30/06/2009

Got my exam results back yesterday and I passed them all with A's and B's, whos the daddy! I had around 35% attendance for the year as well, every hard to go into college, especially when theres cricket on in the winter (England v India) and its raining here, so to pass was a fantastic feeling! But, I did find out how terrible I am at playing blackjack after a night out, lost around €250 in around 15 minutes I think, dont remember much about the cards apart from the dealer getting 21 every time I got 20 and 20 every time I got 19, and a 60 year old mad women singing at the top of her voice beside me as we were playing. Never got her number, losing my touch.

Tried trading tennis yesterday seriously for the first time, and honestly I'd say it took about six years off my life. I wasnt even in bad positions, in fact good ones, but every shot feels so important because of how the odds are flying around, youre wishing the ball to go in every shot, and when it looks close its like "ohhhh dont hit the net" stressful. Anyone that does it every day, good luck to them! I did enjoy it though, I like the best of five sets, not too keen on best of three. Find hard to word this but - its like theres not much momentum in it, because say you get a really impressive 40-0 hold (no aces) on serve and then the other guy might do the same. And then a guy might lose a break point playing well, then lose his serve the next game. Its very hard to access the situation with the prices, theres a lot of what the market expects factored into the odds. That probably sounds simple to someone who bets on it everyday.

Not much to bet on today so spent the best part of the day on the golf course but did trade the womens cricket game, its still going on as I write this but its basically over, England trading at 1.01, have a screen shot below to show this - it was a case of one trade too many! But then I thought everything I did was a good bet at the time, the Aussies were in a great position, I had +€1,500 green on them before laying the 1.07 England for the second time (stupidly), what it did point out was that it was the only trade I did going against the market after a wicket fell and it lost, every other trade was going with the market and they won. Reckon thats massively important. I have to say my eyes lit up being able to lay England at 1.07 at the start, but did keep all my green on the Aussies, so had €12 green England and €1,500 green Australia when England were trading at 1.5, the smart money might have went all green at that point, I regret that. But anyway, it was near perfect trading, bar the last one obviously, and still end up losing when I could have won €600! All ifs buts and maybes of course and it only occurs to you after its happened, again for the second time this week I've found myself in a fantastic position but not close it out and it comes back to kick me up the arse. Green = Good, Greed = Bad.

Tennis: EUR71.07 Total P&L: EUR71.07

Have -€33.64 on England now in the cricket (-€21.97 the Aussies if they do get it) its not over yet but I'm taking it away from the total, cant wait for it to finish have to go out.

28/06/2009

Just waiting for The Windies v India game to finish to post, backed The Windies. Fantastic day on The Curragh with Fame And Glory winning the Derby, couldnt have been any better. Got €100 off Paddy power from the daily horse from backing him too, no sign of evens on course though.

Cricket: EUR88.06 Total P&L: EUR88.06

Been a really good week on Betfair and apart from the golf mishap it would have been a perfect week. I've been a lot more relaxed this week and I really think its worked to be honest, took as little risks as possible and its all added up, take out the golf and I'd have made €430, which I'd happily accept every week. The daily Irish horse is going well and I'm enjoying doing that, I also think the more happy, relaxed and confident I am betting on cricket, the better I am on it. I suppose its like everything else in life really, have a clear head and do less silly things, obviously I done a few things wrong but this week anyway I've gotten away with them, whether it be luck or limiting losses. Will give the tennis a little more time next week seen as how theres not much else on, get my college results at 2-00 tomorrow, wish me luck!

Gambling Is So Very Easy Its Unbelievable

Read this..

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/381075/Serial-gambler-Elliott-Short-made-pound20m-on-Betfair.html

I laughed. A lot. Its mad! Also, for anyone that reads the Betfair forum (I dont post), the first comment from Money Tree, a forum legend, is priceless and I had tears in my eyes reading some of them!

Anyway, after reading this I've popped down to the local bank and got a loan of €20,000. I'm going to start laying favourites tomorrow for €1,000 each and an outsider in case the favourite wins. It wont though because I'm the daddy and I'll pick the losers, its easy. Then after a few wins I'll lay for a few million because I am indeed fantastic at this gambling lark!

Erm, laying Binocular at 6/4 for 1.5 Million, I was in Cheltenham, was there even that amount matched at 2.5? I'm seething with jealously here, although it seems I've found a new hero, a great man, a man to look up to, a man I could only wish to become.

Seriously joking aside, I genuinely feel sorry for any person who reads this and has opened a Betfair account today to lay favourites, we all know its not easy to win, we all know the figures talked about are insane! No mention of premium charge either, I honestly hope this isnt Betfair. Its not fair on people who have never used Betfair to read stuff like this. But anyway if it is true, I wish he'd put a bit of money into the Irish markets! And good luck to him, I found it very funny anyway.

This was my favourite bit "ELLIOTT'S tips - CHOOSE favourites in short distance sprints - like five furlongs. "A short race is always congested and the favourite can get hemmed in. It's a real lottery." No more betting in sprints, I'm sticking to scratch cards! Cant believe this was in a national paper today!

The Curragh Sunday (Currently +10pts)

I'll be really busy in the morning and I've already done my bet so might as well put it up, very competitive card as you would expect for Derby day.

I will definitely be on the English horses in the sprint at 2-10, we dont have any top class sprinters and bar the English horses both underperform one of them should win. I backed Inxile the last day at Naas thinking he wouldnt have to come off the bridle, he didnt really impress me to be honest, made it look hard enough and that was a very weak race, I'd want him to improve from that. Have to say I dont know much about the other one Captain Gerrard, I see hes won on good to firm and on soft ground so no worries there, he ran a cracker at Royal Ascot and if he ran to that he'd probably win this handy enough, his form before that run is woeful though. It'll be close but I reckon one of them will win and its hard to pick between them, Benbaun is the only danger, anywhere else I wouldnt even think of him but he absolutely loves The Curragh.

And also, the fact that our sprinters arent fantastic it'll pay to be on Something in the 2-40 from the Dandy Nicholls yard, I think hes a great bet at 6/1 each way and will definitely be backing him on course tomorrow. He wouldnt have to be great to win this.

The railway stakes at 3-10 looks a bit weak compared to previous years, but I suppose weve no superstar two year old this year either bar steinbeck. The Ballydoyle runner Alfred Nobel isnt too exciting and you'd think he was here just because theres nothing else to run, he'd want to improve to win, although thats very likely to happen coming from AP's, hes no superstar but then none of the others are either. Kitty Kiernan has the best form and if Bolger was in better form I'd say she'd be near a certainty, no way I'm backing a Bolger horse this weekend though so prepared to let her go. And Love Lockdown is a really nice horse that improves with every run, I've a lot of time for him because he tries his best every run and is tough, he'll be hard to pass if in front with 200 yards to go tomorrow. As I said no real superstars and anything could win, King Ledley might go past the front three. If the ground was to dry up a bit more tonight and tomorrow, I'd edge towards Alfred Nobel at a good price hopefully.

You'd think Famous Name should have no trouble winning the 3-40. Has by far the best form in the race and its not a difficult race to win at all. If the ground does indeed dry up, it'll affect his main rivals more than it will him I reckon, Emily Blake and Jumbajukiba need soft ground to be seen at their best. Emily Blake is in foal and everyone knows how well mares in foal run, while the way the race pans out may favour Jumbajukiba getting first run. Really hard race to call with so many question marks about them all, I'm going for Famous Name with no confidence whatsoever, no rain and he could win it easy but hes not a horse you'd put your house on thats a certainty!

Speaking of certainties, Fame And Glory goes for the big one at 4.20! I love this horse, if Aiden would let me I'd marry this horse. Obviously its the Derby and it wont be easy tomorrow but you'd have to say all things considered he should win and win well. Hes already beaten Mourayan and its very difficult to see how that form will be turned around, Gan Amhras didnt run well at Epsom at all, again Bolgers form! Hes a big danger though along with Masterofthehorse, whos the only one in the field that really scares me. Brilliant horse, hes improved after every run and came from miles back at Epsom, if it turns into any kind of sprint at all he'll win thats for sure. But I trust Johnny not to let that happen, Fame And Glory has improved since Epsom and I fancied him while Sea The Stars was in the line up so I think hes an even better chance now, I think he'll win but it would be no surprise to see Masterofthehorse fly past with a few yards to the line, make it a test though and Fame And Glory will come out the better one hopefully! I'll be delighted if he does, and think hes a fantastic bet at evens.

While in the 5-05 I fancy Crowfoot to win, very rare you get an AP horse in a handicap on such a good mark, so low Johnny cant do the weight, really impressive when winning the last day on Ulster Derby day, sitting in behind coming late will suit him down to the ground. He has the right man on board for that, really needs it not to rain to have a chance of winning though, would be very worried if it rained. 5/1 or thereabouts is a fair price looking at the race.

Fame And Glory 4-20 The Curragh, 4pts win @ 1/1 with Paddy Power.

27/06/2009

Went out for a meal last night with the girlfriend so the P&L is the last two days, havent really got anywhere with a profit of a few cent under €40, still better than losing though! Played the cricket game in England brilliant yesterday getting €150 all green, while go and lose most of it on the West Indies v India game later, couldnt believe how India were so low. Had to go out and left the bet running, not sure if I'd have won or not had I traded it until it finished, I had €1,500 plus green on Windies and -€113 on India, all ifs buts and maybes what I would have done.

Was at The Curragh today so no bets on Betfair throughout the day, gutted with how I played the GAA when I came back though. Backed Antrim at all prices from 1.7 down to 1.11, they traded at 1.06 leading by six points with 15 minutes to go, the thought went through my head to go all green for nearly €170 but stupidly left it. I could feel the game turning, Cavan trying to score a goal and Antrim were bottling it, I was being greedy letting it run, sure enough the goal came and Cavan got it down to a two point game, I was able to get out at the same price but basically threw away a good position being greedy, Antrim went on to win to make it worse! A lot can be said for greening up, no matter what the situation in a game is.

Lost €100 to the bookies over the last two days too, with the two daily horses losing, got chinned on the line today! Heartbreaking because I thought he won from were I was in the stand, but looking back at the race I think the best horse won.

Cricket: EUR34.42| Gaelic Games: EUR4.87 Total P&L: EUR39.29

The Curragh Saturday (Currently +12pts)

Nice card today with a good few tight races, one of those days were you pick two in every race and the one you dont back wins. I feel really sorry for the clerk of the course over the ground, I hope a big fuss isnt kicked up over John Oxx not running Sea The Stars, its been like Barbados here this week, two of the hottest days of the year recorded and its absolutely gorgeous weather now again today. He was just unlucky we had a massive freak downpour half an hour before the first with drizzle then throughout the card, of course the ground will be softish, I hope they dont go on too much about the watering. What could the bloke do if he didnt water and we had sunshine like we do now, the ground would be unfit for racing Sunday, I suppose the idea was water it during the week and it'd be sunny, the ground would be Good to Firm, Good in places on the round course come Sunday. Unfortunately this is Ireland, we get a freak shower and its all pointing fingers at each other saying this and that.

Right well that said, it does change everything because suddenly youre looking for soft ground horses! It'll really suit Mad Rush and Alandi in the 4-15, Oxxes horses ran terrible last night, strongly fancied ones too, I'd probably edge for the English trained horse over Oxxes, if Johnny makes the running on Yankee Doodle and goes off in front he might stay there, 1M6F looks short enough for him and he'll want to make it a real test of stamina. Depending on what price Mad Rush and Yankee Doodle are on course, I'd probably chance Yankee Doodle at 11/2, fair enough price, anything could win.

The English look to have the big race at 3-40 between them, never liked Katiyra for some reason, would definitely not be laying her at 3/1 but after the way Oxxes ran last night thats my reason for steering clear of his horses today, he could have a double all being well though. Look Here ran a cracker the last day in Epsom, dont know much about her but she does look to have better form than Dar Re Mi, cant have Lush Lashes but its one of those races anything could win again. I'll probably have a small bet on Look Here if I get 2/1 in the ring.

First thought looking through the card was "Totally Devoted at 5-15 is a certainty!" Then I looked at the distance and seen 1M, isnt ideal, but what beats her. Johnny had an absolute mare on the second favourite the last day but that was a weak enough race, the horse didnt help too much either. As for Totally Devoted, honestly if she had run in Naas and came straight here she'd be something mad like 2/5, theres not much to beat her at all. The ground wont stop her, maybe its not perfect but she coped OK with it at Naas, she ran a better race than it looks at Leopardstown (I thought it was eye-catching actually), wasnt good enough for the Irish 1000G and ran OK again at Royal Ascot in a Group 2. She'd be my pick today if it wasnt for the trip, tad short, but bounce out in front on this ground and she'll more than likely win, I'll back her on course. Finishing down the field in Group 1s and 2s running OK and then run in a maiden doesnt always work but if she cant win this race, she'll never win a race.

Ballydoyle again have the favourite in the 2-40 at the moment, would guess it wont go off favourite though, my pick Mister Tee will I reckon. More than happy to take on the Ballydoyle two year olds on their first run and I really like the look of Mister Tee here, hes had three good runs, only sightly bad one was here on heavy ground but that was an odd race, I'd put a line through that the way it was run on the ground, it was the first race that day and I'm fairly sure the jockeys messed up the pace as it was near bottomless. He ran well in Leopardstown first time out in a hot maiden staying on and ran over 5F in Dundalk, that was a messy race but he flew home to grab second. I reckon 6F is his best trip on this sort of ground, its going to dry up a little by the time of the race should the weather stay like this and I'd say that'll be perfect for him. Its soft enough to make experience count but at the same time not soft enough to stop a horse acting on it. He has everything going for him today and 5/2 is a good price.

Mister Tee 2-40 The Curragh, 2pts win @ 5/2 with Bet365.

The Curragh Friday (Currently +14pts)

Bloody hell its a nightmare trying to get a price on Betfair with the early markets in Ireland! Given up, although I was trying for 50/1. Someone goes under you for €5 every price, annoying, wouldnt mind theres not that many people in the market anyway. I'm only trying to have €25 each way as well you'd think it was €500 each way. William Hill and Paddy Power go best priced 25/1 but might get bigger nearer the off on Betfair for todays horse.

Anyway, they normally aim for the drinking concert type crowd on the Friday night so its no surprise theres a few two year old races with not much form to go off, two hard handicaps and the Apprentice Derby. Bookies benefit I reckon tonight with question marks over every favourite, decided to spend the best part of the day on the golf course instead, traffic will be crazy getting there too.

I thought AP would have given Joseph a better ride in the Apprentice Derby at 7-00, Viceroy Of India is a stick! Look at his run at Leopardstown this year when he finished 3rd, he didnt want to go by at all, Johnny was in full drive mode and the horse was slowing down as he tried to push him into the lead of the final bend, I'm not in the business of laying 10/1 shots and I wont be laying this but I'd be truly amazed if he won. Cant really lay him for a place either because its a mad race, trust me.

Cabaret in the 6-30 was very close to being my pick, simply because its very difficult to find something to beat her. But she wasnt overly impressive on her first run, it looked like a lot of hard work to be honest and I would have thought AP would have stepped her up in trip after it, hes found a handy race tonight and she should win really, but evens is very short based on her first run, as I said though the thing is what beats her.

The listed race at 7-30 will be a cracker. You have Gold Bubbles, Famous, Elusive Galaxy and Intapeace, theres a reason why every one of them will win and theres a reason why every one of them will lose at the same time. Cant have a bet in this race but Gold Bubbles is definitely the best horse, Bolgers in terrible form though and backing anything at under 2/1 at the moment cant be done until he starts having a few winners in a row again. Surprised Famous is so short in the betting, got beat 7L first run by Intapeace, wouldnt be shocked if she won but I'd just want 4/1 or bigger to think about backing her.

That leaves the first race at 6-00 and my pick at around 25/1 each way, Xtraxtra. Massive price. I can totally understand why the bookies have put in Viscount Nelson as favourite with Ballydoyles record in this race, but the two year olds arent wound up for their first run and he would have to be up there with past winners to justify a price of 6/4. I've been told how well Kingsfort is working at home, the stable really like him so its more than likely he'll go off favourite, a Prendergast two year old first time out though, not for me as I've been burned before. I'm prepared to overlook the Bolger and Oxx horses, Bolgers would have to be special with the form hes in and Oxxes dont normally win first time out unless their special as well, although theres some money about for Oxxes.

That leaves me with Xtraxtra standing out. His last run doesnt look the most fantastic but he did have four very good horses in front of him that day and was far too free running with MJ in the saddle, hopefully he settles better because hes got a furlong extra to go today, which will more than likely help his cause and he likes The Curragh which is another plus. Theres no question in my mind he would have won on his second run if he had been drawn better, and the first run was a good one, Smullen said after the race he'd ride when not taken by Weld so theres obviously something about the horse he likes. The horses at the top of the market are bred to be far better than him but at 25/1 hes worth a shot each way in an open looking race, I think hes a bit of 'the forgotten horse' in the market, hopefully get a good run from him.

Xtraxtra 6-00 The Curragh, 1pt E/W @ 25/1 with Paddy Power.

25/06/2009

Another nice solid day following on from yesterday. Bit of trading on a few tennis matches, not much though just feeling my way into Wimbledon, I dont normally trade tennis too much. Did the womens cricket match today and managed to win just under €50, while I won €0.68 on the mens match - womens cricket is the future! The mens game was an incredibly difficult game to trade in fairness with Lancashire 1.03 after their innings getting 220, I laid it for €500 because it was a good pitch, then it went to 1.01 to lay but luckily enough it came back out to 1.03 for me to get out with no damage.

Its funny how when things are generally going well you get all the lucky breaks, when I got out at 1.03 a wicket fell the very next ball! Two weeks ago the exact opposite was happening, I'd back a team and they'd lose a wicket. Funny old game this gambling stuff. The daily horse won as well so got a few quid off Paddy Power, not a great price at 8/13 but sets me up nicely going into an important weekend on The Curragh, for confidence more than anything else.

Cricket: EUR49.28 | Tennis: EUR33.35 Total P&L: EUR82.63

Tipperary Thursday (Currently +11.54pts)

Just one day until the Irish Derby festival kicks off at The Curragh and I dont really blame trainers for not running their horses this week, another really difficult card tonight. The handicaps look basically impossible so they all got crossed off the list along with the 5-50 because most of the two years olds havent had a run. One horse stands out an absolute mile on the card, Rain Delayed in the 6-50.

It doesnt take much to win a 5F race over here, not much at all really, our last good sprinter was Dandy Man and I cant remember how long ago that was. It normally pays to back all the English sprinters when they come over, I'd say there'll be a few at the weekend. But anyway tonights race, Rain Delayed has been fairly impressive in all his starts so far this year. He was unbelievably eye-catching at Navan the first day, won at Down Royal quite well the second day and wasnt beaten too far at Sandown in a race probably too hot for him. Small worry might be the ground, it should be lighting quick with the weather were having at the moment but the Racing Post said the last day in their race review - "Irish challenger Rain Delayed displayed a fluent, fast-ground action," I'll take their word on that and wont be blaming the ground if hes beaten.

It looks a match on paper and the main danger is Croisultan, who to be honest isnt the greatest horse and would like softer ground. I'd honestly be disappointed if he was too good for Rain Delayed, he won what was basically a three horse race walkover at Navan on heavy ground, then they ran him over 7F in Epsom because they thought he wanted further, he finished last but still why bring him back to 5F on firm ground if you think he stays further, I wont knock him too much or he'll win! He has a good piece of form finishing second at Navan again in a listed race, again on soft ground.

Rain Delayed really stood out a mile for me when I first looked at the card without the prices, hes a tad short at 8/13 but he should win really, hes not quite a sell your kids and have the money on kind of certainty but I would be properly disappointed if he couldnt win tonight, I think hes close to a good thing but we'll see! I've gone for 4pts win, would normally stay at 2pts most of the time but I'm pretty confident and its worth it to go up I reckon. **(Edit, removed the Michael Jackson joke at 23.12, RIP, cant believe it)**

The rest of the card is too hard for me to have an opinion, hopefully Johnny makes it back from England to ride him, he had all sorts of problems with his flight last night and was stuck in the airport until late, his appeal was at 9-15 this morning and still havent heard if hes gotten away with it or not, its probably still going on - "Sure listen, Aiden said when you cant win to knock out at least two horses to help the others get closer - listen, remember how good I was in the Irish Derby last year - listen, great success!" Lydia Hislop will be seething!

Rain Delayed 6-50 Tipperary, 4pts win @ 8/13 with Paddy Power.

24/06/2009

Pretty much a perfect day, no stress, no worries, nice weather, nice results, nice dinner, and also went looking at apartments this morning - nice to see whats out there, we have a semi-detached house at the moment but being 21 and naturally lazy an apartment would be much handier I reckon. Its a long way off but the prices of the house and apartment are about the same so no worries with money getting loans etc, something to think about for myself anyway.

Not much to explain really as regards the challenge, the daily Irish horse won, the cricket was a mismatch plus a 1.01 train and the tennis was a canny bit of trading on the Sharapova match. Lots of flip flops there so nothing amazing, but the first bet was laying Dulko around 1.6, cant really remember what score it was at the time but Sharapova came down to 1.5 for me to go all green, first bet at Wimbledon 2009 was a winner! Just one of those nice days everything went right, without having to do much.

Cricket: EUR21.30 | Horse Racing: EUR68.92 | Tennis: EUR60.04 Total P&L: EUR150.26

Naas Wednesday (Currently +8.54pts)

Incredibly difficult card tonight, I was meant to be going but it doesnt look worth it to be honest, Weld and Bolger have a runner at the head of the market in most of the races and both stables are a just bit quite at the moment, Bolger especially (cue a treble tonight!) but you cant back any of his runners with any confidence. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I think all of Ireland knew how good a lay Lush lashes was in Royal Ascot. I knew it but I was in the bar at the time.

Weld is in OK form, but for the last two weeks I think hes had just three winners and four favourites beaten under 6/4, and one 8/13 shot beaten that got backed as if losing wasnt an option at Leopardstown I think. His horse Casual in the 8-00 looks like going off odds on but I cant back him at those prices. As for Bolgers horses, well he has a good few fancied tonight, Ceist Eile in the 8-30 already ran well this week so I'd be less worried about that one, and I've heard good things about OGraolaigh in the 7-00, but the stable just isnt firing like it was at the start of the season, and a few people are questioning whether the horses are over the top, we'll know more tonight.

As for my pick, really and truly I only had one race to choose from going through the card, the 6-30. It looks to be between two, Miracle Match and Bada Bling. Bada Bling isnt anything special but he'll be seen in better light over 6F rather than the 7F hes been running over. While Miracle Match ran a super race first time out finishing third to Emperor Claudius (a horse I've a lot of time for), he was slowly away that day and was the only one really to make any good ground from the back. He'll know more about his job today and if he runs to the same standard he should be good enough for Bada Bling. The main point is if they both run to their best Miracle Match looks to be the better one, people backing Bada Bling will be hoping he hasnt stayed at 7F and will be better over 6F, apart from that hes no world beater and there to be beaten if Miracle Match is good enough. I think most of the bookies know that and thats why hes a better price on Betfair!

Miracle Match 6-30 Naas, 2pts win @ 6/4 on Betfair.

23/06/2009

Have to say I enjoyed my day off yesterday and will continue to take every Monday off, traded the cricket while waiting for the girlfriend to get ready to go out (about an hour by the way!) playing with €20, ended up €8 all green, I was calling things amazingly! Why doesnt that happen when I'm betting with €200. Anyway, have a feeling about English cricket and I'll explain it a bit further down in this post.

On to the golf, Lucas Glover, who saw that coming? Not me. I honestly had him marked down as one of the biggest bottlers on the tour, the guy used to bottle normal PGA events never mind majors. After laying so many at the top I was in a poor enough position heading into the last day, just needed someone to put on a charge and pressure them, that ended up being Mickelson. He traded at 1.65, I wasnt here so I'm not too sure about what I would have done, I could have easily gone on green but my general feeling is I would have definitely let it run. No faith in Glover but he played brilliant and fair played to him, slightly wondering whether to give up the golf betting after it however.

No complaints though, out of all the players I wanted to lay in the lead he was the very, very first on my list, I'm a good bit disappointed he managed to win scoring above par on the final round. What I would complain about is the fact everytime I manage to get over the €13,000 mark something out of the ordinary happens or I do something silly, lose normally around €300 and come back down under it. Highly annoying! Play well and work hard to get it back and the same thing happens again, its been like that for a few weeks now, some of the lads are starting with the "13 unlucky for some," I'm starting to agree, but will try work my way slowly but surely past it. Hopefully, it'll be fantastic to get over €14,000 and forget about all the troubles at €13,000, thats a long way off though.

Thinking about the challenge aside for the minute, English cricket is back on sky every day now the world 20/20 is over. And its completely different to international level and even more different to the IPL, I'm delighted they dont run side by side, its difficult to get into the English Domestic trading, ONE WORD - MOMENTUM! Have to go with the momentum, different from the IPL with all the massive swings, and theres less of it at international level but its still very important. But I feel anyway in English cricket it pays to be going with the market rather than against it, the IPL I'd take a stand where as I'd be less likely to take the market on in England, unless the price was miles off, and you do get market manipulation. Theres also less market movement in regards to over reactions to a six, a wicket or whatever. But anyway, feel the momentum of the game and you wont go far wrong.

Goes without saying, I want to be in a good position etc to sort it out and obviously its sport so anything can happen, English cricket isnt that hard to trade once youre relaxed, dont panic and feel which way its going. It does follow a trend that once batsmen hit out there tends to be a few high scoring overs and while the bowling team have the squeeze on there tends to be low scoring overs maybe followed by a wicket. Partnerships are more important and there tends to be less randomness to it (20/20 aside maybe) than most other cricket. There does be a lot of short boundaries so bowling is the key, normally you dont get fantastic bowlers, from my experience its pays to watch the team batting first without having a bet (mostly because its so hard to know whats a goos score on English wickets) and then feel the momentum in the second innings, dont be greedy (learned that the hard way) and no lumping on at short prices.

Anyway, it was alright match tonight, had all my green on Middlesex after laying hamps in the 1.3s (after backing at 1.46), went all green at the flip flop but was favouring Middlesex until they started needing 2 a ball with 4 or 5 overs to go. I did have over €500 green on Middlesex at one stage and €4 green on hamps, so it was alright to win just under €70 on the market while not favouring the winning team throughout. Lost a bit getting tie insurance, just in case. The golf has been my only losing market for over a week on betfair, although a big loss and wipes out nearly most of the profit thats grand, things like that wont happen all the time and I'll just keep ticking over hopefully!

Cricket: EUR66.46 | Golf: -EUR288.00 Total P&L: -EUR221.54

Sligo Tuesday (Currently +9.54pts)

Well I picked some day to start! Its probably the worse card for betting on in a long while, but sure something has to win. Few horses caught my eye, theres only about three races a fully sane person could have a bet on to be honest but Sonnium in the 6-45 was high on my list today. He wouldnt want the ground to be any quicker than it might already be and weve had two super days weather here so will hold off backing him, he would be my next best though.

Also thought Crooked Throw would be a fantastic lay in the 6-15 at around the 6/4 mark, but looking now its more likely to go off around 5/2 and its a weak race, the price is a big high to lay now, thought about backing All About Timing each way with Paddy Power at 5/1, looks a bet to nothing but again its a hard race to sort out. All About Timing is in good form and knows how to win, which is half the battle in races like these.

But I've gone for Gleanntan in the bumper at 8-50. Ran a cracker the last day at Punchestown, the bookies have Corskeagh Shadow as second favourite on their lists and she had that one behind her at Punchestown, and if shes rode a bit closer to the pace today its hard to find something to beat her. Wouldnt be too afraid of the Mullins horse on form and the most likely danger appears to be Ninas mount Broadway Allstar, going back to the first run she'd have a good chance. But all in all if Gleanntan runs to the Punchestown form she should win, if not be very close at least.

Its a poor enough card and cant have too much confidence in anything so will play it small, big week coming up with the Irish Derby!

Gleanntan 8-50 Sligo, 1pt win @ 5/2 with Bet365.

Irish Racing (Currently +9.54pts)

I said when I came home I'd get this sorted so here it goes. On the side there, I've picked ten horses so far and the points profit stands at +9.54 so I'll start backing them now for the challenge. Just in case anyone is actually reading this, the horse I pick each day is NOT a tip, its what I'm backing and doing, I'll post it up here and you can laugh when it loses or think I'm the daddy when it wins!

Anyway, the idea is I pick a horse every day theres Irish racing on, except on Mondays which is now my day off every week, but instead of just putting it on the side I'll put it in a post with the reason I'm doing it etc and sure we'll see how it goes. But the main thing is, its NOT a tip. Using a points system seems to be the handiest way of keeping track of things so I'll do it that way, but for myself personally keeping records I'm giving it €1,000. And if I lose that then I'll give up on it.

1) 1pt = €25.

2) Maximum liability will be €250 (10pts).

3) The average bet will be 2pts each day, unless the racing looks impossible I'll move it to 1pt or go each way, but writing up a little paragraph is easier to explain confidence and all that. I'll very rarely go over €100 I reckon, but there is such a thing as a certainty in Ireland, and before anyone asks, yes they do finish second.

4) Will definitely be picking out lays as well as wins. Dont know how to keep track of that on a points system but will sort something out, I presume I'll lay it to a certain liability and then put that into points, "Lay for 5pts liability @ 6/4" sounds alright to me.

5) Not sure yet which way to go as regards placing the bets, thought about keeping it all on Betdaq because I'm not betting there at the moment, but cant be fully sure of money in the markets on Irish racing in the mornings, same with Betfair (even worse these days), will most likely go down the bookies road, they can hardly knock back €50 each day. Will post a screen shot with the post each day anyway.

6) Its just for the craic! I dont work for the Racing Post and I dont plan on working for the Racing Post, or ever having a tipping line and the likes etc, its picking a horse and putting my money on it, win or lose.

Anyway should be interesting enough, I won a competition tipping at the Irish meetings a few years ago, didnt get the prize because I was only 17, never backed them each day so this is new. But again, these are NOT tips, simply what I'll be doing each day on the Irish meetings. I like the idea of going through the card each day and having a bet regardless of the quality, even if its only small, be surprised how it improves your grasp on the form when it does come to the big meetings.

Back From Royal Ascot

And it was a fantastic week! Although a few too many seconds, it was an alright week punting wise, had four big bets, two won, two lost. Came out around level over the week, but of course with flights, hotels, tickets etc it cost money going over, I do love winning the price of things over the week but it wasnt to be, well worth it though!

As regards the challenge, it was a alright week! Didnt get to bet much at all and pretty much every bet was before the off, I'm much happier betting in running on sporting events so it was nice to show a profit on the few things I did bet on. The cricket was The West Indies beating England, the GAA was Kilkenny beating Galway and the boxing was a bet and then changed my mind and traded out minutes after doing it. The horses produced the only loss over the week, but basically I was level again mirroring the on course bets at lower stakes but just commission kicking in. Yeats and Mastercraftsman were the highlights of the week without question! With the low points being Johnny going too fast on freemantle, and lillie Langtry finding one too good for her.

Have to say ascot is an impressive place, the grandstand is fantastic, unreal the difference between it and some of our courses back home! Would have been nice if they went ahead with the plans for The Curragh but anyway, Irish Derby weekend starts Friday and the grandstand doesnt stop you winning money.

Also have bets on the US Open on Betfair, its not looking good to be honest having laid a few at the head of the market thinking they'd come back. Mickelson could do me a massive favour by winning! I dont hold much hope though, I'm against Barnes, Glover, Fisher, Weir, Duval and Goosen. Logic would tell you all those named would more than likely bottle it on the back nine on the final round, only thing is it looks like they have it between them, but anyway I've laid them all grouped at around evens. The worst thing is I have ZERO faith in any of the players I've laid winning (obviously!) but I've just no one making a move for me to pressure them. Only Mickelson, come on Phil!

14/06/2009

Not much betting at all yesterday, only a really small bet on the cricket. Anyway, today was hard, really hard - and I still think Ireland should have won! After laying Sri Lanka under 1.2 for €750 I'm still kicking myself I didnt win on the match, actually lost €70, Ireland were definitely in a winning position though. I think a few cooler heads in the middle order and we would have won for sure, there was a few silly shots when there didnt need to be when we lost wickets, that said the Sri Lanka bowlers are very good. The main point was Kevin O'Brien going for the big shot when he had only faced one ball already, calm down man, jesus we were only nine runs away in the end! Disappointed not to win on the market personally though.

As for the England v India game, I was favouring India the whole way through after they lost the second wicket. At one stage I had €200 red on England so I'm happy to get away with only a €50 loss, but it was a mistake laying England at 1.3, I could have got away with no loss at all. It was a bit silly and it all adds up to the total, dont need to be pushing things back like that.

The GAA was laying Waterford and then changing my mind and backing it back because Limerick were annoying me so much giving the ball away in scoring positions, it finished a draw, and I had laid Waterford at 1.4 for €500, sums up the day!

Cricket: -EUR96.65| Gaelic Games: EUR1.08 Total P&L: -EUR95.57

Overall this week has been alright, moved forward by €100 even though I lost on Betfair again. I have the daily horse to follow at the side up at around +10 pts profit now so I'll start backing the horse I pick every day for the challenge when I come back from Royal Ascot, also have a little idea for Betdaq but I'm still not sure its profitable and wont think about it until I come back either, and dont plan on having any bets with the bookies. Still in a bit of poor form with my trading so delighted to have a week off now, wont be posting until next Sunday but I'm sure I'll still be using Betfair while in Royal Ascot, and theres the cricket and golf on aswell. But mainly keep things tight, weather this little storm at the start of June and move forward again next week. Hopefully Royal Ascot will kick things off again, hope everyone has a good week!

12/06/2009

Wont say much as theres someone here and heading out, just waiting for the last at Navan to be run to post. Absolutely delighted the West Indies won! Messed up a bit in the first match laying Sri Lanka at the wrong time but it didnt cost much. Laid India when Gayle went, only because they came down to under 1.3 with so long to go in the game - that was my first time entering the market too.

Cricket: EUR68.74 | Horse Racing: EUR73.20 Total P&L: EUR141.94

Also, withdrew all my money out of betdaq this morning to have on my laser card for Royal Ascot next week so wont be betting there for the next while, until I come back at least. Spent the morning looking at a system for odds on favourites which I might do on Betdaq - keep it on its own, bit weird the first 15 lost today though! But it'll be just Betfair for the next week or two, with a bank of €400 or so at the moment.

11/06/2009

Unbelievably painful shoulder at the moment so keeping things low key for the time being, even though I made it to Leopardstown this evening wasnt really betting as such - delighted I wasnt with the results! So not much profit today but a profit none the
less of just under €20, had a big loss on Betdaq first thing with the Irish game though.

Jesus it was embarrassing at times watching them field, bowl and run between the wickets. I know New Zealand are by far the better team but simple things like running your bat in, one Irish fella was jogging slowly down the track and all of a sudden hes run out looking like a right fool. And while we were bowling, the amount of twos we gave away was terrible, I suppose we can only improve at cricket. You'd surely think we'd be good at it given nearly everyone plays hurling, slightly annoying too that England take all our good players and then dont play them! Joyce and Morgan sit on their bench while they could be playing for us, I'd choose to play for England too in cricket terms but surely playing must be important to them.

Anyway as far as the challenge goes, I know and can feel I'm still in poor touch so its slow and steady for the time being without much risk hopefully! Royal Ascot is on next week and I cannot wait, the other half booked the flights this afternoon, should be a cracking week. Seriously hope it doesnt rain because I've only got one suit!

Cricket: EUR20.01 Total P&L: EUR20.01

10/06/2009

Another steady day, and another winning day! Nice result on Betdaq with the Ireland innings runs, started off laying 140 and just kept coming down as the game went along. Tomorrow should be interesting, I reckon Ireland could give New Zealand a good game, would rather Ireland be chasing though, New Zealand missing a few players and our bowling is fairly good, its the batting that needs help but the New Zealand bowlers arent fantastic I suppose. Would fancy Ireland ten times more if chasing. And the England v Saffers match should be a cracker, its hard to see the Saffers being beaten, they look to have everything but England can beat anyone on a going day. Also, thought the West Indies did really well getting so close to the target as they did today without Gayle, still think their the dark horses.

As for Betfair, well the horses ended up being a small loss - losing on one market. Seriously, the market in running these days demands perfection from your betting, its slightly annoying that when I'm right I rarely get matched for everything I ask for and when I'm wrong its taken completely, I know that sounds obvious but taken before getting the chance to cancel, but thats the game.

Cricket: EUR8.57 | Horse Racing: -EUR26.76 Total P&L: -EUR18.19

09/06/2009

I know I said I wouldnt have a bet today but had a few spare hours while the cricket was on, a completely different approach staying away from Betfair and it worked. Had a little bet with Bet365 while Holland were in full collapse mode. And then played the innings runs on Betdaq for the second game, traded a little during the break but had my €10 green on New Zealand, Saffers were brilliant defending such a low total, looks like their the winners at the moment anyway!

Overall, a good steady day playing it safe and will continue with this idea tomorrow - with just adding the horses in running from Betfair. The cricket games arent too important but the bookies might come up with something I suppose, no need to bet if they dont. Happy with the slow and steady approach for the next while.

08/06/2009

Had a small bet on the golf last night after posting: Golf: EUR14.29, Tiger is the man!

Well what went wrong today? Pretty much everything. Everything. Was out for most of the day holding hands, first thing I do when I get home is have a bet on the cricket. Didnt even watch it for longer than ten minutes, trading terrible again, much of the same from yesterday. But had €200 Sri Lanka and -€300 Aussies at one stage looking good, Sri Lanka at 1.3 and I get greedy, looking back that hurts, always had in the back of my head if they lose wickets and go to evens I go all red. Which would have been a €50 loss or so - did I do it, well no that was the simple thing to do - I completely switch to the Aussies for some reason (stupidity) and a few minutes later I'm left with a horrible looking all red screen of €200. And that hurts even more.

Cricket: -EUR200.75 Total P&L: -EUR200.75

My trading on the cricket has been terrible lately, finishing -€150 for the whole of last month and this month is nearly -€1,000 on it already! Where do I go from here? Thats simple in my head at the minute, stop betting on it for the week. I'm taking tomorrow off, putting the Betfair bank back down to €100 and going to try play the horses for the main part this week and see what happens. It hurts because I love cricket, I love watching it and I love betting on it.

The long and short of it is that everything comes down to discipline and greed. I was greedy today and that has to stop, I had no discipline either and after talking about it so much thats annoying that I still havent learned anything. But its not my mistakes thats the important thing here, its what I learn from them. Week off from cricket and start again. Another thing thats major - I need my hunger back, I think its gone and I'm just swanning around each day for the last two or three weeks, I'm happy with life and generally have no worries at all, but I have to care more. And gambling has to matter more to me.

I'll be taking Monday off with the other half from now on and wont bet too much on a Monday, will really scale down things from this week. You know the biggest let down is that I've already said most of this to myself and on here weeks ago, I havent learned a thing. But hopefully the starting from scratch will work, the main problem is I'm in shocking form, but this way I wont lose much and if I lose the €100 in Betfair now its not the end of the world, I normally like around €1,000 in the account. The balance for the challenge is still around €12,500 and thats brilliant, I accept losing is part of the game, I just cant stand when I cant do a single thing right and thats been the case for the last two weeks on the cricket, it messes with your head. These things are easily fixed though and once I know whats wrong I can correct it, play myself into a bit of form with a small bank and get my confidence in what I'm doing back. Some people think having a big bank is everything, it is very far from being everything.

07/06/2009

Annoyed, so annoyed. Just an absolute disaster on the England game, I was on them, then against them, then on them, then against them etc etc. End up losing near €300, dont mind the losing bit, just the completely stupid trading bit thats annoying me. Whats worse is all the time at the back of my head I knew they had enough. Anyway move on, one of those markets, disaster market. Never going my way and just kept making it worse. England were fantastic though. The GAA went well, even though I really do hate the Dublin football team, Meath are pants and Dublin were always going to win in the end so kept them onside, I suppose they'll win Leinster again this year before being beaten when they start to play the real teams. As is the story every year, but they'll be hyped and hyped.

Cricket: -EUR274.42 | Gaelic Games: EUR98.34 Total P&L: -EUR176.08

Been another losing week on Betfair, even though I wasnt online for most of it! No real winning markets was the problem this week, although they came on Betdaq so its not all bad. Few big cricket losses but thats my best sport and I know it comes and goes like that. Havent gone forwards in a while and June has moved me a bit back now, want to correct that but theres no rush. Still going through an iffy spell of form and it does get in your head a bit, just struggling to put a few winning days together lately. I fully understand the pressures of doing this full-time with a wife and kids, it would be near impossible in this form.

But as I said, I'm not losing a great amount and I'll keep going because thats all you can do, might take one or two days off this week but we'll see, and thinking of putting €500 in Betdaq for the Irish racing and work with that bank, bet in €50s, going through the card each day on here to make me think more, I'll have a think about it. Just try something new to change a few things, its amazing, I keep having to each myself discipline every couple of months.

Back From Epsom

What a weekend, dont think anyone can complain about the Derby, the winner was very impressive. As for the gambling - well it went OK over the few days but one losing day on Betfair yesterday over €100, which was pretty annoying because it was a stupid bet on the India 20/20 game. Wasnt able to trade any of my bets just do them over the phone in running so delighted with the results on Betdaq, picked a few winners. Come on the West Indies!

I go away for a few days and look what happens, male cheerleaders at the cricket, terrible! Backed the West Indies to beat the Aussies and really enjoyed the highlights, Chris Gayle is THE daddy! They are my favourite team even though they annoy me so much! Theyre fantastic when theyre bothered to try to win. And still in shock Holland beat England, got to watch that match and you could see it coming really the way the Dutch were teeing off, I dont blame Stuart Van Broaden for the way he bowled the last over though, thought he was good actually and he had to throw it to win the game. Really looking forward to the game this evening, not sure what to do really, because how can you trust either team.

As for Englands problems - well theyve no power hitters, that seems to be the main thing and their bowlers arent bomb proof, theres always a chance of them going around the park when a team attacks them. But in my mind they have a 20/20 team that must always chase, always chase, always chase, always chase! They cant set a proper total because they dont know what it is. Jimmy Anderson is a fantastic bowler, but when batsmen come forward to him hes no good, same with most of the bowlers when Freddie isnt there. The funny thing with England is when you actually look at the team without KP and Freddie theres no one scary there to the other teams, theres no one you can look at and say 'well hes gonna play well, hes gonna hit a few sixes or hes gonna take a wicket.'

Anyway, all that said I am actually a closet England cricket fan and I hope they win later. Why are they odds on though! On Betfair for the day today so have the screen shot from Betdaq for the last few days below and will put up the weeks Betfair one as usual tonight and update the total. Long evening ahead with plenty of sport!

03/06/2009

Uneventful day on Betfair and just back from Fairyhouse, played some races in running before I left and it went OK-ish, nothing amazing and all done on auto-pilot. The cricket was laying England before the match started, then thinking "oh hang on I've just backed the West Indies again, shit!" so backed England back for the same amount I laid, luckily a few ticks higher, the market was all over the place before the toss. Betdaq went offline again today! Saffers were 1.03 at the time and I didnt have a bet so no damage done, thats twice in two days though thats happened.

Cricket: EUR15.30 | Horse Racing: EUR24.80 Total P&L: EUR40.10

Actually really happy with todays P&L, if I could have a day like today every day with no stress, get out in the sun for most of it and still win €40 I'd be a pretty happy man overall. Fairyhouse went well too. I'm pretty happy with life in the main as it stands, but the less stress the less grey hair I'll have when I'm 40, some days I like the swings but cant have everyday like that. Anyway I'm 21 tomorrow! Wont be around from tonight until Sunday night, I'm bringing the laptop over to Epsom as theres a few things I want to bet on and its handy to have anyway, cant see myself having much time though, but will update the challenge with the screen shot on Sunday. Wont be doing a horse to follow for those days either. Hopefully I might get a bit of time in the mornings to update, but just incase no post for four days I havent lost my whole bank and jumped off a bridge. COME ON FAME AND GLORY!

If Fame And Glory does actually win the Derby, it will actually be the happiest moment of my life. For so many reasons, it just would.

02/06/2009

Big news of the day is that Johnny rides Rip Van Winkle in the Derby after a workout this morning, Seamie rides Fame And Glory and I'm delighted he keeps the ride. I would have thought Johnny might ride Fame And Glory, the fact that he was impressed with him the only time he rode him this season, but he likes Rip Van Winkle and fair enough, he'd want to be right now or he'll look a bit silly. I think hes picked the wrong one to be honest, its one thing looking amazing at home and looking amazing when getting beaten, but I'd rather look amazing when winning and thats what Fame And Glory has done. Hes picked the wrong one a good few times, last year he did it quite a bit, it makes things a bit more interesting anyway and cant wait for Saturday, have my flight booked! I dont agree with the price of Fame And Glory going out I have to say and wont be laying off my 7/1, I would LOVE IT Kevin Keegan style if Seamie won!

Anyway, today and yesterday I was let down by my internet and Betdaq. Today was Betdaq, they went offline in the middle of a cricket game, went straight to Betfair and ended up losing more than I won on Betdaq, if I let the bet run too I would have won. Yesterday, I came back from Naas and traded the South Africa game and my internet went kaput - a loss of over €250 because the first time I entered the bet it never came up on the screen but it actually went through to Betfair, so without knowing it I did the bet twice, annoying! When I did eventually sort it out the game was as good as over and all I could do was go all red at 1.1 after finding out what I had actually done, needed a jog to calm down afterwards. I'll lose €8 if England go on and win but I've got to go out for the evening, laid them but backed it back now, will put the €8 loss in with tomorrows P&L.

Cricket: -EUR336.31 Total P&L: -EUR336.31

R.I.P Vincent

I was never around while he was training but my grandad always told me lots of storys as a kid of how good Vincent was, I actually had the pleasure of meeting him one day at The Curragh a couple of years ago, he was a very nice man and had time for everyone. He started everything at Coolmore and if it wasnt for him they wouldnt be anywhere near where they are today, its amazing he was voted top flat trainer, national hunt trainer and top trainer of all time in the Racing Post - he was that special.

If anyone in the area would like to pay their respects the removal is arriving at St Conleth's Church Newbridge Co. Kildare at 6pm on Wednesday, I'm not quite sure if its open to everyone but I'm sure there'll be a Mass or part of the church of some sort open and the Funeral Mass on Thursday at 12 noon, and thats strictly private. Of course everyones thoughts are with his wife Jacqueline and the rest of the family.

He really was a legend, and will never be forgotten in horse racing. It was nice touch at Naas yesterday after the most perfectly observed minutes silence a round of applause broke out all over the packed course on a bank holiday weekend, I've never seen anything like it, it made the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. It was also fitting that a Coolmore horse would win the very next race.

Vincent O'Brien Factfile:

Name : Michael Vincent O'Brien.

Born : Good Friday, April 9th, 1917 in Churchtown, Co Cork.

First winner : Oversway, Limerick Junction, May 20th, 1943.

Final winner : Mysterious Ways, Curragh, September 17th, 1994.

Total winners in Ireland : 1,529.

Champion trainer in Ireland : 1959, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1988, 1989.

Champion NH trainer in Britain : 1952-53 & 1953-54.

Champion flat trainer in Britain : 1966 & 1977.

Irish Classics : 2,000 Guineas ( 5); 1,000 Guineas (3); Derby (6); Oaks (4); St Leger (9).

British Classics : 2,000 Guineas (4); 1,000 Guineas (1); Derby (6) Oaks (2); St Leger (3).

Major International Victories : Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3); French Derby (1); Washington DC I'ntl (1); Breeders' Cup Mile (1); Major NH wins: Aintree Grand National (3); Cheltenham Gold Cup (4); Champion Hurdle (3); Irish Grand National (1); King George VI (1).

Honours : Honorary doctorates from the National University of Ireland and Ulster University.

R.I.P

Naas Monday

Amazing weather at the moment and if youre in the area theres no reason not to come along! It hasnt rained for a while and with the sun beating down each day, were not used to this in Ireland and were all going around with tomato heads, no craic being burned, a little wind so you dont even notice how badly burned you are! The track has to be near enough to firm, it'll be very quick and nothing in the ground for the soft ground lovers.

3-10 Naas.
Tight little race. Its the 7th run of the season for Three Rocks already! His form is starting to tail off bit by bit, but I'd forgive him for the last day over 6F on heavy ground. Thats no good for him at all, if he was a greyhound he'd never win a race because of the way he traps. Having had so many runs in such a short space of time I'd be looking for something to take him on with, but its pretty difficult to find one. Leandros is a bit hit and miss, he didnt enjoy himself the last day in England but he'll enjoy himself more today, and has a long uphill finish to get going, as does Three Rocks though. Empirical Power is well in at the weights with Three Rocks from their run in Leopardstown, and he loves this trip. If he bounces off in front he might just be the one today, but its a very hard race. Empirical Power for me is the lost likely winner for me, and will back it there. Bit of money might come for Johnnys horse now the stablemate is a non runner.

3-40 Naas.
I'm surprised more English trainers havent noticed weve no sprinters over here. Plenty of horses in England finishing 7th and 8th in their big sprints would clean up over here, Dandy Nicholls seems to be the only one coming over each week and he should collect here with Inxile if the horse handles the quick ground. Looking through the Irish ones its hard to make a case of them. The Oxx horse hasnt ran for so long, although he could be anything and it would be interesting if they started backing it (Oxxes gambles go down too often though) and the Weld horse is a 7F horse running over 5F, I know its a stiff track but still! If Inxile runs his normal race he should win without fuss really.

4-10 Naas.
For me, Beethoven is a certainty. I know theres no such thing but he'll be very, very, very hard to beat. He has everything going for him today. Massive question marks about the form of Love Lockdowns win the last day in Leopardstown, it was a two horse race between him and another Ballydoyle two year old (who isnt anywhere here the top of the pecking order). There was still a lot of confidence behind the Ballydoyle horse but he never got into the race and Love Lockdown looked very impressive, thing was it was a race full of trees! Beethoven ran well in York over this trip, and is bound to come on for the first run which is always the case with AP's. And Diva Dolce would have to improve a lot of her first run. I respect Love Lockdown and he'll put up a very good fight of it but I'd be really disappointed if Beethoven didnt win, and would nearly go as far to say that if he didnt win today he'd never win a race. Hes smart at home and does all the right things, I think he'll win and confident of it. Fingers burnt in Naas if he doesnt!

4-40 Naas.
Tough to call between the front two in the market, Lillie Langtry and Kitty Kiernan. I'm pretty sure one of those two will win, but which one is a much harder question, they both had their first run in the same race here over this trip a few weeks ago. The Bolger camp really liked Kitty and she went off a very well backed favourite, supported all day too. She won well and you'd be sure of her upholding the form if it wasnt for the way Lillie raced, completely different from the winner. She was held up and only really got going towards the end, the way the race worked out and the ground that day would make you think the form will be reversed and Lillie will win. It really is a case of how you see that first race between them. I was in the Lillie camp but shes favourite now, a bit silly if you ask me. I know the Bolger camp like Kitty a lot, its just going to be a case of who gets the run of the race today, at 3/1 I'd back Kitty but the theres more reasons to back Lillie than not. It'll be close, their probably our best two year old fillies along with Wrong Answer, who could beat them both but I wouldnt be backing her on this ground.

As for the rest of the card, good luck if youre betting in the handicaps! I'll be having ice cream while those races are on. Fantastic card, fantastic weather, bank holiday, what more could you ask for, COME RACING!

Note for the derby and all the Ballydoyle horses are working really well, still no choice from Johnny, it'll be close. Tuesday and Saturday (sometimes changes to Friday) are the big days of fast work down there and I reckon he'll know which one hes riding on Tuesday. Theyre all going very well so wouldnt be fussed over jockey bookings regardless of who youre on. All very well in themselves, this was Tuesday..