Willie Mullins Stable

Champion Irish trainer, more class horses than I can name and an honest bloke too. A trainer I've a lot of time for and for anyone who follows horse racing his website is top class if youve never visited it, always writes an honest view of his horses chances.

He wrote this about his bumper winner today - "Red Hot Poker (Patrick) goes for the bumper. He pulled hard on his debut at Gowran but it may be easier to get him to settle around this track. He could be hard to beat." Paddy power went 9/2 early doors and he returned at 11/4. Even better was this - "Red Vinto (David Casey) makes his jumping debut in the 2m 4f beginners chase. The ground seems to be drying out nicely for him and he is fit and well. We are expecting a very good run." He went and won at 8/1!

Worth checking every time before backing a Mullins horse. Tells you more for free rather than paying for a tipping line etc anyway.

http://www.wpmullins.com

As well as that one, Irish-racings horse tracker is excellent. On bank holiday weekends like this one when theres so many meetings going on, its very easy to let a horse get through the net and naturally thats the time it wins. You can pick any amount of horses and they'll email you when their entered, declared and after with the result, handy!

http://www.irishracing.com

31/05/2009

Who would have thought we'd see the day Nadal get beaten at the French open before the final! Would have been a great day if it wasnt for that, but theres not much I can do about him losing, first time hes lost there. If you gave me 1/2 about him winning the French open I'd do it most times. The new rules helped a lot, I did actually have €400 on him last weekend, but laid €170 back the day of the new rules so a loss of €230 but it could of been worse.

The GAA went well again and had a small quick trade on the cricket, should have let the bet run but wasnt watching it, regretted laying it back as soon as I did. Apart from that nothing major today and off to a BBQ instead of the Spanish soccer, Osasuna odds on to beat Real Madrid, worlds gone mad! Going racing tomorrow too so wont be around.

Cricket: EUR34.03 | Gaelic Games: EUR41.75 | Tennis: -EUR230.00 Total P&L: -EUR154.22

Its been a poor week on Betfair overall. But still above €13,000 thanks to Betdaq and the bookies, not really unhappy with the week as its made me change a few things and they'll definitely help in the long run. As I said, dont mind losing if I learn something and I learned a good bit this week. June will be very different, focusing on discipline and money management, dont lose and the winnings add up quickly!

30/05/2009

With the weather amazing, its near impossible to sit looking at a computer screen all day, most of the day was spent on the golf course (won 4 & 3, whos the daddy!). Its meant to be this good for the next six weeks too but I cant go swanning around sunbathing and golfing each day, unreal sun burn too. Anyway, played the last three races when I got home and ended up with a nice enough profit.

Horse Racing: EUR21.50 Total P&L: EUR21.50

Bit disappointed Betfair didnt have the GAA match in running tonight, noticed it around an hour before throw in and emailed them, they replied with two minutes left in the game saying to ring them when events like this happen, sound lads. But no worries over at Betdaq and a fantastic result for the first game I've traded on this season. Wont use Betdaq too often so will put up a screen shot every day instead of the P&L, they do everything different anyway. Might be an idea to do all my GAA matches over there, but theres two games on tomorrow and I'll see what the story is on Betfair for them. This evening was good on Betdaq anyway no issue getting matched, was quite impressed actually.

29/05/2009

Wont say too much as theres someone here, but finally a winning day this week! Only thing that went wrong was the cricket, it was a 1.01 train from the 4th over in the first innings - I was laying at under 1.25 but it never worked out, happy with the new rule of not going over €200 and probably didnt lose as much as I would have normally done. The chase went all the way to the last over so happy enough with the bet, no complaints.

The horses went well and a great start to the daily horse to follow over on the side of the blog, only thing was I forgot to back it for the challenge, five minutes after the race "ah the horse!" look and hes won, what can you do. I like the idea of picking a horse every day and I'll do it from now on most likely without backing it - unless I really fancy it.

Losing day on Betfair but a good winning day with the bookies, backing a draw in the Ireland match, we always draw! And a boxing bet from my mate Dec, I trust him but jesus I was nervous about this one from round two, but what he told was exactly what happened really. I'm still amazed the small fella didnt get knocked out though. But delighted to be moving the total up instead of down!

Cricket: -EUR167.57 | Horse Racing: EUR32.84 Total P&L: -EUR134.73

28/05/2009

Still gutted from the result last night, United were pants, feeling a bit clever I went with a few correct score bets, didnt have 2-0 to Barca in mind though, 1-0 and 2-1 for Barca were their outcomes. Who would have thought Fergie would go with 4-4-2. Barca played well but United played into their hands being so open, what else could they do going behind so early though, but play an open game against Barca and its kaput. I'm glad the football season is over as regards to betting, lucky to break even over each month these days.

On to the horses, I'm not sure what other people think etc but for me the market has changed massively this year. Massively. I have in my records last summer (five months), while I was off college and doing in running every day, I made just over €5,500 in the place market off ATR and RUK - I've zero chance of even coming close to that this summer. I cant remember the last time I had an over €100 winning day from in running only. Theres less and less money on the screen each day nearly and its becoming so hard to get matched. I'm not complaining. Maybe I've changed, my edge has gone and these things happen but it just totally feels like a different market. I'll keep going and give it next week and see but its just not there for me at the minute, lose next week and I'd be nearly thinking of giving it up.

Noticed in the win market theres someone laying at 2.04 and backing at 1.3, their MILES ahead of what happens on my screen. Their not very clever either, they keep getting stung in Ireland and he (or she!) reads the angle terribly at Lingfield, its not someone whos being doing it for long and in my mind their betting off the live feed without question. Watch the market on SIS (ATR) tracks only, 1.3 and 2.04, you'll notice it quickly. I think its 5K laying and 15K backing. I dont mind these things, I'm behind and have to accept it, once youre aware of it thats half the battle. Not surprised theres less people betting in running though I suppose, there certainly was more €2 and €3s hanging around than before. Maybe its the credit crunch, premium charge or whatever, thats life, I havent taken their money anyway so if they could please come back they would be most welcome, I'll play nice!

Anyway to round off two losing days, the cricket was a mini disaster this evening. Fancied Essex from the start but five run outs from them (fat fookers!), went all red at half time, actually a bit happy because was genuinely thinking over going €600 red on Essex to get green on Sussex, thought it was an easy target to chase, nice test of discipline passed there I reckon. Some games I just cant pick a good trade at all, always get sporting events like that and its definitely not the last time it'll happen, I tend not to worry because I'm confident on cricket. I dont like even 20/20 games though I have to say, when teams are swinging from 1.8 every so often, I dont like those prices to get involved in, such a fine line between it going for or against you. Thats what basically happened tonight, backed essex at 1.9 and it all went kaput, hadnt got the bottle to ride it out fully but I was never planning to anyway, you just know the games going down to 15 off 10 balls and thats no good, thats leaving yourself open to anything happening. Thats one thing I learned from the IPL, its not all about looking at the hot cheerleaders, and 4 off 6 balls is not a certainty!

Cricket: -EUR238.71 | Horse Racing: -EUR27.13 | Soccer: -EUR180.01 Total P&L: -EUR445.85

Cricket is my biggest winner and I'm kind of gutted the horses and football have gotten in the way today, always fearful of making things worse, you do start to think no matter what you do it goes pear shaped, confidence is key. The last three months on Betfair, cricket is head and shoulders above everything else with horses second and rugby third. I should stop betting on golf too which is the only over -€500 sport, have the GAA back too now which is nice and looking forward to that. I dont mind losing a few quid once I learn something and I think I've learned more this month than I have in the last year, happy to see the back of it and June will be very different. Wrote out a few rules and things to do, and more importantly things to stay away from and not to do.

Few examples: no betting while the first innings is on unless laying at under 1.5, no betting with the bookies on cricket, no betting pre-race on English horse racing, €200 is the maximum liability on any market, no guessing on an evens market with only two outcomes, no golf betting before the last day, on test cricket no betting before the last day, no forcing things on the horses in running, think more about every bet, dont let the Betfair balance build up too much - but avoid taking too much out that youre thinking of it, less football bets, when all red accept it stop digging (most important!) the amount of times I've lost an extra €50 trying to get out laying at 1.2 etc. Theres a few more but those are the ones at the front of my head, I was going to do a little thing on the side if I can, tip a horse from Ireland every day, 2pts win or 1pt e/w every day theres an Irish meeting, wont back them necessarily every day but it'll make me look through the card. Which I like doing anyway, I'll see if theres a handy way of doing it, if not I'll leave it.

It hurts to get over €13,000 and then fall back under. Although I think I have the raw talent to complete the challenge, its just directing it in the right way and keep ticking over, moving forward, I fully understand I wont win everyday, and there'll be times I lose my head - but just keep losing to a minimum, the most important lesson I've learned this month is money management and this sounds weird but - its not about winning, its about not losing. You dont lose, you protect yourself and you can only move forward. Ask myself before every bet, "am I guessing," was I guessing on the football last night, yeah. Did I lose, yeah. I'm the normal punter and obviously every bet I do is gambling on things going my way, I dont have fast pictures, software, a system or anything like that. its just me, Betfair, the tv and the computer. And I love it!

26/05/2009

Its a long way to Tipperary. Anyway, the cricket didnt go well this morning, I thought England batting first would help the West Indies to be honest, they were really poor though, they had nothing to blame today but themselves. I was all red when England were about 1.33, I had to go racing then too so there was no way back, but it turned out to be a 1.01 train so I probably would have made things worse anyway. Its a little annoying because I trusted the West Indies to perform, but what can you do, they didnt.

Champions League final tomorrow so wont be around until Thursday, as it comes closer I'm starting to think if backing United is such a good idea, I dont know, I'm about 50/50 now wether to back them or not. If Berba starts I definitely will NOT be backing them! I'll be gutted if they lose without losing money on it too, but I do think they'll win. I'll wait to see the teams. Get the feeling if I'm not 100% about something I shouldnt be betting on it.

Cricket: -EUR264.95 | Horse Racing: EUR8.18 Total P&L: -EUR256.77

Had another winning day with the bookies, really happy to win both bets because it improves the days overall P&L. But I have been thinking more and more about it, it really does affect my betting on Betfair, I'm giving up cricket bets with the bookies after today, the only bets I'll have with them will be early morning prices on the Irish racing. I'm pretty sure the second bet with William Hill was a chase bet because I was all red on Betfair, its not normally the type of bet I would do. Last night I went to bed thinking about how important discipline is, it really makes or breaks you, felt I lost it a bit last night on the darts and its crept in a bit today.

I have to say I've felt in a bit of a comfort zone since getting over the €10,000 mark and with the flat season back a few big important wins on course and the likes, its easy to sit back and relax, its already happened sure, but it doesnt take long giving it back when youre not minding what youre doing. I've done silly things now the last three days. I want to go back to caring more, thinking every bet is important and seriously keep things tight. Really going to focus on discipline from now on, no more messing about just because I've won a few quid. Its almost as if I dont care when I lose €200, its hard to explain, thinking whats €200 in the big picture of things but its bloody important, I have to care more about money. I've never had a job so its very difficult for me to put a value on it. Today I was playing stick cricket while trading on England v West Indies - while having a €500 liability, its not good enough is it.

I've been here before and had this feeling, its why I started the challenge, I really enjoyed when the bank was just at €100 and it was edgey every day struggling to make €20, I like a challenge because it gives me something to think about about. I ask questions of myself and see if I have the answers. The point is, I thought way much more about my bets when the bank was small than I do now, because every bet was important, every bet mattered because if you lost on one market that might be half the bank gone. Now its just not as edgey. Maybe its the addicted gambler side coming out in me! But I've thought long and hard, I'm really going to focus on discipline and not allow myself to relax, its 100% effort every day on Betfair. If I can work at this, it really would improve everything. No more messing about. Yeah I've won money but I can improve, there is always a way to improve. No one is perfect.

25/05/2009

Seriously, seriously, seriously annoyed. Made a right mess of all three darts matches tonight, doing stupid things too, no complaints with players or luck or anything, just me being useless. The most annoying thing is it was a good day up until the darts started.

Nothing annoys me more than being on a player or team, switching half way through, and then the first one you fancied wins. I cant explain how annoying that is. That happened in the first game, Wade v Barney - fancied Wade but Barney kept sticking in there and just laid wade at higher odds than I backed to have zero on Barney, he looked like winning too but for Wade to come back. Then second game, got on Taylor at around 1.8 or so and then laid King at 1.3, I honestly thought King was going to bottle it, or at least Taylor to go through a few gears but he wasnt good enough and fair played to King. In the final after King beating Wade twice in the earlier weeks, with him being over 2/1 to beat Wade again, I had to back King, it was over pretty quickly though with Wade going 5-0 up. As I said, no complaints with how each of them played or bad luck, it was my fault and my fault only.

The only small thing to come out of it is it does focus your mind not to be an eejet again. Its hard to stop and think in running, in a fast moving game with the odds flying about this way and that. Its easy to not think what youre doing. Sometimes its best to leave bets run until the end, thats against my nature though because naturally I look to play in running nearly all the time. I think its important to decide what to do before having the bet, wether to go in running to lay off or reduce loss, or just leave it run. I didnt have a 100% plan what to do in my head tonight and I paid for it. It'll be a long time before it happens again though.

On a better note, the cricket went well, first day of the English 20/20 season and I was delighted with how it went, managed to be €140 all green during the first innings. Looking forward to the England game tomorrow, reckon who gets to bat first will have a big effect on who wins, or at least West Indies might even look like coming close to winning a game.

Cricket: EUR134.35 | Darts: -EUR341.12 | Horse Racing: -EUR9.60 | Tennis: EUR5.29 Total P&L: -EUR211.08

I know I've had worse losing days on the challenge, but it really is all about how you lose and today was poor, very poor. Its easy to make excuses and blame stuff but theres a way of doing things and just feel I let myself down tonight, just stupidity - I hate stupidity. But anyway no need to be depressed about it, its not the end of the world and it'll be forgotten about in an hour or so, and onwards to tomorrow with no darts.

24/05/2009

Cracking day at The Curragh, even though I didnt have many winners, the weather was lovely and just in the door from a round of golf afterwards, I'm nackered. Anyway, the Paddy Power bet this morning didnt go well at all but I backed Button to win the Monaco GP so it was a winning day luckily enough.

Motor Sport: EUR214.42 Total P&L: EUR214.42

Been a fantastic week on Betfair and I'm delighted to have over €1,000 profit this week, hopefully next week will go as well as this one touch wood. Just tick over each day and its amazing how it all adds up, I've backed Nadal win the French open and will back United to win the Champions League. Just seen Deccan won the IPL, well done to them, it'll feel weird tomorrow with no game on though. Just been looking at skysports.com, they have cricket nearly every day for the summer, fantastic! Its by far my favourite sport to bet on.

I'm A Dreamer

I know accumulators are mug bets, but I couldnt help myself this morning, I was messing around putting in horses from every race and it came up it pays €95,000 if they all win so I've gone and done it. Fantastic days racing at The Curragh today and the weather is absolutely amazing out here at the moment, COME RACING!

23/05/2009

First off, I'd like to apologise to everyone. I said Mastercraftsman would win by 5L and he only won by 4½L, only kidding. Managed to get 5/2 a couple of days ago after he did a good piece of work, he was fantastic today and it was a good day out on The Curragh, hopefully tomorrow will be as good. Rip Van Winkle is burning up the Ballydoyle gallops at the moment but I dont agree with the price, he has always worked well but hes not really won anything has he, and Johnny hasnt decided who to ride yet, sure we'll see, I'm bias because I'm on Fame And Glory.

Made a pretty big mistake when I came home getting involved in the cricket, there was only about half an hour or so left, I should have just watched it. But after such a good day I was still buzzing and I was tempted in, lost a fair amount, really annoying at the time and had to take a little break after it. Made sure there was nothing left to bet on when I came back so I wouldnt chase, I can normally sense when I'm going to start so its best to walk away, its taken a while to get to that stage and a lot of learning. And you dont learn much from winning.

Just watching the end of the Barca game here, their losing 1-0 to the team 3rd from bottom, basically cant go backing the likes of United and Chelsea tomorrow even though their such good prices. Fair enough they'll probably win but its not worth the risk away from home when the games dont mean much, people will say the United second team will beat Hull but I wouldnt really believe that, it takes a lot to win a premiership game - just ask Newcastle!

Cricket: -EUR183.22 Total P&L: -EUR183.22

22/05/2009

Adam Gilchrist is absolutely amazing, a Rafa Benitez style FACT! 85 off 35 balls with a strike rate of 242.85, dont think I'll ever see an innings like that again and it was a pleasure to watch. Anyway, the game went as planned for me really, with only the first innings total posted being the only thing that went wrong. I've a screen shot below to explain this a bit better, but basically the Delhi openers have been poor since the start of the IPL and it was always the idea to back them after they were out, making sure the 3rd and 4th batsmen were settled, I had average odds of 2.19 for €600 going with the market. It looks like a big bet but I was never going to lose €600 in the market, always have a plan of going all red when things go wrong.

The idea was they would post 170+ and I'd then lay Delhi at odds on and put all my green on Deccan, betting on Gilchrist starting quickly as he always does, getting a flip flop and then going all green, it didnt exactly work out like that though. Had to change quickly after Delhi's innings finished laying €600 at 2.36, then backing Deccan a bit to make my book: -€300 Delhi and €144 Deccan, when getting involved during the first innings and it doesnt go well its best to go all red at the break I think anyway, then give yourself time to think which team is in the best position from that point. The total was miles short today though, but I didnt think Gilly would take the game away like he did, I was just hoping for a chance to green up at the break.

Fancied a few horses in Wexford tonight to place and that went well, think Skorcher will win the last but the price has gone now and the ground is getting worse. I'll be at The Curragh for the Guineas tomorrow and sunday so wont be near a computer for most of the weekend. Mastercraftsman is a certainty though isnt he, 5L on the bridle with Johnny shouting whos the daddy at Jamie when hes going by, I can see it now! (Cue Delegator winning now, I know, I know.) Looking at the rest of the card tomorrow, I like Beach Bunny, Utmost Respect and Air Chief Marshal whos pretty impressive at home. And who will Johnny ride in the Derby - bit of question now its not as clear as the betting suggests. I'm happily on Fame And Glory regardless.

Cricket: EUR105.44 | Horse Racing: EUR37.10 Total P&L: EUR142.54

Yankee Doodle

21/05/2009

A pretty simple day and no need to say much. Laid 1.3 for a completed match between England and the West Indies looking at it raining this morning. And backed Delhi to win after Mumbai posted a par score on a good pitch. Didnt get involved in the second game as it looked pretty even all the way and I had my William Hill bet running which thankfully came in with a few overs to spare while Deccan were in full collapse mode again, they really are the collapse kings of the IPL, you cant trust them at all once the openers go. The bet just sneeked over the line after Bangalore put 20 on, Deccan only added 15 chasing so it was close enough in the end, not the certainty it looked away. But I will be looking to do it again in the semi final thats here if its the same price, depending on the teams of course, I dont know which game is at Centurion but one of the semi's is there. Just something to keep in mind, the par score there is 170, very different from the other pitches.

Cricket: EUR344.20 Total P&L: EUR344.20

William Hill A Bit Off The Mark?

Bangalore v Deccan at Centurion, about to kick off around half three or so. Centurion is probably the easiest pitch to score runs on of any of the grounds in the IPL and we should get a high scoring game if the past games are anything to go by. William Hill go 5/6 both under and over 32.5 in the total match boundaries market, its a standard price and line set for the games really, but this ground is more easy to score off than normal. We've just had a match there a few minutes ago and there was over 35 fours in the game and the first team only posted 165ish in the first innings, the boundaries are very small, the outfield is quick and the pitch is flat, its a lovely sunny day by the looks of it over there too although most of this game will be under lights.

Basically, I think 5/6 for OVER 32.5 is massive value at this ground. Look at Betfair, the total fours market is around evens for between 24 and 34, with bigger than evens being offered for under 25 fours. There isnt much money in the total sixes market, but under 9 has been traded around 1.6 but I'm sure that will go higher, and between 10 and 13 is currently evens and will probably settle around 3. With William Hill youre getting fours and sixes in the one bet, it goes without saying obviously its up to the players and bowlers but both teams arent the most fantastic at bowling over the whole competition but their battling looks brilliant on paper. Kallis, Taylor, Dravid, Boucher, Van Der Merwe, Gilchrist, Gibbs, Sharma, Symonds and Suman - thats a nice list to have on your side and hopefully the bowlers dont have an amazing game. I really think this is a good proper bet win or lose.

20/05/2009

Warwickshire v Kent, I dont think I've ever been so gutted in my whole life! How it managed to finish a tie I'll never know, I totally blame the batting side, they knew what they had to get to be ahead on the D/L. Fancied Warwickshire for most of the match and was happily €200ish all green after backing them above evens and laying at 1.4 or so, then a few wickets fall and the Kent odds come down to 1.1 with a long way to go and just being a bit cheeky I laid it for €2,000. It starts to rain a bit but not enough to go off and the market is now in a panic flip flopping nearly every over for D/L, so I'm €1,200 all green at this stage thinking brilliant!

How it finished a tie, honestly. They needed four to be ahead and they get two, I think off seven or eight balls I cant remember while it was raining! What makes it even worse is I then lay the tie at all odds lower than 1.3 when the covers where on but it was looking to be getting a bit brighter and the cut off time was half an hour away, it stops raining for ten minutes, the covers come off and then they call off the game, I lose €140 and the sun comes out and it looks a lovely evening. Gutted.

Anyway on to the IPL, and seriously no chase is easy for any team, but you would expect to chase down 100 on any pitch even under lights with no worries, Kolkata dont ever do the "no worries" way of doing things though and I was happily all red quickly for €150 in that game, backed them at 1.3 during Rajasthans innings but never laid off at 1.11 at the break, bit silly but I thought they were certain to get the runs, my bottle went after four wickets went down for so little runs. They ended up winning but I dont like those type of games to leave bets running.

The second game was the exact same really, a team at low odds chasing a low total. And after been burned on the first game I learned my lesson, laid Punjab at 1.25 and that rescued the day for me. So a small loss on the day but it was looking so much worse until around ten minutes ago. Nice to have an evening off with no sport to relax, go to the cinema, hold hands and get something to eat. Really looking forward to the 1st ODI between England and the West Indies tomorrow, and with the thoughts that the Champions League final in Rome is only a week away.

Cricket: -EUR39.36 Total P&L: -EUR39.36

19/05/2009

Frustrating day with the horses, finding it really hard to get matched in running. And when I did I lost, picked around four or five losers in a row coming from the back and it would have been a lot worse if it wasnt for two winners in Punchestown late on. The getting matched and the amount of money in the market is a bit worrying when theres no cricket and all I have during the day is the horses, I cant do anything about that though so will just accept it for what it is, I know I'm behind with the pictures, sometimes things happen on Betfair before they happen on the tv.

The cricket today was frustrating enough too, winning €130 on the game in England and then losing it all and more on the IPL game, Ross Taylor completely took it away from me with his innings. Cant complain overall though I suppose, I just dont like giving money back straight away. And it was a bit of a silly trade too with wickets in hand chasing a low total, but the way the IPL has been going lately you think nearly every game something mad will happen, today for the first time in a while it was a pretty stress free run chase.

Cricket: -EUR16.51 | Horse Racing: -EUR70.36 Total P&L: -EUR86.87

The boxing tonight was absolutely fantastic! Got a massive profit getting a double up, with two winning singles on top. Had to venture to Ladbrokes for the double as they were best price, all credit goes to my mate Dec who rang me to back them, an excellent touch.

18/05/2009

WHOS THE DADDY!! Just finished bouncing around the room, wow the cricket was close, some people will never understand because they dont give the sport a chance but it really is amazing at times, its annoying when people say its boring when it clearly isnt. Been a really long time since I was that nervous watching the last few overs and its been an even longer time since I won over €1,000 on Betfair in one day. I didnt win €1,000 overall as I had bookie bets on the draw in the test, the screen shots are there in a few posts below, but wow that felt good. It means a lot more too because its been going so poorly lately, to win €500 on an IPL game is fantastic! (And I had €2 green on the other team!)

Anyway calming down, it was the weather v England this morning, I think everyone knew it before play started. Probably a mistake not going all green on the 3rd day but I thought the West Indies would do better to be honest, I know the ball was swinging but they basically didnt really look too good the last few sessions. Won €524.15 off Betfair from the test, lost €500 to the bookies, the Betfair bet was just laying off as I wrote the other day, thank god I did. Also, coming into the market second innings in limited over cricket really paid off today, you cant do that in tests and I'm still struggling with the time scales of each day - how many overs bowled etc.

Played a good few races today but only getting matched for €2 and €3 at times. Its hard and when the IPL is over I'll be doing the horses each day, hopefully I'll be a bit quicker and the race reading skills will come back a bit. I think you nearly have to be doing it every day to be in good touch, although I'm not good enough for pre-race betting on English racing each day. Lastly, I was thinking in the gym morning, I'm going to stay away from the bookies and focus on Betfair for a couple of days. We'll see what happens in regard to prices etc but I want my Betfair weekly P&L to improve from the last two weeks.

Cricket: EUR1,000.56 | Horse Racing: EUR25.12 Total P&L: EUR1,025.68

17/05/2009

Poor enough day here again on the cricket, just cant buy a bit of good judgement lately, every time I enter the market its going the wrong way I want it to. It happens though and its just me a touch out of form. The confidence goes and its hard to pick trades at the moment. Anyway today, Deccan needed 5 off the last 4 balls and didnt win, I would have won over €450 if they did but thats the game, I was never trading out there either at that point. The second game, about one minute after coming into the market wickets started falling and it went totally against me, laid at 1.7 and it was 1.2 in no time. Really hope its a draw in the test match, I'll be doing a rain dance I think because I dont have much faith in the West Indies batting out, delighted I laid my stake back would be more than a tad nervous now!

Cricket: -EUR236.69 | Special Bets: EUR95.30 Total P&L: -EUR141.39

Been a tough week on Betfair again, and thank god things are going well with the bookies the times I do bets with them, normally though the more I fancy something the more likely I am to back it with the bookies so that might explain it a bit, but I still want to improve the Betfair weekly P&L, the days I'm unsure of things are the days I stay away from the bookies. I suppose at least theres no sign of paying premium charge here! I was looking into using Betdaq for bets I dont want to play in running but we'll see how that goes, will have a look around it tonight. I'm also really, really happy to be over the €11,000 mark at the moment after two very difficult weeks.

16/05/2009

Norway on the bridle! Still waiting for Betfair to settle the place markets and god knows how long that will take, I'll put in the result with tomorrows P&L, I'm being ordered to watch the notebook with a blanket on the couch under penalty of death! Anyway, kept things simple today and didnt go too mad at all on Betfair as planned, spent the morning wandering around Dublin city center backing Norway in each shop so had a fantastic result there, backed it with two bookies for the challenge too.

Cricket: EUR31.82 | Horse Racing: EUR8.06 Total P&L: EUR39.88

England v West Indies - 2nd Test

Was very confident of a draw here. With the weather and the pitch I put €500 on it, €300 with William Hill at 5/4 and €200 with bet365 at 11/8. I still think its going to be a draw but I'm starting to think I cant trust the West Indies to bat for more than two full days if they need too. Theyve no real reason to just play for the draw either, so I've had to lay it on Betfair at 1.46, although just for my stake back plus a little bit at the moment. If it starts raining again I'll probably feel a bit silly but if its a draw I win just under €400, which is a really nice position to be for no loss. By the way, shouting for the draw in a five day test match is no craic at all, although I'd love to see Gayle whack a 100 and then finish a draw!

Rockhampton

15/05/2009

I dont think a cricket team has ever annoyed me as much as Delhi did today, my god, to the point of shouting at the tv, which very rarely happens me but they just did so many things wrong. No balls, wides, mis-fields, dropped catches, poor bowling. I lost count how many mis-fields went for four when it should have should been one. Even when they were batting the last four overs were terrible, yes I'm book talking but I expect a certain level of performance from a team, THREE no balls in ONE over is unacceptable. Hes lucky the free hits didnt go for six. In my mind they should have easily won the game. I had to withdraw all the money in my William Hill account so I wouldnt back over the runs line half way through their innings.

Reading the forum on Betfair and talking to friends, the general feeling is nearly everyone lost. A good mate lost over €3,000. It was a hard game I suppose, I laid Delhi while they were batting when AB came in and was stuck with it for the whole match after that, went all red with a few overs to go, I still feel let down by the effort from them. Anyway, what can you do. The horses picked up a bit today but in running still seems a bit harder than it was, less money in the market to my eye although people will argue that point. Might take a day off tomorrow, we'll see.

Cricket: -EUR272.72 | Horse Racing: EUR69.84 | Special Bets: EUR47.65 Total P&L: -EUR155.23

Just took out a few quid and left €350 in the Betfair account, I'm going to try win €20 for the next few days or not lose, I'm not enjoying the big swings each day, maybe I'm trying to be too clever. Still pissed off over that cricket. I've worked out what I'm doing wrong though I think, getting involved while the first innings is on, need to wait until thats over then go into market. I love laying 1.2 and 1.3 shots but you cant do it when youre all red or in a poor position, you cant chase the market either. Poor day, theres been days I've thousands and felt better. Three no balls in one over what a joker.

14/05/2009

WOW! What a day in the IPL, two amazing matches, best day so far I reckon for close finishes. Sadly, I was on the wrong end of both of them but didnt lose too much thankfully in the end, put all my green on Mumbai needing four of the last over and they lose three wickets and are all out! Then in the first game, basically all my fault, thought Bangalore would win but after a few wickets fell didnt have the bottle to stay in the market and went all red, then they eventually won in the end.

Really gutted I didnt back Black Bear Island in the dante, having known how good he was working, how good he actually is, I even wrote on the blog he was the most eye catching in The Curragh workouts a few weeks ago. Told my all friends Johnny had picked the wrong one and I dont even back it myself at 16/1! Had to watch him win. Really, really fantastic for my Derby bet though on Fame And Glory because hes much better than the two Ballydoyle horses that ran today, and I wouldnt be very sure Black Bear Island would get the trip fully, hes all about speed I think. Colm rode a canny race today though, hopefully he keeps the ride for the big one if he goes.

Anyway, not around tonight off out, but laid Ireland to qualify in the Eurovision, yes I know, I know the Eurovision, no one likes us though. I'll put it in with tomorrows P&L.

Cricket: -EUR100.95 | Soccer: EUR11.45 Total P&L: -EUR89.50

Bangalore v Chennai

Be really surprised if Bangalore cant chase down 130 to win here, stranger things have happened though I suppose, 1.3 looks big enough. Anyway, had two bets while the first innings was on, wont be backing anything else this game bar I back Bangalore.

13/05/2009

Fantastic day. Kept things simple and it paid off, but then again everything I backed to win today won so maybe the poor run of form has turned after yesterday, hopefully anyway. Reduced stakes a good bit and will leave it at the same levels for a few days, delighted with the horse results - those two screen shots are in the posts below.

The cricket went well but had to leave for two hours during the game and at the time I just went €25 all green and left it, happy I was in the position to do it, seeing the game after though I think I would have either won very big or lost big, happy I wasnt involved really. Had a good day on the run lines on bet365 too.

Fantastic win for Man United! BAM! Happy with everything today and a profit of just over €525, its good to be back in the groove!

Cricket: EUR24.44 Total P&L: EUR24.44

Dance Pass

Johann Zoffany

12/05/2009

Step one of betting like a knobjockey - bet on the Eurovision. Seriously sometimes I'm an awful eejet, I actually listened to the songs and all, did a bit of research and still lost, what was I doing! Last year I won over €500 on it and I think thats what lured me in tonight, really annoyed to lose money on it though. Had planned on laying Ireland on thursday to get through but not sure if I'll do it now, and think Norway will win the whole thing on saturday. Tonight has put me off it a little though.

Anyway, apart from that it was a really, really good day and got my touch back on the cricket. Its amazing how gambling goes, I was looking at an all red screen of €150 thinking not again, lay 1.27 in hope more than anything and all of a sudden I've just won €350 and feel fantastic again. It didnt last long however as I lost €100 on the next game, it was a 1.01 train though and I'll move on, delighted to have a winning day on it though. And had a little bet on the cricket runs in the game in England this evening, the screen shot below, was only a small interest bet because the game was over as regards the run chase but got back my losses from bet365 this morning which was nice. The horses went well this evening in Ireland too.

Cricket: EUR235.13 | Horse Racing: EUR68.64 | Special Bets: -EUR265.00 Total P&L: EUR38.77

Not happy with the Eurovision bet but I did give it a fair bit of thought so it wasnt too bad. Its just like when it loses you think why did I bet on the Eurovision! Still delighted its a winning day, if a small one, feels like a long while since I've won to be honest. Nice to be moving the P&L up instead of down and tomorrows another day.

Just looked now and the last time I had a winning day on Betfair was the 3th of May, its now the 12th - thats a bloody long time! Think I might have a little dance in the middle of the room now after winning. Yeah I'm fantastic!

Posted up I was finished with the opening batsmen cricket bets this morning, did it in a bit of a hurry so people knew I'd stopped before an innings started and never explained it. Basically, its getting in the way of trading the game on Betfair. And also theres certain games I really dont want to do the bet in like today, I did it anyway and lost the €25, which has happened the last three games, and I wasnt happy with it after that. I cant do both bets and I'm picking Betfair over it. Its not the fact I dont think it works fully, its the fact every game doesnt work, picking games is very different but every game isnt profitable.

Finished With The Cricket Run Lines Strategy

It doesnt work and to be honest its getting in the way. Blindly doing it on every game is not profitable, there is a time and a place for doing it but every game is a no.

11/05/2009

First off, the golf was going really fantastic last night.. until the second tee, then it all went pair shaped. After having €300 on Tiger, I suppose I cant complain about losing €251, just a wrong call. Its been going like that lately.

Golf: -EUR251.00

Anyway on to today, got behind really early after losing on the first horse race I played, pretty annoying because nothings been going right last few days on Betfair and its no good at all when the first thing of the day you do is poor. After laying a horse in running and it basically flew home from near last its no good for confidence at all, you start to think youre jinxed too, its amazing the things that go through your head. Battled well to get back to level and then went onto the cricket, played the game in England well and the IPL game not so well, I fancied Rajasthan from the start and they were pretty bad today. Cant complain about what I did in the market, just didnt pick the winner. Last few days have been going like that and there isnt much I can or say do about it either, just have to play your way through a bad patch of form and hopefully not lose too much.

Cricket: -EUR98.29 | Horse Racing: EUR4.29 Total P&L: -EUR94.00

The cricket runs bets were a bit odd today I have to say, both batsmen I was afraid of got out early and the other two, who are poor to be honest, both got over the line. No complaints but a €50 loss on the day, looking forward to tomorrow though and we'll see how it goes in the two games.

Cricket - Runs Line Strategy

Having finished college completely I'm around more and can finally give this a proper go. I have €400 in bet365 from yesterdays win on Fame And Glory so I'll start with that, I'm giving it €500 in total, in two parts - one of €150 on each batsman and then if that loses - a second go of €100 on each batsman. I'll be backing under the line on bet365 both opening batsmen every innings this week in the IPL, its something I've talked about before and I think its profitable, we'll see how it goes this week anyway and if I lose the €500 I'll leave it at that and accept its not worth it. Both lines are normally over 20 runs and with the feild set in the first six overs, batsmen can normally fly over the line or get out early. Having €150 on both of them at 5/6 to get under, if one gets one and the other gets over the line - you lose €25, while if both get out you win €250. Theres players I'm not too keen on backing under the line like Hayden and theres games when a team is chasing a low total - I wouldnt be too keen backing under the lines there either, but I'm doing it every innings this week regardless of anything. If the first lot of €150 bets lose, I'll go to €100 on each, but will be mainly €150 until I lose. I dont except to win on every game but hopefully its a good start today, theres some great opening batsmen in todays game, it would be terrible to start a system and it fails the first game!

Fame And Glory

Dont normally back Ante-Post, I'm not really a fan of it, always a chance the horse doesnt turn up and I hate that. Anyway, for the first time in probably a year, I made an exception with this fella this morning at 7/1 with Paddy Power. He is a machine, very rare you have every person in the stable going on about the one horse but everyone down there really loves this horse. Obviously Yeats is the daddy down there but Fame And Glory is getting to be a close second. I've no plans to lay off either, he should shorten up before the big day and will go off favourite, I really think he'll win.

10/05/2009

Just back from Leopardstown so no bet on Betfair today. I did have €200 on Fame And Glory at evens for the challenge before I left though, so it was a winning day and a nice day at the races too.

Have the Betfair screen shot for the week here and it doesnt look good at all, -€1,090 for the week and thats pretty terrible by anyones standards. I've just checked my records though and I was on €10,710 last sunday night and after today I'm €10,702 so it was a brilliant week with the bookies. Although I havent won anything this week its been a good one getting exams out of the way, I presume results for this week wouldnt be good enough if I had a family to support and the likes but that type of thing doesnt effect me thank god, but I understand how it can get to some people though, and I've often thought that if I did ever have a family I'd probably get a job if I wasnt very, very successful gambling. In general though wifes seem to be annoying so I think I'll hold off on ordering one from wifes-are-us just yet.

Tiger in the last group tonight, I'm on!

09/05/2009

Gambling when very hungover is never a good idea. Exams finished yesterday so no bet on Betfair at all yesterday and didnt make it out of bed until around half two today for the last IPL game. Not one flip flop for the whole match and a 1.01 train towards the end, I was probably never going to win anyway so the loss hasnt bothered me in the slightest because its bound to not go your way a few games every week. I had no chance to go all green and never even a chance to go level really, I cant complain I was just wrong the first time I entered the market.

Want to get things together quickly now because I think I've lost overall on the games this week. Although its been a really busy week with exams and early mornings, delighted its finished and can do things as I want now. Have to say I'm not a fan of being woken up early, happiness starts tomorrow!

Cricket: -EUR312.62 Total P&L: -EUR312.62

Aristocrat

07/05/2009

A really, really good day. Even though the Betfair P&L shows a little loss, it was a fantastic result, I was sitting at 3 o'clock looking at a €400 loss again.

Still learning the ropes on test cricket, I'm very short sighted and the five day market is hard to understand fully for me. I like working towards a target or time frame and the five days just seems endless because basically three wickets can fall in ten minutes and then nothing for the next ten hours. I cant cope with that and not understanding the time frame means not understanding the odds, I'm always miles away with my draw price.

I like watching it though and thinking about what I would do without actually doing it and betting on the session runs on Betfair. Bet365 were going over 6.5 runs for the last few batsmen, I thought that was insane? But actually watching it, its not far off what most of them got. And their over runs where around 2.5 per over too, one over of spin was 4/7 under 2.5 runs, I thought that was mad.

Anyway all that aside, wow was I unlucky this morning. Backed 90 runs or more in the first session and England take bad light at 11.30! I laughed. Only England. Then come back out and I need four runs to win with 15 or so minutes to go before lunch, then Jimmy Anderson gets hit on the head and lies on the ground for the next 10 minutes and I end up two runs short, dont even ask because I cant even explain.

What I did learn though is that tail-enders dont hang around long and they dont hit it out of the park either. So I backed under the innings line for the Windies when they got into their tail, they were in full collapse mode too at the time. Thought about backing over the line for their next innings but didnt, I still need a bit more time watching it.

The horses went well today, first time in running for a while and won over €250, I did however lose €250 on Masterofthehorse before I won the €250 in running. The less said about the ride the better, but people talking about it being "cheating" just because the stable second string won are mad.

Cricket: -EUR41.54 | Horse Racing: EUR15.87 Total P&L: -EUR25.67

06/05/2009

Cannot believe Barca are through to the final, unreal. Anyway, a really poor day here, greed kills and it really hurt me today. None of my bets were that poor, it was just the way I played them that was very bad.

First off, the cricket was a disaster. Laid Mumbai at 1.4 for €1,000 and when I got my flip flop, Deccan were trading at 1.7 or so and I didnt go all green, why not! I was letting it ride because I thought the total was far too much for Mumbai to chase. Mumbai start hitting sixes and fours and I back out, then they fall apart and for some reason chasing the market because I feel like a mug, I lay Deccan at 1.3 and it leaves me with -200 on Deccan. It was just so poor. I was level before the 1.3 lay, losing nothing, move on, but no. I should have been all green early that was the point and my greed made a mess of things.

The soccer was much the same, I had €100 on over 2.5 goals and €100 on over 4.5 goals. The plan was for an early Barca goal and the game would open up, I also thought and said to friends that if Chelsea scored first that was that. Why didnt I trade out then because both markets fell in price, greed. Very annoying basically today because I called things right and worked myself into great positions only to blow it.

But I'll learn from this today, the cricket did hurt. Just because I'm over €10,000 now on the challenge and won €5,000 in so many days doesnt mean a win of €100 on a market isnt fantastic, I'm going for €200 and €300 now when I shouldnt, its being greedy. And its probably too much to ask on every market. From tomorrow onwards I'm going back to basics, try and get green early, that was always the plan at the start of the challenge, win €50 a day. Its been successful so why change. The truth is, you chip away every day and take as little risks as possible without liability going over €250 and if you win it all adds up very quickly. I've taken out a good bit from Betfair and gone back to just €700 in the account now to play with in the next few days, just to make sure I dont lose €400 in a day again, its happened twice this week and its unacceptable put simply.

Cricket: -EUR197.02| Soccer: -EUR200.00 Total P&L: -EUR397.02

05/05/2009

Fantastic. Fantastic. Fantastic. United through to the Champions League final. FANTASTIC!

Missed a lot of the cricket today because I had an exam, but never trust Kolkata to do anything, they are pants. The captain is so annoying too, normally dont have a go at players but he really is poor, and somehow he always ends up being in the right place and the wrong time for the team. He drops catches, wastes balls when batting and cant hit the stumps from where he fields. They are a poor team overall though without Gayle and I wont be betting on them to do anything in the future, they cannot be trusted.

Just trying to study for law tomorrow and its not happening because RTE are brilliant..
Dunphy to Souness "You dont know what your talking about"
Souness to Dunphy "Where did you manage?"
Dunphy "Er, er, er"
I LOVE IT!

Cricket: -EUR81.11 | Soccer: EUR10.59 Total P&L: -EUR70.52

04/05/2009

The most important part of gambling is not losing. People get confused with the trying to win money part but its not about that, its about not losing. The winning part comes natural if youve got the talent or skill to do well on Betfair. Today, the P&L looks terrible, and its the worst day on the blog so far. But it actually doesnt feel like a really bad day, just all the losers add up really quickly and you look at the P&L at the end of the day and think hang on thats shocking.

Went to The Curragh today, had €200 and €100 on two horses, both lost, wasnt too bothered though because it happens and you cant be right all the time. The cricket was a lay at 1.02 that just didnt pay off and the snooker was backing Murphy at 6.2 during the week, its only settled tonight. I actually dont think I did anything very wrong today but still have made a loss of €440.

Theres no point letting it get to you but it does in a little way, €440 is a weeks wages to some people and its not a nice feeling to lose it in one day, although I've had much worse days. It all adds up very fast, the three losses were OK alone but put them together and it looks terrible. Its important to keep your head when these things happen, would I have done the cricket lay if I werent €300 down already, probably not.

Its all well and good when youre in good form and winning, but when things go bad, money management is the key. Theres never a last bet or last race, sometimes you just have to accept a loss, if you can manage that youre well on youre way to being successful. Its very hard some days though. Anyway, if anyone has a lend of a brain for tomorrow between 9.30 and 11.30 for an accounting exam it would be most helpful.

Cricket: -EUR40.00 | Horse Racing: -EUR300.00 | Snooker: -EUR100.00 Total P&L: -EUR440.00

Its days like this if you had kids you'd sell them to Michael Jackson.

03/05/2009

Quiet enough day here without any drama, although I'm still nackered. Had to take an hour break after Heart Shaped ran in the 1000G. Just gutted she finished 4th, more so because she had her head all over the place and was messing Johnny about for the first 2F and he had her back further than planned because of that, not his fault though. To finish in front of the favourite, making up a bit of ground and still not to be placed was heartbreaking. Left a few lays in the system all at under evens so just lost €100 in the place market, I did have €400 on. Had a nice touch on the Ballydoyle horse in the first at Gowran so it wasnt a terrible day.

The cricket went well today again, to be honest I cant really remember what I did in the first match it seems so long ago, I'm fairly sure I caught an early flip flop and went €140 all green pretty quickly. In the second match, I had a brilliant position after the first innings but Bangalore came out and start hitting fours everywhere, I had to reverse to €30 all green after having the chance to go €150 all green at the break, lost interest in the game after that as someone came over. Only had one cricket bet with the bookies and the screen shot is below.

The tennis bet was Nadal to win in Rome, I backed him before the start of the tournament, without having watched one of the matches all week its nice to win. Have another week of exams next week, I'm not looking forward to it at all but even so this week as gone well having them and hopefully next week will go well too. Anyway, its sunday so the Betfair screen shot for this week is below, time to relax for the evening its badly needed!

Cricket: EUR163.69 | Horse Racing: -EUR100.00 | Tennis: EUR91.49 Total P&L: EUR155.18

Air Chief Marshal

02/05/2009

Wont say too much as I'm in a hurry out. Fantastic day here with the cricket going very well, both on Betfair and bet365. The bet365 screen shot is in the post below. Backed Leinster at half time to beat Munster, my first bet with Blue Square for the challenge, they were playing brilliant and 11/8 was too big a price not to take.

Heart Shaped might be the one for the 1000G tomorrow. Working well with a run under her belt, I've seen worse 16/1 shots. Rip Van Winkle ran well today and will win the Irish version, wouldnt be rushing to back him for the Derby like everyone is saying. Anyway, got to dash.

Cricket: EUR308.76 | Horse Racing: -EUR300.00 | Soccer: EUR71.47 Total P&L: EUR80.23

Cricket Bets Today

01/05/2009

First day of May and wow what a frustrating day. It was one of those days you think youre cursed, laid Punjab at 1.35, I thought it was a fantastic lay at the time but as Vuvraj got going I went all red. He gets out the very next ball and I'm sitting here thinking "FOOK ME," it basically went down hill for Punjab after that and they ended up losing. Just so annoying for it all to happen one ball after going red, I could have been massively green an over later, thats cricket though. Messed up the first game too, that was more me taking on the market though and I blame myself completely for that loss, could have easily went all green but stead in my position for the whole game and it didnt work. A terrible day on Betfair, it could have easily been a €400 profit day with my positions.

Cricket: -EUR239.94 Total P&L: -EUR239.94

The day wasnt all bad though, had a fantastic run of results on William Hill. BUT wow, I tried doing my normal bet lately of unders on the two opening batsmen, I dont really know what happened, but I got a green light for one and a red light for the other as his line had changed. Fair enough I thought they took the other one, well they didnt and he got out the next ball! How annoying! Was really pissed off and thought I'm going after them now and I started betting in €300's during the first innings. Luckily enough the bets I did won but I wasnt really thinking at the time and it could have gone very wrong, the first line I did was an absolute mug bet, how he got to it I dont know, the two after that were OK as I had the first bet winnings too fall back on if they lost, withdrew the money when the first innings was over after that. I'm delighted I won money off them because I really didnt see why they didnt accept the line that hadnt changed, I dont mind the line changing sure youre betting in running so their allowed not to accept one but there was no reason not to accept the other one.