently to everyone else at times, still once I'm happy with things thats all I need really.

Cricket: €391.45 Total P&L: €391.45

It was really sad to hear about Darren Sutherland this morning, never seen him in person but looking at him on tv and youtube he seemed a really nice bloke. You know what do you say, what makes a person do that I've no idea, it must be awful for the family and people close to him, so many questions and will never have closure. We might all have our bad days and bad feelings but its nothing compared to what some people have to go through in their head I suppose, I read somewhere today that he had suffered from depression before but boxing had got him out of it. I also heard Frank Moloney had a minor heart attack when he found him, what a sad story, its absolutely terrible.

RIP Darren

14/09/2009

It was half one in the morning and I was standing in the middle of the room shouting at two blokes with rackets hitting a small yellow ball to each other for the last few hours, I think I'll start with that when I eventually visit gamblers anonymous, what you reckon? Seriously, what a match. €400 on Federer wasnt the smartest thing I've ever done but laying off at 1.06 certainly was.







Delighted with it at the time, so much so that I was afraid to touch my book after it went 1-1. Mainly because of what had happened today. Shocker on the horses, first race and €40 odd down it was a long way back. Its really hard to play when you get behind early for fear of making it worse, I'm always careful not to chase but its human nature to want the money back as quickly as possible, it tends to ruin how I play because I'm fearful of making it worse rather than better. It was the only race I played anyway with my position on the cricket at the time.

Now, no real complaints before I harp on about what happened. Just a gutted feeling after the event. I somehow convinced myself Sri Lanka were going to win while India were still trading at 1.25, how this happened I've no idea but anyway. My book looked like this after a bit of trading throughout..









I'm sure there'll be plenty of traders screaming what a tosser for not going all green, but I cant explain it myself, thats how I felt after the event - I wanted to have gone all green. But its always easy after the event isnt it, I was just disappointed. Youre sitting here thinking why didnt I go all green while looking at the price go down to 1.01, while this only occurs to you when the price is 1.01, because it never occurred to me at 1.25, what a position, disaster. I suppose naturally I'll always be a gambler at heart and love a run chase, I dont know, countless times I get myself into these positions only to not "cash in" let it run and it all goes kaput. You'd think I'd have learned by now like. I was certain they'd chase it down though, 80 needed off 60, I'd take that every time. I really need to work on the actual "trading" part of my betting though. I have no words to describe why I do it, it wont change either because it seems to happen again and again.

Its horrible fighting the market when India are playing though, most of the money in the market comes from India so naturally its going on them. Which totally leads to false prices sometimes, take this for example - Sri Lanka need 6.1 runs an over to keep with the rate and the India price is at 1.18, Sri lanka get 10 runs off the next over - India price goes to 1.2, then Sri Lanka get 3 runs off the next over - India price goes to 1.15, Sri Lanka have scored 13 runs in 2 overs keeping up with the rate yet the India price drops just because of the way its happened. Its awful, obviously the market corrects itself in time, but this is my massive problem when greening up, I was never greening up because I thought India should be higher at every point. But then, it gets to the stage when you say, well when does value outweigh the getting rid of liabilities you might have or actually cashing in some green. I naturally look to let it run because I love a run chase but you have to say to yourself money is money, I never hear this little voice until after the event though.

Anyway, some things never change. Went for pizza and didnt play the second game because the head was gone. Was absolutely delighted with the tennis profit after to make it a winning day. Looking at the graph below of Federer, my little moan about not greening up is a drop in the ocean compared to the sums traded at short prices for some people. Hopefully they got out of it alive.

Cricket: -€4.75 | Horse Racing: -€43.53 | Tennis: €69.50 Total P&L: €21.22

13/09/2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlxA9N5079U
It comes up mental looking on the blog when I try to have it here, so you'll have to click on that to see the Derby final.

No matter how many times I watch it I still smile seeing College Causeway going down the back straight. It was the best Derby night I've ever been to by miles, the crowd was immense. The noise at the 3rd bend and then at the last to the finish, I've ever heard anything like it, it was amazing. Hairs on the back of the neck stuff like. An absolute pleasure to be there to see him win, it was as if every single person backed him too. Unbeaten in all the rounds, and a track record to boot. An aeroplane.

Been nursing an awful hangover all day today so done nothing but lie on the couch, lost an odd tenner on the cricket and won an odd fiver on the GAA messing about. Yesterday I did a lot more good work though, but Alfred knocked me back to level after he lost, he went from cruising to reverse fairly quickly, probably the last run left its mark and we wont see him until next year, I'd like to watch him on his first run next year before backing him again too. Chinese White put me well ahead before that though, and it was sad to see Yeats finish last but I think everyone knew it was on the cards alright. Apart from going up and down at The Curragh, the only real result of substance over the weekend was College Causeway.

P&L last two days..
Cricket: -€12.41 | Gaelic Games: €5.90 | Greyhound Racing: €99.39 | Horse Racing: €13.51 Total P&L: €106.39

Been another winning week overall, if not much, it was seriously knocked back by the boxing result (-€140), the great Notts collapse of 2009 (-€165) and losing €90 on another insane game of cricket. Apart from that no other loses, bar a few on the horses but turned out to be a winning/level day you know. If I could cut out the loses it'd be fantastic but I suppose theres no way of doing that, just feel more than a tad unlucky this week with whats happened with the three of them, the boxing was terrible, I was robbed! Anyway, alls well that ends well. Good bit of sport on this evening but just gonna settle down and catch up on x-factor recorded from last night instead, I get to bet on the shows in a few weeks so it goes towards research you know, I'm basically been made watch it here so I might as well put it to some use, cue -€500 appearing under "specials" next week! Watch this space.

I've Just Been Mugged

Was anyone just watching the boxing, McDermott v Fury? Oh. My. Fooking. God. Er, I dont know what to say. As Jim Watts said on sky "has the ref got the names mixed up" Fury by 6 rounds? Please. If it had of been 1 round maybe you know, but ah here 6? Fair played to a man as respected as Jim Watts to say what he said. Fury started the fight at 1.18 but wasnt doing at all well, I had him 3 rounds down after 3 and laid 1.4ish, wanted to lay more at evens after the 5th round but had my fill already with the days cricket profit. I'm shocked I actually lost. I've been mugged!

And so has everyone else, look at the graph below. Should I have greened out? Well you know easy after it, but no for me, McDermott was 4 rounds ahead, ahead on skys cards, everyone at ringside and David Haye who they just interviewed for good measure. I'd normally be seething but I'm not even seething because its such a farce? I'm speechless. Never seen such a fix like it. Ever. Sorry for calling it a fix, but anyone who watched it will know. Cant actually believe it, the ref scored it in a way that McDermott only won 2 rounds. Impossible. He was in the ring, what the fook was he watching? See, I'm not seething!

Boxing: -€139.65 | Cricket: €149.75 Total P&L: €10.10

Seriously, I think the graph speaks volumes about how the fight went. We cant all be wrong surely. If you lose, you lose you know, but not this way.

10/09/2009

Missed Purple Hearts race in Tipperary because the weather so was good today I went for a round of golf, heard he finished 4th and was calling him all sorts of names on the 8th tee at the time, but having watched the race back online I'd give him another chance. Its difficult to get a proper read of the race watching it on the computer, but I said this morning hes a horse that doesnt go through the gears quickly, so where Johnny got the idea that coming from behind a wall of horses with a couple of furlongs to go would work from I've no idea. He did get a gap on the outside at one stage but as I said he hasnt got the quick change of gear to race like that. Making ground late on hands and heels was a tad annoying too, no idea whether he would have won or not if he'd have made the running mind, but worth another chance I reckon.

I was having a moan yesterday afternoon about being minus a Murtagh at The Curragh the weekend in favour of a seriously poor looking English Leger, but sure if he rode Yeats like Purple Heart he wouldnt win either. I fear for Yeats the weekend though, the Leger is hardly his type of race and hes been beaten in it a good few times, my head says Alandi but its a no bet for me, cant bet against the daddy! Seriously looking forward to Alfred Nobel however, I take on board Kingsfort won the best maiden run in Ireland this year very impressively, but at joint favourites, gimme the Group 1 winner over the maiden winner please.

Johnnys picked Viscount Nelson over Await The Dawn too in Doncaster for Saturday. I wonder. Basically, no idea whether hes right or not. Viscount Nelson works like a machine but hasnt impressed on the track at all, I've lumped on at short odds the last twice and been nervous in the last furlong. Await The Dawn wasnt fancied too much first time out and would come on massively for the run, still went and won so utterly impressively over 1M in Naas. Nothing behind bar the 2nd though, who was a stablemate, whos won since. But it'll be interesting to see how the English ring prices up the "second string" it is a killer however theres only 7 runners so that rules out most of the good in an each way bet. Emperor Claudius is no mug either, be disappointed if one of them didnt win that race or at least finish a close 2nd, although the trip looks short enough for all of them. Ones to watch for certain, especially Await The Dawn.

The cricket this evening was as simple as it could be, Gloucestershire were clearly short of par getting 172, so just backed Yorkshire at 1.34 to chase it down (RRR was 4.3), straight bet whatever happened I said before I done it, no trading. Wouldnt mind but I'm lying here on the couch with a blanket unable to move never mind trade cricket after the first round of golf in weeks.

Cricket: €97.94 | Horse Racing: -€34.91 Total P&L: €63.03

Tipperary Thursday (Currently +13.88pts)

Good enough card for a Thursday evening and pleased they got the go ahead this morning. Only going to talk about one race here and thats the 4-55.

Purple Heart let an awful amount of people down on his last run at Gowran. Luckily enough I was on holidays at the time so I dont hate the horse yet. He still has to answer the question of does he want to win looking at that race, but he did look green at the same time and maybe hes just a slow learner, reading the RP in bed this morning they seem to basically say the same thing although add that he has a high head carriage.

That race has actually worked out seriously well since, I've always liked Mister Tee and he ran a cracker since that race finishing 2nd to Cape Blanco in the futurity and then winning easily in Dundalk, against no one good but won anyway. Sebastian Flyte who won the race in Gowran finished a good 3rd in a Group 3 at The Curragh on ground he would have hated so the form is pretty solid looking.

The main opposition today appears to be Bygone Age for Weld and Reggae Rock for Ger Lyons. Having gone through their form, I dont see Bygone Age beating Purple Heart and would give up on Purple Heart if that happened to be honest. So the main danger I see is Reggae Rock, although he seemed to take a step backwards on his last run from the one before that. But I've also noticed Mark Twain was 3rd that day so that was hardly the strongest of maidens by Leopardstown standards.

Basically the long and short of it is Purple Heart should win handy really, the only question is does he want to. I'd be having a far bigger bet on him if he didnt let everyone down the last time, €50 is enough and we'll see how good he is from here, hopefully Johnny will be near enough to the front if not make the running, I think thats the best way to go, he doesnt seem to go through the gears quickly but he has gears nonetheless. If people start to take him on later on Betfair, I'll have another poke nearer the off.

Purple Heart 4-55 Tipperary, 2pts win @ 11/8 with William Hill.

09/09/2009

Spooky date isnt it! England are woeful at one day cricket. The most annoying thing is the same thing happens again and again and again, yet nothing ever changes. Anyway, seriously difficult game to trade this evening, Australia had basically won because England didnt get enough runs first innings, the bet was could England bowl them out. I hate these games. I didnt trust the Aussies to lump on them, and after a few collapses the last few days the confidence wasnt there to do so anyway. But they scored at a slow enough rate and England were bowling very well, so nerves came into it and England were well on top for the first 10 overs of the chase.

This is the worse possible thing to ever happen in cricket trading. England keep things really tight for 4 or 5 overs, with Australia scoring maybe 2 or 3 runs per over, so the odds on Australia edge out bit by bit, but not much (maybe 15 ticks), then boom a 10 run over and the price comes in 30 ticks. Its catching a falling knife trading. Thats the hardest possible way to trade because youre fighting the market the whole time, you might get lucky and get two wickets or have it going for you for 5 overs and then it can all go kaput with just one ball and a 6. I've been around long enough to notice at this stage, so I just backed Australia to win and left it from the start, €50 at 1.4ish. I really like backing after a wickets fallen in these type of games too but just wasnt trading it after the last two days.

Cricket: €20.85 Total P&L: €20.85

I wasnt going to post this evening cause I didnt really have too much to say, BUT I've just seen this from Paddy Power..






Without being a name dropping tosser, myself and Mr Fallon go back a bit from his time in Ireland, obviously with the same connections. We'd be very far from best mates because of the age difference but we can talk about stuff freely you know, about horses obviously. Although I'd know absolutely nothing about his rides in England and we dont speak often like, it was all to do with the Ballydoyle horses at the time. Now, I asked him the other day should I back him for the title, half joking half serious chat, he said hes going for it and really wants to shut a few people up by winning it. This news is in the paper every day anyway sure. But he said to me seriously to back him anyway and I trust him (even if many dont!), so I rang around, the first bookie was Paddy Power and they offered me €200 at 3/1. The bet asked for was €1,000.

So, I have serious issues with the above statement from Mr Power. My phone account isnt even a big winning one, probably around levelish I'd say and included are a number of big loses from last year, Ryder Cup being the biggest so I dont understand we he'd only lay me €200 when some person can have €7,000 freely, hmmmm. I opened a new online account for the blog, you might remember I used to back a horse each day in Ireland during the summer before giving it up, €50 a day normally, few wins few loses on the account same as everything really. They'll offer me €241.50 at 5/2, heres the screen shot..















God I hate liars, €7,000 they must be taking the piss, at least they got to change the price to 5/2 for no reason though eh, why cant they just change it and say nothing. Anyway, some people have serious issues with Bet365 taking a bet from them, well they took €1,200 over the phone at 3/1 so fair played to them (my chelsea game losing bet of €5,500 was with them last year!). Having spoken to the great man I'll be having more on him nearer the time, around next March when the season starts, he'll probably be around 2/1 or so but theres no need to have it all on now sure with a long winter ahead. I've asked Bet365 and they'll lay me another €1,500 so I might have that. And some for this challenge too, maybe €500 - €1,000, depends where the P&L is at the time I suppose, could be gone skint like! Its a long way off. But seriously Paddy Power, disaster, I actually had a lot of time for them before reading that today.

Collapse Take Two - Lights Out

Somerset collapse to 205 first innings. Essex need 206 to win. Sky say Chopra has broken fingers and wont play. Essex are 1.5 to get the runs, €300 on thank you. "Cook for England" uh oh hes out for 4 to a straight ball. "Napier for England" uh oh hes out for 0 to a straight ball. Essex are 12/3 after 4 overs, tossers. Here comes some bloke Maunders, jesus he looks like Graham Smith, no wait hes just a bit fat looking too. James Foster for England. Oh my god, the wind is bowling too hard, the lights have to come down. The games being called off, Somerset are 1.08, Essex need 18 off the next over to win with D/L. Foster out, I've always liked Matt Prior anyway sure. Wait uh oh lads the winds stopped, lets play on. Fantastic. Two wickets for one run, balls. WAIT! Heres Chopra, he seems to be alive, theres hope yet! Market goes from 1.1 to 1.8, Chopras out for 6, shouldnt have bothered the tosser. Somerset back to 1.2, Essex need 80 odd runs off 80 odds balls. The fat bloke who looks like Graham Smith just hit a couple of 4s, woohoo. Essex are 1.4, ah no the fat blokes out. Somerset are 1.4, some randomer hit a 4, Essex are 1.4, GSM Essex. A bit confused? I was too.













I dont exactly have a story for it really, anyone who watched it will know, it was the most bizarre game of cricket I've ever watched. You could have won thousands, absolute thousands. In the end I was delighted to come out just €90 down. As with everything else, there'll be some serious losses for some people too, Somerset were matched at a low of 1.04, I have to say I thought Essex were a certainty to chase it down and had €300 on 1.5 at the break, only thing was after 12/3 it was kaput and looking at 1.2 Somerset, hence being delighted with only a €90 loss at the end. Even though if I had of rode it out the whole game I would have indeed won, however I wouldnt have been able to collect it due to a heart attack at some stage I have no doubt.

Funny old game this gambling lark, I was messing about on the Sri Lanka game earlier, keeping my liability under €30 the whole time and ended up winning €17, not bad like. I had the odds moving my way the whole game like a good looking version of Moses. Then up it to the usual €250 - €300 for Sky games and have a bit of a mare. Can never explain these things. Anyway, I have a sheet here it just occurred to me to take a screen shot tonight, basically this is how I work out where the games going. As you can see its pretty simple really, but it just gives me an idea whats happening and where the momentum is going, I'll then see what the odds are doing and decide what I'm doing then.

If I'm happy with the run chase I'll tend to let the market do what it wants, once I'm happy with the sheet going my way you know. This is where I get the sitting here shaking my head at the market moments from, also explains why I run into some big losses the odd time of over €300, but big wins too. If youve been reading my blog a while you'll hear me saying stuff like "oh it was easy" and "they should have got it" or "England are shite" this sheet is normally where I get all that from. Theres logic to my waffle believe it or not. Maybe logic that makes no sense whatsoever to other people but logic nonetheless. It also calms me a bit so I dont really get caught up in the market panic like everyone else. Dont mind the RW (rough work) part on the right, thats just waffle, D/L, runs, wickets, anything that happened you know. Its an unbelievably simple way of looking at things, but at the same time you know exactly where the game is at every moment.


















I also had a really frustrating day on the horses in running, it was hard enough with the meetings that were on and just basically things werent going well really. Lack of money in the markets and lack of getting matched, two things getting on my nerves. Was losing until Mister Tee won in Dundalk, put it up on the side this morning, didnt exactly plan to back it as big as I did though for the challenge at the time. But I did spend the morning wandering around town backing it so I suppose it worked out alright in the end, missed the 4/9 and got pissed on mind, ground will be heavy the weekend I suppose. The bet at the time for the challenge could be seen as chasing though. Tad annoying, but that type of day.

Cricket: -€72.92 | Horse Racing: €1.24 Total P&L: -€71.68

Anyway, just a screen shot to sort out the loss last night and todays results. I have to say I'm getting an awful lot of collapses lately for some reason, might just try keeping the liability under €50 on cricket for the rest of the week. Doing my usual tonight, taking the Betfair balance down to €200 after a loss, busy enough tomorrow so wont have time for the horses, which is probably a good thing after today. But just need a few steady days to settle the ship now I reckon. I'll never run out of time gambling so a couple of days trying to win €20 will be the aim and then kick on as usual hopefully.

07/09/2009

W 0 0 W W W. Disaster. Not much I can do really only laugh at them, I dont know, if I dont laugh I'll cry. Nottinghamshire, remember the name anyway, I wont be rushing to back them again. The target was fairly easily gettable too but not before this total collapse. The funny thing is I suppose, I was trilled to be laying 1.3 and below at the time. I've never seen anything like it, a 4 wicket maiden. They lost 2 wickets for about 5 runs before that over in the three overs before too. What a bunch of jokers.






Won a few quid off the inning runs beforehand so the P&L now stands at: Cricket: €40.81 Total P&L: €40.81

But its gonna be -€126.04 for the day after this game finishes, not bothered watching the rest of it. I'm seething like, they need 169 off 131 right now as I type and their turning down singles, ah god. Off out.

Just to say, its free in to Dundalk tomorrow for the races and you get a free race card too. Fantastic from the track management. It was €15 in for a student to Leopardstown evening meetings this summer, its no wonder the place was empty. No reason not to pop in if youre in the area for a few races, alright its not the greatest meeting ever but hopefully they get the crowd they deserve with that offer.

06/09/2009

Facebook status 4 hours ago: "England chasing 250. An extremely slow over-cautious start with wickets falling regularly looking likely, with the run rate getting too high for the middle order, when their out due to the pressure you'll then see a great effort and come back from the tail enders, anyone seen this happen before no? I havent. I think they'll do it though, if they dont, someone remind me of what a tosser I am backing them please."

Now, I'll hold my hands up and say I was totally wrong with the slow start, they got to 74-0. Then well er, it was embarrassing. Luckily enough I've traded on England games enough times to know never to trust them, laid off and ended up not losing. But jesus, how do you not chase down 250 from 74-0, on a flat pitch, oh dear.








I know its grand and handy putting up a screen shot of a game that went well and is all green, but thats far from what happened at times really. The idea of it anyway is to show how important laying off is in cricket, alright I know it worked today and its great saying it after, but just in general I cant stress laying off enough. When the teams are evenly matched and its a fairly close game, the odds fly around more than Kerry Katonas knockers on a bouncing castle seriously.

I'd also stress that if you do something wrong, its important to get out of it quickly, on any sport I suppose but cricket can move quickly, dont sit there hoping, go all red. I was seething having breakfast this morning because I broke a proper important rule for myself today, no betting while the first innings was on. The €200 at 1.7 and €100 at 1.68 on Australia was done while the first innings was on, then laying €280 at 1.84 was going all red, it took a wicket for me to come to me senses. Very annoying to break your own rule thats in place to stop you losing money, fair enough if you lose, but I hate stupidity. A slice of toast and a calming down, come back €25 all red and start again.

It went well, I definitely could of made more money going all green, but well sure England should have won, lets be honest. The laying 1.05 for €200 is something I really like doing when I have green, always a chance of a bounce out, always. The other day I needed a 6 off the last ball for €10,000 laying 1.01, its well worth it. But the main thing is, no matter how good it looks lay off, and if youve any worry get out. Those two things are not as important as remembering not to trust England with anything though, anything.

Anyway, what a cracker the All Ireland final was today, seriously good stuff. Felt a bit sorry for Tipp, it was hard watching the game not to be shouting for them. Emma didnt even know who was playing this morning and here she was glued to it after 20 minutes, great advertisement for hurling. Kilkenny are amazing though, up until they scored the two goals, I think the comms said they had five shots for a point, scored five points, thats the class of them. Werent at their best but still keep going.

Cricket: €4.77 | Gaelic Games: €45.91 Total P&L: €50.68

Had a little experiment on the tennis last night, I'd be thankful if someone who followed tennis could leave a comment and tell me if I picked the worse match ever, the mens game, Verdasco v Haas..




Never again. From my amateur view of the game, Verdasco was a complete mug and Haas was a bottler. So what do you do! Basically, what I learned was you need a massive set of balls for trading it, and theres some amount of choking. I cant handle that. From an odds point of view, they have so much factored in that I dont/cant understand the market. It sort of moves for no reason. Its like, the odds are expecting something and when it doesnt happen or slightly changes theres a massive readjustment. It appeals in the sense that if you call something right, the odds swing is massive and youre rich, but it also stuck me as a game that if you got one match wrong, youre finished, kaput, bank gone. I'll not be back in a hurry anyway, but at least I won €5.30 for the lesson.

Its been a really good week overall, would have been a fantastic one P&L wise if not for the Champion Stakes but thats the game. Just heard this minute Johnny got an awful fall in Dundalk and has been put in a neck brace, I hope everythings OK but I'm told hes conscious so thats good news, I havent even seen the fall.

Its been a brilliant weekend for sport, Sea The Stars, All Ireland final, Ireland winning 2-1, College Causeway (next Saturday night will be fantastic if he can win). But its all completely knocked back by what happened in York to Jan Wilson and Jamie Kyne. All I hope for is whoever started the fire gets the worse possible sentence they can give the person. The most heartbreaking thing from my point of view is that, allegedly (I stress that word) the two young jockeys that died were allegedly not the target of the alleged attack, I cant stop thinking about it really. This is only what I've been told from other jockeys now, allegedly it was all over relationship trouble. Obviously all of this might be way off the mark and is just rumors at the end of the day. Its awful to think things would ever go that far you know, I know weve all been out with a nutter or two as some stage, but ah listen I dont even have words to describe how I feel. Its got to the stage where you cant even have a night out without seeing a row or somebody wanting a row, I dont whats happened. My grandad used to always say "your ego will heal quicker than a broken jaw." But when did everyone start to go mental killing people, when did everyone start carrying knifes and guns etc. Theres no such thing as a fair fight anymore, its people trying to actually kill people these days.

RIP Jamie & Jan.