30/07/2009

Just a quick update, still in Goodwood, yesterday was fantastic with Rip Van Winkle winning and it really was a brilliant day. Cricket didnt go too well very early this morning, trading from an internet stream again, laid Sri Lanka at 1.09, I must admit I looked at the P&L from yesterday before I laid it and then laid it for the total winnings from yesterday. Maybe shouldnt have gone that big but it was an amazing lay at that price with Pakistan needing 40ish at just a tiny bit over a run a ball, although I fully understand it was that price for a reason and I was playing with fire with the wickets down (tailenders only left). It was just about getting to the stage of greening out when the wicket fell, obviously its disappointing to lose, but losses like this dont really bother me because I know I've done the right thing as regard the odds.

In the third test, if Australia bat well all day tomorrow that basically rules out England winning for me (the odds reflect that though), but that the rate their scoring the draw seems a bit short so Australia are the bet for me at the moment. A middle order that includes Bell, Prior and an out of form Bopara doesnt inspire confidence no matter how good the pitch is, obviously the Aussies will have to bowl better, but bat well tomorrow and its a two horse race between them and the draw, and I think the draw is short. Hope it doesnt rain now. Only seen 20 minutes of it in the hotel room this evening but dont like the look of England in the field, its almost as if their going through the motions thinking its going to be a draw, I've watched The West Indies for long enough to know that type of attitude doesnt work. Rightly or wrongly I like the look of Australia here, lets see how England cope not batting first and getting a score on the board.

Anyway, nothing lost nothing gained over the last two days..

Cricket: -EUR321.78 | Horse Racing: EUR327.88 Total P&L: EUR6.10

Goodwood - Come On Rip

Have to say I really enjoyed Goodwood yesterday, far more relaxed than Ascot and youre able to enjoy yourself more, I suppose theres less group ones but still you have good horses. There'll be more pressure today though because Rip Van Winkle lines up at 3-25, I'm just out of bed so havent read the papers, but everyone back home is talking about a foot problem so I'm sure its been reported in the Racing Post and he'll probably drift as people like to latch on to these things. But if he runs theres nothing wrong with him and thats a fact, I havent seen the horse this week but there was a problem reported before the 2000G and then at Sandown too, both times there was nothing wrong with him, so from my point of view right now I'll take it with a pinch of salt. Maybe AP's just wanting something to fall back on should he get beat, I'd guess thats the reason.

I seriously want the horse to win! Not lumping on by any means, probably have €100 or something around that on course to shout for him more you know but hes a hard horse to explain. If you seen him in Tipperary honest to god youre stood there saying wow, hes amazing, then he just doesnt do it on the track, but funnily enough at the same time he always finds a way to look like the best horse in the race while getting beat. I cant work him out anyway, but I would love it Kevin Keegan style if he won today, just to shut a few people up more than anything, hes a lovely horse. I know people always slag him off for being "over rated" but as I said see him at home and all you can say is wow, Johnny picks in the big races for a reason. Hopefully he cruises it today.

Anyway all that aside, yesterday went well after an early flight, my biggest win on the horses was laying Main Aim, thats what I logged into Betfair mobile to do, but then after having one or two drinks started having €20 on the last few races to mirror what I was backing on course. Very silly really and it wont be happening today, although if Rip goes over 2/1 I'll back him for the challenge too.

I'll have to go to gamblers anonymous when I get home, we obviously had a early flight and were knackered after the day straight through to hotel and then the race course by train, so we stayed in our hotel and ordered room service last night. While the girlfriends fast asleep beside me I've my laptop on, Betfair open, earphones in and trading a cricket match off a live stream. But I'd seriously not recommend trading off the internet! I was fairly all over the place switching between windows etc, you cant look at the market while looking at the match, and obviously people are miles ahead too. The fact I was watching a little box I couldnt really see the ball or anything. Talk about addicted, she has no idea this was happening either. Anyway, I won, whos the daddy! At one stage I had €700 on Bangladesh and only €80 or €90 red on West Indies, I know what a game to pick to trade at night on the internet two mad teams! Switched on to the Windies after a flip flop and kind of threw away some green, obviously did a few things wrong because I couldnt really see what was happening but I was delighted with the win and slept much better after.

Its Galways Plate day back home, it doesnt take much to say Weld will have a winner or two again today. I'd say Teach Nua will be backed off the boards if it hasnt rained, I've been told Northern Alliance is a non runner due to the ground so it must be bad, I was going to back him in it but hopefully Wins Now can do it for JP now. I thought Mullins would win the 3-45 and the first at 2-00 too, I hate backing against Weld though in galway, hopefully I can find somewhere to watch all the races from in Goodwood. A lot has changed with the ground though so I'm only guessing from over here, hope everyone has a good day, come on Rip!

Cricket: EUR168.56 | Horse Racing: EUR7.17 Total P&L: EUR175.73

27/07/2009

God I'm glad I'm going away for a few days tomorrow, had a real shocker today. I dont normally complain about sportsmen or teams often, but I feel I can have a right moan about Durham, they were woeful. I dont have enough words to describe how bad they were, but anyway maybe my bet on them after they were four down was too big, but some of the shots they played, if I didnt laugh at them I'd cry. All I wanted was them to knock around a few single or twos, keep their heads, just for 2 or 3 overs and get themselves in, but I got wild swinging and running. It was awful to watch. The worse thing about it was the odds, obviously the market could see how brainless they were but the runs, overs left, pitch and outfield were all basically in their favour so I thought I was getting value all the time because the prices were in the 1.1s etc.

Having €250 on them four down maybe was too big a bet, and that was my mistake, but I still feel let down by them. Now here comes the bit were I let myself down, the second game was Sussex v Warwickshire and basically my trading was pants. I had the Durham game still on my brain and it showed, I should have just walked away but I've gone and lost an extra €140, not happy. My first bet was €200 on Sussex too at evens, Warks got off to a good start and after losing on the first game I didnt have the bottle to let the bet run so went €50 all red. Then tried to make it better late on, make it worse through some terrible trading, while on the phone too at the same time. Just a shocker of an evening, no real excuses just Durham being woeful, but I had too much on. The second game was all my fault, a proper poor day after a few good days and I'm glad to be getting on a plane to Goodwood in the morning.

Welds last two runners in Galway were very disappointing, although the one in the bumper I'd give another chance too on better ground. The one I backed in the 8-10 was terrible though, went down to 6/4 too! Maybe should have laid off because that was a terrible price, I thought he'd go off around 9/4, I thought he'd win though. But it was alright no real damage done, just minus €50 on the horses overall for today, the cricket did the real damage, been a long while since I lost over €400 in one day. I'm still happy with the last few days overall and cant be too depressed, it'll probably work out to be a good kick up the arse going to Goodwood, I'll focus more. Theres not really too much I can say, was just a bad day on my part and I dont feel like I did anything very wrong really. I maybe need to work out the days for betting big and the days for betting not so big, that might be the one thing I'll take from today. Not the end of the world!

Cricket: -EUR384.96 | Horse Racing: EUR190.40 Total P&L: -EUR194.56

Money For Nothing With Ladbrokes

God knows how many times I've been told Welds in the last will win now today. Name of the horse is New Rules, its owned by JP McManus and I think thats adding fuel to the fire. But anyway serious word for this in Galway, it hasnt ran before though and I've been burnt before backing unraced tips. Ladbrokes are going 5/2, while you can lay at 3.15 on Betfair, most probably less nearer to the off but I'm happy with a chance to win €80 for a tenner (commission on the €200). Why people continue to back on Betfair at lower odds is beyond me. For what its worth, from what I've been told the horse will win, but I'm more than happy locking in profit, after all it hasnt ran on a race course yet.

Galway Monday (Currently +21.17pts)

Just a quick update after I posted yesterday evening managed to win a few quid on the cricket and darts, so the P&L for yesterday now reads..

Cricket: EUR28.52 | Darts: EUR14.28 | Gaelic Games: EUR181.95 Total P&L: EUR224.75

Anyway on to Galway, its a mad meeting, for mad people. Fact! I used to go down every year and bet fairly big, drink for the whole week and come home not remembering much but in the last few years I've started going to Goodwood instead, and it will be the same this year. You can say what you like about Galway, but honestly form means very little! Its all about gut feelings and word of mouth. You can sit and study the form for hours, it wont get you very far, the best advice is just go and enjoy yourself and get locked, and thats normally what everyone bar the jockeys do, except for Thursday night because everyone just gets locked that night! Paul carberry swings from the roof in the hole in the wall pub, a sight to behold, seriously.

Everyone will tell you to follow Weld, and their right. While AP focuses on Goodwood, Weld normally has a free rein in the maidens, but he does bring all his handicappers here on good marks. Stunning View will be backed off the boards in the 6-20, the first real Weld hotpot and everyone will get stuck in whos down there, no reason not to either having finished 2nd in the best maiden run in Ireland this year at The Curragh. It'll take an awful lot to beat him, but at 4/7 - 1/2 thats a tad bit short with Banyan Tree against him, hes no mug and ran an OK race in Naas last week, maybe didnt finish it off as well as he travelled, so he steps back down in trip to 7F. It'll be close but it takes a brave man to go against Weld in Galway, but at 4/7 I cant back him, if I was on course I'd back AP's but the fact I'm not, I'll just watch.

Weld again has the favourite in the 5-10, 8-10 and 8-40. He has the favourite in four out of seven races, think thats too much, well you'll have to get used to it because Galway goes on for seven days. They wont all win though so you have to pick out the false favourites, but Art Broker looks to have a great chance in the 8-10. Three runs and straight into a handicap, as I said DK thinks this is a good mark, otherwise the horse wouldnt run here and he'll go off shorter than the 3/1 now should he have a winner earlier. I'm not going to go into detail on his form but it looks to be strong enough, you just go off form here and you'll lose over the week. But this looks a typical Weld Galway winner, and if he goes off over 3/1 he'll most likely lose too so I'll take a chance and have €50 on him at 3/1. Its the first day of Galway and I want to have a bet more than anything else.

Weld has the bumper favourite owned by JP McManus, could you picture the price if he has a double beforehand. If word goes around Galway that its fancied it will be backed as if defeat is out of the question. While in the main race of the day at 7-00 my two would be Truckers Delight and Zaralabad, even though Mountain Snow is a total outsider the horse loves Galway so dont be surprised if he popped up, you couldnt pick him going by his form anyway but that wouldnt bother me. Ruby will probably have a winner as well, dont ask me what race, but he normally wins something.

Art Broker 8-10 Galway, 2pts win @ 3/1 with William Hill.

26/07/2009

Fantastic day, just brilliant. Great to see Alfred Nobel do the business, although Johnny did leave it a bit late! He likes to scare us I think, the horse is much better than the bare form of today, anyone that bangs on about team tactics (Lydia Hislop!) only has to look at Joey riding out head down to the line. Johnny had to shout over to him because Joey thought he had won, and before anyone says he was shouting "slow down" he wasnt, he was shouting "WHOS THE DADDY!"

But it really was a fantastic day. The GAA went well too, Dublin hurlers got beat, dont really rate them so got money off that. While Galway bottled it completely against Waterford, I had laid Galway at 1.3 when I got home at half time, they were matched at a low of 1.06 for €1,700 too, dont usually get those kind of gubbings on GAA.

Gaelic Games: EUR181.95 Total P&L: EUR181.95

Been a great couple of days now in a row and up over the €15,000 mark! I was at €13,500 after last Monday night, delighted. I can stop moaning about being stuck between €12,000 and €14,000 now! Its been pretty much a perfect few days and hopefully it will continue into next week, myself and Emma are heading over to Goodwood for a few days so it should be a quiet week as regards the challenge, but I'm sure I'll find a few minutes to post at some stage, I'll have the laptop with me and I want to keep in touch with whats going on in Galway. I see DK is up to his old tricks already tomorrow! Anyway the weeks screen shot..

The Phoenix Stakes - Alfred Nobel

Just to say it has indeed rained overnight and the ground is now heavy, they got 10mm. Thats a plus for the main danger Walk On Bye, but speaking to a few people this morning the general feeling is that Alfred Nobel will go on it. After watching his run back at The Curragh when he finished 3rd I tend to agree he'll go on it, I think its just a case of hes improving every run and throughout the year, and that run wasnt a bad one, its just hes a better horse now than he was then.

The off is 3-40 and it looks a two horse race. In Some Respect, Beethoven and King Ledley have all been beaten by one of the front two in the betting at some stage, with King Ledley being beaten by them both. I know the Stack camp really rate their filly so it would be no surprise should money come for her and push Alfred Nobel out a bit, but at 6/4 right now I think thats a brilliant bet for me. Theres plenty of confidence behind them both, so its basically which side of the fence you sit today.

But this is my view anyway, I'd question Walk On Byes form, she beat Mister Tee on her first run by a short head in what was a weak maiden, alright she got boxed in and should have won further but it was still a weak maiden. I backed Mister Tee because it looked his race to lose, and hes not a world beater. Alfred Nobel finished comfortably in front of him when he finished 3rd here and he has improved with two wins since. Walk On Byes second run was again a weak looking race, the two Ballydoyle horses that day werent fancied in the slightest and their far from the top of the tree in Tipperary. Walk On Bye beat King Ledley into second, Alfred Nobel has also beaten King Ledley here on Derby day, pretty easily. So I dont think Walk On Byes form is good enough to beat Alfred Nobel on paper.

At the start of the season the one thing Johnny kept saying was that he'll get better every run and as the seasons gone on, so far hes been spot on with that judgement, hopefully Alfred Nobel can improve again today. Hes not the type of horse that will win by far, he'll make everything look hard when it isnt, I was stood at the rails the last day as he went past and it couldnt have been any easier to be honest.

As I said, its going to be whichever side of the fence you sit but personally I thought yesterday that Alfred Nobel was a certainty, the rain last night has knocked that view down a peg or two but I still think hes good enough to beat Walk On Bye. If she has improved and goes flying past in the last half furlong I'll have no complaints but I'm happy having €250 on Alfred at 6/4.

Just to say, the points thing there on the side, I'm going to stick to 2pts win on every selection from now on just for handiness sake. But I seriously like Alfred Nobel today, he would be a max bet on the old points system. The fact I won €200 yesterday for the challenge takes a bit of pressure off the bet, but I'll be having a bigger bet on course. We'll know whos the best by 4-00!

25/07/2009

Steady day again with not much to tell, the cricket went well although it was fairly hard game to trade, a 1.01 train from the start with just a few bumps in the tracks as it went along. Only getting involved in the second innings is a fantastic help when this happens for me. After backing at 1.35 just kept topping up after price bounces on a wicket at 1.15, it would only take 9 or 10 runs to get the price back to 1.07ish. The GAA went well, lumped on Kildare, we were woeful so it wasnt without its scares but lets be honest Wicklow should never beat us, it did look like they were going to at one stage though! I was fairly relaxed watching it at the same time. Doesnt look too good for the next round should we get a good team though.

I'm incandescent with rage (seriously!) that Totesport are going 13/8 on Alfred Nobel tomorrow and wont take a bet off me, thats a massive price. Clueless bunch of guessers, I'm gutted I cant take it. But anyway, nothing I can do about it and I'll wait until the morning now before I back him, even I miss the price by a tick or two I want to see if it rains or not as thats more of a plus for Walk On Bye. That fact I cant back it at 13/8 now makes me wait until the morning anyway, the Irish firms are only going 11/8 (they know), but I'll be up early to take that hopefully should the rain stay away. I'll post in the morning if I do back him. Anyone that likes free money, €200 on at 13/8 and you can lay off at 2.5 as I type on Betfair, €25 for nothing if he wins. I know the stack camp really like their filly but sure we'll see whos the better horse tomorrow wont we!

Cricket: EUR120.84 | Darts: -EUR20.00 Total P&L: EUR100.84

24/07/2009

Wont say much, just about to settle down and watch a film with the girlfriend and had a few glasses of wine already. Good day today, funny old game, I was talking the other day about lacking confidence well today I was oozing confidence and basically everything went perfect. I hate to say perfect it sounds arrogant but it was perfect! Both teams traded under 1.3, most saying it was an easy game to trade, I actually hate when anyone says that. Theres no such thing as an easy game to trade or a traders dream, its nonsense, you can easily be on the wrong end of everything.

But anyway, laid England at 1.3 a couple of times and kept greening out as it went along, and if they came back down to 1.3 - 1.4 I'd lay them again and green out at 1.6 - 1.8. Have a screen shot because it was looking like a tie! I was here as the ball was bowled, one wicket left, one run needed "dont be a tie, dont be a tie, dont be a tie, dont be a tie!" They ran through for the single, if it had of hit he was gone. I know they had a few balls to spare but didnt fancy the last man in on strike at all, and they kept the powerplay until late so they were all around the bat. It was a good day anyway.

Messed about a bit on the darts in fivers, said I'd keep it small. Seriously looking forward to this weekends GAA, looks like theres going to be a few brilliant games on, come on Kildare! Hopefully Golden Sword can win the King George too but I'm not backing him, strong pace will suit the others just as much as it will suit him, a race to watch. Hope everyone had a good day, and have a good night!

Cricket: EUR363.30 | Darts: EUR9.52 Total P&L: EUR372.82

WHOS THE DADDY!

23/07/2009

Dont have time to say much, just back from Leopardstown, the last winner got me out of trouble to come out level. Still seriously annoyed Roan Inish was allowed to run after what happened her in the stalls, it was kaput before the race even started. I'd say about 10 times out of 10 when the stalls open a horses bolts out, but Roan Inish didnt, why? Because she had her foot stuck over the side of the stalls thats why! I felt a bit sorry for her when Kevin pushed her to the front straight after the break, he gave her a harder race than was needed after what had happened, she didnt look to be enjoying it at all. Good horse but that might have ruined her. Calmed down a little now but I was seriously pissed off watching it happen. Casual Conquest wasnt good enough no issues there and Cape Blanco looked really good! But still needed the last one to win to get to level for the night even after backing the first winner too, lost a good few trebles, doubles and trixies. I should stop doing them really but my eyes light up with the returns if it clicks, I'll have to stop.

The U19 cricket went well this morning, unexpectedly! England were 1.05 to chase down 192 I think, about that anyway, it looked really short and I just took it on in hope more than anything else. They ended up losing! I was cuffed to lay a 1.05 loser, went all green for €225 at one stage just before the flip flop. If it had of been a more important game I might have had a massive green but I was delighted with €225 off a game I wasnt expecting money off. Theres a lot of reasons to lay short prices on one day cricket though, even if the 1.1ish goes out to the 1.2s its still a fantastic trade, you dont lose much either if it goes kaput.

Cricket: EUR215.95 | Horse Racing: EUR159.94 Total P&L: EUR375.89

Leopardstown Thursday (Currently +20.72pts)

Cracking card tonight in leopardstown, best evenings racing for a while, kind of annoying they dont have student fees for the evening meetings and youve to pay full wack to get in. Lots of talk of getting more people racing and things all this dont help at all, there wasnt many people my age last week at the track.

Anyway, three horses I really strongly fancy tonight, Cape Blanco in the 6-30, Roan Inish in the 7-00 and Casual Conquest in the 8-00. I think all three of them will win, if not go close, dont really have a favourite between the three of them either, will be looking to do trebles and trixies tonight out there. And obviously back them on their own too.

Cape Blanco is more of a bet that I've been told to back him, rather than on form. He won his first race in Fairyhouse well though and its always nice when AP's win first time out because they always come on for the run. They really fancy this tonight so I've no issue going in fairly big, I like Miracle Match as a horse but you'd have to think Cape Blanco will have too much for him, while Perfect Symmetry is a funny type of horse, hes alright but no world beater and even though hes won a listed race, that was an awful race. Again you'd think Cape Blanco will be too good for him, he has bags of improvement to come. Missed the boat a bit with the price this morning but 8/11 is still fair price, even already there'll be serious fingers burnt if he doesnt win.

Roan Inish is a personal fancy, second to Cabaret at The Curragh on her first run, everyone seen what Cabaret went on to do last week and if Roan Inish can run like she did that day, she should have no trouble winning this race. She'll have no problem with the ground either, I'd say it'll be soft even without any more rain. Queen Of Troy wont like the ground and is the least fancied of all AP's runner tonight, even though that wont stop her winning! It'd be disappointing if Roan Inish couldnt win here.

Dont have to say much about Casual Conquest, hes a fantastic horse and is miles clear of the rest in this race. He'll have no issue with the ground tonight either after winning so easily at The Curragh on far worse ground. The second has boosted the form no end since then too. And while Beach Bunny is a good horse, you'd have to think Casual Conquest is miles better and on best form he'd win easily.

Cape Blanco 6-30 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 8/11 with William Hill.

Roan Inish 7-00 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 11/10 with Bet365.

Casual Conquest 8-00 Leopardstown, 2pts win @ 4/6 with Ladbrokes.

Just to continue with my money for nothing idea, tried backing two horses today for €300 and €200 with the idea to lay off on Betfair, its kind of worked but not enough really. I'll get a fiver out of each though and thats alright, €10 for nothing is great. But what I did learn today is that there has to be a bigger gap between the odds to make it pay, still learning how to do it. I still reckon it will work for me, I'll keep a record of how much I make off doing it for the next few weeks to see.

22/07/2009

Great hours trading this evening, how in gods name Lancs were down to 1.15 after 7 or 8 overs was insane! Absolutely insane. Laid 1.17 and 1.26 for just about €850 and got €50 matched at 8 on Surrey, the top price on offer that the time, I was cuffed. Didnt think Surrey would go as low as they did (1.25 ish), I went all green at 1.6 Lancs, bit disappointed it rained straight after because with the out field wet I would have let the trade run a bit more (easier to score runs). But at the time I was actually delighted with €150 all green and was pretty nervy while in the market, funny how a knock of confidence like yesterday affects everything. Probably on a normal day I might have let it run a bit more to the flip flop but I was keen to get out as quick as I could.

When I'm full of confidence, the market doesnt really scare me into making moves but when your confidence is low it does make you think youre wrong, even when youre not really. But I actually laughed at the screen when I saw 1.15 to lay, it was a nice way to get back to winning ways after yesterdays shocker. If yesterday didnt happen, I would have definitely won more tonight, I know that sounds cocky but I didnt have the confidence to let my position run as far as I would normally, I was scared of losing to be honest. A bad way to be. But a winning day today gets rid of yesterdays memories.

What can you do about confidence, pretty much nothing. Its just the moment, you cant make yourself confident all of a sudden while trading, and being over confident comes back to bite you too. One of those things in the head you cant explain, what makes some people listen to tipsters or what someone else thinks? Is it because they think their better than they are? No ones better than anyone else, but you still listen to other people, explain that one! Sod thinking about it I'm going to watch TV and relax, onwards and upwards to tomorrow!

Cricket: EUR147.50 Total P&L: EUR147.50

21/07/2009

Woeful evening. Bit annoyed I've lost on darts again, and thats puts me on a loss overall this year on it, might stay away from it for the rest of the week. But more so because I came home to bet on the cricket and it was called off, end up trading the darts instead and I was just woeful, no other word to describe it. The Part v Van Der Voort match did most of the damage, two of them were playing poorly but not as poorly as I traded the market. No complaints with anything, it was all me. Useless.

Darts: -EUR286.68 Total P&L: -EUR286.68

I always like to take out a few quid from Betfair after a losing day, handy enough for not going on tilt and I've just left €150 in the account now for tomorrow. Just thinking in the last half hour, I'm a bit tired from bouncing up and down each week with the total, want more consistency in my betting and everything else that goes with it, its no good losing €100 and then winning €100 etc etc. Want to improve that, and thinking more about it, if I win €30 a day each month thats €900 a month. Add a few things that youre good at and a few strong fancies and you could hit €1,500 a month, which I'd happily take no questions asked. Win €50 a day and its €1,500 a month, its only when you sit down and think about it, it all adds up so quickly. Sometimes I forget that and push a bit too hard.

For the time being anyway I'm going to try and con my way to €30 or so each day for the next while, I dont like targets each day because it could lead to chasing and a bad day then becomes a terrible day. But will play it small and try to settle in to a bit of consistency for the rest of the week, with as little risks as possible. That Definitive Edge edge bet yesterday was a good example of money for nothing, I know some people really hate arbers but at the end of the day if you can win money from it, so what if people dont like it. Wont focus on it but really feel I can pick out a few each week in Ireland fairly handy that could get me around €100 for nothing each week, and just stick to what I'm doing but in smaller stakes and aim for more consistent results each week, stop the bouncing around and keep moving forward, even if its a slow process.

I struggle with my staking an awful lot, good example being tonight, probably trading the numbers I would have done on the cricket but on darts. Have to sort out that too. I cant complain too much overall like, I just hate losing! Just more consistency will help me along, it breaks my heart to add €100 to the total for three or four days in a row and then get knocked back with a €300 losing day.

Dunguib Fails Banned Substance Test

From RTE:

Cheltenham and Punchestown bumper winner Dunguib has tested positive for a banned substance.

The postive test was returned after the horses' win at the Paddy Power Champion Bumper at Punchestown in April.

The results of a 'B' sample are still being awaited but if the results match, Philip Fenton's stable star will be stripped of its title.

http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2009/0721/dunguib.html

Who would have thought that! Massive rep gone down the toilet there, and word was JP McManus offered the owners a massive sum of money for the horse and it was rejected a couple of times when JP kept going higher and higher. Hard to believe hes as good as its been made out now to be honest.

20/07/2009

Just watching a few bits of the Real Madrid and Shamrock Rovers match this evening, Rovers were robbed! Didnt watch it all but Real looked pants, I know this was Rovers world cup final basically and Real probably couldnt care less but still, Rovers arent even top of the league of Ireland. You'd expect better from Real and I'm still not convinced they'll win La Liga with all the money spent. 80M for Ronaldo, you know much Rovers paid for their highest transfer? €25,000. Ronaldo spent that alone on hair gel in boots Sunday afternoon on Grafton Street. Even though if Barca buy Ibrahimovic that'll give Real more chance of winning. Bit scary I had €400 typed in at 1.12 thinking its a free €50 nearly, dont know how I didnt hit enter but the thought running through my head at the time was "Ah here Stephen, its July and youre betting on a Shamrock Rovers friendly, what are you doing ya tosser." I hate football betting, would have won alright but 86th minute, would have lost half a stone sweating on it.

The only good thing to come out of the game was the blue Real Madrid training top looked nice, getting it tomorrow, and the red haired girl sitting behind the manager, she was amazing. If I didnt have a girlfriend I'd be out on the streets of Dublin now looking for her, but anyway the dishwasher broke today so its looking odds on I'll have to get married soon enough. I'm not joking dont know what happened, it was working yesterday and now its kaput. Disaster. What type of pro-punter hasnt got a dishwasher. The games opened my eyes to betting on football (for the 100th time) isnt for me, dreading the new season but its made me want to stick to the rolling bet idea with Betdaq, probably start with €20 rather than €50, that way if it goes kaput ten times its only a loss of €200, alright over the whole season I suppose. All my talk about staying away from football though and I still had the bet typed in, bad times.

Been a good day after the test result left me a bit gutted. Still stand by letting all the green run but it did get me thinking I should try and keep my emotions detached from my trading. I get too involved sometimes, was right up for a world record chase and had no thought of going all green, when probably given the game situation I should have got at least maybe €100 out of it. Same when I'm betting on games involving The West Indies, loveable bunch of lazy fookers. My second favourite cricket team is England so happy their ahead in the series, but jesus 2.14 to win it is a joke price for me (not laying it though, not my style), two evenly matched teams, its a case of whoever turns up on the day and 2.14 to win with three games to go is short, very short. The Australians bowling mightnt be great but their batting is good and never fails twice in a game in my view, so its a case of Mitchell Johnson bowling within 10ft of the stumps next time around, it might be quite handy mate! And getting Brett Lee back. Nothing much between the teams, that whats made it so good. Next few grounds are result grounds so its going to be brilliant to watch either way!

Gutted I missed the 2/1 on Amir Khan to beat Ricky Hatton will William Hill today, fight has to happen in 2009 or you get your money back, that was a massive price for me, biggest I've seen in a while. Hope it happens though, Khan will win and will be over evens come fight time, would be a lot of interest and different views on it so hopefully it happens. Hatton seems a bit too stubborn to retire and the khan camp would be confident of beating him, and anyone who thinks Hatton has too much power, I remember the fight at Citys ground (cant remember the blokes name he was fighting) but he didnt have the power to knock him out and he wasnt throwing back much either. Khan on points easily for me. Weird that hes hated so much, I know hes big headed but show me a boxer that isnt, reading all the seething on the Betfair forum on Sunday morning was very funny though.

Messed about a bit on the horses today and it went well, won €30 from laying a horse in each race for about two hours, risky game but was only for a €50 liability each time. I was glad Definitive Edge won the bumper because it worked out I got more if he won, nice to lock in a profit early doors though. I can see the appeal of trading to many, not for me though no buzz in a close finish! If youre good at it, I presume its a gold mine. I just wouldnt be able to sit down all day to stare at the screen and then while the race is on youve no enjoyment of it at all, too much like working in an office for me. Need something to get the nerves going.

Cricket: EUR0.95 | Darts: EUR8.22 | Horse Racing: -EUR216.71 Total P&L: -EUR207.54

This type of thing is never good for the nerves though..

The Dream Is Over

Gutted its over before lunch, but Freddie Flintoff was immense. Dont know what to say really, I'm thankful Michael Clarke gave me the chance to get out for no loss, and even though I had the chance to go all green for €500 before a ball was bowled this morning I still stand by letting all the green run on Australia. The early wicket pretty much killed the chase today, but at 120-5 I had written off the €300 so I cant really be too gutted. Happy I'm improving with my test cricket trading and its no harm to keep putting myself in these positions. Obviously gutted they didnt do it, because I really believed they would going out last night and cant help thinking what could of been, but I like the England team and if there was no money on it I'd want them to win. But I always follow the cash!

Bit lost what to do today now the crickets over, its like getting out of prison or something. Its been a good five days though and I'm a euro better off than I was before Thursday! Thats €4 down over the two tests, for 10 days hard work and worry, I wouldnt have it any other way though.

Anyway, Bet365 were miles off with their price on Definitive Edge this morning, going 11/8. Hes a fair bit of a dodgy horse though so happy to go green on betfair and get around €30 either way, money for nothing sure. He should win though all things considered, its a weak bumper. Its not something I'd normally do to "arb" if you like, but just dont want a losing day after the test result really, just want to relax. I'll update the P&L later.

19/07/2009

Havent had a bet today bar the test match. And after giving up after the 5th wicket went down I'm delighted to be able to get rid of a red on England. But Michael Clarke, what a hero! Dont really want to talk about what might happen tomorrow because I might jinx it, but I said earlier all I wanted was one big partnership and I got it so I cant be too disappointed whatever happens now. Was unlucky a few wickets that were given out when they werent, but to be fair they looked "out" in real time, and Straussy said he caught it so what can you do. (He didnt though the lying fooker!) Not sure what to do with my book at the moment, going to sleep on it and then see how I feel. I could go €400 all green but I want to let it run.

My first bet was €200 on at 11.5, and through topping up at 25, I've nearly the same green I had with the first bet with no loss on the other results now. So I'm leaning more towards letting it run, I said all they have to do is bat time to win, but lose an early wicket tomorrow and I dont know that might be it. But its a chance to win €1,800 for nothing. Whatever about the Aussie lads being tired from batting, I'm tired from just clicking refresh. Out for a meal and a few drinks, my nerves are shot after seeing off the new ball with them this evening!







Just watching the end of the golf here and its very sad to see Tom Watson making a few mistakes, I'd say if I'd had a bet on it I would have laid the winner, no idea what price or how but I normally lay the winner in golf. Anyway, its Sunday so heres the screen shot for the week, been a quiet week again but happy I'm sticking to my main sports and thats been the most pleasing thing, bit gutted the mix up with Betfair on the Yorks game makes it a losing week though.

I Honestly Cannot Believe England Declared

Wow. This early? They havent batted Australia out of the game, so it cant really be a draw unless it rains, Aussies bat out the two days and then they'd be close to winning. Anyway rightly or wrongly, I've just had €200 on them at 11.5 on Betfair after that wicket, its one of those things everyone will think differently about. They only need one good partnership to get close to this and the market will panic, just done the bet so still not sure what price to jump ship at, having said that they could lose another two early wickets and that will be that. At 11.5 it was worth €200 for me regardless, England have opened the door, now its just up to the Aussies to walk through.

Got caught out on the session runs yesterday, KP and Ravi going absolutely nowhere, I had over 100 runs and it was looking good before they arrived! Got out of it for a €100 loss, which was OK because I had €300 on it, bit seething watching them let everything go by! The GAA went really went, Gooch has scored 13 points over the whole championship so far and Ladbrokes were going evens under 4.5! My eyes lit up. Hes the free taker so a few sightly nervous moments as Silgo gave away a few frees in the second half but hes so out of form he missed them, sitters. Feel a bit sorry for him because he was the best player in Ireland two years ago. This is the worse Kerry team I've seen in my lifetime too, its weird watching them struggle.

Just watched the Khan fight this morning, was very impressed, he was very good. Used Betdaq to back him, not sure whether to take out the money and put it back into betfair, but when the football season starts back I want to have all my football bets on Betdaq, start with €50 and keep it rolling type of thing. Just to stop me having €2,000 on United at 1.19 or something like that, will put up all the bets on the side and see how I get on. Its more of a discipline thing to stop me betting too big. Also delighted I havent had a bet on the golf this week!

Cricket: -EUR95.33 | Gaelic Games: EUR38.38 Total P&L: -EUR56.95

England Bat - I'm confused

No matter what Sky Sports says it was the right decision to bat, no cloud cover, suns out, flat pitch and batting looks easy today. Their spinner has a broken finger and Johnson cant bowl a line and length to save his life. Now they have to set a score, a proper score 550+ by lunch tomorrow at the latest.

England are 1.6, Australia 14 and the draw 3.25.

Dont want to lay England because they could post a massive total here and then bat the Aussies out to the game, so its then a two runner market and you might as well be backing the draw as laying England, on the other side of that dont want to back them because they do have a history of giving away their wickets, then that brings in Australia winning. The collapse is always on, but I'd rather not bet on it.

The draw is a funny one, with the flat pitch and the market being so scared of weather forecasts it could be a brilliant trade, but as an outright bet at the moment I wouldnt say its a very good one with three days left and into the second innings already, England will score quickly and most likely declare. The draw bet will need England batting too long and then Australia playing for a draw, the odds are basically set fair until something happens. Sitting on my hands but will be looking to get on the session runs this afternoon, hopefully 100 or 110 will be over evens on Betfair, if 80 is 1/2 or something I'd back that too. Match odds very hard to call at the moment.

Betfair Mobile And The 2nd Ashes Test

Anyone that hasnt used Betfair mobile I actually cant recommend it enough! I think its brilliant, although I thought it was free to use the first time I used it but the second time its cost a few cents but not enough to notice really. Amazing tool to have at the races, it might be my phone that makes it so good (Tocco Ultra) but I'm quite impressed with it anyway. 5 seconds refresh and single click if you want too, it almost works better than the main site for me, very helpful at Leopardstown last night. Really want to give in running a go from the course, but would be a small bit worried about clicking wrong buttons etc but it has to be tried at least once, sure youre 7 or so seconds ahead, I remember sitting in the stands at Navan one day watching ATR while watching in front of me, the delay is massive. I know SIS would be ahead of ATR but you'd still be ahead of SIS, we'll see anyway! This is my next money making scheme.

Anyway on to the Ashes, test cricket does itself no favours at times, why agree to play under lights and then go off because of the shadows. Do they think there wont be any when they agreed to play under lights? I dont blame the players for actually taking the light or the umpires for offering it to them, its the fools who come up with the idea of playing under the lights, surely they must of known the red ball is pretty much unplayable under lights, and youve a full house sitting there thinking they'll get another hours play and they dont. They should leave the lights out of it totally. Rant over!

Havent got involved in the match odds yet but will be starting from tomorrow morning, at the moment England are 1.55, Australia 10 and the draw 3.8, and I've pretty much no idea what to do at the moment. On the face of it England are looking a good bet at 1.55 but if Australia were to get a few runs in the morning and not follow on that price is only going one way and thats out, it cant come in much while England are batting surely.

Then you have the Aussies at 10, they might seem out of the game to some people but actually far from it. Suppose they follow on, and supposedly this pitch will get easier to bat on, they could have England chasing 250 or 300 on the last day and England collapse, or an even better possibility for them is England batting next and posting a low total, so just say Australia are chasing 450 on the last day, they wont be as high as 10 to chase that on this pitch if the sun is shining and the pitch is slow. I'd never back them now but I wouldnt lay 10.5 either, thats too high given what I've just said could happen.

So that leaves the draw and the draw backers, who I have to say after watching the market for most of the day are a fairly insane bunch of people. Some of the price movements today were mad, during the rain break the price went from 1.74 to 1.85 and then a wicket or two would fall and it made no difference! Sure enough it would go out a few ticks but it would be flying straight back in, it was the hardest thing not to lay it at 2.8 at one stage when Jimmy was bowling. But right now, the draw is a big runner in the market, the backers were just taking poor value today, the pitch is supposed to die on the last two days and I remember the Saffers batted out two and a half days here not too long ago when they had to follow on, so its not out of the question Australia could do the same. The price is a bit high looking at the moment should England bat next, not saying it will be a draw but England batting next would surely bring the price in a bit.

All in all, I've no idea. But I'll have a fair idea what I'm doing when I find out whats happening with the following on business. Messed about on the horses a bit while watching the cricket, if I was an 8 year old working in China I'd probably have made more money.

Horse Racing: EUR14.65 Total P&L: EUR14.65

16/07/2009

Played things small today and got back into the winning groove, not hard to see there'll be plenty of runs on the Lords pitch so session runs went well, still not getting involved in the match odds jusy yet though. Just about to head out to Leopardstown for the evening so hopefully Johnny can bang in a few winners for us, looking forward to seeing how Viscount Nelson gets on.

Cricket: EUR45.43 Total P&L: EUR45.43

15/07/2009

Some days everything goes pear shaped. What a disaster today was. I've been away from betfair most of the day and wasnt aware of the problems the site is having, theres a service announcement about it, the markets arent loading for some people etc. But every bet I "tried" (done!) on the cricket, the whole page reloaded, but the bet didnt appear on the screen. I entered it three times thinking it hasnt gone through, but after half an hour on the phone to Betfair their saying is was going through I just didnt know it (as it wasnt coming up in my bets!).

Anyway, wanted to lay Yorkshire for €500 at 1.45, ended up doing it three times with a liability ending up at just under €750! By the time I closed firefox, did the normal thing deleting cookies etc, open back up the market to see what I've gone and done, horrible feeling. Whats worse is the price was moving down fast too, I got out of the bet thankfully, all red for €200 is OK considering I suppose. It was a losing trade anyway, I've just made it worse x3, tried to make it a bit better but actually gone and made it worse again for an extra €50, so €250 all red, the game hasnt finished but I've a massive headache and just going to give up for the day.

Just watched the daily horse finish 4th after backing him each way. That hasnt helped matters, or my mood. Not a happy man. Thinking about having a week off, or a few days at least. And also giving up the daily horse thing, make it more select so I dont have to do it everyday. I'll put up something on the side everyday but not back it, only when I post. Wasnt too keen on todays card and just a bit gutted he finsihed 4th so it wont be everyday now it'll just be when I like the look of the card. I'll see how I feel in the morning as regards the time off, I'm proper pissed off right now and have that really fed up feeling, will probably feel different when I calm down.

Anyway no P&L line as it hasnt finished but heres the screen shot..

Killarney Wednesday (Currently +18.83pts)

Woeful card today for betting on. Not much to pick from but I've gone for Tarkari each way in the 8-00. The ground will be heavy down there and at least I know this fella will go on it, hes fit from hurdling and will like the trip. It'll probably feel like 2M in this ground and thats no problem either, hes a high cruising speed and a turn of foot over hurdles on this type of ground so today should be OK. I've gone each way because its such a poor card and didnt have any real choices, he has to give weight away to Anak and Moon Indigo, but all things being well Tarkari should finish near enough to be placed hopefully! The last 4 horses I've picked have lost and they give me this card to pick a winner. There isnt much form to go on over this type of trip and ground, I'm happy enough with backing a hurdler over the flat horses here.

Just seen Sky Sports are reporting Freddie Flintoff is going to retire from test cricket (after the Ashes?). Still 50/50 whether to believe the story as it started with the line "The Sun has reported.." We'll see if its true or not later anyway, massive blow to England if it is. As for myself today, I'm pretty busy and staying out of the house while the racing is on after yesterdays performance, hopefully the cricket wont get rained off again tonight.

Tarkari 8-00 Killarney, 1pt E/W @ 4/1 with Paddy Power.

14/07/2009

Poor enough day, and all my fault. Messing about playing games, doing quizzes and slagging people off on facebook inbetween each race - completely no focus on the racing and the P&L shows that. Have to concentrate on Betfair at all times, but I just wasnt at the races mentally today. And after the crickets been rained off, I've decided to call it a day and settle down to watch Edward Scissorhands with the girlfriend, I used to shit myself at this movie when I was a kid!

Poor result on the daily horse too, kicking myself for not laying off when I seen how bad the ground was. Its near impossible for me to lay off something at 4/9 when I've got 11/8 about it, I've got the value so I let it ride. However, there was serious ground concerns today and I knew it before the race, I was here looking at it thinking he wont go on it. Still let the bet run though. Few people said it was a poor ride, it wasnt. No complaints.

Massive shock today with the news Sea The Stars isnt running in the King George! Uh oh wait, whats the distance? 1M4F, no surprises there then. Fantastic horse but run him again over 1M4F Mr Oxx I want to see him tested. York looks to be a walkover unless AP comes up with some plan, maybe run 7 or 8 and box him in, but then Lydia Hislop will go raaawwrr and eat him if that happens. Dangerous game this team tactics, Johnny might get boxed in himself and get a 4 day ban for not trying like. By the way, dont be surprised if Sea The Stars doesnt turn up at Leopardstown either, and if he bottles that, seriously all of Ballydoyle will be seething. I want a crack at him with Fame And Glory, even if it is on Sea The Stars terms.

Horse Racing: -EUR48.43 Total P&L: -EUR48.43

Killarney Tuesday (Currently +20.83pts)

I've just spent the last half hour writing out why Universal Truth was a certainty and how I didnt even bother to look at any of the other races. And now hes a non runner, fantastic!

Anyway, I've already backed Francisco Goya away from the challenge as its very well fancied tonight and is better than the mark hes been given, so I'll switch to him and have 2pts on. I was having 6pts on Universal Truth. Oxxes always come on for their first run of the season so I cant say I'm too scared of Dabirana, Francisco Goya gets weight off her too and Joeys claim adds even more to that. Small worry might be the ground, if it rains from now until the race it'll be heavy and I wouldnt be as confident. Still happy enough with my pick today even if it wasnt my first choice, I've missed the boat a bit with the price for the blog though.

Francisco Goya 6-00 Killarney, 2pts win @ 11/10 with Paddy Power.

13/07/2009

Too busy last night to post but it was a good day yesterday. The Pro40 is back, a competition I love, 40 overs is just about perfect for trading for a few hours. As with everything in life the more you enjoy doing something the more likely you are to be successful at it, but even more importantly I'm more relaxed about trading it and that helps so much I dont even have a word to explain. With 20/20 a four or a six and the market is going insane, I'm always thinking I'm under pressure because the game is so short while in Pro40 I always feel I have time to look after my position, I'm more confident and trade without fear. I'm gutted its the last year of it.

The one thing that helps me the most is not trading while the first innings are on, I've discovered this over the last few months, but in England its more important because you dont know what a good score is. In the second innings, I've a total to work towards and know exactly how many overs are left etc. When I'm taking a position first innings, I'm guessing whats a good score and guessing can the other team chase it down, more I cut out the guessing the better it is really. Yesterday the spreads were going 240 on innings runs, they got 263 so you'd think that was a massive score, the average score was 218 at the ground too, so you'd be lumping on the team who batted first. If you dont bet on the first innings you dont have to worry about all that stuff, you just worry about how the team chasing are going along.

The most important factor of Pro40 markets is lumpy. Some bloke whos a huge trader, he controls the market with bets any size going from 20K to over 100K sometimes. If I see he has the wrong price, take him on and he gets lucky, I have to accept a loss, I accept that. The thing I like about this market so much is I understand everything is has and accept it for it is, during the test last week I was looking at the screen going cross eyed sometimes over what to do. But lumpy is like the rest of us just with a bigger bank, he'll drive prices down and up and you have to forget him, forget the money, focus on the match and what you think is the right price. And always green out! The swings are huge, I'd never back a bowling team during the second innings at under 1.3, its crazy, one four or six and the market is flying out, obviously its not a lay sometimes because maybe theres tail enders batting but its not a back ever under any circumstances for me. Its just one of those markets I love.

Won a small few quid in running the horses, not enough the cover the daily horse loss though. What happened are Ayr was a joke, simple as.

Cricket: EUR159.30 | Horse Racing: -EUR24.10 Total P&L: EUR135.20

Killarney Monday (Currently +22.83pts)

Betfair really gets on my nerves sometimes, every time I went to put in my bet this morning someone undercuts it one tick lower with €4, and then cancels when I cancel. Whats the point of them! Anyway, fairly hard card tonight and I thought I had a good bet picked out at around 6/1 but the ground has totally gone against him, Archie Boy in the 7-40.

I can see why the bookies want to take on Royal County Star, the trip looks about a mile too short for him. But theres not much to beat him really, Knight Legend hasnt ran a good race in ages and you'd be backing him in hope more than in confidence. I thought Archie Boy each way at 6/1 was a fantastic bet, but looking through his form it looks like he needs good or even firm ground to be at his best, he wont get that tonight.

I've gone for On Borrowed Wings in the bumper an hour later at 8-40, happy enough to take on the second favourite Split Ear even though its well fancied. It looks a two horse race. Split Ear hasnt got the greatest form ever, his last three runs havent been good at all and probably the best of them was over 2M4F, he was beaten over 20L at The Curragh in a bumper over 2M. On Borrowed Wings has already won on this type of ground so I've no worries there, hes probably only an average type of horse but he should still be good enough for Split Ear. Nina Carberry riding is a big plus too if it comes to a close finish, I'd be hoping she doesnt have the horse too far back though, be near enough to the lead all the way around.

Its not great racing today but I'm going to try in running until half four or so, hopefully get something matched this time!

On Borrowed Wings 8-40 Killarney, 2pts win @ 10/11 on Betfair.

12/07/2009

Fantastic day today even though I lost, great result pulling back the cricket, thats all in the last post. Apart from that nothing much happened over the last two days really, its been a fairly quiet week on Betfair to be honest. The Pro40 is back tomorrow so things should liven up a bit. Lost on the session runs this morning on the last ball, was gutted, had €200 green below the line and €450 over it, €36 for the 10 runs inbetween and it came in inbetween! Should of known it would happen really, I have every chance to go green too.

Won a few quid on the GAA, but as a Kildare fan I'm still seething with the free the ref gave Dublin with two minutes to go in front of the posts. Still cant see why he gave it. But credit to Dublin they upped their level in the second half, I still hate them though, Kildare played well but whatever happened at half time they didnt come out the same team that went in.

Massive reaction to what Frank Spencer did in the Oaks, Fran Berry is good craic and he was only having a laugh with him. But at the same time I can understand why some people dont like it, personally at the time I thought it was a bit childish from a champion jockey but I dont see anything wrong with it really, if I was in his position I wouldnt have done it but anyway everyones different. Just win the race and to hell with showing off, although I remember I really loved it when Paul Carberry did it at Leopardstown a couple of years ago, I was a teenager then and now I'm in my twentys, weird how your view on things change. I'm getting old. It pissed rain all day as well.

Last two days -
Cricket: -EUR33.10 | Gaelic Games: EUR55.41 Total P&L: EUR22.31

As I said its been a really quiet week on Betfair and I'm in profit a touch this week, the tennis is still in the weeks screen shot but that was Wimbledown last week so this week has been better than it looks, last Sunday did a bit of damage I think with a big horse loss too. Hopefully next week there'll be more things on to bet on, said like an addict. I've also joined 'The Paul Collingwood Appreciation Society' on facebook. He is my new hero, he is the daddy! Who said test cricket is boring? Er, me, two days ago actually. Ah life.

Growing Myself A Monty Panesar Beard

Sir Monty, what a legend for hanging on, shows how much hard work hes put into his batting in the nets. But the real star was Paul "THE WALL" Collingwood, my new hero! Cant say enough about him, he held everything together when others around him were falling apart.

As for my trading, I said in a few posts back I was in a woeful position, all red for €300 and said I really shouldnt bet on the first three days, well I was right. I've traded the last two days very well to only lose a fiver! Its came with a lot of luck but I'll take it, wasnt expecting play on Saturday because of the forecast, just happened to flick on the market and seen the draw trading at 1.25, then switch on sky sports and they were playing! Laid that to have €500 red the draw and around €230 green the Aussies, then today managed to lay the Aussies to come out level. Fantastic considering I was looking at a €300 loss, and more importantly I think I've learned how to trade test matches for myself, that being sit on my hands until the first innings are over or were into the last two days. I'm also fully aware that I change all red books into a good result about two out of ten times.

Couple of points -
1) All the bowlers from both sides arent great.
2) English batsmen have to improve whats in their head, a lot.
3) KP shouldnt get as much stick as he does.
4) When I was laying a certain line on the session runs, Swann annoyed me the most and I'd drop him if I had to pick between him and another bowler.
5) If England cant take 20 wickets they cant win (obviously!) so they'll have to improve, didnt even look dangerous.
6) Massive blow not to win for the Aussies, but they are the better team.
7) I'm calling my first born boy Monty.
8) Cook donest cut it for me at the top of the order, dont know what it is.
9) Never trust a weather forecast.
10) Pitch was like a road and England batsmen are hanging on, cant be right.
11) Ponting is a good captain, better than Strauss.
12) Johnson looks overrated to me.
13) Hauritz is no mug.
14) Broad and Anderson arent too scary for the Australia batsmen.
15) Australia completely underrated by the English press.
16) Wouldnt be too keen on being on England at under 2/1 again, but they normally start slow to that remains to be seen.
17) Matt Prior played one of the worse ever innings I've seen in the circumstances today.
18) Should have backed 0-0 at 100/1 with these bowlers.
19) Paul Collingwood is a legend.
20) How come England block better in 20/20? Only messing.

The Curragh Sunday (Currently +24.83pts)

Pretty busy day tomorrow and going out for dinner tonight so I'll post now, have my bet done already anyway. Have to say I'm not that impressed with the card for an Oaks day, apart from the first race and the big one nothing really interests me too much. Theyve been far from clever with their race times too, Dublin v Kildare kicks off at 2-00 and all the good races are on while the match is on too, I thought the the match was at 4-00 and I could do the both, they'll find it very difficult to attract any sort of crowd even if it is only €10 in.

Dont agree with the horses Johnnys picked tomorrow in the 2-05 and 3-05, after Beethoven lost in Naas I said I wouldnt back him again, that race was far easier than this one, and to pick an unraced two year old on this ground seems a bit odd given AP's always need the run. I know Black Quartz disappointed during the week but he'd still be my idea of the winner over a furlong extra on testing ground his stamina should be a massive help, I'll watch tomorrow and see what happens. I think hes picked Beethoven over Air Chief Marshal because of the ground but we'll see how they get on. Two races I wouldnt be too keen on having a big bet on.

The big one is at 3-40 and it'll be on just about the same time as the match finishes, The Curragh have really messed that one up. Anyway, with the ground the way it is at the moment and more rain on the way I'm quite happy to take on the front two in the betting, English pair Sariska and Midday. While the Oxx filly Beauty O Gwaun will absolutely love it, but her run didnt scream Oaks winner the last day at Naas, I'm happy to look beyond her as well, and then after the front three in the betting there isnt much else to worry about on form. I just have a sneaky feeling Roman Empress will run a massive race tomorrow. Johnny looked after her here the last day when she raced against the older fillies and it was more of a prep run for this, at the start of the season the Epsom Oaks was the aim but she need a bit more time to strengthen up and that went out the window, I think AP has been aiming her at this race all season since. While shes won on good to firm ground in Limerick (more easily than the distance suggests), I think she'll love the soft (or heavy by race time) ground tomorrow and at 33/1 with Paddy Power shes worth a poke each way for me.

Obviously I'm hoping she finds a bit of improvement to trouble the big two but theres worse 33/1 shots knocking about, she'll either run a cracker and finish in the first three or she'll finish last, its one of those. Chirkova will most likely make the running (Roses For The Lady might be there to do that for the Oxx camp too) and I think Roman Empress will really enjoy the stamina test on soft ground, then you can basically write off Belle Chose, Rory Anna and Destined For Fame. Grace OMalley has a lot to find on form and Oh Goodness Me has questions to answer about the going and trip, so I'll take them on and say its a four horse race paying first three places and Roman Empress is 33/1. I fully understand though that people could say the exact same about Roman Empress as I've said about Grace OMalley and Oh Goodness Me. However, shes sightly unexposed though, forget the last run for a couple of reasons, it was against older horses and it turned into a sprint and she couldnt live with them, Johnny accepted it fairly quickly riding just hands and heels but I think he learned she needs a fast pace that day and she'll get that tomorrow.

I'm also happy to forget the run at Leopardstown because she really just didnt turn up and it was at a time when AP's horses werent running well at the start of the season, it was her first run in a while and she needed it badly, he gave her a nice break afterwards so he wasnt happy with her after that race either. She ran a really good race in Navan on soft to heavy ground on her first run of her career and won at Limerick when she came back from her break. Those are two good runs and with good enough excuses for the bad ones for me she could be anything, we'll find out tomorrow anyway. All things considered shes the forgotten horse of the race, I'm more than happy with 33/1 each way, just hoping things go to plan and she runs a good race now.

Roman Empress 3-40 The Curragh, 1pt E/W @ 33/1 with Paddy Power.

The Curragh Saturday (Currently +26.83pts)

Small bit confused this morning because everyones been talking about the downpour were suppose to have today and most of last night, woke up this morning and the ground is dry. Although we did have a bit of rain yesterday, and today is meant to be awful, but still guessing what the ground will be like. I'd guess its on the slow side of good at the moment, I'm hoping it rains for today and tomorrow. Not a really good card today it has to be said and it took longer than usual to pick something out, the girlfriend as the day off work so I've decided to have a day in with her and not go to the races.

Assuming this rain comes (or even if it doesnt), Jumbajukiba looks to have a great chance in the 4-00 and I've gone for him at 7/2. Never been to keen on Mad About You and happy to take her on as favourite with something, Jumbajukiba loves this track winning five times here and most importantly its at Group 3 level today, when he steps up in class hes not the same force and I've took him on a good few times but this looks a good chance for him today. If it rains he'll go off favourite and I'd fancy him to be a good thing if we do get the expected downpour, if it doesnt it wouldnt be too much of a negative, it wouldnt stop him for winning anyway, he'll bounce off in front and ask to the others to catch him. Hes been beaten by some very good horses the last two days so I'd have no issue with his form, its a hard days racing and hes my most likely winner.

Another two horses that were on my list were Devoted To You at 2-30 and Famous Name at 4-30. Dont feel comfortable with backing Famous Name at 1/2 over 1M1F if the rain doesnt arrive, Weld said they dont want the ground tacky either so I'll just pass on that one. Dont know much about the English horse Staying On, but if the 8 run and you can get 5/1 it looks an each way bet to nothing, I dont know enough about the horse to back him though. And Devoted To You in the first relies on the weather too, cant say the trip is perfect either but its a weak race she should be winning really. Overall, its all guess work today about the ground and the weather, I cant say I like it. Happy enough with my bet on Jumbajukiba given hes the biggest price of the three I fancied.

Spent an hour last night looking around the GAA markets and I liked a few bets but havent done anything yet. Monaghan v Derry no goalscorer at 7/2 with William Hill, Paddy Power are going 13/5 what a joke of a price! Have two hours to look at Derrys form but Monaghan arent big goalscorers and are happy to tick over with points, but you'd be hoping its a close match and the teams are happy just to take points, will have to give it some more thought given the price is a bit short, Monaghan not to score a goal is around 5/6 that might be alright. If the weather is very bad, I thought Longford were getting too many points on the handicap at +10, Kerry are a bit lazy and are likely to ease off if their ahead, but that said Longford are a poor side. Westmeath v Meath is the battle of the rejects, two very poor teams, Westmeath not to score a goal caught my eye at evens, as did Longford not to score a goal at 5/6 (but that goes against my handicap bet if you think about it). I'll probably end up not doing any of these bets but its what I fancy anyway, if I was to pick one it'd be Monaghan v Derry no goalscorer. Wont be betting much today though.

Jumbajukiba 4-00 The Curragh, 2pts win @ 7/2 with BlueSquare.

10/07/2009

Had an alright day, lost €100 on Emperor Claudius in Newmarket and apart from that everything went pretty much as planned. Might have won more on the cricket had I kept my bottle on the session runs lines but to win over €100 by going all green each time isnt bad, if things went pear shaped I'd be annoyed like. It was just a small regret in the evening because it rained, I went all green as the covers were coming off but then less than two minutes later they came back on and I was kind of "ah why did I go and do that."

Still finding it hard to make much money in running on the horses and as a rule I normally dont do weekends, more times than not Betfair goes kaput or is too slow, plus theres other sport on too. Got €75 off Ladbrokes off the daily horse so the horse P&L isnt as bad as it looks on Betfair. I'm also seething Seamie got four days for his ride on Drumbeat, alright it wasnt the best but look back at the Irish 2000G and you'd have called him the winner two furlongs out, I said the horse was dodgy earlier today. They all let the leader go off too far in front, its not like Drumbeat was making lengths and lengths when Seamie pulled him out.

Went all red in the test too, GSM the draw I reckon, unless England bottle it batting for a draw on the last day, but for that to happen Australia would have to post a big enough score and with the weather forecast tomorrow it doesnt look like they'll get the time, anyway who cares I'm all red they can do what they like.

Cricket: EUR145.33 | Horse Racing: -EUR83.86 Total P&L: EUR61.47

Gowran Park Friday (Currently +23.83pts)

Running a bit late today, and its a fantastic days racing, delighted I havent missed the boat with prices on some horses and it was a horrible feeling checking sky sports to see if the Aussies lost a wicket or not, never sleeping in when I've open positions again.

Over the moon with the price I got on my pick today, At First Sight in the 6-05, Ladbrokes were going 6/4 when it was 2.3 to lay on Betfair. Even this early in his career, you'd have to say if he didnt win this it would be more than disappointing, given the fact he ran a very eye-catching race in what in my mind was the best maiden run in Ireland this year. He wasnt the stable first string but made a lot of late headway and it must be a massive plus that he steps up an extra furlong today. The reason why I say it'd be so disappointing if he got beaten is the opposition, he has more scope for improvement than Mutaraakim who finished 6th in a weaker maiden at The Curragh, and the main danger is Cool Marble, but hes basically raced against the same horses in his two runs at Leopardstown and looked one paced in his last one. He was totally friendless on his first run too which doesnt really happen if the Weld camp think much of it, hes not a bad horse but at the same time hes not a great horse and would most likely be running in handicaps in the future. AP's always come on for a run and he should be good enough for these really, was very close to having 4pts because of the Ladbrokes price but stopped myself, bit of discipline does no harm.

Over in the Newmarket, my favourite Ballydoyle two year old runs, I absolutely love Emperor Claudius. Still seething he didnt win in Royal Ascot because he was given far too much to do, but Johnnys back on today and he should have him nearer to the front, he was ridden that way when he won in Fairyhouse. His form in Ireland is rock solid and ties into more than a few winners over here, the 7F trip will be perfect at this stage of his career but he reminds so much of Gaints Causeway in that he'd win a battle if it comes down to two in the final furlong, he'll always give you his best. Have to say I dont know much about the opposition but I'd be gutted if he didnt win today, or at least finish a very good 2nd. Its miles and miles off but hes my idea of the 2010 Derby winner already! He isnt as flashy as a Rip Van Winkle or a Steinbeck, hes a bit like Fame And Glory, he just goes about his business without fuss and gets the job done. I'll have a tenner on J J The Jet Plane as well today, no more than a small feeling he'll run well.

While back in Ireland theres a few horses I want to see today in Cork, Pirate Ship in the 6-15, still confused how Johnny got him beat in a four horse race that last time. Essex finally gets into a race fairly treated in the 7-20, although I couldnt back him until he starts winning again. Buck Barrow is a massive talking horse this morning in the bumper, but Flat Out should give him a good test. And back in Gorwan, if Drumbeat doesnt win the 7-05 he might just be heading to be the next Red Rock Canyon, even though hes already won a race. Cracking days racing everywhere today.

At First Sight 6-05 Gowran Park, 2pts win @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes.

09/07/2009

Not much happening today as regards the P&L, just a quick update on my position on the 1st test, which is awful. After being heavily on England first up, it became pretty obvious the England attack is toothless, it doesnt bode well for having a chance of winning this test, or indeed any test in the seris. After a few trades I've managed to have my book like I've backed Australia at a touch under evens, equal red England and the draw. So I can only hope they post a good score for the time being, but will be getting out of it at some stage.

One thing I did learn today is I havent got the patience or the foresight for betting on test cricket over the whole five days. In the future I'll have to sit on my hands until maybe the last two days, or the last two innings. I was bored senseless watching the afternoon session today, one wicket in four hours I think someone said, and the England bowlers didnt even look dangerous. Whats scary is theyve looked good against The West Indies and it now looks like Windies were in their 'couldnt be bothered' mode and made England look good, I dont know to be honest I've been guessing at stuff all day. One of the main reasons I love cricket is because I'm fairly good at feeling the momentum, but today the 1st session was Englands, 2nd was draw backers, and 3rd was coming around to the fact Australia are in a fantastic position here and most probably England will be batting for a draw, and are they the most reliable team? Well no, I wouldnt like my whole bank on them batting for a draw for a day and a half.

At one stage I lumped on the draw, and was looking at €1,100 red England and Australia, €200 green the draw. Then I'm sat here thinking, what happens if the Aussies get a lead of 150 first innings (looks odds on now they do), England collapse second innings post say 250 and Australia are left to get 100-ish to win on the last day. I struggle so much with the time frame of test betting. Quickly got out of that bet at the same price, its looking certain I'll lose on the market but how much remains to be seen, I'd be delighted if I could keep it to around the €100 mark. At least I know what to do for the rest of the tests anyway, its just getting out of this one without too much damage thats the problem now.

Had a go at in running on the horses as planned but ended up losing most of what I won off the daily horse, very frustrating. But I think it was me being stupid rather than the market being too fast like other times, I also got a tip for a 16/1 winner in leopardstown that I didnt back, because I'm just that fantastic! It was one of those days I had to just turn off the computer and walk away, so went to see public enemies this evening, thought it was very good, I'd actually go again.

Cricket: -EUR7.38 | Horse Racing: EUR11.00 Total P&L: EUR3.62

Better than losing!

Leopardstown Thursday (Currently +22.6pts)

Hard enough card tonight with plenty of handicaps and no group or listed races, Leopardstown have normally put on good cards in the evenings but this year their standards have come down a lot and their aiming at the concert drinking type crowd lately rather than racing people, their main downfall is charging too much at €20 to get in. Think about it, its the same price to get into The Curragh on both Guineas days, and its only €10 into the Oaks on Sunday, €20 for this type of meeting is a joke.

Famous in the first at 6-00 was my pick, stepping back down in class after finsihing 4th in a listed race at The Curragh, she ran alright that day and was only overtook in the last furlong. She should have no trouble winning tonight really, she has the added plus of an extra furlong as well and that will help her a lot. Rosa Muscosa looks the main danger, but shes no real star, she was really unfancied first time out which would make you think the Bolgers dont think that much of her, maybe she needed the run but they know when they have a good one. And she looked an average horse on her last run too, no real change of gear over this trip here. All things considered, even though famous is a short price at 8/13 it would be massively disappointing if she couldnt win this, she'll probably never get a better chance to win a race.

Dont really fancy anything over in Newmarket, while England are going well in the first test, I'm on them massively for now at 2.5, the pitch is turning already and theyve a brilliant score on board. Just hoping the weather stays away.

Famous 6-00 Leopardstown, 2pts win at 8/13 on Betfair.