30/04/2009

Fantastic day ending with just over €815 profit, it was only a half day betting too as I had an exam at one until three. My cricket bet would have been very profitable again today if I'd done it every innings, but I only got to do it once, and I'm not very keen on doing it when a team is chasing but every game is different. The darts market was a bit disappointing tonight with just over €50,000 matched in the Barney v Lewis match, I had laid Barney at 1.4 for €500 and was waiting a good while to green out at evens or bigger, when normally it would have been taken, I've never seen it that bad before and wouldnt be too keen playing big stakes in it from now on until it looks better. William Hill were going 4/6 no 180 in the first leg between Part and Jenks tonight, that was good value as it takes Jenks a while to get going and Part had changed his darts for tonight, didnt have a bet on the other two matches.

Fancied the bumper favourite in Punchestown and that was my only horse bet today, bet365 were a bit slow to change the price, it was 10/11 and trading lower on Betfair, I really like doing those bets when the bookies are higher than Betfair. Last night was a good example, United 4/5 with the bookies and 1.79 on Betfair, no need to be taking the price on Betfair and paying commission too. People will say they take it for trading, but surely you can have enough money in your account to manage positions. If I bet with the bookies on football I tend to leave it in running though no matter what happens. Nothing worse than changing your position in a match when things go wrong, then the game turns around and what would have been a winning bet is now a losing one, its the one thing that messes with your head more than anything else.

Cricket: EUR108.66 | Darts: EUR123.25 Total P&L: EUR231.91

29/04/2009

The first IPL match was a disaster as I said in the earlier post today, every trade went against me and I was always chasing the market. Never chase the market in 20/20. Although, I'm happy in the sense that I kept my head and wasnt looking at something like €20 green on one team and €1,500 red on the other, I'd rather be €250 all red or so, learned those lessons in the past, thats the only good thing that came out of the match to be honest. Played the second game well and should have won more for sure, but I let the first loss get in the way and went green way too soon, if I hadnt have lost over €300 on the first match I would have let the bet run a little longer like normal and it would have paid off, I was afraid to lose two games on the bounce though.

Its amazing how people always say taking days off from gambling is important. I took the last two days off completely away from cricket, came back this morning and just felt a bit out of touch in the market, it moves so fast and theres no time for thinking too much about stuff, you need to get on with it and I was slow in making decisions. Didnt plan on having a bet in Punchestown today after how poorly yesterday went but got a text saying Dunguib was out to evens, I had to back it at that price, he was so impressive too hes a machine. Backed United to beat Arsenal after that, it was a brilliant day with the bookies by all accounts. The cricket runs bet on the opening betsmen would have won again if I'd done it a second time too, have an exam tomorrow so wont get to back it again, but I'll be checking if the runs were under 20 when I get back.

Cricket: -EUR253.94 Total P&L: -EUR253.94

Cricket

Cricket, when a team are batting in 20/20, is not a team sport. Its all about what that one batsman facing the ball does, forget the rest of them sitting in the hutch. The fielding side is a different matter all together though, so is team spirit, but its all down to the guy facing the ball at the time. Just look at how the market reacts to a wicket. Anyway, talked a few days ago that it might be profitable to back unders on the two batsman opening. Both will have a line over 20 normally and both will be 5/6, if you have €150 on both you just need one out early to make a €25 loss, with the chance of the two of them going early and you then win €250.

It goes without saying, you can only do this bet when certain batsman are opening and its very important to know what the batsmen are like, for example, never back under on Gayle, Hayden, Gibbs etc. Also, I wouldnt be too keen doing this bet on a team chasing a total, or against a team with weak bowlers with the new ball, or on what looks a good pitch. Aswell as that always look around because all bookies will have different lines, today on bet365 the lines were 3 runs under William Hill and the same price, so I was getting more runs value with William Hill for the same price.

Didnt make it out of bed in time for the first innings to kick off in the first match, when I turned on the computer Gayle was on 14 I think and settled well, massive fan of him when he gets going and backed over the line with William Hill again. Really didnt trade the game well at all though and made a loss of €310 or so on Betfair, will post it later, just couldnt do anything right, everytime I entered the market it went against me. Its one of the things I'm working on at the minute, when I'm all red early in a game I seem to find it really hard to pick out the next trade or bet, always seem to be waiting for the odds to creep out that little bit more and it doesnt work often, plus you get a biggish loss when things go really bad like this morning. If I gave one tip for cricket trading, it would be to try and sit on your hands for the first innings and not bet, then get involved during the second innings. And if you must lay during the first innings, make sure the price is under 1.5ish.

Punchestown Tuesday

Have to say I'm not feeling the late starts this week, would normally be leaving for the course around this time and I'm sitting here wondering how to kill an hour, wont be around for all the days of the festival, but have some free time now and thought I'd put up my bets for today before I leave..

Freneys Well 3.45 Punchestown.
A hard race to call with all the unknowns over the course, the main reason I'm backing him is because he comes from the Enda Bolger stable, and we all know how good over banks his horses are. One worry would be the horse doesnt win that often and has a good few seconds so you wouldnt want to be lumping on at the short odds. Wedger Pardy has been trained just for this race and I can see plenty of money coming for him on course if word goes around, a hard race to pick the winner.

Go Native 4.20 Punchestown.
I love this horse. If Noel Meade would let me, I'd marry this horse. Anyway, looking through his form I cant understand why hes 4/1 again, hes been given no respect by the bookies and punters nearly the whole season. If you watch the Leopardstown race again where Hurricane Fly beat him 10L, nothing went right for Go Native that day. He hit the last hurdle so hard and they went an awfully slow pace, Hurricane is the speed horse and if they dont go a good gallop he'll win the sprint home. But at the prices, I have to be on Go Native again, he showed how good he was at Cheltenham and Carberry suits him down to the ground. I think hes far better than everyone thinks he is, I accept Hurricane Fly is very talented too and it'll be a great race.

Jewel Of The West 4.55 Punchestown.
A wide open race and you could nearly pick six and still not find the winner. Hopefully they'll go a fast pace early and he can come into the race from the back with two hurdles to jump. He should have won the last day at Fairyhouse so he might be well in at the weights and would have been a shorter price here had he won that day. Hes a hard horse to call right though, so wouldnt be lumping on. Native Clan is a worthy favourite.

Big Zeb 6.05 Punchestown.
Hes probably odds against to jump around looking through his form. However, hes a very talented horse and with a good round of jumping he could well trouble Master Minded. I lumped on Master Minded at Cheltenham and have to say wasnt impressed by him at all there, no value in backing him at 1/3 today on soft ground so Big Zeb might be worth a little bet at 11/2 or so.

Joncol 6.40 Punchestown.
Delighted with the jockey booking, but I hope he doesnt go too hard too early. Again, Joncol is a very talented horse and has impressed me all season. I respect Cooldine after the great race he ran at Cheltenham but I'm a little worried what that form is worth with Horner Woods finishing second. Joncol is the fresh horse and I'm happy to take the 7/2 about him to win today. Also, not sure if its important or not but Cooldine did have a little set-back after Cheltenham, Willie Mullins will have him ready for the job today but I'm happily in the Joncol camp.

Overall, a really nice card to kick off the festival. Plenty of people will be jumping on the Ruby bandwagon today but I dont buy into the three of them being good things. At the prices Go Native and Joncol are great bets in my view. Looking forward to going to the course to back them, I only get to go today and tomorrow. Had two bets for the challenge last night with Paddy Power and the screen shots below.

26/04/2009

Well, did lots of things wrong today but finished nicely in profit at the end of it. Saved all red positions in both IPL matches, and ended up winning a good bit in the second game. How the hell were a team 1.5 to chase 140 under lights at Newlands, theyve had four games there so far, three wins for the team batting first and a tie with Chris Gayle in the team chasing that time, took on the market big time at the break and it paid off. Threw away a bit at the end laying Punjab at 1.04 and 1.03, no idea why Rajasthan didnt throw the bat at it near the end, one or two sixes and the market would be flying out again but it wasnt to be.

Got up late today and missed the GP and the early cricket runs markets on bet365, was just thinking I couldnt back them in the second innings because I was laying the team chasing, never thought it might be an idea to back under the handicap, it would have been very profitable today. But when youve got a big position on Betfair its best to just stick to working on that and forget about what the bookies are doing.

Cricket: EUR300.75 Total P&L: EUR300.75

This week has been fantastic, really fantastic. I think was just a few euro over €4,000 last friday night and I'm at €7,500 now. Nice to have the cricket everyday and I've been lucky with a few calls on the football, and one or two good tips on the horses. Its not really the time of year to be backing horses, even though punchestown is on next week and I cant wait. Have exams in-between and there'll be a good few days next week where I dont have a bet for the challenge. It wont be a totally blank week, but it might be near to it. Anyway, its sunday so heres the Betfair screen shot for the last week.

25/04/2009

Half time in the match and the prices are as follows:

Man Utd - 6
Tottenham - 1.59
Draw - 4.6

I'm a United fan, but that price is insane, spurs are 2-0 up wouldnt you be laying United for your whole bank! Cant have a bet because I really hope it finishes 3-2 United and I'm going to turn off the computer after this post, such an odd market.

Anyway, today was good but I felt a bit let down by the way I traded the cricket. They have a time-out of seven and a half minutes after 10 overs in the IPL and it really, really, really doesnt help the batting side. I laid off all my red on Deccan, because I knew there might be a wicket after the break, why didnt I go all green at that time though, I dont know. Kicking myself as it all went basically terrible for Mumbai after that. I had a massive green on Mumbai, thinking it was going to be my biggest win of the IPL so far, should have just taken equal profit when they were trading at 1.35 at the time-out, ended up backing Deccan at 1.29 just to get something out of the game. It makes sense now, but its easy when the games finished.

Cricket: EUR102.98 | Snooker: EUR55.22 Total P&L: EUR158.20

24/04/2009

Nice result on the cricket today. Only got to see the second innings but was on the right team at evens at the break, bit annoyed I went all green at 1.3 because the chase looked so easy two balls later, but thats just me being greedy. Seen Ravi Bopara being interviewed the other day and he basically said his job was to bat through the overs and get as many singles and twos as he could early and then start kicking on after 15 overs, thought bet365s line on Bopara was low, it doesnt take long to get over 20ish runs in 20/20, youre just basically betting on the player not getting out early when the line is so low. Seriously though, why cant Bopara do that for England?

Cricket: EUR100.91 Total P&L: EUR100.91

The Darts

With all the fuss over the IPL players blog and the cricket being a tie last night, I forgot I had a bet on the darts, William Hill were a bit high with Van Barnevelds line on the three dart averages and I backed under 99.5 yesterday afternoon while watching the cricket. Completely forgot about it (too busy dancing around the room after the tie!) and it was a nice surprise when I signed in this morning. Anyway, going off into town for a bit of lunch and shopping so not sure if I'll be betting today, but want to be back in time for the second innings between Bangalore and Punjab, really want to see KP put on a show.

Amazing Blog

Just been given the link to this one, its absolutely amazing. Its an actual IPL player who doesnt get a game writing about the whole team and all the rows etc theyve been having in the camp over the last month. Its quite funny if you get some of the names, the team hes talking about is Kolkata and theres some big names in it, Lord Almighty is Sourav Ganguly and Calypso King is Chris Gayle. Of the other teams, Paedophile Priest is Adam Gilchrist, Sheikh of Tweak is Shane Warne and Prince of Patiala is Yuvraj Singh, took me a while to work that one out. Imagine if it were a Premiership player doing this, it would be class. He says how everyone in the camp knows about the blog now and theyve had teams meetings about it too. I reckon its real, he seems to know whats going on too much for it to made up. Its only four days old and look at the interest in it!

http://fakeiplplayer.blogspot.com/

23/04/2009

What a day! Unbelievable luck with the tie on the second IPL match today, I was €270 red Rajasthan and €150 red Kolkata, it ended a tie which voids the market, I was delighted! Two brilliant games today and great for trading if you were doing the right things, I was in fantastic form in the first match between Chennai and Delhi, and was €200 all green by the start of the second innings. Havent got much free time at the minute so popped down to the gym after I went all green, by the way never go to the gym without an iPod, it was terrible.

Came back and basically was just useless on the second game, was all red for €50 and tried to get back into the market, made myself all red for €150 and couldnt do a thing right really, thank god it was a tie! Lost €50 on the super over after it and looking back now it was really stupid to have a bet on it, I was so hyper after the tie though I wasnt thinking. Anyway, took bet365 to the cleaners today on the cricket and the screen shots below, they were way off the mark with their handicap lines.

Cricket: EUR146.41 Total P&L: EUR146.41

22/04/2009

Arent the blonde cheerleaders at the IPL amazing? Yeah they are! Anyway, played the cricket like a complete mug today, not because of the cheerleaders though I only noticed them when I was all red. Was minus €80ish both teams and I laid €6,000 at 1.01 near the end, the odds bounced out to 1.05 but did I trade out, nope! I'm a greedy bugger and was waiting for the price to hit the 1.1 mark or so, didnt happen but I'm not too worried about it as its not too big of a loss and I'll move on without giving it much thought.

Fantastic day on the horses finishing €550 in profit on them for today, delighted with that, mostly down to Ladies Best at Epsom. Backed it win and place and Betfair, also E/W in Paddy Power, he ran a cracker to finish 4th and would have finished much closer had he got a better run through. Backed a horse in Ireland after with Paddy Power aswell, took 2/5 but got paid at 4/9 with their guaranteed price rule which is nice I suppose. Wont be having a bet on the footie tonight so its an early finish and off to the pictures to relax and hold hands, hopefully she'll pay, if she doesnt I'm coming home for the second half.

Cricket: -EUR166.96 | Horse Racing: EUR268.02 Total P&L: EUR101.06

21/04/2009

Played the cricket well again today and caught an early flip flop in the Punjab v Kolkata match. Went all green pretty quickly as there was rain about and I thought the D/L would help the team I laid, they won in the end and its always nice to win money even though youve been wrong really by laying them at a point. Most times when I enter a cricket market, I go in with the thinking of the team I'm laying winning the match, but view it as all about where the odds will go. I think it actually helps me because in the back of my head I'm nearly ready to lose if things to pear shaped, its hard to explain.

But laying isnt always about teams or players losing full stop, its about what way the odds will go and greening up (or reducing liability). Say for example I lay €400 at 1.6, whatever it may be keep the red under €300 or so, if the odds on the team I've laid are creeping back to evens I'll feed a bit of my green back at evens and make your red say €150 to €100, depends how confident you are at the time really but always feed a bit back when youve got your flip flop. Then depending on what happens next you have lots of options, say the team youve laid are in a stronger position you can basically still back them and go zero both sides and move on, or on the other hand their odds might keep going out and you can green out as you please. But never leave a big red until the death in limited over cricket, no matter what.

Erm, I dont exactly know what to say about the football, 4-4 again! Basically, who was laying Arsenal at 6.2 before the game, and even more so at 2.7 after the first goal and 2.4ish at half time, I know they won their bet but still think of value. The market couldnt believe for a minute Arsenal were going to win. I had €300 on Arsenal at 6 on Betfair before kick off and couldnt believe how high they were at half time, I was never going to green at that price. I was sitting here calling Liverpool names when they came back to 2-1, but at 3-2 to Arsenal greened out (bottled it!!) for €500 at 1.7 or so, it was a bit of a panic move pressing the enter button a lot harder than usual!

Still cant believe it finished 4-4, I was dancing around the room at 4-3 to Arsenal, gutted at the end but the P&L makes it feel a bit better that I got money out of it at least, but still gutted. Delighted to see Stevie Gerrard on sky sports though after it, he so didnt want to be there, even though Arsenals first goal was a full yard onside the linesman might have given it offside because "its at the kop end and its very loud." Ah yeah Stevie..

Cricket: EUR115.43 | Soccer: EUR476.00 Total P&L: EUR591.43

William Hill And Chris Gayle

Just flicking though the snooker markets on William Hill this morning and seen they were making massive mistakes on the frame betting between Ding Junhui v Liang Wenbo in the 18th and 19th frames. Over 100 points was 28/1 and in the other market under 100 points was 28/1 aswell! Obviously a mistake by them but no harm chancing your arm and backing it. Sure enough both were losers, what luck! How lucky they were actually because one of the frames finished exactly on 100 points. But credit were credits due really they voided the markets, most people like to have a go at bookmakers, but it was a loser at the end of the day and I wouldnt have complained if they'd have kept my money. Anyway, looked for something to back with the €200 they gave me back, thought I owed it to them to bet it with them and picked out Chris Gayle to score over 23.5 runs in the second innings between Punjab v Kolkata, he is by far my favourite cricketer, when he starts teeing off theres no one better than him to watch.

20/04/2009

Wont waffle on too much as it was a fairly quiet half day, have to say I was pretty stupid on the cricket, but it was a 1.01 train of sorts and I ever play them well. Jumped on at 1.6 and off at 1.34 Chennai but then reversed and put €50 red on them and about €350 green on Bangalore. With 20/20 cricket I always think there might be a bounce out of the odds and you can green for a healthy profit, but they never went over 1.4 after I reversed and I was left feeling a little silly having been €50 green with the last trade. Theres a time and place for dipping in and out of the market, I was green so early in the match and I couldnt sit on my hands for the rest of it which is disappointing in regards to discipline. Had a place lay picked out for Tramore this evening and sure enough it finished 6th so that was good and gets back the silly cricket loss, nice to have a good winning day on the horses on Betfair, feels like ages since I had one.

Cricket: -EUR50.00 | Horse Racing: EUR95.20 Total P&L: EUR45.20

Also if anyone wants to leave a comment.. What does everyone think about sex with twins? My mate was telling me the other day that hes been having sex with his girlfriend, and her twin. Pretty keen on the idea I was wondering how he could tell them apart really, asked him and he said "oh its easy, her brothers got a moustache!" Hes always been a bit weird..

19/04/2009

Another good day here but it wasnt without its worries, the cricket went fantastic again and I was €125 all green before the start of the second innings. Decided now to give the second game a miss as I have to go out in a little while. The tennis was Nadal winning the Monte Carlo Masters (backed at 1.4ish) but he didnt play too well at times and I was a bit nervous watching it. And the horses today were a bit of a nightmare, backed four horses, three lost but Johnny got me out of trouble on Stately Home (the last bet!), who did it nicely. Fame And Glory was very, very impressive today giving away 5lbs, no point taking the 8/1 now though after the race with AP having a few more still to come out.

Overall on the challenge, delighted that todays P&L puts me over the €5,000 mark after just seven weeks. I didnt think things would go this well starting with such a small bank and hopefully it will continue. Have two weeks of college exams starting the 27th of this month so things might slow down a little bit over the next while but cant wait until I'm finished college completely for the summer and can kick on everyday with getting to €100,000! I dont really expect to do it this summer and I'd be delighted to get over or near to €20,000 by August being honest. Hopefully I can keep moving forward anyway, its a big challenge in itself just not to lose in this game.

Cricket: EUR119.95 | Horse Racing: EUR11.85 | Soccer: EUR0.01 | Tennis: EUR111.86 Total P&L: EUR243.67

Fantastic P&L on the soccer today! Actually gutted because I backed 0-0 United v Everton and traded out at the same price because of the way the horses were going at the time, didnt want to lose too much, no idea how I won the one cent though, I'm not complaining as it all adds up. Anyway, heres the Betfair screen shot for the week..

18/04/2009

A fantastic day here ending with a profit of over €750! Thanks in most part to the cricket and taking the market on at low odds, the IPL started today and have to say I did everything right, didnt make a wrong move. Won just over €200 on the first match and just over €300 on the second match, laying teams at 1.5 and as low as 1.2, I did trade out so I couldnt lose but left all the profit on the team I fancied in each match and it paid off today, nice to kick off the 20/20 season with such a good win.

Its been a while coming since I started the blog, I think this is the biggest winning day so far and I'm delighted with that, its been hard work playing in small stakes against the big boys of Betfair and maybe not getting my rewards some days but you have to keep going. Got a late tip for the Bolger horse over in Newmarket so had €100 on it at 9/4 with Paddy Power and the screen shots below, stayed away from the horses on Betfair today as I'm not playing them well so best take a break I think. Just made plans to go tonight so I can celebrate a good day the proper way, by getting twisted!

Cricket: EUR533.72 Total P&L: EUR533.72

17/04/2009

Just back from a long jog, quite possibly one of the most frustrating days trading cricket I've ever had. I'm sure people thought I was mad jogging the streets talking to myself at nine on a friday night. Traded the Saffers and Australia match and was going fantastic, had €600 green Saffers and €80 red Aussies, refuse to go all green and let it ride. Then wickets start falling and the Aussies go 1.45, I lay that and it bounces back to evens and I'm sitting on €1,600 green on the Saffers with a little-ish red on the Aussies after taking some of the evens.

Still refuse to go all green, the Saffers fall apart and I end up taking 1.07 on the Aussies to get €20 out of it. People may say well so what you've won, but jesus I sat here all afternoon and traded myself into a great position and because I was too greedy I mess it up. Completely my fault I didnt win over €500 when it was there in front of me for the taking but I was greedy, horrible feeling after, but the jog got it out of my system hopefully. A lesson learned to always take your green when trading cricket, it really is a sport were anything can happen, I normally do always take equal profit thats what hurts the most right now.

Still playing the horses poorly again and gave up after three races, just going through a bad patch it seems but I've got to play myself out of it and thats the only thing you can do. The tennis bet was €500 on Nadal at 1.03 in Monte Carlo to win his match today, on him for the tournament aswell.

Cricket: EUR18.39 | Horse Racing: EUR4.72 | Tennis: EUR14.28 Total P&L: EUR37.39

Word from Ballydoyle this morning is that Mastercraftsman didnt work too well, nothing to be worried about I dont think though. I'm still in the Rip Van Winkle camp and wouldnt be too worried who Johnny rides.

16/04/2009

Wont say much as theres someone here, battled well to get back the earlier losses on the horses but still finished behind and I'm not playing too well in running of late. Its hard with the flat starting and the jumping not quite finished yet, you've got a race from Cheltanham and then five minutes later a race from Newmarket and I was just making silly mistakes. Played the darts well for the first time in a few weeks, didnt get to play the last two matches though. Tomorrow sees the first evening meetings kick off and hopefully it'll be a fantastic summer.

Darts: EUR63.78 | Horse Racing: -EUR68.35 Total P&L: -EUR4.57

Delegator Bet

Poor day so far in running here, got my colours mixed up at Cheltenham and dropped €170 on the race, still playing though and hoping to get back to level. The darts tonight might help matters but had a bet on Delegator at Newmarket with Paddy Power and its below, hopefully can kick on now after half an hour away from Betfair.

United To Beat Porto Bet

15/04/2009

Poor enough day here and an annoying day. Backed Rockhampton at 7.4 for €250 to win €1,600, thought Johnny had him bit far back and he could never get to the front two who werent stopping. Played well in running for the most part but still annoyed not to get back in front as I did a few silly things towards the end of the day, looked at the P&L to see I was €50 down and decided to call it a day. Hopefully United will do the business against Porto tonight.

Horse Racing: -EUR49.92 Total P&L: -EUR49.92

14/04/2009

Chelsea v Liverpool, what a game of football. Some unbelievable prices traded in running and I'm sure lots of people have won a lot, and lost! I said I was taking a day off today but I couldnt help myself when I saw Liverpool trading at 1.2 at half time, I had to lay it for €500. The plan was to always green up for €100 if Chelsea got it back to 2-1 and I did. Didnt see the 4-4 coming though!

Soccer: EUR95.20 Total P&L: EUR95.20

Tomorrow sees AP O'Briens first runner in England, Rockhampton, who won last time out at Leopardstown over the same distance as tomorrows race. He'd been working very well up to running there and managed to get the lads out of a hole in the last race that day after landing some big bets. AP hasnt hit top form yet and the horses are needing the run, but this fella is flying. Liberation coming back from Dubai looks to be the likely favourite but it does seem to take a while for the horses to adjust after coming back to England and it may pay to go with the Coolmore horse this time. Hes a fantastic chance tomorrow having already had a run, whereas most of main dangers at the top of the market are having their first run of the season. The post go 11/2 on the tissue and he wont be that big, hes very well fancied.

Also a note on Black Bear Island, who ran in France the weekend, he finished 3rd but it was a very eye-catching run. If you havent seen it go watch the video now, hes a very exciting horse.

Fairyhouse Tuesday

A much needed day off for me today and a day at the races to relax and hopefully back a few winners, wont go into detail but a few horses I like the look of today..

Coffee Tea Or Me 2.25 Fairyhouse at 2/1.

Head Of The Posse 2.55 Fairyhouse at 11/2 (NAP).

Reisk Superman 3.25 Fairyhouse at 13/2.

Time Electric 4.00 Fairyhouse at 6/1.

Themoonandsixpence 4.35 Fairyhouse at 9/2.

Wheels Up 5.05 Fairyhouse at 6/1.

Desert Dual 5.35 Fairyhouse at 5/1.

Wont be backing any of them for the challenge but will back them on course, looking forward to a full day off from Betfair. Good luck to everyone playing today.

13/04/2009

Well the golf didnt go as planned last night really, I was against the top three on the leader board but fair played to them getting into the playoff. They really were so nervous though and I'm still amazed they made it that far. I had massive green the rest of the field, especially backing Tiger and Mickelson after backing them at big odds. Losing €150 wont kill me though and I can keep moving forward, the worst thing to do is panic in these situations and go and lose over €400. I'd no idea who was going to win the playoff so going equal red was the only thing I could do in the end.

Golf: -EUR148.33

Anyway, with the golf out of the way and nine meetings on today I played well for the most part. Dropped a few quid at Fairyhouse on the National and the race before it and was a good bit down, but played well in running overall for a small enough profit on the horses. Backed the first winner at Fairyhouse with Bet365 as they were best priced this morning and thats below. Laid Australia in the cricket when they went sub 1.6 and that went really well and was able to go €120 all green quite quickly and focus on getting back level on the horses after the early losses. I really am nackered now after the day, race after race with no breaks does take its tole, more so when you're trying to nose in front after dropping a few quid early and I'm looking forward to lying on the couch now to relax for an hour or two.

Gutted to hear that Wichita Lineman died today after his early fall in the National, what an amazing race he ran at Cheltenham and it just goes to show what can happen in this game. We really should take every chance to go and see these superstars in action as much as we can, some people wont understand it, but its very sad to see a horse die while racing, you do get attached after backing them a few times, following them or whatever it may be.

Cricket: EUR114.64 | Horse Racing: EUR19.39 Total P&L: EUR134.03

12/04/2009

Pretty sure the golf wont settle before 11 so might aswell update now and put it in with tomorrows. Had an OK-ish day, backed Munster hoping it would kick start a good day but played the horses poorly for the second day in a row. Not happy with my form going into a bumper 9 meeting day tomorrow to play in running and if it doesnt start off well I'll take the day off from there. Still a winning day overall, if not a big one, its better than losing. Screen shot for this week is below the Munster bet.

Horse Racing: -EUR51.55 | Rugby Union: EUR10.29 Total P&L: -EUR41.26

Kenny Perry To Beat Chad Campbell Bet

11/04/2009

Played well today and part of yesterday on a few sports. My first time trading Rugby League yesterday as there was no racing and it turned out OK. Cricket went well today in an IPL warm up game, happy to get my eye in playing small stakes and I cant wait for it to kick off properly. The soccer bet was backing United after it went 1-1, was pretty confident they would come back and then laid off when they did, the defending at times is terrible. Only thing I didnt do well today was the horses, I was absolutely shocking really and decided to call it a day after a few mistakes in a row, you get them days though. Enjoying the US Masters this weekend and a few markets settled late last night, hopefully Kenny Perry will have a good round tonight and beat Chad Campbell, Campbell is also the only player I'm red on at the top of the leader board at the moment.

Cricket: EUR17.21 | Golf: EUR25.51 | Horse Racing: -EUR96.77 | Rugby League: EUR28.23 | Soccer: EUR120.90 Total P&L: EUR95.08

09/04/2009

Nice day here with nothing out of the ordinary happening. Was out for the day and only backed one horse in Tipperary with the bookies, but laid off in running so a loss on the horses on Betfair but a win overall - which is the main thing. Annoying that I missed out on Whatuthink winning after staying he had a great chance to win at The Curragh on sunday but there was someone here and I totally forgot about it at the time. Backed the Saffers to beat Australia after seeing the prices after the first wicket fell when Australia were chasing a massive total. And stayed away from the darts on Betfair, backed Part to average under 92.5 with William Hill and I wasnt too sure watching the match wether I was winning or not, although I was only half watching it. I probably wont have another bet like that and it did take them nearly two hours to settle, it shouldnt take that long, it should be fairly simple. I suppose it stopped me having a bet on the other matches which was a good thing seeing the Taylor result.

Cricket: EUR34.65 | Horse Racing: -EUR16.06 Total P&L: EUR18.59

08/04/2009

Didnt have a bet yesterday as I was in college and same today and tomorrow, have exams coming up at the end of the month so have to get those out of the way and hopefully not have to repeat, its worth the effort now. Anyway, managed to get home in time for the last few races, glad the flat is back as it suits my style much more and ended up with a nice profit from just five races. Also gets me over the €3,000 mark in less than six weeks which I'm delighted about. Off to watch the football with no idea whos gonna win tonight between Liverpool and Chelsea, still gutted over Uniteds result last night, impossible to call results on football these days.

Horse Racing: EUR63.79 Total P&L: EUR63.79

06/04/2009

Nice half day here, won a small few quid off ATR. I think sometimes people let the time difference effect them massively, its not impossible to still win money in running, you just have to be aware that some people are ahead of you picture wise and remember its all part of the game these days. Relax and let things happen, dont push it too much because you cant when 4 seconds or so behind, expect not to get matched sometimes because it happens. Expect nothing with the time delay and you wont be disappointed, no point letting it get in the way because you cant change it.

Horse Racing: EUR28.61 Total P&L: EUR28.61

Anyway, its monday night and its €1 entrance before midnight and €2 a drink in XXI tonight, I will be there with bells on. I'm a little nervous about it though as its came to my attention lately that I have a stalker. Its a very serious matter and one I'm deeply concerned about, a man has been following me around for the past while and has been copying my dance moves. I'm not joking, hes even made a video..

05/04/2009

Been at the races the last two days and havent had a bet on Betfair, I'm delighted really because I've havent backed one winner! Been a good week for the challenge though and happy I'm still moving forward, be it with profits on Betfair or the bookies. Had two bets with Paddy Power today and the screen shot is below, along with the screen shot from Betfair for the week.

Curragh Sunday Preview

Very nice card today at The Curragh for so early in the season and some very interesting races. After the madness that is Aintree on Grand National day, I'm looking forward to being able to walk around The Curragh and relax a bit, added to the fact I didnt back one winner there all day yesterday! Anyway, wont be on Betfair today but a few thoughts before I leave..

Xtraxtra 2.15 The Curragh.
Got told this fella was a nice horse and he looked it the last day in the parade ring, also got told Smullen really likes him. He ran OK for his first time out and hopefully he can improve on that today, been handed a very hard draw though. Serious word about for Stand And Fight, been told hes working very well but if I backed every tip I got I'd be skint at this stage.

Whats Up Pussycat 2.45 The Curragh.
Wide open race this and I like the fact shes had a run, and finished very well and caught my eye. Vocalised is having his first run of the season, he was off his feed last week and thats why he never ran, missing out on him winning at 6/4 isnt going to kill you and I cant have him today. A very hard race and just taking a chance with Whats Up Pussycat at 6/1 or so.

3.15 The Curragh.
Anyone got a spare pin? Nigh on impossible.

Georgebernardshaw 3.45 The Curragh.
Mightnt back him but at 6/1 in a race like this you cant do much harm. A lot of AP's will need the run but this fella won first time out last season so it would be less of a worry. What can you say about Mad About You, she doesnt look the most willing horse I've ever seen anyway. Mr Weld was so confident the last day and I stood and watched grown men run across the betting ring to back her at 1/3, it was madness down there. Sure enough she had everything go her way and when asked she simply didnt deliver, shes one to be wary of. I'd give her another chance today before calling her names but cant back her today so Georgebernardshaw might just be the one in an open race again.

Poet 4.15 The Curragh.
Cant wait to see him run today and he'll give us a great guide as to how far forward some of the AP O'Brien horses are. He came home in front of some of the stable stars in a racecourse gallop here a couple of weeks ago. I suppose that shows hes fairly forward and ready to roll, and he has some nice form and at 5/2 that seems a fair price, very interesting race and cant wait to see what happens.

Aristocrat 4.45 The Curragh.
Even though its a big question mark how much he'll need the run, hes been working well at home and I'd be disappointed if he couldnt win or finish second at least. Anything around the 5/4 or 6/4 mark is a nice price and hes Johnnys best chance of a winner today.

Harchibald 5.15 The Curragh and Gwens Spirit 5.15 The Curragh.
No surprise to see these two at the head of the market. Gwens Spirit has already had a run this season and Harchibald should be fit from hurdling, so one can guess what Harchi does these days though, not even Noel Meade. A very close call between to two of them and I'll decide when I'm there, a difficult race to work out.

Ebadiyan 5.45 The Curragh and Whatuthink 5.45 The Curragh.
Pretty sure the winner will be one of these two. You couldnt be sure of Ebadiyan after running out at Cheltenham and maybe hes as mad as his trainer, well that might be going a bit far horses arent that crazy! I'm hoping Whatuthink will be ready to roll for this race and not view it just as a prep for Punchestown, I think if Johnny can bounce if out in front he might lead all the way. I have no idea what I'm backing at the minute and will see how the funds are going into the last, whatever I back will be a certainty anyway if I'm losing!

Overall, a really nice day and I'm looking forward to it. Havent done any bets online yet but I've backed Button to win the Malaysian GP and if I get paid by Paddy Power (race is currently stopped due to mad rain) I might have the winnings on Aristocrat for the challenge, I'd like to be there to see how things are before the race and if hes ready to roll, I'll know when I'm there so its hard to have a bet now but hes probably the best bet of the day along with Poet, remember hes a key horse to see how AP's are going after the racecourse gallops.

Aintree Saturday Preview

Wont be here tomorrow morning so thought I'd put up a few ideas for tomorrows meeting tonight, on first look at the card I was sort of disappointed, its not an amazing card. The big hurdle race stands out and it goes without saying everyone will be there for the Grand National.

Tatenen 2.15 Aintree 1pt win at 2/1 with Stan james.
I didnt fancy this fella at Cheltenham but he looks set to run a massive race tomorrow. I wouldnt be very confident about him though and I havent backed him once all year, but I think tomorrow he looks the one. 2/1 seems a fair price with the bookies looking at Betfair at the moment, hes currently trading at 2/1 there minus your commission. Kalahari King looks the main danger and being honest I havent noted him all season either until he finished 2nd at Cheltenham, I wouldnt be having a big bet at all on this race but I think Tatenen should be good enough here, hopefully he jumps well and comes back safe.

Fiveforthree 2.50 Aintree.
He was so impressive the last day, I've been talking about him all week. But now the race is getting closer I'm going off him for some reason, I still fancy him just not enough anymore to back him. Currently trading at 12 on Betfair hes on the drift massively, I hope he travelled over well and ate up etc. I dont really like the front three in the betting here and thats probably one of the main reasons I liked Fiveforthree when I first saw the entries during the week, but now were here I think Solwhit and Jered almost have the same chance of winning as him. Its a hard one and I'm glad I didnt have a bet antepost, might sit this one out tomorrow.

Would you all forgive if I picked three for the Grand National?

L'Ami 4.15 Aintree 0.5pt e/w at 25/1 with ladbrokes.
Irish Invader 4.15 Aintree 0.5pt e/w at 25/1 with Corals.
Brooklyn Brownie 4.15 Aintree 0.5pt e/w at 33/1 with Corals.
Hopefully one will win! What can you say though about the Grand National, you can spend hours studying form only for your horse to fall at the first or be bought down at the 2nd, its an amazing race. Looking at the front two in the betting, I think they deserve to be there, My Will is the class horse of the race and has been laid out for it, I've never really liked him though for some reason. If none of my team look like winning, I'll be shouting home McCoy on Butlers Cabin, it would be fitting for him to win it this week after what happened Exotic Dancer. It goes without saying that jumping is the most important factor tomorrow and I wouldnt have any worries with L'Ami jumping these fences coming from the stable he does. Irish Invader would be a small worry but touch wood he jumps well and his form is looking very good coming into this race. While Brooklyn Brownie has been around this course already this year, and he stays well too. Hopefully one of them will place anyway in what should and always is a great race.

03/04/2009

Fantastic day on the cricket with England taking the last ODI against the West Indies, traded the game and ended up with 200 all green after the flip flop. Thought it was a good total, but the whole lay of West Indies was based on getting Gayle out early and luckily enough he went for a duck. Played the horses well, hit the crossbar so many times today and it would have been a really good day had Scotsirish of placed, he ran a crakcer though so cant complain.

Cricket: EUR227.33 | Horse Racing: EUR68.13 Total P&L: EUR295.46

Aintree Friday Preview

Brilliant card again today in Liverpool, everything seems priced up well this morning and its not easy to guess what the Cheltenham winners will run like.

American Trilogy 2.00 Aintree.
Was so impressive at Cheltenham, still cant believe Ruby rode at 20/1 winner, that almost never happens! I actually think todays race looks harder than the one he won the last day, at 3/1 on Betfair at the moment I'll pass on backing him. He looks the most likely winner but I dont know much about the horses taking him on so its a no bet for me.

Herecomesthetruth 2.35 Aintree and Siegemaster 2.35 Aintree.
Their way out of line with the price of Herecomesthetruth, 9/4 seems at good price to me. He missed Cheltenham to come here and I like that idea, another thing too is that he didnt seem to like Cheltenham at all when he ran there, refusing at the last when upsides, he went back and put things right there but he jumped a little right the whole way around. It was the correct thing to do to miss the festival and come here instead, hes one of the best novices around and I think he'll take all the beating here.
I havent backed Herecomesthetruth yet, only one reason why, and thats Siegemaster. Massive fan of this fella and if he can get his jumping together 10/1 is a fantastic each way price. God hes a terrible jumper at times though, and he might not like the ground either, the trip will be fine but its just wether he has the pace to go with them jumping on this ground.

Scotsirish 3.10 Aintree 1pt e/w at 22/1 with William Hill.
Took 25/1 in the shops this morning, its not hard to see why people want to back him. He has everything right today, Ruby on board, the trip and the ground. He'll absolutely love this ground, go back to his race at Punchestown last year over 2m5f on good ground, came from the clouds only to win easily enough in the end by 4L, 22/1 is too big today. Take out the favourite Voy Por Ustedes and its a wide open race. He was staying on behind Master Minded at Cheltenham before meeting a bit of trouble when a horse fell in front of him, this is his trip and ground today. Hes been running over 2 miles on heavy ground all winter and still managed to win a race, he had Schindlers Hunt miles behind that day too. He has the right man on board, but I hope Ruby doesnt over do the waiting tactics and not leave it too late to challenge, if he gets into the position and going well enough to do so but I think he'll go close today. 5/1 to place on Betfair might be the way to go but I like the 22/1 with William Hill, nice to see hes being well backed too, always a good sign with the Mullins stable when theres moneys for one of his.

Karabak 4.20 Aintree and Weapons Amnesty 4.20 Aintree.
Karabak deserves to be favourite here, notice hes being backed too and 2/1 seems fair enough. The extra distance will help him here I think, but will the course suit him. He seemed to me to look a real battler at Cheltenham but with Aintree being such a flat track you have to wonder will speed come into it more here. I think hes the most likely winner but at 2/1 I'll sit and watch.
Weapons Amnesty is a fantastic horse, and I hope he wins this. Done me a real favour winning at Cheltenham, one thing to remember about him is he is a hard ride and does nothing in front, he has to perfect jockey to cope with that though. I'd be worried about the test of stamina today though, and he may just get out paced in the finish, I'm not sure. Will Pride Of Dulcote improve past them, cant answer that either. A race to watch for me.

Overall, a nice card but very hard to be 100% sure of backing a winner, Scotsirish might be my only bet. Not sure wether to back him to place on Betfair or each way at 22/1, I have a think about it. Should be a nice day for in running, one point for yesterday I noticed was horses arent making up a lot of ground from the back, might be something to keep in mind. Hopefully they all come back safely, yesterday was a terrible day with Denman falling when upsides and Exotic Dancer having a heart attack.
In the bumper got a little bit of a word for Liss Na Tintri 5.30 Aintree coming over from Ireland and it will be interesting to see how she goes, couldnt back her at 13/2 on form anyway!

02/04/2009

Poor enough day with calling things wrong before the off, but played brilliant in running after settling in only to go and throw it away on the darts, annoying! McCoy got me out of trouble in the last at Aintree after the Denman loss, still not sure who would have won had he not fell at the 2nd last. Very, very sad to hear about Exotic Dancer, RIP. Havent been betting on the darts well at all lately, cant seem to call it right this year, even in running I'm calling things wrong and this might be the last week as I've no confidence in what I'm doing at times in matches. For example, thought Taylors price was very short and wanted to lay, didnt because I thought he'd win in the end, but his price went out to evens in running and I could have won a fortune going green, little things like that messing with my head, looking back thinking what I could have done. I've no trust in any of the players this year to come out and do a certain average week in week out and its affecting my betting. Backed Big Bucks with the bookies and that bets below, lost the other two bets in the preview, overall lost 75.75 on the day. Very disappointed with actually getting back in front and then to go back to losing on the day.

Darts: -EUR100.07 | Horse Racing: EUR90.99 Total P&L: -EUR9.08

Aintree Thursday Preview

Big Bucks 2.00 Aintree 1pt win at 5/6 with VC bet.
My only worry about this fella today is will he handle the flat track, his last three wins have been at Cheltenham and hes looked in trouble at certain stages but then came back to win. If he hits a flat spot today he might not get away with it, but hopefully they'll go a good pace and he'll travel well. The main danger seems to be Mighty Man, having his coming back run the last day at Cheltenham might have well left its mark and he could bounce. But thats just a thought at the back of your head. I'd still fancy Big Bucks to be good enough to win here barring anything goes wrong.

Hebridean 2.35 Aintree 1pt win at 11/4 with William Hill.
What a cracking race this is. First thought was to be against Walkon when I seen the tissue last night and then I'd have Starluck and Hebridean running for me, but I dont like laying at the big meetings and I'm going to take a chance with Hebridean. Always liked him when he was down in AP's and was looking forward to him going hurdling for Paul Nicholls, today might be his chance as hes missed Cheltenham for this race, while his main market rivals were been aimed at Cheltenham and had hard races. Starluck didnt get up the hill, looked the winner too before finishing 4th in the end and Walkon had a hard race. It just might pay to be on Rubys mount today but I wouldnt be very confident in a race as good as this.

Denman 3.10 Aintree 2pts win at evens with VC bet.
Cant believe hes evens, looked at the race last night and thought I'm not backing him because I'm such a huge fan of Exotic Dancer, but at evens I cant not back Denman. If the real Denman shows up I think hes a better horse than Exotic Dancer. Everyone knows hes had problems and thats why hes the price he is, I'd have a small doubt that if Denman flys off in front he could set the race up for Exotic Dancer coming from behind but again if Denman is at his best I think he'll win. Will be a fantastic race to watch anyway.

Agus A Vic 3.45 Aintree 2pts win at 9/2 with William Hill.
Really like the look of this horse today and thought straight away it would be my main bet of the first day. Bit worried hes drifting though and I hope hes travelled over well, that said I've taken the 9/2 and hopefully he gets around safely, thats the main thing. The trip might be a bit on the short side but I was standing at the 2F marker the last day he won in Leopardstown and was impressed with the turn of foot there to go on and win easily. Hes a good jumper touch wood, and hopefully nothing like getting bought down happens today, I really think he is by far the best horse in the race.

Overall, cant help but think about last year at Aintree and how many odds on shots were turned over, it was a bloodbath. Cheltenham takes a lot out of horses and youve no idea until they run. Couldnt turn down some of the prices today, but I do like the idea of horses missing Cheltenham for Aintree, I wouldnt be lumping on Big Bucks or Denman today and I havent even backed them singly yet. I did have a cheeky €50 treble Big Bucks, Denman and Agus A Vic last night after taking to a mate about the days racing. I'll decide what to do nearer the off, but I think those four will all go very close to winning, I like Agus A Vic the most. Denman is a cracking price though.

01/04/2009

Was in the house for the afternoon and thought I'd play a few races, before I knew it was €90 down and doing nothing right. Thought I'd better give up but then said if I was going to bet go and do it properly! Got back in the groove soon enough and got all the losses back and then called it a day on the horses. Backed unders in the Italy v Ireland after Italy scored and laid off as the odds were coming down every few minutes, before eventually going all green for €50 or so.

Horse Racing: EUR6.85 | Soccer: EUR52.20 Total P&L: EUR59.05

Read a few different blogs this morning, some good and some bad. It seems most of the successful ones start with a big bank and have all the correct tools, gruss and bet angel, maybe even fast pictures. Its very hard for a normal person to make good money using Betfair, I see some people asking what the successful ones do etc but thats a waste of time when one person is betting with a €10,000 bank and the other is betting with a €200 bank.

If you were to read the madness of the Betfair forum, punters by nature always think they are right, this being one of the main problems. The amount of rows over not agreeing with each others bets and what is "value" is amazing, I think everyone forgets if we all agreed it would be like Boylesports, no one would get a bet on!

The average punter seems to want to win big as soon as possible. Fact is, thats impossible.

Someone said to me the other day "Oh youre up to €2,000 on the blog you can start betting big now." Er no, why run before you can walk? It all adds up very, very quickly and its important to play within yourself, you bet to your means. Losing €250 a day doesnt bother me, therefore I'm less likely to go on tilt when I lose that amount. If you bet in tenners and lose €50 youre almost definitely going to be chasing, so why bet in €50's just because youve won.

But most punters are certain they are right and you cannot teach a person who already bets to bet in the correct way. Its too easy to make excuses, but there are no excuses, you either have it or you dont. Its as simple as that.