31/10/2009

Happy Halloween. Worst holiday ever by the way, just answered the door to a group of little monsters. "Theres no sweets in the gaff" I said (there isnt, it wasnt a lie!) "Give us money then" they said. They were about 7, kids today whaaa, little fookers! Why bother to dress up as witches and ghosts, might as well put on one of those concern jackets they have on Grafton street!

Never mind not having sweets, at one stage today I had no money! Got pulled over by the police on the way to Naas, we were late so a bit of speeding was needed you know, anyway still made it there on time. Last minute stuff so didnt know Carbs had failed the breath test and wasnt riding, had €250 on course and €100 here as below, probably mightnt have gone with €250 had I known he wasnt riding but sure its done now. I dont think even the great man himself would have given the horse that much to do, but he still jumped the last terrible and wasnt exactly flying at the finish, not one of those to feel robbed about but at the same felt a little bit let down. Then it was called out that Carberry wasnt riding and what his replacements for the day were, I then thought Noel had stitched him a loaf in the parade ring after the first ride and that why he wasnt riding for the rest of the day.

So then it comes to the second, and Tranquil Sea was 6/4, couldnt have it, really had to lay even though it was such a trappy little race, sure enough it won and was 6/4 for a reason I suppose, can only go with youre own feeling you know so no worries there. I backed Made In Taipan on course too, was going OK when he fell, who knows where he would have finished, I'm not one for wondering about these things though. If they cant jump they dont deserve to win.

Now I'm stood there €200 down for the blog and the guts of €300 down on course after two races, actually quite chuffed I pulled it back, it could have got ugly, backed Noble Prince as planned, I'll never change from the plan regardless of how much I'm up or down, was only a 1/2 winner but it was welcome at the time you know. Then River Liane went off at 2/1, massive really win or lose, was forecast 5/4 and there wasnt much else in the race, Slippers gave him a good ride too. Sure look though, he finished within 5L of Go Native, he was a certainty after getting that close to the greatest horse of all time.

Boxing comes from last night, happy with my €25 win considering my first bet was €80 on the other bloke, was a close fight so just kept backing the outsider, had more green on the draw and the other bloke (cant remember their names), nice to win even though I was wrong basically. Profit on Betfair of €74 and a loss with Bet365 of €100 today, I'll take it happily, because at one stage it was far worse!

Small bit worried about my last man standing pick here, United 0-0 at half time, they arent exactly banging in the goals lately so theres a strong possibly it'll be a nervy second half. Gonna watch the X-Factor before I bet too, either lay Lloyd or Jedward bottom two, depends really, wonder who'll sing last, see what the filly says anyway but its not a week to be going mental and having liabilities of €300 like the other weeks with storys of acts topping the poll, then another paper saying their finishing 4th bottom, who do you believe you know. As always I suppose, I'll see what the odds do and then go from there.

Naas Saturday (Currently +23.08pts)

The sun is shining, its free in for children, its free in for students, its €15 in for adults with a fiver off food and a free fiver bet, so only a fiver in really, and its a great card. No excuse not to. Its rained all day yesterday and even though the sun is out now theres water on the roads so looks like its rained during the night too, the ground should be testing enough, soft enough that you'd want to be on soft ground horses and against good ground horses you know, its doesnt look like type of ground you'd "get away with."

Hopefully Carberry can get me off to a winning start at 1-05, hopefully he comes down the outside swinging with his arse up in the air as he does. I hear the Meade team really like this one, looking through his form on his first run he opened up 11/4 went off 6/4 and his second run opened up 6/4 went off 10/11, so the price movements basically back up they think hes a good un. The main dangers today come from the same race last time, Sunwake and Brodies Dubrovnik, whos finished 2nd and 4th, on good ground. Looking at there form, Brodies Dubrovnik went backwards on his 2nd run really finishing 4th so I'm happy to take him on, both his runs have been on good ground too. And while Sunwake is consistent with her two seconds, she finished 6th on soft to heavy so I'd be happy enough taking her on too. On paper its a weak enough race so I'm very happy to be on Prima Vista. What I am seething about though is the price ticking down when theres only like a tenner being matched each time it moves, its less than half an hour until the bookies price it up, if people had any sort of a brain they'd wait, but theyve got there €4 on so good luck to them, theres no point putting €100 into the market because it wont get matched and then someone will undercut you straight away, so that'll only make it worse than it already is! I'm still happy backing at 4/5, just probably I could have had 10/11 or evens bar that.

The 1-35 is an absolute cracker, Made In Taipan, Tranquil Sea, Joncol and Trafford Lad all running, bit gutted Forpadydeplasterer is a non runner but you cant really have a go at the trainer for not running this early in the season on this ground. The small problem with this race is that so many of them are stepping down in trip, you know you could come up with a solid reason for laying all of them. Paul Nolan was delighted that Joncol was stepping up to 3M at Punchestown, now hes at 2M, when hes ran at Naas before hes only really powered away coming up the Naas hill at the finish and that was over 2M4F. I think Tranquil Sea wont like the ground and steps back down from around 2M5F that he normally runs over. Trafford Lad has a new trainer, a bloke I've never heard of, his family own the horse or something so it seems hes become a trainer to train this particular horse, hes stepping down in trip too and was matched at 12 on Betfair earlier so you'd wonder how fit he is. Made In Taipan is the only real 2M horse here, I remember though he put in a shocking round of jumping here and got himself like 25L behind in basically a two horse race against Jayo, hopefully that wasnt just because he doesnt like the track or whatever.

My pin falls on Made In Taipan anyway, just because that little reason not to back him is the least strong compared to all the others. Its a great race, be brilliant to watch, not exactly one you'd want to be lumping on in though! Small bet on course for me, nothing that'll kill me, and hopefully they all come back safe because they should all be good horses this season.

I have the 2-10 as a two horse race between Noble Prince and Time Electric. Time Electric is a sort of annoying horse because you cant trust him to turn up in the mood, he can be brilliant and he can be shite, you dont know. He seems to like the front running tactics and got a fantastic ride the last day in Listowel, the only thing though is its far much more harder to front run like he does on ground as testing as this, and its a long way up the Naas straight. I dont think he likes soft ground either, his two latest wins have come on yeilding ground and just another two random runs that caught my eye were finishing 7th of 7 on soft ground and 6th of 23 on soft ground. You have to take Noble Princes fitness on trust as he hasnt ran since May, but he has some seriously good form from last year when he was stepped up to this trip, he seems to like heavy ground too having won on it the last day. Its not really a race you can have a bet on until two minutes til the off just to see what the story is. I'd much rather be on Noble Prince at 8/11 (Paddy Power) than Time Electric at 2/1ish. I'll wait to see what the Noble Prince price does on course though, that'll tell you how fit he is. I think hes the most likely winner though.

River Liane makes his chase debut at 2-40 having finished 5L(ish) behind Go Native over hurdles the last day. As everyone knows, Go Native is the best horse in the world and probably the greatest horse that'll ever step foot on a race course, hes currently in training to become a two time Champion hurdle winner before going on to be a three time Gold Cup winner, and will then happily retire with me as my wife. So, upon that, if River Liane can get to within 5L of Go Native hes an absolute certainty, like the others might as well not even bother. Joking aside, I reckon River Liane will win if he jumps well, theres not that much in the race really, Roccos Hall needs a longer trip, Sky Hall has terrible form and we dont know much about Sorceror. River Liane seems to like soft ground having won here on it and finished 3rd in the Irish Champion hurdle on heavy. Wouldnt be having a big bet at all on course, €100 tops, but hes my idea of the winner anyway.

Then theres two impossible handicaps at 3-15 and 3-50, I'll probably go for something to eat while there on and then tell everyone I backed the winner. Although there seems to be big gamble starting on Bedford Row in the 3-50, might be nothing, might win easy, I dont know.

Lastly, we have the bumper at 4-20, bit of a guessing race this one, even though every race is guessing for me sure. Talab was sort of ridden like a non trier the last day and finished well to get 2nd, he was near last which isnt helpful in a bumper, that was on good ground though so youve basically no idea whether or not he'll go on this ground. Thing is, none of the others have any sort of good form to their name, its a shite race like. Maple Court finished a bad 7th first time he ran but looks interesting with the Tommy/Paddy Mullins combo, if he was fancied from there would he be the 8.6 he currently is on Betfair, definitely not is probably the answer. I'll probably side with Talab but not big at all, its definitely not a bumper for chasing on anyway.

Actually really looking forward to heading to the track, even though I fancy Nobel Prince and River Liane I'd rather back them a few minutes before the off, so only bet for the challenge is Prima Vista at 4/5, thought about going a bit bigger but happy enough with €100. Hes a few ticks bigger on Betfair now but if he goes out I'll get best price guaranteed with the bookies, I'd be disappointed if he didnt win to be honest but I wouldnt shocked you know, not that I'm ever shocked when I'm wrong! I'd have him as my best hope for a winner on the whole card anyway.

Prima Vista 1-05 Naas, 2pts win @ 4/5 with Bet365.

30/10/2009

I am number one, the big cheese, the man, winner winner chicken dinner, numero uno, the champ, the chief, the greatest there ever was, the best on Betfair, unbeatable, awesome, fantastic, super, amazing, theres no one that'll ever be as good as me, quite simply I am the daddy. Without boasting about myself too much, heres todays P&L..

Horse Racing: €3.09 Total P&L: €3.09

I've got this game by the balls.

Joking aside being serious, it was just an up and down, down and up sort of day, didnt do anything particularly wrong, at the same time didnt do anything fantastic either so a level day. No point forcing the issue later betting on Dundalk either, (the Ballydoyle Dundalk curse of Friday night..!) wonder will Johnny win the first, if he doesnt, it'll only be because of the curse. True story.

Anyway, wasnt going to post my €3 profit, whos the daddy, but just wanted to point out what a great thing Naas are doing tomorrow. Its a brilliant card too by the way. Its free in for children and students, and €15 in for adults plus you get a free fiver bet and a fiver off food, so technically its only a fiver in. So if anyones in the area youve no excuse really but to pop in, even only for a few races sure, the second race is probably the best race of the jumping season so far with Forpadydeplasterer, Joncol, Tranquil Sea, Made In Taipan and Trafford Lad all lining up against each other. You know the course didnt really have to do the whole lowering fees thing, but fair played to them credit where its due, when you think Leopardstown charged absolutely everyone €15 in for their evening meetings its nice when you see a course doing something like this you know. Hopefully they get the support the offer deserves, I'll be there anyway. Naas is a lovely little track too.

http://www.naasracecourse.com/20091031.html

And for anyone thats interested in boxing, just watched the first Pacquiao v Cotto 24/7, jesus theres some amount of problems in the Pacquiao camp. Its probably not a nice thing to say with all the troubles in Pacquiaos country but what the hell is he actually doing there training? That can be forgiven, but watching it hes turned into a right tosser, the little row with Freddie Roach at the end there said a lot, hes a nice bloke, top trainer and a top man basically, Pacquiao seems to be calling the shots though and I dont really like that. I know Mayweather is seriously arrogant but at least he trains like a mad man. Cotto looks decent too, his only loss came against a bloke called Margarito, who has since been found with concrete in his gloves in his next fight, banned for a year, its never been proved that he used the same "tactic" (and Lydia Hislop thinks our front runners are bad!) against Cotto. But Cotto bled from his ears (weird!), and it took more than two weeks for the swelling to go down, basically put two and two together. Margarito was also a 1/7 favourite when it was discovered, he was outsider against Cotto, why use it when youre such a favourite to win.

I have the link here to it, I'll put it up, 24/7 is generally always a good program anyway, if youre bored it'll kill 20 minutes. After watching it I said to myself I'd back Cotto at 6/4ish, open the market and hes 9/4, not bad. No point backing him now though, theres three 24/7s left to watch and things might change, you know it terms of what size the bet will be, it'll take a lot to change my mind after the little row with Roach at the end. But as well as that, I'm 90% sure big money will come in for Pacquiao on the fight night and I'll get bigger odds on Cotto. Over two weeks away but sure its nice to have a plan.

http://www.tikilive.com/recorded/video/22567

This Is What Betting On The X-Factor Does

I'm here at 1-15 on a Thursday night reading tomorrows headlines, gay or what! Anyway, going along with me currently being John & Edwards biggest fan now that I've got €1,500 green on them, bit gutted to read this..

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/105910/X-FACTOR-WINNERS-REVEALED/

First off, one paper says their top and another says theyve been bottom four every week, so I'm pretty confused. Who do you believe, I dont know. It says Rachel topped the vote after being bottom two first two weeks, thats an amazing bounce, Danyl top week one then bottom two last week, another amazing bounce. What I am gutted to hear though is that if indeed the twins were anywhere near the bottom with THE pimp slot, last on, thats pretty disappointing you know.

I'm just gonna leave the €1,500 green there and do nothing for the time being, see what happens this weekend, if ever there was probably a week not a have a biggish liability bottom two its this week. Wonder what the market will do when most people see this in the morning, I'm confused so I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. I'm starting to think Lloyd is a dark horse now actually.

And after thinking about retiring from cricket and horse racing, and planning to become a full-time professional punter on the X-Factor, I've decided fook it I'm going to bed.

29/10/2009

Up and down day, slow day, frustrating day and add in a bit of me being a tosser day, all wrapped into one. I've no complaints about what happened, lost €86, was all me, dropped €120 on the very first race and basically there was no way back. I've been so bored doing in running I've even been taking screen shots..














As you can see, pretty much nothing on the lay side, thats in the middle of the race too, not near the start or finish, the middle. Disaster. Now, this isnt a reason for not winning, and it definitely isnt a reason for losing. Its bloody annoying though. Thats why you know when I get myself down over €100, theres no way back, before I'd be sort of confident I could maybe get back to level if things went right, at least I'd know I'd have a chance anyway. Now, theres no way back from €100 down when theres so little money knocking around. Just have to accept it when I make a mistake and move on. I have to know that if I do lay a winner in running, its just the way it goes and I lose, its impossible to be perfect yet with the amounts of money in the market, the market demands youre perfect during every race, or you lose. Losing €50ish is grand(ish), its just when it gets to over €100, you can have a near perfection day and still not make up the ground on the one bet that cost you.

Its no bother when youre sailing through the day picking up a fiver here, the odd tenner there and it all adds up, but I suppose when you get behind youre more likely to be pissed off about it and have less patience, hard to describe, I just want money in the market, whether I win or lose, at least its there you know. When youve sat here and got nothing matched for around 45 minutes your mind starts to wander, everyone is fighting over that €4 to lay at 22 in the market, cause theres bugger all else some times! I accept all the meetings were on ATR today and that makes a huge difference when youre putting in bets, but still, no money even up. Its nigh on impossible to do the win market off ATR too, obviously, but as well as that I'm sitting here going "oh this'll win, then no this'll win its going better, no wait this'll win, the first one I picked is coming back he'll win, no wait the one on the outside" By the time I've actually went to click I've changed my mind, maybe its because I'm so used to the place market, thats goosed though, I miss the cricket!

If it was just the horses now each day, I dont think I'd bother anymore to be honest, to think I used to pick it over absolutely everything, its grand for an hour or so but it gets to the stage where I'm sat here thinking, my pictures are miles behind and theres no money there to even try and win, stuff happens at Lingfield on the computer before it happens on the TV, the market suspends 2F out on ATR, only joking, but it just all builds up and every little niggly annoying thing has you ticking by the end of it. I could feel it here when there was three races left, wanted to have €50 on Fallon, purely because he was riding it, didnt even look at the form, said to myself would I be doing this if I was €80 up instead of down, answer is definitely not.

No point betting just because its the only thing on offer you know, might as well carry the loss through to the next day, doesnt really matter having a losing day when you can get it all back and more tomorrow. You never think of that at the time though. Do I want to bet on the snooker tonight? Yes. Am I good at betting on it? No. Do I like it that much? No. Why do I want to bet on it? Because I've lost money. I wont bet on it, I'll wait for something I'm good at to come along, just accept a loss today and remember that week I didnt bet Monday through Thursday and then won €550 on Friday, because I was waiting for something I'm good at. I've had plenty of annoying days like these, and it certainly wont be the last, just annoying when its happening at the time you know. The thing is, unless I get knocked down by a bus later, I'll still be here tomorrow, theres a fair chance that if I keep betting in this mood my money wont.

Horse Racing: -€86.59 Total P&L: -€86.59

Just to underline how bad I actually was, I started the day with €200 in the bank, and done near half, one of those days, but at least I didnt chase, massive difference between losing €200 and losing €86 when I sit down here tomorrow. Would have been easy to chuck an extra €50 odd on something to try get back to level too, how many times would it have won though, probably less times than it would lose.

Guess Whos Got The X-Factor

John & Edward! BOOOOOMM! The papers are all covering the story that they topped the vote on Saturday night. Singing last does its magic sure, I'd be of the view that if they sing in any way near the front the judges have had enough of them, be interesting to see what happens now. Anyway, the early bird catches the worm, read this at half 8 this morning before most had seen it on Betfair..

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/2700883/Tone-deaf-pair-John-and-Edward-get-most-votes.html#ixzz0V5pW3XKC

Market was a bit slow to react staying in the 30s but has come down to settle in the low 20s today, so got a good trade of that. Price looks sort of low now to be honest, like they cant sing! But, er, do they win? No idea. Be nice if they did now though. It was only a bet on the back of the news in the papers so I'll leave the €1,500 beside their name until they start getting down into single figures, if they get knocked out before that, so be it.

Not sure what the bottom two market will do with this news on Saturday, can only wait and see, maybe the time has come and gone for laying them bottom two, but if their singing near the back end of the show and are between 3 and 4.5, I'd be happy to lay up to €300 liability. If their near the front, I'd leave it.

By the way, small note to Blue Square for their very kind offer of €2.71 max bet on the market, cheers lads. Honestly, whats the point of even having the market. It seems Betfair is the only place to go for these type of things.

Didnt have the time for a bet today. And tomorrow I'm in college in the AM, and having a cuppa with the grandad in the PM so no betting tomorrow either. At least this way, I cant possibly lose..!

Last Man Standing

Well, Amber Grey was fairly pap today. Was delighted to be getting 3/1 this morning and then it goes off at 6.2ish on Betfair, felt less than shrewd. Got a proper good slagging too because it was a Ballydoyle horse, "did ya get the names mixed up Stephen," er, no, must of been the fooking colours that did it! It was a bit funny seeing Johnny go off at odds on, I couldnt believe it, I was full sure he was on the wrong one, shows how much I know. Ah sure, I had a laugh about it, but that said its not really funny losing money. I said before I dont really like people following me, it tends to happen though, mates whatever, so apologises to anyone that followed me in today.

Anyway, on to better news, and this weekend knocked out countless people in my Last Man Standing competitions. 950ish in the main one I'm in (€18,000) and theres only 142 left in the other one I'm in (€1,000). The €1,000 one is through Facebook for Paddy Powers page and was free to enter, with no disrespect to Facebookers I'd like to think I'd have a fair bit more of a chance of winning that one than the other paying one through the website.

I've planned ahead to the last weekend in November anyway looking at the fixtures. Er, I'm not quite sure if the Facebookers would be planning ahead, I'm pretty sure the main competition ones are. So hopefully getting to the end of November will see me bag the €1,000. I'd be over the moon you know, I'd put it up there near some of the top stuff I've done gambling. I do understand its football and its nigh on impossible to plan because theres so many random results, you can only dream sure. This week I might pick United after hearing half the Blackburn team have Swine Flu!

Also, havent had a bet on Betfair today just the Bet365 bet to take away from the total. Back in college tomorrow so it'll be a slow week again really, just hopefully pick out a few good markets to bet on. Although with the cricket on at dodgy hours in India its looking unlikely that'll be a source of income this week.

I've gotten a few emails about my staking lately, got a good one today really, asking why dont I use more of the €18,000 and have bigger bets on certain things that I view as certainties (St Nicholas Abbey for example). Well, I'm not a great fan of big bets, I would have no issue having thousands on something on course (if allowed obviously) but this challenge is altogether different really. I like betting every day, and have basically built up an "ego" if you like to assume that I'll win every day. That seems big headed yes but thats pretty much what you need, confidence in yourself. At the same time I accept there will always be bad days so hence not touching most of the general funds. Most peoples view of "I started with €100 and now have €18,000 so if I lose it, its only money I won." Bollocks. Once youve won it, it becomes yours, dont give it back.

For the challenge, I generally have around €2,000ish on a card for online bookie accounts, Betfair top ups (if need be) and around €400ish - €900ish in Betfair. Depending on whats on really, I like to carry more money the weekends because theres more sport (like €300 lia on a horse, €300 lia on a cricket game, going at the same time). Most normal days I'll start with €400 in the account. I'm a big believer in not needing a big bank to be successful really, like if youre good you'll win with a tenner. Granted you can do certain things differently depending on your bank size, thats obvious, but I've found my comfort level being around €100 - €400, and I like those stakes. Obviously on course, I'm working, things are different you know. But for online gambling its important to be comfortable with what youre betting with because in front of a computer its different, youre more likely to chase, youre more likely to lose the head. And as JP McManus says "you bet to your means," you bet what you can afford to lose. If you can find that comfort level that almost has no effect (impossible I know, but little effect) when lost, youre laughing sure.

I'd assume that a lot of people in my situation would have had €750 - €1,000 on something by now during the course of 8 months, everyones different you know, but you read stuff on the forums about blowing the lot. Its all about staking. If you can win €100 with €300, thats DOES NOT mean you can win €1,000 with €3,000. Far from it actually. Because you think different. Different stakes means different thinking. I wake up every morning and I know what I'm doing, I'm not changing anything each day purely because of what happened the day before. OK, when I lose I aim lower, I play lower, thats natural because I'm trying to look after what I've got, feeling I'm in bad form or whatever. Take yesterday for example, I won near €650, I still started this morning with €400 in the Betfair account, I won €650 the day before so what, thats in the past, on its way into the bank.

Sports..
Horse Racing - max €300 - €400.
Cricket - max €300 (not betting while first innings is on I've found key too, for me).
Golf - gave up, however max €50.
Football - gave up, have a little football Betdaq bank, added to that the odd €50 - €100 bet, everyone does it, its gets the better of me sometimes.
Boxing - max €300.
Darts - max €150ish.
Rugby - max €300 - €400.
Tennis - max €150ish, tried it this year, found it difficult.
Specials - max €300 - €400, reckon I've a fair understanding of them and if I thought something was a certainty I'd have no issue going full whack.
GAA - max €300 - €400. Brilliant sport to bet in running, best in the world.
Greyhounds - max €150ish.
Snooker - max €100, tried it, dont really like it for betting, but sometimes you know.

As you can see I have a fair idea which sports to kick on with and which not too. I'm comfortable at all those levels, no nerves, no shitting myself, although obviously you do get involved if the games close! Most importantly, I'm happy with those stakes in the market. I'm happy with what I'm doing.

Staking plans are important, but I like to be flexible, and I like to "feel" how much I'm going to bet when deciding between €50 and €300, if you cant "feel" the bet, youre goosed. I like having rules too, because even if I get too far ahead of myself, if the max bet on cricket is €300, I think somethings a certainty but it fails, I've only lost €300 you know. Sometimes, that feeling for staking goes arye (€200 on a horse that should have been €50 for example), thats generally when I'll end up losing that week. When I am losing and feeling bad about it, I'll total the excel month, close it there and then (even if its only 10 days whatever), add it to the overall year, and start a fresh month, who cares that its not the end of the month, end of a certain time period, the important thing is I've just given myself a fresh start. It works.

At the end of it all though, I dont think gambling is something you can teach, its something in your head, its there when things are going bad, it stops you chasing, it stops you doing stupid things, everyone does stupid stuff you know but less of it. I would say to anyone to know 100% if you can do it, dont fool yourself, know if you can do it properly or just stick to doing it for fun. Have yourself in a good place mentally, I dont think I've ever been as happy as I am lately you know, but thats just me it happens things might change, I've no pressure, the day I end up having a child (god help me) is the day I get a job and take life seriously, simple. My one single bit of advice for gambling is to just enjoy it, have fun, have a laugh, have the craic, pick a few winners, shout whos the daddy, go out and get locked and say BOOOOMM! You cant teach picking winners however, but you know, you work hard at stuff and it'll come. Just dont throw money away at stuff I suppose, forget doubles and trebles etc and stick to certain stakes no matter how good things are going. And if things are going badly, relax and lower stakes. You walk to success, you dont run.

Leopardstown Monday (Currently +25.08pts)

Been a while since I wrote one of these! I'll keep it short as I'm off to give Johnny a birra support for the Jockeys Championship. He has however picked the wrong one (in my opinion) in the 1-55. And Amber Grey is an absolutely massive price at 3/1 with Bet365, max bet stuff for me, done it in two parts, maybe that might keep the price there for a few of the lads a little bit longer you know. The Irish firms are joint favs at 7/4ish, they pretty much have a fair idea.

Don Carlos is a good horse but hes a small wee bit of a dog, he carries his head high and whacks his tail around the place. He should come on for his first run though, he had every chance and to me basically didnt really fancy it. Not much in this race though so maybe he'll be god enough to still win you know. Amber Grey ran a cracker first time out at Navan and was really eye-catching, if Johnny had of picked him I'd guess he'd be near evens. Only small worry is stepping back down in trip is against him you know, he finished really well at Navan which is uphill, but the ground should be testing enough so I dont think its that much against him to not back him.

Anyway, bet365 are the wrong price, and rightly or wrongly its a max bet for me, if you watch both of their races (ATR website for anyone that doesnt know you can) I reckon you'll think Johnny has picked the wrong one. I'm in college most days, so maybe Don Carlos is working like a train lately, I havent heard anything like that though so I reckon Amber Grey will win if they go a good gallop. Johnnys 3 ahead in the title race, so he doesnt need this winner Seamie!

Amber Grey 1-55 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 3/1 with Bet365.

John & Edward

My god. I've never been on such a high from X-Factor in my life, HA! What a pair of legends. I said at the end of my post yesterday I might have a cheeky little lay for bottom two because I've done it for the past two weeks, well that became a big lay last night when I saw they were singing last. A fact for you, only one act in the whole history of X-Factor has been in the bottom two singing last. Do you really think the judges want them out? Not a chance. I accept plenty of people hate them, the fact is they get the most press, this stopped being a singing competition years ago, I honestly believe that Simon wants them to keep going for a few more weeks and stir up a bit more controversy, controversy sells, controversy means more viewers, controversy means more votes, controversy means more money. Think about it. No one seems to understand, the boo's are a good thing!

Lets be honest, if they were really hated so much by Simon and the show executives, why give them THE plumb spot, if they wanted them off the show put them on first so people forget about them. I'd forgot all about the other acts because these two little monsters sang last. I know they'll come unstuck soon, I dont reckon they can win like they cant sing, but I've built up enough money to still be ahead now even if they do go. I also wouldnt lay them if they were over 4.2ish to be bottom two. Obviously there'll be an awful lot of hate towards them, I think its terrible really, their only kids sure, and they obviously have a fan base, unlike Danyl at the moment, whos brilliant but still in the bottom two. I cant stress how important it is to forget about this being a singing competition when betting on it, its a popularity vote.

Anyway, that result cheered me up after United got beaten by Liverpool today, the less said about that the better. Moving quickly on to the cricket, set my alarm at 8 bells this morning to wake up for the India v Australia match, first bet laying the Aussies, very next ball an Indian wicket, bollocks. Bit of a touchy moment there having got up especially for it thinking why me, went all red and took a few moments to see what the story was again. Went all red at 1.28, laid again at 1.3, I know I've technically made things worse by two ticks for every €100, but you know I need that time, just to think, just to be happy of what I'm doing in the market really. Seriously seething with the Indians though, god they threw away some of their wickets, were generally shite, and without question in my mind should have won, I will add though the Aussies bowled well. The most annoying thing was they took the powerplay when they roughly needed 130 runs off 100 balls with 7 wickets left, now thats pretty easy you know, most good teams would generally get that, why oh why take the powerplay when you only have to knock around singles for the time being.

So, I click to back Australia to basically get rid of liabilities on them after seeing India have took the powerplay (laid at 1.3, price is now 1.5), as I click first ball in the first over, what happens, wicket. Next over, wicket. Three wickets in the powerplay. And Australia heading towards 1.01, so book a loss in excel and move on, check out a few markets for today, the football, X-Factor, Galway, whatever. TV catches my eye again a little bit after and Harbhajan hits a 6, I'm here thinking why couldnt the real batsmen do that (were down to the bowlers at this stage), then he hits another 6, with a few 4s to follow. Oi Oi, theres still hope, click back into the market and Australia are trading at 1.04, India needed like 70ish off 30ish, my book is -€280 Aus +€700 Ind from earlier, leave it just to see what happens thinking this is false hope you know, cant remember how long it actually was but maybe 3 overs or so later, Australia are 1.8 with India needing 9 off the last over. Success! I am a trading god after all, er, maybe not! Greened out in a panic leaving €250 Ind €50 Aus, very next ball Harbhajan gets out, and Australia go on to win. How I won? Pure fluke. But I suppose it goes to show, all the random bits of luck, backing or laying and then a wicket comes evens itself out over time, its just you notice the bad far more than the good. I was delighted.

Cricket: €50.12 | Special Bets: €142.80 Total P&L: €192.92

Its been an utterly fantastic week, with a profit of €1,500. St Nicholas Abbey was the highlight of everything you know, highlight of everything for a while actually not just this week. My winning bet on John & Edward from nearly two weeks ago came off today, I must add thats Emmas card on the account on Boylesports as they closed me down before I started the blog, that was the first bet after we opened it too (asked for €400 they would only lay €350), its my name though so I wonder how long it'll last, a different address seems to work though. Laying them to be bottom two each week has won me a fair few quid too. Added to that, a winning week on Betfair, only coming unstuck with my T&T bet. Doesnt get any better really for a week! I havent been perfect like, just I suppose everything has gone my way you know, good results on stuff I fancied, theres certain weeks I'm wrong so I'll enjoy it when its good, I think a trip into town for a few drinks is in order actually as its a bank holiday tomorrow! Whos the daddy, BOOOOOMM!

St Nicholas Abbey

BOOOMM! Woosh time. I could say a lot about today but sure look everyone saw how good he is so I can stop preaching now. I'm delighted, best day for ages on course, although have to say not a great fan on Doncaster, first time there today, rather Naas or Navan to be honest. Everyone knows I love this horse anyway I wont waffle on about him anymore. If I could just say one thing though, he is NOT "the new Sea The Stars," he is not the new anything, he is St Nicholas Abbey.

Actually just had the flight from hell home with the wind so will keep this short, had €300, max confidence bet sadly that I didnt like losing, on T&T again yesterday. This time they werent good enough but you know I'll stand by the bet after theyve won me a few quid over the last week, 160 was a fair score to chase down, probably only difference between this game and the others was the fact that it was the final and a few nerves were flying about. They give it a whack every game and I accept thats them and thats what youre getting when you back them, so losing a wicket every over for the first three was less than ideal but at the same time thats the way they play you know. Coming back to Thursday, letting the bet run on them or green, I was thinking about that more than the loss, because they won when I went all green, yet lose next, if I'd have not gone all green the profit and loss would have nearly cancelled each other out. Anyway sure thats in the past now so fook it!

Scratched around today at Doncaster on the horses, thats were the -€13 comes from, I'm not much good at guessing on English racing am I! Had my St Nic bet with Ladbrokes the other day so no worries that Betfair mobile was a complete joke to use today, terrible, might have been the weather though I suppose. Anyway, off to watch X-Factor, things will be back to normal tomorrow, am really nackered after today. C'mon John & Edward! Might have a cheeky little lay for bottom two depending on the odds after they sing, see what the filly says.

Whats Right And Whats Wrong

Now, when faced with that position, what do you do? Its an even game, pretty much, the odds will hover around about the 1.9 to 2.1 mark each team. Do you let that position run, or go all green? Level green each side being all green. I'll honestly admit that I actually dont know.

If you read my waffling on each day, you'll probably know by now I get myself into these positions countless times only to end up getting zilch, nada, nil, €0! There was the time I had +€2,000 on Australia and refused to go all green for €500, there was the time I had +€10,000 green on England and refused to go all green (needed a 6 off the last ball to win!). Now, I'll never ever go skint going all green, but today really felt like throwing away money by squaring up, but see I've been burnt so many times before, easy when its over you know to look back and say should have done this should have done that, I dont know, I suppose the best way to describe it is like my mate Dec going out with a German bird, it was a disaster and we all laughed at him, and now he always tells anyone that'll listen to never go out with a German woman, when like you know they might be great, might have a great big set of knockers.

The amount of times I got zero made me go all green today. That might work in my favour in the long run, just I suppose I'm so used to letting things ride maybe it feels a bit weird. As I said, I'll never go skint going all green. And I'm normally very good at not bollocksing up a good book, cant remember the last time I went all red from being all green, something to be confident about you know. I genuinely dont know which is right and which is wrong, then again every game is different, everyone will have their set of rules and then a little set of others which are bendable. Like me saying I'm finished with the flat, then Johnny tells me something will win so I have a couple of hundred on it, thats a bendable rule. A set rule would be never going over €300 on cricket.

Anyway, the plan today was to back Trinidad and Tobago at the start of the run chase and get rid of liabilities at the flip flop, I was pretty confident hence the max bet. When I did lay off though, the price went to 1.5 before then going out to 3.15 and then back again, 20/20 for you, its so quick you know you can do something good and it'll only last for an over, probably going all green was a good thing when T&T were 3.15, then an over later I was wondering why I did it you know. I also have a weird thing on the horses, when I'm at the course and a horse is going well I'd be saying hes cruising what a certainty, while when I'm at home I'm clicking buttons to lay off at 1.07ish, just naturally because the computer is in front of me I get a bit edgy, couldnt explain that one to you either. All these questions you'd swear I dont sleep at night.

I was totally and utterly woeful on the horses in running today. Shocking, desperate, terrible, awful, dreadful, appalling, dire, so bad I might as well have just killed myself and got it over with. Then I remembered St Nicholas Abbey is running Saturday so I better wait on the ole killing oneself. Just wasnt at the races today and gave up pretty soon, noticed I was over €50 behind so called it a day, just one of those bad ones, couldnt call a thing right. Just a quick serious word about something thats bugging me lately, Ladbrokes know absolutely nothing about whats happening in Ballydoyle, so could people stop saying they do please, its starting to get a little annoying! They went best price about St Nic today, they were best price about the gamble yesterday (and priced up Oxxes at 13/8 when he went off 4/1 on Betfair, had ours at 5/4 when it went off 4/6). Stop saying they know. They knew back in the day when other people were working there, but not now, "oh but Ladbrokes are best price, it mustnt be fancied." Load of balls. If you ever hear someone saying that punch them in the face and tell them I'm the daddy! Whether they go under or over the odds with Ballydoyle horses has nothing to do with us, its their odds compilers. Probably no one will read this but anyway there I said it!

Also had a win on innings runs today too so the cricket P&L looks good, someone went 1.3 for 140, when par on the pitch is around 180, went with the max €300 again, same time tomorrow mate if youre around yeah, whoever laid that! Although to be fair to them, its hard when they switch between pitches each day, one pitch around 130 is par while the one today 180 was par. I'm feeling a bit better anyway, reckon the flu is on its way out the door thank god, still alive so it wasnt swine, just in time for St Nic the weekend too, woosh time at Doncaster! The pigeons have no feathers on their arse in Tipperary because of him. As I said before, fook the opposition, until hes beaten I rate him as unbeatable.

Cricket: €192.49 | Horse Racing: -€52.14 Total P&L: €140.35

I've gone for Chelsea this weekend in last man standing, they seem to be going well, their at home, Blackburn arent great, and look the obvious pick this weekend really. Hopefully the other results will knock a few people out but I reckon there'll be over 75% on Chelsea, the stand out pick like. I was going to go with Man City after I saw they signed a new striker, but I'll give him a game to settle into the team before I back them. I reckon he'll prove a better buy than Tevez anyway..

21/10/2009

Still struck down in the prime of life with illness so I'll keep it short. One big boom, one mini boom and a loser today. The €22 was in running on the first race, I soon realised I cant play in running while I've the flu as I'm too slow to react, and basically shite! The main one won so suppose its all good, delighted for Purple Heart to win a race too, I only had a tenner on, the amount of times I've tipped him up this year only for him to let me down.

Theres a cricket match on now and I reckon New South Wales have enough runs to win, bit short at 1.25 though and I hate backing teams to defend a score at low odds so I'll give it a miss, United game is on anyway. No football bets tonight, last night has scared me off!

Hopefully feel a bit better for the weekend, no craic being sick.

Football Bank Kaput Again

Er, what a sport. Like, theres no betting on it at all, who would have thought Barca would lose at home to Rubin Kazan! I've said it before and I'll say it again, absolutely delighted with the start with €25 football bank idea, rather lose €50 than €5,000.. FACT!

My personal view is that football betting is for mugs really, I still love betting on it, but as for taking it seriously with big amounts, never. I've been there so I speak from experience you know, I'm sure theres plenty of people who make money from it, but its such a random sport it just isnt for me.

If I could only give someone two bits of advice my age gambling it would be..
1) Dont bet on football.
2) Dont bet on every horse race.
3) Dont not bet just because its short odds.

Yet everyone interested in gambling in college does those exact three things, and then wonders why they dont win.

Anyway, only got as far as the 3rd bet this time! Delighted last man standing doesnt do the Champions League, I'm eyeing up Chelsea as my pick for the weekend in that competition.

20/10/2009

Five step profitable betting plan for a rainy Tuesday:

Step 1 - Lie on the couch.
Step 2 - Back horse.
Step 3 - Watch horse win.
Step 4 - Collect.
Step 5 - Do a little dance and say BOOOOMM.

Actually have a touch of the flu at the minute so gave college a miss today and lay on the couch all day, didnt have a bet yesterday because of it too. Got one or two place tips, had a few quid on them, the one that was (and I after looking at the race) most fancied finished 3rd so happy days. A handy day just watching the horses, Ruby had two lovely winners, hard to know what they beat but sure they looked good winning anyway so suppose you cant ask anymore than that.

Have the football bank on Barca tonight too.

18/10/2009

Well, Fame And Glory was pants! Not worth getting out of bed for, never mind flying over. Johnny got beaten on another fancied one in Naas today, the first race, the horse will never ever win a race and will be in a can before long if he doesnt cop on to himself, and no, I didnt back him! Going along with the other two 2nds on Friday night, I think thats the end of the flat for me. Real end of season stuff and I reckon I'll just draw a line through it now and move onto the jumping. Apart from that really, not much else happening in the happy land of Mr Maher, got a tip today for Rubys winner in Naas and had a few quid on, I think half of Ireland were on, 9/2 into 7/4, first thing that was said to me when I landed in Dublin airport.

The cricket today was really stupid on my part. Ah, I'll put it down to being "out of touch" after missing a few games, but stupid trading all the same, minus €40 and shouldnt of happened to be honest you know, shouldnt have gone near the game. Stupidity, nothing else to describe it. Just entering the market at the wrong times, niggly little annoying things like that, even if I'd have won, its still something I shouldnt have been betting on in the first place you know. The worst thing was, it was 1.04 after the first innings and I let that go saying to myself I wasnt betting, then when it started to bounce out I got involved only to be burnt, like if I was betting on it that 1.04 - 1.2 trade was mine, and the fact I let that go means I shouldnt have been in the market after, which I ended up doing, which annoys me.

Specials was X-Factor again, laying John & Edward to be bottom two, bit too close for comfort me thinks with a €300 liability. However, the woman, she is shrewd! I suppose they got called out first last week so it makes sense they'd be left til last this time. Bloody nervous times though.

I should also add, my Spurs bet won to get the Betdaq football bank back over €50, I entered Paddy Powers last man standing for the first time ever too, and they got me past the first week, so we'll see how that goes over the next while.

Last two days..
Cricket: -€41.15 | Horse Racing: -€93.77 | Special Bets: €70.63 Total P&L: -€64.29

As for my week, well its been fantastic. Everything went brilliant bar that €250 I ended up having on Fame, knocked the week back a fair bit but you know at 2/1 on Betfair yesterday morning I'll stand by that bet with no complaints. A nice few wins on the cricket this week when I had my arse in gear, today was a small bit annoying to lose but cant win 'em all I suppose. The soccerhoofball was laying off my 0-0 Ireland bet so no worries there. Been a really quiet week, under 20 markets bet on, a good bit of them when I was in Punchestown Thursday so I've not been on betfair at all really this week compared to others, yet still a proper good profit. Some weeks it just goes like that, last week was pants, this week was easy, swings in roundabouts.

I'm starting to see the key to everything is not losing when youre going through bad times, everything is all so easy when youre winning, but when youre in a bit of bad patch, its what you do then it all that matters in the long run I reckon. I loved this week though, I really love gambling! Its nice to be properly in love with it again, maybe during the summer that feeling went a bit, its hard when its an every day grind, but you know its still the best feeling in the world when you back a winner. The you just turn around and go whos the daddy! OR you could do what Maradona does and tell everyone to suck your cock, watch the video, the man has gone up in my estimation.

16/10/2009

Quick post, just waiting for Dundalk to finish to meet a few of the lads to fly over for Fame And Glory tomorrow, never flew into Luton airport before so pretty sure myself and Emma will be getting lost around 11 or so when we land. Seriously good day today, crickets in the last post, was mental, but won on the other match too, a handy run chase. Lost a fiver on my BlueSq bet too, if they'd have let me do the €100 E/W they'd have won more off me, got chinned on the line. Few other horse bets, some won some lost, Johnny told me his best ride was the one in the 7-30 so just lost €100 on that, second after going 1.2 in running, bugger. Coolmores is fairly fancied in the 8-00 now, few stable boys backing it, kept it small because its Dundalk, just had the €50 profit on the horses for the day on it with ladbrokes. Have to leave so wont see it, good luck to everyone for the weekend, come on Fame!

Cricket: €133.54 | Horse Racing: €52.36 Total P&L: €185.90

Had the Betdaq football bank on Spurs too. Will update everything on Sunday night.

Feel The Rhythm..

Feel the rhyme.. Get on up.. Its Kieron Pollard time! I reckon that was greatest, biggest, most amazing 20/20 knock I have ever seen, like wow, 54 off 18 balls, fook me, I couldnt even do that playing stick cricket! Traded the market like a bit of a mug, had massive, massive green on T&T, but squared up at 1.04 when I thought it was over, wanted no loss, then Pollard goes mental. Amazing. Managed to grap a screen shot of the prices matched on New South Wales, I'd guess nearly a few careers on Betfair are over after that one, weve all seen gubbings, but I've never seen one like that, went from 1.03 to 2.1 in one over.

Blue Square

Name and shame time. They wont lay me €200 win, then €100 E/W, then €75 win, then €50 E/W, then €50 win. They have however laid me €25 E/W on the said horse. The account stands at +€1,056.25 having bet €1,750 over nine bets, 3 losers and 6 winners (2 being the same bet). Nine bets since March and I'm limited to €25, gutted. I know I was being seriously cheeky with my last bet there, when they put up the wrong odds on Go Native (5/4, 8/1, 16/1 and 20/1) in a four horse race at Tipperary. Er, how is it my issue they were clueless enough to do that! Really hope the horse wins now even though I wanted €100 E/W and have €25, just to keep taking money off them no matter what it is. Another question, why go best price if you wont lay it? Its a Group 3 and its second favourite, its hardly a big plot is it. I've also just noticed they wont let me do the same bet twice either, was worth a try!

15/10/2009

Serious craic at Punchestown today, great to be back at a national hunt meeting for the first time this year. Still scratching my head how I managed to back the first 3 winners on course and come home with less money than I went with but anyway! Had a bit of a cut on Meades in the bumper which went kaput. Backed a few horses on Betfair mobile, some won some lost, the usual you know. Managed to get a few quid out of Paddy Power again, delighted, he was doing a competition on Facebook about picking the exact minute the first goal was scored in the Ireland game, there was about 400 odd comments from people on Facebook picking a minute, me being the clever fooker I am worked out than picking an exact minute much be massive odds compared to the 17/2 on 0-0. So the very man had to give me €50 on Facebook this morning, couldnt of been happier, put it on Donnas Palm that won just to rub it in a little more for him. By the way, if you do add him on Facebook, dont back any of his tips, hes shite!

Couple of points from todays racing..

1) Winner of the first race is very good. Didnt jump well at all, still won handy enough.
2) Donnas Palm was a handy winner too, Meades in great form.
3) What the fook was Paddy Flood doing on Ponmeoath? He lost about 5L from absolutely nothing probably at the most important time of the race, while on the bridle. Have to say he ran like a non-trier but there was good money for him all day.
4) Harchibald jumped super, why was Sizing Europe cut so much and Harchi hasnt moved for Cheltenham. Wouldnt have Sizing Europe winning an Arkle to be honest.
5) The seats in the restaurant were the most uncomfortable my arse has ever had the pleasure to sit on.
6) Whoever took Meath All Star and Serpentaria away from the Mullins stable is a fool.
7) Voler La Vedette is a serious horse, looked absolutely gorgeous beforehand, did it easily enough too, one to follow for the year I reckon.
8) Is there anything better than a quiet Thursday evening at Punchestown? Dont think so.

14/10/2009

20/20 cricket. Insane. Its for mad people. Its crazy. Got myself into all sorts of bother today on it by switching, it wasnt actually too bad because I switched at "only" 20 ticks higher from the price I backed at. I'd like to think I have sort of a 6th sense for when things are going pear shaped, but normally its more to do with me feeling like "I'd rather have €100 red on one team than €300 red the other." Today was lucky basically, was on the right side of a collapse, for once (ever)! But instead of getting profit, I was delighted with zero, because I had €120 odd red the other side. Er, I could go into great detail about it, but basically the long and short of it is 20/20 is nuts, there was 50 tick swings today for a 6, with about 8 overs still to go. Thats mad like. These swings are fantastic if youre on the right end of them, but Jesus its shite when youre on the wrong end. I wouldnt agree with blindly laying short odds on either because theres always a time and a place you know. Maybe it just doesnt suit my style and I should just keep it small on it. Its difficult because I love cricket and theres so much 20/20 on tv. Like I mean, what can you say about it, all plans seem to just go out the window.

Anyway, I have a question. Why is it when I have €100 on 0-0 it loses, but when I have €25 on it, it wins? Sods law is it? I only did it to follow up on my Ireland bet the weekend just in case it did actually happen, laid off my stake on Betfair at half time. Absolutely delighted to take a few quid off Paddy Power now theyve limited me. Suck it paddy, whos the daddy!

The horses was a place back of Corskeagh Royale at Punchestown around about evens, I thought he was miles better than most of the field. Ran into a small problem by the fact that he couldnt jump, you know er, that tends to help in a chase. One to avoid in the future I reckon. Weapons Amnesty ran a bit of an odd race, he jumped to his left sometimes unbelievable amounts, I dunno about him really, I'd like to watch his next race before I actually back him. A lot may think he'll be great going the other way around and has loads in hand, but you know, it still wasnt a good round of jumping, and it was a poor race.

Thinking about having the €100 I won today on Harchibald tomorrow. I love that horse. I read Noels a bit worried about the trip, but I hear hes schooled well so I'm not too bothered about the trip. Sizing Europe wouldnt bother me too much either, I'd be more afraid of what Ruby will be doing on Bobs Pride. An interesting race anyway, Harchi for me at around the 11/4 - 3/1 mark.

The cricket was zero so I'll leave it out..
Horse Racing: -€50.00 | Soccer: -€64.70 Total P&L: -€114.70

13/10/2009

Got a fantastic tip today. You know, he didnt have to tell me but he did, fair played to him, he knows who he is and he IS the daddy! I was in college too, backed him on Betfair mobile in Business Finance, collected while in Computers seeing he went 1.01 on the phone, then looking around the room smiling knowing I've just backed a winner and everyone else is doing college work. God I love gambling. I really do.

Horse Racing: €385.55 Total P&L: €385.55

Also wish Sea The Stars a happy retirement, I know he'll have evry need and want sorted wherever he goes anyway but best of luck to him he deserves it. And I laid my full stake back on Fame for the weekend, just in case we balls up the pace, the fact its over 1M2F you know. Still delighted with a chance to win €440 for nothing sure, I'm 99% sure he'll win too if things go to plan. The only slight doubt is will they follow the pacemakers, and to be honest I dont blame them if they dont, its a bit stupid running no hopers at 1000/1 because everyone knows they arent good enough to win. Really need to look at the tactics and try get Group 3 types to make the running in the future. I'd be near to giving up on him if he doesnt beat that lot on Saturday though.

12/10/2009

Havent had a bet today, been too busy, but just to tie up a few things from last night, the snooker and the X-Factor finishing.

Snooker: €5.91 | Special Bets: €39.49 Total P&L: €45.40

I see the Racing Post have got involved again today with the whole "is Sea The Stars the best horse ever argument." Two words - utterly pointless. It is ALL fantasy, god I wish people would stop arguing over it. Basically, the fact is not one single person can come up with a 100% definite answer of who the best horse ever is. No idea why people cant seem to accept horses/people/teams for what they are at the time and stop comparing them to something that happened 50 odd years ago. I could care less what happened in the past, its whats happening now that matters sure. If you won €20,000 six years ago but have lost €5,000 every year since, are you great at gambling?

I always view things as a "pleasure to be there" while its happening, it felt great seeing it at the time and thats all that matters to me. Instead we have pointless arguments over something that absolutely everyone will see differently, hence the arguing. If people say "best horse I've ever seen," you know thats fine, but best horse ever, you cant answer that really and truly. Sea The Stars is amazing we should just be pleased to be able to see him while hes around. I'd also hate to think you know that it'd be the best horse I'll ever see, one must always have something to look forward to, otherwise whats the point of going on sure. Although having said all that, I suppose there is one exception to the rule of "the best ever" and his name is Phil Taylor. Now he is the daddy!

Also laid a bit back on Fame overnight to have my book looking like below, flights are booked, punting boots at the ready, 6L clear please Johnny. The fact I have him backed already, I'm going to be seriously selfish and hope Sariska doesnt run, might make it a poor race, but who cares once youre winning.

The Weekend

Ended up in Croker last night for the match so heres the P&L for the last two days..
Cricket: €81.24 | Darts: €12.63 | Horse Racing: -€15.27 | Snooker: €8.57 Total P&L: €87.17

I've to get another six quid off the snooker later but I fancy an early night tonight with no gambling and just to relax. Most of that P&L is from yesterday too, actually lost €33 on Betfair today. I had an absolutely brilliant day with the bookies though picking out the Munster National winner at 10/1, put it up on Facebook and on the side of the blog there, I think its the biggest priced winner I've had since I started that Irish horses thing. Going through handicaps isnt really my thing so I was delighted, not every day you back a 10/1 winner either.

I have to say Croke Park last night was immense even though my bet didnt even last 10 minutes, managed to get two tickets for €100, so much for paying €140 each on ticketmaster eh, never seen the whole crowd standing watching a match in Croker, not even at the GAA, shame it didnt last longer than two minutes until Italy scored again though, we never hold on to a lead, even if it was the 87th minute! Premature ejaculation as a nation. Good craic in town last night though all the same. Really hate when people have a go at Trap, I know were shite, but sure look thats what we are, you can only work with what youre given, I'd rather be crap and get to the playoffs by drawing loads of games than be crap and lose, everyone seems to have forgotten what it was like when Stan was manager.

Anyway back to gambling, and by my own standards I've been woeful this week, everyone has a view of how youre doing things, well I was basically terrible this week. Some awful cricket losses, not big ones just little niggly €50s that shouldnt have been happening, it all adds up. Yesterdays win was, er how do I put it, it wasnt lucky but it wasnt smart either, I backed a team at 1.65, sat and watched the other team matched at a low of 1.06, then to see the team I've backed come back and win. I was talking the other day about having a big set of balls for 20/20 cricket so I just basically went with that idea. I'm pretty sure the few losses in a row isnt a random thing either, I put it down to it being 20/20, I dont think I'm too fantastic at it to be honest.

I dont think it gives me the time to trade probably, its so quick like and momentum changes about ten times during an innings, thats why I have my head thinking now to viewing every bet I do as a straight up bet. It really worked yesterday, you know to decide what exactly youre doing before it happens, if I wasnt sure yesterday I'd of been panicking watching the other team go 1.06 etc, where as I was sitting here going for fook sake what a bunch of tossers I've had my money on, but at the same time even though I was going mad it was still the right thing to be doing by not doing anything. I'm delighted Somerset won because if they failed to chase down 150ish on that pitch with the wickets they gave away, the tv would have been broken, laptop smashed, cat kicked, windows put through, it would have been terrible.

This whole week has been a disaster really not just the cricket. Snooker bet with the phone going dead was an awful feeing, I dont blame the phone really I still did the bet in the first place so stand by it, Ronnie missing a sitter was highly annoying, something that goes 1.01 and you dont make money isnt good enough either from my point of view. And the horses, well a Ballydoyle gamble went kaput on Friday night at Dundalk, but I did back other winners, just that was the main one. No excuses this week at all, no reason for losing, no teams/people letting me down. This week was all me not being good enough. I'm always going to get those weeks I suppose though, so just put a line through it and move on. That horse winning in Limerick today was unreal, I cant say how important it was, just completely puts a different look on the week and basically knocks off the Betfair loss. I still dont want to lose on Betfair as its the most important part of my gambling, but when youve had a bad week, just that winner today was fantastic.

Also got a good few quid matched on Fame And Glory today for the English Champion Stakes, I didnt "take" the money that was up, I knew he was rated as "more than a 60/40 chance of running" but its not really my style to take money there when I have sort of "inside info." I put money up on the lay side and someone has been kind enough to take it so cheers! It'll be some result if he wins now. Not sure if I'll lay back my stake at some stage (my average odds 8/1), I see hes down to 2.5 now, William Hill went 4/6 I think and Paddy Power go 11/10. Looking at the race, I think he'll win if we dont mess up the pace, price has gone now though. There was also a rumor at The Curragh today that Sea The Stars' coat has been clipped and their thinking of the Breeders Cup now, I havent had a bet in that market yet and wont be going to. I spoke to Mickey Joe after the Arc and he said he didnt want to run, I was tempted to lay him then, now I tempted to back him hearing about the clipping, I reckon the two feelings cancel each other out so no bet and watch will be my plan. I'm also sick of losing money all year on him, however I did say that before the Arc and still lost €250, I say a lot of things.

Ireland v Italy

Tonight 8-00 in Croke Park. 0-0 at 6/1 with Paddy Power, worth €100 for me, shorter on Betfair at the moment (6.8 minus comm) and likely to go even shorter near kickoff. Italy only need a draw to go through and Ireland only need two points from two games for a playoff, once there isnt a goal in the first 30mins should be a really good bet.

Just probably need to get past that 30min mark without too much trouble, the fact both teams only need a draw means their unlikely to be "going for it" if its 0-0 with 20 odd minutes to go. Its a risky bet though, one mistake and its in the back of the net, its worth the chance though. I dont particularly like Powers but their doing a good special tonight, you get your money back if Robbie Keane scores the last goal. If Italy do go 1-0 up, Ireland really have a limited number of "goalscorers" but hes one of the key men so that has a good shout of getting a second chance, he takes the peno's too.

Basically, I think both teams will be delighted with a 0-0. A point puts Italy through, and a point means we wont have a "must win" game against Montenegro on Wednesday. Everyone knows what Italy are like for defending, I'd guess Trapattoni wont be wanting to take too many risks either. Just be hoping there isnt a goal from a corner, free kick or something like that. God knows what an early goal will do to the game though!

09/10/2009

Poor day, really poor day. Disappointed with the cricket loss because I couldnt really get a handle on how the pitch was playing so all the trades that I did I was guessing to be honest, wasnt 100% when doing stuff, which is a quick way to the poor house. Kept things small enough, because of a hangover, lost €50 on each game, when my biggest liability was €60, shows you how bad I was.

The loss on the horses is simple to explain. Backed Trojan War at Dundalk, no excuses, wasnt good enough to win to be honest, fingers burnt at Ballydoyle this evening from him, 6/4 (Betfair) into 4/9 today most if not all of it us. As I've said countless times before, you can only bet on what you think will happen and sure it was wrong. I said today I hated Dundalk on a Friday night, only to be pulled up by the general manager, of all the people to hear me! Things never seem to go to plan there at all, I know theres no such thing as "jinxes" but you know it doesnt stop you from thinking it. Thats not an excuse though, I have to say if that horse was anywhere else bar Dundalk it would have been a much bigger bet and probably still beaten. Thats life. Nothing else to it.

Cricket: -€99.25 | Horse Racing: -€140.00 Total P&L: -€239.25

I hate days like this so much its unreal. You work so hard to build up a few days profit and then its all gone in one day, annoying! I'll probably play smallish for the weekend now and try to win this back. If I had to pick something to be really annoyed about, I say the cricket today, that was my own stupidity. Where as the horse was just a fancied one going kaput you know, that works out over time and I'll end up in profit. But the cricket today, my head wasnt there. 20/20 again, two 1.01 trains, two games I shouldnt have been betting on really looking back, easy after to say that when youve lost obviously, but if I cant work out what the pitch is like I should be betting on it. Take away that €100 loss and you only have a €140 loss, which is a hell of a lot better, it makes a serious difference at the end of each week. I just want to avoid the losses that can be avoided, the horses couldnt of been but the cricket could.

08/10/2009

Had a cunning plan in place on the cricket today, laid Bangalore at 1.16 at the start of the Cape Cobras chase, Gibbs was opening. The thinking was if he got going the price would fly out, but if he got out I would probably lose around 10 ticks or so (around that), and then if he got off to a flyer and then got out I wouldnt lose any ticks maybe 3 or 4 but thats not much at all. So, well worth the bet. Only slight problem being that Mr Gibbs got out the very first ball. Not exactly what I had in mind. Sure enough lost the 8 ticks and red one side, €50 the other. The pitch was so good didnt feel the need of going all red.

I have to say watching the rest of the game, I really wanted to lay some more, really did. I was afraid to make things worse though, I already had €100 red, lay some more and that becomes €150 or €200 and then becomes a big-ish loss. I've discovered in the last few weeks that the things you do wrong affect everything else more than the things you do right. The bet that went wrong cost me, and the bet I wanted to do but didnt because of the other one would have won buckets of money, as anyone who reads the blog, I always lay low odds on cricket, even got a flip flop from 1.04! You know, being big headed in all honesty it should have been a plus €500 win, I feel like I've missed out. But my point, the bad trade got in the way of all the "good ones" (good ones being what I wanted to do but didnt). Cant say I love 20/20 to be honest, I'm still fishing around for a proper thing to do with it, have some balls and hold on or trade in and out quickly. Its a hard one. I laid a losing 1.16 shot today for €1,000 and only won €50. Very easy to get caught up in every ball in this form of the game, so much happens in a short space of time there also a lot of switches as to whos in front. I like 50/50 because I'm more think to sort things out, but 20/20 needs a bit of work. I'm favouring the "hold on" tactic, view bets as straight bets.

That "fly out" trade at the start of an innings is priceless on pitches like todays, it'll come off more times than not. The bounce out factor from the small odds (1.0x's) is a great trade too on good pitches. By the way, the team names, the Champions League 20/20 started today (Eurosport) so you'll see me waffling on about all sorts of mad teams in the next few days. As usual we'll get a few short price gubbings, its in India after all, and seriously is seems some big punters from over there dont really care what prices they take, price crashes today have been crazy. That said, if they have €200,000 its going to cause the market to fall, but to false prices while their desperate to get matched. Hopefully the English teams do well in it.

I must add that I'm absolutely delighted to win as always and not having a moan, just you know the wrong things affecting the right things is something I want to remember. I dont think theres anything you can do about it either. There'll always be that feeling at the back of your head, and if you dont have that feeling, you'd be on the chase more times than not and lose that way I suppose. Its a struggle to be perfect when theres no such thing as perfection. I also have to say JP Duminys knock was one of the best I have ever seen. Anyway, off to the freshers ball to perv on the new first years!

Cricket: €47.60 Total P&L: €47.60

07/10/2009

Having a major mental breakdown moment here. Ronnie O Sullivan. Its a long story, I'm not seething that I actually lost money, more so the way it panned out, but even more so Ronnie chucking it away the eejet, at least I wasnt an unlucky 1.01 backer anyway. €150 at 1.74 was my bet via Betfair mobile while visiting my Grandad for the afternoon, cup of tea and watch the snooker etc, backed Ronnie at good odds no issue with that. Then the phone goes dead so the bet becomes a straight one and not a trading one, which I had not planned. You know, I cant answer the question of whether or not I would have traded out, all I know is I wasnt given the option.

Heres my problem, O'Sullivans 3-2 up, Higgins misses a red and if Ronnie gets it its frame ball and goes 4-2, I'm shouting at the tv "dont go for it, dont go for it, dont go for it" it was far too hard and he was 20 points ahead, he went for it, missed it, left it on, Higgins cleaned up and its 3-3. Seething. Absolutely seething. I'd wrote off the bet weirdly enough at that moment, but of course no phone to trade out. Then to really kick it in it goes 4-3 Ronnie and then he proceeds to miss a sitter to win the match, Higgins clears up for 4-4 and then gets a century for 5-4. Gutted at the phone going dead, although wouldnt know if it had made a difference, more seething at Ronnie for throwing it away.

Now, I'm having a no contact with other people evening, jog, gym and bed. I'm so annoyed I actually dont have a word for it. Had one other bet since yesterday on a horse in Tipperary who won, so its not all bad. Just to back something at 1.74, it to go 1.01 to lay and still lose, oh dear. I know if I hang around the house I'll definitely lose money on whatever sports on later, and I know if I actually talk to someone I'll definitely kill them. Going the gym in these situations is of great help I reckon, I'll work out for hours and not feel a single thing because my head will be thinking about the bet, good for fitness and discipline, basically theres no wrong in it, once no one asks me to talk to them. I have to do something anyway because I can feel myself ticking. Ronnie you fooking tosser! I honestly am feeling sorry for the 1.01 backers too.